基于灰色关联的河南省粮食生产影响因素分析_英文_李秋芳

Factors Influencing Grain Production of Henan Province Based on Gray Correlation LI Qiu-fang1，KANG Guo-lei2，LI Xiao-fang3，LI Bing-jun1* 1． College of Information and Management Science，Henan Agricultural University，Zhengzhou，450002，China;2． Modern Education Technolo- gy Center，Zhengzhou Institute of Light Industry，Zhengzhou 450002，China;3． Financial Division of Henan Agricultural University，Zhengzhou 450002，China Abstract The authors analyze the existing problems and macroscopic factors influencing grain production of Henan Province，and then carry out an empirical study on the correlation between grain production and eight influencing factors in Henan Province of China by using the gray correlation analysis method． Finally，this paper puts forward related suggestions． Key words Grain production;Input factor;Gray correlation analysis;China Received:March 27，2009 Accepted:May 10，2009 * Corresponding author． E-mail:lilylee_0819@126． com There is an ancient Chinese saying that " Food is What Matters to the People" ． Grain production has always been re- lated to human survival，economic development and social sta- bility，as well as the harmonious development of society，poli- tics and economy of China． Henan Province is located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River of the mid-eastern China． It is one of the oldest agricultural production areas in China with relatively high degree of land development and utili- zation． Therefore，the available reserved land resources are scarce in Henan Province，especially the reserved arable land resources． Besides，Henan is a province of large population． But its arable land per capita is less than 1 /4 of the national av- erage and shows a downward trend year by year． Henan Prov- ince feeds nearly 8% of the population with only 17% of the na- tional arable land． Thus，there is tremendous bearing pressure on the arable land of Henan Province． With the continuous in- crease of population and the rapid development of industrializa- tion and urbanization，the safety of food production will be seri- ously threatened． Therefore，it is particularly important to exca- vate the potential of grain production，and to analyze the influ- encing factors of grain production capacity and production pros- pects in Henan Province． 1 Problems in grain production of Henan Province Henan Province was unable to get rid of the " strange circle of fluctuation" since the year 1980，that is，grain production in the next year would surely be reduced after more than 2 or 3 years' yield increase． This situation lasted to the year 2004． In that year，the state promulgated a series of agricultural policies favorable to peasants，which greatly enhanced the peasants' enthusiasm for grain planting． Moreover，Henan Province in- vested in agricultural infrastructure in order to improve this situ- ation． After 2004，grain yield shows an increasing trend year by year． Summer crop has broken 50 billion kg for consecutive 3 years in 2008，and has hit the historical record for 5 consecu- tive years，which has made new contribution to the grain pro- duction of China． But the prospect of grain production in Henan Province is still very grim． 1． 1 Grim situation of the production of summer crops 1． 1． 1 Serious pests and diseases damage of wheat． Rela- tively large groups of wheat are formed due to the warm winter in recent years． Thus，the pests and diseases damage hap- pens early in each year with the characteristics of rapid spread and large area． According to statistics，wheat stripe rust even occurs on November 7，2007，one month earlier than the nor- mal years． Wheat diseases and pests in Henan Province have damaged a total area of 746． 67 ×104 hm2 until the early April， 2008，increasing by 140． 00 ×104 hm2 compared with the nor- mal years． Wheat disease like this is rare in history over the same period． 1． 1． 2 Reduction of effective irrigation area． Soil moisture mo- nitoring in late March，2008 shows that soil moisture in most wheat fields is appropriate，except that the relative humidity at the 0 －50 cm soil of Zhumadian，Luohe，Nanyang，Pingdings- han and other areas is between 40% and 60%，which is mild to moderate drought． Total drought area in Henan Province is about 66． 67 × 104 hm2． And drought has been aggravated in northern，central and southwestern Henan until the early April． Wheat in April is generally at booting or heading stage，so more water is needed and the water consumption is relatively rapid． If drought can not be eased，the normal growth and output of wheat will be affected． 1． 1． 3 Low efficiency of field management． Recently，the number of migrant workers has increased year by year． Thus， the young and middle-aged rural labor force is lacked，and food production is under extensive management． Besides， labor forces engaged in grain production have generally low level of education and weak sense of market and information． They are Asian Agricultural Research /亚洲农业研究 2009，1(5):23 －27 Responsible editor:Jinyan Responsible translator:Chengna hard to accept new technology，and can not adapt to the devel- opment of modern agricultural production． 1． 2 High costs for agricultural production during spring cultivation，which influences the peasants' enthusiasm for production inputs The overall supply in agricultural commod- ities market is sufficient in Henan Province，but the price is rel- atively high，which enhances the cost of cultivation． At present， prices of fertilizer，seeds，pesticides and farm diesel in Henan market have increased compared with those over the same pe- riod last year． Among them，prices of fertilizer，agricultural diesel，agricultural film，pesticides，and seed have raised by 5． 8%，13． 3%，7． 1%，and 2 ． 0%，respectively． As a result， price rise of agricultural material products has offset the agricul- tural policy benefits for peasants to some extent，and has re- duced peasants' enthusiasm for production inputs． 1． 3 The aged irrigation and water conservancy facilities; the low ability to resist natural disasters In recent years， with the implementation of a series of benefiting-farmers policy by the central government，agricultural infrastructure in Henan Province has been improved． But it is still relatively weak on the whole;and the ability to resist natural disasters is poor． Be- sides，there are many problems in agricultural irrigation and water conservancy facilities，such as the poor maintenance， functional degradation，and slow renovation． Until the end of 2006，Henan Province has a total of 390． 90 ×104 hm2 of fields irrespective of drought or waterlogging，only occupying about 50% of the total arable land． This results in the relatively low ability to resist natural disasters during agricultural production． Since the year 2003，grain production reduces by about 800 × 104 t due to drought or waterlogging disasters． Therefore，prob- lem in irrigation and water conservancy facilities is still one of the main factors restricting the sustainable and stable develop- ment of grain production in Henan Province［1］． 2 Macroscopic influencing factors of grain production capacity in Henan Province 2． 1 The unstable grain price and uncertain income which in- fluence peasants' enthusiasm for grain production Grain prices in the first half years of 2003 and 2006 are high． Implementa- tion of a series of polices to promote grain product conducted by the state and Henan Province has stimulated the rapid develop- ment of grain production［2］． Though the grain price rises，plant- ing crops still obtains relatively low benefits compared with planting economic crops and working in cities． Benefits of grain planting have reduced significantly due to the decline in grain price and the rise in agricultural commodity in the second half year of 2005，which has very adverse impacts on food produc- tion． According to the sampling survey on 4 060 peasants households in 42 counties by the Survey Organization of Henan Province，the National Bureau of Statistics in 2006，we can ob- tain that the rapeseed sowing has decreased by 4． 67 ×104 hm2 due to the climate factor． Grain sowing area of the whole prov- ince has only increased by 0． 8% while the planning area by wheat is enlarged by 4． 67 ×104 hm2;and the increasing range has declined by 1． 2% in 2006 compared with that in 2005． Therefore，peasants usually choose planting economic crops or working in cities rather than planting crops． 2． 2 The lack of flexibility in land contract;the implemen- tation of extensive management Different regions have their own policies for adjusting the contracted land of peasants be- fore agricultural tax relief，so that land transfer can be reasona- bly carried out． However，after the agricultural tax relief，rea- sonable transfer of land is lacked with the uneven distribution of land;and the scientific and modern farming is hard to be achieved． Therefore，adjustment of land has not only become a problem for the reform and development in rural areas，but also is one of the prominent problems affecting current grain production． 2． 3 Influence of grain marketing policy National food poli- cy is an important guarantee for the construction of food securi- ty system in China． Corresponding food policy is constituted in different historical periods，so as to guarantee the national food supply and social stability，and to promote the coordinated de- velopment of social economy． Government of Henan Province has advanced the Announcement of the Overall Implementation of the Reform of Grain Marketing System in 2004． Meanwhile， a series of new policies for deepening the reform of grain circu- lation system are issued． But the financial burden of Henan Province is too heavy;and income of grain production is greatly affected by the price of grain market． Besides，the long-term mechanism to promote the stable production of grain and the steady income growth of peasants has not yet been established． 2． 4 Complicated impact of market on grain production Grain market has remained relatively stable at present． However，with the deepening of the reform of grain marketing system，both the market subject for grain management and the quantity of grain circula- tion have increased sharply． What's more，general layout in food production and consumption has changed along with heav- ier task of macroeconomic regulation and control of grain， which has put forward new demands on the market system of grain． Practice has proved that changes in the market will have very complicated impact on grain production． At the same time， domestic production has been affected by the international mar- ket． The significant increase in the international market price of grain at present has a limited direct impact on domestic market． However，based on an overall consideration of various factors， it is concluded that grain price in China will still maintain its as- cending tendencies for a long time in future． 3 Comprehensive production capacity of grain in Henan Province 3．1 Comprehensive production capacity and level of grain in Henan Province Comprehensive production capacity of grain is the sum of the actual grain yield and the reduced production due to pest disasters． While comprehensive production level is the comprehensive production capacity of grain per unit area． Sowing area of grain crops in Henan Province has changed greatly in recent years，due to the variation of agricultural policy and the adjustment of grain structure． Sowing area of grain is in the state of fluctuation from 1980 to 2000;and the planting area 42 Asian Agricultural Research 2009 of grain crops has steadily increased year by year from 2001 to 2005． Until the year 2005，total area of grain has reached 9 153．41 ×103 hm2，increasing by 330． 61 ×103 hm2(3． 0%)． However，the proportion of grain sowing area in total sowing ar- ea of crops shows a downward trend． The actual grain produc- tion is increasing year by year (except the yield reduction in 2003，due to the extraordinary serious natural disaster)with the increasing extent of 11． 0%． Grain production capacity over the same period has enhanced by 441． 06 × 104 t (only the years 2004 and 2005 are compared，because the data of 2001 and 2002 are incomplete and the year 2003 is unusual)． As a result of the scientific and technological progress，comprehen- sive production level of grain has improved by 39． 0% under the condition of little enhancement in sowing area［3］． 3． 2 Gray correlation analysis on factors influencing the grain production capacity in Henan Province Gray correla- tion mathematical analysis is an important aspect of Gray Sys- tems Analysis． It is a method to quantitatively describe and compare a certain system development status，the essence of which is to compare the geometric relationship of the time se- ries reflecting factor change． And the aim of gray correlation a- nalysis is to find the main factors and the impact degree during the process of system development． Gray correlation degree is the correlation degree of two systems or two factors in a system changing with time and speed(one is the main behavior factor， the other is the related behavior factor)［3 －5］． During the process of system development，we can use the sequencing of correlation degree to analyze which factors affect the main be- havior factors，and which factors have little impact． Factor hav- ing big correlation degree means it has relatively greater impact on the main behavior factor;and factor having small correlation degree has no or few impact． Therefore，gray correlation anal- ysis can distinguish between dominant factor and potential fac- tor，and between strengths and weaknesses;it lays the foun- dation for analysis and evaluation． In other words，gray correla- tion analysis is a factor analysis of system;it is the quantitative analysis of the development process of system． It can measure the approaching degree of factors according to the development status and (dis)similarity degree of factors［6 － 8］． Calculation steps of correlation degree are as follows: (1)Give out the original sequence． Reference sequence is x0(k)={x0(1) ，x0(2) ，…，x0(n) }． And m comparative sequences are: x1(k)={x1(1) ，x1(2) ，…，x1(n) } x2(k)={x2(1) ，x2(2) ，…，x2(n) }      xm(k)={xm(1) ，xm(2) ，…，xm(n { ) } (2)Carry out dimensionless form of variable sequence． Dimensionless calculation of original data is carried out by the Mean Method，Initial Value Method，Interval Method and so on． We adopt the Initial Value Method to calculate the refer- ence sequence y0(k) ，and comparative sequence yi(k) (i = 1，2 ，…，m;k =1，2，…，n)． (3)Obtain absolute difference sequence． Reference se- quence y0(k) ，comparative sequence yi(k) (i =1，2 ，…，m; k = 1，2，…，n)． The absolute value of differences at corre- sponding point k (k =1 ，2 ，…，n;observation time or the num- ber of observed objects)has constituted an absolute difference sequence △0i(k) : △01(k)= |y0(k)－ y1(k)| ={△1(1) ，△1(2) ，…，△1(n) } △02(k)= |y0(k)－ y2(k)| ={△2(1) ，△2(2) ，…，△2(n) }       △0m(k)= |y0(k)－ ym(k)| ={△m(1) ，△m(2) ，…，△m(n) } { ． (4)Find out the maximum absolute difference(△max)and the minimum absolute difference (△min)in the absolute differ- ence sequence． (5)Calculate the gray correlation coefficient． ζ i(k)= min i min k |y0(k)－yi(k)| +ρ maxi maxk |y0(k)－yi(k)| |y0(k)－yi(k)| +ρ maxi maxk |y0(k)－yi(k)| ， where ζ(k)is the correlation coefficient between comparative sequence and reference sequence at the kth time period，ρ is the resolution coefficient with its value between 0 and 1 (0．5 in this paper) ，min min |y0(k) － yi(k)| is the secondary mini- mum difference，max max |y0(k) － yi(k)| is the secondary maximum difference，i is the line number of data，and k is the row number of data． (6)Work out the gray correlation degree． There are many correlation coefficients with dispersed information，which is not suitable to compare． Therefore，it is necessary to convergent the correlation coefficients at different time periods into one val- ue． And calculating the mean value is a way to solve this prob- lem． General expression of correlation degree is γ a = 1 n ∑ n k =1 ε a (k)= 1n {ε a(1)+ε a(2)+… +ε a(n) }，whereγ is the correla- tion degree of between comparative sequence and reference sequence． It is generally believed that if γa is bigger，the factor has greater impact on reference factor［9］． After carrying out the qualitative judgments on the factors influencing grain production，we use the grain production of Henan Province X0(t) (t =1990，1991，…，2007)as the main behavior factor，and select eight related behavior factors affect- ing the total grain output，which are the index of sowing area of grain crops (X1) ，index of labor force (X2) ，index of rural electricity consumption(X3) ，fertilizer index (X4) ，index of ag- ricultural plastics (X5) ，index of pesticides application (X6) ， index of total agricultural machinery power (X7) ，and index of effective irrigation area (X8) ［10］(Table 1)． 3． 3 Analysis of results Table 2 reports that the importance degree of the main behavior factors affecting the grain produc- tion of Henan Province is effective irrigation area ＞ labor force ＞ sowing area of grain crops ＞ application of fertilizer ＞ total agricultural machinery power ＞ rural electricity consumption ＞ application of pesticides ＞ agricultural plastics． ① Effective irri- gation area has the greatest impact on grain production． In oth- er words，effective irrigation area has played a crucial role in the improvement of grain production． Henan Province has in- tensified the efforts on the construction of agricultural infrastruc- ture in recent years;and notable progress has been made in 52LI Qiu-fang et al． Factors Influencing Grain Production of Henan Province Based on Gray Correlation supplement auxiliary project and water saving rebuilding in large irrigation areas． At the year 2007，the effective irrigation area in Henan Province has reached 491． 49 ×104 hm2，accounting for about 70% of the total arable land． Thus，effective irrigation ar- ea has become an important factor affecting grain production due to the implementation of a number of major agricultural in- frastructure projects in Henan Province． ② Correlation degree between grain production and labor force ranks the second，in- dicating that agricultural production is still extensive in Henan Province to a certain degree，and more time and labor forces should be put in order to improve grain output． Input of labor force directly affects the grain production． ③ Sowing area of grain crops is the basic guarantee of grain production． Grain sowing area from 1990 to 2007 increases a little，and some- times even declines，but the total grain output still shows an up- ward tendency． Therefore，it can be concluded that the sowing area of grain crops has no significant direct pulling function on grain production． And the space for increasing grain production by solely expanding sowing area is getting smaller and smaller． Overall planning of land use in Henan Province (1997 －2010) has advanced that we should improve the capacity of grain pro- duction by using the existing arable land and land production potential with the objective of maintaining the area of arable land． ④ Fertilizer consumption has relatively great function on the grain production of Henan Province． Statistics show that a little more fertilizer consumption has caused substantial in- crease of grain output． However，an over-reliance on chemical fertilizers not only boosts the production cost，but also results in consolidated land，soil degradation，and poor grain quality and taste． ⑤ Rural electricity consumption，pesticides application and agricultural plastics take the last three places，indicating that the level of agricultural modernization is still low in Henan Province，and the resistant ability to pests and disasters is weak． Table 1 Related index of grain production in Henan Province from 1990 to 2007 Year X0 ×104 t X1 ×103 hm2 X2 ×104 X3 ×10