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首页 拼多多沽空报告(中英全文)-Blue Orca-2018.11

拼多多沽空报告(中英全文)-Blue Orca-2018.11.pdf

拼多多沽空报告(中英全文)-Blue Orca-2018.11

小眼睛班长
2019-01-21 0人阅读 举报 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《拼多多沽空报告(中英全文)-Blue Orca-2018.11pdf》,可适用于经济金融领域

BLUEORCACAPITALldquoOnepercentofbadapplesinthebarrelprobablywonrsquotaffectanything,bivepercentofbadappleswilldestroythewholebarrelrdquoColinHuang,PinduoduoCEOandFounderTHISRESEARCHREPORTEXPRESSESSOLELYOUROPINIONSWeareshortsellersWearebiasedSoarelonginvestorsSoisPDDSoarethebanksthatraisedmoneyfortheCompanyIfyouareinvested(eitherlongorshort)inPDD,soareyouJustbecausewearebiaseddoesnotmeanthatwearewrongUseBOCTexas,LLCrsquosresearchopinionsatyourownriskThisreportanditscontentsarenotintendedtobeanddonotconstituteorcontainanyfinancialproductadviceBecausethisdocumenthasbeenpreparedwithoutconsiderationofanyspecificclientsrsquoinvestmentobjectives,financialsituationorneeds,andnoinformationinthisreportshouldbeconstruedasrecommendingorsuggestinganinvestmentstrategyInvestorsshouldseektheirownfinancial,legalandtaxadviceinrespectofanydecisionregardinganysecuritiesdiscussedhereinYoushoulddoyourownresearchandduediligencebeforemakinganyinvestmentdecisions,includingwithrespecttothesecuritiesdiscussedhereinWehaveashortinterestinPDDrsquosstockandthereforestandtorealizesignificantgainsintheeventthatthepriceofsuchinstrumentdeclinesPleaserefertoourfulldisclaimerlocatedonthelastpageofthisreportCOMPANY:PinduoduoInc│NASDAQ:PDDINDUSTRY:EcommercePRICE(ASOFCLOSE)$MARKETCAP:$billionDAYAVGVOLUME:MMsharesBLUEORCAVALUATION$persharePinduoduoInc(NASDAQ:PDD)(ldquoPDDrdquoortheldquoCompanyrdquo)purportstobeChinarsquosthirdleadingecommerceplatformbehindAlibaba(NYSE:BABA)andJDcom(NASDAQ:JD)PDDrsquosmeteoricrisehasbeennearmiraculousBackedbyfamousventurecapitalfirmsandaninvestmentbyTencent,inthreeyearsPDDsupposedlywentfromaconceptonawhiteboardtoaUSDbillionmarketcapitalizationMarketcommentatorshaveanointeditthefastestgrowingecommercecompanyintheworldDonotbelievethehypeInthisreport,wereviewandanalyzemultipleindependentdatapointswhichindicate,inouropinion,thatPDDinflatesitsreportedrevenuesandGMVandunderstatesitsstaffingcostsandnetlossesDamningly,PDDrsquosownwebsitestatedthattheCompanyrsquostrueheadcountwasxtimesgreaterthanreportedinitsSECfilingsThisevidenceiscorroboratedbyrecruitingwebsiteswhichshowthatanundisclosedrelatedpartycontrolledbythechairmanishiringonbehalfofPDDInouropinion,thisindicatesthatPDDlikelyusesthissecretrelatedpartytoshoulderstaffingcostswhichshouldbeincludedintheCompanyrsquosconsolidatedfinancialsWebelieve,basedontheevidencepresentedinthisreport,thatPDDrsquosbusinessisworthconsiderablylessthanitclaimsIfwevaluePDDonthesamepricetosalesmultipleasAlibabarsquosbutadjusttowhatwebelieveareactualrevenues,wevaluePDDat$pershare,adownsidefromitslasttradedpriceAndthisislikelyconservative,aswearevaluingPDDrsquosgimmickyfadonthesamemultipleasChinarsquosleadingecommercebusinessManyinvestorsmayconclude,aswehave,thatPDDissimplyuninvestable)SAICFilingsIndicatethatPDDOverstatesRevenuesInitsprospectus,PDDclaimedthatonlytwoVIEsubsidiariescontributedoftheCompanyrsquosconsolidatedFYrevenuesYetintheirSAICfilings,whichincludebasicfinancialstatementssubmittedbylawtotheChinesegovernment,thesesametwoVIEsubsidiariesreportedonlyRMBbillionintotalrevenuesAfteraccountingforintercompanytransactions,suchSAICfilingsindicatethatPDDrsquostwoVIEsgeneratedRMBmillionorlessthantherevenuesreportedbyPDDinitsSECfilingsWehavebeenreviewingSAICfilingsofChinesecompaniesforalmostadecadeSuchfilings,inouropinion,aregenerallyindicativethatacompanyhasmisrepresenteditsfinancialperformancewhenSAICfilingsdiffermateriallyfromfinancialssubmittedtoUSinvestorsaSAICFilingsAlsoIndicatethatPDDUnderreportsNetLossesRevenuerecognitionrulesaresimilarunderChineseandUSGAAPandthus,inouropinion,cannotexplainthediscrepancybetweenSAICfilingsandPDDrsquosSECfinancialsFurthermore,anyrevenuerecognitiondiscrepanciesshouldwashoutwhencomparingprofitabilityacrossfilingsPDDreportedthatthenetlossesinthePRCwereonlyRMBmillioninButifweaddupthenetlossesofPDDrsquostwoVIEentitiesandtheirparentcompany,awhollyforeignownedenterprise,SAICfilingsindicatethatPDDrsquosnetlossesinthePRCwereRMBmillioninInouropinion,suchSAICfilingsshowthatPDDrsquosnetlossesinthePRCweregreaterthandisclosedtoUSinvestorsbPinduoduoInc│NASDAQ:PDDwwwblueorcacapitalcomcom)PDDUnderstatesEmployeeHeadcountandStaffingCostsWebelievethereissignificantevidencetoindicatethatPDDrsquosbusinessisnotnearlyasefficientastheCompanyclaimsandthatPDDrsquosactualheadcount(andbyextensionstaffingcosts)aresubstantiallyhigherthandisclosedinitsSECfilingsaPDDrsquosOwnWebsiteContradictsDisclosedHeadcountInitsprospectus,PDDstatedthatithadatotalofonly,employeesasofDecember,However,theWaybackMachineshowedthatonPDDrsquosownwebsite,PDDclaimedthatithadmorethan,employeesinDecemberandJanuaryBasedonthedisclosedheadcountonPDDrsquosownwebsite,weestimatethatPDDrsquosactualstaffingcostsinwereRMBmillion,RMBmillionmorethanimpliedbyPDDinitsSECfinancialsInturn,wethinkthiscorroboratesSAICfilingsandsupportsourinvestmentthesisthatPDDincurredfarhigherlossesthandisclosedinitsSECfilingsbPDDrsquosReportedGMVPerEmployeeisanInexplicableOutlierPDDreportedRMBmillionofGMVperemployeeinIfPDDistobebelieved,itgeneratesthehighestGMVperemployeeofitsecommercepeersandisfarmoreefficientonanGMVperemployeebasisthanevenAlibaba(RMBmillionperemployee)andJDcom(millionperemployee)ThisseemsunlikelyEitherPDDhashackedthebusinessandoperatesfarmoreefficientlythanleadingChineseecommercepeersdespitetheiradvantagesofscaleandoperatingexperience,orPDDrsquosdisclosednumbersarenotaccurateWebelieveitisthelatterIfinsteadweusetheheadcountdisclosedonPDDrsquoswebsite(insteadofitsSECfilings)inthecalculation,PDDrsquosGMVperemployeeisRMBmillion,rightinlinewiththeindustryaverageforecommercecompanies(RMBmillion)Inourview,thisisanadditionaldatapointindicatingthatPDDsignificantlyunderreportsitsheadcountandstaffingcoststoUSinvestors)UndisclosedRelatedPartyisSecretlyStaffingforPDDIn,PDDrsquosfounderandchairman,Colin(Zheng)Huangfoundedanecommerceservicecompany,DongguanLeqeeNetworkTechnologyCompanyLimited(ldquoLeqeerdquo)PDDneverevenmentionsLeqeeinitsprospectusYetthereisevidenceforcontinuingtransactionsbetweenLeqeeandPDDthroughoutthetrackrecordperiodanduptoOctoberLeqeeadvertisedonitsownwebsitethatitwasrecruitingoncampusforopenpositionsatPDDinInaddition,wefoundmultiplejobpostingsfromLeqeeadvertisingforpositionsatPDD,includingforjobswithtitlessuchasPDDeventcoordinatorandPDDpublicrelationsmanagerWealsofoundjobpostingsbyPDDadvertisingforpositionsatLeqeersquosofficesThisincludesadvertisementsforpositionsatPDDinHangzhou,acityinwhichLeqeehasofficesbutPDDneverdisclosesanyofficelocationsAttheveryleast,wethinksuchevidenceindicatescontinuingundisclosedrelatedpartytransactionsbetweenPDDandLeqeeUltimately,wesuspectthatLeqeeissecretlyshoulderingsomeofPDDrsquosstaffingcostscostswhichwebelieveshouldappearonPDDrsquosSECfinancialsandwouldincreasePDDrsquosreportedlossesandunderminePDDrsquosreportedoperatingefficiencyPDDisnotthebusinessitpretendstobeAnditsundiscloseddealingswithLeqee,inourview,shouldsubvertanynotionthatPDDisfairlyandaccuratelyrepresentingitsbusinessandfinancialperformancetoUSinvestors)PDDInflatesReportedGMVEcommercebusinesses,forbetterorworse,arevaluednotonlyonrevenueandprofitability(orlackthereof)butalsoonpopularitymetrics,principallythegrossvalueofmerchandisesoldontheplatform(GMV)Inouropinion,multipledatapointssuggestthatPDDrsquosreportedGMVissignificantlyinflated,presumablytomakeitsbusinesslookmoreattractivetoinvestorsaPDDrsquosDoubleContingencyArchitecturePromotesGMVOverstatementPDDdefinesGMVtoincludeallunsolditemsandunsettledordersWhilethisdefinitionisstandardacrossecommercecompanies,PDDrsquosuniquearchitecturemakesitsreportedGMVproblematicPDDrsquosapplicationdoesnothavealdquoshoppingcartrdquofunctionOnceacustomerconfirmsaproductselection,anldquoorderrdquoisautomaticallygeneratedCustomershavehourstopayfortheldquoorderrdquooritiscancelledThisisthefirstcontingency(shoppingcart)Thesecondcontingencyisthatevenifacustomerenterspaymentinformationforateamorder,thetransactionwillbecancelledafterhoursifnoonejoinsthecustomerrsquosteamPDDrsquossupposededgeissocialecommerce,buteveniftheteampurchasefallsthroughandthetransactioniscancelled,webelievethatPDDstillrecordstheldquoorderrdquotoGMV每日免费获取报告、每日微信群内分享最新重磅报告、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报、每周分享经济学人、每月汇总份当月重磅报告(增值服务)扫一扫二维码关注公号回复:研究报告加入ldquo起点财经rdquo微信群。PinduoduoInc│NASDAQ:PDDwwwblueorcacapitalcomcomInpractice,webelievePDDrsquosreportedGMVincludesbillionsofordersthatwereeitherfailedteampurchasesorweresimplyleftinadefactoshoppingcartWebelievethatPDDrsquosreportedGMVfiguresarethereforehighlymisleadingandarenotcomparabletotheGMVreportedbyitsecommercepeersThisuniquearchitecturealsoexplains,inouropinion,thematerialdiscrepanciesbetweenPDDrsquosreportedGMVandtheactualGMVimpliedbyitsdisclosedpaymentprocessingfeesandrevenuesSource:BlueOrcaAnalysisofPDDrsquosDisclosuresandApplication*Customerscanalsopurchaseproductsindividually,whichwebelieverepresentasmallportionoftotalordersbDisclosedPaymentProcessingCostsImplyGMVLessthanReportedPDDstatesonitswebsitethatitdoesnotchargecommissionsontransactionsbutadmitsthatitcollectsatransactionfeeonbehalfofthirdpartypaymentprocessorsWeChatPayandAlipayPDDreportedthatsuchpaymentprocessingcostswereRMBmillionandRMBmillioninandQ,respectivelyIfeverytransactiononPDDrsquosecommerceplatformgeneratesintransactionfeecosts,thenlogically,suchcostsshouldbeofPDDrsquosreportedGMVButthemathdoesnotaddupRather,usingPDDrsquosdisclosedtransactioncostsasaninput,wecalculatethatPDDrsquosactualGMVwasRMBbillioninandQ,lessthanPDDrsquosreportedRMBbillioninGMVoverthosefivequarterscDisclosedCommissionFeeRevenuesImplyGMVLessthanReportedPDDalsodisclosesrevenuesfrompaymentprocessingfees,whichtheCompanyclaimsareofthevalueofthemerchandisesoldThisrevenueshouldbeclosetothepaymentprocessingcosts,butaccountsforbothreturnsandtransactionscancelledafterpaymentBasedonthedisclosedcommissionfeerevenues,theimpliedGMVshouldincludeallpaidordersplacedonPDDrsquosplatform,regardlessofwhethertheordersaredeliveredorreturnedForthemonthsendingJune,PDDrsquosreportedcommissionfeerevenuesofRMBbillionimplythatPDDrsquosactualGMV(includingreturns)wasonlyRMBbillionoverthatperiod,lessthanreportedtoUSinvestorsInouropinion,thisisanotherdatapointindicatingthatPDDsimplyexaggeratedGMVtofeeditshypemachinedPayablestoMerchantsandCashCycleImplyGMVLessthanReportedThemerchantcashcycleistheperiodoftimefromwhenacustomerpaysforanordertothedaywhenthemerchantreceivesthecashfromthesaleDuringthistimePDDisholdingthemerchantrsquoscash,andthusmustrecordaliabilityldquopayablestomerchantsrdquoIfPDDrsquosreportedGMVanditsdisclosedbalanceofmerchantpayablesaretrue,itshouldtakeanaverageofdaysfromthetimeacustomerpaysforanorderuntilthetimeamerchantreceivesthecashButinpractice,merchantsreportthattheprocesstakesmuchlongerBasedPinduoduoInc│NASDAQ:PDDwwwblueorcacapitalcomcomonourduediligence,weestimatethattheactualmerchantcashcycleisatleastdays(frompayment,toshipping,toreceipt,throughwithdrawalofthecashfromthemerchantrsquosPDDaccount)BecausetheactualcashcycleismuchlongerinpracticethanimpliedbyPDDrsquosreportedfigures,wethinkthemostlikelyexplanationforthisdiscrepancyisthatPDDrsquosrealGMVismuchlowerthanreported)AggressiveRevenueRecognitionPDDexplicitlytellsmerchantsthatitcollectsnocommissions,andthatthetransactionfees()arecollectedonbehalfofthirdpartypaymentservicessuchasWeChatPayandAlipayIndeed,PDDreportedRMBmillionoftransactionfeerevenuesbutRMBmillionoftransactionfeecostsin,indicatingthatthiscommissionfeerevenuewaszeromarginWebelievethatprevailingGAAPaccountingrulesprohibitacompanyfromrecognizingrevenuescollectedonbehalfofthirdpartiesThesearepassthroughrevenueswhichshouldbereportedonanet,notagrossbasisThisismaterialbecauseitdemonstratesPDDrsquosaggressiveapproachtoaccountingrulesItisalsomaterialbecausefirmslikePDDtradeonamultipleofsalesEvenifitispassthroughrevenue,PDDcaninflateitsstockpricebyrecordingahighertoplineVALUATIONPDDclaimstohavegonefromscratchtoChinarsquosthirdlargestecommercebusinessinthreeyearsTheWallSthypemachine,infullforce,toutsitastheworldrsquosfastestgrowinginternetcompanyThishypehaspushedPDDrsquosstocktonosebleedpricesbefittingitsfaddishbusinessmodelAsabasisofcomparison,PDDtradesatxLTMQsales,twicethemultipleofindustrygiantAlibaba(x)andfortyfourtimesthepricetosalesmultipleofmoreestablishedChineseecommercebusinesseslikeJDcom(x)MostofJDcomrsquosrevenuesarefromdirectsales,notmerchantservices,sothecomparisonisnotperfectButitisillustrativeOnanestimatedpricetosalesratio,PDDrsquosstockstilllooksveryexpensive(x)comparedtoAlibaba(x)andotherChineseecommerceplayersSource:FactSet,Bloomberg,GMVfiguresfrompublicfilingsandGoldmanSachsresearchreport*RatiosarecalculatedusingthepricesclosedonNov,Webelieve,basedontheevidencepresentedinthisreport,thatPDDrsquosbusinessisworthfarlessthanitclaimsBecausetheyarechronicallyunprofitable,investorsvaluegrowingecommercebusinessesonamultipleofsalesWebelievethatSAICfilingsprovidecompellingevidencethatPDDrsquossaleswerelessthanreportedAsaresult,webelievethatanyvaluationofPDDonamultipleofsalesshouldadjustsalesfiguresaccordinglytoreflectitsSAICfilingsOnanadjustedsalesfigure,usingAlibabarsquospricetosalesratio(x),wevaluePDDrsquossharesat$,adownsidefromitscurrentpriceLTMELTMELTMEAlibaba,xxxxxxJDcom,xxxxNoEarningsxVipshop,xxxxxxSecooxxxNAxxMedianxxxxxxAveragexxxxxxPinduoduo,xxxxNoEarningsNoEarningsStockprice(USD)MarketCap(USDM)PSPGMVPEPinduoduoInc│NASDAQ:PDDwwwblueorcacapitalcomcomValuation:PSMultipleSource:PDDPublicFilings,FactSet,Bloomberg,BlueOrcaCalculationSomeanalystsvaluePDDonearnings,basedonthefantasythatPDDrsquoslossmakingbusinesswillmagicallybecomeprofitablebythattimeWethinksuchprognosticationsfailtoaccountforevidencehighlightedinthisreportsuggestingthatPDDunderstatesitsheadcountandbyextensionitsstaffingcostsWhichisinturnsupportedbyevidencethatLeqee,anundisclosedrelatedparty,issecretlybearingsomeofPDDrsquosstaffingcostsInourview,thisevidencesuggestsPDDrsquoscoststructureismoreonerousthandisclosed,reducingthelikelihoodthatitschronicallyunprofitablebusinesswillsomehowmagicallyturnacornerbyPDDisalsosometimesvaluedasamultipleofGMVHerewebelievethereisampleevidencetosupportourinvestmentthesisthattheCompanyrsquosreportedGMVisoverinclusiveandmisleading,andthattheactualtransactionvolumesthroughPDDrsquosecommerceplatformaresubstantiallylowerthantheheadlineGMVWehavethreedatapointstosuggestGMVisoverstated:paymentprocessingcosts,commissionfeerevenuesandthemerchantcashcyclePDDOverstatedItsGMVbySource:BlueOrcaCalculationThethreemetricsimplythatPDDrsquosactualGMVisbetweenlessthanreportedIfwetakeanaverage(lessthanreported),wecanvaluePDDrsquossharesonapricetoadjustedGMVbasisInthiscalculation,wegenerouslyusetheCompanyrsquoscurrentpricetoGMVmultiple(x)Afteracorporategovernancediscount,whichwebelieveisappropriategiventhecompleteabsenceoftransparencyastoPDDrsquosGMVcomposition,wevaluePDDrsquossharesat$pershareonanadjustedGMVbasis$ERevenue(USDM),#ofshares(M),SalespershareCurrenttradingpricePSmultiplexRevenueOverstatedAdjustedSalespershareAlibabaPSmultiplexBlueOrcaValuationDownsideImpliedGMVbasedonOverstatementPaymentProcessingCostsCommissionFeeRevenuesCashCycleAveragePinduoduoInc│NASDAQ:PDDwwwblueorcacapitalcomcomValuation:PGMVMultipleSource:PDDPublicFilings,GoldmanSachsresearchreportonSeptember,,FactSet,BlueOrcaCalculationWethinkourvaluationisconservative,asourpriceadjustedsalescalculationusesgenerousmultiplesattributedtoindustryleadingecommercebusinessesButcompaniesmisrepresentingtheirfinancialperformance,inflatingimportantusageandpopularitymetrics,andengaginginundisclosedrelatedpartytransactionsdonotdeservetotradeatsuchgenerousmultiplesSoalthoughwevaluePDDrsquossharesat$onapricetoadjustedsales,and$onapricetoadjustedGMV,weexpectsomeinvestorsmayconclude,aswehave,thatPDDissimplyuninvestable$EGMV(RMBM),#ofshares(M),GMVpershare(RMB)GMVpershareCurrenttradingpricePGMVmultiplexGMVOverstatedAdjustedGMVpershareAdjustedsharepricePGMVmultiplexCorporateGovernanceDiscountAdjustedPGMVmultiplexBlueOrcaValuationDownsidePinduoduoInc│NASDAQ:PDDwwwblueorcacapitalcomcomBETTERWAYTOSELLTISSUEPAPERPDDattributesitsrisetotheuniquesocialandinteractivecharacteristicsofitsecommerceplatformPDDrsquosapplicationoffersretailproductsthroughitsappwithatwist:insteadofmerelypurchasingproductsforthemselves,consumerscanreceiveadiscountiftheycansuccessfullyenticefriends,familyandothermembersoftheirsocialnetworktojointhemintheirpurchaseThevaluepropositionistoenhanceonlineshoppingwithelementsofsocialinteraction,bargainhuntingandgamingPDDrsquossocalledldquoteampurchaserdquomodelisfairlycleverItturnsshoppersintomarketersInordertogetthebestprices,buyersareencouragedtoshareproductinformationonsocialnetworksandenticeotherstotransactthroughtheplatformTheusers,ineffect,areoneoftheprimarydriversofusergrowthPDDdoesnotchargecommissionsontransactions,butratherderivesalmostallofitsrevenuesfromldquoonlinemarketingservicesrdquoSimilarinconcepttoGooglersquosAdWords,merchantsbidforkeywordsthatmatchaproductlistingappearinginsearchresultsPDDalsoprovidesforadvertisingplacements(bannerslinkslogos)throughanonlinebiddingsystemButPDDrsquosplatformalsocreatestradeoffsItsbargainhunting,grouppurchasemodelattractscheap,lowqualitygoodsandlowerticketpricesPDDrsquosgrowthhasbeendrivenbycheapgoods,includingfruitsandvegetables,anditspopularityisdrivenbyusersinlowertiercitiesItsreportedtakerateislowcomparedtootherChineseplatformslikeAlibabaandJDcom,anditsaverageticketsizeisonlyRMB,xlowerthanJDandxlowerthanAlibabaOneanalysisoftheSKUsforsaleonPDDrsquosplatform,whichscrubbedmorethan,piecesofdata,reportedthatthemostpopularitemforsaleonPDDrsquosplatformwasactuallytissuepaperBestSellingItemonPDDrsquosPlatformIndeed,shortlyafteritsIPO,PDDrsquossharessankonaccusationsfromvariousmanufacturersthatitsplatformwasahavenforcounterfeitproductsThispromptedaprobefromChineseregulators,whichisstillongoing(toourknowledge)AlthoughtherearesmartinvestorsthatareshortPDDbecauseitsplatformisreportedlyinundatedwithcounterfeitgoods,wewillnotbediscussingitinthisreportConsideritsimplygravyOracherryontopofanalreadycompellingshortinvestmentthesisPDDsellscheapgoodstoChinarsquospoorerpeopleinChinarsquospoorercitiesAndwhilethereissomevalueinthebusiness,thecruxofourinvestmentthesisisthatthisbusinessisnotnearlyaslucrative,impressive,fastgrowingnorasscalableasPDDwouldhaveinvestorsbelieveGoldmanSachsSellSideReport,September,PinduoduoInc│NASDAQ:PDDwwwblueorcacapitalcomcomSAICFILINGSINDICATETHATPDDOVERSTATEDREVENUESANDUNDERSTATEDNETLOSSESPubliclyavailablefilingsfromtheStateAdministrationforIndustryandCommerce(ldquoSAICrdquo)indicate,inouropinion,thatPDDrsquosrevenueswerelessthanreportedtoinvestorsinitsIPOprospectusSAICfilingsalsoindicatethatPDDrsquosnetlossesinChinaweregreaterthanreportedinitsSECfilingsPDDrsquoscorporatestructureisrelativelysimpleBeneathanoffshoreholdingcompany(WalnutHK)andanonshorePRCwhollyforeignownedenterprise(WFOE),PDDoperatesitsecommercebusin

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拼多多沽空报告(中英全文)-Blue Orca-2018.11

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