连平：流动性过紧将会导致经济结构进一步恶化-流动性-存款-连平_新浪财经_新浪网中英对照

连平：流动性过紧将会导致经济结构进一步恶化-流动性-存款-连平_新浪财经_新浪网中英对照 连平:流动性过紧将会导致经济结构进一步恶化|流动性|存款|连平_新浪财经_新浪网 News agency of Sai Dake of great wisdom A on Feburary 20 dispatch, collect from 2005 change up to now, the RMB appreciates to accumulative total of dollar exchange rate more than 35% . How to understand current RMB appreciates steadily and exchange rate forms a mechanism to reform pace relatively slow however; To current " finance is hot " and " economy is cold " contradictory, and 2014 annual fluidity, how should we hold again? Be aimed at these problems, special interview of great wisdom news agency chief economist makes the same score traffic bank repeatedly [small gain] , undertake be dissectioned deep at this point. Lian Ping: Traffic bank is presiding economist, professor, doctoral student adviser. Main research domain involves macroscopical economy to move to develop economy of center of banking of the strategy and administrative system, international and world to wait theoretically with finance of policy, foreign currency and exchange rate, off shore, commercial bank. Reporter: Collect change more than 9 years to come, inside course of study think progress is slow generally, the RMB still is in appreciate steadily continuously, you how the progress that look upon reforms, appreciate continuously is backside true what is the reason? Lian Ping: Collect change 9 years, should say to obtain a lot of result. Exchange rate level is in appreciate continuously condition, although have level sex devalue. Of course this is brought about by many sided element, but the most important is at 2 o'clock, the level sex that is capital flow changes, 2 it is Sino-US between huge trade is lopsided. From the point of capital flow, 2012-2013 year capital flow of the quarter produced very big change, this flows into pressure to have with the capital that lasted in the past differ apparently, some phase are put in the pressure that capital pours out of. But from the point of annual, still flow into with capital give priority to, overall have ascendant pressure to exchange rate, also have in certain level of course be down devalue pressure. We see the market go up for many times to have devalueing anticipation, even abroad NDF has appeared to did not arrive one year of half devalue anticipate, but did not devalue finally. We think, on one hand capital flow is total carry influent state. It is very important to still have a bit, be Sino-US commerce is lopsided. China present often project favourable balance should say 80-90% comes from at the United States, major to other and main country it is adverse balance of trade, in Sino-US between commerce exists continuously very big below lopsided circumstance, the RMB should devalue to compare difficulty really to the dollar, because do not have reason,devalue. The favourable balance with Chinese many respect, and American respect is much adverse balance of trade; If say this kind of circumstance falls, the RMB devalues to the dollar even, this meeting causes the sound of a lot of criticism on international economy forum, of course American the government and the public can have for certain very big rebound. Conversely this kind of lopsided state can force what the RMB holds pair of dollars appreciate, of course the United States still hopes the RMB has more substantially appreciate. Accordingly, we can be accomplished maintain little scope to appreciate at present, solid belong to not easy. To China, the RMB lasts it is adverse that unilateral appreciates, we also hope RMB exchange rate also can appear fluctuant, encounter in Chinese exit especially include burgeoning economy system inside pressure of very big competition falls inside global limits, if RMB can if level sex devalues, have certain positive effect to our exit or meeting. But current capital flow and trade flow condition, make the change that RMB exchange rate appears to be helpful for us completely, perhaps contain the change that we expect this kind, possibility is less. But the state with level two-way and fluctuant sex had development apparently. Also because of a kind of such states, exchange rate formed mechanism reform to also be encountered a few restrict. Because be in,at present this kind of circumstance falls, what if restrict exchange rate amplitude,put is wider, fluctuate for instance 3% even 5% , can appear short-term inside bigger appreciate pressure. Flow into pressure in view of current sth used to one's own advantage big, still have much favorable balance of trade at the same time, because this is possible occurrence RMB is short-term inside appear more appreciate substantially, again we are not willing to see this. Accordingly we see come two years recently, limitation of extent of wave motion of RMB exchange rate is to relaxing, but pace is slower, if say capital flow compares a balance, favorable balance of trade can have apparent cut word to American favorable balance of trade especially, magnify again a few fluctuant extent, go up objectively can smaller to our pressure, our country can bear. Unlocking amplitude further currently so is not equal opportunity. This also is recently since a paragraph of period, commercialize reform to be compared with interest rate, exchange rate forms the main reason with the relatively slow pace that the mechanism reforms. Of course, also have a kind of point of view, the hope determines our exchange rate according to total money, but this did not see is a plan that can put into effect truly. Because of the word that if you are,decide according to total money, appear to other very much currency when us when devalueing, whole RMB appears devalue, but we are right below this kind of circumstance American favourable balance still very big, but the RMB devalues to the dollar, this kind of contradiction is bad to handle. Of course, also can appear opposite situation, the RMB is actual and for instance effective 2013 exchange rate is in fact compare pair of dollars appreciate range is big still, because the dollar is opposite,other currency appeared considerably appreciate. Accordingly this kind of circumstance falls, if we continue to decide according to total money, also can appear likewise the state that the RMB appreciates considerably. So this kind of circumstance is more complex, discuss learnedly with move actually between still put in not little space. Accordingly, I think to need to create a condition, solve those who restrict RMB exchange rate above all the biggest question, it is Sino-US between of commerce lopsided. We can create a condition to resemble be opposite European Union and system of very much burgeoning economy are same, make Sino-US trade situation gradually incline to balance? We are imported morely from the United States, is not the export that reduces pair of United States, open the bottleneck that a lot of hi-tech products import, make our entrance gross can rapid accretion, reduce our favorable balance of trade, the effort that this needs each respects and cooperate, short-term in be afraid have apparent effect very hard, need the work that tries hard continuously. Close 3-4 year come, the government regards a main working goal as stimulative balance of payments evenly all the time, from to a lot of countries or the balance of the bilateral trade of the area is spent in light of, the effect is remarkable, still appeared even the adverse balance of trade of larger area. But should say to be improved somewhat to American state, the effect is not apparent, this need did not come each square field surfaces, it is commerce includes a property not just, need to last hard. Reporter: Next, can reform of RMB exchange rate be in what respect undertakes a breakthrough? Lian Ping: I think, below one phase may continue to try advance in two respects. One is to relax amplitude limitation, the amplitude that the market fluctuates everyday still can be unlocked appropriately, the level sex change that flows as capital appears bigger wave motion, the pressure that the RMB appreciates in fact is smoother still, did not appear substantially rise, because this is below this kind of circumstance, enlarging the extent of a few wave motion appropriately, fluctuate now for instance 1% , can arrive greatly 2% . The 2nd, increase foreign currency market further trade main body, introduce more orgnaizations to foreign currency market, make the supply demand relations of foreign currency market moves toward a balance morely, will ease the pressure of revaluation. Reporter: The developed country is like the exchange rate such as beautiful day Europe is decide by the market, and the much in these trading is to be not had trade truely of setting, spec dish give priority to, but our country trades in requirement foreign currency all the time must be premise with true commerce setting, that market is handed in cast nature hard active, does the price discover the function also is developed effectively hard? You how the difference of the China and foreign countries in exchange rate of decision of look upon market? Lian Ping: I feel this is the problem that commercializes degree discretion on one hand, it is the issue that capital and financial account open on the other hand. From the point of the developed country, capital and financial account are opened already basically, such often the demand that next trading basically is according to actual commerce both sides demand tries to react, so the element that capital flows, can try to react below capital and financial project, as a result of (developed country) open degree bigger, the demand that all sorts of trading was not necessary to do very much concealing, it is OK to these trading the channel that should take according to needing it does business. To China, of the capital of our country and financial account open degree overall not quite tall still, of course we also are not complete foreign currency control, just be in crucial domain, involve what invest to negotiable securities especially, these respect control are stricter still, in future, as capital and financial account progressively and open, these respects also can develop very quickly rise. Gray channel takes previously a few trade demand, also can turn to the clearer report below capital and financial account to come out, of course this is the process that opens gradually. Nevertheless, open also not be equal to all sorts of violating of compasses, trade phonily OK and wanton infestation, I feel foreign currency control or need try to superintend and be hit, these market economy countries in maturity, and in light of the country that capital and financial account open basically, its after the event is supervised and management also is very strict. At present market of our country foreign currency hands in cast not active have two reasons: It is to participate in trading market main body finite, demand has not get be reflectinged adequately; 2 it is exchange rate amplitude slants produce of the develop below small condition trades at inferior level. Reporter: You how look upon is current the RMB with so tall social financing dimensions and ceaseless tall innovation increases credit newly, namely " finance is hot " , but contrast of economic moving photograph is more fatigued and weak, "Economy is cold " , this kind of state that deviate from? Lian Ping: I think the situation is opposite this year last year for, it is to be improved somewhat actually. Financing dimensions incremental ratio is faster last year in January, but GDP increases rate of fast fall after a rise even more apparent than this year, and the situation is different this year. We see: Social financing dimensions followed to increased considerably than be being done not have actually last year January this year, however small increase, be being returned basically is smoother, the problem is the structure produced apparent change, credit increases to anticipate than the market should get more much, hand in of travel forecast in belonging to the market to anticipate, compare tall, 1.15 trillion, but in fact it still anticipates than us should tall, achieve 1.32 trillion. Whole structure has blame credit financing very big change, entrusting loan to grow for example still is faster, but fiducial, bond, because a variety of reason increasing ratio are slower, increment not as good as last year. From the point of credit, have so large-scale addition, can see this problem from two respects: It is from the point of demand, economy runs overall condition this year smooth, GDP has the possibility a bit first quarter fall after a rise, four quarters GDP grew 7.7% compared to the same period 2013, estimate this year first quarter 0.1-0.2 of fall after a rise percent, should saying to return is smoother, belong to on older rate seasonal fluctuant. From credit among many in in light of extended credit growth, demonstrative enterprise is relatively hopeful still to the view that long-term economy runs in future. 2 it is demand a bit very important mediumer, last year 11, the credit growth December is not much, but ask according to superintendency branch, the commercial bank must have been handled nonstandard the creditor's rights capital fund that spend, its are occupied 35% what taste than cannot exceeding bank conduct financial transactions to produce, perhaps cannot exceed 4% of total assets, in exceeding a part to must return to credit, go. By last year, actually a lot of commerce being had been being operated, after the operation, credit gross did not increase considerably, this causes demand of a lot of credit by keep long in stock, because the commercial bank affirms what want contented oneself first to superintend a requirement, consider the client's issue next again. Such, the demand of partial client is gone to by move this year January, credit demand is so more exuberant January have very big concern with defer of demand of the credit end last year. In the meantime, be not the problem of mark, partial commercial bank is in the end of the year may be done not have last year completely capable to press go in, pressed January this year go in, but we think this gross won't be very big, I want to won't exceed 200 billion yuan absolutely, the likelihood is 100 billion yuan are controlled. Such, can explain credit demand is in roughly January why so big. Look from supply, the commercial bank always hopes the beginning of the year can put some of credit more, have profit to annual gain. Look from deposit angle, in January the Central Bank [small gain] put in completely in the market, at the same time (add newly) foreign currency takes a money in January also won't little. Bank whole flowed in January sexual condition is pretty good, such bank has borrow put ability. If violent wind of extraordinary tension, market money rate raises liquidity, without doubt the commercial bank borrows put initiative to be able to be affected, he should be calculated cost, from the fund that gets on the market, prep above lends put interest rate, such business bank won't be become. Interest rate level did not appear to rise substantially in January, this adjust with the Central Bank neatly have very big concern. So, from supply and demand angle looks, appeared January credit gross relatively rose apparently last year, basically can receive an explanation. Look from this bit, although can have little scope fall after a rise,economy moves, but since in extended credit demand is so big, put in in January with respect to so much, there is one part to belong to an individual to mortgage loan among this of course, component of the long term loan in also be being belonged to. Fall in relatively strict superintendency at the same time, the commercial bank is based on risk pilot need, cast Xiang Ping stage and estate to also be met relatively careful. Extended credit increases to explain the enterprise has to future apparently quite in the enterprise relatively hopeful anticipate, this leaves than last year bureau come well. Reporter: You whether look into 2014 the fluidity of the market? Lian Ping: To 2014 fluidity, look from market situation, pressure is not little still. Have very big concern with market structure change on one hand, also follow superintendency system to matter on the other hand. From the market overall condition looks, there won't be apparent systole to capital and liquidity demand 2014, return can smooth growth, from January social financing dimensions and credit can see, demand is not little still; Look from supply, credit gross also can have a smooth growth 2014, we predict is 9.8 trillion to 10 trillion, have a reasonable growth than last year. Foreign currency takes money side, we think to be in 2014 also won't little, annual was in last year 2.7 trillion level, was 2012 5 times much, increase more apparent, basically be our country economy performance is smoother, did not anticipate like the market in that way GDP is added fast drop 7% even 7% have very big concern below. Of economy move smoothly, capital flow also can be compared smooth, basically give priority to in order to flow into. Since we think GDP can be maintained this year,be in 7.5% the left and right sides, if this judgement holds water, market capital flows into a state or won't have too about-face. On logic, exchange rate is minor appreciate, capital is flowed into give priority to, growth of the high speed in GDP is consistent. Below this kind of circumstance, market liquidity occupies what the paragraph can hold certain range to increase in foreign currency, exterior supply point of view looks inside, possible still. But we should see really the market has very big challenge: It is interest rate is commercialized in advancing a process, the product with the relevant higher income such as product of conduct financial transactions, the business outside the watch grows quickly, the deposit of the bank gets continuously pressure. I think, of all kinds deposit is final it is to be inside commercial bank system. It is client deposit together, the deposit that includes enterprise and individual deposits money, still having one chunk is deposit of a person of same business, its are occupied rise ceaselessly than be in. Outside the watch, after product of conduct financial transactions develops quickly, deposit money the client among them very big turn a person of same business into deposit together, but at present the commercial bank has put shift compared superintendency demand, admissive deposit is client deposit, a person of same business deposits money not plan into put borrow than. Namely the Qian Ke that a person of same business deposits money is used with taking, but when assessing, client deposit must want to achieve due level, loan ability is given off. Increase rate in deposit so apparent rein in, deposit of loan increasing ratio is fast, fluidity can slant close. And actually deposit is added fast in still have very big moisture content. How to understand? Put namely borrow comparing assessment is when check the number, lunar end, Ji Mo, year end, when superintendency requirement must be satisfied on the dot, ability extends loan. Drew 100 yuan deposit for example, ability puts 75 yuan loan. Be in when on the dot, the bank uses all sorts of methods, include product of conduct financial transactions, the capital that gets on the market pulls a bank to make deposit. We see, market money rate every appear to lunar end bigger wave motion. If add the interference of on a few other factors, whenever the wave motion of lunar end is met bigger, for example last year in June of end " Qian Huang " . If do not have this assessment, part of deposit of a person of same business also can serve as put borrow than deposit base, can stablize the situation that increase sharply of demand of level sex liquidity and violent wind of sex of phase of market money rate rise greatly. But from overall for, fluidity is not a problem. Current condition is concerned with the system, also follow the challenge on the market, be like Internet finance, and the product outside the watch that interest rate commercializes a lot of high income in advancing a process is right the appeal of deposit. The deposit index that sees at present, and M2 index has very big moisture content, because have the fund that comparative,be from a person of same business deposit moves come over, the dot when this can be formed to market money rate is pounded. If was put 2014,borrow optimize than assessing index to be not done, fluidity will be farther nervous. We think to be optimized appropriately, calculate bank savings of partial a person of same business in limits of alleged run-of-mill deposit for example, such denominator are big, to partial commercial bank, the likelihood does not need to make products of a lot of conduct financial transactions, pull deposit to work vigorously, because be in debt to had been used quite, of course partial commercial bank may be more radical, in indebted managing, asset may be put in a few problems, not very good match, still can have such demand. On the whole I think market liquidity situation still can be shown 2014 show slant tight situation, this has very big concern with monetary policy fundamental key, superintending a layer as a whole is to hope to continue to fall lever. What Chinese money puts a quantity to follow GDP is taller than comparing, the money changes rate taller, be afraid cannot resemble going again same, implement loose monetary policy, otherwise prospective problem can be accumulated ceaselessly, can lead to systematization banking venture sooner or later, be necessary to be tightened up appropriately continuously. Of course this process also has a risk, commercialize in interest rate especially in advancing a process, supply demand relations slants urgent meeting causes level of whole interest rate upgrade goes, statistical data made clear 2013, loan interest rate rises apparently. If fluidity impropriety, hypostatic economy also can support very great pressure. Move structural target right now, cannot finish not only, can make the structure continues to worsen instead, because only platform and estate can bear higher cost fund, the industry with the small gain such as other manufacturing industry cannot be managed effectively. So fluidity leads the word that the state develops further too closely with usury, go against tone structure. Be necessary to adjust fluidity to relatively reasonable level so, a challenge that this also was 2014.