趋向在美国食品供应链子(PPT34)(1)

TrendsintheU.S.FoodSupplyChainDr.KennethC.ClaytonUSDAAgriculturalMarketingServiceWorldUnionofWholesaleMarketsSeptember19,2005TrendsintheU.S.FoodSupplyChainIntroductionOverviewofTraditional“Competitive”SupplyChainStructureTheSupplyChainofYesteryearOverviewofEmerging“Partnership”SupplyChainStructureTheSupplyChainofTodayReasonsforChange:ChannelBlurringChangingConsumerPreferencesRetailDifferentiationRetailConcentrationGrowingImportanceofFoodserviceTechnologicalCapabilitiesChangingStructureofProductionAgricultureTheSupplyChainofYesteryearSources:BrianSilbermann,PMA,March2005Dr.DonBowersox,MichiganStateUniversity“Competitive”StructureTraditionalsupermarketsdominatedretailmarketplaceManyshipperssoldtomanybuyersinwholesaleandretailmarkets;nolargebuyersdrovethemarketBuyerstendedtobemoretransactionandprice-oriented;notopentocooperativepartnershipswithsuppliersDailysalestransactionsweretypical“Newtechnology”equaledafaxmachineandPLUstickers“Anticipatory”supplychainsysteminplacewheresuppliersForecastproductsalesBuythecomponentsandmanufacturetheproductsWarehousetheproductsSelltheproductsproducedDelivertheproductstotheconsumerTheSupplyChainofToday“Partnership”StructureBuyersseekingmorelong-termrelationshipswithsupplierstoensuresteadierpricing,supplyavailability,greaterqualitycontrolTraditional“cultural”dividebetweenprocurementandmarketing/merchandisingdepartmentsdisappearingaslong-termsupplyrelationshipstakeprecedenceovershort-termpricenegotiationsTechnologicalcapabilitiesallowsuperiorexchangeofdatabetweenfoodsuppliersandbuyers,whichpermitsmoreprecisemonitoringandcalculationsofsalestransactionsanddemandrequirementsTheSupplyChainofToday“Real-time”informationexchangepermitsmovementtowardso-called“responsive”businessmodel,wherebysuppliersFirstselltheirproductsBuythecomponentsandmaterialsnecessarytoproducetheproductsManufacturetheproductsanddelivertocustomerUnderthefullyresponsivebusinessmodel,thereisnoinventory.Thesystemworkssoquicklythatretailerscansellproductstoconsumersthattheretailerhasnotevenhadtopayforyet.Forfoodproducts,growingverticalintegrationofU.S.productionagriculture—includingcommoditiessuchasproduce—increaseopportunitiesforstrategicalliancesacrossthesupplychainOccurringagainstbackdropofgrowingdiversityofretailvenueswherefoodproductsaremarketedtoconsumers,includingawayfromhomeReasonsforChangeChannelBlurringReasonsforChangeChannelBlurringConsumersarerejectingtraditionalsupermarketsinfavorofalternativefoodretailoutlets:Traditionalgrocerychannelhasexperienceddeclineseveryyearsince1995In2004,theaverageU.S.householdmade69tripstotraditionalsupermarketsorgrocerystores,comparedto92tripsin19952004markedthefirstyearthattraditionalsupermarketsorgrocerystoresexperiencedlessthan100%householdpenetrationTraditionalgrocerystoresrepresented52%ofthenation’sgroceryandconsumablesalesin2004,downfrom81%in1994Shareisforecasttoslipto46%by2009ReasonsforChangeChannelBlurringSupercenters,dollarstoresbiggainersinpastfewyears:Supercentershavegainedthemostintermsofnumberofaverageannualshoppingtrips(27persurveyedhouseholdin2004,comparedto15in1999)17%ofsurveyedcustomersnowreportthatsupercentersaretheirprimaryfoodshoppingvenueDollarstoreshavegainedthemostintermsofhouseholdpenetration67%ofsurveyedhouseholdsvisitedadollarstorein2004,comparedto52%in1999Nontraditionalfoodsellers,includingsupercenters,dollarstores,andwholesaleclubs,represented32%ofgroceryandconsumablesalesin2004,upfrom9%in1994–expectedtoriseto39%by2009Sources:ProgressiveGrocer,April2004FMI,May2004ReasonsforChangeChannelBlurringDirect-to-consumermarketingoutletsgainingtractionValueofdirect-to-consumersalesgrew37%between1997and20022%ofsurveyedfoodshoppersnowindicatethatfarmersmarketsaretheirprimaryfoodshoppingvenueFarmersmarketsreportedtohavenearlya4%marketshareoftheorganicfoodmarketSources:OrganicTradeAssociation2004ManufacturersSurvey2002CensusofAgricultureReasonsforChangeChangingConsumerPreferencesTheaverageshoppershopsat2.2storeseachweektoobtainalltheiritems,andthefactthattheyarewillingtogotodifferentstorestopurchasevariousitemssuggeststhatsupermarketsaremissinganopportunitytocapturemoreconsumerdollarsbydeliveringandcommunicatingagreaterselectionandvaluetotheirshoppers.─PhilLempert,SupermarketGuru(2002)ReasonsforChangeChangingConsumerPreferencesGrowingpopularityofspecialtyandvalue-addedfoodsOrganicfoodsU.S.salesoforganicfoodgrewfrom$3.5billionin1997toreachmorethan$10billionby2003$4.3billionor42%oftotalorganicsalesin2003consistedofproduceitemsAveragegrowthrateof18%projectedbetween2004-2008,comparedwithgrowthof2%to3%fortheconventionalfoodindustrySource:OrganicTradeAssociationReasonsforChangeChangingConsumerPreferencesGrowingpopularityofspecialtyandvalue-addedfoods(continued)Locally-grownfoodsLargeincreasesindemandforlocalfoodsacrossallrestaurantcategories.73%ofAmericanssayitisimportanttoknowwhetherfoodisgrownorproducedlocallyorregionallyMorethan75%ofconsumerssurveyedin2003insevenMidwesternstatesandthemetropolitanBostonandSeattleareaschose“grownlocallybyfamilyfarmers”astheir#1choiceforproduceorproductsSources:RoperPublicAffairs,IowaStateUniversityTheNationalRestaurantAssociationReasonsforChangeChangingConsumerPreferencesSource:TrendsinU.S.ProduceMarketing,Dr.RobertaCook,Univ.ofCADavis,April2005,basedonACNielsenfiguresGrowingpopularityofspecialtyandvalue-addedfoods(continued)Convenience-orientedfoodsSalesoffreshcutsaladsatsupermarketsincreasedfrom$197millionin1993to$2.5billionin2003ReasonsforChangeChangingConsumerPreferencesGrowingpopularityofspecialtyandvalue-addedfoods(continued)Ready-to-eat/takeoutfoodsManyconsumers,whennoteatingout,arebringingpreparedmealshome.Almostone-third(31%)saythat,atleastonceaweek,theyeatmealsathomethatwerenotpreparedathomeCloseto10%saytheybringhometakeoutfoodthreeormoretimeseachweekMoretake-outfoodbeingpurchasedatsupermarkets27%oftakeoutfoodpurchasedatsupermarketsin2004,comparedto19%in2003Source:FMI2004TrendsreportReasonsforChangeRetailDifferentiationConsumersarebecomingmorepolarizedandfragmentedasagroup.Thedifferencesinproductandshoppingpreferencesbetweenyoungandold,richandpoor,marriedandsingle,Caucasianandethnic,urbanandexurban,arebecominggreater.Theseconsumersarelookingforproductsandservicesthatareauthenticanduniquetotheircommunities.─DeloitteResearch(quotedinProgressiveGrocer,Feb.15,2005)ReasonsforChangeRetailDifferentiationInresponsetochangingconsumerdemands,retailersarebecomingmorefocusedonspecificmarketsegmentsNewstoreconstructionin2003wasprimarilydrivenbytarget-marketfocusedstores.Overall,12.6%ofcompaniesthatrespondedtoFMI’sstoredevelopmentsurveyoperatedatleastonetarget-marketfocusedstore.Ofthese:44.4%offeredgourmetformatsandnearlyone-thirdofferedHispanic-orientedornatural/organicformatsThemajorityoperatedsmallerchainsof11to100stores36.4%ofthetarget-marketfocusedstoresscheduledtoopeninthenextyearwereHispanic-orientedformats,45.5%werenatural/organicoutlets,and18.2%weregourmetoutletsReasonsforChangeRetailDifferentiationDemandforvarietydrivingexpansionofretailproducedepartmentsStronggrowthinretailproducestockkeepingunits(SKUs)providescompetitiveadvantagetosuppliers—suchasspecialtywholesalers—whocandeliverbroadvarietyofproduceitemstoretailbuyersSource:FreshTrack2001,CornellUniversityReasonsforChangeRetailConcentrationReasonsforChangeRetailConcentrationDwindlingsupermarketloyaltyleadstosluggishprofitsTotalsalesatU.S.supermarketsin2004rose4.2%above2003.WhendeflatedbytheFMI’ssupermarketpriceindex,actualgrowthwasjust0.89%─belowtheaverage1%increaseinpopulationIn2003,althoughsalesgrowthatthetoptensupermarketchainsgrew2.7%,overallfoodsalesgrowthactuallyincreased5.8%duringthesametimeperiod,demonstratingtherelativeweaknessofthetraditionalsupermarketsector.Source:U.S.CensusBureauReasonsforChangeRetailConcentrationConsolidationofretailsupermarketscontinuestointensifyGrocerySalesMarketShareTopU.S.FoodRetailers1992-2004Sources:USDA/ERS,1992-2003,FMI2004FMI(2004salesstatistics)Top20foodretailersinU.S.responsiblefor68%ofretailgrocerysales,95%ofsupermarketsalesTop4foodretailersinU.S.responsiblefornearly39%ofgrocerysales,54%ofsupermarketsalesReasonsforChangeRetailConcentrationHighlycompetitiveleadingtoaggressivecostsavingandheightenedqualitycontrolthroughoutthesupplychainMorethan80%ofsurveyedretailersrevealedthattheydemandedmoreservicesfromtheirsuppliersthantheydidin199374%ofsurveyedproduceshippersreportedincreaseddemandfromtheirretailbuyers.Toppingthelistwere:TheprovisionofprivatelabelproductsCategorymanagementservicesElectronicdatainterchangecapabilityGreateremphasisbeingplacedonpreciseinventorymanagementthroughcollaborativerelationships,dataexchangewithsuppliersSources:WillardBishopConsulting,June2000NationalFoodandAgriculturalPolicyProjectPolicy(NFAPP)BriefingPaper,ArizonaStateUniversity,March2001ReasonsforChangeGrowingImportanceofFoodserviceReasonsforChangeGrowingImportanceofFoodserviceAway-from-homefoodconsumptioncontinuestoincreaseIn2003,about$949billionworthoffoodwassuppliedbythefoodmarketingsystem.Foodservicefacilitiessuppliedabout$445billionofthistotalforon-premiseorimmediateconsumption,the2ndhighestlevelinrecenthistory.70%ofshopperseattheireveningmealoutatleastonceaweekProduceconsumptionhasbeensignificantlyboostedbytheaway-from-homemarketPercapitaconsumptionofvegetablesincreasedbyabout25%between1980-82and2000-02.Morethan30%offreshonions,freshmarkettomatoes,mushrooms,sweetpeppersandgarlicareusedinfoodserviceSource:USDAEconomicResearchService;FMI,June2004ReasonsforChangeGrowingImportanceofFoodserviceAway-from-homefoodconsumptioncontinuestoincrease(continued)ReasonsforChangeGrowingImportanceofFoodserviceImplicationsofaway-from-homeconsumptiontrendsRapidgrowthinimportanceoffoodservicesegmenttowholesaleindustry1987:8%ofwholesaleproducesalesgeneratedbyfoodservicecustomers(comparedto38%forretail)1997:21%ofwholesaleproducesalesgeneratedbyfoodservicecustomers(comparedto35%forretail)2002:Surveyedspecialtyfoodandproducedistributorsreportthatfoodservicecustomersaccountfor45%ofsales2005:Foodserviceshareofspecialtydistributorsalesprojectedtoriseto48%Sources:1987and1997datafromUSDA/ERS,2002and2005datafromCornellUniversityCensusofWholesaleTradeFreshTrack2003(Cornell,PMA)ReasonsforChangeGrowingImportanceofFoodserviceDemandsforservicebyfoodserviceoperatorstemperdesirefordirectprocurementfromgrowersTwo-thirdsoffoodserviceoperatorssurveyedbyCornellUniversityin2003—andmorethanthree-quartersofcasualdiningoperators—expecttoincrease“theirdirectcontactwithgrower/shippers”toplanproductionofspecificproduceitems/varietiesDespitesignsofinterestinestablishingmoredirectgrowercontact,foodserviceoperatorsexpressequalorgreaterpreferencetoreceivingthefollowingservicesfromdistributorsratherthangrower/shippers:PricequotesMarketreportsAvailabilityof“opportunisticbuys”PackagecustomizationCost-basedanalysisFoodsafetyassuranceQualityinspectionsSources:CornellUniversity,FreshTrack2003ReasonsforChangeGrowingImportanceofFoodserviceSpecialtyproducedistributorshavethecompetitiveedgeinmeetingfoodservicedemandsforvariety,quality,flexibilityLargemajorityofsurveyedfoodserviceoperatorsexpecttoincreasenumberoffresh,pre-cut,and“healthy”produceitemstheypurchase,includingitemsfor“centeroftheplate”entreesSpecialtydistributorstypicallyhandlemoreproduceSKUsthanbroadlinedistributors(whosupplyfoodandnon-fooditems)—377SKUs,onaverage,comparedto310forbroadlinedistributors.Specialtydistributorsplacemoreemphasisonhandling“unique”producevarieties,“pre-ripened”fruits,andtoalesserdegree,organicproductsWhenselectingasupplierofpre-cutproduce,foodserviceoperatorsindicatedthat“frequent”and“flexible”deliveryschedulesmatteredmost—givingadistinctadvantagetofirmsthatcanprovidethesetailoredservicesSources:CornellUniversity,FreshTrack2003ReasonsforChangeTechnologicalCapabilitiesReasonsforChangeTechnologicalCapabilitiesNewtechnologies,suchastheGlobalDataSynchronizationNetwork(GDSN),allowelectroniccommunicationof“real-time”databetweenfirms,facilitatingcategorymanagementandefficientsupplyreplenishmentForproducttracking,RadioFrequencyIdentification(RFID)tagscanprovidemoredetailed,accurate,andfrequentdatamessagesthanbarcodesReasonsforChangeTechnologicalCapabilitiesCurrenttechnologicalprioritiesWhensupermarketbuyerswereaskedwhichareaswillyourcompanytestorlaunchaprogramin2005,theyresponded:DataSynchronization,28%in2005,comparedto18%in2004RFID,21%in2005,comparedto3%in2004Nearlyhalfoffoodserviceoperatorssurveyedin2003alreadyrankedelectronicdatainterchangecapabilitywithsuppliersasanimportantprioritySource:11thAnnualStateoftheIndustry/SupermarketTechnologyReport,SupermarketNews,1/31/05,andFreshTrack2003,CornellUniversityReasonsforChangeChangingStructureofProductionAgricultureReasonsforChangeChangingStructureofProductionAgricultureGrowthinverticalintegrationThegrowingopennesstowardslonger-termsupplycontractsinU.S.productionagriculturehascreatedgreateropportunitiesforlonger-termstrategicpartnershipsbetweenproducesuppliersandretailersAccordingtothe2002CensusofAgriculture,approximately4%ofvegetable,melon,andpotatogrowersproducedcropsunderproductioncontractsatroughly2,100farmsRetailproducebuyersbecomingmorediscriminatingaboutchoiceofsuppliersRetailproducebuyersinterviewedin1999-2000byUSDAreportedthatthetopfoursuppliersprovidedfrom85%to97%oftheirtotalpurchasesofbaggedsalads,tomatoes,oranges,grapefruit,lettuceandgrapesConcludingObservationsChannelsbywhichfoodproductsmovefromfarmormanufacturertoconsumersareblurringorbecomingmorediverseRoleoftraditionalretailsupermarketsisbeingovertakenbyothermarketingvenues–othertypesofstoresandcontinuinggrowthinaway-from-homeconsumptionGrowingconsumerpreferencefor--HighlydifferentiatedfoodsRetailfoodservice(awayfromhome)purchasesDespite–orperhapsbecauseof–theemerging“partnership”supplychainforfoodproductsintheUnitedStates,animportantroleremainsforwholesalersinthesourcingofproductsforretailsale.演讲完毕，谢谢观看！