sylvia的学习笔记_2

Sylvia的学习笔记_2... Analysis of Income Taxes Sylvia @ 2005-02-27 16:32终于开始我的L2之旅了,希望还来得及。今天说说关于所得税的理解和一些细节。 1.Income tax expense = Taxes payable + Deferred income tax expense, 这右边第二项正的就是deferred tax liability,负的就是deferred tax asset。这个公式简单理解成所得税费用就包括实际交税(cash item)和应该补交或可以抵扣的那部分税(non-cash item)。这也表明,deferred tax asset/liability这两个科目的产生都是以difference will reverse in future years为前提的。 2.Deferred tax liability 之所以产生,是因为今年实际交税少了,以后还是要补的,所以可简单理解成负债。也就是说taxes payable < income tax expense, ie. Taxable income < pretax income. Deferred tax asset相反的产生过程,无需多讲。但它有valuation allowance,也是一个备抵项目,但需要记住的是valuation allowance applies exclusively to deferred tax asset。也是,出于谨慎性原则,对于资产才要备抵一下,负债从来不算这个的。另外,涉及到备抵账户的,往往是管理层操纵业绩的一种手段,这种职业敏感性是要不断加强的。比如allowance就会增加tax expense, 那相应净利润就会 减少。3.Deferred tax liability/asset的计算:列出两张表,分别based on tax return和financial reporting,然后两相比较,很容易得出。4.Liability method和Deferred method 的最大区别:the treatment of changes in tax rates. The deferred method is unaffected by changes in tax rates while the liability method adjusts deferred assets and liabilities to reflect the new tax rates. 5.Change in tax rates: 在Liability method方法之下,税率变动,账面上的deferred asset/ability也要revalue来反映今后它们reverse的当前价值。假设税率上升,那么deferred liability就会增加今年的income tax expense,这会使得净利润和股东权益都下降; deferred asset的作用刚好相反。由于一般而言,都是deferred liability > deferred asset,所以通常,税率上升的总体结果表现就是cause net income and stockholder’s equity to decline. 6.Deferred tax liability应该被当作一项负债还是权益?这在进行财务分析 时尤需分清。In many cases, it may be unlikely that deferred tax liabilities will be paid. For example, if a company has deferred tax liabilities occurring, solely because of the use of accelerated depreciation for tax purposes and the company’s capital expenditures are expected to continue to grow in the foreseeable future, the deferred tax liability will not reverse and should be considered as equity. However, if growth is expected to stop or slow considerably, the liability will reverse and it should be considered as a true liability. 也就是说,关键在于看这个递延负债究竟有无可能reverse!如果它将无限期的递延下去,那么把它看作权益更加合适。每每看到类似跟财务分析直接相关的小细节,还是由衷的开心,难说以后哪天就在研究 报告 软件系统测试报告下载sgs报告如何下载关于路面塌陷情况报告535n,sgs报告怎么下载竣工报告下载 中show一下呢,不过需要先确认一下国内是否也是如此操作呵。原来,学习会计也是有乐趣的,我的问题就是本科的那帮老师,以至于让我对专业完全丧失了兴趣。我无意说出任何刻薄的话,但是真的觉得为人师如此,无论是学识还是做人,都是应该惭愧的。当然,我自己也应该惭愧,算了算了,现在辛苦些重新学起吧,今年把CPA的会计也报了,融会贯通加深印象。扯远了,还是回到上面这个问题。有时,如果这个non-reversal是可以肯定的话,那索性就把deferred tax liability记入stockholders’ equity,这样做的后果就是debt-to-equity ratio减小,有时这个减幅还是挺大的呢。Sometimes, instead of reclassifying deferred liabilities as stockholders’ equity, the analyst might just ignore deferred taxes altogether. This is done if non-reversal is uncertain or financial statement depreciation is deemed inadequate and it is therefore difficult to justify an increase in stockholders’ equity. Some creditors, notably banks, simply ignore deferred taxes. 所以说,在这个问题上,分析师必需case-by-case。 7.Temporary difference: The differences between tax and financial reporting that will reverse in the future and will affect taxable income when they reverse。比如两种记账分别采用不同的折旧计提方法,但这两者的差别会随着该资产的消亡而消失。(Each individual depreciation for an existing asset will reverse over the course of the life of that asset, that is why it is considered a temporary difference and creates a deferred tax liability.) 假设交税是以DDB计提方法,报表是以直线计提法,如果公司快速发展,不断购买新的固定资产,那么这两者的差距就会一直延续下去,而deferred tas/liability的reversal也将被无限推迟。Permanent difference: the differences between tax and financial reporting that are not expected to reverse in the future. 比如warranty expenses, tax-loss carry forwards. 永久性差异无所谓推迟了,压根不会reverse的。如果光是永久性差异的话,tax expense就是tax payable, 两者之所以有差别,都是因为暂时性差异。因此也看出,deferred asset/liability都只跟暂时性差异有关。8.递延税款分析时最好用计算PV: 即便deferred asset/liability已经确定会 reverse, because the payments may occur far into the future, an analyst should revalue the liability or asset at its present value. The difference between the stated value and the present value of deferred taxes should be treated as equity. 最后这句话尤为希奇,记一下。9.Indefinite Reversals: 有时候difference究竟会不会reverse不那么容易确定。The most common of these differences is the undistributed earnings of unconsolidated subsidiaries or joint ventures. If income is earned but not distributed back to the parent company in the form of dividends, the income will be reflected on the income statement as pretax income but will not appear on the tax return. The parent may consider this income to be permanently reinvested in the subsidiary. In that case, the difference will never be reversed. The company can treat this difference as permanent if the parent controls the subsidiary or joint venture. 有关合并报表的东西,以后再研究吧。以上是L1的内容,毫无印象,可见当时准备时基本都没看,幸好蒙过了。现在要认真了。1.Tax loss carryforward: the current net taxable loss that is used to reduce taxable income (thus, taxes payable) in future years. If future taxable income is assured, the loss carryforward is an asset. However, if future income is not assured, the loss carryforward is reduced by a valuation allowance. 2.Deferred liability/asset的产生一级里边都有讲过,Income tax disclosures需要多看几遍,factors influencing deferred taxes是一级的深化。看来重读一级是非常必要的,否则不知其所云的感觉真是痛苦。再次提到:the analyst’s goal is to determine whether the deferrals are appropriately classified as assets and liabilities on the balance sheet. This determination is based on whether the deferred assets and liabilities are actually expected to reverse in the future. 教程安排还是挺不错的,先是告诉你简单的处理,随后是复习、补充、深化。这种方式对于我这种天资一般的人来说还是颇为管用的。我喜欢每次懂多一点的欣喜,很有层次感的收获。二级里边把处理方式归纳了一下:If deferred tax assets or liabilities are expected to reverse in the future, they are best classified as assets or liabilities respectively. 调整为现值的要求依然跟一级一样, Indefinite reversal那段话原封不动再次提起。If reversal is not expected, deferred tax assets are reduced by increasing the valuation allowance; deferred tax liabilities are removed from the balance sheet and the equity account is increased by the amount of the eliminated liability. 关于税率变动和公司持续购买固定资产导致无限推迟reverse等等内容跟一级一模一样。唯一增加的内容是Nonrucurring items对递延税项的影像。3.Deferred liability 对财务报表的影响:首先依然要解决项目性质归属问题,是负债还是权益?也就是上面的第6点。归纳起来就是这样三种情形:A. 如果这个Def. L不可能reverse的话(主要是因为固定资产的持续投入),就把它视为权益好了;B. 但是哪天公司放慢了投资,这个Def. L最终会reverse,那就应该把它视作真正的负债。C. 如果对于reversal的可能性根本就不清楚,或者分析师认为financial statement提的折旧不够,那他最好选择索性忽略这个Def. L。新内容是:假设reversal会发生,那么将来必然有一笔现金流出, reduction in future cash flow = deferred tax expense / statutory tax rate taxable income = pretax income – deferred tax expense / statutory tax rate Deferred asset对财务报表的影响:基本上跟Def. L的作用相反,如果分析师认为这个Def. A不可能reverse的话,那他应该同时减少以下科目: Deferred asset (net of the valuation allowance)、Income、Stockholders’ equity. increase in future cash flow = deferred tax expense / statutory tax rate taxable income = pretax income + deferred tax expense / statutory tax rate 4. PV: The difference between the stated value and the present value of deferred taxes should be treated as equity. 上面没懂的这句话L2通过一个例子让我明白了,原因就在于资产负债表右边的负债+权益并不因为 递延负债的reclassification而增加/减少,因为资产是一定的。那递延负债PV与账面价值的差额,只能加到权益里边去了。这些工作主要是分析师在进行financial ratio计算是做的调整。至于考试中,估计会让你分别计算unadjusted和adjusted的debt-to-equity ratio. 一般来说,如果把Def. L 归为权益的话,负债率会降低,这个不难理解,负债减少了。 5. Reconciliation between the Effective and Statutory Tax Rates: 这个好烦,以前的报表分析中基本上税都是跳着看的,因为不懂。现在看了还是没有感性认识,再说了。 a) Effective tax rate = income tax expense / pretax income b) When estimating future earnings and cash flows, the analyst should understand each element of the reconciliation, including its relative impacts, how each has changed with time, and how each is likely to change in the future. 这西往往是需要分析师从企业获取更多信息的,可当 作调研的一部份。 c) In analyzing trends in tax rates, it is important to only include reconciliation items that are continuous in natures rather than those that are sporadic. 持续的有:different rates in different countries, tax-exempt income, non-deductible expense. 零散的有:the occurrence of large dollar amounts of asset sales, tax holiday savings. 计算中的一些小结:1)Def. Asset和Def. Liability是要分开考虑计算的,这个没问题,但在具体算区别的正负时,为了避免弄错,不要记公式了,还是从计提的后果分析,看其对Def. Asset和Def. Liability的影响是增加还是减少。所得税就算告一段落吧,依旧肤浅的很,想来CPA肯定繁琐的要命。阅读全文(1360) / 评论(2) / 给Sylvia留言/ 扔小纸条/ 文件夹: CFA 收藏: QQ书签del.icio.us Business Valuation_5: Prospective Analysis—Forecasting Sylvia @ 2004-12-23 00:46盈利预测是我做这个模型时的一个瓶颈,其实大致怎么做是清楚的,但真正需要把三张表的每个科目一项一项在用excel中用公式体现出来的时候,才发觉预测是件多么不确定的事情啊!而我天生就是讨厌不 确定性的人,对于每一项都希望找到一个够有说服力的依据来支持我对未来的判断,但很多根本就是mission impossible,比如一些拍脑袋科目,你凭什么给它5%而不是10%的增长率?幸亏,我刚刚说的这些纯粹自己瞎算的科目往往是比较trivial的,而对于主营业务增长率之类我们则会谨慎得多,毕竟做盈利预测sales是最重要也是最根本的,很多预测方法压根就是拿其他科目同sales的历史比例关系来推算今后几年的数据的。对于做盈利预测的科学方法, 我也请教了不少同学,基本上都是一样的回答:先预测收入,比例法。可我需要一些更加具体的说法,但愿在今后可以慢慢获取。感觉做corporate finance还蛮有意思的。这里介 绍的可能叫做整体性预测法吧(a comprehensive approach),就是说对三张表同时预测,过于预测sales了,asset turnover 一般是预计保持当前水平,而working capital 和investment in plant跟企业的growth关系更为密切。从理论上来说,我们有可能直接预测现金流量表,但多数情况下,更普遍的做法是先把IS和BS预测完了,然后再得出。Sales/Earnings: 都遵循random walk,所以最好的分析点就是预测前一年的数据,t+1年的数据无非就是t年的数据再加上一个drift。研究数据表明:专家盈利预测的准确程度仅比纯粹的random walk forecast 高出22个百分点!太受打击了。ROE: 跟上面两个可有所不同啦。看到一个挺有意思的 说法—ROE “mean reverting”现象,头次听说,还用经济理论给解释了:The tendency of high ROEs to fall is a reflection of high profitability attracting competition. The tendency of low ROEs to rise reflects the mobility of capital away from unproductive ventures and toward more profitable ones. (美国公司的ROE一般在10-14)另外,我们知道ROE = Profit margin × Asset turnover× Adjusted leverage Asset turnover tends to be rather stable, in part because it is so much a function of the technology of an industry. Leverage also tends to be stable, simply because management policies on capital structure aren’t often changed. Profit margins stand out as the most variable component of ROE. 如此说来,ROE有很大变动的话,只能把原因归为profit margin啦,同时与ROE保持一致,profit margin也有一个回归正常水平的趋势。盈利预测通常首先从未来几年的销售预测开始,其次是计划为达到这个销售目标所需的资产,然后计划融资 方案 气瓶 现场处置方案 .pdf气瓶 现场处置方案 .doc见习基地管理方案.doc关于群访事件的化解方案建筑工地扬尘治理专项方案下载 ,接着就可以预测利润表和资产负债表,并对盈利、股利和其他一些关键的财务指标进行预测。下面就正式开始预测了: ****************************************************************** ************* Financial Forecasting基本步骤:(Financial Planning的着眼点是企业的CFO,而分析师的盈利预测着重点有所不同,先说估值里边需要用的盈利预测) (1)Sales Forecast (2)Expenses and Earnings Forecast (3)Forecast of IS (4)Forecast of BS (5)Forecast of CF (6)Sensitivity of Analysis 1] 销售收入的预测是盈利预测的起点,最简单的就是直接给出一个sales growth,负责一些的话就需要公司扩张形势进行分析,书中举了零售企业的例子,给我写报告提供了一个很好的思路,前面写600825的时候对于收入增长根本无从解决。For a large retail firm, a sales forecast would normally consider the prior year’s sales, increases due purely to expansion of the number of retail outlets, and “comparable store growth,” which captures growth in sales in already existing stores. 预测销售增长率需要考虑诸如以下因素: customer acceptance of new product lines, marketing plans, changes in pricing strategies, competitors’ behavior, and the expected state of the economy. 另外也 提到了,在历史数据极度缺乏的情况下,就通过市场渗透率来预测,这个应该不在当前考虑范围之内了。前面的方法是把企业视作一个整体增长,更细致的预测收入的方法是product-by-product。无论哪种,我们在预测sales growth 的时候,要注意跟行业水平进行比较,看企业是否超越这个水平,但也要避免太离谱的增长率。2] 费用最好是逐一进行预测。但有些费用是跟收入密切相关以因而可以根据其在收入中的占比给出(Percentage-of-Sales Approach),比如: COGS, SGA, R&D(这个相对来说不是跟当前收入关系非常密切,但也可以粗略用比例预测) 有了这个作为基础,就可以预测IS了。3] 利润表相对来说还是比较容易预测的,具体每个项目的预测依据如下: 销售收入——根据分析得出的增长率计算(这是最关键最根本的第一步!) 成本、经营费用、管理费用——用收入占比法预测 财务费用——driven by debt levels and interest rates,根据短期借款和长期借款分别计算 折旧——should be consistent with the firm’s depreciation policy Tax Provision——driven by pretax income and factors that have a permanent impact on tax payments (such as tax rates applicable to certain foreign subsidiaries) 利润表预测完成后,增加的留存收益也就出来了(NI-Div.),这部分增加代表了企业的经营投资增量(可内部解决的资金),这对后面决定融资与否非常重要,直接影响资产负债 表的预测。 另外,少数股东权益反映除母公司以外的其他投资者在子公司中的权益,表示小股东在子公司所有者权益中所拥有的份额。这个比较难预测,需要根据企业的盈利前景分析。4] 资产负债表的预测是最麻烦的,因为科目实在太多了,而且很多是跟收入无关,而是取决于企业的资本结构和股利政策的。下面逐一分析: 与Sales相关科目:operating working capital accounts and plant assets,而长期负债和普通股不会随销售额的增加而增加,而是有赖于以后的融资决策,所以,进行初步预测时,要假设这些账目保持不变。资产总量——根据销售收入与 资产的关系,可以预测所需资产总量,因为上面说了资产周转率Sales/Assets一般是保持不变的。另外,要提高销售,资产的各个项目也要相应增加。但应付、应收除了与收入保持一定比例增长来进行预测,更精细的做法可以进行账龄分析,存货也是(应付账款、存货周转天数与成本相关,应收账款周转天数与收入相关)。流动资产相对而言要容易把握一些,非流动资产的预测则更多是通过分析并且参照前一年的数据。 长期投资项目:长期股权投资和长期债权投资(待补充) 固定资产项目:固定资产原值的增加与capital expenditure 有关,累计折旧=原值+今年计提折旧(折旧需要先预测,反正后面CF表也需要用的),固定资产减值准备一般为0,在建工程视具体投资项目而定。 无形资产项目: Def.tax——用收入占比法预测。负债——只要企业的capital structure不变的话,其与收入的比基本上保持不变。(这部分因为牵涉到融资,所以更多是在作为企业内部的financial planning,以后再详细分析,这里暂且假设D/E保持一个常数了)所有者权益——股东权益= 年初的股东权益+ 新股发行+ 当年的留存收益增加额(这个在IS中给出: NI - Div)5] 现金流量表的预测采用间接法:有了上面3、4的基础,基本上就可以推导出IS了,这里补充一下Capital Expenditure的预测:CE are difficult to forecast without some guidance from management, in the absence of enough information, a good rule of thumb is to assume that the ratio of pant to sales will remain relatively stable, and that capital expenditures will be whatever amount is needed to maintain that ratio.也就是说,假设固定资产/资产的比例保持不变,据此来预测需要的在固定资产方面的投资。另外,折旧——固定资产原值*综合折旧率(企业的折旧政策 给出,或可通过历史数据分析得出)预测完了现金流量表,就可以得出自由现金流了,这里取 FCFF = NI + NCC + Int*(1-T) – FCInv - WCInv 至于贴现,下面一章专门讲DCF. 阅读全文(683) / 评论(5) / 给Sylvia留言/ 扔小纸条/ 文件夹: Business Valuation 收藏: QQ书签del.icio.us Business Valuation_4: Financial Analysis Sylvia @ 2004-12-23 00:44其重要性不必说啦,财务分析做精了,去哪里做都没问题了。两大部分:财务比列分析,现金流分析。Ratio Analysis 等CFA看到这块的时候再好好学习吧,现在重点不在此。Cash Flow Analysis 这段时间在做估值模型,所以现金流接触比较多,掌握三大点吧:1、CFO\CFI\CFF的分类,2、编制现金流量法的两种方法:直接法和间接法,3、自由现金流。说明一下:中国要求用直接法编制现金流量表,但附注中要有间接法的编制。而美国只有少数企业才会用直接法,而且会计准则规定使用直接法编制的那些企业同时也要准备间接法的现金流 量表。1) 企业的CFO是正的还是负的?负的话,是因为企业处于高速发展阶段,还是经营出现了问题,又或者他们在运营资本管理上存在问题? 2) 就CFO来看,企业短期的偿债能力如何? 3) 企业在持续性发展方面投入了多少资金?这些投入跟企业长期的经营战略是否吻合?是内部资金还是外部融资? 4) FCF有没?这种趋势能否保持?管理层对FCF是如何安排的? 5) 企业支付红利需要靠外部融资吗,该企业的股利政策是否稳定? 6) 企业采用哪种融资方式?这种方式是否适合企业整体的经营风险? 7) 净利润与CFO差别如何,原因?另外,利息费用和利息收入能否算在CFO中是个问题,严格来说,这两项跟经营活动没有太大联系(interest expense is a function of financial leverage, and interest income is derived from financial assets rather than operating assets),所以把它们从CFO中剔除也许能更准确地描述一个企业的经营活动现金流。阅读全文(643) / 评论/ 给Sylvia留言/ 扔小纸条/ 文件夹: Business Valuation 收藏: QQ书签del.icio.us Business Valuation_3: Accounting Analysis Sylvia @ 2004-12-23 00:41做完consultant,现在我们转行做audit:之所以要进行会计分析,是因为信息不对称导致一开始我们就处在了劣势;然而作为信息的接受者,我们不 可能天真的相信别人提供的那些冠冕堂皇的数据,所以进行会计分析主要有两点作用:一是通过对企业财务报表的阅读,看看这个公司采用的会计政策及其对未知事件的保守程度,从而对其会计处理的合理性形成一个初步的判断;二是我们可以通过分析还原(undo)一些会计上的歪曲来进一步提高报表的质量。In summary, the purpose of accounting analysis is to evaluate the degree to which a firm’s accounting captures the underlying business reality. Step 1: Identify key accounting policies 抓住影响该企业盈利最重 要的因素,以及和此因素相关的会计处理手段,由此来判断一个企业的会计风险。 Step 2: Assess accounting flexibility 有些事项会计准则是 有明确规定如何处理的,没有余地去在这些问题上面做手脚(比如R&D费用的处理),因为“原则化”了,所以这些相对不含水分的东西对于我们来说反倒没什么意义;所以我们需要关注的是那些比较灵活的事项,比如:折旧方法的选择、存货计价的选择(LIFO, FIFO or Average cost)。 Step 3: Evaluate accounting strategy 这块我们需要关注几点:这个企业的accounting strategy与整个行业相比如何,如果差别很大的化,是因为它特别的竞争策略还是其他什么原因?管理层是否具备歪曲盈利水平的动因?企业有没有 对其会计策略做了大的变动?企业目前采取的会计策略和 预测在过去几年是否客观还是有很大出入?企业有没有通 过资本运作方式来获得他们期望的一些会计数据? Step 4: Evaluate the quality of disclosure 看一个企业的透明度了,举个典型例子:如果企业的费用确认方式和行业通用方法不一样,他们会不会在报表脚注中给予解释。另外,企业与投资者之间的关系如何。 Step 5: Identify potential red flags 这个话题太大了,慢慢总结吧。Anyway, it’s best to use the red flag analysis as a starting point for further probing, not as an end point in itself. Step 6: Undo accounting distortions 利用现金流量表与附注阅读全文(663) / 评论/ 给Sylvia留言/ 扔小纸条/ 文件夹: Business Valuation 收藏: QQ书签del.icio.us NOPAT Sylvia @ 2004-12-21 12:13会计学得太糟糕了,以至于现在老被一些细节困扰。在近来这个重新学习DCF进行公司估值的过程中,我发现很多公式中的Tax很搞。计算FCF的公式虽然换汤不换药,但没有彻底搞清每个零部件之间关系的情况下,还是让人觉得挺烦的,看过最精简的一个是这样 的:FCF = NOPAT— Net Investment in operating assets, 不错不错,一个NOPAT一下合并了好多项。(参考中文第十章:企业价值评估,实体现金流量=息前税后利润-净投资)但我一直不很懂这么一个Net Operating Profit After Tax是如何被创造出来的,因为它并不是在利润表可以现成数据表现出来的,当然它在计算EVA时功不可没,现在似乎有所感悟:之所以要计算这个NOPAT,是因为在给公司估值时,我们关心的只是经营活动,所以税收我们也只考虑经营活动产生收益部分所需缴税,至于非经营活动产生税收跟企业持久的发展是没有必然联系的,所以不予考虑。因此便有了这么一个公式:NOPAT = Operating Profit - Taxes on Operating Profit,用EBIT来简单等价Operating Profit的话,就得到NOPAT = EBIT*(1-tax rate),这还不够准确,因为还有递延税款等在税上面的影响。所以精确的说法应该是:If OP=EBIT, NOPAT = EBIT*(1-t) + change in deferred taxes. 首先值得高兴的是,今天纠正了一个小错误,根本来说, Operating Income/Profit ≠ EBIT Operating income is sales minus COGS, SGA and depreciation. This sounds like EBIT but isn't always EBIT: companies often include nonoperating income in EBIT. 看一下间接计算EBIT的公式就清楚了: EBIT = 销售收入-成本-营业费用-管理费用+营业外收 支净额+投资净收益,而确切定义的OP是不包括最后两项的,这就是两者的差别所在。也就是说OP=EBIT- nonoperating income当然,我们常常可以看到把EBIT和OP近似处理的情形,但是定义上一定要搞清!另外,我也知道为什么一直处于混沌状态的原因了,因为西方报表自上而下读下来,看起来似乎OP就是EBIT嘛,但这只是简化了的报表,由此也得到一个教训:学东西还是一步到位,从最复杂的看起,这样起码不会犯以偏概全的错误了。GROSS SALES – (SALES) DISCOUNTS, RETURNS, AND ALLOWANCES = NET SALES – COST OF GOODS SOLD = GROSS PROFIT or "GROSS MARGIN" - OPERATING EXPENSES (Selling, Gen. & Adm.) [*excluding Dep. & Amort.] = EARNINGS BEFORE INTEREST, TAXES, DEP., & AMORT. (EBITDA) - DEPRECIATION & AMORTIZATION = NET OPERATING INCOME (NOI) or EARNINGS BEFORE INTEREST AND TAXES (EBIT) - INTEREST EXPENSE = EARNINGS BEFORE TAXES (EBT) - TAX EXPENSE = NET INCOME BEFORE PREFERRED DIVIDENDS or NET INCOME AFTER TAXES - PREFERRED DIVIDENDS = NET INCOME AVAILABLE TO COMMON STOCKHOLDERS (NIACS) 下面是微软的IS,这个就比较全面了:Total Revenue Cost of Revenue Gross Profit Operating Expenses Research and Development Selling General and Administrative Expense Non Recurring Other Operating Expenses Operating Income Total Other Income and Expenses Net EBIT Interest Expense Income Before Tax Income Tax Expense Equity Earnings or Loss Unconsolidated Subsidiary Minority Interest Net Income From Continuing Operations Nonrecurring Events Discontinued Operations Extraordinary Items Effect Of Accounting Changes Other Items Net Income Preferred Stock And Other Adjustments Net Income Applicable To Common Shares 区别就在蓝色标注地方啦,简单的IS中都没列出nonrecurring events,另外这里的nonrecurring events,似乎还不纯粹就是我们中国IS中的营业外收支,真是烦人啊... 搞清了OP和EBIT 的区别,接下来就要分析这个NOPAT与Tax之间的关系了,还是举个例子吧。假设条件: BS: Future income taxes今年比去年增加了325,也就是说change in deferred tax=325 IS: Taxes=(434) IS: Interest Expense=(675) IS: Foreign exchange gain=14 (nonoperating gain) OP=2056 Marginal tax rate=31.16% Effective tax rate = 31.1% 方法一:从OP开始计算, NOPAT= Operating income - taxes on operating income, 重点关注taxes on operating income如何一步一步计算的(1) 我们可以得出Actual Taxes Paid = Reported Taxes - Change in Def.Taxes = 434-325 =109 (2) We must take care of the taxes paid on the foreign exchange gain (nonoperating income) and the taxes saved due to the interest expense. 根据上面的假设条件, the taxes saved because of interest expense is 31.16%*675 = 210 the taxes it paid on its foreign exchange gain is 31.16% *14=4 (3) Taxes on operating income is then Actual Taxes + Taxes Saved because of Interest Expense - Taxes Paid on Nonoperating Income = 109 + 210 -14 = 315. (4) NOPAT = Operating income - taxes on Operating Income = 2056 - 315 = 1714 这是最基本的方法,完全从NOPAT的定义一步一步推导得出,关键需要注意的是这里的NOPAT不能只是简单的用OP*(1-tax rate),也就是2056*(1-31.16%)=1415,这样算的问题在于:this method understates company's actual NOPAT due to the taxes it deferred and other tax savings. 但如果把degferred taxes加上去的话,我们得到1415+325 = 1740,这就跟前面计算的NOPAT非常接近了,但要完全一致的话,需要用实际税率来计算,也就是说 NOPAT=Operating Income*(1-effective tax rate) + change in Def.tax,即 NOPAT = 2056 *(1-31.1%) + 325 = 1741, 就是方法一中一步一步推导来的结果。 这种方法计算的关键是先一步步把taxes on OP求出,然后从OP中减去即可,详细公式可以这样表示:NOPAT = OP - [(reported tax - change in Def.tax) + I*(1-t) - Nonoperating income*(1-t)] 方法二:从EBIT开始计算,很简单,利用OP = EBIT - nonoperating income这个关系代入方法一的简化公式可得:NOPAT = (EBIT - Nonoperating income) * (1-t) + change in Def.tax。方法三:从NI开始计算,也很简单,利用EBIT = NI/(1-t) + Interest Expense这个关系, 简化得到为:NOPAT=NI + change in Def.tax + I*(1-t) - Nonoperating income*(1-t). 总结:抓住一点,记住NOPAT 的最初定义,和近似处理NOPAT=OP(1-t)+change in Def.tax, 以及NOPAT、EBIT和NI之间的关系,然后视情况而定。基本就是这样啦,累死了。晚上回家继续研究,才发现原来几乎所有的教材中都是直接用EBIT(1-T)作为NOPAT,也就是息前税后利润来计算FCF,那岂不是把一些非经营活动产生收入也都算进来了?另外看到 J.O'Hanlon的讲义里边讲FCF也是从NOPAT出发计算,其中他特别引用了Mckinsey那本Valuation: Measuring and Nanaging the Value of Campanies中的一段话(看来经典教材就那么几本了,我是最近才知道这本书,当当还老缺货,那时可是毫无意识的):Free cash flow is equal to the after-tax operating earnings of the company, plus non-cash charges, less investment in operating working capital, property, plant and equipment and other assets. It does not incorporate any financing-related cash flows such as interest expense or dividends. THe tax should relect the tax relating to the operating entity and should not reflect the interest deduction.强调了息前的概念,因为这里估的是整个企业的价值,而不是股权价值,前者比后者多了一个 I*(1-T). 老头的公式是FCF=NOPAT - Increase in operating capital = NOPAT + DA - △WC - Capital Expenditure 顺便把CFA II中FCFF的四种方法一并给出吧:首先说明 NCC: includes non-cash items such as Depreciation and Def.tax FCInv : Fixed capital investment equals forecasted increase in the net PP&E account plus depreciation FCFF = NI + NCC + I*(1-T) - WCInv - FCInv FCFF = EBIT*(1-T) + Dep - WCInv - FCInv, 本来就有NI+I*(1-T) = EBIT*(1-T)成立 FCFF = EBITDA*(1-T) + Dep*T- WCInv - FCInv, 只要把EBIT=EBITDA-DA代如即可 FCFF = CFO - FCInv + I*(1-T) ****************************************************************** * FCFE = FCFF - I*(1-T) + net borrowing (net borrowing = long and short term new debt issues - long and short term debt repayments) FCFE = NI + NCC - WCInv - FCInv + net borrowing FCFE = CFO - FCInv + net borrowing 如此看来,再总结一下: 上面说了那么多关于NOPAT的东西,还是以CFA为准吧, 要不真正晕头了。这样,也就不用把Def.tax作为NOPAT 的一项,直接放置NCC里,如此分类似乎更为清晰;当然把Def.tax放进去的话,在税后这个概念上也许可以表述得更加准确一些。反正一个原则就是用纯经营活动产生收益operating profit来扣税,一般来说,也就是EBIT了。至于EBIT包含有非经营活动收益的情况,也就是说EBIT≠ OP的情形(这个在中国的利润表里倒是很容易理解),以后慢慢再琢磨吧。一句话,计算FCF从NOPAT开始,也就是从EBIT(1-T)开始。结束。