2010年最值得期待的三大经济惊喜

2010年最值得期待的三大经济惊喜 经济预测师们普遍预计,2010年将是经济温和增长的一年,增幅约为3%,大大好于此前两年。但是,这还没有好到将失业率降到衰退前的水平。而失业率一直是经济面临的最大持续性威胁。 The consensus of economic forecasters expects 2010 to be a year of modest economic growth -- almost 3% -- much better than the previous two years. But that's not good enough to bring unemployment -- the greatest continuing threat to the economy -- close to pre-recession levels. 普遍预期在某些方面几乎总是有错误的;问题在于,经济会在哪些方面让我们出乎意料。这在很大程度上取决于雇主将会招聘多少人。以下是其它三大变数。The consensus is almost always wrong in some respect; the question is in which respects the economy will surprise us. A lot rides on how much hiring employers do. Here are three of the other big variables. 企业投资即将反弹。会吗? Business investment is primed to rebound. Will it? 经济衰退对消费者支出的打击引来了企业更严重的下滑。经济衰退期间的资本支出降幅超过了大萧条以来的任何时期。这意味着它有足够的空间恢复,如果企业能变得更加自信的话。 The pullback from consumers spooked by an economic downturn spurred an even sharper withdrawal by businesses. Capital spending tumbled during the recession more than it had at any time since the Great Depression. That means it has plenty of room to recover, if businesses can grow more confident. 企业的资产负债表总体看好。企业利润上升、资本成本下降、生产力表现强劲。Business balance sheets overall look promising. Corporate profits are up, the cost of capital is down and productivity is strong. 企业有充足的资金进行从机械到软件等各方面的投资。根据美联储的数据,反映企业外部融资额的指标公司资金缺口从今年第二季度的负1,530亿美元变为第三季度的负1,890亿美元。负的融资缺口意味着企业有内部资金支持它们的资本支出。 Firms have plenty of funds to finance investments, from machinery to software. The corporate financing gap, a reflection of how much firms must raise externally, hit a negative $189 billion in the third quarter from a negative $153 billion in the April-June period, according to Federal Reserve data. A negative financing gap means companies have the funds in house to support their capital expenditures. 经纪及金融技术公司Investment Technology Group Inc.的首席经济学家巴伯拉(Robert Barbera)说,与美国的家庭状况不同,企业领域处于极好的财务状况中。企业创造出的资金远远超过了它们的投资额。 'Unlike the household sector, the corporate sector is in excellent fiscal condition,' says Robert Barbera, chief economist at Investment Technology Group Inc., a brokerage and financial technology firm. Businesses are 'wildly generating more money than they're using to invest.' 如果消费者支出不出现温和改善,资本支出不可能实现持续反弹。但是,在过去1年大幅削减支出后,企业被压抑的需求可能对让经济获得复苏所需的速度至关重要。 A sustained rebound in capital expenditures can't occur without a modest improvement in consumer spending. But pent-up demand by businesses, after slashing expenditures sharply in the past year, could prove critical in giving the economy the velocity it needs to recover. 经济学家们都在指望资本支出的一些改善的迹象。在这方面,我们可能会在2010年看到出乎意料的上升。 Economists are on counting on some improvement in capital spending. On this front, we could see an upside surprise in 2010. 房地产市场会否康复? Will housing heal? 房地产行业的麻烦显然正在缓和。但房主、贷款机构和建筑商在恢复信心前还有很长的路要走。 Trouble throughout the housing sector clearly is abating. But homeowners, lenders and builders have a long way to go before regaining confidence. 房价的暴跌可能导致消费者减少消费,面临贷款损失的银行也会降低放贷额。虽然价格下降最严重的时期似乎已经过去,但预计全国的房价在2010年只会出现小幅上涨。 Sharp home-price declines can lead consumers to spend less and banks, hit by loan losses, to lend less. While the worst of the price drops appear to be over, home values nationwide are expected to show tiny gains -- if any -- throughout 2010. 最大的原因在于,房屋止赎的大幅增加还远远看不到尽头。据抵押贷款银行家协会说,到第三季度末,4.5%的贷款处于止赎程序中,高于上年同期的3%。此外,在所有贷款中有9.6%至少出现过一次逾期还款。除非失业率大幅下降,房地产市场将难以出现好转。 The biggest reason: the troubling spike in home foreclosures is nowhere near its end. At the end of the third quarter, 4.5% of loans were in the foreclosure process, up from 3% a year earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. On top of that, 9.6% of all loans had at least one past-due payment. Until the unemployment rate recovers substantially, improvement will be elusive. 所有这一切都意味着有更多的房屋进入市场,进而压低房价。衍生品经纪公司MF Global首席经济学家奥沙利文说,市场上仍有大量过剩房屋。由于供房没有那么难了,我们将会慢慢消化这些过量供应,不过不管怎样,房屋仍旧严重过剩。All of that means more homes coming on the market, pushing values lower. 'There still is a huge, huge excess of homes,' says Jim O'Sullivan, chief economist at MF Global. Due to better home affordability 'you're going to eat into that glut over time, but nonetheless there's still a huge excess.' 房屋销售最近出现好转,主要原因是美联储收购抵押贷款证券带来的较低的抵押贷款利率,以及对买房人的联邦减税 措施 《全国民用建筑工程设计技术措施》规划•建筑•景观全国民用建筑工程设计技术措施》规划•建筑•景观软件质量保证措施下载工地伤害及预防措施下载关于贯彻落实的具体措施 。这两项措施都将于明年年中之前到期。届时,房屋销售活动将会受到冲击。 Much of the recent improvement in sales is due to low mortgage rates, spurred by the Federal Reserve's purchase of mortgage securities, and a federal tax credit for home buyers. Both are set to expire by the middle of next year. When they do, sales activity will take a hit. 楼市的一个领域可能会显示出一些希望。经济低迷时期住宅投资大幅下滑,已经没有进一步下降的空间了。 One area of housing could show some hope. Residential investment fell so sharply during the economic downturn that it has little room to decline further. 11月份新屋销售较2005年7月的峰值低74%,未来很多年都不太可能会再回到那个水平。不过库存已经降到了1971年以来的最低水平,因此房屋建设很可能会上升,推动整体经济增长。 Sales of new homes in November stood 74% below the July 2005 peak and are unlikely to reach that level again for many years. But inventories have been whittled down to the lowest level since 1971, so construction is likely to rise and contribute to overall growth in the economy. 在经过了两年的动荡之后,预测人士的普遍看法是,2010年楼市将出现小幅好转。对房价来说,风险很显然是不断增多的止赎带来的下行压力。不过房屋建设从低迷的水平开始回升,很有希望成为2010年的一大惊喜。 After two years of turmoil, forecasters' consensus view is for minor improvement in housing in 2010. For home prices, the risk is clearly to the downside given mounting foreclosures. But home construction, starting from its depressed levels, has a good shot at being a positive surprise for 2010. 失去公共领域的支持,经济能承受得住吗? Will the economy withstand loss of public-sector support? 2009年的大部分时间,政府都把美国经济置于一个人造心脏泵上。如果生命支持系统按计 划于2010年停运,我们可以料想会发生一些挫折,遭受打击。 The government put the U.S. economy on an artificial heart pump for much of 2009. If the life support comes off as scheduled in 2010, we can expect a few bruising setbacks. 7,870亿美元的减税及支出刺激计划是帮助今年下半年刺激经济增长、提振信心的功臣。高盛(Goldman Sachs)经济学家们预计,2010年上半年,财政刺激计划将继续把年率化的增速提高两个百分点。到下半年,刺激计划的提振作用就会消失。 The $787 billion mix of tax cuts and spending deserves credit for helping to spur growth in the economy -- and improve confidence -- in the second half of this year. Goldman Sachs economists expect fiscal stimulus will continue to boost annualized growth by two percentage points in the first half of 2010. In the second half, the boost is gone. 劳动力市场之外,经济上存在的最大问号是消费者和企业将对政府支持的结束作出怎样的反应。在政府的救助之下,2009年有很多消费者买了降价房子和车子。由于政府用纳税人的资金进行了支持,企业也得到了建筑合同和利率更低的贷款。 Outside the labor market, the biggest question mark hanging over the economy is how consumers and businesses respond when the government support fades. Many consumers picked up lower-priced houses and cars in 2009 thanks to government aid. Businesses found construction contracts and cheaper loans thanks to taxpayer support. 在这样一个受到高失业率困扰的大选之年,国会和白宫在着手计划更多的项目来促进企业招工、支持地方政府、增加基础设施支出。 Congress and the White House, in an election year plagued by high unemployment, are planning more programs to boost hiring by businesses, support local governments and increase infrastructure spending. 不过,他们将面临这样一个风险:做的越多,赤字越大,进而造成其他问题。摩根大通经济学家迈克尔?洛里说,现在的问题是,对财政可持续性的担心确实在加剧,但放缓刺激也确实会带来代价。 But they'll face the risk that doing more will create other problems through a rising deficit. 'You are getting to the point now where the worries about fiscal sustainability really are intensifying,' J.P. Morgan Chase economist Michael Feroli says. 'Slowing down the drag does come with a cost.' 2010年的看点可能是,当政府的刺激计划终止时,经济会如何表现。普遍的看法是预计私营领域将接起“接力棒”,不过随着联邦救助的消失,经济将面临相当大的下行风险。 The story of 2010 could be how the economy fared when the government spigots turned off. The consensus expects the private sector to pick up the baton, but the downside risks to the economy as federal aid fades are substantial. 继续阅读