全球风险报告2009

World Economic Forum January 2009 Global Risks 2009 A Global Risk Network Report COMMITTED TO IMPROVING THE STATE OF THE WORLD A World Economic Forum Report in collaboration with Citigroup Marsh & McLennan Companies (MMC) Swiss Re Wharton School Risk Center Zurich Financial Services This work was prepared by the Global Risk Network of the World Economic Forum. World Economic Forum 91-93 route de la Capite CH-1223 Cologny/Geneva Switzerland Tel.: +41 (0)22 869 1212 Fax: +41 (0)22 786 2744 E-mail: globalrisks@weforum.org www.weforum.org © 2009 World Economic Forum All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system. ISBN: 92-95044-15-0 978-92-95044-15-9 REF: 060109 The information in this report, or on which this report is based, has been obtained from sources that the authors believe to be reliable and accurate. However, it has not been independently verified and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of any information obtained from third parties. In addition, the statements in this report may provide current expectations of future events based on certain assumptions and include any statement that does not directly relate to a historical fact or a current fact. These statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which are not exhaustive. The companies contributing to this report operate in a continually changing environment and new risks emerge continually. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these statements. The companies contributing to this report undertake no obligation to publicly revise or update any statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise and they shall in no event be liable for any loss or damage arising in connection with the use of the information in this report. Figure 1: Global Risks Landscape 2009: Likelihood with Severity by Economic Loss Likelihood below 1% 1-5% 5-10% 10-20% above 20% 2- 10 b ill io n 10 -5 0 b ill io n 50 -2 50 b ill io n 25 0 b ill io n- 1 tr ill io n m or e th an 1 tr ill io n S ev er it y (in U S $) Based on an the assessment of risks over a 10 year time horizon by the Global Risk Network Key: Boxes indicate change since last year’s assessment New risk for 2009 DecreasedIncreased Stable Likelihood Severity 34 36 35 29 30 31 32 33 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 11 1 3 4 5 89 10 2 67 Source: World Economic Forum 2009 ECONOMIC 1 Food price volatility 2 Oil and gas price spike 3 Major fall in US$ 4 Slowing Chinese economy (6%) 5 Fiscal crises 6 Asset price collapse 7 Retrenchment from globalization (developed) 8 Retrenchment from globalization (emerging) 9 Regulation cost 10 Underinvestment in infrastructure GEOPOLITICAL 11 International terrorism 12 Collapse of NPT 13 US/Iran conflict 14 US/DPRK conflict 15 Afghanistan instability 16 Transnational crime and corruption 17 Israel-Palestine conflict 18 Violence in Iraq 19 Global governance gaps ENVIRONMENTAL 20 Extreme climate change related weather 21 Droughts and desertification 22 Loss of freshwater 23 NatCat: Cyclone 24 NatCat: Earthquake 25 NatCat: Inland flooding 26 NatCat: Coastal flooding 27 Air pollution 28 Biodiversity loss SOCIETAL 29 Pandemic 30 Infectious disease 31 Chronic disease 32 Liability regimes 33 Migration TECHNOLOGICAL 34 CII breakdown 35 Emergence of nanotechnology risks 36 Data fraud/loss 3 | Global Risks 2009 Preface 4 Executive Summary 5 1. The Global Risks Landscape 2009 6 2. The Financial Crisis and Global Risks 9 3. Resource Challenges, Sustainability and Competition 16 4. Global Governance: a Key to Global Stability and Sustainability 21 Appendix 1: The Risk Assessment and Risk Barometer 27 Appendix 2: Global Risks Report: Process and Definition 32 Contributors and Acknowledgements 33 Contents Global_Risks_2009_6_Jan1:Global Risks-01 07.01.09 13:01 Page3 Conclusion 26 Preface 4 | Global Risks 2009 2009 will be a year of learning the lessons of the financial crisis; a year where its reach in terms of time and scope becomes more evident; a year that calls for a new financial architecture to be shaped. At the same time, it will be a year that will test the resolve and willingness of world leaders to collaborate and take action to move beyond this crisis. The global risks landscape is a crowded one and the window of opportunity we have to address some of the largest challenges of our time is narrow. Global Risks 2009 looks at the risks, economic and other, that could emerge as the financial crisis continues to unfold. The report considers the implications of a sudden drop in China’s growth to 6% or below; deteriorating fiscal positions; and further asset price falls. Given the vulnerable state of the global economy, and as deleveraging continues across the financial system, further shocks could have severe and far-reaching consequences. The degree to which the world has lost confidence in its institutions and systems is serious. Without confidence we could face a protracted and potentially calamitous, downward spiral. Governments, central banks and regulators must avert this but must also avoid inadvertently sowing the seeds of future crises. They need to restore confidence at all levels; to consumers and house-owners, to investors, and in and among financial institutions. This crisis exposed the weaknesses of governance systems. Good governance and leadership will help rebuild confidence, enable alignment across regions and industries, and encourage collaboration. With world attention focused on the immediate economic challenges, this report also warns against losing sight of longer term risks. Now is the time for leaders to look ahead. Risks related to climate change, unresolved resource issues and potentially more defensive and protectionist stances by states could lead to a conflation of these global risks with significant societal and economic costs. Again, better governance at corporate, country and global level is necessary to provide the frameworks for stable international relations, and for states and corporations to create greater certainty and trust. Successful mitigation of global risks will only be possible once confidence in global governance institutions is restored, starting by ensuring that they are adapted to today’s challenges and revising their mandate and powers accordingly. They must be able to function in a proactive and coordinated fashion, fostering cooperation across all regions, industries and stakeholder groups. Global Risks 2009 builds on the insight and experience of the Forum’s unparalleled network of political and business leaders, experts and academics. We are grateful for the continued commitment of our partners on this report: Citigroup, Marsh & McLennan Companies (MMC), Swiss Re, The Wharton School Risk Center and Zurich Financial Services. This report takes a long-term approach to risk, looking ten years ahead, while not forgetting that decision-makers must respond to the crisis today with the consequences that carries for their countries and enterprises. Above all, Global Risks 2009 provides a framework for leaders to think about risk and how the risks that they face in the short term in their region and business link to the longer term risks, with global implications. While the mitigation of the risks considered here will demand leadership, commitment and resources across all stakeholder groups, they may also yield opportunities and strengthen the ties between different parts of the world. 2008 has proven the extent to which the world is subject to global risks; let 2009 be the year where the world finds a common agenda to begin mitigating their impact. Klaus Schwab Founder and Executive Chairman World Economic Forum Global_Risks_2009_6_Jan1:Global Risks-01 07.01.09 13:02 Page4 Executive Summary 5 | Global Risks 2009 2008 was an historic year. Financial disruptions triggered by declining house prices in the US grew into a global credit crisis of systemic proportions. By the second half of the year, most advanced economies had entered a recession. The downturn spilled over into emerging markets, increasing the likelihood of a global contraction in 2009. Although the world has seen several financial crises, this one differs in two respects. First, it has demonstrated just how tightly interconnected globalization has made the world and its systems. Second, this crisis was driven by developed economies using unprecedented levels of debt and leverage throughout the financial system. Thus, risks that had been identified in the past two editions of this report – the risk of a global meltdown in asset prices (2007) and the widespread mispricing of risk and the potential implications of systemic financial risk (2008) – have materialized with huge consequences. The focus of the report This year’s report focuses on the effects of the global financial crisis and its implications for those risks that came to the fore of the Global Risk Network assessment for 2009. They include: a sudden further drop in China’s growth to 6% or below; deteriorating fiscal positions; further asset price falls; increasing resource-related risks due to climate change; and the failure of global governance to mitigate global risks. The highly interconnected nature of these risks means that their impact is truly global. The economic outlook for 2009 is a grim one for most economies; markets remain volatile, liquidity has not returned, unemployment is rising, and consumer and business confidence has fallen to record lows. In this climate, risks become even more potent in their impact and, as discussed in previous reports, the tendency towards panic and short-term responses are more pronounced. This report explores the dangers of managing out of this crisis, without considering the broader, long-term consequences of today’s decisions. It also stresses the need for a determined, global focus on balancing the response to the immediate challenges with a concerted effort to mitigate longer term risks, not least those relating to climate change and resources. The report also considers the impact of the financial crisis and economic environment on a few risks introduced for the first time in 2008 and others that the Global Risk Network has tracked for several years. Many of these are particularly pertinent to the current environment. Linking to the discussion on the response to the financial crisis, the risk of over-regulation and lack of a coordinated approach to regulation at a global level makes its first appearance in the assessment. The same is true of underinvestment in infrastructure, a risk that is highly interconnected with a number of economic, environmental and societal risks. In terms of both economic impact and loss of life, health risks, including chronic and infectious diseases, as well as the ongoing risk of a major pandemic, continue to dominate. Conflicts, in particular intra-state conflict, and terrorism continue to mar the lives of millions worldwide and their effects reach far beyond the costs to the populations they directly touch. Global Risks 2009 offers an assessment of how the focus risks interconnect with others and how they may evolve over time. It also raises many questions about the risk of ignoring other potential crises when dealing with a current one. The events of 2008 underscored the importance of two major ideas behind the work of the Global Risk Network: global risks can only be understood when explored in the context of their interlinkages with other risks and no one group acting alone can mitigate them effectively. These aspects of global risks are also why they pose such a challenge for policy-makers and business leaders alike. However, as they try to resolve this situation as quickly as possible, leaders must be mindful of the long-term implications of today’s decisions. Global_Risks_2009_6_Jan1:Global Risks-01 07.01.09 13:02 Page5 1. The Global Risks Landscape 2009 6 | Global Risks 2009 How the global risks landscape has evolved since last year The following risks came to the fore in the assessment for 2009, both in terms of likelihood and severity and the degree to which they are “pivotal” risks, i.e. that they are at the nexus of many risks. Deteriorating fiscal positions The deterioration of fiscal balances in several major G8 countries and other economies was judged as increasing in both likelihood and severity. From the interconnections map it can be seen that this risk is linked to a number of other central economic, societal and economic risks: retrenchment from globalization, a fall in the US dollar, further asset price declines, the rise of chronic diseases and underinvestment in public infrastructure. Node size: denotes severity, Node colours: red – economics; dark green – geopolitics; light green – environmental; purple – technology; blue – society Lines: line thickness denotes the strength of the interlinkage. The direction of a thicker line segment indicates when one risk is the stronger in the relationship. Proximity: the map shows risks that are tightly interlinked to many other risks as closer to one another. China hard landing Though the most recent World Bank forecast (November 2008) suggests China will still achieve growth of 7.5% in 2009, given the importance of China in terms of its potential to be a source of global growth and given its massive net-creditor position mainly with respect to the US, a slowdown to 6% or below in China’s growth rate would have significant impact on the already weak global economy. This risk is highly connected to a fall in the US dollar, to energy and food price risks, and to health risks. Asset price collapse Though the effects of sharply declining asset prices are already playing out, the assessment continues to place this risk as very high on both the likelihood and severity scale across different asset classes and regions. Many Source: World Economic Forum 2009 Figure 2: Risks Interconnection Map (RIM) 2009 These pages should be read with the front inside flap open for an overview of all charts Global_Risks_2009_6_Jan1:Global Risks-01 07.01.09 13:02 Page6 7 | Global Risks 2009 experts expect the decline in asset prices to continue over the coming months as the financial crisis unwinds further and the recession leads to bankruptcies and credit defaults. Resource challenges Linking several of the risks on the assessment, including climate change-related weather events and declining water quality and availability as well as energy, these longer term risks have remained almost constant since the last assessment. Nearly half of the world’s population already live in high water stressed areas and the links to food security, geopolitical and health risks are strong. In this report, the linkage between energy, water and land is discussed more fully. Global governance gaps Introduced for the first time in the 2009 assessment, experts and Global Risk Network members deemed the absence or lack of effective and inclusive governance on global issues such as financial stability, trade, climate change, water and security as a source of risk in and of itself. The assessment places this gap as highly likely and severe in its impact. As the interconnections map shows, weak global governance sits at a central position between geopolitical, economic and environmental risks. A note on health-related risks Though not discussed extensively in this report, chronic disease, infectious disease and pandemics all remain high on the assessment, particularly in terms of potential severity in economic and loss of life indices. Chronic disease, in particular, is not only prominent in the assessment but is also central on the interconnections map, linking strongly to food prices and infectious disease but also to China’s growth and fiscal crises. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), chronic diseases (including heart disease, stroke, cancer, chronic respiratory disease and diabetes) are currently the cause of 60% of deaths annually worldwide, of which 80% occur in low- and middle-income countries. Health spending already represents a significant burden on public spending, which will increase as fiscal positions deteriorate and budgets come under pressure. Likelihood below 1% 1-5% 5-10% 10-20% above 20% 1, 60 0- 8, 00 0 8, 00 0- 40 ,0 00 40 ,0 00 -2 00 ,0 00 20 0, 00 0- 1, 00 0, 00 0 > 1, 00 0, 00 0 S ev er it y (n u m b er o f d ea th s) 34 35 29 30 31 33 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 11 12 1314 15 16 17 18 19 1 10 Figure 3: Global Risks Landscape 2009: Likelihood with Severity by Number of Deaths Source: World Economic Forum 2009 Please see inside flap for key Global_Risks_2009_6_Jan1:Global Risks-01 08.01.09 09:09 Page7 8 | Global Risks 2009 * For a note on the tool behind this chart please see Appendix 2 Country exposure to global risks As the Risk Interconnections Map (RIM) offers an overview of linkages, a complementary approach is to consider the ramifications of these interactions at regional and country level. The chart below is derived from a model looking at the global risk exposure of 160 countries*. The model uses 24 of the global risks that are assessed in this report. Below, country exposures to economic risks (on an increasing scale, from low to high), which can change rapidly, are depicted on the horizontal axis. Exposures to more slow-moving environmental, geopolitical, health and technological risks are displayed vertically (also on an increasing scale, low to high). Looking at different clusters, the chart underscores regional clusters and outliers. It reveals a fairly high level of cohesion with respect to economic risks among European countries. In contrast, the variation in risk exposures is far larger along the domain that includes geopolitical, environmental, health and technological risks. A closer analysis of the individual risks (not shown here) suggests that drivers for dispersion in Europe are mainly geopolitical and, to a lesser degree, environmental risks, with particularly high exposures to geopolitical risks in countries of the former Soviet Union. The picture for Asia is reversed. Asian countries are much more diverse with respect to their exposures to economic risks, but comparatively tightly clustered – however at a higher median risk level – when it comes to the geopolitical and environmental risk dimensions. African countries form, in general, a comparatively tight cluster with respect to environmental, geopolitical, health and technological risks dimensions. Note that their median exposure is lower than that for Asian countries, and also that Africa is not quite as strongly exposed to economic risks as is Asia. Though this chart should only be taken as a tool to explore possible risk exposure, it does suggest that certain regions and countries have the potential to reduce their overall risk exposure along one or the other axis. Figure 4: Exposure of 160 Countries to 24 Global Risks Source: Zurich Financial Services, 2008 ZW SN CD ET SD LY CN IN ID SGHK QA SA TM IQ AFPK KW NZ AL UK ISL SE FI GE NO CH AT US CA BR 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Economic risks G eo po lit ic al , E nv iro nm en ta l, H ea lth , T ec hn ic al r is ks Africa Asia Australia Pacific Europe N America S America Asian countries African countries European countries Global_Risks_2009_6_Jan1:Global Risks-01 07.01.09 13:02 Page8 2. The Financial Crisis and Global Risks 1Pension and healthcare reform is examined in a rece