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首页 贝恩咨询贝恩分析技能概要

贝恩咨询贝恩分析技能概要.ppt

贝恩咨询贝恩分析技能概要

光平
2019-04-25 0人阅读 举报 0 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《贝恩咨询贝恩分析技能概要ppt》,可适用于战略管理领域

LeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*APrimeronAnalysisOverviewConfidentialDocumentLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*TABLEOFCONTENTSIntroductionGeneralanalyticaltechniquesGraphsDeflatorsRegressionanalysisSupplysideanalysisCoststructuresDesigndifferencesFactorcostsScale,experience,complexityandutilizationSupplycurvesDemandsideanalysisCustomerunderstandingsegmentationandldquoDiscoveryrdquoconjointanalysismultidimensionalscalingPricevolumecurvesandelasticityDemandforecastingtechnologysubstitutioncurvesWrapupLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*LOGICANDANALYSISCRITICALTOSTRATEGYDEVELOPMENTKeytostrategydevelopmentislayingoutldquologicrdquotoUnderstandwhatmakesbusinessworkeconomicsinteractionsacrosscompetitors,segments,time,ConceptuallyorganizeclientgoalsDevisewaystoachieveclientrsquosgoalsHelpclientldquomakeithappenrdquoAtightlydevelopedpieceofthislogicisanalysisReducingcomplexrealitytoafewsalientpointsIsolatingimportanteconomicelementsLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*ANALYSISISMORETHANNUMBERCRUNCHINGAnalysisisIntegratingquantitativeandqualitativeknowledgeSeeingthebiggerpictureThinkingcreativelyconceptuallyNotEndlesscalculationsLettingstatisticsdictateruleldquoClassicrdquoscientificrigorLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*ANALYTICALBIASldquoEverythingcanbequantifiedrdquoNotreally,butMostldquoqualitativerdquoeffectsarebasedineconomicsexplicitoropportunitycostsaccuratelyquantifiableornotClienthiresustoanalyzeandobjectifyQuantitativeanalysisisthebasisLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*CREATIVITYANDANALYTICALPERSEVERANCEAREIMPORTANTTRAITSFORSUPERIORANALYSTSStrivetoaddressaproblemusingdifferentapproachestotesthypothesesandfindinconsistenciesTriangulateonanswersNeverbelieveadataseriesblindlyNeverstopatfirstobstacleClientsoftenstopshortofgoodanalysisbecausetheyquicklysurrenderintheabsenceofgood,readilyavailabledataWeneversurrendertotheunavailabilityofdataYourcaseleaderdoesnotwanttohearthatldquothereisnodata,rdquobutratherwhatcanbedeveloped,inhowmuchtime,andatwhatcostLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*WHERETHISPRIMERFITSNodocumentcanteachyoutobeagreatanalystAnswerslookeasy,butprocessofgettingtherepainfulEachproblemsomewhatdifferentfromexamplesAprimercanGiveflavorofexpectedanalysesShowwhichanalyseshavebeenmostproductivehistoricallyExplainbasictechniquesandwarnofcommonmethodologicalerrorsBesttrainingcomesfromExperienceinprojectteamworkDiscussionswithJohnTangandothersYouareexpectedtolocateknowledgeonyourowninitiativeLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*DONrsquoTLIMITYOURSELFTOTHESETOOLSTheyareasampleofthemostcommonlyusedtoolsOtherswillbeofuseinspecificsituationsValuemanagement(CFROI,assetgrowth,etc)Additionally,notoolcansubstituteforanewcreativeapproachLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*TABLEOFCONTENTSIntroductionGeneralanalyticaltechniquesGraphsDeflatorsRegressionanalysisSupplysideanalysisCoststructuresDesigndifferencesFactorcostsScale,experience,complexityandutilizationSupplycurvesDemandsideanalysisCustomerunderstandingsegmentationandldquoDiscoveryrdquoconjointanalysismultidimensionalscalingPricevolumecurvesandelasticityDemandforecastingtechnologysubstitutioncurvesWrapupLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*RELATIONSHIPSHAVEMOSTIMPACTWHENDISPLAYEDVISUALLYGraphsandchartsshouldbeeasilyunderstandabletoaldquononquantitativerdquoclientDisplayonemainideapergraphMakethepointasdirectlyaspossibleDemonstrateclearrelevancetoaccompanyingmaterialandclient#sbusinessClearlylabeltitle,axes,andsourcesTailorgraphtoitsaudienceandpurposeExplorationPersuasionDocumentationLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*CHOOSEGRAPHSCALETHOUGHTFULLYMatchchartboundariestorelevantrangeofthedataascloselyaspossibleSelectscaletofacilitatethinkingaboutproposedrelationshipsUsesamescaleacrosschartsifyouintendtocomparethemLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*LINEARVSLOGOnalinearscale,agivendifferencebetweentwovaluescoversthesamedistanceanywhereonthescaleOnalogarithmicscale,agivenratiooftwovaluescoversthesamedistanceanywhereonthescalesupOneCycleLinearLogLogsupTheratioofanythingtozeroisinfiniteZerocannotappearonalogscaleLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*DATARELATIONSHIPDETERMINESSELECTIONOFSCALEThreeScalesMostCommonLinearLogLogLinearLinear(usuallytime)LogLinearSemiLogLogLogConstantRateofChangeConstantGrowthRateConstantldquoElasticityrdquoGivennopriorexpectationabouttheformofarelationship,plotitlinearlyy=mxblogy=mxblogy=mlogxbLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*WHENSHOULDALINEARGRAPHBEUSEDLineargraphsarebestwhenthechangeinunittermsisofinterest,eg,MarketshareovertimeProfitmarginovertimeFortyfivedegreedownwardslopinglinesonlineargraphrepresentpointswhosexandyvalueshaveconstantsumRaysthroughoriginrepresentpointswithcommonratioMarketShare()LinearGraphHardwareSoftwareLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*WHENSHOULDASEMILOGPLOTBEUSEDSemiloggraphsaregenerallyusedtoillustrateconstantgrowthrates,eg,VolumeofsalesgrowthovertimeYearSource:AgriculturalStatisticsUSCornYield(BushelsAcre)Rsup=SemiLogGraphLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*WHENSHOULDALOGLOGPLOTBEUSEDLogloggraphsaregenerallyusedtoplotldquoelasticities,rdquoeg,PriceelasticityofdemandScaleslopeFortyfivedegreedownwardslopinglinesshowpointswithcommonproductSalariedandIndirecthourlyEmployeesBillionImpressionsofCapacityPrintingCapacity(BillionsofImpressions)ScaleSlopeRsup=,LeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*CIRCLEORBUBBLECHARTSOFTENUSEDTOSHOWATHIRDDIMENSIONThirddimensionshouldberelatedtoxandyaxesCommonexamplesinclude:MarketsizeAssetsCostflowCirclearea(notdiameter)isproportionalLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*BUBBLECHARTEXAMPLECategoryGrowthVersusGrossMarginVersusSizeRealCAGR()GrossMargin()=$BsalesConsumerElectronicsToysHousewaresGiftsJewelrySportingGoodsSmallAppliancesCameraPhotoSource:DiscountMerchandiserLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*TABLEOFCONTENTSIntroductionGeneralanalyticaltechniquesGraphsDeflatorsRegressionanalysisSupplysideanalysisCoststructuresDesigndifferencesFactorcostsScale,experience,complexityandutilizationSupplycurvesDemandsideanalysisCustomerunderstandingsegmentationandldquoDiscoveryrdquoconjointanalysismultidimensionalscalingPricevolumecurvesandelasticityDemandforecastingtechnologysubstitutioncurvesWrapupLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*DEFLATORSCORRECTEFFECTSOFINFLATIONConvertsVariablesfromldquoNominalrdquotoldquoRealrdquoTimeseriesdataindollarswithhighorwidelyfluctuatinginflationratesdistortpictureofgrowthDeflatingdataremovessomeofthedistortionUsingadeflatorindexlist,currencydataaremultipliedbytheratioofthebaseyeardeflatorindextothedatayeardeflatorindex,eg,sales($)=($)xDeflatorDeflatorLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*SELECTAPPROPRIATEDEFLATORDEPENDINGONTHEQUESTIONYOUrsquoRETRYINGTOANSWERGNPdeflatorisbestforexpressingdollarsintermsofaveragerealvaluetotherestoftheeconomyCurrent(variable)weightsMeasuredquarterlyCPIisbestonlyforexpressingvalueinrelationtoconsumerspendingonafixedmarketbasketofgoods(base)MeasuredmonthlyIndustryorproductspecificindicesarebestforconvertingdollarsintomeasuresofphysicaloutputAvailablefromCommerceDeptforbroadindustrycategoriesCanbeconstructedfromclientorindustrydatafornarrowcategoriesLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*BECAREFULWHENMIXINGEXCHANGERATESANDINFLATIONACROSSCOUNTRIESFirstconverteachcountryrsquoshistoricaldatatoconstantlocalcurrencyEg,JapanmdashyenWGermanymdashDMUSAmdashdollarsThenconverttosinglecurrency(dollars,forexample)atfixedexchangerateLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*EXAMPLE:ANINTEGRATEDCIRCUITMANUFACTURERReportedSalesGNPDeflatorAverageICAverageICYear($M)(=)Price($)TransistorPrice(cent),,,Reportedsales$Realsales$ICunitsalesTransistorsalesGrowthRates(peryear)LeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*TABLEOFCONTENTSIntroductionGeneralanalyticaltechniquesGraphsDeflatorsRegressionanalysisSupplysideanalysisCoststructuresDesigndifferencesFactorcostsScale,experience,complexityandutilizationSupplycurvesDemandsideanalysisCustomerunderstandingsegmentationandldquoDiscoveryrdquoconjointanalysismultidimensionalscalingPricevolumecurvesandelasticityDemandforecastingtechnologysubstitutioncurvesWrapupLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*REGRESSIONANALYSISISAPOWERFULTOOLFORUNDERSTANDINGRELATIONSHIPBETWEENTWOORMOREVARIABLESRegressionanalysis:Explainsvariationinonevariable(dependent)usingvariationinoneormoreothervariables(independent)QuantifiesandvalidatesrelationshipsIsusefulforpredictionandcausalexplanationButMustnotsubstituteforclearindependentthinkingaboutaproblemUseassingleelementinportfolioofanalyticaltechniquesCanbemorassldquoloseforestfortreesrdquoLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*ANYRELATIONSHIPBETWEENVARIABLESXANDYUsedalone,graphicalmethodsprovideonlyqualitativeandgeneralinferencesaboutrelationshipsPercentACVsupAnnualNumberofPurchasesbyConsumerX:AnnualnumberofpurchasesbybuyerY:PercentACVsupPercentACVisthevolumeweightedaveragepercentofgrocerystoreswhichcarrythecategorySources:ScanTrackIRIMarketingFactbookBCGAnalysisLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*REGRESSIONANALYSISANSWERSTHESEQUESTIONSWhatisrelationshipbetweenXandYHowbiganeffectdoesXhaveonYWhatisthefunctionalformIseffectpositiveornegativeHowstrongisrelationshipHowwelldoesXldquoexplainrdquoYHowwelldoesmymodelworkoverallHowwellhaveIexplainedYingeneralArethereothervariablesthatIshouldbeincludingLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*WHATISRELATIONSHIPBETWEENXANDYRegressionfitsastraightlinetothedatapointsPercentACV=annualpurchasesOnemoreannualpurchasewillraisepercentACVbypercentagepointsSlopeofline(here)indicatessizeofeffectsignofslope(herepositive)indicateswhethereffectispositiveornegativePercentACVAnnualNumberofPurchasesbyCustomerR=MultipleRRSquare()AdjustedRSquare()StandardErrorObservationsRegressionStatisticsRegressionEResidualTotalAnalysisofVariancedfSumofSquaresMeanSquareFSignificantFIntercept()()()()XECoefficientsStandardErrortStatisticPvalueLowerUpperSources:ScantrackIRIMarketingFactbook()BCGAnalysisMicrosoftExcelRegressionOutputLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*HOWSTRONGISRELATIONSHIPlsquotstatisticrsquomeasureshowwellXexplainsYSimplycalculatedasslopedividedbyitsstandarderrorCloserslopeistozero,andorhigherstandarderror(variability),theweakertherelationshipAshortcut:tstatisticgreaterinmagnitudethanmeansrelationshipisverystrong(ie,roughlyconfidencelevel)Betweenand,relationshipisrelativelystrong(ie,roughlyconfidencelevel)Under,relationshipisweakMultipleRRSquare()AdjustedRSquare()StandardErrorObservationsRegressionEResidualTotalRegressionStatisticsdfSumofSquaresMeanSquareFSignificanceFIntercept()()()()xECoefficientsStandardErrortStatisticPvalueLowerUpperAnalysisofVarianceLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*HOWWELLDOESMYMODELWORKOVERALLRmeasuresproportionofvariationinYthatisexplainedbythevariablesinthemodelherejustXIndicatesoverallhowwellmodelexplainsYBasedonhowdispersedthedatapointsarearoundtheregressionlineRmeasuredonscaleoftoindicatesperfectfitofregressionlinetothedatapointsLowRindicatescurrentmodeldoesnotfitthedatawellsuggeststhereareotherexplanatoryfactors,besidesX,thatwouldhelpexplainYMultipleRRSquare()AdjustedRSquare()StandardErrorObservationsRegressionEResidualTotalRegressionStatisticsdfSumofSquaresMeanSquareFSignificanceFIntercept()()()()xECoefficientsStandardErrortStatisticPvalueLowerUpperAnalysisofVarianceLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*USEMULTIPLEREGRESSIONTOSORTOUTEFFECTSOFSEVERALINFLUENCESUseWhenseveralfactorshaveanimpactsimultaneouslyTohelpdistinguishcausefromcorrelationDonrsquotuseasldquofishingexpeditionrdquoLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*MULTIPLEREGRESSIONCANENHANCEPREDICTIVEABILITYACVwithFeaturesandorDisplaysBrandSizePercentofHouseholdsBuyingAnnualNumberofPurchasesperYearACVwithFeaturesandorDisplaysACVwithFeaturesandorDisplaysBrandSize($M)PercentofHouseholdsBuyingAnnualNumberofPurchasesYearRsup=Rsup=Rsup=Rsup=PredictedACVwithFeaturesandorDisplaysActualACVwithFeaturesandorDisplaysBrandSize,Reach,andPurchaseFreqencySources:ScantrackIRIMarketingFactbookBCGAnalysisLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*OTHERREGRESSIONEXAMPLESVeryLowRsup*PercentACVUSCornYield(BushelsAcre)USCornYield(BushelsAcre)RetailerMarginonDealAverageNumberofDaysonDealTotalAnnualPurchases(M)NegativeSlope*NonlinearRawData**AfterLogTransformation***Sources:IRIMarketingFactbookCertifiedPriceBookNielsenBCGAnalysis**Source:AgriculturalStatisticsRsup=Rsup=Rsup=LeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*QUESTIONSTOASKBEFORERUNNINGAREGRESSIONWhichvariableisthepredictive(ordependent)variableOftenstraightforwardbutsometimesrequiresthoughtConsiderdirectionofcausationWhatexplanatoryvariablesdoIbelieveareappropriatetoincludeAvoidspuriouscorrelationsmdashthinkindependentlyaboutwhatfactorsarelogicaltoincludeAvoidincludingexplanatoryvariablesthatarehighlycorrelatedwitheachotherShouldtheregressionhaveanintercepttermHowfarcanthedatabereasonablyextrapolatedShouldtheregressionlinecutthroughtheoriginDoesazerovalueofexplanatoryvariableimplyazerovalueforpredictivevariableHaveIplottedthedataWatchooroutliersLookforformofdata(linear,exponential,power,etc)DoIhaveenoughobservationsRoughruleofthumb:observationsforeachexplanatoryvariableLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*TABLEOFCONTENTSIntroductionGeneralanalyticaltechniquesGraphsDeflatorsRegressionanalysisSupplysideanalysisCoststructuresDesigndifferencesFactorcostsScale,experience,complexityandutilizationSupplycurvesDemandsideanalysisCustomerunderstandingsegmentationandldquoDiscoveryrdquoconjointanalysismultidimensionalscalingPricevolumecurvesandelasticityDemandforecastingtechnologysubstitutioncurvesWrapupLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*WHYDOCOSTANALYSISDefinerelevantcompetitiveenvironmentBasisofadvantage(profitlevers)RelativestrengthsweaknessesofcompetitorsBarriertonewcompetitorsEffectofchangesovertime(technology,scale)PredicteffectofonefirmrsquosactionsonCompetitors(shortterm,reaction)ProfitandcashflowofclientNotCostsystemsCorrectingaveragecostingforitsownsakeLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*WHICHCOSTSCompetitivecostanalysisUseactualcosts,notstandardsUsefullyabsorbedcosts,sinceexpensesareoftenthemostsensitivetoscaleexperience,etcIdentifycostsandexpenseswithindividualmodelsproductlinesTherefore,competitivecostanalysisinvolvesAllocationofvariancesAllocationofexpensesCapitalizationofnonrecurringcostsandexpensesLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*INMOSTSUPPLYSIDEANALYSIS,FIRSTLAYOUTTHECLIENTrsquoSCOSTSTRUCTUREFocusonKeyCostElementsProfitOverheadSellingandDistributionVariableManufacturingRawMaterialsFixedManufacturingGainRawmaterialsSellinganddistributionAdvantagebullBackwardintegrationbullRelateddiversificationtofurtherThroughusesalesforcebullPurchasingscalebullSalesfocus,toolsLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*COSTDATACANBEFOUNDINCLIENTACCOUNTINGSYSTEMSClientaccountingsystemsgoodforControlauditofshorttermevolutionNotforstrategicanalysisGenerallybrokendownbytypeofcostDirectIndirectOverheadsEmphasisisonefficiency,notonunderstandinglongtermcostdynamicsasafunctionofscale,runlength,etcLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*BUTOFTENREQUIRESRECASTINGMaterialsManufacturingcostsMetalworkingPaintingAssemblyOverheadsDistributioncostsLogisticsWarehousingSellingcostsSalesmenAftersalesserviceMarketingcostsAdvertisingOverheadsGATotalcostMaterialsManufacturingcostsDirectIndirectOverheadsCommercialcostsVariableFixedTotalcostAccountingSystemStrategicCostElementsLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*MANYVARIABLESAFFECTCOSTSMaterialsVolumeLocationofsuppliersDesignManufacturingPlantoutputTechnologyExperienceDesignRunlengthComplexityFactorcostsLogisticsVolumeDropsizeSellingVolumeNumberofoutletsMarketingVolumeVolumebrandLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*TABLEOFCONTENTSIntroductionGeneralanalyticaltechniquesGraphsDeflatorsRegressionanalysisSupplysideanalysisCoststructuresDesigndifferencesFactorcostsScale,experience,complexityandutilizationSupplycurvesDemandsideanalysisCustomerunderstandingsegmentationandldquoDiscoveryrdquoconjointanalysismultidimensionalscalingPricevolumecurvesandelasticityDemandforecastingtechnologysubstitutioncurvesWrapupLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:copyTheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved*DESIGNDIFFERENCESCANBEAMAJORDRIVEROFPRODUCTCOSTDIFFERENCESAffectrawmaterialcostsaswellasmanufacturingvalueaddedUsuallyrequiresaldquoteardownrdquoofcompetitorproductstounderstandrealdifferencesRequire

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