下载

2下载券

加入VIP
  • 专属下载特权
  • 现金文档折扣购买
  • VIP免费专区
  • 千万文档免费下载

上传资料

关闭

关闭

关闭

封号提示

内容

首页 高盛-中国电信市场分析

高盛-中国电信市场分析.pdf

高盛-中国电信市场分析

missingfree
2010-01-29 0人阅读 举报 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《高盛-中国电信市场分析pdf》,可适用于经济金融领域

January,China:TelecomServicesGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchJanuary,China:TelecomServicesGambitionsexpandingTDandstructuralreformreemphasizedEobjectivesareindustrystructuralreform,TDandGChina’sMIITissuedseveralpressreleasesannouncingvariousmeasuresrelatingtoindustryobjectivesfor,Gcapextargets,andTDSCDMA(TD)supportivemeasuresdetailsOntelcofocusobjectives,theMIITshall‘continuouslydeepentelecomstructuralreform,furtheradoptregulatorypoliciesrelevanttosuchreformstronglysupportTDSCDMAdevelopment,accelerateGinvestment’todrivethevaluechainRmbbncapextargethigherthanourestimatesTheMIIT:)confirmedGrolloutsizetargetsforErecentlyreportedinthepress(companywebsiteandSinacom,Jan),ie:a)ChinaMobile(CM)tospendRmbbnonTDandreachcitiesbyendEb)ChinaUnicom(CU)tolaunchWCDMAincities‘withinH’andcitiesbyendEc)CTtocovercitieswithEVDObyMarch)statedGcapexplanwillbeRmbbn,RmbbnandRmbbnforErespectively(impliedbyone,two,threeyearcapexcumulativetargetsofRmbbn,Rmbbn,RmbbnthesefiguresarehigherthantheyearlyRmbbn,Rmbbn,RmbbnGEcapexincorporatedintoourChinaCommServices(CCS)estimates,implyingRmbbnmorebudgetedGcapexvsourestimatesoverthreeyears))statedthatGsubbaseshouldbeinexcessofaboutmforeachoperatorwithinthreeyearsTDsupportpolicydetailsunveiledICchangesanticipatedTDsupportivepoliciesinclude(asexpected):RDvaluechaingrants,rolloutviaresourcesharing,startingRDonTDLTE,acceleratinghandsetpermitapprovals,includingTDongovernmentapprovedprocurementlists,etcOnenewitemisto‘furtherresearchandestablishaninterconnection(IC)regimewhichissuitabletothenewfullservicemarketstructure,consistentwiththecurrentdevelopmenttrendofICchangepreferentialtoTDSCDMA’Wemaintainthat:a)ICcutsareinevitablegiventariffperminisfallingapproachingICrates(eg,consistentwithICchangetrend),b)changesmayinvolveGGvoice,SMSandmaybefixedinternetaswell(eg,suitabletothefullservicemarketstructure)c)TDICwillbemorefavorablevsGtoshowsupportandmotivateCMtoaccelerateusagemigration(e,g,preferentialtoTD)ItisnotclearwhetherpreferentialTDICwouldapplytoallusageorGonly,whetheritwouldprecede,followorcomewithotherICchanges,normagnitudedetailsWethinkICreformmeetingallthreecriteriawillnotnetoutasanegativetoCUCTearnings(onthecontrary,wethinkcouldbequitepositive),especiallywhileusageonTDislowCHINESETELCOSVALUATIONCOMPSCMHKCUCTTickerHKHKHKCurrentprice(HK$)EPE(x)EPE(x)EEVEBITDA(x)EEVEBITDA(x)EDivyield()EDivyield()EPB(x)EPB(x)ValuationcurrentpricePricesasofJanuary,Source:Datastream,GoldmanSachsResearchestimatesUPCOMINGEVENTSFebruaryCMtorelaunchTDSCDMAwithnewpromotionsandpackagesincitiesMarchCTtolaunchCDMAEVDOincitiesMarchChinesetelcosreportfullyearresultsRELATEDRESEARCHChina:TelecomServices:DecembersubscleanupsetsthestageforabrighterE,Jan,China:TelecomServices:Thepathofleastdownsidesurpriserisk–UGCTtoBuy,toppick,Jan,China:TelecomServices:Glicensedbutnodetailsyet,competitiontoweighdownearnings,Jan,China:TelecomServices:MinisternamesnewGcapexnumber,guideslowEsalesgrowth,Dec,China:TelecomServices:MIITministerreiteratesasymmregulationGbyendbeg,Dec,China:TelecomServices:TDGregulatoryprogressmovingaheadinlinewithourviews,Nov,China:TelecomServices:TopdownfactorsruleSTtradearoundtroughmultiplescatalysts,Nov,HelenZhu|helenzhugscomGoldmanSachs(Asia)LLCLucyLiu|lucyliugscomGoldmanSachs(Asia)LLCTheGoldmanSachsGroup,IncdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreportsAsaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportInvestorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecisionCustomersintheUScanreceiveindependent,thirdpartyresearchoncompaniescoveredinthisreport,atnocosttothem,wheresuchresearchisavailableCustomerscanaccessthisindependentresearchatwwwindependentresearchgscomorcallForRegACcertification,seetheendofthetextOtherimportantdisclosuresfollowtheRegACcertification,orgotowwwgscomresearchhedgehtmlAnalystsemployedbynonUSaffiliatesarenotregisteredqualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheUSTheGoldmanSachsGroup,IncGlobalInvestmentResearchJanuary,China:TelecomServicesGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchAdditionalGSanalysisonregulatorycommentaryGcapexbudget–impliesfurthercapexincreasebyCT(parentco)islikelyWithanewlyintroducedRmbbncapextargetforGinE,andwithCMandCUhavingclarifiedtheirbudgetsatRmbbn(forTD)andRmbbn(assumeallofCU’smobilecapexbudgetisforGWCDMA)respectivelyfortheyear,thereisaremainderofRmbbnofadditionalcapexfortheyearEWebelievethisincreasesthelikelihoodthatCTmayreviseupitscapexforCDMAinEatitsMarchresultsmeetingCThadpreviouslyguidedforspendingRmbbnormorewithinmidthroughmidE,evenlyspreadoutoverthethreeyearsThisnowlookstoolowandwebelievethatasrivalsareacceleratingcapexandservicerollout,CTislikelytoincreasethethreeyearbudgetanddomorefrontendloadingofthecapexaswellThereisnoimpactonthelistcoascapexisbornebytheparentcoofCTandlistcoonlypaysleasingfeesatofrevenueThebiggestbeneficiaryofpotentialincreasesinCT’smobilecapexwouldbeChinaCommunicationServices(CCS,HK,Buy),inourview,whichnowhasshareinnetworkdesign,shareinconstruction,andsubstantialnetworkmaintenancecontractsfromCTaswellforCDMASubtargetsareconfoundingandmixedinpotentialimplicationsAroughindicationofaboutmGsubsperoperatorwithinthecomingthreeyearshasseveralmixedimplications:)ThismaysuggestthatthepreviouslyreportedmsubswithinthreeyearstargetsetforTDbytheMIIT(accordingtoSinacomarticleonJanthbutneverconfirmedbyCM)isnotfixed,whichispositiveforsentimenttowardsCM(althoughwedonotbelieveconsensusisreflectingmTDsubsforCMwithinyearsanyway))ThismaysuggestthattheregulatorexpectstheGmarkettobefairlyevenlysplitbetweenthethreeoperatorsgoingforwardandthatmarketsharegapsoverallmaynarrowsignificantlyovertimeasGpenetrationrises,whichispositiveforCUandCT)ThisconfirmsourviewthatrapidandacceleratedGcapexinvestmentwillinevitablyleadtoaggressivesubmigrationfromGtoG(forvoicenotjustdatacardswhichhasaverylimitedaddressablemarket)bytheoperators,whichisinherentlynegativeforthewholesectorasitsuggestslowerearningsvisibilityandgreatercompetitivelevels)CU’sguidanceofobtainingoftheGmarketormoreandChinahavingaboutmGsubswithinyearsappearstoberelativelyconsistentwiththeMIITtargetsmentionedCU’smanagementalsobelievesitwillreachRmbARPUforitsGsubswhich,ifachievedatthelowendofRmbARPUandassumingmWCDMAsubsbyE,wouldimplyaGrevenuebasewithinthreeyearsthatisapproximatelyequivalenttotheCUGSMGrevenuebaseinEInterconnectionpossibilitiesarequitevaried,butchangeismorelikelytobenetpositiveforthesmalleroperatorsTheindicatedICchangestoberesearchedaresaidbytheMIITtobeconsistenttothenewfullservicemarketstructureandconsistentwithcurrentICdevelopmenttrends,aswellaspreferentialtoTDThesearethreeveryinterestingconditionstomeetsimultaneously,inourviewWebelievethat‘consistencywithcurrentICdevelopmenttrends’referstothetrendofICdecliningglobally–astariffsfall,ICmustalsofallinordertoaccommodateadditionaltariffcutsandcheaperservicesfortheconsumerIndeed,inChina,thevoiceusageandJanuary,China:TelecomServicesGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSMSpermsgblendedretailpricehasbeenrapidlyapproachingtheICrateandICisnowuptoofretailinteroperatorvoiceusageWebelievethatthereferencetoadheringICregimetothenewfullservicemarketstructuresuggeststhatmorethanonetypeofICwillbeadjusted–likelyincludingbetweenmobileandmobile,betweenmobileandfixed,andSMSdata,etcWeretainthatallICchanges’totalimpactonearningsbyoperatorwillbeconsideredinadvanceofanyoneindividualadjustment,andthatmorelikelythannot,morethanoneadjustmentwillbeimplementedatonceGivingICpreferencetoTDmakessense,inourview,inthatTDwasneverintendedtobepartofanypotentialasymmetricalpolicytocurbdominance–whichwasonlyintendedtowardsGHowever,manyimplementationpossibilitiesexist,suchas(andcertainlynotlimitedto):a)cutTD’soutboundterminationfeetootheroperators,butnotcutforCMGorotheroperators,andannouncethisbeforeotherICchanges:ThiswouldbethebestcaseoutcomeforCMandthemostsupportiveoptiontoTD–implyingGsymmetryandGasymmetryinfavorofTDItishowevermoresentimentallypositivethanmateriallybeneficialtoearnings,sinceTDtrafficvolumewillbeminimalintheneartermasapercentageofCM’stotalinternetworktrafficortotalmarketvolumesb)adjustGterminationfeetobemorefavorableforthesmalleroperators–eitherviaasymmetricalstructureorasymmetricalcutinterminationfeefromthecurrentRmbmin–butexemptTDfromsuchunfavorablechangestoexplicitlyshowTDpreferenceInotherwords,GasymmetricallyfavorsCUCTandGissymmetricalThiswouldbemostfavorableforCUCTc)makeGICskewedinfavorofTDbutGICskewedinfavorofCUCT:Inthisscenario,bothGandGwouldbeasymmetrical,butwithdifferentbeneficiariesThiswouldstartoffbeingfavorabletoCUCTfortheneartomediumtermwhileGtrafficisfargreaterthanGtraffic,butoverthelongertermifCMcanmigratetraffictoGquickly,onceGtrafficexceedsGtraffic,thenthebalancewouldbeinfavorofCM,inourviewOutcomepossibilitiesarewideandextendbeyondtheabovepossibilitieslistedVariablesinclude:doestheTDICchangeapplytoGinternetworktrafficonlyoralsoGorfixedline,wouldICchangesinvolvemultipletypesofvoiceanddatatrafficwouldeverythingbeannouncedtogetherorwhichwouldcomefirstwhatisthemagnitudeoftheadjustments,etcWedobelievehoweverthat)anyoutcomewouldhavetheunderlyingrationaleofincentivizingfacilitatingCMtomigratecustomerstoTDfromGSMasquicklyaspossible)theregulatorisnotlikelytoadoptanysolutionthatmateriallynegativelyaffectstheearningsoutlookoftheweakerplayers,CUandCT,giventheiralreadystrugglingstatusThus,wewouldstillviewanycombinationofICchangesasmostlikelytobeonbalancepositiveforCUandCT,eveninspiteofintentiontoofferpreferentialICpoliciesforTDDetailedmeasurestosupportTDSCDMAdevelopmentOriginalChinesetextisfromtheMIITwebsiteEnglishtranslationisbyGoldmanSachsResearch工业和信息化部联合相关部委公布支持TDSCDMA发展政策措施为进一步支持自主创新、鼓励TDSCDMA加快发展工业和信息化部、国家发展改革委、财政部、国资委、科技部等部门制定了一系列支持TDSCDMA发展的财政支持、项目支持、网络建设、产品研发、业务应用、产业发展等扶持政策。具体包括:January,China:TelecomServicesGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchMIITandrelatedagenciespublishtheTDSCDMAsupportingpoliciesdevelopmentInordertofurthersupportselfinnovation,toencourageandexpediteTDSCDMAdevelopment,MIIT,NDRC(NationalDevelopmentReformCommission),MOF(MinistryofFinance),SASAC(StateownedAssetsSupervisionandAdministrationCommission),MinistryofScienceandTechnologyandotherrelevantdepartmentshaveresearchedanddecidedaseriesofpoliciessupportivetoTDSCDMAdevelopmentonfiscalsupport,projectsupport,networkconstruction,productRD,businessapplications,industrydevelopmentetcSpecifically,itincludes–一、加大财政政策支持力度。(一)落实促进TDSCDMA产业发展的财政政策。将TDSCDMA产业链研发和完善纳入电子发展基金和集成电路专项资金支持范围。TDSCDMA技术研发和设备制造厂家按照相关程序可以优先申请电子发展基金和集成电路专项资金支持。(二)将TDSCDMA产品和应用纳入政府采购扶持范围。按照国家自主创新产品认定管理规定将TDSCMDA相关产品纳入《政府采购自主创新产品目录》获得促进自主创新政府采购政策支持。Strengthenthefiscalpolicysupport)ToimplementandaccelerateTDSCDMAindustry’sdevelopmentpoliciesTDSCDMAvaluechainRDprojectswillbeeligibletoqualifyfortheElectronicDevelopmentGrantandIntegratedCircuitSpecialProjectsGrantsTDSCDMARDenterprisesandequipmentsupplierswillhaveprioritytoapplythespecialfundingsupportfromtheElectronicDevelopmentGrantandIntegratedCircuitSpecialProjectsGrantsinaccordancewiththerelevantprocedures)ToincludeTDSCDMAingovtagencyselfprocurementproductlistsAccordingtotherelatedmanagementpoliciesspecifyingthenationalselfinnovationproducts,toincludeTDSCDMArelatedproductsin‘Governmentagencyselfprocurementofselfinvocationproductlists’sothattobeeligibleforthegovernmentagencyselfprocurementpolicysupport二、加强国家重大科技专项和支撑项目支持。(三)加快国家重大专项TDSCDMA项目审批程序。在对TDSCDMA研发和产业化工作一直予以积极支持的基础上国家在年科技支撑计划和“新一代宽带无线移动通信网”国家科技重大专项中再次安排专项经费用于支持TDSCDMA研发和产业化。(四)将TDSCDMA项目纳入自主创新和高技术产业化基金。在自主创新和高技术产业化基金中安排部分资金用于支持TDSCDMA产业链等薄弱环节的建设。Strengthenthesupportto‘nationalsubstantialspecialtechnologyproject’and‘supportingproject’)Toexpeditetheapprovingproceduresof‘nationalsubstantialspecialtechnologyproject’TDSCDMAdevelopmentprojectOntopofthecontinuousproactivesupporttoTDSCDMARDandindustrialization,toallocatespecialprojectfundfrom‘nationaltechnologysupportproject’and‘thenewgenerationofwirelessbroadbandnetwork’project)ToincludeTDSCDMAintotheselfinnovationandhightechindustrializationfundToallocatepartofthefundtostrengthenandsupporttheweakerlinksintheTDSCDMAvaluechainJanuary,China:TelecomServicesGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch三、协调推进TDSCDMA网络建设。(五)大力支持TDSCDMA网络建设。积极协调相关部委和地方政府在基站选址、市政规划、管道建设、电力引入等方面继续给予支持加快TDSCDMA建设进度。(六)推进电信基础设施共建共享。积极协调运营企业及相关单位在铁塔、杆路、管道等电信基础设施的共建共享中大力支持TDSCDMA网络建设建立基础设施共建共享责任制对于故意阻碍TDSCDMA网络建设需要的铁塔、杆路、管道共建共享的将对责任人给予严厉处分。CoordinateandpromotetheTDSCDMAnetworkconstructions)TovigorouslysupporttheTDSCDMAnetworkconstructionsProactivelycoordinatewiththerelatedministriesandlocalgovernments,tosupportthebasestationciteselection,municipalplanning,tunnelsconstructions,electricityintroductionetc,toexpeditetheTDconstructionprogress)TopromotethecobuildandsharingofTelecombasicinfrastructuresProactivelycoordinatewithoperatorsandrelevantenterprises,tosupportTDSCDMAnetworkconstructionthroughthecobuildandsharingoftelecombasicinfrastructuresuchastowers,backbones,tunnelsandpipesetctosetuptheresponsibilityschemefortheinfrastructurecobuildandsharingTothosewhointentionallyimpedethecobuildandsharingofthetowersandbackbonesthatareneededforTDconstruction,toseriouslypenalizetheresponsiblepersons四、加快推进TDSCDMA产业研发和业务应用。(七)加强TDSCDMA产业研发与完善。在国家科技支撑计划和国家重大专项中安排TDSCDMA增强技术HSUPA的关键技术研究、系统和终端产品研发以及试验验证工作。年将完成项HSUPA标准的制定实现TDSCDMA现网升级支持HSUPA技术提供HSUPA商用终端进一步提升TDSCDMA数据业务能力。(八)引导和推进基于TDSCDMA网络的G业务应用。鼓励TDSCDMA技术在电子政务、应急管理、无线城市、农村信息化、电子商务及其他行业领域的应用为TDSCDMA业务应用创造便利条件开展行业协调促进业务推广。(九)明确TDSCDMA技术长期持续发展方向。确立TDLTE作为TDSCDMA后续演进技术通过“新一代宽带无线移动通信网”国家重大专项的实施积极稳妥地组织产学研用各方面力量开展TDLTE关键技术研究样机开发和试验验证工作。ExpediteandpromotetheTDindustryRDandbusinessapplication)TostrengthenandimprovetheTDSCDMAindustryRDToaddRDonHSUPAkeytechnologies,systemandterminalsdevelopmentandtrialworktothe‘nationaltechnologysupportingplan’and‘nationalsubstantialspecialtechnologyprojectfund’TocompleteitemswithinHSUPAstandardizationby,toachievetheupgradeofexistingTDSCDMAnetworkstosupportHSUPA,toprovideHSUPAcommercialterminals,andtofurtherimprovetheTDSCDMAdataapplications)ToleadandpromotetheTDSCDMAbasedGapplicationsToencouragetheTDSCDMAusageineadministrativematters,emergencymanagement,wirelesscityprojects,informatizationofruralareas,ecommerceandotherindustriesTofacilitateTDSCDMAapplications,coordinatewithvariousindustriesandexpeditebusinesspromotionsJanuary,China:TelecomServicesGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch)TomakeclearthelongtermdevelopmentdirectionofTDSCDMAToestablishTDLTEastheeventualmigrationpathofTDSCDMAToproactivelyandsteadilyorganizetheindustryandacademicresearchforces,throughtheimplementationof‘newgenerationofwirelessbroadbandnetwork’nationalspecialfund,tocommenceresearchonTDLTEkeytechnologies,sampleterminaldevelopmentandtrialworks五、做好行业管理与服务支持。(十)加大对TDSCDMA频率资源支持力度。从第三代移动通信全球统一划分的核心频段中先期给中国移动分配了MHz作为TDSCDMA系统使用频率并为后续发展预留了足够的频率资源明确要求各地无线电管理部门采取积极措施落实频率政策加强无线电监测和干扰查处力度做好TDSCDMA的电磁环境保护切实为TDSCDMA网络建设目标的顺利推进提供资源保障。(十一)积极做好TDSCDMA等G终端设备进网工作。继续开辟绿色通道全力支持TDSCDMA设备进网检测和审批鼓励新技术与TDSCDMA结合优先保证与TDSCDMA结合的上网手机、固定终端、家庭网关等新型终端检测工作组织专门技术力量为TDSCDMA设备制造厂家研发改进完善相关产品提供上门服务。对已获得进网许可证的TDSCDMA及其他G终端组织证后监督产品质量抽查保证产品质量和一致性,确保用户良好体验。(十二)研究提出促进TDSCDMA发展的优惠结算政策。进一步研究建立适应全业务市场格局、符合网间结算发展趋势的网间结算体系对TDSCDMA给予网间结算优惠政策。Managetheindustryandsupportingservices)StrengthenthesupportonTDSCDMAspectrumallocationAllocateMhzTDSCDMAspecificspectrumtoChinaMobileamongtheglobalGcorespectrummaps,andpreparesenoughspectrumresourcesforfurtherdevelopmentexplicitlyrequirethemunicipalwirelessministriestoadoptproactivemeasurestoimplementthespectrumpolicies,tostrengthenthepenaltyonwirelessmonitoringandinterventionToprotecttheelectromagneticenvironmentofTDSCDMAandtoprovideresourcesforthesmoothnessofTDSCDMAconstruction)ToproactivelypromotetheTDSCDMAterminalsandequipments‘onnet’permitworkContinuetoopenthe‘fasttrack’channel,tosupportinfullforcefortheexaminationandapprovaloftheTDequipment‘onnet’p

用户评价(0)

关闭

新课改视野下建构高中语文教学实验成果报告(32KB)

抱歉,积分不足下载失败,请稍后再试!

提示

试读已结束,如需要继续阅读或者下载,敬请购买!

文档小程序码

使用微信“扫一扫”扫码寻找文档

1

打开微信

2

扫描小程序码

3

发布寻找信息

4

等待寻找结果

我知道了
评分:

/11

高盛-中国电信市场分析

VIP

在线
客服

免费
邮箱

爱问共享资料服务号

扫描关注领取更多福利