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首页 朝鲜半岛重新开战? - FT中文网视频听写稿

朝鲜半岛重新开战? - FT中文网视频听写稿.doc

朝鲜半岛重新开战? - FT中文网视频听写稿

布丁张慧婷
2019-05-14 0人阅读 举报 0 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《朝鲜半岛重新开战? - FT中文网视频听写稿doc》,可适用于人文社科领域

ThereisbeenanescalationoftensionstodayontheKoreanpeninsulawiththeNorthKoreanmilitaryandtheSouthKoreanmilitarytriggeringartilleryblushesLastcount,wehavedeadandsomeinjuredWejustheardfromtheReutersthattheUNsecurityCouncilislikelytogatherforanemergencymeetinginthenextcoupleofdaysWithmehereisJamesBleeds,theFT’sdiplomaticeditorJames,verysimplequestion,areweseeingaresumptionofwarontheKoreanpeninsulaWell,thisiscertainlythemostseriousincidentthathappenedforawhilebecauseforthefirsttimeweareseeingbrushesbeingtradedfromlandYou’veseeskirmishesatseaOfcourse,ofcourseearlierthisyear,theNorthKoreasankaSouthKoreanshipwithalostofmorethanlivesButthisisamoreseriousonebecauseit’satlanditalsocomeofcourse,adayafterNorthKoreaeffectivelyrevealedthatithasanuraniumenrichmentfacilitywhichissignificantlyspeedingupitsprocesstocreatenuclearweaponSoenormousroundoftensionisnowdevelopingclearlybetweenNorthandSouthWhatdoyouthinkisthereactionsthatwegonnaseefromtheSouthKoreanshereWell,the()ofthingsinthepast,theNorthKoreadoesamajorkindofincursionandtheSouthshowsrestraintOneofthemainreasonsIthinkwhytheSouthdoesshowrestraintisthatitknowsalloutthewarfairbetweenthetwosidesbeingabsolutelycatastropheFromtheNorthKoreanpointofview,theyknow,iftheyknowanything,theycan’tpossiblywinakindconventionalwaragainsttheSouthTheyhaveaboutamillionunderarmsbutit’snotastrongarmy,doesn’thavestrongaccesstothingslikefuelandsuppliesItdoesn’thaveconventionalforcesTheSouthwouldwineasilyTheSouthhasthousandUStroopsTheproblemfortheSouthisthatanyvictoryagainsttheNorthwouldbeacompletely()victorySotheSouthKoreancapitalisonlykilometersfromthedemilitarizedzonethatseparatesNorthandSouthSotheNorthwouldtheveryleastbeabletodoamassiveartilaryagainsttheSeoulpopulationTheestimatesarethatabouthalfamillionpeoplewoulddieinalloutwaragainstNorthandSouthSotheideaisthattherecouldactuallybeingaalloutwarwouldbeprettymuchunthinkableWhatistheNorthKoreauptohereWhatisitcausedthisIthinktherearetwothingsthatpeoplethinkarehappening,thefirstisobviouslyasuccessiontakingplace,fromKimJiongritoKimjoingwoo,intheNorth,hissonAndwhatisbeingdoneisakindofshowofastrengththathappeningbothonthenuclearsideandtheonconventionalmilitarysidetosortofunderpinthatsuccessionwithotherspeoplepossiblyinNorthKoreanotwantthattohappenTheotherthingthattheNorthKoreaprobablywantingtodoistoshowtheUSandChinathatitisstillabigplayandstilldolotsofthingsthattheydon’tlikeTheywanttoleadtowardstheresumptionofthepartytalkswhichwereabandonedAprillastyearWhattheyeffectivelywantistoendsanctions,moreeconomicsupportbutabilitytoretainpartsoftheirnuclearprogramsThisistotrytounderpinthatpositionYoumentionedChinaHowdoesChina’sreactistoappealcalmtodaysofarButwhethertheygofromhereChinaisclearlyabigplayonthisOntheonehand,ChinaisbyfarandwaytheNorthKorea’sclosestsupportthathaveitshistoricallinkedbacktotheregionalKoreanwarintheswhenChinasupportedtheNorthItalsohasabigtraderelationshipChinaisveryconcernedinparticularabouttheNorthregimeisnotstabilizedIthasamilesofborersItdoesn’twanttoseeahugerefugeecrisisdevelopingiftheNorthwouldcollapseSoithasbeenverysupportivetotheKimJiongriregimeNevertheless,ChinadoesnotwanttoseeunplannedanddifficultescalationsofthatkindtheNorthisdoingAndsoitmayreactionverybadlyandtoughlywhattheNorthisdoingJames,justbriefly,theUSpotion,howisUSgonnareactTheUS’sfundamentalconcernisnuclearproliferationUptillnow,ithasbeenveryfirm,notwantingtodealwithNorthKorea,notwantingtheresumptionofthepartytalksItwantsthefullestpossibleverificationofwhattheNorthKoreaisdoingButultimately,theballisontheChina’scourtWhatChinadoes,theUNasyoumentionedatthestart,UNSecurityCouncil()responseiswillbeabsolutelycriticalindeterminingwhetherthisescalatesornotJustquicklyonIran,anothersocalledroguenuclearstateWegettheregularreportoftheIAEAnuclearinspectorstodayWhat’sthatgonnashowusTheadvancebriefreportsuggeststhatIranhashadquiteanumberofdifficultieswithitsnuclearprogramAndsuggestion,thisisspeculationisthatthestuxnetviruswhichpeoplehavebeentalkingaboutearlierthisyearakindofcyberwarfairwormmayhavedonesomedamageIfyoulike,thecontrastyougottodayisthattheNorthKoreacrisisisreallydevelopingandlotsofconcernsabouttheiruraniumenrichmentplansConversely,IranseemstobehavingmoreandmoreproblemsdevelopingitsnuclearfacilitiesThequestioniswhetherweactuallyseea()towardsevenmoreseriousproblemsforIran

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