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20130106 《巴伦周刊》Barron.pdf

20130106 《巴伦周刊》Barron.pdf

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MARKET BEATERS INSIDE THIS ISSUE OUR QUARTERLY GUIDE TO MUTUAL FUNDS Market Week Pullout Dow Notches 26.5% Gain in Record Year; Finishes Week Flat Page M3 National Oilwell Varco Could Rise 30% Page 16 January 6, 2014 Who says the markets are efficient? Using an investment strategy built around the pioneering work of Nobel Prize- winning economist Eugene Fama, Dimensional Fund Advisors has delivered astounding results. The Dow Jones Business and Financial Weekly Vol. XCIV No. 1 barrons.com $5.00 UP & DOWN WALL ST. • 7 Who gets hurt by rising wages STREETWISE • 11 Splitsville for stock splits TIMBER TROUBLE • 19 Plum Creek’s dividend dilemma EARNINGS OUTLOOK • 21 2014 estimates look too high GAINING GROUND • 23 The case for 3% economic growth SECONDARY ISSUES • 27 Beware techs bearing offerings BURNING RUBBER • M6 Fiat could double in two years Subscriptions/Customer Service: 800 544-0422 Eugene Fama, left, with DFA Co-CEO David Booth 36 B A R RON ’ S January 6, 2014 Investors should carefully considera fund’s investmentobjectives, risks, fees, chargesandexpensesbefore investinganymoney.Toobtainthisandother fund information, please call 866-667-9231to requestaprospectus,ordownloadaprospectusatwww.aberdeen-asset.us. Please readtheprospectus carefullybefore investinganymoney. Fixed income securities are subject to certain risks including, but not limited to: interest rate (changes in interest rates may cause a decline in the market value of an investment), credit (changes in the financial condition of the issuer, borrower, counterparty, or underlying collateral), prepayment (debt issuers may repay or refinance their loans or obligations earlier than anticipated), and extension (principal repayments may not occur as quickly as anticipated, causing the expected maturity of a security to increase). Non-investment-grade debt securities (high yield/ junk bonds) may be subject to greater market fluctuations, risk of default or loss of income and principal than higher-rated securities. Derivatives are speculative and may hurt the Fund’s performance. They present the risk of disproportionately increased losses and/or reduced gains when the financial asset or measure to which the derivative is linked changes in unexpected ways. Foreign securities are more volatile, harder to price and less liquid than U.S. securities; and are subject to different accounting and regulatory standards, and political and economic risks. These risks are enhanced in emerging markets countries. Aberdeen Funds, Aberdeen Investment Funds and Aberdeen Global Select Opportunities Fund Inc. are distributed by Aberdeen Fund Distributors LLC, Member FINRA and SIPC. 1735 Market Street, 32nd Floor, Philadelphia, PA 19103. “Aberdeen” is a U.S. registered service mark of Aberdeen Asset Management PLC. NOT FDIC INSURED | NO BANKGUARANTEE | MAY LOSEVALUE Aberdeen Global High Income Fund To achieve a strong yield in today’s low-rate world we believe you need the flexibility to capture the best opportunities. The Aberdeen Global High Income Fund seeks attractively priced companies with strong fundamentals–from Europe to Asia, from the U.S. to emerging economies. Through active management and by expanding the investment universe, we aim to keep your income yield in good shape. For more information please visit aberdeen-asset.us/fixedincome More flexible for more potential.C Y A N Y E L L O W B L A C K C o m p o s i t e C om posite C M Y K P2BW 006000-0-W 00100-10FDF21078F CL,DM ,EE,EU,FL,M W ,NC,NE,NY,PH,PN,RM ,SA,SC,SW ,TU,W E BG ,BM ,BP,CC,CH,CK,CP,CT,DN,DR,FW ,HL,LA,LG ,LK,M I,M L,PI,PV,TD,W O P 2 B W 0 0 6 0 0 0 - 0 - W 0 0 1 0 0 - 1 0 F D F 2 1 0 7 8 F TECNAVIA [CROPPDFINORIG] crop = -42 -42 -42 -42 January 6, 2014 Table of Contents s 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This Drilling Specialist Has Teeth Jack Hough 16 With its modest stock valuation and solid growth potential, National Oilwell offers a combination that’s in dwindling supply lately. Plum Creek’s Rocky Outlook Sandra Ward 19 The timber concern’s share price could splinter as it gets more creative about funding its operations and hefty dividend. Look out below? Invesco Could Shine in 2014 Lawrence C. Strauss 20 Savvy leadership and strong asset growth are likely to make for another good year for the Atlanta-based money manager. An Enthusiastic Thumbs-Up Richard C. Morais 24 PENTA: Filmmaker Alexander Payne has a knack for tackling prickly issues of family and wealth in a witty, life-affirming way. Bold Tastes, Conservative Bent Steve Garmhausen 25 THE BEST ADVICE: Destination Wealth Management founder Michael Yoshikami is finding good value in wireless tech and other U.S. stocks. A Need for Accountability Joseph H. Marren 33 OTHER VOICES: Government finances are in worse shape than political leaders would have us believe. Siccing the Supreme Court on the case. Slim Chance for Tax Reform Thomas G. Donlan 35 EDITORIAL COMMENTARY: Politicians talk the talk about reforming the nation’s dysfunctional tax system. But they refuse to walk the walk. Columns Up & Down Wall Street Kopin Tan Is the big surge in buybacks worth celebrating? 7 Streetwise Ben Levisohn Finding bargains among stocks that sport low prices. 11 Follow-Up Puerto Rico debt. Uni-Pixel. 13 Review & Preview What will be the biggest surprise of 2014? 14 Economic Beat Gene Epstein No Pollyanna, just a realist. 23 Tech Trader Tiernan Ray Beware the cost of life rafts thrown to flailing firms. 27 The Electronic Investor Mike Hogan A new way to manage risk. Plus, Gadget: Asus RT-AC66U and Apple AirPort Extreme. 28 D.C. Current Jim McTague Rolling out a welcome mat for foreign investors. 29 Balancing the Books Health care from a business perspective. Climate economics. An indictment of the Federal Reserve. And, The Death of Corporate Reputation. 30 Speaking of Dividends Shirley A. Lazo A banner year for payouts. 32 SPECIAL REPORT: Barron’s/Lipper Mutual Fund Quarterly Looking Ahead: No Time for Complacency A Different Dimension: David Booth built DFA to harness the power of Eugene Fama’s pioneering research.L5 Q&A With Don Phillips:Morningstar’s managing director on the industry’s past, present, and future. L16 Ascent of the Fallen Stars: Picks from active managers who’ve come through a rough spell. L19 Analysts’ profit forecasts for the new year look overly optimistic. Barrons.com 21 Pullouts Start After Pages 18 and M24 Charting the MarketM2 The Trader Vito J. Racanelli Favorite sectors for 2014. M3 European Trader Jonathan Buck Fiat in the fast lane. M6 Asian Trader Leslie P. Norton Attractive plays in Japan. M7 Emerging Markets Prabha Natarajan Warming to Gulf nations. M7 Winners & LosersM8 Current Yield Michael Aneiro A sloppy outlook for junk. M9 13D FilingsM10 Striking Price Steve Sosnick Forget the “Fed put.” M11 Commodities Corner Leslie Josephs A strain on orange crops. M12 Research ReportsM13 Insider TransactionsM13 Market Watch 32 Cover Photograph Matthew Mahon for Barron’s Index to Companies . . . . . . . 12 Mailbag Fixing U.S. health care is a Herculean task . . . . 34 Classified . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M14 BARRON’S (USPS 044-700) (ISSN 1077-8039) Published every Monday. Editorial and Publication Headquarters: 1211 Avenue of the Americas, NewYork, N.Y. 10036. Periodicals postage paid at Chicopee,MA and othermailing offices. Postmaster: Send ad- dress changes to Barron’s, 200 Burnett Rd., Chicopee,MA01020 32 B A R RON ’ S January 6, 2014 SPEAKINGOFDIVIDENDS n by Shirley A. Lazo Stellar Year for Payouts Of the 65Dow stocks, 58 boosted their dividends in 2013 ALL MAJOR U.S. EQUITY INDEXES HAD A banner year in 2013. Ditto corporate earnings, cash flow, and of course, divi- dends, even though some first-quarter 2013 dividends were paid in 2012’s fourth quarter, along with a bevy of hefty special payouts, to help investors avoid possible higher taxes owing to the fiscal tug-of-war in Washington. Despite political and economic hur- dles, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rang out 2013 up 26.5% (29.7% with re- invested dividends), its best return since 1995. That put the Dow more than 10,000 points above its 2009 bear-market low. The S&P 500 posted a 29.6% gain (32.4% with dividends), adding $3.75 tril- lion in market value, plus $312 billion in dividends (10.6% ahead of 2012’s $282 bil- lion), for its best year since 1997. How- ever, payout ratios (dividends as a per- centage of net income) remain very low, with companies disbursing only 36% of what they make, versus 52% historically. The 65 Dow stocks saw plenty of pos- itive dividend action in 2013. Here’s how the year shaped up, starting with the final quarter. Barron’s statistics director Peter Miller counted 14 payout enhancements among the 30 industrials: AT&T (ticker: T), Boeing (BA), Walt Disney (DIS), General Electric (GE), Goldman Sachs (GS), McDonald’s (MCD), Merck (MRK),Microsoft (MSFT), 3M (MMM), Nike (NKE), Pfizer (PFE), United Technologies (UTX), Verizon (VZ), and Visa (V). However, Mickey D, Microsoft, and Verizon made their declarations in the third quarter, while AT&T, Boeing, Disney, GE, Merck, Nike, Pfizer, and 3M will pay later this quarter. Three component changes took place in the third quarter: Alcoa (AA), Hewlett- Packard (HPQ), and Bank of America (BAC) were replaced by Nike, Visa, and Goldman Sachs. As for dividend activity among the 20 Dow transports in October-December, the lone new action was a 35-cent special declared by Landstar System (LSTR), which gets paid this month. That special was the company’s only 2013 declaration, but it paid a 50-cent bonus in December 2012 to potentially benefit investors tax- wise. Union Pacific (UNP) paid a higher dividend, but it had been an- nounced in the third quarter. A quartet of utilities turned up the voltage on fourth-quarter dividends: AES (AES), American Electric Power (AEP), Edison International (EIX), and Wil- liams Cos. (WMB), although AES and Edison pay their new dividends this quarter. For 2013 as a whole, by Miller’s reck- oning, the industrials disbursed a com- bined $360.09 to investors, up 1.7% from 2012’s $353.97, for a yield of 2.2%. The only industrial that did not sweeten its 2013 dividend was Intel (INTC), the world’s No. 1 chip maker. The company last hiked its payout in May 2012, which means that it nonethe- less paid a higher total dividend in 2013 than the year before. Traveling over to the Dow transporta- tion stocks, they paid 2.1% more in 2013 dividends than the previous year, or $90.15, against $88.26. Yield: 1.2%. Fifteen of the 20 transports increased distributions last year, including Alaska Air Group (ALK), which initiated quar- terly distributions in July, and Delta Air Lines (DAL), which in May restarted its quar- terly common payout after 10 years. C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW), Con-way (CNW), and J.B. Hunt Transport (JBHT) took no new action, but Robinson and Hunt had each raised and prepaid their first-quarter 2013 dividends in December 2012. Jet- Blue Airways (JBLU), Kirby (KEX), and United Continental Holdings (UAL) pay no dividends. Yielding 4%, the 15 Dow utilities paid out a combined $19.66 in 2013 dividends, 2.1% more than 2012’s $19.25. The group registered 12 payout en- hancements in 2013. The three absentees were Exelon (EXC), FirstEnergy (FE), and PG&E (PCG). Exelon in February slashed its dividend 41%, its first cut since its 2000 formation, to allow it to maintain its investment-grade credit rating and invest in its growth. e-mail: shirley.lazo@barrons.com Dividend Payments page M47 MarketWatch A Sampling of Advisory Opinion Edited by Paul Farrell Glad Tidings Daily Market Insight by Interactive Data 100 Church St., New York, N.Y. 10007 Dec. 31: The year comes to a close today with steady/stronger economic data cap- ping a banner 12-month period for U.S. equities, with all of the major indices boasting robust double-digit annual gains. This morning’s S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Indices remained flat in October; however, the latest figures propelled the index higher by 13.6% from 2012, marking the largest increase in seven years. Furthermore, the Consumer Confidence reading pro- vided additional encouragement, as the headline number surged after retreating in each of the previous two months. Both the present-situation and future- expectation components of the report edged up, pointing to a resilient outlook for the U.S. economy entering 2014. —KENNETH LEE, DAVID VARANO JIMISH GORADIA, AATISH SHAH Fear Banished, Not Demolished The Long and Short by Euro Pacific Precious Metals 152 Madison Ave., New York, N.Y. 10016 Jan. 2: There are two types of gold investors: those trying to make money on short-term market timing and those looking for long-term asset preservation. It was the fear-driven trading of the former that helped gold break $1,900 in 2011, and for good reason—stormy mar- kets steer investors to safe harbors.… In times like these, long-term gold investors feel like the designated drivers in the corner of a frat party. It might seem like we’re missing the fun, but we must remember that we’re playing a different game than the short-term spec- ulators. Our drunken friends have had some cheap thrills in 2013, but this stock market growth rests on an unstable foun- dation of artificial stimulus and cheap money. —PETER SCHIFF Don’t Count On the Coattails International Insights by Wells Fargo 1 N. Jefferson Ave., St. Louis, Mo. 63103 Jan. 2: In past economic cycles, the U.S. economy has pulled other economies to faster growth, typically as U.S. consum- ers and businesses buy the products of other countries, or as U.S. investors help finance growth overseas. In the past, the dollar-bloc countries (Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, where English is a dominant language and the local currency is called the dollar) have benefited from U.S. economic improve- ment, but we think they will not ride the coattails of U.S. economic improve- ment in 2014. Especially in the early part of next year, Canada and Australia face slowing economies, while New Zea- land may encounter some inflation risk, —PAUL CHRISTOPHER The Momentum Is Palpable U.S. Economic Comment by UBS 1285 Ave. of the Americas New York, N.Y. 10019 Jan. 2: The December Institute for Sup- ply Management manufacturing survey showed continued strength as 2013 came to a close.… The momentum evident in most December data should carry over into 2014, for which our 3% real gross- domestic-product growth forecast is 50 basis points [0.5%] over the early Decem- ber blue-chip consensus. —MAURY N. HARRIS To be considered for this section, material, with the author’s name and address, should be sent to MarketWatch@barrons.com. “In times like these, long-term gold investors feel like the designated drivers in the corner of a frat party.” —PETER SCHIFF, Euro Pacific Precious Metals C Y A N M A G E N T A Y E L L O W B L A C K C o m p o s i t e C om posite C M Y K P2BW 006000-0-W 00500-1--------XA CL,CN,CX,DL,DM ,DX,EE,EU,FL,HO ,KC,M W ,NC,NE,NY,PH,PN,RM ,SA,SC,SL,SW ,TU,W B,W E BG ,BM ,BP,CC,CH,CK,CP,CT,DN,DR,FW ,HL,LA,LD,LG ,LK,M I,M L,PI,PV,TD,W O P 2 B W 0 0 6 0 0 0 - 0 - W 0 0 5 0 0 - 1 - - - - - - - - X A TECNAVIA [CROPPDFINORIG] crop = -42 -42 -42 -42 January 6, 2014 X W L C 10 11 12 H G B P BA R RON ’ S 4 8 3 F A M 6 7 9 0 I 7 Buyback Bonbons CONFETTI WASN’T THE ONLY THING TO RAIN DOWN FROM THE skies as 2013 came to a close. Cash—gobs of it!—came fluttering right into our outstretched hands. Really, it did! Of course, you had to be at the right place at the right time. And by that I mean you had to be a shareholder, pref- erably of large U.S. companies, which have been fervently buying back shares and practically shoveling cash back to their shareholders. In the fourth quarter, S&P 500 companies may have bought back nearly $138 billion worth of stock, says Howard Silverblatt, Standard & Poor’s senior analyst. If that estimate proves correct as companies file their quarterly disclosures, it’ll be the biggest quarter for buybacks since 2007 and a 40% jump from the level a year ago. Companies have already repurchased a staggering $445 billion worth of shares in the 12 months ended on Sept. 30. Joshua Brown, who writes the Reformed Broker blog and is CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, puts that number in perspective: $445 billion is enough to buy more than half of all buildings and real estate in Manhattan (eat your heart out, Donald Trump!). Or you could hoover up every team in the NFL, NBA, NHL, and Major League Baseball five times over and still have enough left to tack on a little complementary network called ESPN. Corporate America and its PR machinery would like you to see these massive buybacks as a big vote of confidence in companies’ future, or at least a sign that stocks are cheap. Yet, boards wielding company money—as opposed to insid- ers spending their own cash—are notoriously poor market timers. (Exhibit A: Buybacks peaked at a whopping $589 billion in 2007, right before the market tanked.) No, this gush of repurchases merely reflects the abundant cash sloshing through our markets, and the dearth of convincing, good ideas for just exactly what else to do with it. So hold the thank-you cards, for management’s generos- ity may be more incidental than intentional. “In a low- growth environment, the easiest way to boost share prices, raise earnings per share, and secure higher compensation is by shrinking the publicly available float of shares,” Brown writes. “It’s less risky career-wise for a CEO or a board of directors than expansion or acquisitions.” Charles Schulz said that all you need is love, but a little chocolate now and then doesn’t hurt. More than five years after the credit crisis, cash has become the new chocolate—an amuse-bouche doled out to appease shareholders and whet their appetites. And it has been working: The S&P 500 Buy- back Index, which covers the 100 companies that are the busi- est buying back shares, rose 48.3% in 2013, trumping a 33.3% return for even the S&P Dividend Aristocrat Index brimming with companies that have hiked dividends every year for a quarter-century. Conventional wisdom now expects 2014 to be an even bigger year for buybacks. After all, global growth is improv- ing at only a drowsy pace, and receding crises heap pres- sure on management to spend their cash stash. Goldman Sachs, for one, sees repur- chases increasing 35% this year. But while companies will continue to buy back shares, investors’ zealous embrace of them might start to wane. Rising interest rates will make it dearer for companies look- ing to borrow to finance buybacks or replenish their cash hoards. As expectations for them rise, buybacks become less of a happy sur- prise, like de rigueur chocolates proffered on Valentine’s Day. Besides, buybacks work better as an interim measure for returning cash to shareholders when the outlook is iffy. Today, a broadening recovery nudges management to rely less on financial engineering and to begin the riskier, tougher task of finding growth, investing in research and development, or inventing the next big thing—whether it’s ocean-driven hydropower or a cure for male-pattern bald- ness. Reflexively buying back shares was the easy, momen- tarily crowd-pleasing part. Figuring out where future growth lies and how to secure it is the real challenge that lies ahead. Quickly now, before the ink dries on another year, take my callused, ink-stained hand and step with me past the heaps of fallen records, empty Veuve Clicquot bottles, and crystal-ball-waving forecasters to take one last look through our glitter-speckled mirror at 2013. No question, last year was epic the way two


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