2012年第三季度天津市场报告_EN

Property Times Tianjin Q3 2012 Office demand slows DTZ Research 15 October 2012 Contents Economic Overview 2 Office 3 Retail 4 Residential 5 Definitions 6 Author Crystal Hao Research Analyst +86 22 2313 9751 Crystal.bj.hao@dtz.com Contacts Sabrina Wei Head of North China Research +86 10 8519 8087 sabrina.d.wei@dtz.com David Ji Head of Greater China Research +852 2507 0779 david.yx.ji@dtz.com Matthew Hall Global Head of Forecasting +44 (0)20 3296 3011 matthew.hall@dtz.com Hans Vrensen Global Head of Research +44 (0)20 3296 2159 hans.vrensen@dtz.com  In Q3 2012, no new grade A office space was introduced to the market. Available stock was gradually absorbed and some buildings are undergoing upgrading and renovation work. The average rent increased slightly to reach RMB 122.64 (US$19.31) per sq m per month or RMB 4.09 (US$0.64) per sq m per day, up 0.11% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) and 8.06% year-on-year (y-o-y) (Figure 1). The leasing demand for grade A office declined due to the gloomy global economic environment. The overall net absorption totalled 8,000 sq m, down 50.24% y-o-y. The city’s overall availability ratio dropped to 16.62%, 1.02 percentage points lower than last quarter.  Galaxy International Shopping Mall opened on 1 September, bringing a total of 236,700 sq m of new supply to the retail market. The F&B sector remained one of the key drivers in the market. Due to continued growth of per capita disposable income and positive response to new shopping malls, many overseas and domestic retailers are entering or expanding in the Tianjin market.  The government lowered the mortgage interest rate again in Q3. As a result, demand for residential properties picked up, and transaction volume of new homes increased to 1.09 million sq m. The average house price increased 0.35% q-o-q to RMB 12,784 (US$2,013) per sq m in Q3 Figure 1 DTZ office index (Q1 2006=100) 0 50 100 150 200 250 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 2 F 2 0 1 3 F 2 0 1 4 F 2 0 1 5 F 2 0 1 6 F Office rent Office price F=Forecast Source: DTZ Research Tianjin Q3 2012 www.dtz.com Property Times 2 Economic Overview According to the city’s statistics bureau, Tianjin’s GDP increased 14.1% y-o-y in the first half of 2012, to a total of RMB 586.49 billion (US$92.36bn) (Table 1). Tianjin’s fixed asset investments increased 26.4% y-o-y in the first seven months to reach RMB 511.03 billion (US$80.48bn) (Table 1). Tianjin per capita disposable income from January to July 2012 grew steadily to reach RMB 16,462 (US$2,592.44), an increase of 10.3% y-o-y (Table 1). From January to July 2012, FDI utilised reached USD 88.54 billion, an increase of 15.1% y-o-y (Table 1). In the first seven months, the Tianjin CPI climbed 3.3% y-o-y (Table 1). Table 1 Economic indicators Indicator Period Unit Value Change y-o-y (%) GDP H1 RMB 100 million 5,864.94 14.1 Fixed asset investment Jan-Jul RMB 100 million 5,110.31 26.4 Disposable income per capita Jan-Jul RMB 16,462 10.3 FDI utilised Jan-Jul USD 100 million 88.54 15.1 Investment in real estate Jan-May RMB 100 million 450.95 28.5 Consumer price index Jan-Jul - 103.3 3.3 Source: Tianjin Bureau of Statistics Tianjin Q3 2012 www.dtz.com Property Times 3 Office In Q3, no new projects entered the market and total grade A office stock in Tianjin remained at 850,633 sq m (Table 2). This quarter, available stock was gradually absorbed and some buildings are undergoing upgrading and renovation works. Average rent increased slightly to RMB 122.64 (US$19.31) per sq m per month or RMB 4.09 (US$0.64) per sq m per day, up 0.11% q-o-q and 8.06% y-o-y (Table 2). The DTZ office rental index also increased to 143.4 in Q3 (Figure 2). In terms of submarkets, rents in Nanjing Road remained the highest in the city, reaching RMB 129.45 (US$20.39) per sq m per month. Rents in Xiaobailou remained stable this quarter, with rents reaching RMB 103.70 (US$16.33) per sq m per month, a mild increase of 0.30% q-o-q. Rental for Financial City and Youyi Road remained stable as well (Table 2). In Binhai New Area, rents increased to reach RMB 5-6 (US$0.79-0.94) per sq m per day. The leasing demand for grade A office declined due to the gloomy global economic environment. This quarter, the overall net absorption totalled 8,000 sq m, down 50.24% y- o-y. Tenants mainly derived from the finance and service sectors, and local companies were the most active in terms of leasing. The city’s overall availability ratio dropped to 16.62%, 1.02 percentage points lower than last quarter (Table 2). In the office strata-title sales market, the average price reached RMB 19,800 (US$3,118) per sq m. Minsheng Bank bought 40,000 sq m of office area in Huirong Building in Heping District and the turnkey office projects in TEDA MSD have been completed. Looking forward, Tianjin’s office market should remain stable, largely due to stability in the local economy. With limited new supply and continuous absorption, we expect the vacancy rate to drop while rents remain stable (Figure 3). Recent transactions  Tianjin Lefu Financial Company leased 736 sq m in Tianjin IFC.  Yihuangxuan Culture Consulting leased 500 sq m in City Building.  Watsons leased 365 sq m in Jinwan Building. Table 2 Grade A office market statistics District Total stock (sq m) Availability ratio (%) Rent (RMB/ sq m/ month) Change q-o-q (%) Nanjing Road 300,400 7.78 129.45 0.15 Xiaobailou 235,558 4.86 103.70 0.30 Youyi Road 148,675 13.41 125.92 0 Financial City 166,000 52.48 126.40 0 Overall 850,633 16.62 122.64 0.11 Source: DTZ Research Figure 2 DTZ office index (2006 Q1=100) 0 50 100 150 200 250 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 2 F 2 0 1 3 F 2 0 1 4 F 2 0 1 5 F 2 0 1 6 F Office rent Office price F=Forecast Souce: DTZ Resarch Figure 3 Availability ratio, supply and net absorption, sq m (000s) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F2013F New Supply Net Absorption Availability ratio F=Forecast Souce: DTZ Resarch Tianjin Q3 2012 www.dtz.com Property Times 4 Retail From January to July 2012, total retail sales of consumer goods in Tianjin increased 16.2% y-o-y to reach RMB 221.09 billion (US$34.82bn) (Figure 4). Galaxy International Shopping Mall opened on September 1, bringing a total of 236,700 sq m of new supply to the retail market. The total retail stock in Tianjin reached 2,098,892 sq m. Among all sectors, the F&B was the key driver for the retail market. The Exchange ended its contact with Acasia Deli Food and brought in new tenants including Bellagio and Spice Spirit as a marketing ploy. Galaxy International Shopping Mall also set aside 20% of its area for F&B. Honeymoon Dessert leased 110 sq m in International Plaza on the Binjiang Road Hub. In addition, Starbucks, Costa Coffee, Papa John’s Pizza and Saizeriya are also actively expanding. This quarter, investment demand for retail property picked up. A total of 92,100 sq m of retail space was transacted this quarter, an increase of 202% q-o-q, most of the transactions coming from high-street stores. Due to continuous growth in per capita disposable income and a positive response to new shopping malls, many overseas and domestic retailers are entering or expanding in the market. Aeon has chosen new locations for its two new stores, and Lotte Store opened its second store in Galaxy International Shopping Mall with retail space of 70,000 sq m. In addition, Wanda and China Resources also plan to open new stores in Tianjin. The opening of Metro line 2 has enhanced mobility of customers between different retail hubs. Hence, new retail hubs will bring more competition to the overall retail market. As a result, shopping malls and department stores have began carrying out renovation and/or brand upgrading work to attract more consumers. Figure 4 Total retail sales of consumer goods, RMB billion 0 100 200 300 400 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* * Data for 2012 is as of July Source: Tianjin Statistics Bureau Table 3 Shopping mall statistics District Total stock (sq m) New supply (sq m) Rents range (RMB/sq m/ month) South Market 489,900 0 120-300 Binjiang Road 708,500 0 450-900 Xiaobailou 140,392 0 140-300 Youyi Road 271,700 236,700 - Others 488,400 0 - Overall 2,098,892 236,700 - Souce: DTZ Resarch Tianjin Q3 2012 www.dtz.com Property Times 5 Residential From June to August 2012, a total of 1,330,449 sq m of new housing supply was launched into the market (Table 7). In particular, more than 60% of the new residential projects are from the six inner districts. The government lowered the mortgage interest rate again in Q3. As a result, demand for residential properties picked up, the transaction volume of new homes increasing to 1.09 million sq m. In the six inner districts, Hedong District recorded the highest transaction volume, reaching 183,954 sq m (Table 7). Transaction volume for Binhai New Area also recorded an increase of 16.02% q-o-q to 519,204 sq m. The average housing price increased 0.35% q-o-q to RMB 12,784 (US$2,013) per sq m in Q3. Prices for the six inner districts remained high, with Hexi District witnessing the highest annual growth of 7.83% to reach RMB 20,529 (US$3,233) per sq m (Table 7). Price for residential property in Binhai New Area reached RMB 8,764 (US$1,380) per sq m, an increase of 3.84% q-o-q. Loosened financial policy and decreasing mortgage rates had positive effects on market sentiment. This quarter, positive factors for the Tianjin residential market include the operation and planning of new railway lines and improved business facilities in various parts of the city. Looking forward, tightened bank loans at the end of year and increasing stock in the market will have implications for the outlook of Tianjin’s residential market. Table 4 Residential market statistics (Jun-Aug 2012) District New Supply (sq m) Transaction volume (sq m) Price (RMB/ sq m) Price change y- o-y (%) Heping 49,662 98,292 20,421 -5.26 Hedong 171,406 183,954 13,461 -10.66 Hexi 60,935 20,529 19,874 7.83 Nankai 333,150 114,539 20,282 4.41 Hebei 108,915 115,792 13,606 3.48 Hongqiao 76,335 41,677 15,497 -11.99 Binhai 530,046 519,204 8,764 -8.22 Overall 1,330,449 1,093,988 12,784 -11.33 Source: DTZ Research Figure 5 DTZ residential index (2006 Q1=100) 0 50 100 150 200 250 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 Q 1 2 0 1 2 Q 2 2 0 1 2 Q 3 2 0 1 2 *Data for 2012 is as of Q3 Souce: DTZ Resarch Figure 6 Primary residential price by district, RMB/sq 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Heping Hedong Hexi Nankai Hebei Hongqiao Binhai *Date as of Q3 2012 Souce: DTZ Resarch Tianjin Q3 2012 www.dtz.com Property Times 6 Definitions Availability: Total floor space in properties marketed as available to let, whether physically vacant or occupied, and ready for occupation immediately. Availability Ratio: Total space currently available as a percentage of the total stock of floor space. Development Pipeline: Comprises two elements: 1. Floor space in course of development, defined as buildings being constructed or comprehensively refurbished to grade A standard. 2. Schemes with the potential to be built in the future, through having secured planning permission/development certification. Net Absorption: The change in the total of occupied floor space over a specified period of time, either positive or negative. New Supply: Total marketed grade A floor space which is ready for occupation now. Ready for occupation means practical completion, where either the building has been issued with an occupancy permit, where required, or where only fit-out is lacking. Prelet: A development leased or sold prior to completion. Prime Rent: The highest rent that could be achieved for a typical building/unit of the highest quality and specification in the best location to a tenant with a good (i.e. secure) covenant. (NB. This is a net rent, excluding service charge or tax, and is based on a standard lease, excluding exceptional deals for that particular market.) Rent: Gross transacted rents (unless otherwise specified), which excludes management fees and other outgoings. Prime Yield: The best (i.e. lowest) yield which could be expected for a typical building/unit of the highest quality and specification in the best location leased to a tenant with a good (i.e. secure) covenant. (NB. This is a net yield, which uses net income, after deducting all non-recoverable expenditure, divided by the purchase cost, excluding transaction costs and taxes.) Market Yield: Annual transacted rent as a percentage of the capital value of the property. Stock: Total accommodation in the commercial and public sectors both occupied and vacant. Take-up: Floor space acquired for occupation, including the following: (i) offices let/sold to an eventual occupier; (ii) developments pre-let/sold to an occupier; (iii) owner occupier purchase of a freehold or long leasehold. (NB. This includes subleases but excludes lease renewals.) Vacancy: Floor space that is empty, i.e. not occupied. It may be being marketed, or it may not (whether because a lessee is not occupying, it is being refurbished or it is deliberately being left empty by the landlord). Tianjin Q3 2012 www.dtz.com Property Times 7 Other DTZ Research Reports Other research reports can be downloaded from www.dtz.com/research. These include: Occupier Perspective Updates on occupational markets from an occupier perspective, with commentary, analysis, charts and data. Global Occupancy Costs Offices 2012 Obligations of Occupation Americas 2012 Obligations of Occupation Asia Pacific 2012 Obligations of Occupation EMEA 2012 Property Times Regular updates on occupational markets from a landlord perspective, with commentary, charts, data and forecasts. Coverage includes Asia Pacific, Bangkok, Beijing, Berlin, Brisbane, Bristol, Brussels, Budapest, Central London, Chengdu, Chongqing, Dalian, Edinburgh, Europe, Frankfurt, Glasgow, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Ho Chi Minh City, Hong Kong, India, Jakarta, Japan, Kuala Lumpur, Luxembourg, Madrid, Manchester, Melbourne, Milan, Nanjing, Newcastle, Paris, Poland, Prague, Qingdao, Rome, Seoul, Shanghai, Shenyang, Shenzhen, Singapore, Stockholm, Sydney, Taipei, Tianjin, Ukraine, Warsaw, Wuhan, Xian. Investment Market Update Regular updates on investment market activity, with commentary, significant deals, charts, data and forecasts. 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