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首页 macroeconomics_a_modern_approach

macroeconomics_a_modern_approach.pdf

macroeconomics_a_modern_approach

benjamin
2014-03-08 0人阅读 举报 0 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《macroeconomics_a_modern_approachpdf》,可适用于高等教育领域

January,Macroeconomics:AModernApproachRobertJBarroDetailedTableofContentsPartIIntroductionThinkingaboutMacroeconomicsIOutput,Unemployment,andPricesinUSHistoryIIEconomicModelsAAsimpleexamplethecoffeemarketBox:DemandandsupplycurvesarefunctionsBFlexibleversusstickypricesNationalIncomeAccounting:GrossDomesticProductandthePriceLevelINominalandRealGDPIIAlternativeViewsofGDPExpenditure,Income,andProductionAMeasuringGDPbyexpenditureBMeasuringGDPbyincomeCMeasuringGDPbyproductionDSeasonaladjustmentBox:GrossstateproductforUSstatesIIIPricesBox:ProblemswiththeconsumerpriceindexPartIIEconomicGrowthFactsonGrowthTheSolowGrowthModelIEconomicGrowtharoundtheWorld,Box:WorldpovertyandincomeinequalityIILongTermGrowthintheUnitedStatesandotherRichCountriesIIITheoryofEconomicGrowthATheproductionfunctionBGrowthaccountingCTheSolowgrowthmodelBox:IntellectualhistoryoftheSolowgrowthmodelSetupofthemodelThetransitionandthesteadystateBox:UsingalgebraDSummingupAppendixAThegrowthaccountingequationBTheSolowresidualCTheCobbDouglasproductionfunctionWorkingwiththeSolowModelIAChangeintheSavingRateBox:UsingalgebraBox:ConsumptionintheSolowmodelIIAChangeintheTechnologyLevelBox:UsingalgebraIIIAChangeintheLaborForceBox:UsingalgebraIVPopulationGrowthATheSolowmodelwithpopulationgrowthBox:UsingalgebraBAchangeinthepopulationgrowthrateBox:UsingalgebraBox:EndogenouspopulationgrowthVConvergenceAConvergenceintheSolowmodelBFactsaboutconvergenceCConditionalconvergenceintheSolowmodelVIWhereDoWeStandwiththeSolowModelAppendix:TherateofconvergenceConditionalConvergenceLongRunEconomicGrowthIConditionalConvergenceinPracticeARecentresearchonthedeterminantsofeconomicgrowthBox:Arockstar’sperspectiveondebtreliefandforeignaidBExamplesofconditionalconvergenceIILongRunEconomicGrowthAModelswithconstantaverageproductofcapitalBExogenoustechnologicalprogressThesteadystategrowthrateSteadystatesavingThetransitionpathandconvergenceCEndogenoustechnologicalprogressBox:ThestoryofNapsterandProzacDThediffusionoftechnologyBox:Hybridcorn:acaseoftechnologicaldiffusionIIISummarizingWhatWeKnowaboutEconomicGrowthPartIIIEconomicFluctuationsMicroeconomicFoundationsandMarketClearingIMarketsintheMacroEconomyIIMoneyasaMediumofExchangeBox:CommoncurrencyIIIMarketsandPricesAThegoodsmarketBThelabormarketCTherentalmarketDThebondmarketIVIncome,Expenditure,Assets,andtheBudgetConstraintAIncomeProfitWageincomeRentalincomeInterestincomeTotalincomeBConsumptionCAssetsBox:AllowingforariskpremiumonownershipofcapitalDHouseholdbudgetconstraintVClearingoftheMarketsforLaborandCapitalServicesAProfitmaximizationBThelabormarketDemandforlaborSupplyoflaborClearingofthelabormarketCThemarketforcapitalservicesDemandforcapitalservicesSupplyofcapitalservicesClearingofthemarketforcapitalservicesTheinterestrateDProfitinequilibriumBox:EconomicprofitversusaccountingprofitVISummingUpAppendix:OutputequalsfactorincomesandprofitequalszeroConsumption,Saving,andRealBusinessCyclesIConsumptionandSavingAConsumptionovertwoyearsPresentvaluesChoosingconsumption:incomeeffectsChoosingconsumption:theintertemporalsubstitutioneffectTheincomeeffectfromachangeintheinterestrateBox:EmpiricalevidenceonintertemporalsubstitutionofconsumptionBConsumptionovermanyyearsBox:EmpiricalevidenceonthepropensitytoconsumeIIConsumption,Saving,andInvestmentinEquilibriumIIIEconomicFluctuationsACyclicalbehaviorofrealGDPrecessionsandboomsBox:RecessionsinthelongtermUShistoryBRealbusinesscycletheoryThemarginalproductoflaborandtherealwagerateThemarginalproductofcapital,therealrentalprice,andtheinterestrateConsumption,saving,andinvestmentCMatchingthetheorywiththefactsConsumptionandinvestmentTherealwagerateTherealrentalpriceTheinterestrateDTemporarychangesinthetechnologylevelIIISummingUpLaborSupplyandCapitalUtilizationILaborInputALaborsupplyThesubstitutioneffectforleisureandconsumptionIncomeeffectsonlaborsupplyIntertemporalsubstitutioneffectsonlaborsupplyBox:EmpiricalevidenceonintertemporalsubstitutionoflaborsupplyBLaborinputduringeconomicfluctuationsThecyclicalbehavioroflaborinput:empiricalpatternsThecyclicalbehavioroflaborinput:theoryaVariationsinlaborsupplybLabordemandandthelabormarketThecyclicalbehavioroflaborproductivityIICapitalInputAThedemandforcapitalservicesBThesupplyofcapitalservicesBox:MultipleshiftsandovertimehoursCMarketclearingandcapitalutilizationDThecyclicalbehaviorofcapacityutilizationIIISummingUpAppendixAThecyclicalbehavioroflaborproductivityBTheinterestrate,therealwagerate,thesavingrate,andthequantityoflaborintheSolowgrowthmodelTheinterestrateTherealwagerateThesavingrateLaborinputEmploymentandUnemploymentIAModelofJobFindingIISearchbyFirmsIIIJobSeparationsIVJobSeparations,JobFinding,andtheNaturalUnemploymentRateVEmploymentandUnemploymentDuringaRecessionVIVacanciesBox:SeasonalfluctuationsVIISummingUpPartIVMoneyandPricesTheDemandforMoneyandthePriceLevelBox:MoneyinaprisonerofwarcampBox:WhereisallthecurrencyITheDemandforMoneyAThepricelevelandthedemandformoneyBTheinterestrateandthedemandformoneyCRealGDPandthedemandformoneyDOtherinfluencesonthedemandformoneyEThemoneydemandfunctionBox:ThepaymentsperiodandthedemandformoneyBox:EmpiricalevidenceonthedemandformoneyIIDeterminationofthePriceLevelAThequantityofmoneyequalsthequantitydemandedBAchangeinthequantityofmoneyCTheneutralityofmoneyDAchangeinthedemandformoneyEThecyclicalbehaviorofthepricelevelandrealmoneybalances:theoryFThecyclicalbehaviorofthepricelevelandrealmoneybalances:empiricalGPriceleveltargetingandendogenousmoneyBox:SeasonalvariationsinmoneyIIISummingUpInflation,MoneyGrowth,andInterestRatesICrosscountrydataonInflationandMoneyGrowthIIInflationandInterestRatesAActualandexpectedinflationBRealandnominalinterestratesCTherealinterestrateandintertemporalsubstitutionDActualandexpectedrealinterestratesMeasuringexpectedinflationUSexpectedinflationandinterestratessinceWorldWarIIIndexedbonds,realinterestrates,andexpectedinflationratesEInterestratesonmoneyIIIInflationintheMarketClearingModelAIntertemporalsubstitutioneffectsBBondsandcapitalCInterestratesandthedemandformoneyDInflationandtherealeconomyEMoneygrowth,inflation,andthenominalinterestrateFTrendsintherealdemandformoneyGShiftsinthemoneygrowthrateHGovernmentrevenuefromprintingmoneyBox:MoneyandpricesduringtheGermanhyperinflationIVSummingUpPartVTheGovernmentSectorGovernmentExpenditureIDataonGovernmentExpenditureIITheGovernment’sBudgetConstraintIIIPublicProductionIVPublicServicesVHouseholds’BudgetConstraintsVIPermanentChangesinGovernmentPurchasesAApermanentchangeingovernmentpurchases:theoryBox:UsefulpublicservicesBThecyclicalbehaviorofgovernmentpurchasesVIITemporaryChangesinGovernmentPurchasesAAtemporarychangeingovernmentpurchases:theoryBox:EffectsonthetermstructureofinterestratesBGovernmentpurchasesandrealGDPduringwartime:empiricalCWartimeeffectsontheeconomyEmploymentduringwartimeEffectsofwaronlaborsupplyEffectsofwarontherealwagerateEffectsofwarontherentalmarketVIIISummingUpTaxesITaxesintheUnitedStatesIITypesofTaxesIIITaxesintheModelAAtaxonlaborincomeBox:AconsumptiontaxBAtaxonassetincomeIVAnIncreaseinGovernmentPurchasesFinancedbyaLaborIncomeTaxBox:TheLaffercurveVTransferPaymentsVISummingUpThePublicDebtITheHistoryofthePublicDebtintheUnitedStatesandtheUnitedKingdomIICharacteristicsofGovernmentBondsIIIBudgetConstraintsandBudgetDeficitsAThegovernment’sbudgetconstraintBThebudgetdeficitBox:InflationandthebudgetdeficitinthenationalaccountsCPublicsaving,privatesaving,andnationalsavingIVPublicDebtandHouseholds’BudgetConstraintsAAsimplecaseofRicardianequivalenceBAnothercaseofRicardianequivalenceCRicardianequivalencemoregenerallyVEconomicEffectsofaBudgetDeficitALumpsumtaxesBLaborincometaxesCAssetincometaxesDThetimingoftaxesandtaxratesmoothingBox:UnpleasantmonetaristarithmeticEStrategicbudgetdeficitsFTheconventionalviewofbudgetdeficitsFinitelifetimesImperfectcreditmarketsBox:EmpiricalevidenceonthemacroeconomiceffectsofbudgetdeficitsVISocialSecurityVIIOpenMarketOperationsVIIISummingUpPartVIMoneyandBusinessCyclesMoneyandBusinessCyclesI:ThePriceMisperceptionsModelIThePriceMisperceptionsModelAAmodelwithnonneutraleffectsofmoneyBOnlyunperceivedinflationaffectsrealvariablesCPredictionsforeconomicfluctuationsDEmpiricalevidenceontherealeffectsofmonetaryshocksFriedmanandSchwartz’sMonetaryHistoryUnanticipatedmoneygrowthRomerandRomeronFederalReservepolicyAbriefoverviewBox:Incompleteinformationaboutprices:isitsignificantERealshocksIIRulesversusDiscretionIIISummingUpMoneyandBusinessCyclesII:StickyPricesandNominalWageRatesITheNewKeynesianModelMonopolisticCompetitionintheGoodsMarketAResponsestoamonetaryshockBShockstoaggregatedemandBox:EvidenceonthestickinessofpricesIIMoneyandNominalInterestRatesIIITheKeynesianModelStickyNominalWageRatesBox:TherealwagerateduringtheNewDealIVLongTermContractsandStickyNominalWageRatesBox:EmpiricalevidenceonthecontractingapproachVSummingUpPartVIIInternationalMacroeconomicsWorldMarketsinGoodsandCreditITheHomeCountryandtheRestoftheWorldIITheHistoryoftheUSCurrentAccountBalanceIIIRealBusinessCyclesandtheCurrentAccountBalanceBox:ExamplesofinternationalborrowingandlendingIVTheCurrentAccountDeficitandtheBudgetDeficitVTheTermsofTradeAThetermsoftradeandthecurrentaccountbalanceBVariationsinlaborandrealGDPBox:WhywastheUScurrentaccountdeficitsolargeinVISummingUpExchangeRatesIDifferentMoniesandExchangeRatesIIPurchasingPowerParityBox:PurchasingpowerparityfortheBigMacIIIInterestRateParityBox:ThinkingaboutdivergencesinrealinterestratesIVFixedExchangeRatesAThequantityofmoneyunderfixedexchangeratesBWorldpricesunderfixedexchangeratesCDevaluationVFlexibleExchangeRatesVISummingUpNovember,ChapterThinkingaboutMacroeconomicsInmacroeconomics,westudytheoveralloraggregateperformanceofaneconomyAlotofourfocuswillbeonaneconomy’stotaloutputofgoodsandservices,asmeasuredbytherealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)WewillstudythebreakdownofGDPintoitsmajorcomponents:consumption,grossprivatedomesticinvestment(purchasesofnewcapitalgoodsequipmentandstructuresbytheprivatesector),governmentconsumptionandinvestment,andnetexportsofgoodsandservicesWealsoexaminetheaggregatesofemployment(personswithjobs)andunemployment(personswithoutjobswhoareseekingwork)ThesetermsrefertoquantitiesofgoodsorlaborWearealsointerestedinthepricesthatcorrespondtothesequantitiesForexample,weconsiderthedollarpricesofthegoodsandservicesproducedinaneconomyWhenwelookatthepriceofthetypicaloraverageitem,werefertothegeneralpricelevelWealsostudythewagerate,whichisthedollarpriceoflabortherentalprice,whichisthedollarpricepaidtousecapitalgoodsandtheinterestrate,whichdeterminesthecostofborrowingandthereturntolendingWhenweconsidermorethanoneeconomy,wecanstudytheexchangerate,whichistherateatwhichoneformofmoney(saytheeuro)exchangesforanotherformofmoney(saytheUSdollar)Wewillsetupaneconomicmodel,whichallowsustostudyhowthevariousquantitiesandpricesaredeterminedWecanusethemodeltoseehowthequantitiesandpriceschangeinresponsetodisturbances,suchasatechnologicaladvanceWecanalsoinvestigatetheeffectsofthegovernment’spoliciesForexample,weconsidermonetarypolicy,whichinvolvesthedeterminationofthequantityofmoneyandthesettingofinterestratesWealsostudyfiscalpolicy,whichpertainstothegovernment’schoicesofexpenditures,taxes,andfiscaldeficitsTheperformanceoftheoveralleconomymattersforeveryonebecauseitinfluencesincomes,jobprospects,andpricesThus,itisimportantforusandevenmoreimportantforgovernmentpolicymakerstounderstandhowthemacroeconomyoperatesUnfortunately,asisobviousfromreadingthenewspapers,macroeconomicsisnotasettledscientificfieldAlthoughthereisconsensusonmanyissuessuchassomeofthedeterminantsoflongruneconomicgrowththereisalsocontroversyaboutmanytopicssuchasthesourcesofeconomicfluctuationsandtheshortruneffectsofmonetarypolicyThemainobjectiveofthisbookistoconveythemacroeconomicknowledgethathasbeenattained,aswellastopointoutareasinwhichafullunderstandinghasyettobeachievedIOutput,Unemployment,andPricesinUSHistoryTogetanoverviewofthesubject,considerthehistoricalrecordforsomeofthemajormacroeconomicvariablesintheUnitedStatesFigureshowsthetotaloutputofgoodsandservicesfromto(Thestartingdateisdeterminedbytheavailabledata)Ourmeasureofaggregateoutputistherealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)Thisconceptexpressesquantitiesintermsofabaseyear,whichhappenstobeChapterconsidersnationalincomeaccountingandtherebyprovidestheconceptualdetailsformeasuringrealGDPThegeneralupwardtrendofrealGDPinFigurereflectsthelongtermgrowthoftheUSeconomyTheaveragegrowthrateofrealGDPfromtowasperyearThisgrowthratemeantthat,overyears,theeconomy’stotaloutputofgoodsandservicesexpandedfoldIfwedividethroughbypopulationtodeterminerealpercapitaGDP,wefindthattheaveragepercapitagrowthratewasperyearThisrateequalstheperyeargrowthrateofrealGDPlesstheperyeargrowthrateofpopulationThegrowthrateofrealpercapitaGDPofperyearmeantthat,overyears,therealGDPpercapitaexpandedfoldFigureshowsthegrowthrateofrealGDPforeachyearfromtoTheyeartoyeargrowthratesvarysubstantiallyaroundtheirmeanofThesevariationsarecalledeconomicfluctuationsor,sometimes,thebusinesscycleWhenrealGDPfallstowardalowpointortrough,theeconomyisinarecessionoraneconomiccontractionWhenrealGDPexpandstowardahighpointorpeak,theeconomyisinaboomoraneconomicexpansionThedatesmarkedinFigurecorrespondtothemajorUSrecessionssinceTherearemanywaystoclassifyperiodsofrecessionInthisgraphwemarkasyearsofrecessiontheyearsofloweconomicgrowthInchapter,weuseasomewhatThegraphusesaproportionate(logarithmic)scale,sothateachunitontheverticalaxiscorrespondstothesamepercentagechangeinrealGDPBecauseofdataavailability,thenumbersbeforerefertorealgrossnationalproduct(GNP)WediscusstherelationbetweenGDPandGNPinchapterThetermbusinesscyclecanbemisleadingbecauseitsuggestsamoreregularpatternofupsanddownsineconomicactivitythanactuallyappearsinthedatamoresophisticatedmethodtoclassifyrecessionsHowever,mostoftheclassificationsarethesameasthoseshowninFigureNoteinFiguretheGreatDepressionfromto,duringwhichrealGDPdeclinedatperyearforfouryearsOthermajorrecessionsbeforeWorldWarIIoccurredin,,,,andInthepostWorldWarIIperiod,themainrecessionswerein,,andForeconomicbooms,notefirstinFigurethehighratesofeconomicgrowthduringWorldWarsIandIIandtheKoreanWarPeacetimeperiodsofsustainedhigheconomicgrowthbeforeWorldWarIIwereto,to,muchofthes,andtherecoveryfromtheGreatDepressionfromto(exceptfortherecession)AfterWorldWarII,theperiodsofsustainedhigheconomicgrowthwereto(exceptforthebriefrecessionin),to,andtoAnotherwaytogaugerecessionsandboomsistoconsidertheunemploymentratethefractionofpersonsseekingworkwhohavenojobFigureshowstheunemploymentrateforeachyearfromtoOverthisperiod,themedianunemploymentratewas(Themeanwas)Duringrecessions,

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