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首页 The Economist - 19 October-19 2013

The Economist - 19 October-19 2013.pdf

The Economist - 19 October-19 2…

johnshi
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简介:本文档为《The Economist - 19 October-19 2013pdf》,可适用于外语资料领域

Washington’slawyersurplusHowtodoanucleardealwithIranInvestmenttipsfromNobeleconomistsJunkbondsarebackThemeaningofSachinTendulkarOCTOBERTH–THEconomistcomTheworldthisweekLeadersProblemswithscienti�cresearchHowsciencegoeswrongAmericanpoliticsWorsethanEuropeAssetpricesAveryrationalawardNegotiatingwithIranThebestvthenottoobadVenezuelaThecrunchinCaracasLettersOnSpain,thecensus,Bulgaria,DavidCameron,roundabouts,energy,consultantsBrie�ngUnreliableresearchTroubleatthelabUnitedStatesThedebtceilingLastminutemenInfrastructurefundingRoadslesstravelledAcrossthedivide()Iowa’spurpleheartAcrossthedivide()TheChristierecipeRapeinthearmedforcesBreakingthesilenceHurricaneSandyoneyearonStrongerthanthestormLexingtonLawyers,bewarelawyersTheAmericasCrimeinMexicoOutofsight,notoutofmindHaiti’sarmyWhoneedsitAcrackdowninVenezuelaNewsthat’s�ttoprintCanada’sFirstNationsTheseareourschoolsAsiaPoliticsinMyanmarPreparingforsuccessPressfreedominJapanSecrecyandliesDronesoverPakistanSurprisinglypopularVietnamesereformsBlowinginthetradewindsAustralia’soppositionShortengoeslongBanyanThemeaningofSachinChinaRelationswithAsiaBeingthereOnlinenationalismRunningdogeatdogTelevisionViolentcartoonsMiddleEastandAfricaIran’snuclearplansAchinkofhopeanditscarpettradeAmagiccomebackEgypt’sstateapparatusBacktothebadoldwaysSyria’swarReporters’nightmareCivilstrifeinYemenAcityonedgeKenyaandtheinternationalcourtInatanglePoliticsinSouthAfricaWilltheyoungvoteEuropeFrançoisHollandeAde�antoptimistIrelandEighthausteritybudgetItalyHownottorescueanairlineThechurchinGermanyBishopofblingRiotsinRussiaDangerousgameRussianprisonsSlavelabourandcriminalculturesCharlemagneTheEU’sbigrailprojectDailyanalysisandopinionfromourblogs,plusaudioandvideocontent,debatesandadailychartEconomistcomblogsEmail:newslettersandmobileeditionEconomistcomemailPrintedition:availableonlinebypmLondontimeeachThursdayEconomistcomprintAudioedition:availableonlinetodownloadeachFridayEconomistcomaudioeditionTheEconomistonlineVolumeNumberPublishedsinceSeptembertotakepartin"aseverecontestbetweenintelligence,whichpressesforward,andanunworthy,timidignoranceobstructingourprogress"Editorialo�cesinLondonandalso:Atlanta,Beijing,Berlin,Brussels,Cairo,Chicago,HongKong,Johannesburg,LosAngeles,MexicoCity,Moscow,NewDelhi,NewYork,Paris,SanFrancisco,SãoPaulo,Singapore,Tokyo,WashingtonDCContentscontinuesoverleafContentsOnthecoverScienti�cresearchhaschangedtheworldNowitneedstochangeitself:leader,pageScientistsliketothinkofscienceasselfcorrectingToanalarmingdegree,itisnot,pagesTalkingtoIranAdealthatallowsIrantoenrichuraniumwithstrictlimitswouldbebetterthannodealatall:leader,pageIransoundsseriousaboutwantinganucleardeal,butgettingonewillbehard,pageAmerica’slawyersurplusThedangersoftakingalegalisticapproachtoAmerica’sbudgetwars:Lexington,pageSachinTendulkarTheimpendingretirementofIndia’scricketinggeniusdemandsnationalintrospection:Banyan,pageTheEconomistOctoberthContentsTheEconomistOctoberth©TheEconomistNewspaperLimitedAllrightsreservedNeitherthispublicationnoranypartofitmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recordingorotherwise,withoutthepriorpermissionofTheEconomistNewspaperLimitedTheEconomist(ISSN)ispublishedeveryweek,exceptforayearenddoubleissue,byTheEconomistNewspaperLimited,rdAvenue,thFloor,NewYork,NYTheEconomistisaregisteredtrademarkofTheEconomistNewspaperLimitedPeriodicalspostagepaidatNewYork,NYandadditionalmailingo�cesPostmaster:SendaddresschangestoTheEconomist,POBox,StLouis,MO,USACanadaPostpublicationsmail(Canadiandistribution)salesagreementnoReturnundeliverableCanadianaddressestoTheEconomist,POBoxSTNA,Toronto,ONMWXGSTRPrintedbyRRDonnelley,Strasburg,VAPEFCcerti�edThiscopyofTheEconomistisprintedonpapersourcedfromsustainablymanagedforestscerti�edbyPEFCwwwpefcorgPEFCSubscriptionserviceForourlatestsubscriptionoffers,visitEconomistcomoffersForsubscriptionservice,pleasecontactbytelephone,fax,webormailatthedetailsprovidedbelow:Subscriptionforyear(issues)UnitedStatesUS$CanadaCN$LatinAmericaUS$Telephone:(fromoutsidetheUSandCanada,)Facsimile:(fromoutsidetheUSandCanada,)Web:EconomistsubscomEmail:customerhelpeconomistcomPost:TheEconomistSubscriptionServices,POBox,StLouis,MO,USABritainLondontransportUnderground,overgroundChinesebanksOpenforbusinessBagehotThenewIslamophobesInternationalElectricityEdison’srevengeSolvingglobalproblemsGreymattersSlaveryDrybonesBusinessEurope’sregionalairportsRunwayoranotherRyanair’sfutureOhreally,O’LearyGermanproperty�rmsSafeashousesSoftdrinksinMexicoFizzingwithrageBusinesseducationforlawyersCommerciallawTechnologyandluxurygoodsAhrendtstoAppleTaxisandtechnologyTaptohailSchumpeterWhyIndianbusinesslovesNarendraModiFinanceandeconomicsHighyieldbondsAnappetiteforjunkWorldBankreformZenandtheartofpovertyreductionButtonwoodTryingtoescaperiskBrazil’sdevelopmentbanksAripplebegetsa�oodBanksandtaxevasionHervéliftingMortgagelendingHomesicknessTheHongKongdollarBuynowatpricesFreeexchangeTheNobellaureatesScienceandtechnologyParticleacceleratorsSmallreallyisbeautifulMarineecologyRobochopAIDSBurstingHIV’sbubbleHumanevolutionUnityordiversityBooksandartsDamienHirstinDohaTheywillcomeLeeHarveyOswaldTheRussiayearsRufusNorrisIntothespotlightGeorgianLondonTruegritPhilipRothandJonathanFranzenUnconventionalliterarybiographiesLifeinAntarcticaMindnumbingMalcolmGladwellCannedhamEconomicand�nancialindicatorsStatisticsoneconomies,plusacloserlookatcommodityindicesObituaryNormanJohnGilliesThevoiceofStKildaPrincipalcommercialo�ces:StJames’sStreet,LondonswahgTel:Ruedel’AthénéeGeneva,SwitzerlandTel:rdAvenue,thFloor,NewYork,NYTel:FCentralPlazaHarbourRoad,Wanchai,HongKongTel:Othercommercialo�ces:Chicago,Dubai,Frankfurt,LosAngeles,Paris,SanFranciscoandSingaporeEdison’srevengeThehumbleUSBcableispartofanelectricalrevolutionItwillmakepowersuppliesgreenerandcheaper,pageNobelsandassetpricesInvestorscanpro�tfromtheinsightsofthisyear’sNobelprizewinnersineconomics:leader,pageThewinnersandtheirwork:Freeexchange,pageNextweekWepublishaspecialreportontheKoreasThethparallel,separatingnorthandsouth,isKorea’smostimportantdividinglineButitisonlyoneofmany,saysSimonCoxJunkbondsCompanieshavetakenadvantageofinvestors’willingnesstobuyspeculativebonds,pageInvestingwithoutrisk:Buttonwood,pageTheworldthisweekTheEconomistOctoberthAdealwasreachedtoendthedayshutdownoftheAmericangovernmentandtoincreasethedebtceiling,justhoursaheadofadeadlineafterwhichtheTreasurysaiditwouldhavetroublepayingthegovernment’sbillsRepublicanswonvirtuallynoconcessionsfromDemocratsintheirdemandstodefundObamacareFitchputAmericaonnegativecreditwatchAmericansweredeeplydissatis�edofvoterswouldliketoseethecurrentlotofcongressmenthrownoutofo�ceatnextyear’selectionsAmerica’sSupremeCourtsaiditwouldreviewacasethatwilldecidewhethertheEnvironmentalProtectionAgencyhastheauthoritytoregulatecarbonemissionsfrompowerplantsIntheCourtruledthattheEPAhastherighttoregulateharmfulemissionsfromcarsCoryBooker,themayorofNewarkandarisingstarintheDemocraticParty,wonaspecialelectioninNewJerseyforavacantseatintheSenateStillsmartingBrazil’spresident,DilmaRousse�,announcedplanstocreateasecureemailserviceandtohostaninternationalsummitoninternetsecuritynextyearLastmonthMsRousse�cancelledastatevisittoWashingtoninresponsetorevelationsthatAmerica’sNationalSecurityAgencyspiedonheremailsandonthestateoilcompanyCristinaFernández,Argentina’spresident,wasdischargedfromhospitalaftersurgerytodrainbloodfromherheadSheremainsunderdoctors’orderstorestVenezuela’snavyreleasedanoilexplorationshipoperatedbyAnadarko,anAmericancompany,whichithadseizedinGuyanesewatersVenezuelahasalongstandingclaimtoGuyana’sEssequiboterritoryInaspeechtoCanada’sParliamentsettingoutitslegislativeprogramme,StephenHarper’sConservativegovernmentpromisedtobalancethebudgetwithintwoyearsMrHarperwasalsoaboutto�naliseafreetradeagreementwiththeEuropeanUnionSmokeandmirrorsTheItaliangovernmentapproveditsbudgetItincludestaxandspendingcutsaimedatboostingthescleroticeconomywhilekeepingthebudgetde�citbelowtheceilingofofGDP,asrequiredbytheEUEnricoLetta’sleftrightcoalitiongovernmentsignedo�onthemainbitofthebudgetjustafewhoursbeforeadeadlineimposedbyEUlawthecabinetmetafterwardstoironoutthedetailsAnappealcourtinRussiaupheldtheconvictionofapopularoppositionleader,AlexeiNavalny,forembezzlement,butsuspendedhisjailsentenceAlthoughMrNavalnywasallowedtowalkfree,hisconvictionwillprobablypreventhimfromrunninginthepresidentialelectioninHevowedtostayinpoliticsandtoappealagainsttheverdictRussia’sforeignministryexpressed�regret�afteraDutchdiplomatwasbeatenupinhis�atinMoscowTheDutchforeignministrysummonedRussia’sambassadoramidrisingtensionbetweenthetwocountriesrelatedtotheearlierarrestofaRussiandiplomatintheNetherlands,andRussia’sdetentionofthecrewofaDutch�aggedGreenpeaceshipMarineLePen’sfarrightNationalFrontbaggedasymboliclocalbyelectionvictoryinsouthernFranceMeanwhile,theSocialists’primaryelectionfornextyear’smayoralraceinMarseillewaswonbyasenatorstylingherselfasthe�queenofthesuburbs�VotersrejectedagovernmentministerwhohadcontestedtheprimaryTwoweeksafterhundredsofAfricanmigrantsdiedwhentheirboatsanko�thecoastoftheItalianislandofLampedusa,anotherwererescuedbetweenSicilyandLibyaThreedaysbeforethatanothermigrantboatcapsizednearItaly,killingatleastMorethan,migrantshavelandedonItalianshoressofarthisyearAtleastthey’retalkingAfterasixmonthhiatus,talksresumedbetweenIranandthe�vepermanentmembersoftheUNSecurityCouncilplusGermany,knownastheP,overtheIslamicRepublic’sdisputednuclearplansAtameetinginGeneva,theIranianspresentedatimelineunderwhichIranwouldagreetolimititsnuclearprogrammeinreturnforrecognitionofitsrighttocontinueenrichinguraniumandrelieffromtheeconomicsanctionshurtingitseconomyThepartiesagreedtomeetagaininthreeweeksTheAfricanUnionpassedaresolutiondemandingthattheInternationalCriminalCourtinTheHaguegrantimmunitytoAfricanleaderswhiletheyarestillino�ce,castinguncertaintyoverthetrialduetostartnextmonthofUhuruKenyatta,Kenya’spresidentHehasbeenchargedwithcrimesagainsthumanityWilliamRuto,hisdeputy,whosetrialbeganlastmonth,iscooperatingwiththecourtbuthasaskedthathebeallowed�sporadicabsences�CharlesTaylor,aformerpresidentofLiberia,arrivedinBritaintoservetheremainderofayearprisonsentenceforwarcrimes,afterhisrequesttoservehisjailtimeinRwandawasrejectedMrTaylorwasconvictedlastyearbyaUNbackedspecialcourtinTheHagueforcrimescommittedinSierraLeoneduringitscivilwarinthesCitizenangerDemonstratorsclashedwithpoliceintheeasternChinesecityofYuyaooverthelocalgovernment’s�oodreliefe�ortsThousandsofpeoplewereprotestingthattoolittlehadbeendonetohelpresidentsinthewakeofTyphoonFitowAustralia’snewprimeminister,TonyAbbott,publisheddraftlegislationtorepealthecountry’scarbontaxMrAbbottsaysthetaxhasforcedupenergypricesandcausedjoblosses,andintendstoreplacethetaxbypayingfarmersandindustrytoreduceemissionsThegovernorofLogarprovinceineasternAfghanistanwaskilledbyabombblastatamosqueThebombwasapparentlyhiddeninamicrophoneLogar,justsouthofthecapital,Kabul,isincreasinglycomingunderTalibancontrolReliefe�ortscontinuedontheislandofBoholinthecentralPhilippines,afteranearthquakeofmagnitudestrucktheregionMorethanpeoplediedinthequake,someofthemontheneighbouringislandofCebuPoliticsTheEconomistOctoberthTheworldthisweekOthereconomicdataandnewscanbefoundonpagesAmerica’sbigbanksreportedearningsforthethirdquarterBankofAmerica,CitigroupandWellsFargopostedsolidpro�ts,thoughthemortgageloanbusinessesinallthreesu�eredIncontrast,JPMorganChasedeclareda$mnetloss,its�rstunderJamieDimonaschiefexecutive,asitsetaside$billionforpotentialsettlementcostsinaslewoflegalcasesbroughtbyAmericanregulatorsAlighttouchOnatriptoChinaGeorgeOsborne,Britain’schancelloroftheexchequer,outlinedproposalstosmooththewayforChinesestateownedbankstooperateinLondon,suchasclassifyingthemasbranchesratherthansubsidiaries,therebyavoidingrigorousscrutinyInternationaltradingintheyuanhastripledoverthepastthreeyearsto$billionaday,withLondonemergingastheglobalhubBlackRock’snetincomeinthethirdquarterrosebyto$mInSeptemberassetsundermanagementatthegiantinvestmentcompanypassed$trillionforthe�rsttimeItemergedthatSirHectorSantsistakingthreemonthso�asheadofglobalcomplianceatBarclaysbecauseofstressSirHectorusedtoheadBritain’s�nancialregulatoryauthorityHewasparachutedintoBarclayswiththeresponsibilityofmakingsurethebank’ssta�followtheletterofthelawinthedozensofcountriesinwhichitoperatesAmericanauthoritiesareinvestigatingitscapitalraisingactivitiesintheMiddleEastInaregulatory�lingTwitterdisclosedthatitwilllistsharesinitseagerlyawaitedIPOontheNewYorkStockExchange,aslapinthefaceforNASDAQafterthetechnicalmishapsthatbesetFacebook’s�otationlastyearTwitteralsorevealedthatitsrevenueinthethirdquarterhaddoubledto$mfromthesameperiodayearearlier,butthatitsnetlosshadtripled,to$mCarlosSlim’sAméricaMóvilgaveupitsbidforKPN,aDutchtelecomscompany,afterthefoundationthatlooksoutfortheinterestsofKPNinvestors�andDutchsocietymoregenerally�exerciseditsrighttobuyofthesharesAppleappointedAngelaAhrendtsasheadofitsretailoperationsShehasbeenthechiefexecutiveofBurberryforsevenyearsandiscreditedwithrevivingtheBritishfashionhousewithdesignsthateschewitsubiquitousplaidApple’sretailstrategycouldalsodowithabitofamakeoversalesatitsstoresweredownearlierthisyearforthe�rsttimesinceThe�DoubleIrish�Meanwhile,theIrishgovernmentclosedataxloopholethathadallowedAppletoregister�stateless�subsidiariesinthecountry,throughwhichitwasabletoshield$billionfromtheAmericantaxmanButAppleandotherscanstillsetupbusinessinIrelandandlistalowtaxjurisdiction,suchasBermuda,astheirhomecountryandparkincomeinthelowertaxregimeInthebiggestdealyetinmobilegaming,Japan’sSoftbankacquiredastakeinSupercell,whichisbasedinFinland,for$billionSupercellhashadsuccesswithtwobestsellinggamesthatarefreetodownloadonsmartphonesandtablets,andthenenticeusersintopayingafeeiftheywanttoquickenthepaceofplayBluegreensBigindustryscoredtwowinswhentheEuropeanUnionmovedtowaterdownpoliciesoncurbingemissionsfromcarsandplanesTheEUagreedtoreviewaGermanproposalformore�exibilityinreducingemissionsfromnewvehicles(Germancarmakersproducemodelswithlowerfuele�ciencythanFrenchandItalianones)AnditpresentedamendmentsthatwillcurbemissionsonjetsonlywhentheyenterEUairspace,afterairlinesobjectedtoemissioncurbsontotal�yingtimesTheItaliangovernment’sproposedbailoutofAlitaliadrewcriticismItaly’snationalairlinehasnotmadeapro�tinadecadeandlost�m($m)adayinthe�rstsixmonthsoftheyear,butthegovernmenthasproposedasharerestructuringthatisbackedpartlybythestateownedposto�ce,PosteItalianeInternationalAirlineGroup,whichownsBritishAirways,fumedthattheplanwasprotectionistRoyalMail’ssharepricesoaredafteritwas�oatedonthestockmarketinthebiggestprivatisationinBritainsinceasello�boominthesandearlysThereweresomedi�erenceswiththattimeAround,peopleappliedforshares,farfewerthanthemwhosoughtsharesinBritishGasinAndinvestorstradedtheirsharesontheinternet,despitetheinevitablecrashesonoverloadedwebsitesOneaspectstruckafamiliarringDespitebeinggivenofthesharesinRoyalMail,postalworkersvotedtostrikeinNovemberBusinessBritishprivatisationsSource:ThomsonReuters*SelectedsharesFirstdaytrading*increaseinsharepriceRoyalMail()RollsRoyce()BT()BritishGas()BritishSteel()LeadersASIMPLEideaunderpinsscience:�trust,butverify�ResultsshouldalwaysbesubjecttochallengefromexperimentThatsimplebutpowerfulideahasgeneratedavastbodyofknowledgeSinceitsbirthinthethcentury,modernsciencehaschangedtheworldbeyondrecognition,andoverwhelminglyforthebetterButsuccesscanbreedcomplacencyModernscientistsaredoingtoomuchtrustingandnotenoughverifying�tothedetrimentofthewholeofscience,andofhumanityToomanyofthe�ndingsthat�lltheacademicetheraretheresultofshoddyexperimentsorpooranalysis(seepages)Aruleofthumbamongbiotechnologyventurecapitalistsisthathalfofpublishedresearchcannot

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