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首页 零和游戏(zero-sum game)

零和游戏(zero-sum game).doc

零和游戏(zero-sum game)

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2018-10-12 0人阅读 举报 0 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《零和游戏(zero-sum game)doc》,可适用于社会民生领域

零和游戏(zerosumgame)零和游戏(zerosumgame)ZerosumgameprinciplemedicalaircraftZerosumgamemeansthatinagame,theplayerlosesorwins,onewinsandtheotherlosesThetotalscoreofthegameisalwayszeroCatalogBriefintroductionofprincipleoriginNonzerosumgameDefinepokerandzerosumgamesPokerandthegameDealandzerosumgameTradeandgameBriefintroductionofprincipleoriginNonzerosumgameDefinepokerandzerosumgamesPokerandthegameDealandzerosumgameTradeandgameDevelopmentprincipleintroductionZerosumgameprinciplewaswidelywatched,becausepeoplearefoundinallaspectsofsocietycanbefoundwiththe"zerosumgame"similartothesituation,thewinnerofthegloryaftertheoftenhiddenbitternessoffailureandbitternessbutintwentiethCenturythehumanintheaftermathofthetwoWorldWar,therapidgrowthoftheeconomy,theprogressofscienceandtechnology,globalizationandtheincreasinglyseriousenvironmentalpollution,"zerosumgame"conceptisgraduallybeingreplacedbytheconceptof"winwin"Peoplebegantorealize"selfish"doesnothavetobebuiltonthebasisof"dog"Througheffectivecollaboration,happyendingsarepossibleButfrom"zerosumgame"to"winwin",askedthepartiestohavethespiritofsincerecooperationandcourage,don'tgetsmartincooperation,donotalwayswanttoshareotherpeople'scheap,tocomplywiththerulesofthegame,ora"winwin"situationisunlikelytooccur,andultimatelylosetheircooperationisalsooriginThezerosumgameprinciplecomesfromgametheoryThetwoplayers,inmostcases,thereisalwaysawin,awinlose,ifwetakethecalculationtogetpoints,whilethefailureof,theprincipleofzerosumgamefromgametheoryThen,thesumofthetwopointsis:()=GametheoryinEnglishcalledgametheory,literaltranslationis"gametheory""Ifaplayerlosesorwins,onesidewins,andtheotherloses,andthetotalscoreofthegameisalwayszeroThe"zerosumgame"ispopular,becausepeoplearefoundinallaspectsofthesocietyandthe"zerosumgame"similarsituation,Victor'sgloryisoftenhiddenbehindthebitternessoffailureandbitternessNonzerosumgameButsincetwentiethCentury,theconceptof"zerosumgame"hasbeengraduallyreplacedbythe"zerosumgame",thatis,"negative"or"positivesum""Negativeandgame"meansthatalthoughonesidewins,butpaysaheavyprice,thelossoutweighsthegain,andthereisnowinnerThewinnergainsmorethantheloser,ornoloser,andtheresultis"winwin"or"winwin",called"positive"and"win""Forexample,investmentinstocksandbonds,pricefluctuationsinpricesofinvestorsontheonehandinstocksorbondsorbenefitfromtheannualdividendsoflistedcompanies,investorswithmoneytooperate,makingprofits,taxes,increaseemploymentandsoon,orbothaspectscanbenefitfromInthecompetitivesociety,peoplebegantorealizethe"egoism"doesnothavetobebuiltonthebasisof"dog"EffectivecooperationleadstohappyendingsFromthe"zerosum"to"positive",requiringthepartiestohavethespiritofsincerecooperationandcourage,abidebytherulesofthegame,notsmart,donotthinkforotherpeople'scheap,otherwise,a"winwin"situationwillnotsuffer,andultimatelytheirownDefinitionHerearesomeimportantideasthatyouneedtoknowbeforeyouknowwhetherthedealiszeroorzeroThiscategorydependsonhowbroadourdefinitionofplayer'sprofitsandlossesisItsownclassificationisnotimportanttous,butitisimportantforthepromoterTointroducethedevelopmentofthisconcept,let'sdiscusspokergamesfirst,andthenwe'llcutin,becausepokerisagoodmetaphorformanipulationPokerandzerosumgamesPokercanbeplayedbetweenfriends,inpokerclubs,orintournamentsLet'sexplorethesimilaritiesanddifferencesbetweenthesegamesGenerallyspeaking,playingpokerbetweenfriendsisatypicalzerosumgameNomatterwhowins,therewillbeotherswhowillloseThepokerclubdoesn'tplayverymuchbecausetheclubwillchargeafixedrateforthetotalbet,say,whichwillleadtoanegativegameThatis,thetotalamountofwinsandlossesislessthanzero(iftheclub'spumpingperformanceiszero),andtheplayersassemblelossestotheclubIfwedefinetheclubasaspecialplayerofthegame,thenthegamebecomesazerosumgameInotherwords,wecalculatethesumofwinnerswinandloserslosethenetclubpumpedinto,itbecomesazerosumgame,afterdeductingthepayoftheclubpumpedinto,nomatterwhowins,theotherpersonisaloserThepokergameinthetournamentissponsoredbythesponsor,Therefore,itisapositiveandagame(ifitsbonusexceedstheentryfeeofallparticipants),andifwecalculatethenetvalueofthetotalaward,thenpokerisstillazerosumgameAfterwinningtheprize,whoeverwins,theothersloseNomatterwhattheoccasiontoplaypoker,thefundamentalcharacteristicsofthegame,itisazerosumgame(assumingitisabenchmark),tothispointofview,thesethreetypesarethesame,gameplayerwhooftendon'tcareaboutitsbenchmarkandwhy,continuetoplaythesamestrategyThereasonpeopleplaypokerdependsonthebaseline,regardlessofthetechnicaldifference,thatis,mostoftheplayersinthetournamentarewinners,andmostoftheplayersintheclubarelosersPokerandthegameSofar,wehavedefinedthewinnersandlosersinpokergamblingonlybythecontributionofmoneyToexplainwhyplayersintheclubloseonaverage,thedefinitionistoonarrowOurdefinitioncannotexplainwhyrationalgameplayerplayingrelativelywellinthepokergame,YuanJiaskillspooronlyfocusonwinningorlosingmoney,unliketheskillsofthegameplayerfocusesonhowtheylose,obviouslypeopleplaypokerisalotofreasonsbasedonnotonlytoexpectedspeculativeprofitswhileplayingWeconsiderfourreasonswhypeopleplaypokerThefirsttworeasonscontainexternalinterestsThethirdreasoncontainsunhelpfulandirrationalactions,andthefourthoneisexpectedtorunThefirstandprobablythemostimportantthingisthatmanypeopleplaypokerbecausetheysimplywanttoplay(orlearnhowtoplay)Theseplayersarewillingtoplay,eveniftheyareexpectedtoloseatthestart,andtheexternalbenefitsofplaycanexplainwhyfriendsoftenplaytogetherevenwhentheylosetobetterskilledpeoplePokerisagameofplaywhentheplayergainssuchastretchfrompokerSecond,someplayersplaypokerbecausetheymaynothavelearnedhowtoplay,orarestillunabletobecomeabetterplayertomakemoneythroughpokerThesenovicegamersmaylackinformationorhavelimitedabilities,buttheywillneverbeunreasonableIftheyknewtheycouldn'tearnmoneybyplayingcards,theywouldgiveupItisexpensivetolearnwhethertomakemoneyfrompoker,avaluableexternalbenefitthatcanbegainedbyplayingcardsNoviceplayersareoftencalledfools,andfoolsareborneveryminute"However,untiltheylearnandevaluatethislesson,thesepeoplearenotstupidThird,someplayersareunabletolearnoracceptthattheycannotearnmoneybyplayingcardsThesmallprofitsthattheseplayershavebeenpursuinghaveneverbeenrealizedTheyareoftenirrationalandmaybeabitemotionalTheseplayersarereallystupidbecausetheyrefusetolearnwhattheyshouldlearn,orinsistonpayingthehighestpricetolearnsomeuselesswaysFinally,someplayersplaypokerbecausetheyarereallyexperts,andthesehighlyskilledplayersalwayswinthemoneyofotherplayersTheyareabletowinmorethantheyneedTheseexpensesincludethefeespaidtotheclub,andthesalariestheyreceiveiftheydootherjobs,aswellasthecostsofmaintainingprofessionalismandcompetitivenessTheseplayersbenefit(perhapsfromclubs)fromplayerswhoarewillingtolosetheirmoneytotheirlessskilledplayersThesepeoplearecalled"doctor",becausetheypreyontheweakgameplayerWeakanddoctorusuallyavoidgameplayerwiththeBureau,inordertoavoidbeingrecognized,thedoctoralwayschangingplacetohuntIfthedoctorcan'tfindprey,orbecausetheirpreysuccessfullyavoidthem,orbecausetheirpreywasabandoned,thedoctorisalsoverydifficulttosurviveDealandzerosumgameLikepoker,theclassificationoftransactionscanbedividedintozerosumgames,negativegames,orpositivegames,dependingentirelyonhowwedefineprofitsandlossesIfwemeasuretradingonlyonprofitandloss,thenitmustbeazerosumgameForexample,assumetheoperatingprofitandlossisdefinedasthecorrespondingbasicvalue(basically,soitcannotbeobserved)whenbuyersandsellersinthetransaction,theywillsetaprice,ifthepriceishigherthanthebasicvalue,thesellertothebuyer'sinterestexpensesWithoutanyothertrader'slossesinthemarket,notraderwillmakeaprofitSincewecannotreliablyobservethebasicvalue,thatis,tradersarenotsureoftheirprofitsandlosses,theuncertaintyintheirtradingtimewillnotchangethenatureofthezerosumgameIfthebenchmarkusedisthesametoboththebuyerandtheseller,ThenthebenchmarkusedtodefineprofitandlossdoesnotaffectthenatureofzerosumgamesThisbenchmarkdetermineshowwecanexplainprofitsandlossesWhenweusethebasicvalueasthebenchmark,weexplainthedifferencebetweenpriceandvalueasthebasicoperatingprofitorloss,unfortunately,intheabsenceofthedefinitionandestimationofthebasicvaluebeforetheprofitandlosscannotbeestimatedTradersusethebenchmarkobtainedwithrespecttotheprevailingmarketinformationtodeterminethedifferencebetweentransactionpricesandtransactioncostsSomepeopleusetheaverageorderwhenthepurchasepriceandsalepricetoestimatethevalueofportfolioconstructioncostInaddition,somepeopleusevolumeweightedaveragepricestoestimatetransactioncostsothersusetheclosingpricedirectlyThesemethodsyielddifferenttransactioncostestimatesbecauseofthedifferentunderlyingvaluesoftheassumptionsTheseestimatesaredefinedinthezerosumgamebecausethisbenchmarkisquitecommonforbothbuyersandsellersWhenthebuyerwantstomakeaprofit,thepricemustrise,whichisthelossofthepersonwhosellsatalowprice,andviceversaThebasicoperatingprofitlossestimationbasedonthepurposeofthecurrentmarketinformationasabenchmarkisalittleroughestimateThemarketappearsonthesameday,high,low,close,andtheaveragepriceofthedayorthepriceoftheweek,tendtohaveerrors,soastooverestimateorunderestimatethebasicvaluePerformanceevaluationisbasedontheseestimatesandisthereforeusedprimarilytointerpretestimatesoftransactioncostsThesemethodsdonotprovethatlongtermperformanceisachievedbasedonabetterportfolioselectioncapabilityTraders'stockoptionsareupforthenextyearandaregoodtraders,andestimatesofthetransactioncostsshowatmostthatthetradercanperformhistradesatalowercostTheportfolioperformanceevaluationmethodcomparesthereturnoftheportfoliowithrespecttothemarketindexreturnortheriskadjustedindexexpectedreturn(thetotalperformanceisthesumofexecutiveperformanceandstockperformance)Ifthemarketportfolioreturnisthebasisofthereturnrate,thentheoperationisazerosumgameWinnersbeatmarketaveragereturnswhilelosersarebelowmarketaveragereturnsIftherewardbaseistheindexoftheriskadjustedexpectedreturn,thentheoperationwillbepositiveandnegativeThegameisbasedonwhethertheaveragereturnonsecuritiesishigherorlowerthanexpectedduringapredeterminedperiodSincetheaveragereturnonsecuritiesshouldbeequaltotheirexpectedreturn,theoperationisdefinitelyazerosumgamebasedontheexpectedrateofreturnDuringanygivenperiod,theoperationcanbechangedintoazerosumgamebyadjustingtheexpectedrewardbasistoreflecttheunanticipatedcomponentoftherealizedsecurityreturnsAsaresult,theremunerationbenchmarkistherateofreturnonthemarketportfolioWhenweusethemarketportfolioreturnasageneralbenchmarkforevaluatingtraders'performance,weestimatetheunderlyingvalueatthebeginningandendofthemarketThemeasurementofprofitsandlossesisrelatedtomarketbenchmarksandthereforeonlyestimatesthebasicoperatingprofitandlossoftheabovedefinitionsTheseestimatesincludenoisegeneratedduringpredictableperiodsfrompredictableandunexpectedchangesinbasicvaluesTheexpectedchangeintheunderlyingvalueistheexpectedrateofreturnItincludesrealinterestrates,risks,liquidity,andanyinterestorcostofholdingsecuritiesUnexpectedchangesareunexpectedComputingoperationalperformanceincludesbothsystematicandstochasticcomponentssystematiccomponentsmakeportfolioperformancebeevaluatedandstochasticcomponentsmakeitdifficulttoinfertechnicalcomponentsfromperformanceInthisview,thedefinitionofoperatingprofitandlossisbasedonageneralbenchmarkappliedtobothbuyersandsellersAcommonbasicvaluebenchmarkproducesazerosumgameAgamecreatedbyageneralrewardbasecaneasilybeadjustedtobecomeazerosumgameInanycase,noothertraderwilllosemoney,andnotraderwillmakeaprofitBasedonthisargument,tradingisazerosumgameTradeandgameRationaltradersdonotplaypurezerosumgamesthatcanonlybeoperatedprofitsIfalltradersarethesameandallexpectedreturnsarezero,noonewillbenefitfromthetransactionIfsometradersarebetterthanothers,thebettertradersarewillingtotrade,butthosewithpoorskillsarereluctanttodoso,andnooneelsetradesToexplainwhyrationaltraderswanttotrade,firstofall,wemustfirstrecognizethatsomepeoplearetradingnotjustforexpectedpayPeopletradeinordertohedge,totransfermoney,toexchangeproperty,toearnabsolutepay,tolearnwhethertheycanmakemoneybyoperating,orgetthepleasureofgamblingTheseexternalbenefitsmaketradingapositivegameIftheexternalbenefitsofthesetransactionsaregoodenough,Eveniftradersbelievetheywilllose,theywillstilltradeTechnicallygoodtraderscanprofitfromtraderswhoarelessskilled,butaretradedonthebasisofexternalinterestsMarketpriceseffectivelyintegrateinformation,whilebettertraderstradeforinformationbasedontheinformationtheyreceiveIfoperatingprofitexceedsthecostofobtaininginformation,thisbehaviorisprofitableIfnoonecomesintotradingonthebasisofexternalinterests,technicallyskilledtraderscannotmakeaprofitbytradingTheywillgiveuptheirresearchandthengiveupthedeal,andtheefficiencyofthepricewillbegoneThepriceisonthebasisofthetechnicalefficiencyofgoodtradersandthosewhoarewillingtotradeorisnotrationalloserscreatedtechnology,goodtradersmakethepriceefficiency,whilethoseofthelosercantheystudyhardandpayBeforethearticlestarts,seeajokefirst:"Therearetwoeconomistswalkingonthestreetandtalkingabouttheeconomy,"aeconomistsawapileofdogfecesYouatethispileofshit,andIgaveyoumillionbucksBeconomistshesitatedforamoment,butstillcouldnotwithstandthetemptationtoeatthatshit,ofcourse,asacondition,theeconomistgavehimmilliondollarslater,Beconomistsalsosawapileofshit,aeconomistsaid:youeatthisshit,IalsogiveyoumilliondollarsAeconomisthesitatedforamoment,butstillcouldnotstandthetemptationtoeatthepileofshit,ofcourse,asacondition,thesecondeconomistgavehimamillionbackThestoryisnotoveryetAswewalkedalong,thesecondeconomistsuddenlycametoGod,andsaid,"no,wedon'tearnanymoney,butweatetwopairsofshit"Amanchangedhismind,thoughtforamomentandsaid,"butwecreatedmillionGNP"!DidyouseeanythingThezerosumgameprinciplecomesfromgametheoryThetwoplayers,inmostcases,thereisalwaysawin,awinlose,ifwetakethecalculationtogetpointsandlosepoints,thenthetwoscoreisthesumof()=GametheoryinEnglishcalledgametheory,literaltranslationis"gametheory""Ifaplayerlosesorwins,onesidewins,andtheotherloses,andthetotalscoreofthegameisalwayszeroThe"zerosumgame"ispopular,becausepeoplearefoundinallaspectsofthesocietyandthe"zerosumgame"similarsituation,Victor'sgloryisoftenhiddenbehindthebitternessoffailureandbitternessButsincetwentiethCentury,theconceptof"zerosumgame"hasbeengraduallyreplacedbythe"zerosumgame",thatis,"negative"or"positivesum""Negativeandgame"meansthatalthoughonesidewins,butpaysaheavyprice,thelossoutweighsthegain,andthereisnowinnerThewinnergainsmorethantheloser,ornoloser,andtheresultis"winwin"or"winwin",called"positive"and"win""Forexample,investmentinstocksandbonds,pricefluctuationsinpricesofinvestorsontheonehandinstocksorbondsorbenefitfromtheannualdividendsoflistedcompanies,investorswithmoneytooperate,makingprofits,taxes,increaseemploymentandsoon,orbothaspectscanbenefitfromInthecompetitivesociety,peoplebegantorealizethe"egoism"doesnothavetobebuiltonthebasisof"dog"EffectivecooperationleadstohappyendingsFromthe"zerosum"to"positive",requiringthepartiestohavethespiritofsincerecooperationandcourage,abidebytherulesofthegame,notsmart,donotthinkforotherpeople'scheap,otherwise,a"winwin"situationwillnotsuffer,andultimatelytheirownZerosumgamemeansthatinagame,theplayerlosesorwins,theotherwinsandtheotherlosesThetotalscoreofthegameisalwayszeroThe"zerosumgame"principleispopular,becausepeoplearefoundinallaspectsofsocietycanbefoundwiththe"zerosumgame"similarsituation,behindthewinner'sgloryisoftenhiddenbitternessoffailureandbitternessButintwentiethCenturymankindexperiencedtwoworldwars,therapidgrowthoftheeconomy,theprogressofscienceandtechnology,globalizationandtheincreasinglyseriousenvironmentalpollution,"zerosumgame"conceptisgraduallybeingreplacedbytheconceptof"winwin"Peoplebegantorealize"selfish"doesnothavetobebuiltonthebasisof"dog"Througheffectivecooperation,happyendingsarepossibleButfrom"zerosumgame"to"winwin",thepartiesneedtohavethecourageandspiritofsincerecooperation,incooperationtocomplywiththerulesofthegame,getsmart,alwayswanttoshareotherpeople'scheap,oreventuallyloseyourselfFinally,giveeveryoneaquestion:Isthereazerosumgameintheglobaleconomy

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