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首页 20130106 《巴伦周刊》Barron.pdf

20130106 《巴伦周刊》Barron.pdf

20130106 《巴伦周刊》Barron.pdf

上传者: hello_wuy_f1bjh 2014-01-05 评分1 评论0 下载3 收藏0 阅读量590 暂无简介 简介 举报

简介:本文档为《20130106 《巴伦周刊》Barronpdf》,可适用于财会税务领域,主题内容包含MARKETBEATERSINSIDETHISISSUEOURQUARTERLYGUIDETOMUTUALFUNDSMarketWeekPullou符等。

MARKETBEATERSINSIDETHISISSUEOURQUARTERLYGUIDETOMUTUALFUNDSMarketWeekPulloutDowNotchesGaininRecordYearFinishesWeekFlatPageMNationalOilwellVarcoCouldRisePageJanuary,WhosaysthemarketsareefficientUsinganinvestmentstrategybuiltaroundthepioneeringworkofNobelPrizewinningeconomistEugeneFama,DimensionalFundAdvisorshasdeliveredastoundingresultsTheDowJonesBusinessandFinancialWeeklyVolXCIVNobarronscom$UPDOWNWALLST•WhogetshurtbyrisingwagesSTREETWISE•SplitsvilleforstocksplitsTIMBERTROUBLE•PlumCreek’sdividenddilemmaEARNINGSOUTLOOK•estimateslooktoohighGAININGGROUND•ThecaseforeconomicgrowthSECONDARYISSUES•BewaretechsbearingofferingsBURNINGRUBBER•MFiatcoulddoubleintwoyearsSubscriptionsCustomerService:EugeneFama,left,withDFACoCEODavidBoothBARRON’SJanuary,Investorsshouldcarefullyconsiderafund’sinvestmentobjectives,risks,fees,chargesandexpensesbeforeinvestinganymoneyToobtainthisandotherfundinformation,pleasecalltorequestaprospectus,ordownloadaprospectusatwwwaberdeenassetusPleasereadtheprospectuscarefullybeforeinvestinganymoneyFixedincomesecuritiesaresubjecttocertainrisksincluding,butnotlimitedto:interestrate(changesininterestratesmaycauseadeclineinthemarketvalueofaninvestment),credit(changesinthefinancialconditionoftheissuer,borrower,counterparty,orunderlyingcollateral),prepayment(debtissuersmayrepayorrefinancetheirloansorobligationsearlierthananticipated),andextension(principalrepaymentsmaynotoccurasquicklyasanticipated,causingtheexpectedmaturityofasecuritytoincrease)Noninvestmentgradedebtsecurities(highyieldjunkbonds)maybesubjecttogreatermarketfluctuations,riskofdefaultorlossofincomeandprincipalthanhigherratedsecuritiesDerivativesarespeculativeandmayhurttheFund’sperformanceTheypresenttheriskofdisproportionatelyincreasedlossesandorreducedgainswhenthefinancialassetormeasuretowhichthederivativeislinkedchangesinunexpectedwaysForeignsecuritiesaremorevolatile,hardertopriceandlessliquidthanUSsecuritiesandaresubjecttodifferentaccountingandregulatorystandards,andpoliticalandeconomicrisksTheserisksareenhancedinemergingmarketscountriesAberdeenFunds,AberdeenInvestmentFundsandAberdeenGlobalSelectOpportunitiesFundIncaredistributedbyAberdeenFundDistributorsLLC,MemberFINRAandSIPCMarketStreet,ndFloor,Philadelphia,PA“Aberdeen”isaUSregisteredservicemarkofAberdeenAssetManagementPLCNOTFDICINSURED|NOBANKGUARANTEE|MAYLOSEVALUEAberdeenGlobalHighIncomeFundToachieveastrongyieldintoday’slowrateworldwebelieveyouneedtheflexibilitytocapturethebestopportunitiesTheAberdeenGlobalHighIncomeFundseeksattractivelypricedcompanieswithstrongfundamentals–fromEuropetoAsia,fromtheUStoemergingeconomiesThroughactivemanagementandbyexpandingtheinvestmentuniverse,weaimtokeepyourincomeyieldingoodshapeFormoreinformationpleasevisitaberdeenassetusfixedincomeMoreflexibleformorepotentialCYANYELLOWBLACKCompositeCompositeCMYKPBWWFDFFCL,DM,EE,EU,FL,MW,NC,NE,NY,PH,PN,RM,SA,SC,SW,TU,WEBG,BM,BP,CC,CH,CK,CP,CT,DN,DR,FW,HL,LA,LG,LK,MI,ML,PI,PV,TD,WOPBWWFDFFTECNAVIACROPPDFINORIGcrop=January,TableofContentssDowJonesCompany,IncAllRightsReservedThisDrillingSpecialistHasTeethJackHoughWithitsmodeststockvaluationandsolidgrowthpotential,NationalOilwelloffersacombinationthat’sindwindlingsupplylatelyPlumCreek’sRockyOutlookSandraWardThetimberconcern’ssharepricecouldsplinterasitgetsmorecreativeaboutfundingitsoperationsandheftydividendLookoutbelowInvescoCouldShineinLawrenceCStraussSavvyleadershipandstrongassetgrowtharelikelytomakeforanothergoodyearfortheAtlantabasedmoneymanagerAnEnthusiasticThumbsUpRichardCMoraisPENTA:FilmmakerAlexanderPaynehasaknackfortacklingpricklyissuesoffamilyandwealthinawitty,lifeaffirmingwayBoldTastes,ConservativeBentSteveGarmhausenTHEBESTADVICE:DestinationWealthManagementfounderMichaelYoshikamiisfindinggoodvalueinwirelesstechandotherUSstocksANeedforAccountabilityJosephHMarrenOTHERVOICES:GovernmentfinancesareinworseshapethanpoliticalleaderswouldhaveusbelieveSiccingtheSupremeCourtonthecaseSlimChanceforTaxReformThomasGDonlanEDITORIALCOMMENTARY:Politicianstalkthetalkaboutreformingthenation’sdysfunctionaltaxsystemButtheyrefusetowalkthewalkColumnsUpDownWallStreetKopinTanIsthebigsurgeinbuybacksworthcelebratingStreetwiseBenLevisohnFindingbargainsamongstocksthatsportlowpricesFollowUpPuertoRicodebtUniPixelReviewPreviewWhatwillbethebiggestsurpriseofEconomicBeatGeneEpsteinNoPollyanna,justarealistTechTraderTiernanRayBewarethecostofliferaftsthrowntoflailingfirmsTheElectronicInvestorMikeHoganAnewwaytomanageriskPlus,Gadget:AsusRTACUandAppleAirPortExtremeDCCurrentJimMcTagueRollingoutawelcomematforforeigninvestorsBalancingtheBooksHealthcarefromabusinessperspectiveClimateeconomicsAnindictmentoftheFederalReserveAnd,TheDeathofCorporateReputationSpeakingofDividendsShirleyALazoAbanneryearforpayoutsSPECIALREPORT:Barron’sLipperMutualFundQuarterlyLookingAhead:NoTimeforComplacencyADifferentDimension:DavidBoothbuiltDFAtoharnessthepowerofEugeneFama’spioneeringresearchLQAWithDonPhillips:Morningstar’smanagingdirectorontheindustry’spast,present,andfutureLAscentoftheFallenStars:Picksfromactivemanagerswho’vecomethrougharoughspellLAnalysts’profitforecastsforthenewyearlookoverlyoptimisticBarronscomPulloutsStartAfterPagesandMChartingtheMarketMTheTraderVitoJRacanelliFavoritesectorsforMEuropeanTraderJonathanBuckFiatinthefastlaneMAsianTraderLesliePNortonAttractiveplaysinJapanMEmergingMarketsPrabhaNatarajanWarmingtoGulfnationsMWinnersLosersMCurrentYieldMichaelAneiroAsloppyoutlookforjunkMDFilingsMStrikingPriceSteveSosnickForgetthe“Fedput”MCommoditiesCornerLeslieJosephsAstrainonorangecropsMResearchReportsMInsiderTransactionsMMarketWatchCoverPhotographMatthewMahonforBarron’sIndextoCompaniesMailbagFixingUShealthcareisaHerculeantaskClassifiedMBARRON’S(USPS)(ISSN)PublishedeveryMondayEditorialandPublicationHeadquarters:AvenueoftheAmericas,NewYork,NYPeriodicalspostagepaidatChicopee,MAandothermailingofficesPostmaster:SendaddresschangestoBarron’s,BurnettRd,Chicopee,MABARRON’SJanuary,SPEAKINGOFDIVIDENDSnbyShirleyALazoStellarYearforPayoutsOftheDowstocks,boostedtheirdividendsinALLMAJORUSEQUITYINDEXESHADAbanneryearinDittocorporateearnings,cashflow,andofcourse,dividends,eventhoughsomefirstquarterdividendswerepaidin’sfourthquarter,alongwithabevyofheftyspecialpayouts,tohelpinvestorsavoidpossiblehighertaxesowingtothefiscaltugofwarinWashingtonDespitepoliticalandeconomichurdles,theDowJonesIndustrialAveragerangoutup(withreinvesteddividends),itsbestreturnsinceThatputtheDowmorethan,pointsaboveitsbearmarketlowTheSPpostedagain(withdividends),adding$trillioninmarketvalue,plus$billionindividends(aheadof’s$billion),foritsbestyearsinceHowever,payoutratios(dividendsasapercentageofnetincome)remainverylow,withcompaniesdisbursingonlyofwhattheymake,versushistoricallyTheDowstockssawplentyofpositivedividendactioninHere’showtheyearshapedup,startingwiththefinalquarterBarron’sstatisticsdirectorPeterMillercountedpayoutenhancementsamongtheindustrials:ATT(ticker:T),Boeing(BA),WaltDisney(DIS),GeneralElectric(GE),GoldmanSachs(GS),McDonald’s(MCD),Merck(MRK),Microsoft(MSFT),M(MMM),Nike(NKE),Pfizer(PFE),UnitedTechnologies(UTX),Verizon(VZ),andVisa(V)However,MickeyD,Microsoft,andVerizonmadetheirdeclarationsinthethirdquarter,whileATT,Boeing,Disney,GE,Merck,Nike,Pfizer,andMwillpaylaterthisquarterThreecomponentchangestookplaceinthethirdquarter:Alcoa(AA),HewlettPackard(HPQ),andBankofAmerica(BAC)werereplacedbyNike,Visa,andGoldmanSachsAsfordividendactivityamongtheDowtransportsinOctoberDecember,thelonenewactionwasacentspecialdeclaredbyLandstarSystem(LSTR),whichgetspaidthismonthThatspecialwasthecompany’sonlydeclaration,butitpaidacentbonusinDecembertopotentiallybenefitinvestorstaxwiseUnionPacific(UNP)paidahigherdividend,butithadbeenannouncedinthethirdquarterAquartetofutilitiesturnedupthevoltageonfourthquarterdividends:AES(AES),AmericanElectricPower(AEP),EdisonInternational(EIX),andWilliamsCos(WMB),althoughAESandEdisonpaytheirnewdividendsthisquarterForasawhole,byMiller’sreckoning,theindustrialsdisbursedacombined$toinvestors,upfrom’s$,forayieldofTheonlyindustrialthatdidnotsweetenitsdividendwasIntel(INTC),theworld’sNochipmakerThecompanylasthikeditspayoutinMay,whichmeansthatitnonethelesspaidahighertotaldividendinthantheyearbeforeTravelingovertotheDowtransportationstocks,theypaidmoreindividendsthanthepreviousyear,or$,against$Yield:Fifteenofthetransportsincreaseddistributionslastyear,includingAlaskaAirGroup(ALK),whichinitiatedquarterlydistributionsinJuly,andDeltaAirLines(DAL),whichinMayrestarteditsquarterlycommonpayoutafteryearsCHRobinsonWorldwide(CHRW),Conway(CNW),andJBHuntTransport(JBHT)tooknonewaction,butRobinsonandHunthadeachraisedandprepaidtheirfirstquarterdividendsinDecemberJetBlueAirways(JBLU),Kirby(KEX),andUnitedContinentalHoldings(UAL)paynodividendsYielding,theDowutilitiespaidoutacombined$individends,morethan’s$ThegroupregisteredpayoutenhancementsinThethreeabsenteeswereExelon(EXC),FirstEnergy(FE),andPGE(PCG)ExeloninFebruaryslasheditsdividend,itsfirstcutsinceitsformation,toallowittomaintainitsinvestmentgradecreditratingandinvestinitsgrowthemail:shirleylazobarronscomDividendPaymentspageMMarketWatchASamplingofAdvisoryOpinionEditedbyPaulFarrellGladTidingsDailyMarketInsightbyInteractiveDataChurchSt,NewYork,NYDec:TheyearcomestoaclosetodaywithsteadystrongereconomicdatacappingabannermonthperiodforUSequities,withallofthemajorindicesboastingrobustdoubledigitannualgainsThismorning’sSPCaseShillerCityHomePriceIndicesremainedflatinOctoberhowever,thelatestfigurespropelledtheindexhigherbyfrom,markingthelargestincreaseinsevenyearsFurthermore,theConsumerConfidencereadingprovidedadditionalencouragement,astheheadlinenumbersurgedafterretreatingineachoftheprevioustwomonthsBoththepresentsituationandfutureexpectationcomponentsofthereportedgedup,pointingtoaresilientoutlookfortheUSeconomyenteringKENNETHLEE,DAVIDVARANOJIMISHGORADIA,AATISHSHAHFearBanished,NotDemolishedTheLongandShortbyEuroPacificPreciousMetalsMadisonAve,NewYork,NYJan:Therearetwotypesofgoldinvestors:thosetryingtomakemoneyonshorttermmarkettimingandthoselookingforlongtermassetpreservationItwasthefeardriventradingoftheformerthathelpedgoldbreak$,in,andforgoodreasonstormymarketssteerinvestorstosafeharbors…Intimeslikethese,longtermgoldinvestorsfeellikethedesignateddriversinthecornerofafratpartyItmightseemlikewe’remissingthefun,butwemustrememberthatwe’replayingadifferentgamethantheshorttermspeculatorsOurdrunkenfriendshavehadsomecheapthrillsin,butthisstockmarketgrowthrestsonanunstablefoundationofartificialstimulusandcheapmoneyPETERSCHIFFDon’tCountOntheCoattailsInternationalInsightsbyWellsFargoNJeffersonAve,StLouis,MoJan:Inpasteconomiccycles,theUSeconomyhaspulledothereconomiestofastergrowth,typicallyasUSconsumersandbusinessesbuytheproductsofothercountries,orasUSinvestorshelpfinancegrowthoverseasInthepast,thedollarbloccountries(Canada,Australia,andNewZealand,whereEnglishisadominantlanguageandthelocalcurrencyiscalledthedollar)havebenefitedfromUSeconomicimprovement,butwethinktheywillnotridethecoattailsofUSeconomicimprovementinEspeciallyintheearlypartofnextyear,CanadaandAustraliafaceslowingeconomies,whileNewZealandmayencountersomeinflationrisk,PAULCHRISTOPHERTheMomentumIsPalpableUSEconomicCommentbyUBSAveoftheAmericasNewYork,NYJan:TheDecemberInstituteforSupplyManagementmanufacturingsurveyshowedcontinuedstrengthascametoaclose…ThemomentumevidentinmostDecemberdatashouldcarryoverinto,forwhichourrealgrossdomesticproductgrowthforecastisbasispointsovertheearlyDecemberbluechipconsensusMAURYNHARRISTobeconsideredforthissection,material,withtheauthor’snameandaddress,shouldbesenttoMarketWatchbarronscom“Intimeslikethese,longtermgoldinvestorsfeellikethedesignateddriversinthecornerofafratparty”PETERSCHIFF,EuroPacificPreciousMetalsCYANMAGENTAYELLOWBLACKCompositeCompositeCMYKPBWWXACL,CN,CX,DL,DM,DX,EE,EU,FL,HO,KC,MW,NC,NE,NY,PH,PN,RM,SA,SC,SL,SW,TU,WB,WEBG,BM,BP,CC,CH,CK,CP,CT,DN,DR,FW,HL,LA,LD,LG,LK,MI,ML,PI,PV,TD,WOPBWWXATECNAVIACROPPDFINORIGcrop=January,XWLCHGBPBARRON’SFAMIBuybackBonbonsCONFETTIWASN’TTHEONLYTHINGTORAINDOWNFROMTHEskiesascametoacloseCashgobsofit!cameflutteringrightintoouroutstretchedhandsReally,itdid!Ofcourse,youhadtobeattherightplaceattherighttimeAndbythatImeanyouhadtobeashareholder,preferablyoflargeUScompanies,whichhavebeenferventlybuyingbacksharesandpracticallyshovelingcashbacktotheirshareholdersInthefourthquarter,SPcompaniesmayhaveboughtbacknearly$billionworthofstock,saysHowardSilverblatt,StandardPoor’ssenioranalystIfthatestimateprovescorrectascompaniesfiletheirquarterlydisclosures,it’llbethebiggestquarterforbuybackssinceandajumpfromthelevelayearagoCompanieshavealreadyrepurchasedastaggering$billionworthofsharesinthemonthsendedonSeptJoshuaBrown,whowritestheReformedBrokerblogandisCEOofRitholtzWealthManagement,putsthatnumberinperspective:$billionisenoughtobuymorethanhalfofallbuildingsandrealestateinManhattan(eatyourheartout,DonaldTrump!)OryoucouldhooverupeveryteamintheNFL,NBA,NHL,andMajorLeagueBaseballfivetimesoverandstillhaveenoughlefttotackonalittlecomplementarynetworkcalledESPNCorporateAmericaanditsPRmachinerywouldlikeyoutoseethesemassivebuybacksasabigvoteofconfidenceincompanies’future,oratleastasignthatstocksarecheapYet,boardswieldingcompanymoneyasopposedtoinsidersspendingtheirowncasharenotoriouslypoormarkettimers(ExhibitA:Buybackspeakedatawhopping$billionin,rightbeforethemarkettanked)No,thisgushofrepurchasesmerelyreflectstheabundantcashsloshingthroughourmarkets,andthedearthofconvincing,goodideasforjustexactlywhatelsetodowithitSoholdthethankyoucards,formanagement’sgenerositymaybemoreincidentalthanintentional“Inalowgrowthenvironment,theeasiestwaytoboostshareprices,raiseearningspershare,andsecurehighercompensationisbyshrinkingthepubliclyavailablefloatofshares,”Brownwrites“It’slessriskycareerwiseforaCEOoraboardofdirectorsthanexpansionoracquisitions”CharlesSchulzsaidthatallyouneedislove,butalittlechocolatenowandthendoesn’thurtMorethanfiveyearsafterthecreditcrisis,cashhasbecomethenewchocolateanamusebouchedoledouttoappeaseshareholdersandwhettheirappetitesAndithasbeenworking:TheSPBuybackIndex,whichcoversthecompaniesthatarethebusiestbuyingbackshares,rosein,trumpingareturnforeventheSPDividendAristocratIndexbrimmingwithcompaniesthathavehikeddividendseveryyearforaquartercenturyConventionalwisdomnowexpectstobeanevenbiggeryearforbuybacksAfterall,globalgrowthisimprovingatonlyadrowsypace,andrecedingcrisesheappressureonmanagementtospendtheircashstashGoldmanSachs,forone,seesrepurchasesincreasingthisyearButwhilecompanieswillcontinuetobuybackshares,investors’zealousembraceofthemmightstarttowaneRisinginterestrateswillmakeitdearerforcompanieslookingtoborrowtofinancebuybacksorreplenishtheircashhoardsAsexpectationsforthemrise,buybacksbecomelessofahappysurprise,likederigueurchocolatesprofferedonValentine’sDayBesides,buybacksworkbetterasaninterimmeasureforreturningcashtoshareholderswhentheoutlookisiffyToday,abroadeningrecoverynudgesmanagementtorelylessonfinancialengineeringandtobegintheriskier,toughertaskoffindinggrowth,investinginresearchanddevelopment,orinventingthenextbigthingwhetherit’soceandrivenhydropoweroracureformalepatternbaldnessReflexivelybuyingbackshareswastheeasy,momentarilycrowdpleasingpartFiguringoutwherefuturegrowthliesandhowtosecureitistherealchallengethatliesaheadQuicklynow,beforetheinkdriesonanotheryear,takemycallused,inkstainedhandandstepwithmepasttheheapsoffallenrecords,emptyVeuveClicquotbottles,andcrystalballwavingforecasterstotakeonelastlookthroughourglitterspeckledmirroratNoquestion,lastyearwasepicthewaytwo

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