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首页 高盛最新中国投资策略研究报告-2010年

高盛最新中国投资策略研究报告-2010年.pdf

高盛最新中国投资策略研究报告-2010年

木木
2009-12-25 0人阅读 举报 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《高盛最新中国投资策略研究报告-2010年pdf》,可适用于经济金融领域

October,China:PortfolioStrategyGoldmanSachsGlobalEconomics,CommoditiesandStrategyResearchOctober,China:PortfolioStrategyThemesfor:FollowthebigtrendsThematicinvestingmakessenseTheriskrewardofengaginginthemebasedinvestingseemsfavorableinasthegovernmentisremoldingChina’sgrowthorientationandsoundinvestmentopportunitiesusuallyemergeduringaparadigmshiftBigtrends:ReformsandintegrationWeseethemostcompellingthemescenteringonwhatwebelievearetwoseculartrendsinChina:()Deepeningreformsand()integrationDeepeningreforms(Structural,financial,andfiscalsupport):Healthcarereform:ThegovernmentwillspendRmbbninthenextyearsandderegulationcouldcreatelongterminvestmentopportunitiesInlandvscoastal:AmoretargetedwaytotradeChina’srobustdomesticdemandagainstananemicGgrowthrecoveryChineseautos:Affordabilityhasincreasedsignificantly,yetautopenetrationinChinaremainsverylowinaglobalcontextAshareissuance–US$bnofnewequitycouldhitthemarketin(ofmarketcap)BrokersarelikelytobethefirsttobenefitAsharelisting:OffshorelistedstockscouldlistdomesticallyinQandtheytendtoperformwellaheadoftheirAsharelistingdatesIntegration:ShanghaiWorldExpo:MayattractmnvisitorstothecityandtheinfrastructureworkshouldbodewellforfuturegrowthCrossstraitdevelopment:ClosertiesacrossthestraitmaybenefitallconcernedBuyChineseITandFujianbasedfirmsOurrecommendedthemesforRebalancesustainGROWTHDeepeningreformsFiscalStructuralHealthcarereformGoWestCrossstraitFurtherintegrationWorldExpoFinancialGEMBondsInt'lboardRatesHealthcareeducationUnleashingdomesticconsumptionChineseautosInlandvscoastalAsharebrokersRedchiplistingsPolicyobjectivesBeijingOlympicsWTOBRICSSource:GSGlobalECSResearchThomasDeng,CFA|thomasdenggscomGoldmanSachs(Asia)LLCKingerLau,CFA|kingerlaugscomGoldmanSachs(Asia)LLCKennethKok,CFA|kennethkokgscomGoldmanSachs(Asia)LLCSunilKoul()|sunilkoulgscomGoldmanSachsIndiaSPLTheGoldmanSachsGroup,IncdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreportsAsaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportInvestorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecisionForRegACcertification,seetheendofthetextOtherimportantdisclosuresfollowtheRegACcertification,orgotowwwgscomresearchhedgehtmlAnalystsemployedbynonUSaffiliatesarenotregisteredqualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheUSThisreportisintendedfordistributiontoGSinstitutionalclientsonlyTheGoldmanSachsGroup,IncGoldmanSachsGlobalEconomics,CommoditiesandStrategyResearchOctober,China:PortfolioStrategyGoldmanSachsGlobalEconomics,CommoditiesandStrategyResearchThemesfor:FollowthebigtrendsMarketsetup:FavorableforthematicinvestingWebelieveinvestmentstrategiesrevolvingaroundthematicinvestingandproactivesectorstrategies,asopposedtoanoutrightmarketbeta,couldrewardinvestorswellinOurargumentsarebackedupbythefollowingshiftinpolicysetupandmarketdynamics:•Chinaneedstoboostdomesticconsumptiontosustaingrowth,asthegrowthmomentumfromtradeandinvestmentislikelytomoderateonananemicGrecoveryandahighbaseeffect,respectivelyWeexpectgovernmentpoliciestobeincreasinglyskewedtowardsthepromotionofdomesticconsumptionandattractivelongterminvestmentopportunitiesusuallyariseduringaparadigmshift,justliketheydidinChina’sthfiveyearplanperiod()•Asignificantportionofmarketreturnsinhavesofarbeenpropelledbyvaluationnormalizationoffalowbase(Exhibit)Althoughwearguethatcurrentmarketvaluationsarelargelyfair(XversusourtargetmultipleofXforHshares),webelievethatfundamentals(EPSgrowth)will,onceagain,becometheprimaryreturnsdriverin•Rollingreturnsdispersionhasnormalizedbutisnotatstretchedlevels,especiallyintheAsharemarketWebelieveactivesectormanagementapproachesmakesense(Exhibit)Aggregatingourtopdownanalysis,sectordynamics,andoursectoranalysts’fundamentalviews,weseetwoseculartrends–Deepeningreformsandintegration–towhichseveralcompellinginvestmentthemesarelinkedWesummarizethethemes,theirthematicappeal,andtheinvestmentimplicationsinExhibitForourrecommendedsectorandpairtradestrategies,pleaseseeChinaStrategy:outlook:Fosteringtherootsofgrowth,OctoberExhibit:ReturnsinhavebeenlargelydrivenbyvaluationnormalizationMSCIChinaforwardPE,EPSindex,andpriceindexExhibit:SectorreturnsdispersionisstillathistoricallylowlevelsforAsharesStandarddeviationofmonthrollingreturns,GICSlevelsector,MSCIChinaoffshore,andAsharesXXMXCNMforwardEPS(right)MXCNMforwardPEMSCIChina(right)ForwardPE(X)IndexedpriceandEPSlevelMSCIChinaChange()sinceOct,IndexLevelFwdPE(X)FwdEPS()JanJunDecMayNovMayOctAprSepMarSepFebAugFebJulJanJunDecJunNovMayOctIndexlevelDispersonofGICSIImorollingreturns(RHS)MXCNDispersonofGICSIImorollingreturns(RHS)MSCIChinaASource:Factset,IBES,MSCI,GSGlobalECSResearchOctober,China:PortfolioStrategyGoldmanSachsGlobalEconomics,CommoditiesandStrategyResearchExhibit:WethinktheseinvestmentthemescouldgeneratealphaforinvestorsinOurrecommendedthemesforataglanceThemesThematicappealStocksectorimplicationsHealthcarereformAsecularthemeHealthcarespending:ChinaislowonaglobalbasisandthegovernmentiscommittedtobroadeninganddeepeninghealthcarecoverageThesectoronlyaccountsforandofmarketcapintheHandAsharemarket,respectivelySimilartothatofthepropertysectoryearsagoASharehealthcareLiquidSector:GSGHHEALInlandvscoastalSeparatingstrongdomesticdemandgrowthfactorsfromanemicexternaldemandStockswithhigherbusinessexposureintheinlandregionshaveperformedwelloverthepastfouryearsandweexpectthistrendtocontinueRefreshed"GoWest"CAT:GSSZCNGChineseautosAutospenetrationrateinChinaisverylowinaglobalcontextandaffordabilityisrisingonthebackofincreasedincomepercapitaandlowautopricesSEHKlistedChinaAutosCAT:GSSZCNAUAshareequityissuanceAheavyequityissuancepipeline(newIPOs,thereturnofHsharesRedChips,GEM,andtheInternationalboard)andtheproliferationoffinancialproductsarepositivetoAsharebrokers'earningsgrowthAShareBrokersLiquidSectorGSGHSECUAsharelistingAnincreasingnumberofHongKonglistedChinesefirmshaveshowninterestinlistingontheAsharemarketforfinancial,liquidity,andstrategicreasonsEmpiricalevidenceindicatesthatHsharestendtogeneratepositivereturnsbeforetheirAsharelistingdatesPotentialAShareListingCAT:GSSZCNALCrossstraitdevelopmentClosereconomictiesacrossthestraitscouldcreateawinwinsituationforbothpartiesChineseITfirmsandFujianbasedcompaniescouldbenefitthemost,inourviewSelectedChineseITfirmsandFujianbasket:GSEHFUJIShanghaiWorldExpoThegovernmentestimatesthattheShanghaiWorldExpomayattractmnvisitorstothecityInfrastructureinvestmentshouldbodewellforthecity'slongtermgrowthprospectsandlayasolidfoundationforthecitytobecomeaglobalfinancialcenterShanghaibasedpropertycompanies:GSSZCNWEandGSSZCWEAFurtherintegrationDeepeningreformsNote:Theabilitytotradethisbasketwilldependuponmarketconditions,includingliquidityandborrowconstraintsatthetimeoftradeSource:GSGlobalECSResearchOctober,China:PortfolioStrategyGoldmanSachsGlobalEconomics,CommoditiesandStrategyResearchExhibit:Thesestockscouldgeneratethematicalphaforinvestors,inourviewStocksthatbelongtoeachofourhighlightedthematicCATsHealthcarereformInlandvscoastalChineseautosAshareequityissuanceAsharelistingCrossstraitdevelopmentShanghaiWorldExpoASharehealthcareLiquidSectorRefreshed"GoWest"CATSEHKlistedChinaAutosCATAShareBrokersLiquidSectorGSPotentialAShareListingCATAShareFujianBasketShanghaiWorldExpoCATsGSGHHEALGSSZCNGGSSZCNAUGSGHSECUGSSZCNALGSEHFUJIGSSZCNWEJilinAodongMedicineInd(CS)ChinaLifeInsurance(H)(HK)Byd(HK)HaitongSec(CG)ChinaMobile(HK)IndBank(CG)YanlordLand(YLLGSP)ShanghaiFosunPharma(CG)Tencent(HK)DongfengMotor(HK)CiticSec(CG)CNOOC(HK)CitichampDartong(CG)ShimaoProp(HK)ZhejiangMedicine(CG)COLI(HK)GeelyAutomobile(HK)HongYuanSec(CS)COLI(HK)FuyaoGlassInd(CG)ShuiOnLand(HK)ShandongDongEEJiao(CS)CtripcomIntl(ADR)(CTRPUW)DenwayMotors(HK)NortheastSec(CS)ChinaTelecom(HK)XiamenTungsten(CG)FranshionPropChina(HK)NorthChinaPharm(CG)ChinaMengniuDairy(HK)XinyiGlass(HK)ChangjiangSec(CS)ChinaCommConstr(HK)XiamenCD(CG)ShanghaiForteLand(HK)SanjiuMedicalPharma(CS)HenganIntl(HK)TiannengPowerIntl(HK)AnXinTrustInv(CG)Lenovo(HK)XiamenIntlTrade(CG)Searainbow(CS)Sina(SINAUW)BrillianceChinaAutomotive(HK)PacificSec(CG)ChinaResourcesPower(HK)XiamenKingLongMotor(CG)GSSZCNWEABeijingTiantanBiologicalProducts(CG)TingyiCaymanIslands(HK)AviChinaIndTech(HK)CiticPacific(HK)FujianNewlandComputer(CS)ShanghaiAJ(CG)NortheastPharma(CS)ChinaDongxiang(HK)Minth(HK)ChinaResourcesEnt(HK)FujianLongking(CG)ShanghaiZhangjiangHiTechPark(CG)TonghuaDongbaoMedicines(CG)SichuanExpressway(HK)GreatWallMotor(HK)BeijingEnterprises(HK)FujianExpresswayDev(CG)ShanghaiLujiazuiFinanceTrade(A)(CG)ZhejiangNHU(CS)XiamenProsolarRealEstate(CG)ShanghaiIndDev(CG)TianjinTianyaoPharma(CG)FujianCement(CG)ShanghaiJinqiaoExportProcessing(A)(CG)ShanghaiFudanForwardST(CG)FujianLongxiBearing(CG)XiamenEnggMachinery(CG)FujianSeptwolvesInd(CS)SansteelMinguang(CS)XiamenPortDev(CS)FujianSanmu(CS)XiamenFaratronic(CG)XiamenXindeco(CS)ChinaWuyi(CS)FujianDongbai(CG)XiamenIntlAirport(CG)FujianZhangzhouDev(CS)ConstituentsDeepeningreformsFurtherintegrationCATsbasketsBloombergtickerSource:Bloomberg,GSGlobalECSResearchOctober,China:PortfolioStrategyGoldmanSachsGlobalEconomics,CommoditiesandStrategyResearch()Healthcarereform:AsecularthemeThehealthcaresectoraccountsforanegligibleandoftheMSCIChinaandCSIuniverse,respectivelybutwebelieveitcouldoffersignificantinvestmentopportunitiesforlongtermorientedinvestorsforthefollowingreasons:•InJanuary,thestatecouncilannouncedthatitwillspendRmbbn(US$bn)onimprovingChina’shealthcaresystemfromto(Exhibit)Inaddition,itwasrecentlyreportedbythemedia(egHKTD,July)thattheNDRChassubmittedaproposal(policies)aimedatloweringentrybarriersforaselectgroupofmonopolisticindustriesandencourageprivatesectorinvestment–totheStateCouncilforapprovalHealthcarerelatedcompaniescouldbenefitfromfurtherderegulation,inourview•Healthcarerelatedspending,inbothGDPandpercapitaterms,islowinaglobalcontextamidanagingpopulation(Exhibit)•China’sgrowthsecularpotentialsimplythattheimportanceofthehealthcaresectorintheequitymarketcouldbemuchlargerinthefuture,basedontheevolutionofcrosscountrymarketcomposition(Exhibit)Wecompilealistofsolidhealthcarecompaniesbasedonouranalysts’inputandshowourASharehealthcareLiquidSectorinExhibitExhibit:HealthcarereformisongoinginChinaSummarytableofhealthcarereformsinChinaExhibit:SpendingonhealthcareislowinChinaHealthcarespending,ofGDPandpercapita,Healthcarereformsummary)Acceleratetheformulationofabasicmedicalinsurancesystem•Basicmedicalinsurancecoveragetoreachmillion,ensuringatleastoftheruralpopulationiscoveredby•yuansubsidytoresidentsby,increasingtoyuanby)Buildabasicmedicinesystem•Alistofbasicmedicinesaddedtothenationalinsurancecoveragetokeepthecostofmedicineslowandincreasetheclaimratio•ofcitieswithacentralizedpurchase,delivery,allocation,andretailofbasicmedicines)Improvemedicalservicesinlessdevelopedareas•Standarizetheconstructionofprimaryhealthcarefacilitiesandbuild,countryhospitalsand,townhospitalsby•,townhospitalhealthofficers,,communitymedicalofficers,andmillionvillagehealthofficerstobecreatedby)Graduallyprovidethesamepublichealthservicesinruralandurbanareas•Establishcitizenhealthprofiles–coverageaimstoreachofcitiesandofremotetownsby•Providevaccinations,medicalsupplements,andsurgeriesforthoseinneedandestablishahealthservicechargeatnotlessthanyuanby)Launchapilotprogramstartingfromtoreformpublichospitals•Apilotreformprograminaboutstaterunhospitalsbytheendoftodrawexperiencefromtrialprojects•GraduallyabolishextraservicechargesonmedicineandrecalibratethemedicationfeefrompublichospitalsUnitedStatesofAmericaGermanyUnitedKingdomAustraliaJapanRepublicofKoreaBrazilRussianFederationChinaIndiaPercapitatotalexpenditureonhealthataverageexchangerate(US$)Totalexpenditureonhealthasofgrossdomesticproduct(top)Exhibit:TheweightingoftheChinesehealthcaresectorcouldincreaseastheeconomygrowsSectorweightingforMSCImarketatdifferentGDPcapitaExhibit:ThesecompaniescouldbenefitfromthehighgrowthpotentialofthehealthcaresectorBuyorNeutralratedstocksunderChinahealthcarecoverage,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,GDPpercapita(US$)SectorweightingUtilitiesTelecommunicationServicesMaterialsInformationTechnologyIndustrialsHealthCareFinancialsEnergyConsumerStaplesConsumerDiscretionaryChinaishereJapanandUKarehereUSishereSwitzerlandishereTickerStocknameGSratingPrice(Quoted)OctMGSLE(US$mn)CYEPE(X)CYEEPSgrowth()CYEPB(X)CYEDY()CYEROE()HKShandongWeigaoNHKChinaShinewayPharmaNHKChinaPharmaN()MRUSMindrayMedicalIntNSCRUSSimcerePharmaNWXUSWuXiPharmaTechB*GSGHHEALconstituentsGSGHHEALConstituentsCYETickerStocknameWeight()MGSLE(US$mn)PE(X)EPSgrowth()PB(X)DY()ROE()CSJilinAodongMedicineIndNANANANANACGShanghaiFosunPharma()CGZhejiangMedicineNANANACSShandongDongEEJiaoCGNorthChinaPharmCSSanjiuMedicalPharmaCSSearainbowNANANANANACGBeijingTiantanBiologicalProductsCSNortheastPharmaNANANACGTonghuaDongbaoMedicinesNANANACSZhejiangNHUCGTianjinTianyaoPharmaNANANANACGShanghaiFudanForwardSTNANANANANA*DenotesstockisonourConvictionListForimportantdisclosures,pleasegotohttp:wwwgscomresearchhedgehtmlSource:Factset,MSCI,IMF,WHO,GSGlobalECSResearchestimatesOctober,China:PortfolioStrategyGoldmanSachsGlobalEconomics,CommoditiesandStrategyResearch()Inlandvscoastal:MonetizingChina’sdomesticdemandDomesticdemandhasbeenoneofourpreferredinvestmentthemesbutitsbroaddefinitionoftenmakesatopdowninvestmentapproachmoredifficulttoimplementTogainappropriate,andmoretargeted,exposuretoChina’sgrowthstory,wethinkinvestorsshouldalsothinkalongthegeographicspectrumSpecifically,fromayeartodategrowthperspective,inlandregionshaveoutperformedtheircoastalpeersonavarietyofmacroandtrafficgrowthmetrics(Exhibit)Weattributethisdivergenceto:()Thatexportoriented

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高盛最新中国投资策略研究报告-2010年

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