加入VIP
  • 专属下载特权
  • 现金文档折扣购买
  • VIP免费专区
  • 千万文档免费下载

上传资料

关闭

关闭

关闭

封号提示

内容

首页 Less Than Zero: The Case for a Falling Price Lev…

Less Than Zero: The Case for a Falling Price Level in a Growing Economy by George Selgin .pdf

Less Than Zero: The Case for a …

OKHW
2013-12-22 0人阅读 举报 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《Less Than Zero: The Case for a Falling Price Level in a Growing Economy by George Selgin pdf》,可适用于社会民生领域

•LessThanZeroTheCaseforaFallingPriceLevelinaGrowingEconomyGeorgeSelginProfessorofEconomicsTerryCollegeofBusinessUniversityofGeorgiaPublishedbyTheInstituteofEconomicAffairs•FirstpublishedinMarchbyTheInstituteofEconomicAffairsLordNorthStreetWestminsterLondonSWPLB©THEINSTITUTEOFECONOMICAFFAIRSHobartPaperAllrightsreservedISSNISBNManylEApublicationsaretranslatedintolanguagesotherthanEnglishorarereprintedPermissiontotranslateortoreprintshouldbesoughtfromtheEditorialDirectorattheaddressabovePrintedinGreatBritainbyHartingtonFineArtsLimited,Lancing,WestSussexSetinBaskervilleRomanonpointContentsIIForewordProfessorColinRobinsonTheAuthorAcknowledgementsIntroductionTheCaseForZeroInflationProductivityandRelativePricesUnderlyingTenetsSuperfluousandMeaningfulChangesinthePriceLevelTheProductivityNormand'Menu'CostsSellers'ReluctancetoLowerPricesMonetaryInjectionEffectsMonetaryMisperceptionsIIIDebtorsandCreditorsPriceMovementsand'Windfalls'TheProductivityNormandtheOptimumQuantityofMoneyIVHistoricalImplicationsoftheProductivityNormThe'GreatDepression'ofTheWorldWarIPriceInflationThe'Relative'InflationofthesTheOilandAgriculturalSupplyShocksVTheProductivityNorminPracticeTheProductivityNormandNominalIncomeTargetingWhichProductivityNormAFreeBankingAlternativeVIConclusionAppendix:ProductivityNormsandNominalIncomeTargetsTablesRealandNominalIncomeandPrices,UnitedKingdom,RealandMonetaryCausesofInflationinSweden,RealandNominalIncomeandPrices,UnitedStates,RealandNominalIncomeandPrices,UnitedStates,FiguresActualandProductivityNormPriceLevels,ANegativeDemandShockAPositiveProductivityShockANegativeProductivityShockReserveandNominalIncomeEquilibriaunderFreeBankingwithaFixedStockofReservesReferencesFurtherReadingSummaryBackCoverFOREWORDOneofmainfeaturesofthe'counterrevolution'ineconomicswhichhasresultedintherevivalofclassicalliberalideashasbeenachangeinviewsaboutgovernment'sabilitytocontroltheeconomy'Fiscalfinetuning'isvirtuallydiscreditedandmonetarypolicyisnolongerseenasameansofstimulatingemploymentNotjusttheory,butexperienceinmanycountriesdemonstratesthatunemploymentcannotforlongbeheldbelowits'natural'ratebymonetaryexpansionTheproperroleofmonetaryauthoritiesisnowgenerallyregardedaskeepingthegeneralpricelevelundercontrolAseconomists'viewshavechangedandattentionhasswitchedfromemploymentpromotiontopricestability,soinflationhasbeencheckedinmanycountriestotheextentthatzeroinflationnowappearsanachievablegoalButisastablepriceleveltheidealThatisthefundamentalquestionwhichProfessorGeorgeSelginasksinHobartPaperProfessorSelginarguesinsteadforamonetarypolicywhichwouldallowpricestovarywithmovementsinproductivity(eitherlabourortotalfactorproductivity)Ratherthanattemptingtokeepthegeneralpricelevelconstant,a'productivitynorm'policywouldpermitthatleveltochangetoreflectvariationsinunitcostsofproductionTheconsequence,asSelginpointsout,wouldinrecenttimeshavebeenyearonyearpricedeclinesratherthantheinflationwhichhasbeenexperiencedIntheyearsaftertheSecondWorldWar,forexample,UnitedStatesconsumerpriceswouldhavehalvedinsteadofalmosttriplingAdversesupplyshocks(suchashaIVestfailuresorwars)wouldbeallowedtoinfluencepricesunderaproductivitynormButthelongruntendency,inaneconomywithgrowingproductivity,wouldbe'seculardeflationinterruptedbyoccasionalnegativesupplyshocks'(p)SelginclaimsthatthecaseforaproductivitynormwhichcanbefoundinthewritingsofearlythcenturywriterswasallbutlostintheKeynesianrevolutionanditsaftermathSo,whenmonetaristsagainarguedthatpricelevelcontrolshouldbetheprimeaimofmonetarypolicy,,theydidsobyrehabilitatingoldargumentsforaconstantpricelevel,leavingtheproductivitynormalternativeburiedinobscurity'(p)Hegoesontodeveloptheargumentfortheproductivitynorm,usingboththeoryandhistoricalevidenceInhisview,the'menu'(physicalandmanagerial)costsofchangingpricesarelikelytobelessundersuchanormthanunderazeroinflationregimeitislesslikelytoinduce'monetarymisperceptioneffects''efficientoutcomesusingfixedmoneycontracts'aremorelikelyandtherealmoneystockwillprobablybeclosertoitsoptimumSomepuzzlingepisodesineconomichistoryarealsoaddressedbyProfessorSelginwhoargues,forexample,thatafallingpricelevel'isnotnecessarilyasignorsourceofdepression'(p)Ashepointsout,the'GreatDepression'oftowhenBritishwholesalepricesfellbyaboutathirdwasactuallyatimeofrisingrealincomesThustheGreatDepression,'consideredasadepressionofanythingexceptthepricelevel,appearstobeamyth'(p)Underaproductivitynorm,themonetaryauthoritieswouldtargetnominalincome,settingitsgrowthrateattheweightedaverageoflabour(orlabourandcapital)inputgrowthratesSelgincontendsthataproductivitynormpolicywouldbebestimplementedunderafullyderegulated'free'bankingsystemwhichhasanautomatictendencytostabilisenominalincomeItisaninterestingcommentaryonthedistancemostcountrieshavecomeinconqueringinflationthattheideaoftheproductivitynormhasbeenrevivedAsProfessorSelginsays:,zeroinflationistshavebeenbusywrestlingwithargumentsforsecularinflationNotlongagotheyconfrontedaworldeconomyhookedondoubledigitinflation,whereanyproposalforreducinginflationwasregardedasarecipefordepression,andwhereproposalsforzeroinflationwereconsideredbothcruelandutopian'(p)ThatworldhaschangedanditisnowappropriatetoquestionthezeroinflationaimtodeterminewhetherornotitcanbebetteredTheconclusionsofthisHobartPaper,likethoseofallInstitutepublications,arethoseoftheauthorandnotoftheInstitute(whichhasnocorporateview),itsTrustees,AdvisersorDirectorsProfessorSelgin'sPaperispublishedasathoughtprovokingandradicalattempttomoveforwardthedebateabouttheproperroleofmonetarypolicyandhowthegenerallevelofpricesshouldbecontrolledMarchCOLINROBINSONEditorialDirector,TheInstituteofEconomicAffairsProfessorofEconomics,UniversityofSurreyTHEAUTHORGeorgeSelginearnedhisPhDatNewYorkUniversity,andhastaughtatGeorgeMasonUniversityandtheUniversityofHongKongHeispresentlyanAssociateProfessorofEconomicsattheUniversityofGeorgiaProfessorSelgin'spublishedwritingsincludeTheTheoryofFreeBanking:MoneySupplyunderCompetitiveNoteIssue()andBankDeregulationandMonetaryOrder()ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSSeveralpeoplehavehelpedmetowritethisPaper,bothbyreviewingearlydraftsandbyshapingmybasicbeliefs(oftenthroughpolitebutfirmdisagreement)concerninghowthepriceleveloughttobehaveInparticularIwishtothankKevinDowd,MiltonFriedman,KevinHoover,DavidLaidler,WilliamLastrapes,HughRockoff,RichardTimberlake,DavidVanHoose,LawrenceHWhite,andLelandYeager,fortheirthoughtfulsuggestionsandcriticismGSIINTRODUCTION'Toasimplefellowlikemyselfitseemsthatthelowerpriceswhichincreasedproductionmakespossiblewouldbenefiteverybody,butIrecognisetheremustbeaflawinmythinking,forincreasedproductivityhasnotbroughtanddoesnotseemlikelytobringlowerpricesPresumablythereissomegoodreasonforthisWillsomeoneexplain'Notlongago,manyeconomistswereconvincedthatmonetarypolicyshouldaimatachieving'fullemployment'Thosewholookeduponmonetaryexpansionasawaytoeradicatealmostallunemploymentfailedtoappreciatethatpersistentunemploymentisanonmonetaryor'natural'economiccondition,whichnoamountofmonetarymedicinecancureTodaymostofusknowbetter:boththeoryandexperiencehavetaughtusthattryingtoholdunemploymentbelowits'naturalrate'throughmonetaryexpansionisliketryingtorelieveahangoverbyhavinganotherdrink:inbothcases,theprescribedcureeventuallymakesthepatientworseoffHeedingthis'naturalrate'perspective,severalgovernmentsincludingthoseofGreatBritain,theUS,Canada,Australia,andNewZealandhavetakenorareconsideringstepstorelievetheircentralbanksofresponsibilityforcreatingjobs,allowingthemtofocusinsteadonsomethingcentralbankscando:limitingmovementsinthegenerallevelofoutputpricesThisnewtrendinmonetarypolicyraisesaquestionoffundamentalimportancetobotheconomistsandpolicymakers:howshouldwewantthepriceleveltobehaveManyifnotmosteconomiststodayviewaconstantoutputpricelevelor'zeroinflation'asbothatheoreticalandaAformerArchbishopofWales,inalettertotheLondonTimes,asquotedinRobertson(,ppn)Pastattemptsbycentralbanksto'cure'unemploymentandstimulateeconomicgrowththroughinflationhavetendedtoheighten'natural'unemploymentratesandreducegrowthbymisdirectinglabourandotherresources(Hayek,CozierandSelody,)practicalidealEvensomeofthemoredeterminedcriticsofazeroinflationpolicyseempreparedtoadmititstheoreticalmerits,opposingitsolelyonthegroundsthatgettingtozerowouldbeexcessivelycostlyIbelievethatzeroinflationistsarewrongforreasonshavingnothingtodowithtransitioncostsIaminclinedtoagreewithzeroinflationists'claimthatthelongrunbenefitsfromanycrediblezeroinflationpolicy,consideredasasubstitutefortoday'screepinginflation,wouldprobablyexceedthatpolicy'sshortruncostsNonethelessIsubmitthataconstantpricelevel,evenonceinplace,wouldbefarfromidealInstead,thepricelevelshouldbeallowedtovarytoreflectchangesingoods'unitcostsofproductionIcallapatternofgeneralpriceleveladjustmentscorrespondingtosucharuleforindividualpricechangesa'productivitynorm'Underaproductivitynorm,changesinvelocitywouldbeprevented(asunderzeroinflation)frominfluencingthepricelevelthroughoffsettingadjustmentsinthesupplyofmoneyButadverse'supplyshocks'likewarsandharvestfailureswouldbeallowedtomanifestthemselvesinhigheroutputprices,whilepermanentimprovementsinproductivitywouldbeallowedtolowerpricespermanentlyEconomistsemploytwodifferentnotionsofproductivitylabourproductivityandtotalfactorproductivityandSomeauthorsdistinguishbetweenaconstantpricelevelandzeroinflationButagenuine'zeroinflation'policyachievesalongrun,constantvalueforthepricelevelbyrequiringthemonetaryauthoritiesto'rollback'thepricelevelwheneveritchangesfromsomeinitialvalue(Thealternativeof'lettingbygonesbebygones'isconsistentwithzeroeXjJecterlinflationonly)Mostadvocatesof'zeroinflation'doinfacthavea'rollback'policyinmindThusWilliamTGavin(,pp)defines'zeroinflation'asbeing'equivalenttoastablepriceleveltarget',rejectingthealternativeofzeroexpectedinflationbecause,underthisalternative,'thepricelevelwouldhavenoanchorandwoulddriftaboutinresponsetorealshocksandcontrolerrors'ThusCanadianeconomistRobertFLucas(,p),inarguingforlivingwithsome(percent)inflation,writes:'Iftheinflationratecanbechosenindependentofhistory,thenzeroisclearlythepreferenceofmost,ifnotall,mainstreameconomists'(Lestthereshouldbeanyconfusion,RobertELucas,theAmericanNobellaureate,supportsagoalofzeroinflation)Howitt()andCarlstromandGavin()offereffectiverepliestothe'transitioncost'argumentagainstzeroinflationLabourproductivityistheratioofrealoutputtolabourinput,whereastotalfactorproductivityistheratioofrealoutputtototalfactor(inpractice,labourdisagreeabouthoweachshouldbemeasuredButonefactatleastisbeyonddispute:throughoutmodernhistory,improvementsinaggregateproductivityhaveovershadowedoccasionalsetbacksThishasbeenespeciallytrueduringthelasthalfcenturyAccordingtoonewidelyusedestimate,fromtototalfactorproductivityintheUSgrewbyanave'rageannualrateofpercentHada(totalfactor)productivitynormbeenineffectduringthistime,USconsumerpricesinwouldonaveragehavebeenroughlyhalfashighastheywerejustaftertheSecondWorldWarInstead,asFigureshows,theUSpricelevelnearlytripled,obscuringtherealityoffallingrealunitproductioncostsOtherindustrialisednations,includingtheUK,experiencedbothhigherratesofinflationandmorerapidproductivitygrowththantheUS,soforthemthediscrepancybetweentheprogressofeconomicefficiencyandthatofmoneypriceswasandcapital)inputAlgebraically,the(logarithmic)growthrateoflabourproductivityisequaltothegrowthrateoftotalfactorproductivityplusthegrowthrateofthecapitallabourratiomultipliedbycapital'sshareoftotalexpendituresBecauseproductioninmostnationshastendedtobecomemorecapitalintensiveovertime,labourproductivityhastendedtogrowmorerapidlythantotalfactorproductivitySeetheAppendix(below,pp)fordetailsBureauofLaborStatistics()KendrickandGrossmanplacethegrowthrateat·percent,whileDaleJorgensonplacesitatonly·percentAlthoughdifferentsourcesarriveatsubstantiallydifferentestimatesofaverageproductivitygrowth,itisworthnotingthatproductivitytimeseriesfromallofthemarehighlycorrelatedNorsworthy()favoursJorgenson'stechniquesonaccountoftheirgreaterconsistencywithneoclassicaleconomictheoryOtherresearchers(egLevitanandWerneke,,pp)pointtoadownwardbiasinherentinavailabledataTheBLSestimatesmay,therefore,beaboutrightafterallForacomparisonofalternativemeasurementsoftotalfactorproductivityseeBureauofLaborStatistics,,ppThatisaconselVativeestimate,whichfailstoallowforanyadverseeffectofinflationordeflationonproductivityInfact,thereisastrong,negativeempiricalrelationbetweenthegrowthrateofproductivityandtherateofinflation(SbordoneandKuttner,)Althoughcausationmightruneitherway,therearegoodreasonsforsuspecting,asArthurOkundid(,p,nI),'thatcurbinginflationwoulddomoretoreviveproductivitythanadirectstimulustoproductivitycoulddotoslowinflation'StudiessuggestingthatthesuspicioniswarrantedincludeJarrettandSelody()andSmyth()JarrettandSelodyclaimedinthatapermanentpercentreductionintheannualinflationratewouldhaveraisedUSproductivitygrowthby·percentagepointsFigure:ActualandProductivityNormPriceLevels,(QuarterlyData,=)ActualProductivityNorm~N:)Sources:BureauofLaborStatistics,,FederalReserveBankofStLouisElectronicDatabaseevenmoresevereApolicyof'zeroinflation'wouldpartiallyhaveavoidedthisoddresultButonlypartially:evenzeroinflationwouldhaveinvolvedsomefailureofmoneypricesignalstoreflecttransparentlyandaccuratelythetruestateandprogressofrealproductionpossibilitiesMostoftheargumentsforaproductivitynormarefarfromnewManycanbetracedtoeconomicwritingsoftheearlythcentury,andwereastapleofbothclassicalandneoclassicaleconomicanalysisProminenteconomistswhomadetheseargumentsincludedDavidDavidson,EvanDurbin,FrancisEdgeworth,RobertGiffen,GottfriedHaberler,RalphHawtrey,FriedrichHayek,EricLindahl,AlfredMarshall,GunnarMyrdal,DennisRobertson,andArthurPigouIndeed,aslateastheearlystherewasatleastasmuchsupportamongwellknowneconomistsforsomekindofproductivitynormasforthealternativeofzeroinflationEvenKeyneshimself(,pp)flirtedwiththeidea(which,henoted,wasmoreconsistentwithstabilityofmoneywages),onlytoreachaverdictfavouringzeroinflationRegrettably,thecaseforaproductivitynormwasallbutforgottenintheaftermathofthe'Keynesian'revolution,whichmadepricelevelpolicysecondarytothegoalofachieving'full'employmentWhenmonetaristsonceagainmadecontrolofthepricelevelaprimaryobjectofmonetarypolicy,theydidsobyrehabilitatingoldargumentsforaconstantpricelevel,leavingtheproductivitynormalternativeburiedinobscurityToday'sproponentsofZeroinflationseldomgrapplewiththeproductivitynormalterhativelOlJsuallytheyjustoverlookSeemy(b)and(b)discussionsofpricelevelpolicyinthehistoryofeconomicthoughtMiltonFriedman's()wellknownargumentfordeflationasameansforachievingan'optimumquantityofmoney'isdistinctfromearlierargumentsforfallingpricesAsweshallsee,itactuallycallsfordeflationatarateexceedingtherateofproductivitygrowthModernproposalsforcentralbanktargetingofnominalincome(GNPorGDP)involvesomeofthesamereasoningunderlyingearlierargumentsforaproductivitynormMostproponentsofincometargetingarenonethelesszeroinflationists,inthattheyregarditasameansofachievingaconstantlongrunpricelevelAnoteworthyrecentexceptionisKevinDowd()Seealsomy(a)replyit,asintreatmentsthatpretendtoargueforaconstantpricelevelwheninfactmerelyarguingagainstsecularinflationTypicalisTheEconomist'sstatement(Anonymous,,p)thatzeroinflationisbest'becauseanythinghigherinterfereswiththeabilityofpricestoprovideinformationaboutrelativescarcities'Thealternativeofanythinglowerthanzero,suchasapriceleveltypicallyfalling(butalsooccasionallyrising)inresponsetochangingproductivity,issimplyneglectedZeroinflationists'neglectofthealternativeofseculardeflation,alongwiththeirfailuretoconsidertheimplicationsofproductivitychanges,hasledthemtoembraceafaultymonetarypolicyidealInmodeleconomieswhereproductivitydoesnotchange,itisrelativelyeasytomakethecasethatzeroinflation(thatis,aconstantpricelevel)isconsistentwithkeepingrealeconomicactivityonorclosetoitsefficientand'natural'pathButinrealityproductivityisconstantlychanging,generallyforthebetterIntherealworld,alittleseculardeflation,alongwithupwardmovementsinthepricelevelmirroringadversesupplyshocks,wouldbebetterthanzeroinflationTheCaseforZeroInflationTheideathatgeneralmacroeconom

用户评价(0)

关闭

新课改视野下建构高中语文教学实验成果报告(32KB)

抱歉,积分不足下载失败,请稍后再试!

提示

试读已结束,如需要继续阅读或者下载,敬请购买!

文档小程序码

使用微信“扫一扫”扫码寻找文档

1

打开微信

2

扫描小程序码

3

发布寻找信息

4

等待寻找结果

我知道了
评分:

/16

Less Than Zero: The Case for a Falling Price Level in a Growing Economy by George Selgin

仅供在线阅读

VIP

在线
客服

免费
邮箱

爱问共享资料服务号

扫描关注领取更多福利