nullnullAn Overview....Not a lot of Details!!null6 Overview “Six Sigma” If we can’t express what we know in the form of numbers,
we really don’t know much about it.
If we don’t know much about it, we can’t control it.
If we can’t control it, we are at the mercy of chance. Mikel J. Harry
President & CEO
Six Sigma Academy, Inc.A Rigorous Method for Measuring & Controlling Our Quality
“...will bring GE to a whole new level of quality in a fraction of the
time it would have taken to climb the learning curve on our own.”John F. Welch, Jr.
1995 GE Annual Reportnull6 Overview What Does “Sigma” Mean? Sigma is a Measure of the Consistency of a ProcessIt (is Also the 18th Letter in the Greek Alphabet!Why Does GE Need A Quality Initiative?Why Does GE Need A Quality Initiative?GE Raising The Bar
New Goal to be “Best in the World” vs. #1 or #2
Customers are Expecting More, we Must Deliver
“Ship-and-fix” Approach no Longer Tolerated in the Market
Aim to Speed Past Traditional Competitors in 5 Years
Goal Consistent with Reduced Total Costs
We Must Acknowledge Our Vulnerabilities
Poor Quality That Impacts Customers
Problems with NPI
Too High Internal Costs6 Overview We Need a Major Initiative to Move From
Where we Are to Where we Want to benull6 Overview Why Does GE Need A Quality Initiative?40%35%30%25%20%10%15% 5%Cost of Failure (% of Sales)Defects per Million3.4233621066,807308,537500,000Sigma654321 Estimated Cost of Failure in US Industry is 15% of Sales; Taking
GE From a 3 to a 6 Company Will Save ~ $10.5 Billion per Year!Why “Six Sigma”?Why “Six Sigma”?Proven Successful in “Quality-Demanding” Industries e.g.,
Motorola, Texas Instruments (many process steps in series)
Proven Method to Reduce Costs
Highly Quantitative Method – Science and Logic Instead of Gut Feel
Includes Manufacturing & Service (close to customer) and Provides Bridge to Design for Quality Concepts
Has Support and Commitment of Top ManagementIt Works!!!null6 Overview 6 is Several Orders of Magnitude Better Than 3!!!Sigma: A Measure of Qualitynull6 Overview Where Does “Six Sigma” Come From? Mikel J. Harry one of the Original Architects
Previously Headed Quality Function at ABB and Motorola
Now President/CEO of Six Sigma Academy in Phoenix, Arizona
Has Consulted for Texas Instruments, Allied Signal (and others)
Currently Retained by GE to Teach the Implementation,
Deployment and Application of Six Sigma Concepts & Tools Learning from Those Who Have had Success
With 6Will Accelerate its Implementation at GEnull6 Overview So...What is Six Sigma?“THE SIX SIGMA BREAKTHROUGH STRATEGY”null6 Overview How Do We Arrive at Sigma?Measuring & Eliminating Defects is the “Core” of Six SigmaMeasurement SystemIdentify the CTQsLook for Defects
in Products or
Services “Critical to Quality”
Characteristics or
the Customer
Requirements for a
Product or Service Count Defects
or failures to
meet CTQ
requirements in
all process steps Define Defect
Opportunities Any step in the
process where a
Defect could occur
in a CTQ Arrive at DPMO Use the SIGMA
TABLEConvert DPMO to
Sigma Defects Per Million
Opportunities2
3
4
5
6308,537
66,807
6,210
233
3.4PPM Defects per
Million of
Opportunity Sigma
Levelnull6 Overview Measurement System2
3
4
5
6308,537
66,807
6,210
233
3.4PPM SIGMA
LEVEL DEFECTS per
MILLION
OPPORTUNITYIRS Tax AdviceBest CompaniesAirline SafetyAverage CompanyGE Average Company in 3 to 4Range Some Sigma “Benchmarks” null6 Overview Measurement SystemA Graphic/Quantitative Perspective on VariationAverage ValueMany Data Sets Have a Normal or Bell ShapeNumber of
People
Arriving
at CRDTime7:00 7:15 7:30 7:45 8:00 8:15 8:30 8:45 9:00 9:15null6 Overview Problem Solving Approach 6Helps us Identify and Reduce VARIATION due to:
- Insufficient Process Capability
- Unstable Parts & Materials
- Inadequate Design MarginnullTargetUSLLSLTargetUSLLSLTargetUSLLSLCenter
ProcessReduce
SpreadOff-TargetUnpredictableOn-Target6 Overview Problem Solving Approach“Lower Specification Limit” “Upper Specification Limit”Less Variation Means Fewer Defects & Higher Process Yields null6 Overview Problem Solving ApproachKey Components of “BREAKTHROUGH STRATEGY” Identify CTQ &
CTP (Critical to
Process) Variables
Do Process
Mapping
Develop and
Validate Measurement
Systems Benchmark and
Baseline Processes
Calculate Yield
and Sigma
Target Opportunities
and Establish
Improvement Goals
Use of Pareto Chart
& Fishbone Diagrams Use Design of
Experiments
Isolate the
“Vital Few” from the
“Trivial Many”
Sources of Variation
Test for Improvement
in Centering
Use of Brainstorming
and Action Workouts
Set up Control
Mechanisms
Monitor Process
Variation
Maintain “In Control”
Processes
Use of Control
Charts and
Procedures A Mix of Concepts and Tools Will Also Integrate with NPI Processnull6 Overview Disciplined Change ProcessA New Set of QUALITY MEASURES Customer Satisfaction
Cost of Poor Quality
Supplier Quality
Internal Performance
Design for Manufacturability Will Apply to Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing
Processes and be Tracked & Reported by Each Businessnull6 Overview Structure6 Projects with the GE Businessesnullnullnull
Tabulation of GE Six Sigma ResultsnullBenefit Target & UpdateCurrent benefits level @ 10.865 MMQPID loading :
Carryover from 1999 : 4.059
Completed Projects 2000 : 3.313
Active Projects 2000 : 3.285
Total : 10.865 MMnullnull Key Concepts & Tools
6 Overview null6 Overview Changing Focus From Output to Process Identifying and Fixing Root Causes
Will Help us Obtain the Desired Outputf (X)Y =nullProcess Capability6 Overview Sustained Capability
of the
Process
(long term)USLTInherent Capability
of the
Process
(short term)LSLTargetOver Time, a “Typical” Process Will Shift and Drift by Approximately 1.5null6 Overview “Short Term Centered” versus “Long Term Shifted”Six Sigma CenteredLSLT Process
Capability.001 ppm.001 ppm+6 LSLUSLT3.4 ppmSix Sigma Shifted 1.5 Process
CapabilityHigher Defect Yield in Long Term Process Capability than Short Term Process Capability -6 null6 Overview Tying it All TogethershiftCDAB0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.51 2 3 4 5 6C
O
N
T
R
O
LPOORGOODTECHNOLOGYPOORGOODshort termProblem Could be Control, Technology or Bothnull6 Overview Short Term CapabilityShort Term Capability Ratio(Cp)Cp = LSL-6USL Example6 3.0-( - 3.0Cp =Cp =1LSLUSL2.5 0.53.0Process Mean TTargetA 3 Process The Potential Performance of a Process, if it Were on Targetnull6 Overview Long Term Capability (Cpk)Long Term Capability RatioExampleCp =1 (previous chart)Target = -0.5 =0Cpk1 - (-0.5-03 =Cpk =0.83-Off-Target PenaltyThe Potential Performance of a Process, Corrected for an Off-Target MeanLSLUSL2.5 0.53.0Process Mean TTargetA 3 Processnull6 Overview Z - Scale of MeasureZ =A Unit of Measure Equivalent
to the Number of Standard
Deviations that a Value is Away
from the Target Value-3.0-0.53.0Z - Values USLLSL2.50.53.0= Process Mean Z TTarget 0A 3 ProcessnullThe Definitions of Yield First Time Yield (Yft)=Units PassedUnits Tested= 65 70=0.93 Rolled Thruput Yield (Yrt)=(Yield 1)(Yield 2)(Yield 3) . . . . = 91 82 65 70(((())))=0.65100 91 70 82 Normalized Yield (Ynm)==1/n(Yrt)(0.65)1/4=0.89( n: Total Number of Processes ) 6 Overview Yield Exclusive
of ReworkProbability of
Zero DefectsAverage Yield
of All Processesnull6 Overview As the Number of Operations Increases, a High
Rolled Yield Requires a High for Each Operation 5 4 3 6Process Mean Shifted 1.5at Each Operationnull6 Overview Baselining & Benchmarking an Existing Processp (x)DefectsBenchmarkBaseline EntitlementBaselining = Current Process / Benchmarking = Ultimate GoalnullSome Basic 6-Related Tools6 Overview Scatter Diagram Over Slept Car Would
Not StartWeather Family
ProblemsOtherPareto Diagram Frequency
of
OccurenceReasons for Being Late for WorkArrival
Time
at WorkTime Alarm Went OffnullMaterialsPeopleThe Histogram6 Overview Some Basic 6-Related ToolsPlot of Daily Arrival Time 9:157:00 7:15 7:30 7:45 8:00 8:15 8:30 8:45 9:00Average ValueNumber
of
People
Arriving
at CRDTimenull6 Overview LCLUCLRange ChartSome Basic 6-Related ToolsMonitors Changes in Average or Variation Over TimenullDesign of Experiments6 Overview SCREENINGOPTIMIZATIONCHARACTERIZATION For Experiments
Involving a Large
Number of Factors
Useful in Isolating
the “Vital Few “ from
the “Trivial Many” For Experiments
Involving a Relatively
Small Number of Factors
Useful When Studying
Relatively Uncomplicated
Effects & Interactions For Experiments
Involving Only 2
or 3 Factors
Useful When Studying
Highly Complicated
Effects & RelationshipsDOE is More Effective Than Testing One Factor at a Timenull6 Overview Using the “One Factor at a Time” Approach Time of Departure3
2
17:157:307:458:008:15RouteCombination
SelectedThe ResultUse Route 2 and
Leave at 7:15 to Reach Goalnull6 Overview Using “Design of Experiments” (DOE)Time of DepartureDOE (i) Better Accounts for Interactive Variables Missed by “One Factor at a Time”, and (ii) Efficiently Searches for “Sweet Spot” in Parameter SpaceThe Variables Time of Departure from
Home & Route Taken
to WorkThe ResultA Better Combination Allowing 15 More Minutes of Sleep!!!Actual Commuting Time Averages
(minutes)3
2
17:157:307:458:008:15Route17 20 23 21 1915 18 20 19 1612 15 21 20 18 Original
Conclusion Best
Combination
“Sweet Spot”null A Practical Example
(The “Cookbook”)6 Overview null6.....and Baking BreadUsing a 12 Step Process6 Overview nullWhat is Important to the Customer?
Rise
Texture
Smell
Freshness
TasteY = Taste!!6 Overview Measurenull6 Overview How Could We Measure Taste (Y)?
Panel of Tasters
Rating System
of 1 to 10
Target: Average
Rating at 8
Desired: No
Individual Ratings
(“defects”) Below 7
Y = 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 TargetDefectsWorstBestBut.....Is this the Right System?Measurenull6 Overview How Could We Approach This?
Blindfolded Panel Rates
Several Loaf Samples
Put “Repeat” Pieces
from Same Loaf in
Different Samples
Consistent Ratings* on
Pieces from Same
Loaf = “Repeatability”
Consistent Ratings* on
Samples Across the
Panel = “Reproducibility”
“Repeatability” &“Reproducibility” Suggest Valid Measurement Approach Panel
Member Loaf 1 Loaf 2 Loaf 3 A 5 8 9
B 4 9 1
C 4 9 2
D 8 9 8
E 4 8 2
F 5 9 1
G 8 9 2* Within One Taste UnitMeasurenull6 Overview This is a 3 Process!7 Defects (ratings below 7)24 Ratings (from our panel)=.292292,000 Defects per
1,ooo,ooo LoavesORAnalyzeHow Do We Approach This?
Bake Several Loaves
Under “Normal”
Conditions
Have Taster Panel
Again Do the Rating
Average Rating is 7.4
But Variation is
too Great for a 6 Processnull6 Overview How do we Define Improvement?
Benchmark the
Competition
Focus on Defects
( i.e. taste rating < 7)
Determine What
is an “Acceptable
Sigma Level”
Set Improvement
Objectives
Accordingly
Maybe a 5 Process Will Suffice!1,000,000 -
100,000 - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10,000 - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1,000 - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
100 - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10 - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1 - 2 3 4 5 6 7 “BETTER BREAD”
Baking Process Best
Competitor Range for
Improvement Defects
Per MillionSigma ScaleAnalyzenull6 Overview How do we Determine the Potential Sources of Variation (Xs)?
Have the Chefs Brainstorm
Some Likely Ones Might be:
- Amount of Salt Used
- Brand of Flour
- Baking Time
- Baking Temperature
- Brand of Yeast
Multiple Sources: Chefs, Suppliers, ControlsAnalyzenull6 Overview How do we Screen for Causes of Variation (Xs)?
Design an Experiment
Use Different Sources
of Potential Variation
Have Panel Rate
the Bread Used in
the Experiment
Results Lead to the
“Vital Few” CausesSourceConclusionNegligibleMajor CauseNegligibleMajor CauseNegligibleFocus on The “Vital Few”Improvenull6 Overview How do we Find the Relationship Between the “Vital Few” (Xs) and Taste (Y)?
Conduct a More Detailed Experiment
Focus: Oven Temperature from 325
to 375 and 3 Brands of Flour
RUN# TEMP BRAND
1 325 A
2 325 B
3 325 C
4 350 A
5 350 B
6 350 C
7 375 A
8 375 B
9 375 CImprove Note: Time is a Factor
Only if Temperature
Changes Significantlynull6 Overview But.....Is Our Measurement System Correct?Improvenull6 Overview How Could We Approach This?
Need to Verify the
Accuracy of Our
Temperature Gauges
Need for “Benchmark”
Instrumentation for
Comparison
Rent Some Other
“High End” Gauges
Compare the ResultsVerify that our Instruments are AccurateControlnull6 Overview How Could We Approach This?
Check A Number
of Ovens
Monitor Temperatures
Over Time
Focus on the
Process Capability
Look for Degree of
VariationVariation OK But...Average is High (and the algorithm should be checked)Controlnull6 Overview What do we do Going Forward?
Check Ovens Daily
for Temperature Levels
Audit Usage Frequency
of Alternative Flour
Supplier (e.g., Brand C)
Periodically Reassemble
the Panel to Test Taste
Chart the ResultsAnd.....Plot the Data Over Time354
353
352
351
350
349
348 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25Control
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