基于经济福利最大化理论的中国钾肥资源市场评价

基于经济福利最大化理论的中国钾肥资源市场 评价 LEC评价法下载LEC评价法下载评价量规免费下载学院评价表文档下载学院评价表文档下载 ??30????6????????????????Vol.30,No.62008??6??RESOURCESSCIENCEJune,2008????????:1007-7588(2008)06-0815-07??????????????????????????????????????????????????1,2,??????1,??????3(11????????????????????????,??????810008;21??????????????????,??????100049;31??????????????????????????????,??????100101)??????????:????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,????????????????????????????????????????,??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,????????????????????????????(1998??????,1998??2006)??????????????????????;????,??????????????????????????????????(2006??????);????,??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????:1998??????,????????????????????????????????????,??????????????????????????????,????????????????????????????,????????????????????????;1998??2006??????,??????????????????????????,??????????????????,??????????????????????????,????????????????????????????????????;2006??????,????????????????,????????????????????,??????????????????2010??????1096??410t(K2O)????????????:????????;????????????;????????;??????????????1??????????????????????????????????(??????????)??????????????????????,????????????????????\[6\],??????????????????????,????????????????????????:??????????????????????????????????????,????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????(??????????????216%\[1\]),????????????,????????????????????????????,????????????????????????????????????????????\[7??9\],??????????????????????????????????????,??????????????,??????????????????????????????????????????????????,??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,??????????????????????????,??????????????????????????????????????????????,??????????????????????????,??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????2????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????211??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,IFA????,??????????????????????????;????????,????????????????1991????2006??16????????(??1)??????????????????????????,??????\[2\],??????????????,????1991????1997????????????????????;????\[3\]????????????????????????????????????,????1998????2006??????????????????,????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,??????????????;??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????\[4\]??????????????,??:????????????????????????,;D????????????????????????????????????????????arst??????????????????????????????????\[5\];Velk??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????:2007-10-28;????????:2008-03-10????????:??????????????:??????????????????????????????????????(????:O641021114)??????????:??????,??,??????????,??????,????????????????????E2mail:moonsun0403@1631com????????:??????,E2mail:haizhou@isl.ac.cn 816????????????????30????6????1??1991????2006????????????????????????;Q8??????????Q??s??????????Qd??Table1??Statisticsdataofpotassiumfertilizer????????????????inChinafrom1991to2006(??104t)(1)??????????(P2)????????????(P6)??,??????????????????????????????????????????D????????????????????(Q4)????????????????tQtQ1tQ2t????Pt????????(1991=100)(Q2)??????,??????????????????????????199117319194189181851010010(P1Q2Q6P3)????????????????(Q2)????????????199219610182119111731010011(P2Q2Q6P3)??????????????(P1Q2P2),????????199321213147107101401010512????????????????????????????????????????199423418208171117197109416(P1Q3P3)??199526815308174117267109011(2)??????????(P3)????????????????((P6)199628916286184418242109112??,??? ???????????????????(Q1,????????????)1997322104051752173531010216????????(????????Q5)??????,????????????????1998345174241955193691010517????????????????????????(P1Q7Q1P4)????????1999365164191562153571010719????(P4Q1P3)??????????????????????????????200037615459176017399101091420013991648714130143571013012??????????????(P1Q3P3)??20024221460311147114561013314(3)????????????????????,????????????????20034381058912167124241012910??????(Q??s)??????????????????????(Q8)??,??20044671363818206134321517014????????????????????????????????????????????20054891567716232114451517319????????,????????????????(Q3Q8P3),????????20066621580611249105571117519????????????????????????:????????IFA??????????????????????1991????2006??,(4)????????????????????????????????????(??????????????????????????(K2O)????????????)??????????????????,??????????????????????????212??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,????????????????????????????????????????????????,?????????????????8?????,????????????????????,????????????????,????????????????(??????????????????????,??????????????????????????????)??????????????,??????????????213????????????????????????????\[9\]??????????????????,????????????????????????????????????,????????????????????????????,????????????????????????????????????,????????????????,????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,????????????,????????????????????;??????????????????????????:????????????????????????:(1)????????????????????????????????,??:??????????????????????????????????????????????\[10\]??(2)??????????(Q2)t????????(Q1)t????????(Q)t??(3)????????????????,?????????????????????????????????????????5???????????????????(4)????????????????????????????????????1??,Qs:??????????????;Qd:????????????;Pi:????????????????;Qi:??????????????????1????????????????????????????Fig.1??Analyticequilibriummodelofpotassiumfertilizermarket;Q3????????????Qs????????????Qd???????? ??30????6??????????:????????????????????????????????????????????817Q1t=f(P)t=A+B1Pt+U1t????????????????????????,??????????????????;Q2????1992????1993????1996??????????????????t=g(Pt,Q1)t=B2Pt+B3Q1t+U2t(1)Qt=Q??????????????????????????????????3????,??1t+Q2t=A+(B1+B2)P????????+B3Q1t+(U1t+U2)????????????????????????????????????????????t??????,????????????????????????,??????????????:Q1t,??????????????t????????????????;Pt,t??????????????????;Q2t,????????????????,??????????????????;??????????????????????t??????????????????????????????????????????????????,????;Qt,??????????t????????(Qt=????????????????????????????????????????????Q1t+Q2)t;A,B1,B2,B3??????????;U1t,U2t:????????????????????????????????,??????????????????????????????????????,??????????????????????,??????????,??????(t)????????????????(D)t??????????????????;????,??1992????1993????1996????(??????????Fa??????????????????????????????,????????????????????,????????????????Fb????????????Fc)????,????????????????????????????,????????????????????????????????????,??:??4????????1991????1997??????,????????D??????????:??????????????????,??????????????t=h(Fa,Fb,Fc)Fa=h????????????????????,??????????????????????1(t)]DtFb=h1??????,??????????????????????????????????2(t)F??????????????????,????????????????????????c=h3(t)????????????,????????????,??????????????????=h[h1(t),h2(t),h3(t)](2)3????????????????????????(??????????????)????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,??????????????:??1980????????1990??????,????????????,????????;??1991??1997????,??????????????,????????????;1998????2006??,????????????????????????????????,??????????????;2006????????WTO??????????????????????????????????????????????????????,??????????????????????????3????????????????????????,??:??????????????????? ???????????2????????????(Q1)t????????(Q2)t????????????????(1998??????);????????????????????Fig.2??Domesticpotassium(Q1)tandimportedpotassium(Q2)tfertilizer(1998????2006??);??????????????????????(2006??????)311??????????????????????????????????????(1991????1997??)????????????,????????????????????????????????????,????????????????????,????????????????,????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,??????????????????????????????????????????????????????2????????,????????????????????????????3????????????(Q1)t???????(Q2)t??????????(P)t??????1991 ????1997??????,????????????????;Fig.3??Potassiumfertilizerofthedomestic(Q1)t?theimported??????????????????????????,????????????????potassium(Q2)tandpriceindex(P),t 818????????????????30????6????????????????312????????????????????????????????????????(1998??2006)??????????????????????????????????????:??????????????????????????????,????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,??????????????????????????,??????????????????????,??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,??4????????????(Q)t????????????(D)t,1991??1997??????????????????????????????????????Fig.4??Potassiumfertilizersupply(Q)tanddemand(D)t,1991??1997??5????????1998??2006??????,????????????????????????????????:????????,????????????????????????????????????????1991??1997????????????????(??4),??????????????????????????????????????????6????,????????,????????????????????????????????,??????????????????,????????????????7??????????????,??????????????????????????????????????????????????,??????????????????????,??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????5????????????(Q)t????????????(D)t,1998??20061F????????,??????????????????????????????;????ig.5??Potassiumfertilizersupply(Q)tanddemand(D)t,1998??20062001????2003??,??????????????????????????????,??????????????????,????????????????????????????????????,????????2007????????????????WTO??????????????????????2003??????????????????????,??????????????????????????,????????????????????????????,??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,??1998????2006??????,??????????????????,????????????????????????,??6????????????(Q1)t????????(Q2)t??????????????????????????,????????????????????????Fig.6??Domesticpotassium(Q1)tandimported??????1991????1997??????,??????????????:??potassium(Q2)tfertilizer??,??????????????????????????,??????????????????????????????????????????,????????,????????????????????????????????,????????????????????????????????????????????????;????,????????????????,??????????????????????????,??????1991????1997??????,????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,??????????????????????????????????????????,??????????????????,????????????????,??????????????????????????,????????????????????????????????????????????????????,??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????:??????,??????????????????????????????????????????,????????,????????\[13\]????????????????????????????????????,??????????????????????????????????????????????????????,??????????????????????;????????,????????????????????????????????????????,????????????,????????????????????????????????????,?????????????????? ??30????6??????????:????????????????????????????????????????????819????????????????????????????????,????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,??????????????????????????\[13\]??313????????????????????????????????????????(2006????)1998????,????????????????????????????????????,??2006????????????????????,????,??????1998????2006??????????????2006???0???????????????????????(????3??????4????8????9)????:??????????????????????????????????7????????????(Q1)t ???????(Q2)t??????????(P)(R2=t0196????????)??????????(R2=0192)??????????????(R2=0188),??????????(R2)????????????????????????Fig.7??Potassiumfertilizerofthedomestic(Q1)t?theimportedpotassium(Q2)tandpriceindex(P)t(1)????????????:Q1t=f(P)t=-0100 6P2t+412Pt-314??????(R2=0196)Q2t=f(P)t=010061P2t-011Pt+3153(3)??????(R2=0192)Qt=Q1t+Q2t=010001P2t+411Pt+1????(2)????????????:Dt=h(Fa,Fb,Fc)Fa=h1(t)Fb=h2(t)??8????????????(Q1)t,??????(Q2)t????????(Q)t??????(FQ??1t,Q??2t,Q??)tc=h3(t)Fig.8??Thesimulatedpotassiumfertilizerofthedomestic(Q??1)t,]Dt=h[h1(t),h2(t),h3(t)]=67Ln(t)+324imported(Q??2)tandthetotal(Q??)t(4)????????????Q1t??????:??????????????????????????????????????????;????????????????350??,????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,????????????????????????????,????????????????,????????????????????????????,??????????????????????????????????????????????????,??????????????????????????????????????????Q2t????:????????????????????????9????????????(D)t??????(D??)t??????????,????????????,????????????????,??Fig.9??Thesimulatedpotassiumfertilizerdemand(Dt??)????????,????????????????????????????????,????????,??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,??????????????????????????????????,??????????????????????????????????Qt????:????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????Dt????:??????????2010??????1096????????????????????????????????????,????410t(K2O)??2020??1120??410t(K2O)??2030??????????????????Qt=Dt??????,????????????41294??10t(K2O)???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? 820????????????????30????6????????????????,??????????????????????????????(4)??????????????????????:????????????????????????????????,??????????????????????????????????????;????????????????????????????????????????,??????????????????,??????????????,????????????????????????????????????????????????????,????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,(5)??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,????????????,????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????\[13\]??????????,????????????????????,??????????????????,??????????????????????????????????,??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????(????????????????)??????,????????????????????????:??????????????????\[13\]??????,??????????????????????????????????????????:????????????????,????????????,??????????????????????????????????????????????;??????????????????;??????????,????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????;????????????????????????????4????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,??????????????????:????????????????(References):????????????????????????????????????????????\[1]????????.??????????????????????????????\[J\].??????????????????????????????????????;??????????????,2005,20(1):10??131\[WANGXiao2feng.Thepotashresources????????????athomeandabroadandcurrentstatusoftheirexploitationand1991????2006??????????????????utilization\[J\].PhosphateandCompoundFertilizer,2005,20(1):10????;????????????????????????????????????????131]????????????????:\[2]????????.????????????????????????????????????????????(1)??1991??1997????1998??2006????????\[J\].????????????,2006,31(5):1??51\[ZHANGXiao2wei.,??????????????????????????????????????,??????Influenceofinternationalpotashfertilizermarketonpotashfertilizer??????????productionandsupply2demandrelationsinChina\[J\].Industrial;???????????????????????????????? ????????????MineralsandProcessing,2006,31(5):1??51]\[3]????????,??????.??????????????????????????????\[J\].??(2)??????????????????????,????????????????????,2003,31(5):3??91\[GUYong2hong,HUHan2hui.Over2??????????,????????????????????????????,????competitivemarketstructureofchemicalfertilizerindustryinChina????????????????\[J\].JournaloftheChemicalFertilizerIndustry,2003,31(5):3??9\]\[4]????????.??????????????????????????????????????\[M\].(3)??????????????????????????,??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????:??????????????????,20031\[PENGDa2iyan.AgricultureProductionFactorsAllocationandEconometricAnalysisofthe????????????????:??????????75%????????????DemandsandSuppliesofAgriculturalProducts\[M\].Wuhan:??,????????????????????,????????????????????HuazhongUniversityofScienceandTechnologyPress,20031]??????????????????????,????????????????????\[5]??Darst,B.C.Developmentofthepotashfertilizerindustry\[J\].????????????????????Q1t=FertilizerResearch,1991,28:103??1071f(P)t????????,??????????????????????????????\[6]??Velk,P.L.G.TheroleoffertilizersinsustainingagricultureinSub2,??????????????SaharanAfrica\[J\].FertilizerResearch,1990,26:327??339.350??,????????????????:????????????,??????\[7]??He,H.,JieZhou,YongjaoWu,etal.Modelingtheresponseof??????????,????????????????????????????,????surfacewaterqualitytotheurbanizationinXi??an,China\[J\].Journal????????????????????????????????????????????ofEnvironmentalManagement.2008,86:731??7491??\[8]??He,H.,JieZhou,YongjaoWu,etal.Estimatingwaterquality:????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????pollutionimpactsbasedoneconomiclossmodelsinurbanizationprocessinXi??an,China\[J\].JournalofUrbanPlanningand??,??????????????????????????????????,??????Development,2007,133(3):151??1601????????????\[9]??David,RHakes.TheStudyGuideforPrinciplesofEconomics\[M\]. ??30????6??????????:????????????????????????????????????????????821Beijing:ChinaMachinePress,20041]\[12\]????????????????????.2006??????????????\[M\].????:??\[10\]????????,????.????????????????????\[J\].????????????,????????????,20061\[EditorialBoardofChinaStatistical1997,(4):31??321\[XINGWen2ying,LIRong.StudyontheYearbook,2006ChinaStatisticalYearbook,Beijing:\[M\].Beijing:applicationefficiencyofpotassiumfertilizerathome\[J\].ResearchofChinaStatisticsPress,20061]ChinaAgriculturalTechnologyExtension,1997,(4):31??321]\[13\]????????????.??????????????????\[M\].????:????????????\[11\]??InternationalFertilizerAssociation.IFAstatistics.\[EB?OL\]http?:???,19981\[Stiglitz,JosephE.WhyIsThere aRoleforthewww.fertilizer.org?ifa?statistics?indiactors?table.asp,2007-06-201Govern ment\[M\].Beijing:ChinaMaterialPress,19918]EvaluationofChina??sPotassiumFertilizerMarketbasedonWelfareMaximizationWUYong2jiao1,2,MAHai2zhou1,DONGSuo2cheng3(11QinghaiInstituteofSaltLakes,CAS,Xining810008,China;21GraduateUniversityofChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100049,China;31InstituteofGeographicSciencesandNaturalResourcesResearch,CAS,Beijing100101,China)Abstract:Understandingpotassiumfertilizersupplyanddemandisimportantintermsofthefertilizermarketandsustainabledevelopmentofagriculture.ThisstudyanalyzestherelationshipbetweenpotassiumfertilizersupplyanddemandandevaluatesChina??spotassiumfertilizermarketbasedontheeconomictheoryofwelfare2maximization.Weevaluatethecharacteristicsofpotassiumfertilizersupplyanddemandinthreetimeperiods(before1998,1998??2006,andafter2006)andproposemeasurestooptimizethepotassiumfertilizermarket.Chinahasbeenamajorconsumerofpotashresourcesandpotassiumfertilizerfordecades.Consumptionofpotassiumfertilizerincreasedby10%annuallyfrom1991to2006,reaching616milliontonsin20061Onlyabout25%ofthatwasproducedinChina.PotassiumfertilizermarketsweredominatedbydifferentdrivingforcesduringChina??sdifferenteconomicde velopmentstages.Before1998,themarketwasrestrictedbycentralizedplanning,andpriceandproductionweredirectlycontrolledbythegovernment,somarketpricesforpotassiumfertilizerdidn??tdirectlyreflectsupplyanddemand,andresourceallocationwasinefficient.During1998??2006,thepotassiumfertilizermarketwasaffectedbyimmaturemarketmechanisms,andwhilemarketpricesbegantoreflectsupplyanddemand,resourceallocationwasnotfullyefficient,althoughitshowedimprovements.After2006,marketpricehasmoreefficientlyreflectedpotassiumfertilizersupplyanddemandasthemarketeconomycontinuestomature,andsuppliersbecomemorerationalandfunctionaccordingtomarketdemand,improvingtheefficiencyofresourceallocation.Potassiumfertilizerdemandisexpectedtoreach11milliontons.Thisstudysuggeststhatafullymaturemarketeconomyhelpstooptimizepotassiumfertilizersupplyanddemandandresourceallocation.Simulationresultsofourpredictivemodel(after2006)showedapositivecorrelationbetweenpotassiumfertilizerproductionandprice.Incomingyears,potassiumfertilizerdemandwillcontinuetoincreaseduetopopulationgrowthandfoodsupplyrequirements.Domesticandimportedsupplieswillbeoptimizedunderaconsumption2demandfunctionandproductionfunction,andallparticipantswillreceivethemaximumsocialwelfare.Thegovernmentshouldcultivateboththedomesticandinternationalmarketstobalancepotassiumfertilizersupplyanddemand.Keywords:Potash;Potassiumfertilizer;Demandandsupply;Economicwelfaretheory