房地产行业盈利模式专题系列报告之二—租金上行，朝花当拾

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2011ᑈ 10᳜ 10᮹ 䆕ࠌⷨお᡹ਞg㸠Ϯⷨおg᠓ഄѻ㸠Ϯ ᠓ഄѻ㸠ϮⲜ߽῵ᓣϧ乬㋏߫᡹ਞПѠ ⾳⾳䞥Ϟ㸠ˈᳱ㢅ᔧᣒ� ᔎѢ໻Ꮦ˄佪⃵˅� ᡩ䌘㽕⚍ Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 � � ଚϮഄѻᓔথ੠㒣㧹Ϯࡵ乎ᑨජᏖ࣪⥛ᦤछ੠㒣⌢㒧ᵘ䕀ൟDŽ៥೑ⱘජᏖ ࣪੠㄀ϝѻϮ㫀ࢗথሩϡᮁᦤछଚϮഄѻⱘՓ⫼䳔∖DŽҢ䭓ᳳᴹⳟˈ乘䅵 ᠓ഄѻ㸠ϮⱘЏ⌕ᇚ䗤⏤Ңㅔऩᮄ᠓ᓔথ৥ᦤկϔߛϡࡼѻՓ⫼Ⳍ݇᳡ࡵ 䕀࣪üü᳾ᴹⱘЏ⌕Ёˈᔧ✊гࣙᣀଚϮഄѻᣕ᳝੠㒣㧹DŽ � ᬓㄪぎに੠䰊↉ᗻկ∖य़࡯䗴៤ଚϮഄѻ⾳䞥ऎඳᗻϞ㸠˖ԣᅙⱘ䰤䌁੠ 䰤Ӌˈ䰊↉ᗻᇚ䚼ߚֱؐ੠ᡩ䌘䳔∖᣸ܹଚϮഄѻᏖഎDŽৠᯊˈଚϮഄѻ ᓔথ਼ᳳ䭓ˈ⦄᠓ऴ䫔ଂ↨䞡໻ˈ੠㒣⌢݇㘨ᑺ᳈໻ˈ಴ℸ 2008ᑈ䇗ᭈᳳ ᡩ䌘ϟ䰡໮˄ 08ᑈܼ೑ԣᅙᓔথᡩ䌘๲䗳 23% ˈݭᄫὐ 7%˅ˈ ᘶ໡䗳ᑺ᜶DŽ կᑨय़ࠊࠎ▔⾳䞥Ϟ⍼ˈ݊ЁḌᖗऎඳ⾳䞥໮Ϟ⍼䕗ᖿˈҞᑈѠᄷᑺˈҀ ≾ᑓ⏅Ӭ䋼ݭᄫὐ⾳䞥ߚ߿⦃↨Ϟछ 21.2%ǃ5.2%ǃ7.4%੠ 4.4%DŽ � ߯ᮄ㵡䌘Ꮉ݋ंУ䰏⹡㸠Ϯ䎼䍞থሩDŽ㸠Ϯᛇ㽕ᅲ⦄ᮄ亲䎗ˈЁ䭓ᳳ㵡䌘 ⏴䘧ⱘさ⸈ᰃ݇䬂DŽೳഄѸᯧϹḐⱘҬℒᴵӊՓĀ䖍ᣕ᳝䖍ᣓഄˈ䴴⿃㌃ ᠽᓴ㾘῵āⱘଚϮഄѻ䖤㧹ᮍᓣ䲒ҹ⫳ᄬDŽࡴϞ೑ݙ㵡䌘⏴䘧ऩϔˈ䫊㸠 ֵ䌋㋻ᓴˈ䖲ϛ䖒ㄝ໻ൟӕϮгᕔᕔ㽕∖ࡽֵᠬㄝ⏴䘧DŽ៥Ӏ䅸Ўˈབᵰ ᳾ᴹ REITSㄝ㵡䌘⏴䘧᳝᠔さ⸈ˈ㸠Ϯህৃ㛑㦋ᕫ䖯ϔℹ৥Ϟⱘぎ䯈DŽ � 亢䰽ᦤ⼎˖䌘䞥㋻ᓴ亢䰽˗ϧϮҎᠡंУ亢䰽˗䰤䌋ǃ䰤䌁ৃ㛑㫧ᓊࠄଚ Ϯഄѻ乚ඳⱘ亢䰽˗䚼ߚഄᮍᬓᑰ䖛ߚ㒣㧹ජᏖˈ䗴៤ೳഄկᑨᣕ㓁أ໻ 亢䰽˄՟བೳഄկᑨ↨䕗໻ⱘᵁᎲ੠䴦ቯˈ䖛এϸᑈᑇഛᄷݭᄫὐ⾳䞥๲ 䭓ߚ߿া᳝ 0.06%੠ 0.03%˅˗㒣⌢ϟ⒥䗴៤ଚϮഄѻ䳔∖໻ᐙϟ䰡ⱘ亢䰽DŽ � 㸠Ϯᡩ䌘䆘㑻ঞԄؐ˖ଚϮഄѻᣕ᳝੠㒣㧹ҢЁ䭓ᳳᴹⳟᰃ㸠ϮⱘЏ⌕ˈ ⷁᳳḌᖗऎඳ⾳䞥Ϟछг䕗ᖿˈ៥Ӏ㒭ќ݊ĀᔎѢ໻Ꮦāⱘᡩ䌘䆘㑻DŽԚ ᭈԧ䌘䞥⦃๗㋻ᓴˈ㒃ᣕ᳝㉏ⱘӕϮ㽕М⡎⡆থሩ䗳ᑺˈ㽕М⡎⡆䌘䞥ᅝ ܼᗻˈϸ㗙ݐ乒䕗䲒DŽ಴ℸˈ㛑Џࡼ਌ᓩҎ⌕ˈҹԣᅙᓔথᓹ㸹ଚϮᠽᓴ 䌘䞥㔎ষⱘ㓐ড়ԧᓔথ῵ᓣؐᕫ䅸ৃDŽᠽᓴ㱑᜶ˈԚֱ᳝Ḍᖗ䌘⑤Ϩ᮴䌘 䞥य़࡯ⱘ῵ᓣгؐᕫ݇⊼DŽ៥Ӏ᥼㤤䞥㵡㸫ǃЁफᓎ䆒੠⌺ϰ䞥ḹDŽ 䞡⚍݀ৌԄؐ↨䕗ঞᡩ䌘䆘㑻 㙵Ӌ EPS˄ܗ˅ PE ㅔ ⿄ ˄ܗ˅ 10 11E 12E 10 11E 12E 䆘㑻 䞥㵡㸫 6.1 0.59 0.58 0.71 10.3 10.5 8.6 фܹ ⌺ϰ䞥ḹ 8.08 0.57 0.64 0.6 14.2 12.6 13.5 фܹ Ёफᓎ䆒 7.69 0.63 0.89 1.2 12.2 8.6 6.4 фܹ Ё೑೑䌌 9.16 0.12 0.17 0.19 75.6 52.4 47.1 ๲ᣕ ࣫䖄ᅲϮ 2.97 0.06 0.12 0.14 49.5 24.75 21.2 ๲ᣕ Ϫ㣖㙵ӑ 12.06 0.75 0.93 1.27 16.1 13.0 9.5 ᳾䆘㑻 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳ˈ㙵ӋЎ 2011ᑈ 9᳜ 30᮹ᬊⲬӋˈϪ㣖㙵ӑⲜ߽乘⌟Ўϔ㟈乘ᳳ 䰜㘾� ⬉䆱˖010-60838249 䚂ӊ˖chencong@citics.com ᠻϮ䆕к˖S1010510120047 㘨㋏Ҏ˖Ҭ⨰� ⬉䆱˖010-60836707 䚂ӊ˖yufu@citics.com Ⳍᇍᣛ᭄㸼⦄� �20 �15 �10 �5 0 5 10 110104 110308 110506 110704 110829 Ёᷛ300 ᠓ഄѻ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳 Ⳍ݇ⷨお� 1 ljˊ᠓ഄѻ㸠Ϯ 2011ᑈಯᄷᑺㄪ⬹—䞣Ӌ 䇗ᭈПϟⱘᡩ䌘ᴎӮNJ ....... 2011-09-05 2 ljˊ᠓ഄѻ㸠ϮⲜ߽῵ᓣϧ乬㋏߫᡹ਞП ϔ ü Ң ೳ ഄ 㑶 ߽ ࠄ ક ⠠ 㑶 ߽ NJ ............................................... 2011-08-05 3 ljˊ᠓ഄѻ㸠Ϯ 2011ᑈѠᄷᑺᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹ü ぎ䇗ǃ䍙䇗ǃ䇗䍙NJ ............2011-03-07 ᠓ഄѻ㸠ϮⲜ߽῵ᓣϧ乬㋏߫᡹ਞПϔ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ ⳂⳂ ᔩ ᡩ䌘㘮⛺ ...................................................................................................................................................................... 1 ᡩ䌘䘏䕥 .............................................................................................................................................................. 1 亢䰽಴㋴ .............................................................................................................................................................. 1 ଚϮഄѻ㸠Ϯ⦄⢊ঞথሩ䍟࢓ .................................................................................................................................. 1 ජᏖ࣪⥛ᦤछঞ㒣⌢䕀ൟՓଚϮഄѻ䖢ᴹࡴ䗳থሩᳳ .................................................................................. 1 㸠Ϯ⦄⢊˖ᓔথঞᣕ᳝ӕϮ໮Ўԣᅙᓔথଚ䕀ൟ㗠ᴹ .................................................................................. 3 ݭᄫὐ⠽Ϯ——䰊↉ᗻǃ㒧ᵘᗻկᑨϡ䎇 ...................................................................................................... 4 ଚϮഄѻথሩⷁᳳࠎ▔಴㋴ .................................................................................................................................... 10 ⷁᳳ໪䚼ࠎ▔಴㋴——Ⳍᇍֵ䌋⦃๗᳈ࡴ〇ᅮ ............................................................................................ 10 ⷁᳳ໪䚼ࠎ▔಴㋴——䰤䌁ᬓㄪՓᕫ䳔∖ℸ⍜ᕐ䭓 .................................................................................... 10 ⷁᳳݙ೼ࠎ▔಴㋴——䋶ᆠߚ䜡੠䌘ᴀ෸റᏺᴹ䜡㕂ൟ䳔∖..................................................................... 11 ⷁᳳḌᖗࠎ▔಴㋴——⾳䞥Ϟ⍼ .................................................................................................................... 13 ଚϮഄѻথሩⱘ䭓ᳳ⫊乜੠ᴎ䘛 ............................................................................................................................ 15 ᄬ䞣⠽Ϯ໻㾘῵ᣕ᳝Ⳍᇍೄ䲒 ........................................................................................................................ 15 ๲䞣ଚϮೳഄ㦋পফೳഄߎ䅽㾘߭᠔䰤 ........................................................................................................ 16 REITs㵡䌘⦃๗ᄬ೼Ёᳳさ⸈ৃ㛑 ................................................................................................................. 18 亢䰽ᦤ⼎ .................................................................................................................................................................... 23 㸠Ϯᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹Ϣ䞡⚍݀ৌߚᵤ ................................................................................................................................ 25 ଚϮ῵ᓣⱘ⧚ᛇḋᴀ——ϡ㒃㊍ձ䌪ഄ↉ˈৃ໡ࠊⱘ਌㒇Ҏ⌕㛑࡯......................................................... 25 ⦄䞥⌕ㅵ⧚ⱘ⧚ᛇḋᴀ——㵡䌘⏴䘧䗮⬙ˈ䫔ଂ੠ᣕ᳝ᑊ䞡..................................................................... 29 䞡⚍݀ৌߚᵤ .................................................................................................................................................... 32 ᠓ഄѻ㸠ϮⲜ߽῵ᓣϧ乬㋏߫᡹ਞПϔ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ ᦦᦦ೒Ⳃᔩ ೒ 1˖᠓ഄѻଚϮ῵ᓣϢᬊⲞ⥛⼎ᛣ೒.................................................................................................................... 2 ೒ 2˖Ҏഛ GDP੠ৃᬃ䜡ᬊܹ.................................................................................................................................. 2 ೒ 3˖Ё೑໻ජᏖ᭄䞣ব䖕 ....................................................................................................................................... 2 ೒ 4˖2010ഄ㑻ᏖঞҹϞҎഛ GDP䖒ᷛජᏖ᭄䞣................................................................................................. 3 ೒ 5˖Ё೑⼒Ӯ⍜䌍ક䳊ଂᘏ乱䭓਼ᳳ๲䭓⢊މ.................................................................................................... 3 ೒ 6˖ԣᅙᓔথ㉏݀ৌ੠ᣕ᳝㉏݀ৌ䖛এ 4ᑈᑇഛ ROE....................................................................................... 5 ೒ 7˖2010ᑈ৘㉏⠽Ϯ䫔ଂ䴶⿃㒧ᵘ....................................................................................................................... 5 ೒ 8˖ܼ೑ࡲ݀ὐᓔথᡩ䌘乱ঞ๲䗳........................................................................................................................ 5 ೒ 9˖ܼ೑ࡲ݀ὐ䫔ଂ䴶⿃ঞ๲䗳............................................................................................................................ 5 ೒ 10˖ܼ೑ࡲ݀ὐկ∖ᏂঞᮄᓔᎹ๲䗳.................................................................................................................. 5 ೒ 11˖ϔѠ㒓ජᏖӬ䋼ݭᄫὐぎ㕂⥛ⱘϟ䰡 .......................................................................................................... 5 ೒ 12˖࣫Ҁଚࡲ⫼ഄ៤Ѹ㾘῵ব࣪.......................................................................................................................... 6 ೒ 13˖࣫Ҁ 07ᑈ㟇Ҟଚࡲ⫼ഄ៤Ѹऎඳ................................................................................................................ 6 ೒ 14˖࣫Ҁݭᄫὐ䭓਼ᳳկ䳔.................................................................................................................................. 6 ೒ 15˖࣫ҀӬ䋼ݭᄫὐޔ਌㒇Ϣ⾳䞥ব࣪.............................................................................................................. 7 ೒ 16˖Ϟ⍋Ӭ䋼ݭᄫὐޔ਌㒇Ϣ⾳䞥ব࣪.............................................................................................................. 7 ೒ 17˖Ϟ⍋ݭᄫὐ䭓਼ᳳկ䳔.................................................................................................................................. 7 ೒ 18˖Ϟ⍋ଚࡲ⫼ഄ៤Ѹ㾘῵ব࣪.......................................................................................................................... 7 ೒ 19˖Ϟ⍋ 07ᑈҹᴹଚࡲ⫼ഄ៤Ѹ㒧ᵘ................................................................................................................ 7 ೒ 20˖ᑓᎲ㒃ଚϮ䞥㵡⫼ഄ៤Ѹ㾘῵ব࣪.............................................................................................................. 8 ೒ 21˖℺∝㒃ଚϮ䞥㵡⫼ഄ៤Ѹ㾘῵ব࣪.............................................................................................................. 8 ೒ 22˖Ё೑Ϣথ䖒೑ᆊ㄀ϝѻϮऴ GDP↨䞡........................................................................................................ 8 ೒ 23˖Ё೑ϝ໻ѻϮ㒧ᵘঞ਌㒇ህϮҎ᭄ऴ↨...................................................................................................... 8 ೒ 24˖Ϫ⬠ҷ㸼೑ᆊ㄀ϝѻϮҢϮҎਬऴ↨.......................................................................................................... 9 ೒ 25˖᳜ᑺ䫔ଂ๲䗳 ............................................................................................................................................... 11 ೒ 26˖࣫Ҁ/Ϟ⍋⬆㑻ݭᄫὐぎ㕂⥛ ...................................................................................................................... 11 ೒ 27˖࣫Ҁ੠ܼ೑᠓Ӌᑈ๲䭓ᇍ↨........................................................................................................................ 11 ೒ 28˖催ᬊܹ᠋੠᳔Ԣᬊܹ᠋ᑈҎഛৃᬃ䜡ᬊܹ................................................................................................ 11 ೒ 29˖䌘ᴀ෸റ—— 䴲䞥㵡㉏ᡩ䌘ߚᏗ.............................................................................................................. 12 ೒ 30˖GDP๲䗳䭓ᳳϡঞM2๲䗳ࡽ᥼䗮㚔 ....................................................................................................... 12 ೒ 31˖2011ᑈ催ޔؐҎ㕸ᡩ䌘ϡࡼѻব࣪䍟࢓ ................................................................................................... 12 ೒ 32˖2011ᑈ催ޔؐҎ㕸᠓ഄѻᏖഎᡩ䌘ᮍᓣ䕀ব ........................................................................................... 12 ೒ 33˖࣫ҀӬ䋼ݭᄫὐ⾳䞥˄Ꮊ䕈˅ঞぎ㕂⥛䍄࢓............................................................................................ 13 ೒ 34˖Ϟ⍋Ӭ䋼ݭᄫὐ⾳䞥˄Ꮊ䕈˅ঞぎ㕂⥛䍄࢓............................................................................................ 13 ೒ 35˖ᑓᎲӬ䋼ݭᄫὐ⾳䞥˄Ꮊ䕈˅ঞぎ㕂⥛䍄࢓............................................................................................ 13 ೒ 36˖⏅ഇӬ䋼ݭᄫὐ⾳䞥˄Ꮊ䕈˅ঞぎ㕂⥛䍄࢓............................................................................................ 13 ೒ 37˖2011ᑈ㄀ѠᄷᑺϾජᏖӬ䋼ݭᄫὐ⾳䞥ಲ᡹⥛ ....................................................................................... 14 ೒ 38˖℺∝Ӭ䋼ݭᄫὐ⾳䞥˄Ꮊ䕈˅ঞぎ㕂⥛䍄࢓............................................................................................ 14 ᠓ഄѻ㸠ϮⲜ߽῵ᓣϧ乬㋏߫᡹ਞПϔ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ ೒ 39˖࣫ҀӬ䋼䳊ଂ⠽Ϯ佪ሖ⾳䞥........................................................................................................................ 14 ೒ 40˖Ϟ⍋Ӭ䋼䳊ଂ⠽Ϯ佪ሖ⾳䞥........................................................................................................................ 14 ೒ 41˖⏅ഇӬ䋼䳊ଂ⠽Ϯ佪ሖ⾳䞥........................................................................................................................ 14 ೒ 42˖ᵁᎲӬ䋼䳊ଂ⠽Ϯ佪ሖ⾳䞥........................................................................................................................ 14 ೒ 43˖␃㙵ϞᏖ݀ৌϢ A㙵ᡩ䌘⠽Ϯऴ↨↨䕗 ................................................................................................... 15 ೒ 44˖݌ൟᓔথ㉏੠ᣕ᳝㉏݀ৌᘏ䌘ѻ਼䕀⥛ব࣪............................................................................................ 15 ೒ 45˖2010ᑈೳഄߎ䅽䞥੠ഄᮍϔ㠀乘ㅫᬊܹ................................................................................................... 16 ೒ 46˖Ё೑೑䌌 ROEϢ㸠Ϯഛؐ↨䕗.................................................................................................................. 17 ೒ 47˖Ё೑೑䌌ᡩܹ䌘ᴀಲ᡹⥛............................................................................................................................ 17 ೒ 48˖ԣᅙ/ݭᄫὐ/ଚϮկ∖↨˄䴲ḌᖗଚϮഄᑊϡ⿔㔎˅.............................................................................. 17 ೒ 49˖࣫Ҁ⬆㑻ݭᄫὐ⾳䞥੠ぎ㕂⥛.................................................................................................................... 17 ೒ 50˖⌺ϰ䞥ḹ 1995ᑈ-2010ᑈ㧹Ϯᘏᬊܹ੠ޔ߽⍺ব࣪䍟࢓........................................................................ 18 ೒ 51˖REITs䖤㧹῵ᓣ ............................................................................................................................................ 18 ೒ 52˖2001ᑈ-2010ᑈ㕢೑ REITSᏖഎᘏᏖؐ੠Ͼ᭄ ....................................................................................... 19 ೒ 53˖1999-2008ᑈϔѯ REITS乍Ⳃⱘ 10ᑈЁؐߚ㑶ಲ᡹⥛........................................................................... 22 ೒ 54˖2006ᑈ-2010ᑈ㕢೑ REITS 1ᑈǃ3ᑈǃ5ᑈ໡ড়ಲ᡹⥛.................................................................... 22 ೒ 55˖࣫Ҁ/Ϟ⍋⬆㑻ݭᄫὐ⾳䞥 .......................................................................................................................... 23 ೒ 56˖⏅ഇ/ᑓᎲ⬆㑻ݭᄫὐ⾳䞥 .......................................................................................................................... 23 ೒ 57˖Ёफᓎ䆒᳝ᙃ䋳؎⥛ᄷᑺব࣪.................................................................................................................... 24 ೒ 58˖ᎹϮುऎ㉏݀ৌⱘ᳝ᙃ䋳؎Ⳍᇍ㾘῵ব࣪................................................................................................ 24 ೒ 59˖佭␃Ḍᖗऎⱘݭᄫὐ⾳䞥ᣛ᭄Ϟ⍼᳈ᖿ.................................................................................................... 26 ೒ 60˖ϛ䖒ᕅ䰶ⱘ㾖ᕅҎ⃵੠⼼᠓ᬊܹব࣪........................................................................................................ 28 ೒ 61˖ϛ䖒ⱘ䫔ଂ㾘῵ ........................................................................................................................................... 28 ೒ 62˖Ⳃࠡ๗ݙ໪ଚϮഄѻ㒣㧹㵡䌘⏴䘧ᇍ↨.................................................................................................... 30 ೒ 63˖ϸ݀ৌ㒣㧹ᗻ⦄䞥⌕ޔ乱ব࣪(ग़ᑈ/03ᑈ) ............................................................................................... 30 ೒ 64˖ϛ⾥੠Ё೑೑䌌˄ⷁᳳ䋳؎-䋻Ꮥ䌘䞥˅ .................................................................................................. 30 ೒ 65˖ϛ⾥੠Ё೑೑䌌ⱘޔ؎ࡵ............................................................................................................................ 31 ೒ 66˖ϛ⾥੠Ё೑೑䌌ⱘᬊܹ੠ޔ߽⍺ ˄ग़ᑈ/03ᑈ˅.................................................................................... 31 ೒ 67˖ᅱ啭ഄѻⱘ䌘ѻ㾘῵๲䗳੠ᡩ䌘⠽Ϯ๲䗳................................................................................................ 31 ೒ 68˖ᅱ啭ഄѻⱘᬊܹ੠Ϯ㒽๲䭓........................................................................................................................ 31 ೒ 69˖ජᏖ࣪ϡৠ䰊↉ˈϡৠⱘӬ⾔ଚϮ῵ᓣ.................................................................................................... 32 ᠓ഄѻ㸠ϮⲜ߽῵ᓣϧ乬㋏߫᡹ਞПϔ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 㸼㸼ḐⳂᔩ 㸼 1˖Ё೑᠓ഄѻ㸠Ϯ㒚ߚ㒧ᵘҷ㸼........................................................................................................................ 3 㸼 2˖㕢೑᠓ഄѻ㸠Ϯ㒚ߚ㒧ᵘ................................................................................................................................ 4 㸼 3˖Ё೑Ϣথ䖒೑ᆊⱘҎഛݭᄫὐऴ᳝䴶⿃ᇍ↨................................................................................................ 9 㸼 4˖᳾ᴹЁ೑Ӭ䋼ݭᄫὐ䳔∖ⱘ⌟ㅫ.................................................................................................................... 9 㸼 5˖ଚકԣ᠓᠓䌋ᬓㄪ䇗ᭈϔ㾜.......................................................................................................................... 10 㸼 6˖佭␃ݙ᠓㙵៾㟇 2010ᑈᡩ䌘⠽ϮঞऴϢᄬ䋻П↨ .................................................................................... 15 㸼 7˖ഄᮍ䋶ᬓᬊܹᚙމ ......................................................................................................................................... 16 㸼 8˖৘ഄᬓᑰೳഄߎ䅽䞥ᬓㄪ䍟Ϲ...................................................................................................................... 16 㸼 9˖REITsⳌᇍѢ᠓ഄѻⳈ᥹ᡩ䌘ⱘӬ࢓........................................................................................................... 19 㸼 10˖㕢೑Џ㽕 REITs݀ৌᚙމㅔҟ ................................................................................................................... 19 㸼 11˖㕢೑ REITSⱘ⿢ᬊࠊᑺ .............................................................................................................................. 20 㸼 12˖㕢೑ REITSⱘ⊩㾘ࠊᑺ .............................................................................................................................. 21 㸼 13˖㕢೑ REIT㙵⼼ಲ᡹⥛੠ߚ㑶ಲ᡹⥛......................................................................................................... 21 㸼 14˖2010-2011ᑈ࣫Ҁ CBDݭᄫὐࡼᗕ⾳䞥ಲ᡹⥛˄ҹᏖؐ䆘Ԅ䫔ଂӋЎ෎⸔˅.................................... 22 㸼 15˖䖥ᳳ䚼ߚѠ㒓ජᏖᓎ䆒㓐ড়ԧ䅵ߦ............................................................................................................ 24 㸼 16˖ҷ㸼ජᏖॳഄᷛ乍Ⳃ༅䋹Ḝ՟.................................................................................................................... 24 㸼 17˖ϡৠජᏖӬ䋼ݭᄫὐⱘ⾳䞥ᄷᑺ⦃↨ব࣪ᚙމ........................................................................................ 25 㸼 18˖⃶Ф䈋ⱘҎ⌕᭄᥂ ....................................................................................................................................... 26 㸼 19˖࣫Ҁ䖥ᑈᴹḌᖗऎଚࡲ⫼ഄߎ䅽㾘῵ϡ໻ԚӋḐሙ催ϡϟ .................................................................... 26 㸼 20˖৘㉏Ϯᗕ݋໛णৠ԰⫼˄A˖ᔎ⚜ᬃᣕ B˖ϔ㠀ᬃᣕ C˖䕗ᔅᬃᣕ˅ .................................................. 27 㸼 21˖Ё೑ݙഄⱘජᏖЁᖗব䖕Ḝ՟.................................................................................................................... 27 㸼 22˖ܼ೑䰶㒓ݙᕅ䰶ˈ䫊ᐩ੠ܼ೑⬉ᕅ㓐ড়ᬊܹ............................................................................................ 28 㸼 23˖䖾ᢰᬓᑰ਌ᓩѻϮ䲚㕸ⱘࡾ࡯.................................................................................................................... 28 㸼 24˖佭␃ᮄᏖ䬛ᓎ䆒߫㸼 ................................................................................................................................... 29 㸼 25˖ϛ䖒ഄѻ៤Ѹೳഄ⑶Ӌ⥛Ԣ........................................................................................................................ 29 ᠓ഄѻ㸠ϮⲜ߽῵ᓣϧ乬㋏߫᡹ਞПѠ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2011ᑈ 10᳜ 10᮹ 1 ᡩᡩ䌘㘮⛺ ᡩ䌘䘏䕥 䱣ⴔ᠓ഄѻ䇗᥻ⱘ䗤ℹ⏅ܹˈԣᅙഄѻⱘ䳔∖㹿य़ᡥˈଚϮഄѻᡩ䌘ݡϔ⃵⛁ᑺ催ӕDŽҢⷁᳳⳟˈଚϮ ഄѻֵ䌋⦃๗Ⳍᇍ〇ᅮˈϨЁⷁᳳկᑨⱘϡ䎇ᇐ㟈ҹݭᄫὐЎҷ㸼ⱘଚϮ⠽Ϯ⾳䞥ߎ⦄Ϟ⍼ࡴ䗳ˈ䖭ѯг䯈 ᥹ࠎ▔њ䌘ᴀ෸റᢺ៾ϟⱘଚϮഄѻᡩ䌘˗Ң䭓ᳳⳟˈජᏖ࣪䖯⿟ⱘϡᮁ⏅ܹҹঞ㒣⌢῵ᓣ৥㄀ϝѻϮ䕀ൟ ՓᕫଚϮഄѻথሩ䖯ܹࠄњࡴ䗳䰊↉DŽԚࠊ㑺ଚϮഄѻ㸠Ϯ䭓ᳳথሩⱘ಴㋴ᑊϡᰃᘏ䳔∖ˈ㗠ᰃ㵡䌘⏴䘧ⱘ ⣁じˈREITSㄝ߯ᮄൟ㵡䌘⏴䘧ⱘ䖯ሩ㓧᜶DŽ ೼䖭ḋⱘᏖഎ⦃๗Ёˈ៥Ӏ䅸Ў㛑໳䗖ᑨ⦃๗ⱘଚϮഄѻᓔথঞᣕ᳝ӕϮᑨ䆹݋໛ܼ䴶ᓔথ㛑࡯ˈ㛑໳ ҹԣᅙݏଚˈড়⧚᥻ࠊ⦄䞥⌕ⱘ⌕ߎッⱘ῵ᓣˈ㗠⬅Ѣ㵡䌘⏴䘧ⱘऩϔ࣪ՓᕫĀҹ⾳ݏ⾳ā῵ᓣ㱑✊〇ᅮˈ Ԛ㔎УᏖؐ៤䭓ᗻDŽϔᮍ䴶៥Ӏ䞡㾚⿔㔎ഄ↉ⱘӋؐˈϔᮍ䴶៥Ӏг䅸ৃ෍㚆Ҏ⌕੠Āҹଂݏ⾳āⱘ῵ᓣDŽ 亢䰽಴㋴ 䌘䞥㋻ᓴ亢䰽˗ϧϮҎᠡंУ亢䰽˗䰤䌋ǃ䰤䌁ৃ㛑㫧ᓊࠄଚϮഄѻ乚ඳⱘ亢䰽˗䚼ߚഄᮍᬓᑰ䖛ߚ㒣 㧹ජᏖˈ䗴៤ೳഄկᑨᣕ㓁أ໻亢䰽˄՟བೳഄկᑨ↨䕗໻ⱘᵁᎲ੠䴦ቯˈ䖛এϸᑈᑇഛᄷݭᄫὐ⾳䞥๲䭓 ߚ߿া᳝ 0.06%੠ 0.03%˅˗ 㒣⌢ϟ⒥䗴៤ଚϮഄѻ䳔∖໻ᐙϟ䰡ⱘ亢䰽DŽ ଚϮഄѻ㸠Ϯ⦄⢊ঞথሩ䍟࢓ ජᏖ࣪⥛ᦤछঞ㒣⌢䕀ൟՓଚϮഄѻ䖢ᴹࡴ䗳থሩᳳ Ң೑໪᠓ഄѻᏖഎথሩ৆ᴹⳟˈᭈϾ᠓ഄѻᏖഎⱘথሩߚЎϝϾ໻ⱘ䰊↉ˈ೼䖭ϝϾ䰊↉ЁϡৠⱘⲜ߽ ῵ᓣߚ߿৘乚亢偮DŽ ೼᠓ഄѻথሩⱘ߱ᳳ䰊↉ˈᓔথ῵ᓣऴЏᇐഄԡˈⲜ߽㛑࡯᳔ᔎDŽ೼ජᏖ࣪⥛໘Ѣ 10%-50%ⱘऎඳЁ ᯊˈ䱣ⴔҎষ໻䞣⍠ܹජᏖˈᇍѢ᠓ሟⱘ䳔∖᮹⏤๲䭓ˈ᠓ഄѻᓔথ㸠Ϯ䗤⏤݈䍋ˈ㸠Ϯ߽⍺⥛г໘Ѣ催∈ ᑇDŽ೼᠓ഄѻ߱ᳳ䰊↉ৢᳳˈㅔऩ᠓ഄѻ᳡ࡵϮࡵ˄བϔ᠟䫔ଂ੠㒣㑾Ϯࡵ˅ᓔྟߎ⦄ᑊᕫࠄϔᅮথሩDŽ 䱣ⴔජᏖ࣪䖯⿟থሩˈ᠓ഄѻ㸠Ϯ䗤⏤䖯ܹЁᳳ䰊↉ˈජᏖ࣪⥛໘Ѣ 50%-70%П䯈ˈℸᯊ᠓ഄѻᓔথ ੠ᣕ᳝῵ᓣऴЏᇐDŽᮄ᠓ᮄ๲䳔∖๲䗳ᓔྟϟ䰡ˈଚϮഄѻࡴ䗳থሩˈᣕ᳝㉏⠽ϮᬊⲞϡᮁᦤ催DŽ೼䖭Ͼ䰊 ↉ˈ䩜ᇍଚϮ⠽Ϯǃ䆘Ԅㄝᮄ݈᳡ࡵϮᓔྟ݈䍋ˈѠ᠟᠓㒣㑾Ϯࡵ䗤⏤䍙䍞ϔ᠟᠓ҷ⧚䫔ଂϮࡵˈ᳡ࡵϮ䞡 ᖗᓔྟ৥ᄬ䞣᠓䕀⿏DŽ ೼ජᏖ࣪ৢᳳˈ᠓ഄѻ᳡ࡵ੠ᣕ᳝῵ᓣऴ᥂ЏᇐഄԡˈℸᯊජᏖ࣪⥛ᇚ䖒ࠄ 70%ҹϞDŽ໻䞣ߎ⦄ⱘᴎ ᵘᡩ䌘㗙੠ϾҎᡩ䌘㗙ᇍഄѻᡩ䌘ᦤߎᮄⱘ䳔∖ˈଚϮഄѻᡩ䌘⏴䘧໮ḋ࣪ˈ䌘ѻㅵ⧚㉏᳡ࡵ䗤⏤ߎ⦄ᑊऴ ᥂ϔᅮ↨՟DŽ ᠓ഄѻ㸠ϮⲜ߽῵ᓣϧ乬㋏߫᡹ਞПѠ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2011ᑈ 10᳜ 10᮹ 2 ೒ 1˖᠓ഄѻଚϮ῵ᓣϢᬊⲞ⥛⼎ᛣ೒ ᠓ഄѻᓔথ ᠓ഄѻᣕ᳝ ᠓ഄѻ᳡ࡵ ᓔথ῵ᓣऴЏᇐ ᓔথ�ᣕ᳝ ᣕ᳝�᳡ࡵ ᬊ Ⲟ ⥛ ජᏖ࣪⥛ 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖੠৯੼䆶ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ៾㟇 2010ᑈ ៥ˈ೑ජᏖ࣪⥛Ў 49.7% ҡˈ✊໘Ѣᖿ䗳ජᏖ࣪䖯⿟ЁDŽ1978ᑈҹᴹ ៥ˈ೑ජᏖ࣪⥛Ң 17.9% ᦤछࠄⳂࠡⱘ 49.7%ˈᏆ㒣䖯ܹњᖿ䗳ජᏖ࣪䰊↉DŽ乘䅵៥೑Ҟৢ↣ᑈජᏖ࣪⥛ҡ✊Ӯҹᑈ 1%ⱘ䗳ᑺ䗦๲DŽ ೼ 2010ᑈ 4᳜⼒⾥䰶থᏗⱘljᅣ㾖㒣⌢㪱ⲂкNJЁᦤࠄ Āˈࠄ 2015ᑈˈЁ೑ⱘජᏖ࣪⥛Ў 52.28% 2ˈ020ᑈ Ў 57.67%ˈ2030ᑈЎ 67.81%DŽ㗠 68%Ꮊেৃ㛑ᰃЁ೑᳾ᴹ 20ᑈජᏖ࣪থሩⱘ乊䚼ˈℸৢජᏖ࣪∈ᑇᇚ೼ 䕗䭓ϔϾᯊᳳ㓈ᣕ೼䖭ϔ∈ᑇDŽā䖭гᛣੇⴔ䰸њϾ߿ϔ㒓ජᏖП໪ˈЁ೑ජᏖ࣪∈ᑇ䖬᳝䕗໻ⱘᦤछぎ䯈DŽ ජᏖ࣪ⱘϡৠ䰊↉ᇍԣᅙঞଚϮഄѻⱘ֗䖯ᰃϡৠⱘDŽ೼ජᏖ࣪߱ᳳˈҎষ⌕৥ජᏖˈህϮ㒧ᵘ䗤⏤Ң ㄀ϔѻϮ䕀⿏ࠄ㄀ѠѻϮݡ䕀⿏ࠄ㄀ϝѻϮˈᇍሙԣ䳔∖ѻ⫳њ⿃ᵕᕅડDŽԚᇍѢජᏖᴹ䇈ˈ೼⒵䎇ሙԣࡳ 㛑ⱘৠᯊˈ᳈䞡㽕ⱘᰃᦤկ⫳ѻ⌏ࡼঞଚϮ⌏ࡼⱘഎ᠔ˈ಴ℸѻ⫳њᇍѢݭᄫὐǃ䳊ଂ⠽Ϯⱘ䳔∖DŽ೼ජᏖ থሩ䖛⿟ЁܜԣᅙৢଚϮⱘ⦄䈵г䕗Ў໮㾕DŽ ೒ 2˖Ҏഛ GDP੠ৃᬃ䜡ᬊܹ 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 ҎഛGDP ජ䬛ሙ⇥ᆊᒁҎഛৃᬃ䜡ᬊܹ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Wind ೒ 3˖Ё೑໻ජᏖ᭄䞣ব䖕 85 88 109 124 15 20 35 42 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1995 2000 2005 2010 ᏖऎҎষ100ϛҹϞ ᏖऎҎষ200ϛҹϞ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ㒳䅵ሔ ᳝ⷨお㸼ᯢˈҎഛ GDP೼ 8000㕢ܗҹϟᯊˈԣᅙᰃᏖഎⱘḌᖗˈЏ⌕ѻક䛑ᇚೈ㒩ԣᅙሩᓔDŽ೼Ҏഛ GDP䖒ࠄ 8000㕢ܗⱘ㒣⌢ᅲԧЁˈଚ⫼ϡࡼѻӮ៤ЎഄѻϮⱘЏ㾦DŽҹ㕢೑Ў՟ˈଚϮഄѻⱘᏖഎ㾘῵໻ 㑺ᰃԣᅙⱘ 2סDŽ៾㟇 2010ᑈˈ៥೑Ҏഛ GDP˄ᣝܼᏖㅫ˅೼ 8000㕢ܗঞҹϞⱘජᏖ᳝ 38Ͼˈ㗠ᣝ✻Ꮦ 䕪ऎ䅵ㅫⱘҎഛ GDP䍙䖛 8000㕢ܗⱘජᏖ䖒ࠄњ 61Ͼˈ䖭Ͼ᭄䞣೼ҹ↣ᑈ 2ϾᎺেⱘ䗳ᑺ䗦๲ˈජᏖ࣪ ᠓ഄѻ㸠ϮⲜ߽῵ᓣϧ乬㋏߫᡹ਞПѠ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2011ᑈ 10᳜ 10᮹ 3 䖛⿟Ё㄀ϝѻϮⱘᠽᓴҹঞҎഛৃᬃ䜡ᬊܹⱘϡᮁᦤछᇚᇍҹݭᄫὐ੠䳊ଂ⠽ϮЎҷ㸼ⱘଚϮഄѻ䳔∖ѻ ⫳ᣕ㓁ࠎ▔DŽ ೒ 4˖2010ഄ㑻ᏖঞҹϞҎഛ GDP䖒ᷛජᏖ᭄䞣 38 17 60 120 52 8000㕢ܗҹϞ 6000-8000㕢ܗ 4000-6000㕢ܗ 2000-4000㕢ܗ 2000㕢ܗҹϟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ㒳䅵ሔ ೒ 5˖Ё೑⼒Ӯ⍜䌍ક䳊ଂᘏ乱䭓਼ᳳ๲䭓⢊މ 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0 5 10 15 20 ⼒Ӯ⍜䌍ક䳊ଂᘏ乱˄ϛғ˅ ৠ↨˄ে䕈˅ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Wind 㸠㸠Ϯ⦄⢊˖ᓔথঞᣕ᳝ӕϮ໮Ўԣᅙᓔথଚ䕀ൟ㗠ᴹ ϹḐᛣНᴹ䆆ˈЁ೑㒃ଚϮഄѻᓔথ੠ᣕ᳝ӕϮⳌᇍ䕗ᇥˈ䖭ᰃϢ៥೑᠔໘ⱘජᏖ࣪䰊↉᳝݇DŽᔧජᏖ ࣪໘Ѣ䍋ℹ䰊↉ঞ催䗳থሩ䰊↉ᯊˈජᏖҎষⱘ㝼㚔੠Ҏষ৥໻ජᏖ䖕⿏Փᕫԣᅙഄѻ䳔∖Ϣկᑨ㔎ষࡴ ໻ˈ㗠ଚࡵഄѻⱘ䳔∖㽕⒲ৢѢሙԣ䳔∖ⱘࠄᴹDŽԣᅙᓔথ䮼ᾯⳌᇍ䕗ԢˈᓔথӕϮᆍᯧϞ᠟ˈ೼կϡᑨ∖ ⱘᏖഎ⦃๗Ё䫔ଂ᳔Ў⹂ᅮˈ乘ଂࠊᑺгՓᕫԣᅙᓔথৃҹ催ᴴᴚ䖯㸠ˈ਼䕀੠ಲ᡹⥛䛑Ⳍᇍ䕗催˗㗠ଚϮ ഄѻᓔথ䮼ᾯ催ˈ䳔∖Ⳍᇍ䲒ҹᡞᦵˈ≝⎔䌘䞥䞣໻ˈಲ᡹਼ᳳ䕗䭓ˈⷁᳳಲ᡹⥛䕗ԢDŽ಴ℸˈ⦄೼ⱘଚϮ ഄѻᓔথଚᕔᕔ䍋ᆊѢԣᅙᓔথଚˈ಴ЎഄഫЁ㽕∖