Roland Berger2014年汽车行业发展前瞻

Roland Berger2014年汽车行业发展前瞻 A AU UTO TOM MOT OTIV IVE E Insights AUTOMOTIVE COMPETENCE CENTER CLIENT MAGAZINE Issue 01.2014 INTER INTERVIEW VIEW LUCA DE MEO LUCA DE MEO The Audi board The Audi board member unveils member unveils his thoughts about his thoughts about future sales future sales MARKETING MARKETING KNO KNOW Y W YOUR OUR CUST CUSTOMERS OMERS How to build How to build better cars better cars BRIC BRIC FLEET SALES FLEET SALES Promising but Promising but individual markets individual markets SPECIAL SUBJECT THE AUTOMOTIVE YEAR 2014 There's a lot to do! We take a closer look at the opportunities and challenges for our industry NEW! NEW! NO NOW A W AV VAILABLE AILABLE FOR ANDR FOR ANDROID OID, , T TOO OO FOR DET FOR DETAILS AILS PLEASE SEE PLEASE SEE P PAGE 31 AGE 31Dear Reader, Welcome to 2014! Before a hopefully thrilling new automotive year is gathering pace, it's time to summarize the highlights of 2013 as well as to take an outlook at the most important trends in this new Automotive Insights magazine. Among others we focus on the prospective emerging markets. Our experts analyzed chances and challenges for the car industry in Indiaas well as the retail business in China. As usual, every story combines our expert knowledge with hands-on advices. For instance, the article about the fleet business in the BRIC states contains nine key to-dos for Editorial western OEMs, to thrive in the growing but complex fleet business of these prospering countries. Ralf Kalmbach In particular, I would like to mention the report "Know your customer Head of Automotive and Member of the Global Executive ? build better cars". It explains in detail, why marketing has to assume Committee, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants a leadership role in the product development from the very beginningIn our opinion, that is one of the important doctrines for the vehicle industry of the future. The future is one of the topics in our interview with Luca de Meo, too: We spoke with the board member of Audi about coming sales and marketing strategies as well as role models. Last but not least we asked Published by: our own automotive experts here at Roland Berger about their personal Roland Berger Strategy Consultants GmbH, review and expectations for the next years. Mies-van-der-Rohe-Stra?e 6, 80807 Munich Editors-in-chief: Finally, I recommend you the eMag version of this magazine that contains Ralf Kalmbach and Ralf Landmann a bunch of extra content. Please call or write my colleagues or myself, if you have any questions or want to share your view on one of the topicsEditors: I look forward to your feedback. Until then, I wish you insightful reading! Jan-Philipp Hasenberg, Christian Weber, Sven Wittmaack, Johann von Georg, RB Language Service Kind regards and a happy, successful new year, Layout: RB Media Design Printed by: Pinsker Druck und Medien, Munich Photo credits:. Cover: AUDI AG Page 2: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Ralf KalmbachPage 4: Robert James Elliot Page 7: Thomas Koehler/photothek.net Page 8: AUDI AG, General Motors, GettyImages, picture-alliance Page 10: AUDI AG Page 12:. Atlantide Phototravel/Corbis Page 17: Hartmut Schwarzbach/argus Page 19: Kuni Takahashi/Redux/laif Page 21:AUDI AG Page 23: Alfredo Caliz/panos Page 24: AUDI AG Page 36: Plainpicture Page 38: Liang Zhen/laif Page 42: General Motors Circulation: 4,100, published three times a year. No reprints without prior permission of the publisher. AUTOMOTIVE Insights | 01.2014SPECIAL SUBJECT Table of contents 12 21 4 28 Automotive 32 trends 2014 10 A LOOK AROUND THE WORLD 28 Automotive trends Our Roland Berger experts summarize last4 China year's highlights and take a look at 2014 How to succeed in the biggest vehicle market despite fiercer competition 30 Interview: Marcus Berret INTERVIEW Our Head of the automotive team in Germany talks about what's currently driving the industry 10 Luca de Meo The Audi board member speaks about next- generation vehicles and future sales strategies 32 Fleet management Opportunities and challenges in BRIC STRATEGY BOOKS & STUDIES 12 Driving economic growth 41 The latest Roland Berger publications at a glance India's vehicle business was an economic driverfor years, but now it is struggling ? an analysis FAMOUS CARS 42 75 years "Opel Kapit?n" 21 The important roleof marketing How in-depth knowledge about customerscan make it easier to develop new vehicles AUTOMOTIVE Insights | 01.2014 3A LOOK AROUND THE WORLD CHINA HOW TO SUCCEED IN CHINA High demand for smart strategies: The retail business in China is becoming more 4 AUTOMOTIVE Insights | 01.2014 complex with rising demands all aroundTHE LUXURY AND LOW-COST SEGMENTS ARE The automotive industry in EXPERIENCING ABOVE AVERAGE GROWTH RATES IN THE TOUGHENING CHINESE AUTOMOTIVE RETAIL MARKET China is facing increasing customer demands and CAR SALES IN THE CHINESEfiercer competition: Retail 1 AUTOMOTIVE MARKET innovation can help players 19,143 to prevail in the world's 1,982 CAGR 28% biggest vehicle market 13,641 1,241 11,428 CAGR 13% 8,628 he Chinese market for passenger cars and 442 8,545 light commercial vehicles is expected to grow 5,540 from 13.6 million units in 2012 to more than CAGR 14% T19 million in 2015. These figures are based 5,733 3,855 2,646 on a current study by the research company IHS. But growth will slow compared to previous years. Looking 2009 2012 2015e at the figures in more detail, it becomes apparent that especially the luxury vehicle as well as the lower-cost car Luxury Value Low-cost segments are outperforming total market growth ratesAnnual growth rates of approximately 14% are expected in the luxury vehicle segment, whereas the low-cost car TOUGHENING segment makes up 30% of the market and is showing an upward trend. ENVIRONMENT IN THERETAIL BUSINESS Changing market conditions This growth potential is reflected in the market as all Rapidmajor OEMs are increasingly investing in these two urbanization segments. Within the luxury segment, new localized Trend products are being introduced; the Audi Q3 or BMW Liquidity towards X1, for example. Moreover, with luxury penetration pressure consoli- of only around 7% ? a level significantly lower than in dation international markets 12% in the US, 30% in Germany AUTOMOTIVE ? there is still much room for growth. RETAIL In the low-cost segment on the other hand, newly launched joint venture brands such as Baojun are Increasing Declining expected to sell more than 150,000 units by 2015. But customer profitability it's not only domestic players who have an eye on the demand lower end of the market. International OEMs, such as Low GM with the Chevrolet Sail or Volkswagen with a yet aftersales undisclosed vehicle, have announced that they will be retention entering this segment in the upcoming years as wellToday, the segment is dominated by Great Wall and BYD, among various other Chinese brands such SGM- 1 Passenger vehicles PV and light commercial vehicles LCV, units ['000] Wuling, which sells more than 1.5 million cars annually. Source: IHS, Roland Berger AUTOMOTIVE Insights | 01.2014 5A LOOK AROUND THE WORLD | CHINA Budget-oriented car buyers, who mainly come from As a consequence, competition within these segments lower-tier cities, prefer quick and easy purchases, whichis heating up. To compound matters even further, is apparent by the significantly lower number of test additional factors such as increasing customer drives compared to other segments. Nevertheless, as requirements, greater discounts and higher real estate these buyers are fairly inexperienced, the decision toprices are putting pressure on retail margins and are buy a vehicle is a big one. In the future, we expect that shaking up the automotive retail environment seethese customers will seek a more professional sales our infographics at the page beforeprocess; one that takes the whole family experienceinto consideration and includes extensive sales adviceChanging customer In the luxury segment on the other hand, consumers expect a retail experience very similar to luxury requirements in the Chinese retailers such as Louis Vuitton or Apple. Exclusivityand entertainment offerings such as virtual interaction market or an accompanying "kids land", to keep the little ones At the same time, customer requirements are quickly happy, are greatly appreciated and are must-haves going changing. With the shift from a sellers' to a buyers' forward get further insights in the matrix belowmarket, new vehicle options have become available. Although there are significant differences in the Moreover, with the extremely diverse automotive consumer profiles of the low-cost and luxury segments, consumer landscape in China, OEMs and dealers increasing sophistication and the demand for excellent are facing huge challenges on how to best serve service means the two segments are convergingtheir customers' needs ? according to their regional Given that the car is a highly emotional product and preferences. that Chinese consumers are becoming more experienced THE LOW-COST AND LUXURY CHINESE CONSUMERS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THEIR PROFILES, BUT BOTH SHOW AN INCREASING SOPHISTICATION PREMIUM SEGMENT Criteria BUDGET SEGMENT Third, fourth or higher tier cities First or second tier cities Living 1 environment Mostly first time buyers with no purchasing Partly repeated customers who already possess Product 2 experience and thus only limited knowledge a certain expectation towards their vehicle, still experience high percentage of inexperienced buyers Low brand loyalty due to inexperience Comparatively more loyal than the budget Brand 3 segment but still willing to switch brands loyalty High importance of word-of-mouth advertising High importance of Word-of-Mouth advertising,Information sources 4 and internet increasing importance of internet and auto considered shows, multiple touchpoints with brand Mainly car sales, barely demand for additional Full service offer expected including car sales, Expectation in terms 5 services such as aftersales service aftersales service, financing etc. of service offering NEED FOR: NEED FOR: Local sales advice & excellent service Exclusivity & high class customized service Source: Roland Berger 6 AUTOMOTIVE Insights | 01.2014Jammed roads ahead: The increasing number of vehicles in China means more sales opportunities for OEMs, but as well a fiercer competition in the purchasing process, the "customer experience" competing in a highly crowded marketplace for a largely is becoming increasingly important. As a result, OEMs disloyal consumer. This makes the retail experience all in both market segments must find a different yet the more important. innovative approach for tackling these challenges. Even though dealers in the low-cost segment do not require prime locations as is the case with their luxury counterparts, they still cannot afford to be located inEvolving retail formats and remote areas either. To be profitable, the location needsto generate enough showroom traffic to reach the requiredchallenges for the luxury and sales efficiency levels. Consumers also expect a certain degree of professional low-cost segments sales and service advice. It is up to the management to set up a lean structure but still offer an appropriate level As mentioned earlier, dealers are struggling with both of professionalism throughout the sales process. It is a more competitive environment as well as more therefore a constant challenge to find the right balance sophisticated customers. The need to enhance the between controlling costs and enhancing the consumer customer experience and ensure profitability represents experience. segment-specific challenges and calls for developing new Even though the 4S retail model workplace retail formats. organization method popular in Asia, which stands for "Sales, Service, Spare parts and Surveys" does provide a more enhanced customer experience, it is difficult to Low-cost car segment ? sustain this retail format in the low-cost car segmentIn order to operate more cost effectively, structures and finding the right balance processes at retail outlets need to be downsized. To do so, common approaches include using satellites and sales The major challenge in this segment is to create a agents as well as scaling back presales activities. The relevant but yet sufficient customer experience, while dealer network needs to be mapped out strategically overcoming the specific economics: More brands are according to customers' geographic requirements and AUTOMOTIVE Insights | 01.2014 7BEST PRACTICES OF INNOVATIVE RETAIL FORMATS IN BOTH SEGMENTS IN THE CHINESE AUTOMOTIVE MARKET BUDGET SEGMENT PREMIUM SEGMENT SGM Wuling Great Wall Audi City Beijing Land Rover Experience Cooperation with local dealers Best-in-class budget car sales Digital showroom allowing the Off-road test drive to to meet local customer needs processes consumers to configure their cars experience the product first- with multi-touch screens and 3D hand under extreme conditions High share of sales agents Lean organization to meet projection technology working closely with local economics of the budget Driver training sessions dealers to ensure a deep segment Material lab to experience the to educate consumer and understanding of the rural car first-hand convince of functional consumers Regional dealers to speed up attributes the expansion process Private customer lounge to enhance the exclusivity Corporate team building Upgrade to 4S Model to events to deliver extraordinary enhance the service offering experience Source: Roland Berger depending on the city/location. Great Wall, for instance, offer them exclusivity, thereby reinforcing their statusdifferentiates its sales network even from model to in society. This means that brands in the luxury segment model in order to minimize its investments and tailor need to go to great lengths to create an extraordinary its efforts to its product offering. experience using new retail formats and retail-related Chinese consumers rely heavily on word-of-mouth eventsso that dealers need to be "localized" within their New formats, such as sales-only stores in premium region in order to guarantee an approach suitable to inner-city locations, temporary formats at event and local customers. Independent sales agents, who can exhibition centers and customer experience centers offer a cost-effective approach and at the same time have emerged in China, aiming to enhance brand have relevant local market knowledge, are becoming communication and customer premium experience increasingly popular. These sales agents make it possible By giving the consumer the opportunity to experience for dealers to reach neighboring cities faster and at lower the product firsthand through test drives and other cost. realities, the brands aim to evoke associated emotionsSince these brand centers are usually operated by the OEMs themselves, a clearly defined transfer Luxury car segment ? from system to the surrounding dealers needs to be ensuredConsequently, the interaction between these new wholesale to consumer-centric retail formats and traditional dealers requires more sophisticated coordination processes and clearly defined In this segment, dealerships are facing very different roles and responsibilities. The multiple channel and challenges. Chinese consumers are especially demanding store formats complicate network planning and require in terms of VIP treatment and expect luxury brands to a thorough analysis of the target locations and the 8 AUTOMOTIVE Insights | 01.2014A LOOK AROUND THE WORLD | CHINA customer structure. A further increase in format variety via social media will have a major impact on automotive such as service pickup or drop-off stations at airports is retail innovation. Tesco, for instance, is experimenting expected, as aftersales services are becoming increasingly in Asian countries with images of actual supermarket important. shelves in subways, allowing consumers to directly Yet another challenge for luxury brands is how to purchase products by scanning in the corresponding personalize the individual experience and tailor it QR codes. This method could translate into an to target customers and the brand's DNA. This means interactive and intuitive sales process in the low-cost luxury brands must be consistent with the underlying car segment, reducing the number of staff needed in motivations as well as the needs and aspirations of dealer outletstheir target group. This makes it essential to capture And fashion e-tailer Mogujie provides us with a best- customer information using CRM systems, profiling practice example too. It successfully leverages theand online data. trend toward micro-blogs and the Chinese preference As the number of vehicle models rises, sales force for word-of-mouth advertising. Mogujie created a differentiation is required to manage the competencies, platform for its consumers and allows young women knowledge and experience necessary for the respective to become experts and advise other consumers. This sales processes. In this regard, luxury retailers often lack means the voice of the local consumer becomes the qualified staff as rapid expansion means proper training brand's strongest ambassador. As luxury cars embody of the sales force was frequently neglected. OEMs must considerable passion, this segment could promote itstherefore enhance their training programs for sales products quite cost-effectively by giving their community managers. Given the fact that Chinese consumers take a voice and platform. various information sources into consideration, luxury Even though automotive retail business in China brands must offer a seamless consumer journey. is becoming more c