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首页 2009全球煤炭的报告

2009全球煤炭的报告.pdf

2009全球煤炭的报告

狼爱土豆
2010-08-05 0人阅读 举报 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《2009全球煤炭的报告pdf》,可适用于工程科技领域

VEREINDERKOHLENIMPORTEUREFactsandTrendsPublisher:VereinderKohlenimporteureeVHamburg,FerdinandstraßePhone:()Fax:()email:VereinKohlenimporteuretonlinedeInternet:wwwvereinkohlenimporteuredewwwkohlenimporteuredeDesignLayout:WerbeagenturKnopf,Dielheim(ISSN)ANNUALREPORTImportCoalMarketataGlanceWorldHardcoaloutputMillt,,,HardcoalworldtradeMilltthereofhardcoalseaborneMillthardcoalgreenbordertradeMilltcokeproductionMilltcokeworldtradeMilltEuropeanUnion()HardcoaloutputMilltHardcoalimportsDomestictradeMilltHardcoalcokeimportsMilltGermanyHardcoalconsumptionMilltHardcoaloutputMilltusableoutputTotalimportsMilltthereofhardcoalimportsMilltcokeimportsMilltUseofimportcoalMilltthereofpowerplantsMilltironandsteelindustryMilltheatingmarketMilltPricesSteamcoalmarkerpriceCIFNWEUS$tSKEcrossborderpricesteamcoal€tTCECOcertificateprice(meanvalue)€tCOExchangerate€US$)Somefiguresprovisional)Totalimportanduseofimportcoaldifferowingtoinventorymovements)BoardofDirectorsVDKiChairmanDrErichSchmitzEONKraftwerkeGmbH,Hannover,GermanyDirkSchmidtHolzmannTERVALsa,Liège,BelgiumViceChairmanReinhardSeifertHCCHanseaticCoalCokeTradingGmbH,Hamburg,GermanyManfredTrübenbachVattenfallEuropeWärmeAG,Hamburg,GermanyDrIngoBatzelThyssenKruppSteelAG,Essen,GermanyRainerWingeSüdzuckerAGMannheimOchsenfurt,Mannheim,GermanyDrWolfgangCieslikEvonikSteagGmbH,Essen,GermanyHolgerEichentopfOxbowCoalGmbH,Duisburg,GermanyBertLagendijkLBHNetherlandsBV,Rhoon,TheNetherlandsManagingDirector:DrWolfgangRitschelAnIntroductoryWordIn,companiesusingcoalinGermanyonceagainimportedaboutmilliontofsteamcoal,cokingcoalandcoke,maintainingthehighimportlevelofthepreviousyearImportscoveredmorethanofthehardcoaldemandoftheGermaneconomyAlthoughtotaldemandforhardcoaldeclinedbyalmostmilliontfromto,importsremainedstablebecauseGermanproductionfellbyaboutmilliontThebordercrossingpriceforsteamcoalrosebyfrom€TCEto€TCEinButasanaveragefortheyear,thepriceadvantageoverthecompetingfossilenergysourcesoilandgasimprovedinTheadvantageofimportcoal:•Wellstructuredgeopoliticalsupply•Constantexpansionofsupplysources•Priceswhichcontinuetobelow•Lowtransportanddeliveryrisk•LargepotentialforthepreventionofCObyupgradingcoalfiredpowerplantsbybyusingCCStechnologyfromonwardsThemodernisationcampaignintheGermanhardcoalfiredgenerationofelectricpowerwillreduceCOemissionsbymorethanbytheyearHardcoalremainedthefastestgrowingfossilprimaryenergysourceintheworldinOutputroseinbymillionttobilliontonnesSeaborneworldtradeinhardcoalrosebymilliontortomilliont,butgrowthdynamicsbegantoslacken,aboveallinthethquarterofInthelongterm–until–theIEAseesanincreaseintheshareofhardcoalinprimaryenergysupplyfortheworldfromtoday'sto,whiletheshareofcoalusedinelectricpowergenerationwillincreasefromacurrenttoTheworldwillnotbeabletodowithoutcoalforthenextyearsAdecisivestepinpreservingtheworldclimatewillbesecuringthecommitmentofthelargecoalconsumersChina,USA,India,SouthAfricaandRussiatoaclimateprotectiontreatyattheclimateconferenceinCopenhageninDecemberCoalimportswereonlymoderatelyaffectedbytheglobaleconomiccrisisinHowever,thecollapseincrudesteelproductionandthethrottlingofproductioninmanyindustrialsectorscouldcauseadeclineinimportsofinGeneralGlobalEconomicConditionsEconomicGrowthWorldPopulationEnergyConsumptionHardCoalOutputCoalReservesHardCoalWorldMarketSteamCoalMarketCokingCoalMarketFreightRatesEnergyPoliciesEnvironmentalPoliciesEuropeanUnionEconomicGrowthEnergyConsumptionHardCoalMarketEnergyPoliciesGermanyEconomicGrowthEnergyConsumptionHardCoalMarketEnergyPoliciesHardCoalfiredGenerationofElectricPowerOutlookfortheWorldCoalMarketWorldTradeWorldCoalMarketOverallSteamCoalMarketCokingCoalMarketInfrastructureoftheHardCoalWorldTradeMarketConcentrationCoalGasificationandLiquefactionContentsCountryReportsAustraliaIndonesiaRussiaColombiaRepublicofSouthAfricaUSAPeople'sRepublicofChinaCanadaVietnamVenezuelaPolandCzechRepublicOverviewinTablesGlossaryInstitutionsLinksMembersofVDKiBoardofDirectorsVDKiGENERALGLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSEconommicGrowthstillpositiveinAlthoughtheworldeconomyremainedonapathofgrowthin,theoverallpositivedevelopmentwasattributablesolelytothefirsthalfoftheyearThethquarterofsawasignificantdeclineinworldeconomicactivitiesandworldtradeTheglobalfinancialcrisisisbeingfeltmoreandmorestronglybytherealeconomy,andthedurationandextentoftheeconomicdownturnishardtopredictatthistimeThespreadofglobalisationandinterlinkingofallnationaleconomiesdraggedalloftheeconomicregionsintoadownwardspiralStartingfromtheUSA,thesharpdropsindemandspreadtotheEUandthethresholdcountries,leadingtorestrictionsinproductionaccrosstheboardaroundtheglobeataspeedneverseenbeforeAsaconsequence,thepricesforrawmaterialsandfreightratesplungedinthelastquarterofThecourseofglobaleconomiceventsisexpectedtobeextraordinarilydifficultinIndustrialisedandthresholdcountriesarestrivingtocounteractthecollapseindemandbyinitiatingmassiveeconomicaidprogrammesThedecisivefactorwillpresumablybe,whetherpurchasingpowerclimbsagainintheUSAandtheAsianthresholdcountrieswhichwillbolsterabovealltheEU,ChinaandJapanintheirexportsAdeclineinworldproductionoftoispredictedforworldtradeisexpectedtosufferasubstantiallysharperdeclineEstimatesrangefromtoWorldpopulationwillGrowtoBillioninThegreatestdrivingforcefortheexpandingworldeconomyandtheglobalconsumptionofenergycontinuestobetheincreasingsizeoftheworld'spopulationItisgrowinginthedevelopingcountriesmorethananywhereelseOnaverage,theworldpopulationisincreasingbyormillionpeopleannuallybnpeopleIndustrializedCountriesDevelopingCountriesDevelopmentofWorldPopulation)OECDCountriesGrowthRatesinoftheWorldEconomyWorldProductionWorldTradeSource:IEAExtrapolationofthefiguresindicatesthatworldpopulationwillincreasebyalmostbilliontobillionpeopleintheperiodfromto,ie,duringaperiodofyearsButenergyconsumptionisincreasingevenfaster–annuallyaccordingtothelatestreferencescenariofromtheIEA(WorldEnergyOutlook)–becausethespecificpercapitaconsumptionisrisinginadditiontothepopulationfiguresthemselvesInadditiontotheincreaseduseofenergyconsumingdevices,thesteadyshiftfromruraltourbanpopulationsaroundtheworldisalsocausingariseinenergyconsumptionThethresholdanddevelopingcountrieshaveanenormousbackupdemandinenergyconsumptionastheystrivetoraisetheirlivingstandardstotheleveloftheindustrialisedcountriesButevenin,theoftheworldpopulationlivingintheindustrialisedcountrieswillconsumemorethanoftheworldenergysuppliesorTCEpercapitaaboutoftheworldenergysupplywillgototheinhabitantsofthresholdanddevelopingcountriesmakingupofworldpopulation,butthiswillamounttoonlyTCEpercapitaThisisjustunderoftheenergyconsumptionpercapitaintheindustrialisedcountriesSotherewillbeasignificantbacklogofdemandforimprovementinthelivingstandardsofmostoftheworld'spopulationevenafterThesefiguresmakeitclearwhythresholdanddevelopingcountriesarecurrentlyunabletojointheEuropeanindustrialisedcountriesinrealisingthelatter'sideasforsavingenergyandreducinggreenhousegasemissionsSatisfyingthebasicneedsoftheircitizensforfood,water,mobilityandaccesstoelectricpowerfortheimprovementoflivingstandardseventoamodestlevelremainstheirtoppriorityEnergyconsumptioncontinuestoriseTheworldenergyconsumptioncontinuedtoriseinHowever,thegrowthrateslowedtofrominThePacificregionremainstheareawiththemostrapidgrowthBesidestheincreaseinitsownenergyproduction,theareaismakingincreasinguseofthesuppliesontheworldmarketThelowerconsumptioninthethquarterofisreflectedintheslowergrowthrateofenergyconsumptioninOilconsumptionfellslightlyPrimaryEnergyConsumptioninBillionTCE–MostImportantEnergySources–ChangeCoalNaturalgasPetroleum–NuclearenergyHydroelectricpowerTotalSource:BP,ownestimateforProportionofWorldPopulationinCitiesinBillionsMrdMrdMrdWorldPopulationUrbanPopulationProportionofWorldPopulationSource:IEAEnvironmentReportCoal(hardcoalandlignite)reachedaworldmarketshareofinandhasbeenthefastestgrowingprimaryenergysourceforseveralyearsCoalconsumptionrosebyinTheIEA,whichalsotakesbiomassandrenewableenergysourcesintoaccountinitsstatistics,predictsanaverageincreaseintheconsumptionofprimaryenergyofannuallyforthelongterminitsreferencescenarioYetfossilenergysources–despitetheacceleratedexpansionofrenewableenergysources–willhavetocoverofthegrowthuntilAccordingtodatafromtheIEA,thedemandforcoalwillrisebyintheperiodfromtoandwillmaintainitsshareofoftheworld'sprimaryenergydemandCoalconsumptionwillaccordinglyrisebybillionTCEfrombillionTCEintobillionTCEinThefactthatthegreatestshareofthelongtermincreaseincoalconsumptionwillbefortheelectricpowersectormakesitallthemorenecessarytodevelopmodernhardcoaltechnologieswithlessimpactontheclimateItwillnotbepossibletoreducetheCOemissionsofthecountrieswhoseelectricpowergenerationisbasedprimarilyPrimaryEnergyConsumptionSource:BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergyOilCoalGasNuclearHydroTotal:BillionTCESource:IEA,EnergyOutlook)BillionTCEBillionTCEBillionTCEBillionTCEBillionTCECoalOilGasNuclearenergyHydroelectricpowerBiomassandwasteOtherrenewableenergysourcesTotal)AverageannualgrowthrateWorldEnergyConsumptionReferenceScenarioIEABesidesthecountriesshownabove,substantialquantitiesofcoalarebeingminedintheAsianregioninNorthKorea,MongoliaandNewZealandTheincrediblebacklogdemandforenergyintheAsianeconomiesforimprovementoflivingconditionscanbecovered,aboveallinChinaandIndia,onlybygreatlyexpandingtheconsumptionandproductionofcoalButalternativeenergysources–fromrenewableenergytonuclearenergy–willalsoberequiredtokeeppacewiththedynamicdevelopmentofdemandForexample,coalconsumptioninChinawillincreasefrombillionttodaytobilliontyearinonlyafewyears()OutsideoftheAsianboomzone,developmentsinhardcoaloutputvariedOutputinNorthAmericaincreasedslightlyasdomesticdemandforsteamcoalstagnated,butexportsroseUSminingcompaniesintheAppalachiancoalfieldswerefindingitincreasinglydifficulttoobtainpermitsfor"TopMountain"miningoncoalwithouttheutilisationofCCStechnologyThesecountriesincludeChina,theUSA,India,Russiaand,moreandmore,otherAsiancountriesDespitehighgrowthrates,energysourceslargelyfreeofCOemissions,includingnuclearpower,willachieveashareofonlyby,whilefossilenergysourceswillstillcoverashareofoftheworld'senergyneedsThisdemonstratesthatallenergysourceswillberequiredifwearetocomeevenclosetosatisfyingdemandHardCoalOutputrisestoBilliontonnesIn,theworldhardcoaloutputincreasedonceagainandrosebyaboutmillionttoaboutbilliontonnesTotaloutputbreaksdownintobilliontofsteamcoalandbilliontofcokingcoalSince,ie,inthelastyears,worldhardcoaloutputhasgrownbybilliontThemajorforcebehindthisdevelopmentistobefoundinChina,whereoutputduringthisperiodwasincreasedbybilliontButothercountrieshavealsoincreasedproductionsignificantlyThemajorpartoftheworldwidegrowthoriginatesfromAsia,asthedevelopmentsofrecentyearsshow:Source:IEA,provisionalHardCoalOutputofImportantCountriesinthePacificRegioninMilliontProducingcountriesChina,,,IndiaAustraliaIndonesiaVietnamTotal,,,MilltSteamCoalCokingCoal,,,,,,,,,,,,WorldHardCoalProductionSource:IEA,preliminaryCanadaincreaseditshardcoaloutput,whichisprimarilyorientedforexport,inviewofthesoliddemandforcokingcoalandPCIcoalInSouthAmerica,ColombiasteadilyexpandeditsoutputandovertookSouthAfricainexportSmallerdepositsofcokingcoalattractedgrowingattentioninColombiaProductioninVenezuela,ontheotherhand,stagnatedThegovernmenthaslimitedoutput–intheZuliaProvince,atleast–tomilliontperyearStrikesandbadweathercontributedtothisdeclineRussiacontinuedtoincreaseoutputProductionstagnatedinSouthAfricaHowever,thereishopethatthemanyBEE(BlackEconomicEmpowerment)groupswillmakeuseoftheminingrightswhichhavebeenawardedtothemandbegincoalproductionNewcoalprojectsarebeingexaminedinMozambique,BotswanaandZimbabweaswellas,mostrecently,onMadagascarProjectsinBotswanaandMozambiquearealreadyatamoreadvancedstageOutputintheEuropeanregion(EU)declinedfurtherfrommilliontintomilliontinThegreatestdeclineofmillionteachwasseeninPolandandinGermanyHowever,thesharpriseinpricesforoilandnaturalgasaswellasforcoalinimprovedthecompetitivenessofmanyEuropeancoaldepositsNonetheless,aweakeningofthecompetitivepositionmustbeexpectedinasaconsequenceofthesubstantialdeclineinworldmarketpricesTheIEApredictsanexpansionofworldhardcoaloutputtobillionTCEorbilliont(t=t)byMostofthisgrowthwilloccurinAsia,buttherewillalsobesomeinNorth,CentralandSouthAmericaandtheCIScountriesEuropeanhardcoalconsumptionisfallingandwilldeclinetoashareoflessthanoftheworldcoalconsumptionbyEmissionsofCOwilldecreasecorrespondinglyCoalreservesadequateforyearsOnehastodistinguishbetweenthetwoterms“resources”and“reserves”whenspeakingaboutnaturalresources,includingcoalResourcesrefertothetotalsubstanceinthemineralorcoalfoundinadepositThereservesarethepartthereofwhichcanbeverifiedunquestionablyandwhichcanbeminedefficientlyusingtoday'stechnologyAscoalpricesrise,itispossibleforpartsoftheresourcesindepositstobeattributedtoreservesbecauseitmaybecomeeconomicallyfeasibletoprofitablymineTheLargestCoalProducersintheWorldCompanyMilltMilltMilltCoalIndiaPeabody)ShenhuaRioTintoArch)BHPBAngloChinaCoalSUEKXstrata)OwnproductionandpurchasesSource:TheMcCloskeyGroup,ownprojectionsCoalreservescurrentlyhaveastatisticalreachofaboutyearsbasedonanoutputofbilliont(base)Hardcoalrepresentsashareofofthetotalreservesof,billionTCEinfossilenergysourcesandnuclearfuelintermsoftheresourcesof,billionTCE,thesharereachesComparedwithhardcoal,oilreservesareadequateonlyforyears,gasreservesforyears,assumingthecurrentrateofproductionHardcoalWorldMarketgrowstoMilliontonnesGeneralMarketTendenciesThehardcoalworldmarketgrewbymilliontortomilliontin,supportedbyastrongupswingintheworldeconomyandsteelindustryWorldtradeincoaldevelopedasshownbelow:thesepartsofthedepositsWhenpricesfall,ontheotherhand,theminingofsomedepositsmaybecomealosingpositioneconomicallyThecurrentestimatesofthehardcoalreservesbasedonwhatisnowknownabouttheeconomicallyminablereservesworldwide(seetable)showafigureofbilliont,correspondingtoaboutbillionTCEThislatestestimatecomesfromtheFederalInstituteforGeosciencesandNaturalResources(BGR)TheBGRestimateshardcoalresourcesintobe,billiontTheratioofresourcestoreservescomestotoandhassubstantiallyimprovedsincethelastestimate()bytheBGR(:)becausethevolumeofresourceshasmorethandoubledReservesandOutputofHardCoalAccordingtoRegionRegionReservesOutputasperBilliontMilliontEuropeCISAfricaNorthAmerika,SouthAmerikaPRChina,RestofAsiaOtherAustraliaNewZealandTotal,

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2009全球煤炭的报告

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