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Ichimoku日本云Ichimoku日本云 Ichimoku日本云(一目平衡表)使用方法详细介绍 ) 2009-09-18 This indicator is based on the 4 time intervals and because of that we may see the 5 different line: - Tenkan-sen is the average value of the price for the first time interval calculated as sum of maximum...

Ichimoku日本云
Ichimoku日本云 Ichimoku日本云(一目平衡表)使用方法详细介绍 ) 2009-09-18 This indicator is based on the 4 time intervals and because of that we may see the 5 different line: - Tenkan-sen is the average value of the price for the first time interval calculated as sum of maximum and minimum for this period of time devided by 2; - Kijun-sen is the average value of the price for the second time interval; - Senkou Span A is the middle of interval between two above mentioned lines (Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen) shifted onward on the value of the second time interval; - Senkou Span B is the average value of the price for the third time interval shifted onward on the value of the second time interval; - Chinkou Span is the closing price of the current candle shifted back on the value of the second time interval. 日本云(一目平衡表)技术指标的定义以市场趋势,支持体系,和抗级为特征。该指标通常发 出购买和卖出信号。这个指标在日图表和周图表中的作用最为明显。 当定义参数空间时,我们使用四个不同长度的时间段,组成这这个指标的每个单一曲线的数 值都是以这些时间段为基础的: TENKAN线表示了在第一时段里的平均价格水平,取这个时间段最大和最小值,然后除以二。 KIJUN线是第二个时间段里的平均价格水平。 SENKOU 通道A由第二时间段所推动向前运动 的前两条曲线之间的距离 SENKOU 通道B由第二时间段所推动向前运动的第三时间段里的 平均价格水平 CHINKOU 通道表示了由第二时间段所推动向后运动的当前柱的收市价格。SHENKOU 曲线之间 的距离被赋予了红色,也被称作“云”。如果价格在这些曲线之间,那么这个市场会被认为 是“非趋势性”的。随后,“云”的边缘形成了支持体系和抗级。 如果价格高于“云”,那么它的上线形成第一支持体系,它的第二条曲线形成第二条支持体 系。 如果价格低于“云”,则它的下线形成第一抗级,它的上线形成第二抗级。 假如 CHINKOU 通道曲线以自下而上的方式在图表内运动,我们说购买的信号到来了;如果它以自 上而下的方式运动,那么卖出的信号又产生了。 KIJUN线被作为市场运动的指标。如果价格高于这个指标的话,那么它将继承增加。倘若价 格沿着这条曲线运动的话,那么进一步的趋势变化是非常有可能的。KIJUN线路的另外一个 作用就是发出各种信号。当KIJUN线路作自下而上的运动时,就产生了购买的信号,反之, 则产生卖出的信号。 TENKAN线被作为市场趋势的一个指标。如果这条曲线增长或降低,那么我们说市场趋势就 是存在的。当它在水平方向运动时,就表明市场已经进入了某一个通道。 The space between Senkou lines is the cloud. And we have 3 cases: - if the price is inside the cloud (it means it is between Senkou lines) we have non trading market. In other words we are not trading inside the cloud. And Senkou lines are the support and resistance lines in this case. - if the price is above the cloud the first Senkou line is the first support and the second one is the second support respectively. - if the price is below the cloud the first line (first from the price line) is the first resistance and the second one is the second resistance. 我们有三种情况: 如果价格在Senkou云里面,我们没有交易市场。换句话说,我们不再云内交易。Senkou的 上下轨就是支撑和阻力 如果价格在云上,第一条Senkou线是第一支撑,第二条Senkou线 是第二相对支撑 如果价格在云下,第一条Senkou线是第一阻力,第二条Senkou线是第二 相对阻力 , If Chinkou Span line is crossing the price curve from below to upward we have the signal to buy and from above to below - signal to sell.Kijun-sen is used as market trend indicator line (main line): - if the price is above Kijun-sen line we have uptrend (most probably); - if the price curve is crossing the Kijun-sen line the trend will be reversed (most probably as well). Tenkan-sen line is crossing Kijun-sen line: - from up to down - sell signal; - from down to up - buy signal. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen line are used to estimate the trendable and flat market. If one of the line is going by the horizontal way we have flat (non-trading zones). Besides Tenkan-sen is used as the reversed line to estimate the trend. 如果Chinkou线由下向上穿越价格曲线就是买进信号,反之就是卖出信号。 Kijun-sen作为市场的趋势指标线(主线): -如果价格在Kijun-sen线上面,最有可能就是向上的趋势 -如果价格曲线穿越了Kijun-sen线,趋势最有可能就反转了 Tenkan-sen线穿越Kijun-sen线: -从上向下穿越就是卖出信号 -从下向上穿越就是买入信号 Tenkan-sen和Kijun-sen线用来判定是有趋势的市场还是振荡市场。如果这两个线之一横 着在走,我们就可以判断是振荡市场,不宜交易。另外,Tenkan-sen被用来作为反转线来 判断趋势。 Thus the Ichimoku indicator looks like trading system: all the lines are the middle of the price range for the some period of time and we may estimate the bullish and bearish trend and so on. And all the lines are re-acted instantly on the creating the new max or minimum within period of time - no delay. In other words the Ishimoru indicator is of the complex trading system. Well. But why we are not using this indicator right now? Because some people say: “the settings of the indicator (9 26 52) are valid for the weekly charts only; and not for the forex; this indicator will not work on an other timeframes with the default settings; so it is necessary to have different settings for the different timeframes. But anyway there are many people who are using this indicator with some good results. And they are using exactly default settings (9 26 52). On the next few posts we will describe more about it but I want to say that if you are trading using Ishimoru indicator you will have 1 trade for 2 weeks on D1 or 1 trade per 2 days in intra-day trading. And most probably you will be in profit in 4 of 5 cases (it means 75%). 所以说,Ichimoku日本云(一目表)看起来想个交易系统:所有的线都在价格振荡幅度中, 我们可以判断牛市熊市等等。所有的线也是在价格产生新低新高的同时反应的,完全没有延 迟。换句话说,日本云是个复杂的交易系统。 但是为什么我们不立刻使用它呢, 因为有人说默认参数(92652)适合于周线,所以不适合外汇;这个指标在默认参数在其他的 时间架构不起作用。所以在不同的时间结构采用不同的参数是很有必要的。然而却有些人用 默认参数就创造了很好的成绩~下面我们来具体描述一下Ichimoku日本云的使用。我想强 调一下,如果你们要用这个指标,你们用周图一个星期可能就两笔交易,或者用天图两天一 笔日间交易。你将很有可能5笔交易赢4笔。 We said above that if Chinkou Span line is crossing the price curve from down to upward we have the signal to buy and from up to down - signal to sell. But this Chinkou Span line should cross the line not in horizontal way. It should be at angle (45 or above is the ideal crossing). , Besides we mentioned about Tenkan-sen line is crossing Kijun-sen lines crossing: Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen from down to up - signal to buy (Gold Cross) sell signal is called as Dead Cross. If the price curve crossed the Senkou Span B line (price candle should be closed before the line) we may open the order on the direction of the trend. But only in the case if Tenkan-sen line is not on horizontal level. If Tenkan-sen line is on horizontal level - we have a flat market. We are not trading in this case. And if we have Tenkan-sen Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are going in horizontal way above each other - it is reversed point. It means the price will change the direction soon. If the price is inside the cloud together with horizontal Tenkan-sen - afloat market. Most of us will not trade in this case but some people are trying to trade inside the cloude understanding the cloud as the channel. It is possible only if the channel (cloud) is big enough. 我们之前说了Chinkou线的金叉是买进信号,死叉是卖出信号。但是这个叉不应该是横着叉 过去。最好是有个角度,45度或者以上的角度叉。 另外我们台岛Tenkan-sen向上叉Kijun-sen是买进信号,向下叉是卖出信号。 如果价格曲线和和Senkou的通道B线相交(价格必须收在线的前面)我们就可以顺着趋势的 方向开仓。但仅限于Tenkan-sen不是横着走的时候。 如果Tenkan-sen线是横着走的,这就是震荡行情,不宜交易。 如果我们看到Tenkan-sen,Kijun-sen和Senkou SpanB线都是横着走,这就是反转点了。 这意味着价格立刻要改变方向了。 如果价格在云的内部走动,Tenkan-sen也是横着走的,震荡行情。大多数不会在这种情况 下交易,不过有的人把云看作通道,在内部来交易。这仅仅在云足够大的时候有可行性 So we have the signals to enter. But it is very important to exit in right way: T/P and S/L. If we enter (open the order) on the direction to the cloud so most probably we will have 2 levels of T/P which are the Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B lines. S/L (stop loss levels) we will estimate using some other indicators. If we are trading on the direction from the cloud the Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B lines will be stop loss levels (together with Kijun-sen line). In this case the profit level (T/P) will be in the place where Tenkan-sen line is changing the direction or in some other place according to our evaluation. 所以我们有了入场信号,但是准确的出场方式更重要:止损,止赢。 如果我们朝着云的方向开仓,我们有两级止赢,Senkou Span A和Senkou Span B的线。止 损需要用其他的指标来看着办。 如果我们背着云的方向开仓,Senkou Span A和Senkou Span B的线就成了两级止损。这种 情况下,止赢就是在Tenkan-sen线改变方向的时候,或者根据我们的其他方法来判断。 有必要提一下,Ichimoku日本云实在蜡烛图中使用的,所以我们不违反蜡烛分析来操作。 如果云改变了颜色,即Senkou Span A和Senkou Span B的线交叉,我们就有了趋势即将反 转的信号。 To trade inside the cloud (which should be big enough) we are using Tenkan-sen line following the direction of the line and trading using Chinkou Span line signals: if Chinkou Span line is crossing the price curve from below to upward we have the signal to buy and from above to below - signal to sell. In this case we will have stop loss levels out of cloud and profit levels will be the borders of the cloud. Thus we enter using Chinkou Span we have S/L levels somewhere outside the cloud we have prit levels which are of the borders of the cloud. Or we may exit if Tenkan-sen line was changed the direction; if we have an other Chinkou Span line signal; if the price is crossing the one of the cloud lines. , 如果想在很大的云中交易,我们跟着Tenkan-sen线的方向做,使用Chinkou Span线的 信号:如果Chinkou Span线和价格曲线的金叉买进,死叉卖出。我们把止损设置在云的外 面点,止赢在内侧点。或者我们可以在Tenkan-sen线改变方向的时候出场,在出现另外一 个Chinkou Span线的信号的时候出场,或者在价格和云的一条线交叉的时候出场。 The most strong signals for this indicator were observed on W1 D1 and H1 timeframes as the following: - the price curve is crossing the Senkou Span B line breaking this resistance line; - Chinkou Span line signals; - 3 line signal (Tenkan-sen Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are going in horizontal way above each other); - gold and dead crosses. 这个指标最强的信号在周图,天图和一小时图上面: -价格曲线穿越Senkou Span B线并打破这个阻力 -Chinkou Span线的信号 -三线信号(Tenkan-sen Kijun-sen和Senkou Span B线都走的是横势) -金叉和死叉 下面我们来详细描述如何在不同的时间周期上选择参数和止赢止损,还有如何进行风险的控 制: 很多人知道这个指标是个非常有利可图的指标,同时呢他又是个非常值得信任的系统。 四种设定止损的方法: 1.一小时图上的技术性止损 15 - 30 p on eur; 20 - 30 on gbp; 35 - 50 on jpy; 30 - 80 on chf. 2.主要是在周线和日线上使用云朵来止损,周线上200点,日线上大概100-150点,如果用 云朵在一小时图上止损: 40 - 50 on eur 50 - 60 on gbp 70 - 100 on chf 60 - 90 on jpy. 3.始终15点的方法来止损(chf30点),这种方法打到止损的可能性不小于: - 40%,如果我们顺一小时的势 - 80% ,如果我们逆一小时的势 - 50或者60%在无势的市场 4.仅仅只用云朵止损,止损设置在云朵外侧 止赢的话,我们支撑或者压力线,云朵的边界。我们把云朵理解成通道。如果云朵太大,可 以在云朵中间结利一次。 这个指标最强的信号出现在月图或者周图上。如果有其他指标的信号作为确认,一小图上也 有好的信号(最好用到我们上面描述的所有信号确认)。其他时间周期的信号是超级弱的~ Risks. If you are playing with this indicator using 20000 deposit having the rule not to open the order if S/L level is more than 2 or 5% of your deposit (daily) you are not risky man. But as we stated above Ishimoku indicator is having the 4 signals which are not equivalent on strength. In most cases the first signal will be most faint and further signals will be more stronger. But the most stronger signal will be the last one. The probability of the signals to be real ones defers in 15 - 20 % from each other. Thus the first signal is the most profitable but with the great probability to have S/L (for the order to be closed on S/L without profit). More risky. Some people using 0.1 lot to open the order on the first signal and 0.4 for the most stronger signal. 风险治理 如果你有2万美金的存款,每笔交易损失不超过2到5个百分点,你完全就没有风险。 不过Ichimoku日本云有4个强度不等的信号。最先出现的信号最弱,但是最有利可图,风 险最大;最后的信号最强盛,盈利空间最小,不过作为信号又有点点晚了。所以有人在第一 个信号下0.1手,最后一个信号下0.4手。 参数设定 日图上是经典的默认参数9; 26; 52这个是最好的时间周期了~一小时图我们也许用这样的 , 参数120; 240; 480。 也有些其他的参数可选: - 6-12-24 (H1); - 72-144-288 (M5); - 12-24-120 (M5); - 12-60-120 (M5); - 5-10-20(M15) 在2002年的莫斯科年会上讨论到Ichimoku日本云和MACD的时候,人们建议天图上使用9, 26,52;一小时图上使用120,240,480。不使用其他的时间周期。 我下个结论吧: M5 72-144-288 H1 12-24-120 或 120-240-480 D1 5-10-20 或 9-26-52 W1 9-26-52 最好的设置也许就是莫斯科年会上提出的。 以上仅仅是我到处搜集的一些信息,大多数的来源是俄罗斯。应为俄罗斯人不太爱用英语。我(newdigital)就担任起了这样的 责任 安全质量包保责任状安全管理目标责任状8安全事故责任追究制幼儿园安全责任状占有损害赔偿请求权 。这些不是严格的规则,也不是科学性的报告。Ichimoku日本云使用起来并不简朴。有很多学校都在教学生学习如何使用这个伟大的指标。我给出的只能说是一些启蒙教材。 后续讨论: 日语里”sen”是线的意思. “Tenkan” 是转变的意思. “Kijun”是平均或者 标准 excel标准偏差excel标准偏差函数exl标准差函数国标检验抽样标准表免费下载红头文件格式标准下载 的意思. “Senkou”是快的意思,”chinkou”是迟的意思. 有些交易者仅仅只使用Ichimoku日本云,不使用其他的指标。 Chinkou Span的值是之前(默认26)若干根棒的收盘。它显示的是若干时间之前发生的事情~有个平移在里面。不是现价。大家可以改下设置试试。以下是例子,买入信号发生在和平移后的收盘价形成线的交叉 Igorad做的带报警的Ichimoku指标 jorgeng的用法 分析一下这个eurusd,看看之后它会怎么走。 Future possible uptrend.Tenkan-sen (red line) was crossed Kijun_sen (blue line) showing uptrend in the near future. We got this buy signal on the full closed bar on D1 timeframe. But this first signal is very feeble. We will have more strognger signal if Chinkou Span line will go up crossing the price. Chinkou Span line (white line) came a short way off the price ready to go up. But did not cross the price yet. 未来向上的可能性:Tenkkan-sen(红线)和Kijun-sen(蓝线)显示短期是个涨势。这个 买进信号是从天图上的收盘后的来的,但是第一个信号是很弱的。。如果Chikou Span线向 上穿越了价格,我们就会得到另一个强一点的信号。Chinkou Span线(白线)预备向上, 但还没有穿越价格。 Future possible downtrend. On the other hand according to the Ichimoku chart the EURUSD is still on downtrend now. We have Senkou Span B line on the way to the price if uptrend (Senkou Span B line is the border line of the cloud). This Senkou Span B line is the nearest resistance line. Besides the price is located below the cloud. 未来向下的可能性:另一方面,根据Ichimoku图,eurusd尚未挣脱下降阴影。如果是涨势, Senkou Span B线(云的边界)正在接近价格。这条线是最近的阻力线。价格在云的下方。 Trend Reversal. According to the cloud we exect uptrend to be established in 15th of March. I mean finally established uptrend. But this situation may be changed. , 趋势反转的可能性:根据这个日本云,我们清晰的看到3月15号涨势即将确认。我的意思 是最终的涨势。但这种情况还是有可能有变化的。 Flat. Tenkan-sen Kijun_sen and Senkou Span B lines are on horizontal way. Flat. But the situation may be changed very quickly because Chinkou Span line is not fully following Tenkan-sen Kijun_sen and Senkou Span B lines. 振荡市场的可能性:Tenkan-sen,Kijun-sen和Senkou Span B线都是横着的方向。不过这 种情况有可能很快改变,因为Chinkou Span线不是完全的跟着Tenkan-sen,Kijun-sen和 Senkou Span B线的。 So irrespective of the buy signal the situation is not very clear and probably any news will affect on the price movement now. 所以不考虑这个不是很清楚的买入信号,任何新闻都有可能影响价格的波动。 最终它涨了(deuxmille:newdigital在完全没有看到后一张图的时候做出的前面的猜测) 再来学学newdigital的分析方法:On the weekly Ichimoku chart we see downtrend. Market is trying to be reversed and we already have signals for buy: - Kijun-sen line was crossed Tenkan-sen line (ren and blue ones). - the cloud was changed to uptrend many weeks ago. - Chinkou Span line came near the price ready to go up. These signals are not strong. Still downtrend. And the price is near resistance line (border of the cloud) on the way up. Besides Kijunsen-sen and Tenkan-sen lines are in horizontal way 在Ichimoku日本云的周图上面,我们看到的是下降趋势。市场正在试图反转,因为我们已 经看到了买入信号: -Kijun-sen线和Tenkan-sen线已经交叉(红线和蓝线) -日本云在数周前已经变成上升云 -Chinkou Span线接近了价格并且在向上 这三个信号都不强,仍旧是下降趋势。价格在向上过程中已经很接近阻力线(云朵边界)另 外Kijun-sen和Tenkan-sen线都在横着走。 On the daily Ichimoku chart we see uptrend (generally). But the price is reversing to downtrend during the several days already and we got one signal yesterday: - the cloud was changed to downtrend. 在天图的Ichimoku云上,我们看到的大致是一个上升趋势,但是价格在反转。下降趋势已 经有好几天。而且我们昨天也得到了一个信号: -云朵变成了下降云 再来看看samarkand带来的分析,在USDJPY上。其实日本人设计的这个指标就是适合日元,黄金这种日本人爱玩的。 周图上已经在05年6月10号给出来买入的确认108.63。最后有个1276点的理论最大获利值。还有可能继续向上冲。因为用传统的西方分析技术,我们可以看到一个等边三角形,这 往往是趋势继续的形态。(deuxmille:寒一个西方技术。另外三角形形态不是要看往哪边突 破吗,不过多种技术结合的方法的确值得人借鉴~) 在EURUSD的周图上。 samarkand:我28号预测的“有可能有个上影线测试周图云朵的阻力,同时完成一个三波浪 ABC” 昨天日图上,欧元的长上影线把价格推到了云朵里面,然而还有三天这个周棒才会结束。 所有的因素都到位了,除了Kumo的突破,周图上的买入信号就要形成。Kumo的突破也许需 要四到五百点涨势。 newdigital:我们看到涨势已经开始了。但是Kijun-sen和Tenkan-sen几乎是横着交叉的。 另外,最近的阻力是云的底端,离价格在周图上看起来并不远。这说明振荡可能在不远的将 来要开始了。 It is necessary to say that Ichimoku indicator is using in candlestick charts and we are not trading in case of contradiction with candle analysis. If the cloud was changed the color ( if the Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B lines were interchanged) we have the sign that the direction of the trend will be changed soon (will be reversed soon).
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