21世纪技术发展趋势

Part2:Innovationconvergenceunlocksnewparadigmskpmg.com/techinnovationThechanginglandscapeofdisruptivetechnologies1Foreword2Technologiesunlockingmassivemarketopportunity3Emergingtechtrends12Innovationandcommercializationbarriers16Industrydisruption18Technologydisruptionandthe21stcenturyenterprise20Everythingasaservice22Thechangingnatureandvalueofassets24Workforceofthefuture26Customerengagement28GlobaltechindustryCEOinsights30ConclusionContents©2017KPMGInternationalCooperative(“KPMGInternational”),aSwissentity.MemberfirmsoftheKPMGnetworkofindependentfirmsareaffiliatedwithKPMGInternational.KPMGInternationalprovidesnoclientservices.NomemberfirmhasanyauthoritytoobligateorbindKPMGInternationaloranyothermemberfirmvis-à-visthirdparties,nordoesKPMGInternationalhaveanysuchauthoritytoobligateorbindanymemberfirm.Allrightsreserved.ForewordPart1|Globaltechnologyinnovationhubsshowcasestheriseofnewecosystemsofstart-ups,incubatorsandventurecapitalalongsidegovernmentincentivestocreateleadinginnovationhubs.Inthissection,weunfoldthecitiesandcountriesthataremakingsignificantstridesininnovationdevelopmentandprovide15countryperspectives.Withstakessohightocompeteinaglobaltechnologyindustryecosystem,wealsolookatgloballeadershipviewsoninnovationmanagement.Part2|Innovationconvergenceunlocksnewparadigms.Inthispartweexaminetheemergingtechnologieswiththemostpotentialtodisruptindustriesandtransformbusinessmodels.Weshowcasethebarriersfacedbytechindustryleaderstocommercializenewtechnologiesonaglobalandregionalscaleandassessthemonetizationopportunitiesofthesedisruptors.Thetechindustryleadersareonajourneytoredefinethe21stcenturyenterprise:theworkforceofthefuture,customerengagement,everythingasaserviceandthechangingnature,andvalueofassets.Weincludeinsightsfromourannualsurveyofmorethan800globaltechnologyindustryleadersincludingstart-upentrepreneursandFORTUNE500executives.WearealsohighlightingKPMG’sglobalCEOsurvey“DisruptandGrow.”Thesurveyshowcasesopinionsfromover1,200CEOsacross11keyindustries.Wehopeyoufindthispublicationinsightfulandwewelcomeyoursuggestionsforthenextedition.TimZanniGlobalandU.S.TechnologySectorLeaderChairofGlobalandU.S.TMTLineofBusiness,KPMGintheU.S.KPMGrecognizestheimportanceofinnovationtothetechnologyindustryandtheglobaleconomyasawhole.KPMG’spublicationseries,TheChangingLandscapeofDisruptiveTechnologies,nowinitsfifthyear,providesperspectivesabouttechnologyinnovationtrends,topbarrierstocommercializeinnovationandinsightsintotechnologyinnovationbestpractices.The2017publicationisbeingissuedintwoparts,featuringthefollowingtopics:Thechanginglandscapeofdisruptivetechnologies20171©2017KPMGInternationalCooperative(“KPMGInternational”),aSwissentity.MemberfirmsoftheKPMGnetworkofindependentfirmsareaffiliatedwithKPMGInternational.KPMGInternationalprovidesnoclientservices.NomemberfirmhasanyauthoritytoobligateorbindKPMGInternationaloranyothermemberfirmvis-à-visthirdparties,nordoesKPMGInternationalhaveanysuchauthoritytoobligateorbindanymemberfirm.Allrightsreserved.Technologiesunlockingmassivemarketopportunity2Thechanginglandscapeofdisruptivetechnologies2017©2017KPMGInternationalCooperative(“KPMGInternational”),aSwissentity.MemberfirmsoftheKPMGnetworkofindependentfirmsareaffiliatedwithKPMGInternational.KPMGInternationalprovidesnoclientservices.NomemberfirmhasanyauthoritytoobligateorbindKPMGInternationaloranyothermemberfirmvis-à-visthirdparties,nordoesKPMGInternationalhaveanysuchauthoritytoobligateorbindanymemberfirm.Allrightsreserved.Thesetechnologiesaretransformingbusinessmodels,ineveryindustryandunlockingmassivemarketopportunities.Today’sprofitpoolsandcompetitiveadvantageswillbeshort-livedifindustryleadersdon’tquicklyaddressdisruptivetechnologyopportunities.Thetechindustryispoisedtocontinuetobeaglobalengineofgrowthandprofitability.KPMG’sglobaltechnologyindustryinnovationsurveycapturedtheopinionof841globaltechindustryleadersincludingstart-upentrepreneursandFORTUNE500executives.“TheconvergenceofemergingtechnologiesincludingtheInternetofThings(IoT),robotics,andartificialintelligence(AI)iscreatingnewmarketvalueanddisplacingexistingproductsandservices.Thesetechnologiesaredrivingprofoundchangesimpactingindustriesandbusinessmodelsaswellaslife,society,andtheenvironment.”—TimZanni,GlobalandU.S.TechnologySectorLeader;ChairofGlobalandU.S.TMTLineofBusiness,KPMGintheU.S.EmergingtechtrendsThetechnologyindustrycontinuestodriveunprecedentedglobalcross-industrydisruptionandthepaceisexpectedtoaccelerate.Considerthefollowingtrends:IndiaChinaU.S.20%11%10%InternetofThingsRoboticsAI/Cognitive26%25%11%Whatarethetoptechnologiesthatwilldrivebusinesstransformationoverthenextthreeyears?Partiallist.Percentagesdonotsumto100%.Source:KPMGTechnologyInnovationSurvey,November2016TheInternetofThingsismassiveintermsofdataandcontinuestogrowexponentially.Theseconnecteddevicesarebecomingintelligentthings.Thenextwaveofartificialintelligence(AI)isdesignedtosimulatehowahumanbrainlearns,reasons,understands,andmakesadecisionthatresultsinanaction.Roboticsisenablingenhanceddexterity,intelligenceandsensors.Robotsarechangingthelimitationsofwhathumanscandoincludingpeoplewithimpairedmobility.Computationalpowergrowth,inthenextfiveyears,iscreatingunprecedentedimprovementsindataprocessingpower.Thechanginglandscapeofdisruptivetechnologies20173©2017KPMGInternationalCooperative(“KPMGInternational”),aSwissentity.MemberfirmsoftheKPMGnetworkofindependentfirmsareaffiliatedwithKPMGInternational.KPMGInternationalprovidesnoclientservices.NomemberfirmhasanyauthoritytoobligateorbindKPMGInternationaloranyothermemberfirmvis-à-visthirdparties,nordoesKPMGInternationalhaveanysuchauthoritytoobligateorbindanymemberfirm.Allrightsreserved.Emergingtechtrends(continued)InKPMG’stechinnovationsurvey,IoThadhighmarksinAsia,whereIndia,Korea,ChinaandJapanhadpercentageratingsof30,25,19and18,respectively.InIndia,mobileandIoTconnectivityareenablingavarietyofnewusecasesspecifictothecountrysuchaspaymentsfortheunbankedanddigitalhealthforpeopleinremotelocations.Thereareabroadrangeofnewcapabilitiesthatwillhaveabigimpact,giventhesizeofthepopulationandgrowingnumberofmillennialsinIndia.IoTisunleashinggreatinnovationopportunitiestodrivenewbusinessmodelsinanumberofindustriesincludinghealthcare,bankingandagriculture.IoTalsohadhighmarksinGermany(23percent),theUnitedKingdom(19percent),andIsrael(18percent).“ExcitingIoTinnovationsareemergingatanacceleratedrate.Asweevolveasanetworkedsociety,IoTwilltransformthewayweinteractwithtechnology.Fromanenterpriseperspectivethisevolutionwillrequireanewframeworktomanagetheopportunitiesandrisk.”—PeterMercieca,ManagementConsultingLeader,TechnologySector,KPMGintheU.S.IoTthe#1gamechangerThistopstatusforIoTwasreinforcedasnetworksoflow-costsensorsareconvertingphysicalgoodsintovirtualgoods.Thesesensorsarebecomingintelligentthingswithmini-computingcapabilitiesthatwillenablemoreinnovationandmonetizationopportunities.AI/CognitiveRoboticsInternetofThings15%15%12%10%10%11%10%10%10%11%11%19%21%19%30%20%11%10%InternetofThingsRoboticsAI/CognitiveEMEAASPACIndiaChinaU.S.GlobalPartiallist.Percentagesdonotsumto100%.Source:KPMGTechnologyInnovationSurvey,November2016IoTisthetoptechnologyexpectedtodrivebusinesstransformationoverthenextthreeyears“AnewupdatetotheInternationalDataCorporation(IDC)WorldwideSemiannualInternetofThingsSpendingGuideforecastsworldwidespendingontheInternetofThings(IoT)togrow16.7%yearoveryearin2017,reachingjustover$800billion.By2021,globalIoTspendingisexpectedtototalnearly$1.4trillionasorganizationscontinuetoinvestinthehardware,software,services,andconnectivitythatenabletheIoT.”–IDC,June2017ConnectedthingsworldwideSource:GartnerFebruary2017InternetofThingsspending20.4billionby2020by2021$1.4trillionIDCJune2017IoTtechnologiesareunlockingamassivemarketopportunitySource:GartnerFebruary2017IDCJune20174Thechanginglandscapeofdisruptivetechnologies2017©2017KPMGInternationalCooperative(“KPMGInternational”),aSwissentity.MemberfirmsoftheKPMGnetworkofindependentfirmsareaffiliatedwithKPMGInternational.KPMGInternationalprovidesnoclientservices.NomemberfirmhasanyauthoritytoobligateorbindKPMGInternationaloranyothermemberfirmvis-à-visthirdparties,nordoesKPMGInternationalhaveanysuchauthoritytoobligateorbindanymemberfirm.Allrightsreserved.Emergingtechtrends(continued)InanIoTworld,wherenewfeaturesandfunctionalitycanbedeliveredtothecustomeroverthenetwork,industrieswillcontinuetobetransformed.WhichindustryhasthegreatestmonetizationpotentialasaresultoftheadoptionofIoTtechnologiesinthenextthreeyears?14%7%8%10%10%12%12%6%6%6%10%8%8%8%7%11%13%10%12%8%Automotive/TransportationHealthcare/LifesciencesConsumermarkets/RetailTechnology11%9%9%9%EMEAASPACIndiaChinaU.S.GlobalPartiallist.Percentagesdonotsumto100%.Source:KPMGTechnologyInnovationSurvey,November2016Partiallist.Percentagesdonotsumto100%.Source:KPMGTechnologyInnovationSurvey,November20161.Improvedbusinessefficiencies/Higherproductivity25%2.Fasterinnovationcycles19%3.Costreductions13%4.Increasedprofitability11%5.Acceleratedtimetomarket9%BusinessbenefitsfromIoTadoptionTechindustryleaderswhoselectedIoTasthetoptechnologythatwillhavethegreatestimpactindrivingbusinesstransformation,identifiedthetopbenefitforbusinessesthatadoptIoT.CompaniesthatcandeliverclearusecasebenefitsareleadingthewayontheimpactIoThasonimprovingefficienciesanddevelopingnewproductsandservicemodels.Inthesurvey,techindustryleaderscontinuetobebullishonIoTmonetizationopportunitiesinthetechsector.Softwareistouchingeverything,fromhealthcaretoagriculture.AsIoTconnecteddevicesbecomeintelligentthings,valuecreationwillcontinuetoshifttothetechsector.Inconsumermarkets,IoTisenablingubiquitousunderstandingofcustomerbehavior;inhealthcaremanyadvancesindigitalheatharedrivenbyIoTusecases;andintransportationIoTconnectivityistransformingtheindustrywithnewproductsandservicessuchas“mobilityasaservice.”Thechanginglandscapeofdisruptivetechnologies20175©2017KPMGInternationalCooperative(“KPMGInternational”),aSwissentity.MemberfirmsoftheKPMGnetworkofindependentfirmsareaffiliatedwithKPMGInternational.KPMGInternationalprovidesnoclientservices.NomemberfirmhasanyauthoritytoobligateorbindKPMGInternationaloranyothermemberfirmvis-à-visthirdparties,nordoesKPMGInternationalhaveanysuchauthoritytoobligateorbindanymemberfirm.Allrightsreserved.OpensourceroboticsandnewinnovationssuchasAI-empoweredroboticsarefactorsinthisranking.Untilnow,industrialrobotshavemadeupmorethan50%ofoverallroboticsmarketrevenue,however2016marksoneofthecriticalturningpointsofthisshiftintheroboticsmarket,asTracticaestimatesthatindustrialrobotswilldropto41%oftotalroboticsrevenue,withtheremaining59%comingfromnon-industrialrobots.Thenon-industrialsectorlargelyconsistsofconsumerrobots,enterpriserobots,militaryrobots,andUAVs.”–ResearchandMarkets,March2017“Roboticshasreachedatippingpointwherethedemandfromthenon-industrialsegments(includingconsumerrobotsandUAVs)nowgeneratethemajorityofrevenues.Asscalegrowsfurther,andfunctionalitycontinuestoimprove,aglobalmass-marketforroboticsproductsandservicesisemergingthatwillimpactthelivesofmillionsinthedecadeahead.”—PerEdin,StrategyPracticesLeader,Technology,Media&Telecommunications,KPMGintheU.S.$226Billionby2021RoboticsboompredictionsSource:ResearchandMarkets,March2017Emergingtechtrends(continued)Roboticsplacedsecond;robotsarechangingthelimitationsofwhathumanscandoAI/CognitiveRoboticsInternetofThings15%15%12%10%10%11%10%10%10%11%11%19%21%19%30%20%11%10%InternetofThingsRoboticsAI/CognitiveEMEAASPACIndiaChinaU.S.GlobalEMEAASPACIndiaChinaU.S.GlobalPartiallist.Percentagesdonotsumto100%.Source:KPMGTechnologyInnovationSurvey,November2016RobticswasthenexttechnologyexpectedtodrivebusinessoverthenextthreeyearsInKPMG’stechinnovationsurveythispositiveoutlookforroboticsinenterprisemarketswasledbytheUnitedStatesandJapantiedat15percenteach;GermanyandIsraelat13percenteach;andChinaat12percent.Acontributorhasbeentheaggressivemove,inthesecountries,intoinnovationandfactoryautomation.InadditiontoagrowingindustrialroboticsmarketintheUnitedStates,companiesintheserviceindustrywanttoautomatetasksthatcanbedonebyrobotssoemployeescanspendmoretimeonimprovingthecustomerexperience.Robotsarealreadymakingroomservicedeliveriesinhotelsandhighrisesandbeginningtodeliverpackagestohomes.6Thechanginglandscapeofdisruptivetechnologies2017©2017KPMGInternationalCooperative(“KPMGInternational”),aSwissentity.MemberfirmsoftheKPMGnetworkofindependentfirmsareaffiliatedwithKPMGInternational.KPMGInternationalprovidesnoclientservices.NomemberfirmhasanyauthoritytoobligateorbindKPMGInternationaloranyothermemberfirmvis-à-visthirdparties,nordoesKPMGInternationalhaveanysuchauthoritytoobligateorbindanymemberfirm.Allrightsreserved.SaviokewaslaunchedinOctober2013.TheRelayrobotsaretheirfirstusecaseinmakingdeliveriestohotelguestrooms.SaviokeandmanytechnologycompaniescommercializingrobotsareusingRaaS(RobotasaService).SaaShastakenoffbecauseitbasicallyputstheupgradesandmaintenanceburdenintherightplace.ThesamethingwithRaaS.Fromthecustomer’spointofview,theyknowexactlywhattheserviceisgoingtocostandtheyhaveinformationtodoanROIanalysis.TheyaregettingthevalueforareliableservicewithoutaddingworktotheITstaff.Saviokepioneeredthismodelin2015andthecompanypredictsRaaSwillbeoneofthekeywaysthatroboticsisofferedtotheserviceindustryandothersectors.Themodelofbuyinghardwareandhavingtoworryaboutmaintenanceovertimemaynotbetherightapproachformanybusinesses.Industrialrobotshadbeencommoninindustrialmanufacturing,suchasautoplants,doingjobslikeheavyliftingandwelding.Inthelastfiveyearsrobotsbecamemorecollaborative,designedtoworkintheproximitytopeople,tohelpassembleproductsandincreaseefficiencieswiththeabilitytosenseifpartsareassembledcorrectly.TheconvergenceofIoT,roboticsandAIisunlockingnewbusinessparadigmsandfasterinnovationcycles.BusinessbenefitsfromroboticsadoptionTechindustryleaderswhoselectedroboticsasthetoptechnologythatwillhavethegreatestimpactindrivingbusinesstransformation,identifiedthetopbenefitsforbusinessesthatadoptrobotics.Emergingtechtrends(continued)1.Improvedbusinessefficiencies/Higherproductivity36%2.Fasterinnovationcycles14%3.Increasedmarketshare14%4.Costreductions11%5.Increasedprofitability9%Partiallist.Percentagesdonotsumto100%.Source:KPMGTechnologyInnovationSurvey,November2016Thechanginglandscapeofdisruptivetechnologies20177©2017KPMGInternationalCooperative(“KPMGInternational”),aSwissentity.MemberfirmsoftheKPMGnetworkofindependentfirmsareaffiliatedwithKPMGInternational.KPMGInternationalprovidesnoclientservices.NomemberfirmhasanyauthoritytoobligateorbindKPMGInternationaloranyothermemberfirmvis-à-visthirdparties,nordoesKPMGInternationalhaveanysuchauthoritytoobligateorbindanymemberfirm.Allrightsreserved.“Weareataninflectionpointinthewayhumansrelatetotechnology.ThiswillbeasimpactfultolaborasmechanicalenablementwastoworkersintheIndustrialRevolution.WemayseehistoryrecordthisexcitingwindowofchangeastheCognitiveRevolution.”—SteveHill,GlobalHead,Innovation&Investments,KPMGintheU.S.“InternationalDataCorporation(IDC)forecastsworldwiderevenuesforcognitiveandartificialintelligence(AI)systemswillreach$12.5billionin2017,anincreaseof59.3%over2016.GlobalspendingoncognitiveandAIsolutionswillcontinuetoseesignificantcorporateinvestmentoverthenextseveralyears,achievingacompoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)of54.4%through2020whenrevenueswillbemorethan$46billion”–IDC,April2017AIisembeddedinplatforms,chips,software,intelligentproductsanddevices,andisbecomingaleadingchangeagentinbusinessmodels.TheprogressionofAIusecasesinspecificindustrieswilldriveprofoundchangesinthenextthreeyears.Asourideaofintelligencechangesandisrefined,thedefinitionofAIwillevolve.Ascognitivetechnologiesbecomemoresophisticated,newknowledgewillbecreatedatanexplosiverate,supplementingdecision-makingbyleveragingdeepdatadomains.Fordecades,smarttechnologiesincludingAI,roboticprocessautomationandintelligentautomationwerelimitedtoresearchandusebygovernments,academia,toptechcompaniesandmanufacturingfloors.Thencomputingpowercaughtup.Decreasingcostsandtheriseintechnologycapabilitieshaveopeneddoorstosmarttechnologiesforalltypesoforganizationstobenefit—whetherstart-upsorestablished.Emergingtechtrends(continued)AIandthecognitiverevolutionrankedthirdMostindustrieswillbetransformedbythegrowthofcognitivesystemsthatcanpredict,infer,thinkandlearnbyexperiencemuchlikehumansdo.InthelasttenyearssignificantincreaseindataandcomputationalpowerhavespurredAIinnovation.Inlookingatenterprisemarkets,techindustryleadersidentifiedAIasakeydisruptor.ToprankingswereledbytheSingapore(15percent),SouthAfrica(14percent),AustraliaandIsrael(13percenteach),Japan(12percent),IndiaandtheUnitedKingdom(11percenteach),andtheUnitedStates,KoreaandChina(10percenteach).AI/CognitiveRoboticsInternetofThings15%15%12%10%10%11%10%10%10%11%11%19%21%19%30%20%11%10%InternetofThingsRoboticsAI/CognitiveEMEAASPACIndiaChinaU.S.GlobalEMEAASPACIndiaChinaU.S.GlobalPartiallist.Percentagesdonotsumto100%.Source:KPMGTechnologyInnovationSurvey,November2016AIwasthethirdtechnologyexpectedtodrivebusinessoverthenextthreeyears$46Billionby2021ThecognitiveeraishereSource:IDC,April20178Thechanginglandscapeofdisruptivetechnologies2017©2017KPMGInternationalCooperative(“KPMGInternational”),aSwissentity.MemberfirmsoftheKPMGnetworkofindependentfirmsareaffiliatedwithKPMGInternational.KPMGInternationalprovidesnoclientservices.NomemberfirmhasanyauthoritytoobligateorbindKPMGInternationaloranyothermemberfirmvis-à-visthirdparties,nordoesKPMGInternationalhaveanysuchauthoritytoobligateorbindanymemberfirm.Allrightsreserved.ThepowerofartificialintelligenceadoptionandmonetizationopportunitiesisglobalasindicatedinKPMG’stechindustryinnovationsurvey.Buildingonfast-evolvingAItechnologieslikenaturallanguageprocessing,machinelearning,intelligentsoftwareandintelligentthings,techcompaniesareenablingtheredistributionoflaborandnewvaluecreation.Welcometothecognitivefuture.WhichindustryhasthegreatestmonetizationpotentialasaresultoftheadoptionofAI/Cognitivetechnologiesinthenextthreeyears?Partiallist.Percentagesdonotsumto100%.Source:KPMGTechnologyInnovationSurvey,November2016EMEAASPACIndiaChinaU.S.13%10%6%10%9%13%12%4%5%9%5%11%8%8%8%14%12%9%13%10%TelecomHealthcare/LifesciencesTechnologyFinancialservices11%11%10%9%GlobalEMEAASPACIndiaChinaU.S.GlobalEmergingtechtrends(continued)Thereisnotanindustryorbusinessthatcognitivetechnologieswillnotimpact.FromhelpinghealthcareprovidersimproveoutcomestoboostingcustomerexperiencesatTelcos.Infact,KPMGistransformingarangeofprofessionalservicesinAudit,Tax,andAdvisory,aswellasitsback-officewithadvancedcognitivetechnology.Whenhumansandsystemscollaborate,thepossibilitiesarealmostlimitless.BusinessbenefitsfromAI/CognitiveadoptionTechindustryleaderswhoselectedAI/Cognitiveasthetoptechnologythatwillhavethegreatestimpactindrivingbusinesstransformation,identifiedthetopbenefitsforbusinessesthatadoptAI/Cognitive.1.Improvedbusinessefficiencies/Higherproductivity28%2.Costreductions16%3.Increasedprofitability14%4.Fasterinnovationcycles10%5.Enhancedcustomeradoptionandloyalty9%6.Acceleratedtimetomarket9%Partiallist.Percentagesdonotsumto100%.Source:KPMGTechnologyInnovationSurvey,November2016Thechanginglandscapeofdisruptivetechnologies20179©2017KPMGInternationalCooperative(“KPMGInternational”),aSwissentity.MemberfirmsoftheKPMGnetworkofindependentfirmsareaffiliatedwithKPMGInternational.KPMGInternationalprovidesnoclientservices.NomemberfirmhasanyauthoritytoobligateorbindKPMGInternationaloranyothermemberfirmvis-à-visthirdparties,nordoesKPMGInternationalhaveanysuchauthoritytoobligateorbindanymemberfirm.Allrightsreserved.Emergingtechtrends(continued)DigitallaborDigitallaborisaconceptwhichenablesamorecollaborativeandnaturalrelationshi