下载

1下载券

加入VIP
  • 专属下载特权
  • 现金文档折扣购买
  • VIP免费专区
  • 千万文档免费下载

上传资料

关闭

关闭

关闭

封号提示

内容

首页 中国目前的空气污染现状

中国目前的空气污染现状.pdf

中国目前的空气污染现状

onlywrg
2013-12-06 0人阅读 举报 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《中国目前的空气污染现状pdf》,可适用于工程科技领域

BackgroundAccordingtostatisticsfromChina’sMinistryofEnvironmentalProtection(MEP),citiesinChina’sYangtzeRiverDelta,PearlRiverDelta,andBeijingTianjinHebeiregionsufferoverhazedayseveryyear,withPM(particleswithanaerodynamicdiameterlessthanμm)concentrationtwotofourtimesabovetheWorldHealthOrganizationguidelinesTheeffectsofPMrelatedairpollutionextendbeyondhazedays,alsoleadingtosystemicdamagetothehealthofthehumanbodyAttheendofheatedpublicdiscussionandmediaattentionoverPMledtoitsinstallationasanewnationalindicatorforairqualitymonitoring,inaneraofincrediblyhighpollutionlevelsandaneverincreasingareaofcontaminationHowever,theexactsourcesof,controlapproach,publichealthrisksandeconomiclossduetoPMhadyettobeverifiedandcloselystudiedThisstudyisthefirstofitskind,basedoncurrentlyavailableresearchfindingsanddatainrelationtoPMinShanghai,Guangzhou,Xi’anandBeijing,respectivelyelectedasfourmajorcitiesinEastern,Southern,Western,andNorthernChinaItstudiesthehealthrisksandeconomiclosslinkedtoPMinthesefourcities,andassessesthepotentialpublichealthandeconomicbenefitsgiveneffectiveimprovementofPMpollutioncontrolunderdifferentscenariosDuetoalackofavailabledata,wewereonlyabletoestimatethehealthandeconomiclossbroughtuponbyprematuredeathWedidnotincludehospitaladmissionsnumbers,norlostworkandschooldays,althoughPMwouldhavealsoimpactedthesenumbersWehopethatthisstudycanofferinsightintoevaluatingtheeconomiclossduetoChina’sPMpollution,andlookforwardtoseeingmoreresearchersandpolicymakersjointheresearchintoPMandthediscussionofpollutioncontrolPMconcentrationlevelshaveendangeredpublichealthinBeijing,Shanghai,GuangzhouandXi’anThePMconcentrationlevelsinallfourcitiesexceedWorldHeathOrganisation(WHO)airqualityguidelines(AQG)Thismeanshigherhealthriskstothecardiovascularsystem,cerebrovascularsystemandanincreaseintheprobabilityofcancerandprematuredeathSupposingifpollutionlevelsremainedthesameas,,prematuredeathswouldhavebeencausedbyPMinthefourcitiesin,withatotaleconomiclossofbillionUSDSupposingifthefourcitieseffectivelycontrolledPMlevelsandmetWHOairqualityguidelinesin,thenumberofprematuredeathswouldhavedecreasedbyatleast,whiletheeconomicbenefitsofreducingtheseprematuredeathsinthefourcitieswouldamounttomillionUSDKeyPointsThehealthrisksofPMPMissmallinparticulatesizebutaspollutioncanreachalargesurfaceareaComparedtootherparticulatematteritismorepronetocarryingavarietyoftoxicheavymetals,acidoxides,organicpollutantsandotherchemicals,aswellasmicroorganismssuchasbacteriaandvirusesintheairTherefore,comparedtoPMitcanbeconsideredmorehazardoustohumanhealthModerntoxicologyresearchhasproventhattheheavymetalsandPAHs(polycyclicaromatichydrocarbons)carriedbyPMcanenteranddepositinhumanalveoli,causinginflammationandlungdiseasesItcanalsoenterthehumanbloodcirculationandaffectthenormalfunctioningofthehumancardiovascularsystemTherefore,exposuretoPMcanleadtosignificantlyincreasedmortalityduetocardiovascular,cerebrovascularandrespiratorydiseases,aswellasgreatercancerrisks(SeetableWHOairqualityguidelinesandinterimtargetsforparticulatematter–annualmeanconcentrations)TableWHOairqualityguidelineandinterimtargetsforparticulatematter–annualmeanconcentrationsPM(µgm)PM(µgm)BasisforselectedlevelInterimtarget(IT)TheselevelsareassociatedwithaboutahigherlongtermmortalityriskrelativetotheAQGlevelInterimtarget(IT)Inadditiontootherhealthbenefits,theselevelslowertheriskofprematuremortalitybyapproximatelyrelativetotheITlevelInterimtarget(IT)Inadditiontootherhealthbenefits,theselevelslowerthemortalityriskbyapproximatelyrelativetotheITlevelAirqualityguideline(AQG)Thesearethelowestlevelsatwhichtotal,cardiopulmonaryandlungcancermortalityhavebeenshowntoincreasewithmorethanconfidenceinresponsetolongtermexposuretoPMKeyfindings:thehealthandeconomicimpactsofPMonfourmajorChinesecitiesPMconcentrationChangesinhealthoutcomesAssessmentofhealthbenefitsExposureresponsefunctionWillingnesstopay(WTP)ExposedpopulationMethodologyStep:ExposureresponserelationshipmodelingStep:HealthlossesmodelingThecitiesofBeijing,Xi’an,ShanghaiandGuangzhouhavebeenselectedforthisstudyAmathematicalmodelwasdevelopedbasedonPMlaboratorymonitoringvaluesoverthepastthreetofouryearsinthesefourcities,aswellaslocalCDC(CentersforDiseaseControlandPrevention)statisticsonrelateddeathsandtheircausesoverthesameperiodFromthisaPMexposurerelativeriskcoefficient(RR)wascalculatedTotaldeathsrelatedtoPMpollutioninwasalsoestimatedbasedonpopulationsizesandPMconcentrationstatisticspublishedintheNationalStatisticalYearbookFinally,thestudyalsocalculatesmortalitycausedbyPMin,togetherwithfiguresbasedonpotentialPMimprovementscenariosThosefiguresincludetheprojectedhealthbenefitstothesecitiesunderdifferentairpollutionlevels,accordingtonationalguidelinesandtheWHOAQGCityMonitoringsiteMonitoredperiodAveragedailyPMconcentrationduringmonitoredperiod(µgm)(standarddeviation)BeijingPekingUniversitycampus()ShanghaiShanghaiEnvironmentalMonitoringCenter,PudongDistrict()GuangzhouSouthChinaEnvironmentalSciencesInstitute,TianheDistrict()Xi’anChineseAcademyofSciences()TablePMconcentrationdatausedintheexposureresponserelationshipmodelCityHealthoutcomesRR(CI)SourcesofdataBeijingNonaccidentaldeaths(,)DataforBeijing,:MortalitydatafromNationalCDC,PMdatafromPekingUniversityDeathscausedbycirculatorydiseases(,)GuangzhouNonaccidentaldeaths(,)DataforGuangzhou,data:MortalitydatafromNationalCDC,PMdatafromSouthChinaInstituteofScienceDeathscausedbycirculatorydiseases(,)Deathscausedbyrespiratorydiseases(,)ShanghaiNonaccidentaldeaths(,)KanHaidong,etal()Deathscausedbycirculatorydiseases(,)Deathscausedbyrespiratorydiseases(,)Xi’anNonaccidentaldeaths(,)HuangWei,etal()Deathscausedbycirculatorydiseases(,)TableExposureresponserelationshipcoefficientinthefourcitiesThedataintableshowsthatthedailyaveragePMconcentrationfarexceedsthenationalleveltwo,andgoesfarbeyondWHOguidelinesAlookatthemonitoringresultsofXi’anshowslevelsfivetimesoverthenationalleveltwostandardFromtheRRmatrixintablewecanseethatthelevelsofhazardousimpactsarebothhighinthesefourcitiesBasedontheexposureresponserelationshipcoefficientvaluesindifferentcities,wewereabletocalculatefiguresforrelateddeathsinandeconomiclossbasedonpopulationandPMconcentrationnumbersTocalculatethenumberofresidentsinexposedtoPMairpollution,weusedstatisticsfromthepopulationofpermanentresidentsinBeijing,Shanghai,GuangzhouandXi’an(seeappendixtable,fromannualstatisticsreportsofeachcity)ThePMdatausediscalculatedfromannualenvironmentcommuniquéspublishedbytheMinistryofEnvironmentalProtection(MEP),withPMconvertedtoPMconcentrationnumbersusingafactorofTheestimationresultsareasfollowing,seenintableDetailedfiguresarelistedintheappendix,tables:thehealthandeconomicimpactsofPMonfourmajorChinesecities:thehealthandeconomicimpactsofPMonfourmajorChinesecitiesTable:PMinduceddeathsandeconomiclossestimatesCityPMannualconcentration(µgm)NumberofdeathscausedbyPMEconomicloss(millionUSD)BeijingShanghaiGuangzhouXi’anPM(µgm)GraphPMconcentrationlevelsofChinesemajorregionsWecanalsocalculatethepotentialdeathandeconomiclossreductionofdifferentairqualityimprovementscenarioscomparedtonoimprovementin(graphsand)ThehypotheticalairqualitylevelsaccordwithnationalstandardsandtheWHOguidelineDetailedfiguresarelistedintheappendix,tablesBasedonthedemographicchangesofthefourcitiesin,wecancalculatedeathsandeconomiclosscausedbydifferentlevelsofPMinSincePMstatisticsaretakenfromtheMEPannualenvironmentalcommuniqués,andthosefromandhaveyettobepublished,weareusingPMlevelsasareferencetocalculatetheimpactinWearesupposingPMinthesecitiesdidn’timproveinthepasttwoyearsTable:PMinduceddeathsandeconomiclossestimatesifpollutionremainedatlevelGraphReductionofprematuredeathcausedbyPMpollutioninunderdifferentimprovementscenariosCityNumberofdeathscausedbyPMEconomicloss(millionUSD)BeijingShanghaiGuangzhouXi’anBeiJingNationalAmbientAirQualityStandards(Level)NationalAmbientAirQualityStandards(Level)WHOAQGReducedDeathsShangHaiGuangZhouXiAnBeiJingShangHaiGuangZhouXiAnNationalAmbientAirQualityStandards(Secondary)NationalAmbientAirQualityStandards(Primary)WHOAQGGraphEconomiclossreductionsunderdifferentPMimprovementscenariosscenariosEconomicBenefitsmillionsUSDIfthepollutionlevelremainsatthelevel,thetotalnumberofdeathsresultedfromPMpollutioninBeijinginwouldbe,,andrelatedeconomiclosswouldreachnearlymillionUSDIfBeijingcanmeetlevelorlevelofnationalAQGortheWHOAQGin,suchdeathswouldbereducedby,,,,and,respectivelyTherewouldalsobeadecreaseof,andrespectivelyovernoPMconcentrationimprovementmade(,deaths)Andtheeconomicbenefitswouldreach,andmillionUSDrespectivelyAIfthepollutionlevelremainsatthelevel,thetotalnumberofdeathsresultedfromPMpollutioninShanghaiinwouldbe,,andrelatedeconomiclosswouldreachnearlymillionUSDIfShanghaicanmeetlevelorlevelofnationalAQGortheWHOAQGin,suchdeathswouldbereducedby,,and,respectivelyTherewouldalsobeadecreaseof,andrespectivelyovernoPMconcentrationimprovementmade(,deaths)Andtheeconomicbenefitswouldreach,andmillionUSDrespectivelyBIfthepollutionlevelremainsatthelevel,thetotalnumberofdeathsresultedfromPMpollutioninGuangzhouinwouldbe,,andrelatedeconomiclosswouldreachnearlymillionUSDIfGuangzhoucanmeetlevelorlevelofnationalAQGortheWHOAQGin,suchdeathswouldbereducedby,,and,respectivelyTherewouldalsobeadecreaseof,andrespectivelyovernoPMconcentrationimprovementmade(,deaths)Andtheeconomicbenefitswouldreach,andmillionUSDrespectivelyCIfthepollutionlevelremainsatthelevel,thetotalnumberofdeathsresultedfromPMpollutioninXi’aninwouldbe,andrelatedeconomiclosswouldreachnearlymillionUSDIfXi’ancanmeetlevelorlevelofnationalAQGortheWHOAQGin,suchdeathswouldbereducedby,andrespectivelyTherewouldalsobeadecreaseof,andrespectivelyovernoPMconcentrationimprovementmade(deaths)Andtheeconomicbenefitswouldreach,andmillionUSDrespectivelyDInconclusion,ifthesecitiescaneffectivelylowertheirPMlevelandmeetleveloneortwoofthenationalairqualityguidelines,PMinduceddeathswouldbereducedbyasignificantdegreecomparedtonoimprovementinIfthecitiescanmeettheWHOAQGsuchdeathswouldbereducedbyatleast,andtheeconomiclossreductionofthesefourcitiescouldreachintotalofuptomillionUSDFurtherdetailedscenariosforeachcityGraphPMsourceanalysisPMsourceanalysisandcontrolstrategyPMSourcesCoalcombustionNitrogenSulphateCombustionofbiomassOthersIndustryTrafficdustVehiclesSourcesofPMThecompositionofPMisrelativelycomplex,includingdirectemissionsoffineparticlesofthecombustionprocess(primaryPMparticles),andsecondaryparticlesgeneratedbymultiphasechemicalreactions(iegasesareconvertedintosolidsthroughchemicalreactions,suchashowsulfurdioxideandnitrogenoxideareconvertedintosulfatesandnitrates)ofatmosphericpollutantsEarlyPMresearchfocusedonPMsourcesapportionmentforcountermeasuresAnumberofstudiesshowthattheproportionofprimaryPMparticleshasbeenonthedecreasewhilethatofsecondaryparticlesareontheriseGraphshowstheanalyticalresultsofPMsourcesinBeijingbytheChineseAcademyofSciencesinWecanseethattheemissionsofmotorvehiclescontributeabout,thecombustionofcoalremainsthemostimportantsourceofprimaryparticulatematters,accountingfor,andthatsecondaryparticlescarriedbynitratesandsulfatesalsotakealargeproportionwithand,respectivelyThisillustratesthesignificanceofpollutioncausedbysecondaryparticles,especiallynitratesandsulfatesTheelectricpowersectorandindustrialsectorsarethemainsourcesofairpollutionSourceapportionmentmethodallowsforaqualitativeanalysisofPMcontrol,withthecontrolofsecondaryparticulatemattersbeingatitscoreForpollutioncontrolmeasures,themostcrucialapproachistohaveaninventoryofpollutantsdischargedbydifferentsectorsandenterprisesAlthoughthereisn’tsuchanofficialinventoryatthenationallevelinChina,scholarshavetriedseveralwaystoproduceonesuchatbothnationalandregionallevelsasanimportantbasisforregionaljointpreventionandcontrolofairpollutionAccordingtothefindingspublishedbyZhaoYuetalin,thecountry’semissionsbysectorareshowningraph,andtheemissionsinthePearlRiverDelta(PRD)andtheYangtzeRiverDelta(YRD)showningraphandgraphBoththenationalandregionalemissioninventoriesindicatethattheelectricpowersectorandindustrialsectorsarethemainsourcesofSO,NOx,whichareprecursorstoprimaryandsecondaryPMparticlesSuchaphenomenonislargelyattributedtoChina’sexcessivedependenceoncoalconsumptionZhao,Y,Zhang,J,andNielsen,CP:TheeffectsofrecentcontrolpoliciesontrendsinemissionsofanthropogenicatmosphericpollutantsandCOiinChina,AtmosChemPhysDiscuss,,,doi:acpd,C.Huangetal:EmissioninventoryofanthropogenicairpollutantsandVOCspeciesintheYangtzeRiverDeltaregion,ChinaAtmosChemPhys,,–,JunyuZhengetal:AhighlyresolvedtemporalandspatialairpollutantemissioninventoryforthePearlRiverDeltaregion,Chinaanditsuncertaintyassessment,AtmosphericEnvironment()–GraphNationalinventoryofdifferentairpollutantsinSONOxCOTSPPMPMResidentialandcommercialTransportationIndustryPowerPlantsGraphYangtzeRiverDeltainventoryofdifferentairpollutantsinGraphPearlRiverDeltainventoryofdifferentairpollutantsinAnumberofstudieshaveshownthatworseningurbanairpollutionanddeterioratingregionalairqualityiscloselyrelatedtoChina’soverrelianceoncoalconsumptionManagingPMpollutionmustbeginwithreplacingurbancoalconsumptionwithcleanalternativeenergysources,controlofregionaltotalcoalconsumption,aswellascontrolandtreatmentofpollutantsfromcoalcombustionChinahasbeenmakingunremittingeffortstodoendofpipeairpollutioncontrolwhiledevelopingitseconomyHowever,inspiteofsuchefforts,environmentalpressuresbroughtaboutbydrasticallyincreasedenergyconsumptionarestillloominglargeForexample,duringthethFiveYearPlanperiod,China’scoalconsumptionincreasedby(graph),accountingforonequarteroftheworld’stotalcoalconsumptioninAlthoughdesulfurizationeffortsinthepowersectorhaveallowedChinatomeetitssulfurdioxideemissionreductiontargets,itstillfailedtoimplementdenitrificationplans,whichresultedinaincreaseofnitrogenoxideemissionduringthethFiveYearPlanThismeanstheonlywayChina’stotalnitrogenoxideemissionscanreturntoitslevelbyisifthecountrymeetsitsemissioncuttargetsforboththethandthFiveYearPlanperiodsWhichwouldmeanthetimelinetocontrolNOxhasbeenpostponedbyyearsGraphEnergyconsumptionduringthFiveYearPlanGrowingenergyconsumptionisthemainreasonforworseningairpollutionToeffectivelycombatPMpollution,tomeetChina’snewairqualitystandards,andtoprotectChina’spublichealthfromexperiencingfurthernegativeimpactsduetoPMpollution,wearemakingthefollowingpolicyrecommendations:Tocopewithsevereairpollution,itwouldnotbeenoughtosimplydoendofpipepollutioncontrolIfrapidcoalconsumptionincreasescannotbecurbed,gainsmadebytheefforttocontrolendofpipepollutantssuchassulfurdioxideandnitrogenoxidesemissionsduringthethFiveYearPlanwillprobablybeoffsetAsChina’scoalconsumptioncontinuestogrow,otherpollutantsofcoalcombustionwillexacerbateairpollutionandinterferewithPMimprovementsinthelongtermAtpresent,leadingcitieslikeBeijingandGuangzhouhavealreadyannouncedtheircoalconsumptionreductiontargetduringthethFiveYearPlanThecoalconsumptiongrowthcaphasbeenintroducedtoTianjin,Shanghaiands

用户评价(0)

关闭

新课改视野下建构高中语文教学实验成果报告(32KB)

抱歉,积分不足下载失败,请稍后再试!

提示

试读已结束,如需要继续阅读或者下载,敬请购买!

文档小程序码

使用微信“扫一扫”扫码寻找文档

1

打开微信

2

扫描小程序码

3

发布寻找信息

4

等待寻找结果

我知道了
评分:

/20

中国目前的空气污染现状

VIP

在线
客服

免费
邮箱

爱问共享资料服务号

扫描关注领取更多福利