Telecom Industry Trendsy
Dr. Mehmet Unsoy
Managing Partner
Mega Trends in TelecomMega Trends in Telecom
Convergence
Network Capacity
Mobile InternetConvergence
Telecom and
& Economics
Mobile Internet
Role of Femtocells
Telecom and
Content Delivery
Smarter Devices
Year of Google?
New Services,
Apps & App Stores
Video Explosion
Globalization &
Consolidation
Cloud Computing
& Services
Innovation!
2/7/2010 MUNSOY LTD 2
ConvergenceConvergence
• Not just network convergence but also access convergence, device
convergence service convergenceconvergence, service convergence
• Role of IP Telephony, VoIP, Video over IP, anything over IP
• Various regulatory issues / challenges
• Wireless / mobile is the huge growth market
• But also broadband, cable, satellite growth opportunities
• Home is a major battle ground
– Home gateways, Femtocells, home automation
– Various verticals: “entertainment”, “healthcare”. “energy”, etc
• Personal Communication is a major battle ground
– Mobile handsets, Smartphones
– Consumers, prosumers, and enterprises
• Internet of Things – Next Frontier!
– Major opportunities for telecom operators in M2M market growth, e.g. Smart Grid
2/7/2010 MUNSOY LTD 3
Network Capacity and EconomicsNetwork Capacity and Economics
• Bandwidth demand is growing almost exponentially
Vid i th j t ib t i ti b th i l d b db d• Video is the major contributor, impacting both wireless and broadband
networks
• More spectrum will be needed for mobile networks; but also more
ffi i t f th t LTE i f thefficient use of the spectrum; LTE is one of the answers
• More network capacity will need to be deployed, but network economics
will be very critical
• Network optimization and backhaul / access optimization will be a major
area of focus
• Cloud Computing will be part of the answer – more on this later!
• Also need better distribution of content , better allocation of processing
between network and devices
• Need better tools for policy management, and
• Need regulatory flexibility re Net Neutrality, etc.
2/7/2010 MUNSOY LTD 4
Mobile InternetMobile Internet
• Next phase of Internet, ubiquitously available, from any device, anywhere
and anytime
• HSPA, LTE technologies for wireless networks, Smartphones, browsers,
Apps, and Services
• Content is King, but content delivery is and will continue to be very critical
as well; Content Delivery will be the “King Maker”
• Advertising will be very important element of the new business modelsg y p
• Battles between Apps and Browsers
• Battles for Smartphone Operating Systems
• Pervasive and Trustworthy Network and Service Infrastructures including• Pervasive and Trustworthy Network and Service Infrastructures, including
virtualized infrastructures
• Lots of room for innovation on both the technology and the business
models more on this latermodels – more on this later
2/7/2010 MUNSOY LTD 5
Role of FemtoCellsRole of FemtoCells
• There are various rationales for Femtocells; but most critical one is not
coverage, but rather bandwidth explosion and network economics
• Cost of Femtocells has been a major bottleneck for wide‐scale
deployment; but expect the cost/price points to come down
• Should be a key element of future Mobile Internet and convergence
strategy
• Part of the battle for the home and the office
• Room for lots of innovation in merging / integrating Femtocells
– Into home and office environment, but also
– Into the telecom networks
• Major opportunities might be on new apps / services offered through
Femtocells,
– Remote healthcare, Smart Grid, Content Delivery to Home
2/7/2010 MUNSOY LTD 6
Telecom & Content DeliveryTelecom & Content Delivery
• They say Content is King, but timely, cost‐effective and high‐quality
delivery of this content is equally as important. Otherwise, content is not
worth anything!
• Telecom operators are in an ideal position to offer
– timely, cost‐effective and high‐quality delivery of content,
– to users at home, at work and on mobile
• Already started with services like IPTV, home entertainment, etc.
• Partnerships and JVs, especially with content owners and distributors
• M&As, especially for content delivery platforms/networks
• Business model challenges, but requires business innovation!Business model challenges, but requires business innovation!
– Advertising will be an important component of new business models
2/7/2010 MUNSOY LTD 7
New Smarter DevicesNew Smarter Devices
• Smartphones are growing; 500Million Smartphones by YE 2009; most
likely 30% of all handsets globally by 2012likely 30% of all handsets globally by 2012
• Mobile Internet is the key driver for Smartphones; Internet Access in
developing market will be primarily through mobiles & Smartphones will
have a major rolehave a major role
• Apple, iPhone and iTunes revolutionized the mobile world in the last 2
years
B t G l d A d id i i t t ti ll j h ll t• But Google and Android is coming strong; potentially major challenger to
iPhone; giving more choices to users / operators;
• Google’s new Nexus One has several revolutionary elements
• App Stores are a very critical element for Smartphone business
• Smart edge – dumb pipe dichotomy; networks need to fight back
• Network as a Service (NaaS) concept helping operators to regain /
maintain services and fight back on the value chain battle
2/7/2010 MUNSOY LTD 8
Video ExplosionVideo Explosion
• It is not just YouTube, IPTV, or Mobile TV,
• Video will be very prominent in almost all aspects of TMT sector
– Expect to see video as part of data streams triggered by most Smartphones,
– Expect to see video as part of the fabric of all or almost all future Apps
• Major verticals such as Entertainment (inc., Games), Social Networking,
Healthcare, Education, Security, Military
• Three Screen Strategies for TV, PC and Handset – numerous new business
opportunities
• More capacity, more optimization, more service bundling, but also need
new business models
• Continuous technology innovation around Video (3D TV was the hot item
at 2010 CES show in Las Vegas)
• We also need innovation around business models, including new
advertising paradigms
2/7/2010 MUNSOY LTD 9
Year of Google?Year of Google?
• Huge commitment to telecom, from voice to video, search, advertising,
bil OS b i l i ll (E )mobile, OS, browser, apps, services, location, as well as new areas (Energy)
• Targeting consumers, prosumers, and all sizes of enterprises
• Pushing for “open” & “net neutrality” but also working verticals, with &
without operators
• Recent launch of Nexus One is a good example
– Lots of technology innovations, e.g. speech, touch‐screen, processing, storage, etc
– Sold with operators, but un‐locked version to be used with any operator (new for USA)
• Will continue to have far more influence than Microsoft on telecom sector
• Telecom operators need to
– Collaborate (not confront Google), e.g. potential partnerships
– But also stand their ground in the value chain with their own strategy,
capabilities, services and business modelsp ,
2/7/2010 MUNSOY LTD 10
New Services, Apps & App StoresNew Services, Apps & App Stores
• Network as a Service (NaaS) concept –hybrid services / apps; may open up
new opportunities
• Cloud Computing services next page
• App Stores – there are 3‐4 different types , pursued by different players;pp yp , p y p y ;
– operators need to find their niche market to succeed in App Store business
• LBS services will be very important , and critical for telecom operators to
leverage their assetsg
• Unified Communication (UC) services are the current focus for Enterprise
• Security services / apps will be very relevant for telecom operators to play
in different vertical markets, e.g. finance / banking, healthcare, etc.in different vertical markets, e.g. finance / banking, healthcare, etc.
• NaaS and Cloud Computing can come together and enable operators to
maintain their position in the value chain, i.e. avoid being a dumb pipe!
2/7/2010 MUNSOY LTD 11
Cloud Computing & ServicesCloud Computing & Services
• Availability of software, processing power & storage on a “as needed” basis
• Reduces CAPEX, provides agility, reduced cost, device independence,
reliability, scalability, security, reduced maintenance
• Includes Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) + Platform as a Service (PaaS), +
Software as a Service (SaaS); High strategic fit with telecom industry assets
• Already $16B business in 2009, and will grow to $43B business by 2012
• Early examples of Operators: Orange = “flexible computing”; Verizon= y p p g p g
“Computing as a Service”; Vodafone= services such as “PC backup”; O2=
“O2 Bluebook”; BT= global hosted UC services
• Will be transformative for the telecom industry for the next 3‐5 yearsy y
• Key questions for telecom operators are
– How to establish strong role and not let the Internet companies to steel the show
– How to leverage key assets to leverage Cloud computing & services and become a “Smart
Pipe”
2/7/2010 MUNSOY LTD 12
InnovationInnovation
• Innovation is the lifeblood of any growth industry, including Telecom
sector
• Technical innovation is very critical; however business innovation in the
telecom sector is lagging behind; it is slow and difficult to achieve!
• How to stimulate innovation, how to coach / steer innovation, and how to
commercialize innovation? These are some of the key questions!
• Significant drop in Venture Capital (VC) investments recently, especially g p p ( ) y, p y
telecom is loosing appeal fast; also developing markets like Turkey is
lacking VC infrastructure
• We need:
– Angel investing, VCs and Private Equity firms re‐engaged and interested in the sector
– Telecom eco‐system players may need more emphasis on R&D as well as working with
entrepreneurs at promising start‐ups
d l d i b i d l– Operators need to explore and innovate at new business models
2/7/2010 MUNSOY LTD 13
Globalization & ConsolidationGlobalization & Consolidation
• Globalization
– Not a new trend, but increased emphasis now, due to liberalization and economies of
scale
– No artificial boundaries; operators are expanding their reach geographically, wherever it
makes “sense” for them to gomakes sense for them to go
– This trend will continue, especially into the developing countries / markets
– Organizations could be geographical, segment based, functional or product based
– Group functions and collaborations with regional organizations, etc.
• Consolidations
– Related to globalization of telecom companies
– Significant consolidation already at the telecom equipment suppliers level
– Economies of scale will also trigger further consolidation of telecom operators
– This will most likely accelerate in the next 3‐5 years
2/7/2010 MUNSOY LTD 14
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