广东省人口增长与年龄结构预测与控制-广东海洋大学数学建模论文

广东省人口增长与年龄结构预测与控制-广东海洋大学数学建模 论文 政研论文下载论文大学下载论文大学下载关于长拳的论文浙大论文封面下载 2014广东海洋大学数学建模竞赛 承 诺 书 关于书的成语关于读书的排比句社区图书漂流公约怎么写关于读书的小报汉书pdf 我们仔细阅读了中国大学生数学建模竞赛的竞赛规则. 我们完全明白，在竞赛开始后参赛队员不能以任何方式(包括电话、电子邮件、网上咨询等)与队外的任何人(包括指导教师)研究、讨论与赛 题 快递公司问题件快递公司问题件货款处理关于圆的周长面积重点题型关于解方程组的题及答案关于南海问题 有关的问题。 我们知道，抄袭别人的成果是违反竞赛规则的, 如果引用别人的成果或其他公开的资料(包括网上查到的资料)，必须按照规定的参考文献的 表 关于同志近三年现实表现材料材料类招标技术评分表图表与交易pdf视力表打印pdf用图表说话 pdf 述方式在正文引用处和参考文献中明确列出。 我们郑重承诺，严格遵守竞赛规则，以保证竞赛的公正、公平性。如有违反竞赛规则的行为，我们将受到严肃处理。 我们授权广东海洋大学数学建模竞赛筹委会，可将我们的论文以任何形式进行公开展示(包括进行网上公示，在书籍、期刊和其他媒体进行正式或非正式发表等)。 我们参赛选择的题号是(从A/B中选择一项填写): B 关于是否参加全国大学生数学建模竞赛选拔，请在队员签名处选择填写: a . 不参加校内选拔; b. 参加选拔，并承诺获得参赛资格后，按通知准时参加强化训练和竞赛。 参赛队员 (打印并签名) :1. 杨文峰 2. 3. real, in each pen business lending Qian not for by pen query, led to mortgage failure of. (Vi) not in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Bank operation, failed to identify false documents, certificates, authorizations, warrants, etc. (VII) in the credit risk management system to provide false information, is not required by the guest rating credit management objective, impartial ratings of credit, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (H) the investigation report conclusions of false record, misleading statement or material omission, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (I) the orders, directives, orders, suggest that others not involved in the investigation business, issued by the investigators. (10) without the approval of authorities, after the first credit investigation, credit first and then record, counter-current process operations such as operation prior to approval. (11) article does not meet the risk management Department, Marketing Management Department to carry out supervision and inspection and due diligence evaluations or providing false information. (12) other violations result in credit business at substantial risk or significant potential risk behaviours. Sixth chapter supplementary articles article 28th of this approach by the Head Office of risk management Department is responsible for the interpretation and amendment. 29th spontaneous herein from the date of implementation. Qilu silver computer transmission of qilu Bank documents (2012), No. 289Qilu Bank personal credit on issuing the Notification Guide to business risk management branch, jurisdiction and the jurisdiction of business lines, Jinan branch, head office departments within its jurisdiction: in order to improve the quality of individual credit business, optimize the structure of assets, promotion of 日期: 2014 年 5 月 24 日 广东省人口增长与年龄结构预测与控制 摘要 通过借鉴广东省统计年鉴对广东省人口进行分析，可知广东省人口增长速度 GM(1，1)快、老龄化日益突出等问题。通过建立灰色系统模型并利用Matlab软件对其进行求解，然后对广东省人口做预测，2012年广东人口实际值8635.89万人，灰色预测值为8717.68万人，绝对误差为0.94%，结果较为接近，模型建立比较成功。结合广东省省情进行分析，对广东省未来人口增长和年龄结构控制提出几点建议。 关键词: 人口增长 灰色序列预测 Matlab软件 控制 一、 问题重述 在当代，人口的数量和结构已经成为影响经济社会发展的重要因素，我们不再能像过去那样忽视它。从20世纪70年代后期，为了控制人口的增长速度，我国做出了巨大的努力，例如全面推行计划生育政策，让只生一个孩子好，晚婚晚real, in each pen business lending Qian not for by pen query, led to mortgage failure of. (Vi) not in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Bank operation, failed to identify false documents, certificates, authorizations, warrants, etc. (VII) in the credit risk management system to provide false information, is not required by the guest rating credit management objective, impartial ratings of credit, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (H) the investigation report conclusions of false record, misleading statement or material omission, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (I) the orders, directives, orders, suggest that others not involved in the investigation business, issued by the investigators. (10) without the approval of authorities, after the first credit investigation, credit first and then record, counter-current process operations such as operation prior to approval. (11) article does not meet the risk management Department, Marketing Management Department to carry out supervision and inspection and due diligence evaluations or providing false information. (12) other violations result in credit business at substantial risk or significant potential risk behaviours. Sixth chapter supplementary articles article 28th of this approach by the Head Office of risk management Department is responsible for the interpretation and amendment. 29th spontaneous herein from the date of implementation. Qilu silver computer transmission of qilu Bank documents (2012), No. 289Qilu Bank personal credit on issuing the Notification Guide to business risk management branch, jurisdiction and the jurisdiction of business lines, Jinan branch, head office departments within its jurisdiction: in order to improve the quality of individual credit business, optimize the structure of assets, promotion of 育等观念深入人们心中。经过30多年的政策实施，计划生育生育政策有效地控制了我国人口的过快增长，有效地推动了经济发展和人民生活的改善。然而，近年来该政策的负面影响也开始显现。例如劳动人口绝对数量开始下降，人口老龄化也日益严重，人口抚养比急剧增大，这对经济社会健康、可持续发展将产生一系列影响。2007年初发布的《国家人口发展战略研究 报告 软件系统测试报告下载sgs报告如何下载关于路面塌陷情况报告535n,sgs报告怎么下载竣工报告下载 》(附录1) 还做出了进一步的分析。 党的十八届三中全会提出了开放单独二孩，今年以来许多省、市、自治区相继出台了具体的政策。政策出台前后各方面人士对开放“单独二孩”的效应有过大量的研究和评论。 在以往的人口问题研究中，所应用的理论和模型，都依赖生育模式、生育率，死亡率和性别比等多个因素。除此之外，人口问题还与区域文化有关，不同省市的情况也会有所不同。 问题一 请收集一些典型的研究报告和数据，然后建立广东省人口模型，对广东省人口增长的中短期和长期趋势作出预测。 问题二 分析讨论计划生育新政策(可综合考虑城镇化、延迟退休年龄、养老金统筹等政策因素，但只须选择某一方面作重点讨论)对未来人口数量和年龄结构的影响。 二、 问题分析 分析问题一、二 影响广东省人口的变化和随时间的发展的因素是很多的，例如生活观念，自然环境、生活水平、战争、自然灾害等等， 都会严重地影响广东省人口的增长。然而，出生率、死亡率、人口迁移率却是决定该广东省变化的直接原因，近年来广东省人口发展面临的问题仍然存在，如老龄化问题日益突出、出生人口性别比持高不下，以及乡村人口城镇化等。综合考虑这些因素成为构建符合广东省的人口增长模型是关键。建立模型对人口发展过程进行定量预测，就是根据现有的人口统计资料和原始数据，从当前实际的人口状况出发，并对未来的人口发展过程，提出合理的控制要求和假定，应用科学的方法，预测出未来几年、几十年甚至上百年的人口发展趋势，包括人口总数、人口的性别、年龄和城乡结构，人口出生、死亡和自然增长率的变化以及在未来的人口构成中劳力和抚养水平及老化水平等。而真正要分析好广东省人口的增长，就必须先认识广东省的人口现状。以下便充分利用广东省统计年鉴的数据对广东省人口状况做出简要分析。 real, in each pen business lending Qian not for by pen query, led to mortgage failure of. (Vi) not in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Bank operation, failed to identify false documents, certificates, authorizations, warrants, etc. (VII) in the credit risk management system to provide false information, is not required by the guest rating credit management objective, impartial ratings of credit, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (H) the investigation report conclusions of false record, misleading statement or material omission, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (I) the orders, directives, orders, suggest that others not involved in the investigation business, issued by the investigators. (10) without the approval of authorities, after the first credit investigation, credit first and then record, counter-current process operations such as operation prior to approval. (11) article does not meet the risk management Department, Marketing Management Department to carry out supervision and inspection and due diligence evaluations or providing false information. (12) other violations result in credit business at substantial risk or significant potential risk behaviours. Sixth chapter supplementary articles article 28th of this approach by the Head Office of risk management Department is responsible for the interpretation and amendment. 29th spontaneous herein from the date of implementation. Qilu silver computer transmission of qilu Bank documents (2012), No. 289Qilu Bank personal credit on issuing the Notification Guide to business risk management branch, jurisdiction and the jurisdiction of business lines, Jinan branch, head office departments within its jurisdiction: in order to improve the quality of individual credit business, optimize the structure of assets, promotion of 1、人口总量 9000 8500 8000 总 人7500口 ) 万7000 ) 6500 6000 5500 5000197519801985199019952000200520102015 图1 总人口数据 广东是改革开放的领跑者，经济发展迅速，但因为一些问题导致人均指标全国排名较后，例如，用地规模不合理、生育观落后等。广东省的人口大体上是直线上升的，1978年广东省总人口5064.15万人，上升到2012年8635.89万人口，34年共增长了357.74万。从上图可形象的看出，广东省人口大体呈直线上升。广东省人口的快速增长不免会带来许许多多的问题，这不仅是对政府的考验，也是对计生工作施加压力，更是对广东省人民高素质的硬性要求。 2、家庭户规模 截至2012年我省年末总人口8635.14万人，年末总户数2325.13万户，平均每个家庭人口为3.71人，从图2可知，1995年之后总人口走势与总户数走势基本持平，而总人口走势平缓也反映也计划生育政策对广东省人口增长的影响，总户数增加变缓反映了广东省迁移人口，新婚家庭以及高龄老人独居导致户数增加的趋势变缓。 real, in each pen business lending Qian not for by pen query, led to mortgage failure of. (Vi) not in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Bank operation, failed to identify false documents, certificates, authorizations, warrants, etc. (VII) in the credit risk management system to provide false information, is not required by the guest rating credit management objective, impartial ratings of credit, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (H) the investigation report conclusions of false record, misleading statement or material omission, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (I) the orders, directives, orders, suggest that others not involved in the investigation business, issued by the investigators. (10) without the approval of authorities, after the first credit investigation, credit first and then record, counter-current process operations such as operation prior to approval. (11) article does not meet the risk management Department, Marketing Management Department to carry out supervision and inspection and due diligence evaluations or providing false information. (12) other violations result in credit business at substantial risk or significant potential risk behaviours. Sixth chapter supplementary articles article 28th of this approach by the Head Office of risk management Department is responsible for the interpretation and amendment. 29th spontaneous herein from the date of implementation. Qilu silver computer transmission of qilu Bank documents (2012), No. 289Qilu Bank personal credit on issuing the Notification Guide to business risk management branch, jurisdiction and the jurisdiction of business lines, Jinan branch, head office departments within its jurisdiction: in order to improve the quality of individual credit business, optimize the structure of assets, promotion of 9000 总人口 8000 7000 6000数 值 )5000万 ) 4000 3000总户数 2000 10001994199619982000200220042006200820102012 图2户籍总人口 3、性别构成 广东省总人口性别比在2005年达到最高为106.9，到2011年下降为106.1(女=100)。而2011年后性别比又开始呈上升趋势，这也折射出一些社会问题，如重难轻女思想，孕前性鉴定等。 107 106.9 106.8 106.7 106.6 106.5 106.4 106.3性 别106.2比 106.1 1061994199619982000200220042006200820102012 图3性别比走势图 real, in each pen business lending Qian not for by pen query, led to mortgage failure of. (Vi) not in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Bank operation, failed to identify false documents, certificates, authorizations, warrants, etc. (VII) in the credit risk management system to provide false information, is not required by the guest rating credit management objective, impartial ratings of credit, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (H) the investigation report conclusions of false record, misleading statement or material omission, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (I) the orders, directives, orders, suggest that others not involved in the investigation business, issued by the investigators. (10) without the approval of authorities, after the first credit investigation, credit first and then record, counter-current process operations such as operation prior to approval. (11) article does not meet the risk management Department, Marketing Management Department to carry out supervision and inspection and due diligence evaluations or providing false information. (12) other violations result in credit business at substantial risk or significant potential risk behaviours. Sixth chapter supplementary articles article 28th of this approach by the Head Office of risk management Department is responsible for the interpretation and amendment. 29th spontaneous herein from the date of implementation. Qilu silver computer transmission of qilu Bank documents (2012), No. 289Qilu Bank personal credit on issuing the Notification Guide to business risk management branch, jurisdiction and the jurisdiction of business lines, Jinan branch, head office departments within its jurisdiction: in order to improve the quality of individual credit business, optimize the structure of assets, promotion of real, in each pen business lending Qian not for by pen query, led to mortgage failure of. (Vi) not in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Bank operation, failed to identify false documents, certificates, authorizations, warrants, etc. (VII) in the credit risk management system to provide false information, is not required by the guest rating credit management objective, impartial ratings of credit, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (H) the investigation report conclusions of false record, misleading statement or material omission, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (I) the orders, directives, orders, suggest that others not involved in the investigation business, issued by the investigators. (10) without the approval of authorities, after the first credit investigation, credit first and then record, counter-current process operations such as operation prior to approval. (11) article does not meet the risk management Department, Marketing Management Department to carry out supervision and inspection and due diligence evaluations or providing false information. (12) other violations result in credit business at substantial risk or significant potential risk behaviours. Sixth chapter supplementary articles article 28th of this approach by the Head Office of risk management Department is responsible for the interpretation and amendment. 29th spontaneous herein from the date of implementation. Qilu silver computer transmission of qilu Bank documents (2012), No. 289Qilu Bank personal credit on issuing the Notification Guide to business risk management branch, jurisdiction and the jurisdiction of business lines, Jinan branch, head office departments within its jurisdiction: in order to improve the quality of individual credit business, optimize the structure of assets, promotion of 4、年龄构成 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 02000200220042006200820102012 从上图可知，广东省的老龄人口从2005年开始快速增长，也就意味着广东省的人口老龄化问题也越来越严重，这更本原因是广东省经济社会快速发展，人民生活水平和医疗卫生保健事业的巨大改善，生育率持续保持低水平，老龄化进程逐步加快。 real, in each pen business lending Qian not for by pen query, led to mortgage failure of. (Vi) not in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Bank operation, failed to identify false documents, certificates, authorizations, warrants, etc. (VII) in the credit risk management system to provide false information, is not required by the guest rating credit management objective, impartial ratings of credit, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (H) the investigation report conclusions of false record, misleading statement or material omission, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (I) the orders, directives, orders, suggest that others not involved in the investigation business, issued by the investigators. (10) without the approval of authorities, after the first credit investigation, credit first and then record, counter-current process operations such as operation prior to approval. (11) article does not meet the risk management Department, Marketing Management Department to carry out supervision and inspection and due diligence evaluations or providing false information. (12) other violations result in credit business at substantial risk or significant potential risk behaviours. Sixth chapter supplementary articles article 28th of this approach by the Head Office of risk management Department is responsible for the interpretation and amendment. 29th spontaneous herein from the date of implementation. Qilu silver computer transmission of qilu Bank documents (2012), No. 289Qilu Bank personal credit on issuing the Notification Guide to business risk management branch, jurisdiction and the jurisdiction of business lines, Jinan branch, head office departments within its jurisdiction: in order to improve the quality of individual credit business, optimize the structure of assets, promotion of real, in each pen business lending Qian not for by pen query, led to mortgage failure of. (Vi) not in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Bank operation, failed to identify false documents, certificates, authorizations, warrants, etc. (VII) in the credit risk management system to provide false information, is not required by the guest rating credit management objective, impartial ratings of credit, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (H) the investigation report conclusions of false record, misleading statement or material omission, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (I) the orders, directives, orders, suggest that others not involved in the investigation business, issued by the investigators. (10) without the approval of authorities, after the first credit investigation, credit first and then record, counter-current process operations such as operation prior to approval. (11) article does not meet the risk management Department, Marketing Management Department to carry out supervision and inspection and due diligence evaluations or providing false information. (12) other violations result in credit business at substantial risk or significant potential risk behaviours. Sixth chapter supplementary articles article 28th of this approach by the Head Office of risk management Department is responsible for the interpretation and amendment. 29th spontaneous herein from the date of implementation. Qilu silver computer transmission of qilu Bank documents (2012), No. 289Qilu Bank personal credit on issuing the Notification Guide to business risk management branch, jurisdiction and the jurisdiction of business lines, Jinan branch, head office departments within its jurisdiction: in order to improve the quality of individual credit business, optimize the structure of assets, promotion of 三、 模型假设 1. 人类的生育观念不发生太大改变，如没有集体通过做试管婴儿来繁衍后 代的现象发生。 2. 假设广东省不会发生因国家政策而发生大规模人口迁移现象。 3. 不会发生大型地质灾害、战争、瘟疫等突发事件。 4. 假设本问题所使用的数据都是真实有效的。 5.经济、社会环境，资源等因素不会对人口产生巨大影响。 四、 符号说明 G-----------Grey M-----------Model a-----------发展系数 b-----------------灰色作用量 ˆa----------------待估参数向量 (1)z(k)----------白化背景值 Y------------------数据向量 B------------------数据矩阵 u-------------------参数向量 (0)x----------------总人口数列 (1)x----------------总人口数列向上一次累加数列 d(k)---------------一次累加数列灰导数 z----------------一次累加数列紧邻均值数列 (1) real, in each pen business lending Qian not for by pen query, led to mortgage failure of. (Vi) not in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Bank operation, failed to identify false documents, certificates, authorizations, warrants, etc. (VII) in the credit risk management system to provide false information, is not required by the guest rating credit management objective, impartial ratings of credit, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (H) the investigation report conclusions of false record, misleading statement or material omission, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (I) the orders, directives, orders, suggest that others not involved in the investigation business, issued by the investigators. (10) without the approval of authorities, after the first credit investigation, credit first and then record, counter-current process operations such as operation prior to approval. (11) article does not meet the risk management Department, Marketing Management Department to carry out supervision and inspection and due diligence evaluations or providing false information. (12) other violations result in credit business at substantial risk or significant potential risk behaviours. Sixth chapter supplementary articles article 28th of this approach by the Head Office of risk management Department is responsible for the interpretation and amendment. 29th spontaneous herein from the date of implementation. Qilu silver computer transmission of qilu Bank documents (2012), No. 289Qilu Bank personal credit on issuing the Notification Guide to business risk management branch, jurisdiction and the jurisdiction of business lines, Jinan branch, head office departments within its jurisdiction: in order to improve the quality of individual credit business, optimize the structure of assets, promotion of 五、 模型建立 GM(1,1)预测模型 目前使用座广泛的灰色预测模型就是关于数列预测的一个变量、一阶微分的GM(1,1)模型。GM(1,1)模型是基于随机的原始时间序列，经按时间累加后所形成的新的时间序列呈现的规律可用一阶线性微分方程的解来逼近。经证明，经一阶线性微分方程的解逼近所揭示的原始时间数列呈指数变化规律。因此，当原始时间序列隐含着指数变化规律时，灰色模型GM(1,1)的预测将是非常成功的。GM(1,1)模型建立: (0)(0)(0)(0) 设为原始数列，其1次累加生x,(x(1),x(2),？,x(n)) (1)(1)(1)(1)成数列为，其中x,(x(1),x(2),？,x(n))k(1)(0)(1)x(k),x(i),k,1,2,？,n定义的灰导数为 ,x i,1 (0)(1)(1)d(k),x(k),x(k),x(k,1) (1)(1)(1)(1)(1)令为数列的邻值生成数列，即z,(x(2),x(3),？,x(n))x (1)(1)(1)于是定义GM(1,1)的灰微分方程模型为z(k),,x(k)，(1,,)x(k,1) (1)d(k)，az(k),b (0)(1)x(k)，az(k),b 即 (1) (0)(1)a在式(1)中，x(k) 称为灰导数，称为发展系数，z(k)称为白化背景值，b称为灰作用量。 将时刻k,2,3,？,n代入(1)式有 (0)(1),x(2)，az(2),b ,(0)(1)x(3)，az(3),b, , (1)’ ？？？？, (0)(1),x(n)，az(n),b, 引入矩阵向量记号: real, in each pen business lending Qian not for by pen query, led to mortgage failure of. (Vi) not in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Bank operation, failed to identify false documents, certificates, authorizations, warrants, etc. (VII) in the credit risk management system to provide false information, is not required by the guest rating credit management objective, impartial ratings of credit, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (H) the investigation report conclusions of false record, misleading statement or material omission, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (I) the orders, directives, orders, suggest that others not involved in the investigation business, issued by the investigators. (10) without the approval of authorities, after the first credit investigation, credit first and then record, counter-current process operations such as operation prior to approval. (11) article does not meet the risk management Department, Marketing Management Department to carry out supervision and inspection and due diligence evaluations or providing false information. (12) other violations result in credit business at substantial risk or significant potential risk behaviours. Sixth chapter supplementary articles article 28th of this approach by the Head Office of risk management Department is responsible for the interpretation and amendment. 29th spontaneous herein from the date of implementation. Qilu silver computer transmission of qilu Bank documents (2012), No. 289Qilu Bank personal credit on issuing the Notification Guide to business risk management branch, jurisdiction and the jurisdiction of business lines, Jinan branch, head office departments within its jurisdiction: in order to improve the quality of individual credit business, optimize the structure of assets, promotion of (1)(0)，，,(2)1z，，x(2) ,,,,(1)(0),z(3)1(3)xa，，,,,,,B,Y, , u,,,,,,,b？？？，，,,,,(0)(1)xn()zn,()1,,,,，，，， Y,Bu. 于是GM(1,1)模型可表示为 现在问题归结为求的值。用一元a,b线性回归，即最小二乘法求它们的估计值为 ˆa，，T,1Tˆ u,,(BB)BY,,ˆb，， (0)对于GM(1,1)的灰微分方程(1),如果将灰导数的时刻视为x(k)k,2,3,？,n (1)dx(t)(1)(0)(1)连续变量，则视为时间的函数，于是对应于导数，ttx(k)x(t)xdt (1)(1)让背景值对应于导数。于是GM(1,1)的灰微分方程对于的白微分z(k)x(t) 方程为 (1)dx(t)(1)，ax(t),b (2) dt 称之为GM(1,1)的白化型。 (1)(0)式子(2)以初值的解为 x(t,1),x(1) bb(1)(0),a(t,1)xtxe(),((1),)， aa (0)令为GM(1,1)建模序列， X (0)(0)(0)(0) X,(x(1),x(2),...,x(n))(1)(0)为的1-AGO序列， XX (1)(1)(1)(1) X,(x(1),x(2),...,x(n)) k(1)(0)x(k),x(i),k,1,2,...,n , i,1 real, in each pen business lending Qian not for by pen query, led to mortgage failure of. (Vi) not in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Bank operation, failed to identify false documents, certificates, authorizations, warrants, etc. (VII) in the credit risk management system to provide false information, is not required by the guest rating credit management objective, impartial ratings of credit, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (H) the investigation report conclusions of false record, misleading statement or material omission, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (I) the orders, directives, orders, suggest that others not involved in the investigation business, issued by the investigators. (10) without the approval of authorities, after the first credit investigation, credit first and then record, counter-current process operations such as operation prior to approval. (11) article does not meet the risk management Department, Marketing Management Department to carry out supervision and inspection and due diligence evaluations or providing false information. (12) other violations result in credit business at substantial risk or significant potential risk behaviours. Sixth chapter supplementary articles article 28th of this approach by the Head Office of risk management Department is responsible for the interpretation and amendment. 29th spontaneous herein from the date of implementation. Qilu silver computer transmission of qilu Bank documents (2012), No. 289Qilu Bank personal credit on issuing the Notification Guide to business risk management branch, jurisdiction and the jurisdiction of business lines, Jinan branch, head office departments within its jurisdiction: in order to improve the quality of individual credit business, optimize the structure of assets, promotion of (1)(1)令为的紧邻均值(MEAN)生成序列 ZX (1)(1)(1)(1) Z,(z(1),z(2),...,z(n)) (1)(1)(1) z(k),0.5x(k)，0.5x(k,1)则GM(1,1)的定义型，即GM(1,1)的灰微分方程模型为 (0)(1) (3) x(k)，az(k),b Tˆ设为待估参数向量，即，则灰微分方程(3)的最小二乘估计参数列满a,(a,b)ˆa 足 TT,1 ˆ a,(BB)BYn其中 (0)(1)，，x(2)，，,z(2)1,,,,(0)(1)x(3),z(3)1,,,,Y, B, n,,,,.........,,,,(0)(1)xn(),,zn,()1,,，，，， 称 (1)dx(1)，ax,b (4) dt (0)(1)为灰色微分方程的白化方程，也叫影子方程。 x(k)，az(k),b 如上所述，则有 (1)dx(1)，ax,b1)白化方程的解也称时间响应函数为 dt bb(1)(1),a(t,1)ˆxtxe(),((0),)， aa (0)(1)x(k)，az(k),b2)GM(1,1)灰色微分方程的时间响应序列为 bb(1)(1),a(k)ˆx(k，1),(x(0),)e，,k,1,2,...,n aa (1)(0)3)取，则 x(0),x(1) real, in each pen business lending Qian not for by pen query, led to mortgage failure of. (Vi) not in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Bank operation, failed to identify false documents, certificates, authorizations, warrants, etc. (VII) in the credit risk management system to provide false information, is not required by the guest rating credit management objective, impartial ratings of credit, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (H) the investigation report conclusions of false record, misleading statement or material omission, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (I) the orders, directives, orders, suggest that others not involved in the investigation business, issued by the investigators. (10) without the approval of authorities, after the first credit investigation, credit first and then record, counter-current process operations such as operation prior to approval. (11) article does not meet the risk management Department, Marketing Management Department to carry out supervision and inspection and due diligence evaluations or providing false information. (12) other violations result in credit business at substantial risk or significant potential risk behaviours. Sixth chapter supplementary articles article 28th of this approach by the Head Office of risk management Department is responsible for the interpretation and amendment. 29th spontaneous herein from the date of implementation. Qilu silver computer transmission of qilu Bank documents (2012), No. 289Qilu Bank personal credit on issuing the Notification Guide to business risk management branch, jurisdiction and the jurisdiction of business lines, Jinan branch, head office departments within its jurisdiction: in order to improve the quality of individual credit business, optimize the structure of assets, promotion of bb(1)(0),a(k)ˆx(k，1),(x(1),)e，,k,1,2,...,n aa 4)还原值 (0)(1)(1)ˆˆˆx(k，1),x(k，1),x(k) 六、 模型评价及推广 实际检验 正文用小四号宋体书写，„„ 模型的创新 正文用小四号宋体书写，„„ real, in each pen business lending Qian not for by pen query, led to mortgage failure of. (Vi) not in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Bank operation, failed to identify false documents, certificates, authorizations, warrants, etc. (VII) in the credit risk management system to provide false information, is not required by the guest rating credit management objective, impartial ratings of credit, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (H) the investigation report conclusions of false record, misleading statement or material omission, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (I) the orders, directives, orders, suggest that others not involved in the investigation business, issued by the investigators. (10) without the approval of authorities, after the first credit investigation, credit first and then record, counter-current process operations such as operation prior to approval. (11) article does not meet the risk management Department, Marketing Management Department to carry out supervision and inspection and due diligence evaluations or providing false information. (12) other violations result in credit business at substantial risk or significant potential risk behaviours. Sixth chapter supplementary articles article 28th of this approach by the Head Office of risk management Department is responsible for the interpretation and amendment. 29th spontaneous herein from the date of implementation. Qilu silver computer transmission of qilu Bank documents (2012), No. 289Qilu Bank personal credit on issuing the Notification Guide to business risk management branch, jurisdiction and the jurisdiction of business lines, Jinan branch, head office departments within its jurisdiction: in order to improve the quality of individual credit business, optimize the structure of assets, promotion of 模型的不足之处及改善 正文用小四号宋体书写，„„ 模型对实际生产的指导意见 正文用小四号宋体书写，„„ 七、 文献参考 real, in each pen business lending Qian not for by pen query, led to mortgage failure of. (Vi) not in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Bank operation, failed to identify false documents, certificates, authorizations, warrants, etc. (VII) in the credit risk management system to provide false information, is not required by the guest rating credit management objective, impartial ratings of credit, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (H) the investigation report conclusions of false record, misleading statement or material omission, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (I) the orders, directives, orders, suggest that others not involved in the investigation business, issued by the investigators. (10) without the approval of authorities, after the first credit investigation, credit first and then record, counter-current process operations such as operation prior to approval. (11) article does not meet the risk management Department, Marketing Management Department to carry out supervision and inspection and due diligence evaluations or providing false information. (12) other violations result in credit business at substantial risk or significant potential risk behaviours. Sixth chapter supplementary articles article 28th of this approach by the Head Office of risk management Department is responsible for the interpretation and amendment. 29th spontaneous herein from the date of implementation. Qilu silver computer transmission of qilu Bank documents (2012), No. 289Qilu Bank personal credit on issuing the Notification Guide to business risk management branch, jurisdiction and the jurisdiction of business lines, Jinan branch, head office departments within its jurisdiction: in order to improve the quality of individual credit business, optimize the structure of assets, promotion of [编号] 作者，书名，出版地:出版社，出版年。 [编号] 作者，论文名，杂志名，卷期号:起止页码，出版年。 [编号] 作者，资源标题，网址，访问时间(年月日)。 附录一 GM(1，1)预测模型求解程序: real, in each pen business lending Qian not for by pen query, led to mortgage failure of. (Vi) not in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Bank operation, failed to identify false documents, certificates, authorizations, warrants, etc. (VII) in the credit risk management system to provide false information, is not required by the guest rating credit management objective, impartial ratings of credit, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (H) the investigation report conclusions of false record, misleading statement or material omission, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (I) the orders, directives, orders, suggest that others not involved in the investigation business, issued by the investigators. (10) without the approval of authorities, after the first credit investigation, credit first and then record, counter-current process operations such as operation prior to approval. (11) article does not meet the risk management Department, Marketing Management Department to carry out supervision and inspection and due diligence evaluations or providing false information. (12) other violations result in credit business at substantial risk or significant potential risk behaviours. Sixth chapter supplementary articles article 28th of this approach by the Head Office of risk management Department is responsible for the interpretation and amendment. 29th spontaneous herein from the date of implementation. Qilu silver computer transmission of qilu Bank documents (2012), No. 289Qilu Bank personal credit on issuing the Notification Guide to business risk management branch, jurisdiction and the jurisdiction of business lines, Jinan branch, head office departments within its jurisdiction: in order to improve the quality of individual credit business, optimize the structure of assets, promotion of 注:打印前请加上页码，从承诺书开始为第一页。页码在页面底端居中，用阿拉 伯数字。 real, in each pen business lending Qian not for by pen query, led to mortgage failure of. (Vi) not in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Bank operation, failed to identify false documents, certificates, authorizations, warrants, etc. (VII) in the credit risk management system to provide false information, is not required by the guest rating credit management objective, impartial ratings of credit, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (H) the investigation report conclusions of false record, misleading statement or material omission, resulting in credit decision-making errors. (I) the orders, directives, orders, suggest that others not involved in the investigation business, issued by the investigators. (10) without the approval of authorities, after the first credit investigation, credit first and then record, counter-current process operations such as operation prior to approval. (11) article does not meet the risk management Department, Marketing Management Department to carry out supervision and inspection and due diligence evaluations or providing false information. (12) other violations result in credit business at substantial risk or significant potential risk behaviours. Sixth chapter supplementary articles article 28th of this approach by the Head Office of risk management Department is responsible for the interpretation and amendment. 29th spontaneous herein from the date of implementation. Qilu silver computer transmission of qilu Bank documents (2012), No. 289Qilu Bank personal credit on issuing the Notification Guide to business risk management branch, jurisdiction and the jurisdiction of business lines, Jinan branch, head office departments within its jurisdiction: in order to improve the quality of individual credit business, optimize the structure of assets, promotion of