行为经济学PPT

??????? ?????????? ??: ??? (????) ??? (???) 2 ? ? 1. Traditional Economics & Behavior Economics ?????????????? 2. Psychological basis ????? 3. Prospect theory ???? Traditional Economics--??? 1.???????????????????? ???????????犠????????? ?? 2.???????????????????? ??????????????? 3.????????????????? (????????) 4 Behavior Economics???????? Bounded rationality (????)-Simon ??????????????????????? ??????????????????????? ??????????????????????? ?????????????????????? ?????????????????? --????? 5 Psychological basis • 1960s?? –???? J.B. Watson –?????????? ????????? • ??-???? – ( Stimulation – response formula ?S-R ?? ) ?? ?????? ???????? ???? 6 • 1960s ??????? ?????????–information processing psychology • ????computer ?? • ??-??-????–(Stimulation-operation- response formula;S-O-R ??) ???? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 7 ?????????? ???(Homo economics)??????? 1.???????????????? 2.?????????????????? ???? 8 ???(Homo sapines)???????? ??????? 1.???????????????? 2.????????????????? ??? 3.????????????????? ???????? 9 Operation System ? Information Processor ? Self-defense mechanism 10 Psychological bias (Operative bias ) Psychological errors ( Cognitive / Behavior errors) 11 HeuristicHeuristic ( ( ???? )) --???????????????? ???????? ( ( KahnemanKahneman & & TverskyTversky )) ????????( Super( Super--ego)ego) • Representative heuristic??????? ????????????????????? ????????????????????? ? • Availability heuristic??????? ????????????????????? ????????????????????? ??????? 12 • Anchoring effect?????? ?????????????????? ?? ?????????????????? ??????? • Ambiguous aversion ( home bias ) (?? ??) ????????????????????? ???????? 13 • Frame dependence(????) ????????????????????? 14 ??????????EgoEgo?? • Self-attribution/illusion of control ?????head I win, tails it’s chance.? ??????????? • Over-optimism?????? ???????????????80%??? ?????????? • Over-confidence?????? ???????????????????? ??????(not well calibrated) 15 • Cognitive dissonance?????? ???????????????????? ?????(mental confliction) • Confirmation bias?????? ???????????????????? ???????????????????? ???? • Conservation bias?????? ??????????????? 16 Prospect theory- ( ( KahnemanKahneman & & TverskyTversky )) --??????????????????? ???????????????????? ???????????????????? ????? 17 z???? – ?Editing?( ??????????) 1.???2.???3.???4.?? ?Evaluation?( ????????? prospect ??) 1.?????2.???? 18 1.???? ????????????????????? ???????????????????? ????????????????????? ????????????????? 2.???? ????????????????????? ????????????????????? ????????????????????? ?? • Prospect = ??(Pi)?V(Xi-r) 19 ?????????????????? 20 ???????????????????????????????????????? 21 ???????????????? ???????????? ????????? ???????????????? ??? ????????? 22 ???????????? 23 ???????????????????????? Samuelson and Zeckhauser(1998), Johnson el al.(1993) ????????? ?????????? ? ????????? Shea(1995), Bowman, Minehart and Rabin(1999) ?????????? ?????????? ??????? ???? ????? Hardie, Johnson and Fader(1993) ?????????? ??????? ??????? ? ????? Camerer et al.(1997) ?????????? ?????? ??????? ???? ????? ?????????? 24 ???????? ???????? ????????