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亚厦股份(002375)新股询价报告—高端公共装饰、住宅装饰市场劲旅

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亚厦股份(002375)新股询价报告—高端公共装饰、住宅装饰市场劲旅 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010ᑈ 3᳜ 8᮹ ݀ৌⷨおgᓎㄥᎹ⿟㸠Ϯ Ѯॺ㙵ӑ˄002375˅ᮄ㙵䆶Ӌ᡹ਞ 催催ッ݀݅㺙佄ǃԣᅙ㺙佄Ꮦഎࢆᮙ� 佪⃵᡹ਞ� ড়⧚Ԅؐऎ䯈˖31.5~37.0ܗ/㙵 ᓎ䆂䆶Ӌऎ䯈˖27.0~31.5ܗ/㙵 ᡩ䌘㽕⚍ Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 � � ᓎㄥ㺙佄㸠Ϯ啭༈ӕϮDŽ݀ ৌЏ㧹ϮࡵЎ݀݅ᓎㄥ㺙佄䆒䅵ϢᮑᎹǃᓎㄥᐩ ๭ⱘ䆒䅵ϢᮑᎹǃԣᅙ㊒㺙ׂ੠Ꮉॖ࣪㺙佄䜡༫ѻક⫳ѻㄝDŽ݀ৌ䖲ᑈԡሙ Ё೑ᓎㄥ㺙佄㸠ϮⱒᔎӕϮ㄀Ѡˈ೼䪕䏃ǃᴎഎᅶキㄝ෎ᓎ㺙佄Ꮦഎҹঞ催 ッ᯳㑻䜦ᑫ㺙佄Ꮦഎ݋໛...

亚厦股份(002375)新股询价报告—高端公共装饰、住宅装饰市场劲旅
䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010ᑈ 3᳜ 8᮹ ݀ৌⷨおgᓎㄥᎹ⿟㸠Ϯ Ѯॺ㙵ӑ˄002375˅ᮄ㙵䆶Ӌ᡹ਞ 催催ッ݀݅㺙佄ǃԣᅙ㺙佄Ꮦഎࢆᮙ� 佪⃵᡹ਞ� ড়⧚Ԅؐऎ䯈˖31.5~37.0ܗ/㙵 ᓎ䆂䆶Ӌऎ䯈˖27.0~31.5ܗ/㙵 ᡩ䌘㽕⚍ Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 � � ᓎㄥ㺙佄㸠Ϯ啭༈ӕϮDŽ݀ ৌЏ㧹ϮࡵЎ݀݅ᓎㄥ㺙佄䆒䅵ϢᮑᎹǃᓎㄥᐩ ๭ⱘ䆒䅵ϢᮑᎹǃԣᅙ㊒㺙ׂ੠Ꮉॖ࣪㺙佄䜡༫ѻક⫳ѻㄝDŽ݀ৌ䖲ᑈԡሙ Ё೑ᓎㄥ㺙佄㸠ϮⱒᔎӕϮ㄀Ѡˈ೼䪕䏃ǃᴎഎᅶキㄝ෎ᓎ㺙佄Ꮦഎҹঞ催 ッ᯳㑻䜦ᑫ㺙佄Ꮦഎ݋໛㒱ᇍӬ࢓DŽᡓ᥹䖛Ϟ⍋ϪमЁᖗǃҎ⇥໻Ӯූ⌭∳ ख़ǃ࣫Ҁ佪䛑೑䰙ᴎഎ೑ᆊܗ佪ϧᴎὐ䌉ᆒ᥹ᕙख़ㄝҷ㸼乍Ⳃˈঞ Four SeasonsǃBanyanǃMarriottǃInterContinentalǃHyattǃStarwoodǃShangri-La ㄝϪ⬠ࠡ 10 ໻乊㑻ક⠠䜦ᑫ೼ݙⱘ催ッ᯳㑻䜦ᑫ㺙ׂᎹ⿟DŽ � ජᏖ࣪䖯⿟ঞ⍜䌍छ㑻ᏺࡼ㸠Ϯ催ッᏖഎ䖯ܹ⟚থ៤䭓ᳳDŽⳂࠡ೑ݙ㺙佄Ꮦ എᑈ䳔∖䍙䖛 2 ϛғܗˈ乘䅵᳾ᴹ޴ᑈᓎㄥ㺙佄Ꮦഎᆍ䞣ᇚҹ 15%~20%ⱘ 䗳ᑺ๲䭓 㗠ˈ݊Ёⱘ催ッᏖഎᆍ䞣ᇚ᳝᳈ᖿⱘ๲䭓DŽⳂࠡ㸠Ϯ CR4ҙЎˍ%ˈ Ԛ䱣ⴔᏖഎ䳔∖ક䋼ᦤछˈ㸠Ϯ啭༈ϞᏖ݀ৌᏖഎऴ᳝⥛ᇚᰒ㨫ᦤछDŽ � ࢳᡩ乍Ⳃѻ㛑ᦤछᇚᰒ㨫ᦤछϮ㒽DŽ݀ৌ㺙佄䚼ӊ˄᳼ࠊક˅ࢳᡩ乍Ⳃ䖒ѻ ८ѻ㛑ᇚᠽ໻ 25 סˈᓎㄥᐩ๭ঞ㡖㛑䮼に㞾㒭⥛໻ᐙᦤ催ˈ݀ৌᮑᎹ乍Ⳃ Ꮉᳳᑇഛৃҹ㓽ⷁ 15%̚30% 乍˗Ⳃ䌘䞥੠乍Ⳃ㒣⧚ⱘ਼䕀⥛гৃⳌᑨᦤ催 15%̚30%ˈҢ㗠ֱ䆕݀ৌ᳝䌘䞥੠ᅲ࡯ᡓ᥹᳈໮ⱘϮࡵᎹ⿟ˈᦤ催݀ৌ㧹 ϮᬊܹDŽৠᯊ⬅Ѣ໪ࣙ↨䞡ϟ䰡Ѻᇚᏺᴹ↯߽⥛ⱘᰒ㨫ϞछDŽ � ϝᆊ㺙佄ϞᏖ݀ৌЁѮॺ㙵ӑⲜ߽㛑࡯᳔ᔎDŽሑㅵѮॺ㙵ӑ䆒䅵ᬊܹ↨䞡ϡ 催ˈԚ↯߽⥛Ϣ䞥㶇㵖᥹䖥ˈᰒ㨫催Ѣ⋾⍯㙵ӑ˗Ϩ⬅Ѣ㗕ᅶ᠋ಲ༈⥛催䖒 55ˁˈৠᯊϮࡵഄඳ䕗Ў䲚Ёˈ݀ৌㅵ⧚䌍⫼⥛੠䫔ଂ䌍⫼⥛䕗Ԣˈ݀ৌޔ ߽⍺⥛ᰒ㨫催Ѣ䞥㶇㵖ǃ⋾⍯㙵ӑϸᆊ݀ৌ˗ᬊܹ๲䭓г᳈Ўᑇ〇ᖿ䗳DŽ � 亢䰽಴㋴DŽᑨᬊᏤℒಲᬊ亢䰽˗ᅲ䰙᥻ࠊҎ᥻ࠊ亢䰽˗ㅵ⧚亢䰽DŽ � Ⲝ߽乘⌟ǃԄؐঞᡩ䌘ᓎ䆂˖ḍ᥂៥ӀⲜ߽῵ൟⱘ⌟ㅫˈ݀ৌ 2010ǃ2011 ੠ 2012ᑈথ㸠᨞㭘ৢ↣㙵ᬊⲞߚ߿Ў 1.05ܗǃ1.61ܗ੠ 2.51ܗˈޔ߽⍺໡ ড়๲䭓⥛䖒 59ˁDŽ៥Ӏ DCF῵ൟԄؐ㒧ᵰЎ 31ܗˈ㒧ড়ᔧࠡ A㙵Ꮦഎৃ ↨݀ৌԄؐ⦄⢊˄2010ᑈ 37ס PE˅ˈ ঞ㗗㰥ࠄⳂࠡЁᇣӕϮᵓᮄ㙵ϞᏖৢ ⳌᇍԄؐ∈ᑇ᱂䘡䕗催ⱘ⦄⢊˄2010ᑈ 42ס PE˅ˈ ៥Ӏ䅸ЎѮॺ㺙佄ⱘѠ 㑻Ꮦഎড়⧚Ԅؐऎ䯈Ў 31.5ܗ̚37.0ܗ ᇍˈᑨ 30̚35ס PE ᓎˈ䆂䆶Ӌऎ䯈 Ў 27.0̚31.5DŽ 乍Ⳃ/ᑈᑺ 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 㧹Ϯᬊܹ(ⱒϛܗ) 1618 2487 4150 6166 8121 ๲䭓⥛ YoY% 19.8 53.7 66.9 48.6 31.7 ޔ߽⍺(ⱒϛܗ) 86 132 222 339 529 ๲䭓⥛ YoY% 21.3 54.7 67.7 52.8 56.1 ↯߽⥛% 15.1 14.8 14.5 14.5 15.6 ޔ䌘ѻᬊⲞ⥛˄ˁ˅ 21.9 25.3 10.0 13.9 18.8 ↣㙵ᬊⲞ(ܗ) 0.41 0.63 1.05 1.61 2.51 ↣㙵ޔ䌘ѻ˄ܗ˅ 2.47 3.31 10.47 11.60 13.35 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳 ┬ᓎᑇ� Ёֵ䆕ࠌᓎㄥǃᓎᴤ㸠Ϯ佪ᐁߚᵤᏜ ⬉䆱˖021-68766893 䚂ӊ˖pjp@citics.com ᴼ⍯� ⬉䆱˖021-68766932 䚂ӊ˖yangtao@citics.com থ㸠᭄᥂� থ㸠㙵ᴀ˄ϛ㙵˅ 5300.00 থ㸠ৢᘏ㙵ᴀ˄ϛ㙵˅ 21100.00 㙵ᴀ㒧ᵘ� ᑣ 㙵ϰৡ⿄� 1 Ѯॺ᥻㙵᳝䰤݀ৌ ᣕ㙵䞣˄ϛ㙵˅7590 ᣕ㙵↨՟˄ˁ˅35.97% 2 ᓴᴣ࿳ ᣕ㙵䞣˄ϛ㙵˅2760 ᣕ㙵↨՟˄ˁ˅13.08% 3 ϕ⃷⃷ ᣕ㙵䞣˄ϛ㙵˅1587 ᣕ㙵↨՟˄ˁ˅7.52% 4 ᵁᎲⒼ∳ᡩ䌘᥻㙵᳝䰤݀ৌ ᣕ㙵䞣˄ϛ㙵˅770 ᣕ㙵↨՟˄ˁ˅3.65% 5 ⌭∳ғ䛑߯Ϯᡩ䌘᳝䰤݀ৌ ᣕ㙵䞣˄ϛ㙵˅650 ᣕ㙵↨՟˄ˁ˅3.08% 6 ⌭∳໽ූ⸙䈋߯Ϯ䲚ಶ᳝䰤݀ৌঞ䞡 ᑚ೑乎㕂Ϯ᳝䰤݀ৌ ᣕ㙵䞣˄ϛ㙵˅580 ᣕ㙵↨՟˄ˁ˅2.75% 7 ݊Ҫ 7ৡ㞾✊Ҏ㙵ϰ ᣕ㙵䞣˄ϛ㙵˅1863 ᣕ㙵↨՟˄ˁ˅8.83% 8 A㙵݀ӫ㙵ϰ ᣕ㙵䞣˄ϛ㙵˅5300 ᣕ㙵↨՟˄ˁ˅25.12% Ѯॺ㙵ӑ˄002375˅ᮄ㙵䆶Ӌ᡹ਞ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ ⳂⳂ ᔩ Ԅؐঞᡩ䌘ᓎ䆂 .......................................................................................................................................................... 1 ᓎㄥ㺙佄㸠Ϯ啭༈Пϔ .............................................................................................................................................. 1 㸠Ϯὖ㾜Ϣࠡ᱃ .......................................................................................................................................................... 2 ೎ᅮ䌘ѻᡩ䌘ᏺࡼᓎㄥ㺙佄Ϯᖿ䗳๲䭓 .......................................................................................................... 3 ජᏖ࣪䖯⿟ǃ⍜䌍छ㑻ࠎ▔݀݅㺙佄Ϯ䳔∖ .................................................................................................. 4 ԣᅙѻϮ࣪Ўԣᅙ㊒㺙ׂᏖഎᦤկᑓ䯨ࠡ᱃ .................................................................................................. 4 ݀݅ᓎㄥᮄᓎ੠ᬍ䗴֗䖯ᓎㄥᐩ๭Ꮉ⿟䖙䗳থሩ .......................................................................................... 5 㸠Ϯഄԡঞゲѝ࡯ ...................................................................................................................................................... 5 ݐ݋ક⠠ǃᡔᴃǃҎᠡܼᮍԡӬ࢓ .................................................................................................................. 6 䪕䏃ᴎഎᅶキǃ催ッ䜦ᑫ㺙佄㒚ߚᏖഎϔᬃ⣀⾔ .......................................................................................... 7 Ϣ䞥㶇㵖ǃ⋾⍯㙵ӑग़৆㒣㧹ᚙމᇍ↨ߚᵤ .......................................................................................................... 7 ᬊܹ㾘῵Ϣᵘ៤ .................................................................................................................................................. 7 䞥㶇㵖ǃѮॺᬊܹ๲䭓᳈ᖿ .............................................................................................................................. 9 ޔ߽⍺⥛Ѯॺ㙵ӑ᳔催 ...................................................................................................................................... 9 ⋾⍯㙵ӑǃѮॺ㙵ӑᳳ䯈䌍⫼䕗Ԣ ................................................................................................................ 10 㒣㧹ᬜ⥛⋾⍯㙵ӑ᳔Շ .................................................................................................................................... 10 ٓ؎㛑࡯ᇍ↨⋾⍯⬹Ӭ .................................................................................................................................... 11 ݀ৌ᳾ᴹ៤䭓偅ࡼ಴㋴ ............................................................................................................................................ 12 ѻ㛑ᠽᓴ໻໻๲ᔎ䳔∖⍜࣪㛑࡯ .................................................................................................................... 12 䗮䖛㧹䫔㔥㒰ᓎ䆒Ꮧሔܼ೑ ............................................................................................................................ 12 ᄬ೼㙵ᴗ▔ࢅৃ㛑 ............................................................................................................................................ 13 ࢳ䲚䌘䞥ᡩ䌘乍Ⳃߚᵤ ............................................................................................................................................ 13 亢䰽಴㋴ .................................................................................................................................................................... 14 ᑨᬊᏤℒಲᬊ亢䰽 ............................................................................................................................................ 14 ᥻㙵㙵ϰⱘ᥻ࠊ亢䰽 ........................................................................................................................................ 14 㾘῵䖙䗳ᠽᓴᏺᴹⱘㅵ⧚亢䰽 ........................................................................................................................ 14 Ⲝ߽乘⌟ .................................................................................................................................................................... 15 ߚ乍㧹Ϯᬊܹ乘⌟ ............................................................................................................................................ 15 ߚ乍↯߽⥛∈ᑇ乘⌟ ........................................................................................................................................ 15 Ⲝ߽乘⌟㒧䆎 .................................................................................................................................................... 15 ᦦ೒Ⳃᔩ ೒ 1˖থ㸠ৢ݀ৌ㙵ᴗ㒧ᵘ ....................................................................................................................................... 2 ೒ 2˖݀ৌথሩⱘग़৆⊓䴽 ....................................................................................................................................... 2 ೒ 3˖೎ᅮ䌘ѻᡩ䌘ֱᣕ催䗳๲䭓............................................................................................................................ 3 Ѯॺ㙵ӑ˄002375˅ᮄ㙵䆶Ӌ᡹ਞ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ ೒ 4˖㺙佄㸠Ϯᘏѻؐᣕ㓁催䗳๲䭓........................................................................................................................ 3 ೒ 5˖Ё᮹䶽ජᏖ࣪䖯⿟੠乘⌟ ........................................................................................................................... 4 ೒ 6˖Ё೑᠓ഄѻϮ᳜ᑺᡩ䌘ᘏ乱ঞ๲䗳................................................................................................................ 4 ೒ 7˖Ѩ᯳㑻䜦ᑫ᭄䞣ᣕ㓁๲䭓................................................................................................................................ 4 ೒ 8˖ජ䬛ሙ⇥Ҏഛ⍜䌍〇ℹᦤ催............................................................................................................................ 4 ೒ 9˖Ё೑᠓ሟᮄᓔᎹ䴶⿃ৠ↨᳜ᑺ㌃䅵๲䗳........................................................................................................ 5 ೒ 10˖Ё೑᠓ሟᮑᎹ䴶⿃ঞৠ↨๲䗳...................................................................................................................... 5 ೒ 11˖Ѯॺ㙵ӑ 2009ᑈᬊܹᵘ៤ᚙމ.................................................................................................................... 8 ೒ 12˖䞥㶇㵖 2009ᑈϞञᑈᬊܹᵘ៤ᚙމ............................................................................................................ 8 ೒ 13˖⋾⍯㙵ӑ 2009ᑈϞञᑈᬊܹᵘ៤ᚙމ........................................................................................................ 8 ೒ 14˖䞥㶇㵖 2009ᑈϞञᑈᬊܹഄऎᴹ⑤............................................................................................................ 8 ೒ 15˖⋾⍯㙵ӑ 2009ᑈϞञᑈᬊܹഄऎᴹ⑤........................................................................................................ 9 ೒ 16˖Ѯॺ㙵ӑ 2009ᑈᬊܹഄऎᴹ⑤.................................................................................................................... 9 㸼㸼ḐⳂᔩ 㸼 1˖A㙵ৃ↨݀ৌԄؐᚙމ.................................................................................................................................... 1 㸼 2˖䖥ᳳЁᇣᵓϞᏖᮄ㙵থ㸠ϞᏖৢԄؐᚙމ.................................................................................................... 1 㸼 3˖2005̚2010ᑈ៥೑ᓎㄥ㺙佄㸠Ϯথሩᚙމ੠乘⌟ ..................................................................................... 2 㸼 4˖䖥ᳳ䕗໻䔺キᡩ䌘ᓎ䆒ᚙމ............................................................................................................................ 3 㸼 5˖ग़ᑈ᠓ഄѻϮ೎ᅮ䌘ѻᡩ䌘ঞᓎᅝᡩ䌘ᚙމঞ乘⌟ .................................................................................... 5 㸼 6˖Ё೑ᓎㄥ㺙佄ⱒᔎӕϮ 10ᔎ.......................................................................................................................... 6 㸼 7˖೑ݙᓎㄥ㺙佄啭༈ӕϮᚙމ............................................................................................................................ 6 㸼 8˖2008ᑈ㸠Ϯ啭༈ӕϮ㦋༪ᚙމ....................................................................................................................... 6 㸼 9˖Ё೑㺙佄ϮⱒᔎࠡѨᇍ↨................................................................................................................................ 8 㸼 10˖Ѯॺ㙵ӑ 2006ᑈᑺ㟇 2009ᑈᑺ㧹Ϯᬊܹᵘ៤.......................................................................................... 9 㸼 11˖៤䭓ᣛᷛৠϮᇍ↨.......................................................................................................................................... 9 㸼 12˖Ⲝ߽㛑࡯ৠϮᇍ↨ ....................................................................................................................................... 10 㸼 13˖㒣㧹ᬜ⥛ᣛᷛৠϮᇍ↨................................................................................................................................ 10 㸼 14˖㒣㧹ᬜ⥛ᣛᷛৠϮᇍ↨................................................................................................................................ 11 㸼 15˖䌘ᴀ㒧ᵘঞٓ؎㛑࡯ৠϮᇍ↨.................................................................................................................... 11 㸼 16˖ᑨᬊᏤℒᏤ啘ৠϮᇍ↨................................................................................................................................ 11 㸼 17˖乍Ⳃ䖒ѻৢᓎㄥᐩ๭ঞ㡖㛑䮼に⫳ѻ㛑࡯................................................................................................ 12 㸼 18˖Ѯॺ㧹䫔ߚᬃᴎᵘ㸼 ................................................................................................................................... 13 㸼 19˖݀ৌࢳ䲚䌘䞥乍Ⳃᡩ৥................................................................................................................................ 13 㸼 20˖䚼ક䚼ӊᎹॖ࣪⫳ѻ乍ⳂᬜⲞߚᵤ............................................................................................................ 13 㸼 21˖ᓎㄥᐩ๭ঞ㡖㛑䮼にᡩ䌘乍ⳂᬜⲞߚᵤ.................................................................................................... 14 㸼 22˖Ѯॺ㺙佄ߚᵓഫϮࡵᬊܹঞ乘⌟ .............................................................................................................. 15 㸼 23˖Ѯॺ㺙佄ߚᵓഫ↯߽⥛ᚙމঞ乘⌟............................................................................................................ 15 Ѯॺ㙵ӑ˄002375˅ᮄ㙵䆶Ӌ᡹ਞ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010ᑈ 3᳜ 8᮹ 1 ԄԄؐঞᡩ䌘ᓎ䆂 Ѯॺ㺙佄㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌЏ㧹ᓎㄥ㺙佄Ꮉ⿟ⱘᮑᎹ੠䆒䅵ǃᓎㄥᐩ๭ⱘᮑᎹ੠䆒䅵ˈⳂࠡ A 㙵ৃ↨ϞᏖ ݀ৌ᳝䞥㶇㵖Ϣ⋾⍯㙵ӑDŽ 㸼 1˖A㙵ৃ↨݀ৌԄؐᚙމ EPS˄ܗ˅ PE ㅔ ⿄ 㙵Ӌ ˄ܗ˅ 2009 2010E 2011E 2009 2010E 2011E 䞥㶇㵖 37.49 0.95 1.23 1.57 39 31 24 ⋾⍯㙵ӑ 31.20 0.58 0.77 1.45 59 44 24 ᑇഛ 49 37 24 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindǃЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖ḍ᥂ 2010ᑈ 3᳜ 5᮹ᬊⲬӋ੠ Windϔ㟈乘ᳳ䅵ㅫˈ݊Ё䞥㶇㵖 2010ǃ2011ᑈⱘ EPS乘⌟ Windϔ 㟈乘ᳳᯢᰒԢѢЁֵ䆕ࠌ乘⌟ 㸼 2˖䖥ᳳЁᇣᵓϞᏖᮄ㙵থ㸠ϞᏖৢԄؐᚙމ EPS˄ܗ˅ PE ҷⷕ ݀ৌ ᬊⲬӋ ˄ܗ˅ 佪থӋ ˄ܗ˅ Ⳍᇍথ㸠 Ӌ⍼䎠 ˄ˁ˅ 09 10E 11E 09 10E থ㸠Ӌ 10E 002351.SZ ⓿ℹ㗙 38.1 33.5 14 1.04 1.37 36 32 002352.SZ 哢⋄ᮄᴤ 31.2 32 -3 0.78 1.03 40 41 002353.SZ ᵄ⨲㙵ӑ 82.7 59.5 39 2.06 2.91 40 29 002354.SZ ⾥ݩ᳼Ϯ 17.55 12.33 42 0.40 0.57 44 31 002355.SZ ݈⇥䩶೜ 15.48 14.5 7 0.52 0.62 30 28 002356.SZ ⌽ᅕ䖒 37.57 36.5 3 0.98 1.27 38 37 002357.SZ ᆠЈ䖤Ϯ 21.61 14.97 44 0.58 0.62 38 26 002358.SZ Ể⑤⬉⇨ 38.8 26 49 0.91 1.22 43 29 002359.SZ 唤᯳䪕ศ 19.88 16.98 17 0.52 0.67 38 32 002360.SZ ৠᖋ࣪Ꮉ 37.29 23.98 56 0.75 0.89 1.12 50 42 27 002361.SZ ⼲ࠥ㙵ӑ 28.25 17 66 0.48 0.59 0.77 59 48 29 002362.SZ ∝⥟⾥ᡔ 90.25 41.9 115 0.80 1.28 1.84 113 70 33 002363.SZ 䱚෎ᴎẄ 26.38 18 47 0.51 0.65 0.84 52 40 28 002364.SZ Ёᘦ⬉⇨ 48.4 22.35 117 0.61 1.09 1.54 79 44 21 002365.SZ ∌ᅝ㥃Ϯ 43.55 31 40 0.70 1.07 1.37 63 41 29 ഛؐ 44 69 42 30 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindǃЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖ḍ᥂ 2010ᑈ 3᳜ 5᮹ᬊⲬӋ䅵ㅫ ḍ᥂៥ӀⲜ߽῵ൟⱘ⌟ㅫˈ݀ৌ 2010ǃ2011 ੠ 2012 ᑈথ㸠᨞㭘ৢ↣㙵ᬊⲞߚ߿Ў 1.05 ܗǃ1.61 ܗ੠ 2.51ܗˈޔ߽⍺໡ড়๲䭓⥛䖒 59ˁDŽ៥Ӏ DCF῵ൟԄؐ㒧ᵰЎ 31ܗˈ㒧ড়ᔧࠡ A㙵Ꮦഎৃ↨݀ৌԄؐ⦄ ⢊˄2010ᑈ 37ס PE˅ˈ ঞ㗗㰥ࠄⳂࠡЁᇣӕϮᵓᮄ㙵ϞᏖৢⳌᇍԄؐ∈ᑇ᱂䘡䕗催ⱘ⦄⢊˄2010ᑈ 42ס PE˅ˈ៥Ӏ䅸ЎѮॺ㺙佄ⱘѠ㑻Ꮦഎড়⧚Ԅؐऎ䯈Ў 31.5̚37.0ܗ ᇍˈᑨ 30̚35ס PE ᓎˈ䆂䆶Ӌऎ䯈Ў 27.0̚ 31.5ܗDŽ ᓎㄥ㺙佄㸠Ϯ啭༈Пϔ Ѯॺ㙵ӑ㺙佄㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌЏ㧹ᓎㄥ㺙佄Ꮉ⿟ⱘᮑᎹ੠䆒䅵ǃᓎㄥᐩ๭ⱘᮑᎹ੠䆒䅵ˈৠᯊ݋᳝ljᓎㄥ 㺙ׂ㺙佄Ꮉ⿟ϧϮᡓࣙໍ㑻NJǃljᓎㄥᐩ๭Ꮉ⿟ϧϮᡓࣙໍ㑻NJǃljᓎㄥ㺙佄Ꮉ⿟ϧ乍䆒䅵⬆㑻NJǃljᓎㄥ ᐩ๭Ꮉ⿟ϧ乍䆒䅵⬆㑻NJ䌘䋼䆕кˈ೼ᓎㄥ㺙佄ӕϮঞᓎㄥᐩ๭ӕϮЁഛ݋໛᳔催䌘䋼ㄝ㑻ˈᰃЁ೑ᓎㄥ㺙 佄㸠Ϯⱘ啭༈ӕϮˈ⦄ԡሙЁ೑ᓎㄥ㺙佄ӕϮⱒᔎӕϮ㄀Ѡৡ˄㄀ϔৡЎ䞥㶇㵖˅DŽ Ѯॺ㙵ӑ˄002375˅ᮄ㙵䆶Ӌ᡹ਞ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010ᑈ 3᳜ 8᮹ 2 ೒ 1˖থ㸠ৢ݀ৌ㙵ᴗ㒧ᵘ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖݀ৌ䌘᭭ǃЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 2˖݀ৌথሩⱘग़৆⊓䴽 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖݀ৌ䌘᭭ǃЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 㸠㸠Ϯὖ㾜Ϣࠡ᱃ ℹܹ 21 Ϫ㑾ҹᴹˈ೼ᅣ㾖㒣⌢๲䭓ǃජᏖ࣪ࡴ䗳ǃ⍜䌍छ㑻ㄝ䇌໮಴㋴ᏺࡼϟˈᓎㄥ㺙佄㸠Ϯѻؐҹ ᑈഛ 15%ⱘ䗳ᑺ๲䭓ˈ⡍߿ᰃҢ 2005ᑈᓔྟˈ㸠Ϯ䖯ܹᖿ䗳๲䭓ⱘ咘䞥ᳳDŽձ✻ĀकϔѨāᓎㄥ㺙佄Ϯথ ሩⳂᷛˈࠄ 2010 ᑈ៥೑ᓎㄥ㺙佄㸠Ϯ࡯ѝᅲ⦄ᘏѻؐ䕗ĀकѨā᳿ᳳ㗏ϔ⬾ˈᅲ⦄ѻؐ 21000 ғܗˈᑈഛ ๲䭓 15%Ꮊেˈ݊Ё݀݅ᓎㄥ㺙佄㺙ׂᅲ⦄ 6000ғܗˈᑈഛ๲䭓䖒 11%ҹϞ˗ԣᅙ㺙佄㺙ׂᅲ⦄ 15000ғ ܗˈᑈഛ๲䭓䖒 17%ҹϞDŽ 㸼 3˖2005̚2010ᑈ៥೑ᓎㄥ㺙佄㸠Ϯথሩᚙމ੠乘⌟ ऩԡ˖ғܗ � 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E ᓎㄥ㺙佄ᎹϮᘏѻؐ 10000 11500 14100 15500 17774 20328 ๲䭓↨՟ 15.00% 22.61% 9.93% 14.67% 14.37% ݊Ё˖ ݀݅ᓎㄥ㺙佄 4100 4500 5401 7000 7770 8624 ๲䭓↨՟ 10% 20% 29% 11% 11% ԣᅙᓎㄥ㺙佄 5900 7000 8699 8550 10004 11704 ๲䭓↨՟ 19% 24% -1.71% 17% 17% 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё೑ᓎㄥ㺙佄णӮˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 Ѯॺ᥻㙵 ϕ⃷⃷� ᵁᎲⒼ∳ᡩ䌘 ᥻㙵᳝䰤݀ৌ� ᓴᴣ࿳� ⌭∳ғ䛑߯Ϯ ᡩ䌘݀ৌ Ѯॺ㙵ӑ 7.52% 13.08% 3.65% 3.08% 1.66% 8.83% 1.09% ⌭∳໽ූ⸙䈋߯Ϯ ᡩ䌘䲚ಶ᳝䰤݀ৌ ݀ӫ㙵䞡ᑚ೑乎㕂 Ϯ᳝䰤݀ৌ ݊ᅗ � ৡ㞾 ✊Ҏ㙵ϰ 75 % 25% 35.97% 25.12% 1993ᑈ Џ㧹ᓎㄥ㺙佄Ꮉ⿟ⱘ 䆒䅵੠ᮑᎹ 1995ᑈ 1995 ᑈᓩ䖯ᮄ㙵ϰॼ᠓䆒 ໛ॖ 㒘ˈᓎѮॺ㙵ӑ㺙佄䲚 ಶ᳝䰤݀ৌᑊ๲䌘 1993ᑈ 4᳜៤ゟϞ㰲 Ꮦ㺙佄ᅲϮ݀ৌ 2007ᑈ 7᳜ᭈԧব᳈䆒ゟѮॺ㙵ӑ 㺙佄㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌˈ⊼ݠ䌘ᴀ 13800ϛܗ ᬊ䌁Ѯॺᐩ๭ৢ ᇚˈϮࡵ 㣗ೈᠽሩࠄᅸ໪ᐩ๭ǃ䮼 にⱘ䆒䅵ᮑᎹ乚ඳDŽ 2007ᑈ Ѯॺ㙵ӑ˄002375˅ᮄ㙵䆶Ӌ᡹ਞ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010ᑈ 3᳜ 8᮹ 3 ೎೎ᅮ䌘ѻᡩ䌘ᏺࡼᓎㄥ㺙佄Ϯᖿ䗳๲䭓� ⼒Ӯ೎ᅮ䌘ѻᡩ䌘(FAI)ᇍᓎㄥϮথሩ݋᳔᳝Ⳉ᥹ⱘᢝछ԰⫼DŽ1999̚2009 ᑈ䯈ˈFAI ᑈഛ๲䭓⥛催䖒 26.9%ˈ໻㾘῵ⱘ FAIѻ⫳њ໻䞣݀݅㺙佄੠ᓎㄥᐩ๭䳔∖DŽ2008ᑈᑩ೑ᆊ݀Ꮧ 4ϛғᢝݙ䳔ֱ๲䭓ⱘ㒣⌢ ࠎ▔ᬓㄪˈᇚ໻㾘῵݈ᓎঞᬍ䗴෎⸔䆒ᮑㄝᓎ䆒ˈЎᓎㄥ㺙佄ϮᦤկᎼ໻ⱘᏖഎথሩぎ䯈DŽ ೒ 3˖೎ᅮ䌘ѻᡩ䌘ֱᣕ催䗳๲䭓 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% ܼ⼒Ӯ೎ᅮ䌘ѻᡩ䌘ᘏ乱(ғܗ) ๲䗳˄ে䕈˅ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ㒳䅵ሔˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 4˖㺙佄㸠Ϯᘏѻؐᣕ㓁催䗳๲䭓 � 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E2010E 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% ᓎㄥ㺙佄㸠Ϯᘏѻؐ(ғܗ) ๲䗳(ে䕈) 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ㒳䅵ሔˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ҹ䪕䏃䔺キЎ՟ ĀˈकϔѨā䪕䘧䚼㾘ߦׂᓎ 548ᑻᮄᅶキ˄䚼ߚᇚ೼ĀकѠѨāᓎ៤˅ˈ ᓎ៤݁໻ᵶ㒑 ᗻⱘᅶ䖤Ёᖗ੠क໻ऎඳᗻᅶ䖤Ёᖗˈ乘䅵ᘏᡩ䌘㾘῵㑺 1500 ғܗDŽᣝ✻ජᏖㄝ㑻ߚˈⳕӮ㑻ҹϞජᏖᅶ キ 25ᑻˈഄ㑻ජᏖᅶキ 95ᑻˈও㑻ජᏖᅶキ 428ᑻ˗ᣝ✻䪕䏃ㄝ㑻ᴹߚˈ߭ᅶ䖤ϧ㒓㽕ᓎ 158ᑻᅶキˈජ 䰙ᅶキᰃ 83ᑻˈϔ㠀ᑆ㒓ᅶキᰃ 292ᑻDŽⳂࠡ࣫Ҁफキǃ໽⋹キǃ䴦ቯキㄝᏆ㒣ᓎ៤ⱘ᳝ 28ᑻˈ೼ᓎⱘ᳝ 52 ᑻˈࣙᣀᮄ℺∝キǃᮄᑓᎲキǃ㱍ḹキDŽⳂࠡᏆ㒣ਃࡼⱘᮍḜᕕ䲚ǃ໘ѢࠡᳳᎹ԰ⱘ᳝ 210 ໮ᑻ˗Ꮖ㒣 ਃࡼǃࣙᣀ೼ᓎ੠Ꮖ㒣ᓎ៤ⱘ᳝߭ 312ᑻDŽ 㸼 4˖䖥ᳳ䕗໻䔺キᡩ䌘ᓎ䆒ᚙމ キৡ ᡩ䌘乱˄ғܗ˅ ⫼䩶䞣˄ϛৼ˅ キৄ᭄ ࠄথ㒓 ᓎ䆒⢊ᗕ 6໻䏃㔥ᗻᅶ䖤Ёᖗ ࣫Ҁफキ 70 6.5 13 24 ᅠ៤ ᮄᑓᎲキ 130 7.89 15 28 シᎹ ᮄ℺∝キ 51 5.3 11 20 ೼ᓎ˄乘䅵 2010ᑈᅠ៤˅ Ϟ⍋㱍ḹ催䪕キ 49 8 16 30 ೼ᓎ˄乘䅵 2010ᑈᅠ៤˅ 㽓ᅝ☿䔺࣫キ 40 21 18 18 ೼ᓎ˄乘䅵 2010ᑈ 12᳜ᅠ៤˅ ᮄ៤䛑キ 40 - 14 26 ೼ᓎ˄乘䅵 2010ᑈᅠ៤˅ 10Ͼऎඳᗻᅶ䖤Ёᖗ˄જᇨⒼǃ≜䰇ǃ⽣Ꮂǃᯚᯢǃफᅕǃ݄ᎲǃР剕᳼唤᳾᧰䲚˅ 䚥Ꮂϰキ 40 - 16 30 ᕙᓎ ⌢फ㽓ᅶキ 15 - 8 14 ೼ᓎ˄2008-2010˅ फҀफキ 40 - 15 28 ೼ᓎ˄2008-2011˅ ݊Ҫ ᮄ䭓≭キ 28 3.2 13 26 シᎹ ⏅ഇ啭ढᮄキ - - 10 20 ᕙᓎ ᮄ⷇ᆊᑘキ - - 13 24 ᕙᓎˈ໘Ѣ䆒䅵䰊↉ ᵁᎲϰキ 19˄ᠽᓎ˅ - 15 30 ᕙᓎ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 Ԉ䱣ජᏖ࣪䖯⿟ঞҎ⇥⫳⌏∈ᑇⱘᦤ催ˈ៥೑↣ᑈ乘䅵ᇚᮄ๲ࡴ 1200 ғܗҹϞⱘԣᅙ㺙ׂᏖഎˈݡࡴ Ϟ݀݅䆒ᮑᓎ䆒ˈ↣ᑈⱘජᏖ࣪䖯⿟ᇚЎ㺙佄㺙ׂᏖഎᏺᴹ㑺 2000 ғܗⱘᏖഎ๲䞣DŽϢℸৠᯊˈ⬅Ѣ㺙佄 ᴀ䑿㞾✊ⱘ᳈ᮄᤶҷঞݙ㺙ᡬᮻᳳ䕗ⷁˈᄬ䞣Ꮦഎ┰࡯Ꮌ໻DŽϔ㠀ᆒ佚佁ᑫǃݭᄫὐⱘ㺙਼ׂᳳᰃ 6̚8ᑈˈ 㗠စФഎ᠔ǃଚࡵ⫼᠓ⱘ㺙਼ׂᳳ䖬Ӯ᳈ⷁDŽֱᅜᣝ✻ 10ᑈⱘ਼ᳳ䅵ㅫˈ1998ᑈ̚2007ᑈ 10ᑈ䯈ⱘᓎㄥ 㺙佄㸠Ϯᘏᬊܹ᥹䖥 8 ϛғܗˈ಴ℸⳂࠡⱘᄬ䞣Ꮦഎ䚼ߚ↣ᑈᏆ㒣ৃҹᦤկ㑺 8000 ғܗⱘᏖഎ䳔∖DŽ㗠䱣 ⴔජᏖ࣪∈ᑇᦤ催ঞሙ⇥⍜䌍∈ᑇⱘᦤछˈᓎㄥ㺙佄㺙ׂⱘᄬ䞣Ꮦഎᇚ㒻㓁ᠽ໻DŽ Ѯॺ㙵ӑ˄002375˅ᮄ㙵䆶Ӌ᡹ਞ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010ᑈ 3᳜ 8᮹ 4 ජජᏖ࣪䖯⿟ǃ⍜䌍छ㑻ࠎ▔݀݅㺙佄Ϯ䳔∖� ᓎ೑ 60ᑈᴹ ៥ˈ೑ජᏖϾ᭄⬅ᓎ೑ࠡⱘ 132Ͼ๲ࡴࠄ 2008ᑈⱘ 655Ͼ ජˈ䬛Ҏষ↨ 1991ᑈ๲ࡴ 90.3%ˈ ᑇഛ↣ᑈ๲䭓 5.6%DŽජᏖ࣪∈ᑇ໻ᐙᦤ催ˈ2008ᑈජᏖ࣪⥛ᦤ催ࠄ 45.68%ˈ↨ 1991ᑈᦤ催 19Ͼⱒߚ⚍ˈ ԚⳌ↨থ䖒೑ᆊ 75%ⱘජᏖ࣪⥛ˈ៥೑ජᏖ࣪∈ᑇ䖬᳝ᕜ໻Ꮒ䎱ˈ᳾ᴹජᏖ࣪䖯⿟䖬᳝ᕜ໻ぎ䯈DŽ ජᏖ࣪䖯⿟ᢝࡼњ݀݅෎⸔䆒ᮑᓎ䆒੠᠓ഄѻϮⱘথሩˈҢ㗠ᦤछᓎㄥ㺙佄䳔∖ⱘ๲䞣䳔∖DŽ㗠䱣ජᏖ ࣪⥛㗠ᴹⱘජ䬛ሙ⇥⍜䌍छ㑻ˈজ㛑ѻ⫳⦄᳝ᄬ䞣ᓎㄥⱘ㺙佄᳈ᮄ䳔∖DŽḍ᥂㸠ϮणӮ㒳䅵ˈⳂࠡᄬ䞣Ꮦഎ 䚼ߚ↣ᑈᏆ㒣ৃҹᦤկ 8000ғܗᎺেⱘ䳔∖DŽĀᄬ䞣+๲䞣ā䳔∖ⱘঠ䞡ࠎ▔ϟˈᓎㄥ㺙佄Ꮦഎ䖙䗳៤䭓DŽ ೒ 5˖Ё᮹䶽ජᏖ࣪䖯⿟੠乘⌟ ऩԡ˖% 0 20 40 60 80 100 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Ё೑ ᮹ᴀ 䶽೑ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖㘨ড়೑ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 6˖Ё೑᠓ഄѻϮ᳜ᑺᡩ䌘ᘏ乱ঞ๲䗳 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 07 10 07 12 08 03 08 05 08 07 08 09 08 11 09 02 09 04 09 06 09 08 09 10 09 12 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 ᠓ഄѻϮ᳜ᑺᡩ䌘ᘏ乱˄ғܗˈᎺ䕈˅ ㌃䅵๲䗳˄%ˈে䕈˅ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ㒳䅵ሔˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 㒣⌢催䗳থሩˈ⍜䌍छ㑻ᏺᴹᮙ␌ˈ令佂ˈӮሩϮⱘᖿ䗳থሩˈ䜦ᑫˈӮሩЁᖗ䖯ܹ໻㾘῵ᓎ䆒ᳳˈϡ ҙ๲ࡴᓎㄥ㺙佄ⱘᏖഎ䳔∖㾘῵ˈ㗠Ϩᇍ㺙佄ⱘ䋼䞣ˈḷ⃵ᦤߎ᳈催㽕∖ˈ᥼ࡼ㺙佄㸠Ϯᭈԧ∈ᑇ৥᳈催ḷ ⃵থሩDŽ ೒ 7˖Ѩ᯳㑻䜦ᑫ᭄䞣ᣕ㓁๲䭓 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Ѩ᯳䜦ᑫ᭄䞣(Ꮊ䕈˅ ಯ᯳䜦ᑫ᭄䞣 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ㒳䅵ሔˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 8˖ජ䬛ሙ⇥Ҏഛ⍜䌍〇ℹᦤ催 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% ජ䬛ሙ⇥Ҏഛ⍜䌍ᗻᬃߎ(ܗ) ๲䗳(ে䕈) 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ㒳䅵ሔˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ԣᅙѻϮ࣪Ўԣᅙ㊒㺙ׂᏖഎᦤկᑓ䯨ࠡ᱃� 2002ᑈˈᓎ䆒䚼থᏗljଚકԣᅙ㺙ׂϔ⃵ࠄԡᅲᮑᇐ߭NJⱘ䗮ⶹ˄ᓎԣ᠓[2002]190ো˅ˈ ࡴᖿ᥼䖯ԣ ᅙѻϮ࣪䖯⿟DŽ2008ᑈˈԣ᠓੠ᓎ䆒䚼ҹ(2008)133ো᭛ ljˈ݇Ѣ䖯ϔℹࡴᔎԣᅙ㺙佄㺙ׂㅵ⧚ⱘ䗮ⶹNJˈ ᡊ ᣕˈᓩᇐ੠哧ࢅᮄᓎଚકԣᅙ㺙ׂࠄԡ῵ᓣDŽ Ѯॺ㙵ӑ˄002375˅ᮄ㙵䆶Ӌ᡹ਞ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010ᑈ 3᳜ 8᮹ 5 ೑ݙ݋ᕅડ࡯ⱘ᠓ഄѻᓔথଚ㒋㒋㸼⼎㽕໻࡯᥼ᑓ㊒㺙ׂԣᅙˈ2009 ᑈϛ⾥ᅷᏗᇚ᩸ߎ↯㚮᠓Ꮦഎˈ ܼ䴶ᓔሩԣᅙ㊒㺙ׂDŽ㓓ഄ䲚ಶᇚܼ䴶ਃࡼĀ㓓㡆㸠ࡼāˈ ⴔ࡯ࡴᔎ㡖㛑ⳕഄˈ㓓㡆ᓎㄥˈԣᅙѻϮ࣪ㄝⷨ থঞ᥼ᑓᑨ⫼DŽ ೼ѻϮᬓㄪ੠Ꮦഎ䳔∖ⱘঠ䞡᥼ࡼϟˈԣᅙ㊒㺙ׂᏖഎ䖯ܹ㫀ࢗথሩᯊᳳDŽ2008 ᑈᑓᎲ᥼ߎⱘᮄὐⲬ Ёˈ㊒㺙ׂ᠓ऴ↨䖒 59.5%˗ḍ᥂৘ഄԣᅙᓎ䆒㾘ߦˈ㟇 2010 ᑈˈ⏅ഇˈᑓᎲˈ࣫Ҁˈ໻䖲ㄝӫ໮໻Ёජ Ꮦ䫔ଂԣᅙᇚܼ䚼ᅲ⦄ϔ⃵ᗻ㺙ׂDŽᣝ✻㸠ϮणӮ乘⌟ˈࠄ 2010 ᑈˈབᵰᣝ 100 ᑇᮍ㉇↣༫䅵ㅫˈҙᮄ๲ ԣᅙ䳔∖ህᇚ䖒ࠄ 8000ϛ༫ˈ㢹ҙᣝ✻ 10%䞛⫼㊒㺙ׂߎଂᮍᓣˈ↣ᑇᮍ 600̚1000ܗⱘ㺙ׂᷛޚˈ߭Ꮦ എᆍ䞣䖒ࠄ 4800̚8000ғܗDŽ᳾ᴹԣᅙ㊒㺙ׂᏖഎᇚ䖢ᴹᗹ࠻㝼㚔ᳳDŽ 㸼 5˖ग़ᑈ᠓ഄѻϮ೎ᅮ䌘ѻᡩ䌘ঞᓎᅝᡩ䌘ᚙމঞ乘⌟ ᣛᣛᷛৡ⿄ 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E ᠓ഄѻϮ೎ᅮ䌘ѻᡩ䌘 ˄ғܗ˅ 11217 14481 17527 21446 28543 35215 43065 52539 63047 ๲䗳 ˉ 29.10% 20.50% 25.40% 32.20% 23.00% 19.90% 22.00% 20.00% ᠓ഄѻϮජ䬛೎ᅮ䌘ѻᓎ ㄥᅝ㺙Ꮉ⿟ᡩ䌘乱˄ ғܗ˅ ˉ 10036 11905 15089 19899 25584 30146 36778 44133 ๲䗳 ˉ ˉ 18.62% 26.74% 31.88% 28.57% 20.44% 22.00% 20.00% ᓎᅝᡩ䌘ऴ↨ ˉ 69.31% 67.92% 70.36% 69.71% 72.65% 70% 70% 70% 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 9˖Ё೑᠓ሟᮄᓔᎹ䴶⿃ৠ↨᳜ᑺ㌃䅵๲䗳 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 05 03 05 06 05 09 05 12 06 03 06 06 06 09 06 12 07 03 07 06 07 09 07 12 08 03 08 06 08 09 08 12 09 03 09 06 09 09 09 12 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ㒳䅵ሔˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 10˖Ё೑᠓ሟᮑᎹ䴶⿃ঞৠ↨๲䗳 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 99 12 00 12 01 12 02 12 03 12 04 12 05 12 06 12 07 12 08 12 09 12 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 ᠓ሟᮑᎹ䴶⿃˄Ꮊ䕈ˈϛᑇᮍ㉇˅ ৠ↨๲䗳˄ে䕈ˈ%˅ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖೑ᆊ㒳䅵ሔˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ݀݅ᓎㄥᮄᓎ੠ᬍ䗴֗䖯ᓎㄥᐩ๭Ꮉ⿟䖙䗳থሩ� ᓎㄥᐩ๭԰Ў݀݅ᓎㄥ੠催ὐ໻ॺⱘ໪ೈᡸ㒧ᵘⱘЏᇐѻકˈ݊ 䳔∖䱣ⴔ㒣⌢๲䭓੠ሙ⇥ᬊܹᦤछਜ⦄ 〇ℹ๲䭓DŽ៥೑ᓎㄥᐩ๭㸠ϮҢ 1983ᑈᓔྟ䍋ℹˈ㒣ग़ 20໮ᑈⱘথሩˈࠄ 21Ϫ㑾߱Ꮖ៤ЎϪ⬠㄀ϔᐩ๭ ⫳ѻ໻೑੠Փ⫼໻೑ ℷˈ೼৥ᐩ๭ᔎ೑থሩDŽҙ 2006 ᑈ៥೑ᐩ๭⫼䞣ᏆऴϪ⬠ⱘ 3/5 ᑈˈ㑺 5000ϛᑇᮍ㉇ˈ ѻؐ䖒ࠄ 500 ғܗDŽℸ໪ˈ៥೑㽕⫼ 30 ᑈᅲ⦄ජ䬛࣪ˈ೎ᅮ䌘ѻᡩ䌘ҡ✊ᰃᔧࠡᢝࡼݙ䳔ⱘЏ㽕࡯䞣DŽ಴ ℸˈᐩ๭Ꮦഎࠡ᱃कߚᑓ䯨DŽ⬅Ѣㅵ⧚ϡᔧˈЁ೑䆒䅵ᇓੑЎ 50ᑈⱘᓎㄥ⠽ˈᅲ䰙ᑇഛՓ⫼ᇓੑЎ 30ᑈˈ 䗴៤䌘⑤⌾䌍DŽ⬅Ѣ೑ᆊ㛑⑤ᬓㄪⱘ䇗ᭈˈ໻ᐙᑺᦤ催њᇍ䮼にᐩ๭㡖㛑ⱘ㽕∖ˈ䖤⫼ঞᬍ䗴ᓎㄥˈгᇚ៤ Ўᐩ๭㸠Ϯথሩᮄⱘ๲䭓⚍DŽ乘䅵᳾ᴹ޴ᑈˈ៥೑ᓎㄥᐩ๭ᑈഛ䳔∖䞣㑺Ў 3000 ϛᑇᮍ㉇ˈӴ㒳ᐩ๭ક⾡ 䗤⏤៤❳〇ᅮ ঠˈሖ㒧ᵘᐩ๭ǃܝ⬉ᐩ๭ǃ䙂䰇ᵓᐩ๭ǃ⫳ᗕᐩ๭ǃᱎ㛑ᐩ๭ㄝ㡖㛑⦃ֱൟᐩ๭ᇚᖿ䗳থሩDŽ ৠᯊˈ೑ᆊᓎㄥ㡖㛑Ⳃᷛгᇚѻ⫳⦄᳝ᐩ๭ᬍ䗴Ꮉ⿟Ꮦഎ㑺 3000ϛᑇᮍ㉇ⱘᬍ䗴䞣ˈᏖഎᆍ䞣Ꮌ໻DŽ 㸠Ϯഄԡঞゲѝ࡯ ᥂Ё೑ᓎㄥ㺙佄णӮ㒳䅵ˈܼ೑᳝݅ᓎㄥ㺙佄ӕϮ㑺 15 ϛᆊˈ݊Ёϔ㑻ᓎㄥ㺙佄㺙ׂᎹ⿟ϧϮᡓࣙӕ Ϯ 964 ᆊˈϔ㑻ᓎㄥᐩ๭Ꮉ⿟ϧϮᡓࣙӕϮ 210 ᆊˈ⬆㑻ᓎㄥ㺙佄Ꮉ⿟ϧ乍䆒䅵ӕϮ 640 ᆊˈ⬆㑻ᐩ๭Ꮉ Ѯॺ㙵ӑ˄002375˅ᮄ㙵䆶Ӌ᡹ਞ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2010ᑈ 3᳜ 8᮹ 6 ⿟ϧ乍䆒䅵ӕϮ 235 ᆊˈߚ߿ऴܼ㸠ϮӕϮᘏ᭄ⱘ 0.64%ǃ0.14%ǃ0.43%੠ 0.16%DŽѮॺ㺙佄ᰃ㸠Ϯݙৠᯊ ݋᳝Ϟ䗄ಯ乍䌘䋼ⱘᇥ᭄ӕϮDŽ݀ৌ 2002ᑈᑺ㟇 2008ᑈᑺ䖲㓁 7ᑈሙЁ೑ᓎㄥ㺙佄㸠ϮⱒᔎӕϮࠡ 3⬆DŽ ݊Ё 02ǃ03ǃ06̚08ᑈᑺԡሙ㸠Ϯ㄀ѠDŽ 㸼 6˖Ё೑ᓎㄥ㺙佄ⱒᔎӕϮ 10ᔎ ᑣᑣো 2008ᑈᑺ 2007ᑈᑺ 2006ᑈᑺ 1 㢣Ꮂ䞥㶇㵖ᓎㄥ㺙佄㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌ 㢣Ꮂ䞥㶇㵖ᓎㄥ㺙佄㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌ 㢣Ꮂ䞥㶇㵖ᓎㄥ㺙佄㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌ 2 Ѯॺ㙵ӑ㺙佄㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌ Ѯॺ㙵ӑ㺙佄㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌ Ѯॺ㙵ӑ㺙佄䲚ಶ᳝䰤݀ৌ 3 ⏅ഇᏖ⏅㺙ᘏ㺙佄Ꮉ⿟ᎹϮ᳝䰤݀ৌ ⏅ഇᏖ⏅㺙ᘏ㺙佄Ꮉ⿟ᎹϮ᳝䰤݀ৌ ⏅ഇᏖ⏅㺙ᘏ㺙佄Ꮉ⿟ᎹϮ᳝䰤݀ৌ 4 Ё೑ᓎㄥ㺙佄Ꮉ⿟᳝䰤݀ৌ Ё೑ᓎㄥ㺙佄Ꮉ⿟᳝䰤݀ৌ Ё೑ᓎㄥ㺙佄Ꮉ⿟݀ৌ 5 ⏅ഇᏖ⋾⍯㙵ӑ㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌ ⏅ഇᏖ
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