趋势交易者的利器-指标之王MACD的背离在外汇市场中运用浅谈

趋势交易者的利器-指标之王MACD的背离在外汇市场中运用浅谈 本文是对如何运用MACD指标来操作外汇市场中的趋势市场和震荡市场的初步探讨, 在思想形成的过程中，波浪理论---《市场行为的关键》和《证券混沌操作法——低风险获利指南》两本书对我起了引导性的作用。 对波浪理论,你只需要对5浪上升,3浪下跌,以及倾斜三角形有了解就可以了运用以下知识了. 在开始 分析 定性数据统计分析pdf销售业绩分析模板建筑结构震害分析销售进度分析表京东商城竞争战略分析 MACD指标之前,我想我们必须先从思想上认同以下两点,否则以下的研究没有意义. 1)趋势在一段时间内是可以把握的; 2)每个指标都有有效的时候,没有指标会始终有效.你的作用是搞清楚指标何时有效. 言归正传.先从MACD指标的公式开始: DIFF : EMA(CLOSE,SHORT) - EMA(CLOSE,LONG); DEA : EMA(DIFF,M); MACD : 3*(DIFF-DEA), COLORSTICK; 将该公式翻译成文字如下: 第一句: DIFF=当日离差=短期(12天)均线的平滑均价 - 长期(26天)均线的平滑均价;当均线以多头形式排列时，DIFF会出现上涨，否则将出现下跌。 第二句: DEA=平均离差=(9天)当日离差的平滑均价 第三句: MACD=柱状线= (当日离差-平均离差)X放大3倍 borrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) original and copy of valid identity documents, register field accounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copy of marital status, single station shall be provided, or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Department 2or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentaccounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copy of marital status, single station shall be provided, borrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) original and copy of valid identity documents, register field 在这个公式里,短期趋势指12天,长期趋势指26天.他们的每天的当日离差平滑均价连成白线DIFF,再将9天的当日离差平滑均价连成黄线DEA.当DIFF金叉DEA线时说明:第12天的平滑均价减去第26天的平滑均价的当日离差大于前9天的平滑离差,趋势转入多头行情.当DIFF时死叉DEA线时说明第12天的平滑均价减去第26天的平滑均价的当日离差小于前九天的平滑离差,趋势转如空头行情. 由于是用均线原理做出来的，那么多头排列与空头排列是确定多空趋势的根据.0轴是多空平衡线.DIFF和DEA在零轴上方是多头行情,在零轴下方是空头行情.在零轴附近是振荡盘整行情,也就是平衡市. 平衡市是为突破后的单边市做前期准备工作. MACD其实质是改良了的均线系统,经过多次平滑,淡化了单根K线的跳动,指示了当前趋势方向.其主要特点是稳健性。这种不过度灵敏的特征对短线而言有过于缓慢的特点，所以短线操作不在本讨论范围之内. 但正是如此MACD可以过滤掉市场的无序噪音，使其在周期较大，K线数目较多的行情中给出相对稳定的趋势指向。MACD对趋势明显的市场行情发出的信号可靠性较高,而对盘整市场发出的信号可靠性较低. 3y of marital status, single station shall be provided, or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentl and copy of valid identity documents, register field accounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copborrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) origina 4or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentaccounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copy of marital status, single station shall be provided, borrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) original and copy of valid identity documents, register field 5y of marital status, single station shall be provided, or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentl and copy of valid identity documents, register field accounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copborrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) origina MACD有两大用法: 一. 顺势操作---金叉/死叉战法 就是追涨杀跌,在多头市场时金叉买入,在空头市场时死叉卖出. 二. 逆市操作---顶底背离战法 就是逃顶抄底,在顶背离时卖空,在底背离时买多. 在一轮多头行情中,价格是创新高后还有新高,均线是完美的多头排列,光看价格和均线似乎上涨行情会没完没了. 然而,当市场情绪完全被当前趋势所感染的时候,市场往往已经运行在第五浪了.这时侯上涨空间有限,而下行空间无限. 而用MACD的头肩顶模式(右肩背离)-----------是一帖有效的清醒剂,往往可以提醒投机者行情随时有结束的可能性. 在介绍两大操作方法之前,我们先认识如何用MACD的头肩顶图形与驱动五浪互相验证 一. MACD头肩顶 = 驱动五浪 1)MACD头肩顶: 6or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentaccounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copy of marital status, single station shall be provided, borrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) original and copy of valid identity documents, register field 3)MACD复合头肩顶= 包含延长浪的五浪驱动. 看以下两张图: 7y of marital status, single station shall be provided, or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentl and copy of valid identity documents, register field accounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copborrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) origina 8or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentaccounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copy of marital status, single station shall be provided, borrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) original and copy of valid identity documents, register field 二.MACD顺势操作----如何识别有效的金叉/死叉 如果看见MACD发生金叉就买,死叉就卖的话,相信我已经没有机会写,而你也没机会看这篇文章了----早被市场消灭了. 机械的运用金叉/死叉信号来买卖还不如用投硬币来决定买卖会更省力些,而效果也不会差很多. 只有在符合一定 规则 编码规则下载淘宝规则下载天猫规则下载麻将竞赛规则pdf麻将竞赛规则pdf 之下采用MACD发出的金叉/死叉信号,才可以大大提高信号的成功率. MACD顺势操作是针对趋势明显的五浪行情，顺势追买/卖第三浪。不参与调整.当然在等待第三浪买卖信号出现的其间,也会漏掉很多好机会,但那些机会不属于该信号范围内,所以也不属于你我. 让我们只等待属于我们的那些机会! 1)MACD零轴上方(多头市场)-------只买第一个金叉;不买第二个金叉;不卖死叉 9y of marital status, single station shall be provided, or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentl and copy of valid identity documents, register field accounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copborrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) origina 零轴上方的第一个金叉往往是第三浪的开始.那么为什么不买第二个金叉呢? 因为后面的行情是无法确定的.第二个金叉一般都是第五浪的开始(三浪延长除外),而五浪相对复杂些,可能是衰竭浪,也可能是延长浪的.只买第一个金叉的思路就是买相对确定性,放弃不确定性. 另外还有一种情况,我们将三浪行情(ABC调整)错判断成五浪行情了: 10or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentaccounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copy of marital status, single station shall be provided, borrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) original and copy of valid identity documents, register field 结果判断错误,但因为只买第一个金叉,买点很好,即使看错,也可以赚些小钱. 11y of marital status, single station shall be provided, or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentl and copy of valid identity documents, register field accounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copborrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) origina 很多时候我们是看对行情但没赚钱或赔了钱,那是因为买点不对的原因.而掌握好了MACD的有效买点,可以做到看错也能赚小钱,看对能赚大钱. 2)MACD零轴下方(空头市场)-------只卖第一个死叉;不卖第二个死叉;不买金叉 12or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentaccounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copy of marital status, single station shall be provided, borrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) original and copy of valid identity documents, register field 3)零轴附近(平衡市场)-------追随多空突破方向 零轴附近是平衡市,盘整市,经常有假突破后又回来继续盘整的现象,表现在指标上就是刚发生死叉了接着又发生金叉,所以信号的有效性相对多头/空头市场要低. 但平衡打破后,往往会有一段较长的趋势走势. 13y of marital status, single station shall be provided, or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentl and copy of valid identity documents, register field accounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copborrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) origina 14or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentaccounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copy of marital status, single station shall be provided, borrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) original and copy of valid identity documents, register field 三. MACD逆市操作----利用背离来逃顶抄底 背离的定义:指标方向为正，加速度为负。 背离的含义:趋势在同方向延续，但强度已经减弱。 背离的现象:价格创新高,指标不创新高(顶背离);价格创新低,指标不创新低(底背离) 一)不同周期的背离 先从2004年底的美元走强开始看 日图，周图，月图上同时都出现了美元指数背离的特征。4小时图和1小时图数据我找不到，但如果有，也可以找到背离得特征。 让我们从不同周期的背离看起: 1) 2004.12.30 日线发生背离 2) 2005.01.14 周k线发生背离 15y of marital status, single station shall be provided, or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentl and copy of valid identity documents, register field accounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copborrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) origina 16or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentaccounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copy of marital status, single station shall be provided, borrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) original and copy of valid identity documents, register field 3) 2005.01.30 月K线发生背离 17y of marital status, single station shall be provided, or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentl and copy of valid identity documents, register field accounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copborrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) origina 如果在2004.12.30日线底背离是我们对趋势会反转还将信将疑的话,那么到了2005.1.14日周K线底背离我们就要对趋势反转半信半疑了,最后到了2005.01.31日月K线发生了底背离我们就要对趋势反转深信不疑了. 日图,周图,月图上先后发生了MACD底背离,这就是背离共振,标示了反转的到来. 那么是这些不同周期同时发生的背离决定了美元会由弱转强吗? ------ 错! 背离指标永远不会决定趋势, 决定趋势的只能是每根K线和K线组合本身,也就是说,只有每天的走势自己才会决定趋势. 永远是K线决定指标背离, 而背离只是反映了K线的状态-------美元指数已经弱不再弱会转强. 如果运用波浪理论来讲的话,2004.12.30美元指数是运行在第五大浪的第五中浪的第五小浪的第五微浪! 这些五浪同时运行完毕,将是一个大转折的开始. 或者换一个说法: 数浪低手或者对波浪了解仅仅是上升5浪,下跌3浪的人,一定已经被这么绕口的波浪打晕了. 上面讲的是大级别的反转,如果只有4小时和1小时图同时发生背离,那就是小级别的反转,在小时图表里,这样的反转可以一天或几天发生多次. 掌握好了背离的特点,可以使我们数浪低手或者不了解波浪理论的交易者也能逃顶抄底. 二) 背离的种类A)驱动背离 (B)调整背离 (A)驱动背离: 在驱动浪1/3/5浪上发生的背离,常规只会在第5浪时背离一次. 但如果驱动浪是延长浪,终结三角形,或者五浪走完后是不规则顶,这时往往会发生两次或者三次的背离。趋势越是强劲,背离次数越是多,但很少见四次或以上的背离. 驱动多次背离类型: 1)延长浪背离 2)终结三角形背离 3)不规则顶背离 18or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentaccounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copy of marital status, single station shall be provided, borrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) original and copy of valid identity documents, register field 19y of marital status, single station shall be provided, or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentl and copy of valid identity documents, register field accounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copborrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) origina 1)延长浪背离 第三/五大浪都可以发生延长,下面的例子是美元2005年的走势,第三浪走延长浪,目前正在运行的第五大浪中也正在走延长浪 此主题相关图片如下: 2)倾斜三角形背离 倾斜三角形其结构就是五浪,但它的特殊之处是4浪底可以进入1浪范围. 3)不规则顶背离 就是B浪超过第五浪也会导致二次背离,因为前面第五浪已经背离一次 20or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentaccounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copy of marital status, single station shall be provided, borrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) original and copy of valid identity documents, register field 21y of marital status, single station shall be provided, or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentl and copy of valid identity documents, register field accounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copborrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) origina 22or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentaccounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copy of marital status, single station shall be provided, borrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) original and copy of valid identity documents, register field B)调整背离 调整浪是一次背离,如果两次以上背离就说明趋势会发展成推动浪------那就不是调整浪了. 1)锯齿形调整背离 2005.07--2005.09的两个月的调整浪.属于四浪调整,浪形ABC,也发生了背离. 2) 平台形调整背离 23y of marital status, single station shall be provided, or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentl and copy of valid identity documents, register field accounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copborrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) origina 背离既可以用于逆势操作，也可以用于顺势操作( ,)驱动浪背离,逆势操作,逃顶抄底 因为它总是在等待背离的第五浪完成后的反转，是典型的逃顶抄底(在日线图和,小时图中，如果趋势强劲，往往会出现延长浪里的延长浪，在指标中就表现为背离后的再背离，导致失败率较高(只有在大周期如月K线和周K线中准确率才较高( 而等待月线,周线的背离需要相当长的间隔才会发生一次,,,应验了华尔街的一句名言,,,,,机会是等来的( 激动人心的时刻并不是时刻会有的～～～ ,)调整浪背离,顺势操作,高抛低吸 背离一次代表调整结束，原有趋势将继续(是最好的建仓点,加仓点(如果调整浪背离二次或更多，说明调整浪发展成为驱动浪了，就是趋势的改变，需要重新数浪了( 顺势操作，逆市操作，用乎之妙，存于一心( 24or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentaccounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copy of marital status, single station shall be provided, borrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) original and copy of valid identity documents, register field ,,,,(,,(,, ,,,守拙斋 外汇市场是个抢钱的市场，是个强盗市场。 我们是进入这个市场的小强盗， 甘心情愿的参加抢钱与被抢的游戏。 小强盗面临着 超大强盗; 特大强盗; 很大强盗; 大强盗; 中强盗; 以及， 很多和它一样大小的; 小强盗; 和无数比它更小的， 小小强盗; 小强盗 想抢其他大大小小的， 强盗的钱， 那些大大小小的强盗， 也不是省油的灯， 也想抢包括小强盗在内的， 每一个强盗的钱。 于是 消息战 心理战 资金战 无时不刻在这市场里 扰动着 小强盗那颗 脆弱的心 小强盗 终于找到了自己的武器， 发展出了自己的真理， 虽然这个所谓真理， 只是盲人摸象， 摸到的是象尾巴， 还有很多， 象鼻子， 象大腿， 25y of marital status, single station shall be provided, or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentl and copy of valid identity documents, register field accounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copborrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) origina 象耳朵， 都错过了， 但， 一根象尾巴， 已经够 小强盗生存在 这个强盗市场了。 ------------------------------------------------------ 没有人是根据市场交易的， 每个人交易的都是自己对市场的信念， 所以， 每个人要建立起自己对市场的信念。 -------------------------------------------------------- 在这里， 将我的一些信念贴出来， 是希望能对大家， 建立自己的信念系统， 有一定的帮助。 然而， 仅有技术分析是， 远远不够的， 还有仓位控制和， 资金管理， 这也是我正在探索的， 希望能和 大家共同进步～ 顺势加码 敬上 我一讲背离， 有些人就说， “哦， 我知道了， 是抓拐点的。” 其实， 心理就暗自说， 26or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentaccounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copy of marital status, single station shall be provided, borrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) original and copy of valid identity documents, register field “又一个逆市的莽夫～“ 背离如果用的好， 其实可以做到很好的 买回调， 卖反弹。 这是最大的顺势， 也是最难把握的， 我怎么知道回调/反弹到位了呢, -----背离可以告诉你～ 顺势背离其实就是: 回调到长期均线位置的底背离----做多 反弹到长期均线位置的顶背离----做空 27y of marital status, single station shall be provided, or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentl and copy of valid identity documents, register field accounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copborrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) origina 28or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentaccounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copy of marital status, single station shall be provided, borrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) original and copy of valid identity documents, register field 29y of marital status, single station shall be provided, or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentl and copy of valid identity documents, register field accounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copborrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) origina 30or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentaccounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copy of marital status, single station shall be provided, borrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) original and copy of valid identity documents, register field , 31y of marital status, single station shall be provided, or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentl and copy of valid identity documents, register field accounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copborrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) origina 下面是我的一些实战心得，有些贴子是实战时喊单的，可以在论坛理搜索到。 32or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentaccounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copy of marital status, single station shall be provided, borrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) original and copy of valid identity documents, register field 33y of marital status, single station shall be provided, or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentl and copy of valid identity documents, register field accounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copborrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) origina , 34or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentaccounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copy of marital status, single station shall be provided, borrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) original and copy of valid identity documents, register field , 一小时图背离四小时和一小时发生顺势背离共振是最佳的买卖点 35y of marital status, single station shall be provided, or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentl and copy of valid identity documents, register field accounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copborrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) origina 36or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentaccounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copy of marital status, single station shall be provided, borrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) original and copy of valid identity documents, register field , 37y of marital status, single station shall be provided, or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentl and copy of valid identity documents, register field accounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copborrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) origina , 38or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentaccounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copy of marital status, single station shall be provided, borrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) original and copy of valid identity documents, register field 这篇文章是以前写的， 这个数浪确实有误。 经典数浪里是没有3-3-5浪的。 但这篇文章的本意是 识别背离和， 背离的性质， 用于寻找入场点。 所以， 我更倾向于将所有可识别的浪 一律数成5浪上升和ABC调整， 并寻找背离规律， 对于复杂调整浪型， 一律放弃， 以节省精力。 毕竟， FROEST本人也说过， 知道激动人心的转折就要来临， 比知道该转折的准确数浪更重要。 更何况， 波浪理论是适用于， 呈现长期上升趋势的股市， 对于期货和外汇市场， 属于大周期震荡的走势， 波浪理论应该有些调整来适应， 如何调整， 是个很大的题目， 超出我个人的理解能力， 但我至少知道， 不能生搬硬抄。 你说的“中间的棒“应该是”柱状线“， 你可以再仔细看看帖子第一楼对MACD指标的解释: 柱状线= (当日离差-平均离差)X放大3倍 这句话的意思就是: 计算当前涨副与平均涨幅的差值 并将该差值放大3倍。 这样讲比较拗口， 还是看图说话 39y of marital status, single station shall be provided, or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentl and copy of valid identity documents, register field accounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copborrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) origina 40or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentaccounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copy of marital status, single station shall be provided, borrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) original and copy of valid identity documents, register field 柱线和0线交叉也是DIFF和DEA交叉的体现。 所以0线是这两个咚咚的表象 这句话再翻译一下: 柱线值为零是动能平衡的体现，DIFF和DEA交叉于0是价格平横的表现，所以0线是 动能和价格同时均衡的表现。 均横是暂时的，波动是永久的。 动能和价格的均衡处， 是新一轮方向起始点。 谢谢总结，这点我以前没有想到过， 欢迎脑力互相激荡。 对于指标我的看法是: 不在多，贵在精。 没有一个指标可以百发百中的， 深刻熟悉了解的指标最多三个就够用了， 太多指标反而会互相矛盾， 使人不知所谓。 要学会接受指标失效带来的损失， 这市场里没有百发百中的法宝， 说实话， 我只会用MACD一个指标， BB 是指 BOLLINGER BAND吗, 如果是， 我研究得不多， 没有 发言 中层任职表态发言幼儿园年会园长发言稿在政协会议上的发言在区委务虚会上的发言内部审计座谈会发言稿 权， 这里有好几位高手都是用BOLINGER的， 要向他们讨教。 KDJ这个指标 我还是可以发表一下意见的， KDJ是震荡指标， MACD是趋势指标， 这是大家都知道的， 可我发现， 他们两个指标实质上是统一的， 或者说， 是同一个指标的 不同表现形式。 如果他们使用相同的参数， 就有90%的相似度。 还是看图说话吧 41y of marital status, single station shall be provided, or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentl and copy of valid identity documents, register field accounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copborrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) origina 42or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentaccounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copy of marital status, single station shall be provided, borrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) original and copy of valid identity documents, register field 43y of marital status, single station shall be provided, or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentl and copy of valid identity documents, register field accounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copborrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) origina 当MACD使用KDJ的参数时，体现出KDJ的特征 当KDJ 使用MACD的参数时，体现出MACD的特征 反映了， 经典的指标， 尽管作者的MATCH_ word word文档格式规范word作业纸小票打印word模板word简历模板免费word简历 _1713559923415_0思路不同 出发点不同 KDJ是为短线而设计 MACD是为趋势而设计， 但好的指标 都可以反映出 相同的价格特征 最本质的价格， 可以用各种各样的 指标进行变形， 用短线形式表现， 就是KDJ 用趋势形式表现， 就是MACD 真可谓， 殊图同归， 条条大路通罗马。 关于”新空间“里的鳄鱼线，AO，AC 我还有自己的一些想法， 今天不早了， 后面在继续与大家探讨。 44or unmarried certificate issued by the Home Departmentaccounts should provide valid proof of residence; (C) original and copy of marital status, single station shall be provided, borrower's repayment and common people (spouse or others) original and copy of valid identity documents, register field