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和机器赛跑_Race_Against_The_Machine_…

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简介:本文档为《和机器赛跑_Race_Against_The_Machine_Brynjolfsson, Erikpdf》,可适用于哲学、历史领域,主题内容包含RaceAgainsttheMachineHowtheDigitalRevolutionisAcceleratingInnovation,Drivi符等。

RaceAgainsttheMachineHowtheDigitalRevolutionisAcceleratingInnovation,DrivingProductivity,andIrreversiblyTransformingEmploymentandtheEconomyErikBrynjolfssonandAndrewMcAfeeDigitalFrontierPressLexington,MassachusettsErikBrynjolfssonandAndrewMcAfeeAllrightsreservedNopartofthebookmaybereproducedinanyformbyanyelectronicormechanicalmeans(includingphotocopying,recording,orinformationstorageandretrieval)withoutpermissioninwritingfromthepublisherForinformationaboutquantitydiscounts,emailinforaceagainstthemachinecomwwwRaceAgainstTheMachinecomLibraryofCongressCataloginginPublicationDataBrynjolfsson,ErikRaceagainstthemachine:howthedigitalrevolutionisacceleratinginnovation,drivingproductivity,andirreversiblytransformingemploymentandtheeconomypcmeISBNTechnologicalinnovations–EconomicAspectsIMcAfee,AndrewIITitleeBookscreatedbywwwebookconversioncomContentsTechnology’sInfluenceonEmploymentandtheEconomyHumanityandTechnologyontheSecondHalfoftheChessboardCreativeDestruction:TheEconomicsofAcceleratingTechnologyandDisappearingJobsWhatIstoBeDonePrescriptionsandRecommendationsConclusion:TheDigitalFrontierAcknowledgmentsTomyparents,AriandMargueriteBrynjolfsson,whoalwaysbelievedinmeTomyfather,DavidMcAfee,whoshowedmethatthere’snothingbetterthanajobwelldoneChapterTechnology’sInfluenceonEmploymentandtheEconomyIf,inlikemanner,theshuttlewouldweaveandtheplectrumtouchthelyrewithoutahandtoguidethem,chiefworkmenwouldnotwantservantsAristotleThisisabookabouthowinformationtechnologiesareaffectingjobs,skills,wages,andtheeconomyTounderstandwhythisisavitalsubject,weneedonlylookattherecentstatisticsaboutjobgrowthintheUnitedStatesBythelatesummerof,theUSeconomyhadreachedapointwhereevenbadnewsseemedgoodThegovernmentreleasedareportshowingthat,jobshadbeencreatedinJulyThisrepresentedanimprovementoverMayandJune,whenfewerthan,totaljobshadbeencreated,sothereportwaswellreceivedAheadlineintheAugusteditionoftheNewYorkTimesdeclared,“USReportsSolidJobGrowth”Behindthoserosyheadlines,however,layathornyproblemThe,newjobsweren'tevenenoughtokeepupwithpopulationgrowth,letalonereemployanyoftheapproximatelymillionAmericanswhohadlosttheirjobsintheGreatRecessionofEconomistLauraD’AndreaTysoncalculatedthatevenifjobcreationalmostdoubled,tothe,jobspermonthexperiencedthroughout,itwouldtakeuntiltoclosethegapopenedbytherecessionJobcreationatthelevelobservedduringJulyof,ontheotherhand,wouldensureonlyaneversmallerpercentageofemployedAmericansovertimeAndinSeptemberthegovernmentreportedthatabsolutelynonetnewjobshadbeencreatedinAugustOfallthegrimstatisticsandstoriesaccompanyingtheGreatRecessionandsubsequentrecovery,thoserelatedtoemploymentweretheworstRecessionsalwaysincreasejoblessness,ofcourse,butbetweenMayandOctoberunemploymentjumpedbymorethanpercentagepoints,thelargestincreaseinthepostwarperiodAnEconomyThat’sNotPuttingPeopleBacktoWorkAnevenbiggerproblem,however,wasthattheunemployedcouldn'tfindworkevenaftereconomicgrowthresumedInJulyof,monthsaftertherecessionofficiallyended,themainUSunemploymentrateremainedat,lessthanpercentagepointbetterthanitwasatitsworstpointThemeanlengthoftimeunemployedhadskyrocketedtoweeksbythemiddleof,adurationalmosttwiceaslongasthatobservedduringanypreviouspostwarrecoveryAndtheworkforceparticipationrate,orproportionofworkingageadultswithjobs,fellbelowalevelnotseensincewhenwomenhadnotyetenteredthelaborforceinlargenumbersEveryoneagreedthatthiswasadireproblemNobelPrizewinningeconomistPaulKrugmandescribedunemploymentasa“terriblescourge…acontinuingtragedy…Howcanweexpecttoprospertwodecadesfromnowwhenmillionsofyounggraduatesare,ineffect,beingdeniedthechancetogetstartedontheircareers”WritinginTheAtlantic,DonPeckdescribedchronicunemploymentas“apestilencethatslowlyeatsawayatpeople,families,and,ifitspreadswidelyenough,thefabricofsocietyIndeed,historysuggeststhatitisperhapssociety’smostnoxiousill…Thiseraofhighjoblessness…islikelytowarpourpolitics,ourculture,andthecharacterofoursocietyformanyyears”HiscolleagueMeganMcArdleaskedherreaderstovisualizepeoplewhohadbeenunemployedforalongtime:“Thinkaboutwhatishappeningtomillionsofpeopleoutthere…whosesavingsandsocialnetworksareexhausted(orwereneververybigtobeginwith),whoareintheirfiftiesandnotyoungenoughtoretire,butveryhardtoplacewithanemployerwhowillpaythemasmuchastheywereworthtotheiroldfirmThinkofthepeoplewhocan'tsupporttheirchildren,orthemselvesThinkoftheirdespair”ManyAmericansdidthinkofsuchpeopleTwentyfourpercentofrespondentstoaJuneGalluppollidentified“unemploymentjobs”asthemostimportantproblemfacingAmerica(thisinadditiontotheidentifying“economyingeneral”)ThegrimunemploymentstatisticspuzzledmanybecauseothermeasuresofbusinesshealthreboundedprettyquicklyaftertheGreatRecessionofficiallyendedinJuneGDPgrowthaveragedinthesevenquartersaftertherecession’send,arateashighasthelongtermaverageoverUScorporateprofitsreachednewrecordsAndby,investmentinequipmentandsoftwarereturnedtoofitshistoricalpeak,thefastestrecoveryofequipmentinvestmentinagenerationEconomichistoryteachesthatwhencompaniesgrow,earnprofits,andbuyequipment,theyalsotypicallyhireworkersButAmericancompaniesdidn’tresumehiringaftertheGreatRecessionendedThevolumeoflayoffsquicklyreturnedtoprerecessionlevels,socompaniesstoppedsheddingworkersButthenumberofnewhiresremainedseverelydepressedCompaniesbroughtnewmachinesin,butnotnewpeopleWhereDidtheJobsGoWhyhasthescourgeofunemploymentbeensopersistentAnalystsofferthreealternativeexplanations:cyclicality,stagnation,andthe“endofwork”Thecyclicalexplanationholdsthatthere’snothingnewormysteriousgoingonunemploymentinAmericaremainssohighsimplybecausetheeconomyisnotgrowingquicklyenoughtoputpeoplebacktoworkPaulKrugmanisoneoftheprimeadvocatesofthisexplanationAshewrites,“AllthefactssuggestthathighunemploymentinAmericaistheresultofinadequatedemandfullstop”FormerOfficeofManagementandBudgetdirectorPeterOrszagagrees,writingthat“thefundamentalimpedimenttogettingjoblessAmericansbacktoworkisweakgrowth”Inthecyclicalexplanation,anespeciallydeepdropindemandliketheGreatRecessionisboundtobefollowedbyalongandfrustratinglyslowrecoveryWhatAmericahasbeenexperiencingsince,inshort,isanothercaseofthebusinesscycleinaction,albeitaparticularlypainfuloneAsecondexplanationforcurrenthardtimesseesstagnation,notcyclicality,inactionStagnationinthiscontextmeansalongtermdeclineinAmerica’sabilitytoinnovateandincreaseproductivityEconomistTylerCowenarticulatesthisviewinhisbook,TheGreatStagnation:WearefailingtounderstandwhywearefailingAlloftheseproblemshaveasingle,littlenoticedrootcause:Wehavebeenlivingofflowhangingfruitforatleastthreehundredyears…Yetduringthelastfortyyears,thatlowhangingfruitstarteddisappearing,andwestartedpretendingitwasstillthereWehavefailedtorecognizethatweareatatechnologicalplateauandthetreesaremorebarethanwewouldliketothinkThat’sitThatiswhathasgonewrongTosupporthisview,CowencitesthedecliningmedianincomeofAmericanfamiliesMedianincomeisahalfwaypointthereareasmanyfamiliesmakinglessthanthisamountastherearemakingmoreThegrowthofmedianincomesloweddownsignificantlyatleastyearsago,andactuallydeclinedduringthefirstdecadeofthiscenturytheaveragefamilyinAmericaearnedlessinthanitdidinCowenattributesthisslowdowntothefactthattheeconomyhasreacheda“technologicalplateau”WritingintheHarvardBusinessReview,LeoTilmanandtheNobelPrizewinningeconomistEdmundPhelpsagreedwiththisstagnation:“America’sdynamismitsabilityandproclivitytoinnovatehasbroughteconomicinclusionbycreatingnumerousjobsIthasalsobroughtrealprosperityengaging,challengingjobsandcareersofselfrealizationandselfdiscovery…butdynamismhasbeenindeclineoverthepastdecade”Thestagnationargumentdoesn’tignoretheGreatRecession,butalsodoesn’tbelievethatit’stheprinciplecauseofthecurrentslowrecoveryandhighjoblessnessThesewoeshaveamorefundamentalsource:aslowdowninthekindsofpowerfulnewideasthatdriveeconomicprogressThisslowdownpredatestheGreatRecessionInTheGreatStagnation,infact,Cowenmaintainedthatit’sbeengoingonsincethes,whenUSproductivitygrowthslowedandthemedianincomeofAmericanfamiliesstoppedrisingasquicklyasithadinthepastCowen,Phelps,andother“stagnationists”holdthatonlyhigherratesofinnovationandtechnicalprogresswilllifttheeconomyoutofitscurrentdoldrumsAvariantonthisexplanationisnotthatAmericahasstagnated,butthatothernationssuchasIndiaandChinahavebeguntocatchupInaglobaleconomy,Americabusinessesandworkerscan’tearnapremiumiftheydon’thavegreaterproductivitythantheircounterpartsinothernationsTechnologyhaseliminatedmanyofthebarriersofgeographyandignorancethatpreviouslykeptcapitalistsandconsumersfromfindingthelowestpriceinputsandproductsanywhereintheworldTheresulthasbeenagreatequalizationinfactorpriceslikewages,raisingsalariesindevelopingnationsandforcingAmericanlabortocompeteondifferenttermsNobelprizewinnerMichaelSpencehasanalyzedthisphenomenonanditsimplicationsforconvergenceinlivingstandardsThethirdexplanationforAmerica’scurrentjobcreationproblemsflipsthestagnationargumentonitshead,seeingnottoolittlerecenttechnologicalprogress,butinsteadtoomuchWe’llcallthisthe“endofwork”argument,afterJeremyRifkin’sbookofthesametitleInit,Rifkinlaidoutaboldanddisturbinghypothesis:that“weareenteringanewphaseinworldhistoryoneinwhichfewerandfewerworkerswillbeneededtoproducethegoodsandservicesfortheglobalpopulation”Computerscausedthisimportantshift“Intheyearsahead,”Rifkinwrote,“moresophisticatedsoftwaretechnologiesaregoingtobringcivilizationeverclosertoanearworkerlessworld…Today,all…sectorsoftheeconomy…areexperiencingtechnologicaldisplacement,forcingmillionsontotheunemploymentroles”Copingwiththisdisplacement,hewrote,was“likelytobethesinglemostpressingsocialissueofthecomingcentury”Theendofworkargumenthasbeenmadeby,amongmanyothers,economistJohnMaynardKeynes,managementtheoristPeterDrucker,andNobelPrizewinnerWassilyLeontief,whostatedinthat“theroleofhumansasthemostimportantfactorofproductionisboundtodiminishinthesamewaythattheroleofhorsesinagriculturalproductionwasfirstdiminishedandtheneliminatedbytheintroductionoftractors”InhisbookTheLightsintheTunnel,softwareexecutiveMartinFordagreed,statingthat“atsomepointinthefutureitmightbemanyyearsordecadesfromnowmachineswillbeabletodothejobsofalargepercentageofthe‘average’peopleinourpopulation,andthesepeoplewillnotbeabletofindnewjobs”BrianArthurarguesthatavast,butlargelyinvisible“secondeconomy”alreadyexistsintheformofdigitalautomationTheendofworkargumentisanintuitivelyappealingoneeverytimewegetcashfromanATMinsteadofatelleroruseanautomatedkiosktocheckinatanairportforaflight,weseeevidencethattechnologydisplaceshumanlaborButlowunemploymentlevelsintheUnitedStatesthroughoutthes,’s,andfirstsevenyearsofthenewmillenniumdidmuchtodiscreditfearsofdisplacement,andithasnotbeenfeaturedinthemainstreamdiscussionoftoday’sjoblessrecoveryForexample,areportpublishedbytheFederalReserveBankofRichmond,titled“TheRiseinLongTermUnemployment:PotentialCausesandImplications,”doesnotcontainthewordscomputer,hardware,software,ortechnologyinitstextWorkingpaperspublishedinbytheInternationalMonetaryFund,titled“NewEvidenceonCyclicalandStructuralSourcesofUnemployment”and“HastheGreatRecessionRaisedUSStructuralUnemployment”aresimilarlysilentabouttechnologyAstechnologyjournalistFarhadManjoosummarizedintheonlinemagazineSlate,“Mosteconomistsaren'ttakingtheseworriesveryseriouslyTheideathatcomputersmightsignificantlydisrupthumanlabormarketsand,thus,furtherweakentheglobaleconomysofarremainsonthefringes”OurGoal:BringingTechnologyintotheDiscussionWethinkit’stimetobringthisideaintothemainstreamandtopaymoreattentiontotechnology’simpactonskills,wages,andemploymentWecertainlyagreethataGreatRecessionimpliesalongrecovery,andthatcurrentsluggishdemandisinlargeparttoblamefortoday’slackofjobsButcyclicalweakdemandisnotthewholestoryThestagnationistsarerightthatlongeranddeepertrendsarealsoatworkTheGreatRecessionhasmadethemmorevisible,butthey’vebeengoingonforawhileThestagnationistscorrectlypointoutthatmedianincomeandotherimportantmeasuresofAmericaneconomichealthstoppedgrowingrobustlysometimeago,butwedisagreewiththemaboutwhythishashappenedTheythinkit’sbecausethepaceoftechnologicalinnovationhassloweddownWethinkit’sbecausethepacehasspedupsomuchthatit’sleftalotofpeoplebehindManyworkers,inshort,arelosingtheraceagainstthemachineAndit’snotjustworkersTechnologicalprogressinparticular,improvementsincomputerhardware,software,andnetworkshasbeensorapidandsosurprisingthatmanypresentdayorganizations,institutions,policies,andmindsetsarenotkeepingupViewedthroughthislens,theincreaseinglobalizationisnotanalternativeexplanation,butratheroneoftheconsequencesoftheincreasedpowerandubiquityoftechnologySoweagreewiththeendofworkcrowdthatcomputerizationisbringingdeepchanges,butwe’renotaspessimisticastheyareWedon’tbelieveinthecomingobsolescenceofallhumanworkersInfact,somehumanskillsaremorevaluablethanever,eveninanageofincrediblypowerfulandcapabledigitaltechnologiesButotherskillshavebecomeworthless,andpeoplewhoholdthewrongonesnowfindthattheyhavelittletoofferemployersThey’relosingtheraceagainstthemachine,afactreflectedintoday’semploymentstatisticsWewrotethisbookbecausewebelievethatdigitaltechnologiesareoneofthemostimportantdrivingforcesintheeconomytodayThey’retransformingtheworldofworkandarekeydriversofproductivityandgrowthYettheirimpactonemploymentisnotwellunderstood,anddefinitelynotfullyappreciatedWhenpeopletalkaboutjobsinAmericatoday,theytalkaboutcyclicality,outsourcingandoffshoring,taxesandregulation,andthewisdomandefficacyofdifferentkindsofstimulusWedon’tdoubttheimportanceofallthesefactorsTheeconomyisacomplex,multifacetedentityButtherehasbeenrelativelylittletalkaboutroleofaccelerationoftechnologyItmayseemparadoxicalthatfasterprogresscanhurtwagesandjobsformillionsofpeople,butwearguethat’swhat’sbeenhappeningAswe’llshow,computersarenowdoingmanythingsthatusedtobethedomainofpeopleonlyThepaceandscaleofthisencroachmentintohumanskillsisrelativelyrecentandhasprofoundeconomicimplicationsPerhapsthemostimportantoftheseisthatwhiledigitalprogressgrowstheoveralleconomicpie,itcandosowhileleavingsomepeople,orevenalotofthem,worseoffAndcomputers(hardware,software,andnetworks)areonlygoingtogetmorepowerfulandcapableinthefuture,andhaveaneverbiggerimpactonjobs,skills,andtheeconomyTherootofourproblemsisnotthatwe’reinaGreatRecession,oraGreatStagnation,butratherthatweareintheearlythroesofaGreatRestructuringOurtechnologiesareracingaheadbutmanyofourskillsandorganizationsarelaggingbehindSoit’surgentthatweunderstandthesephenomena,discusstheirimplications,andcomeupwithstrategiesthatallowhumanworkerstoraceaheadwithmachinesinsteadofracingagainstthemHere’showwe’llproceedthroughtherestofthisbook:HumanityandTechnologyontheSecondHalfoftheChessboardWhyarecomputersracingaheadofworkersnowAndwhat,ifanything,canbedoneaboutitChapterdiscussesdigitaltechnology,givingexamplesofjusthowastonishingrecentdevelopmentshavebeenandshowinghowtheyhaveupsetwellestablishedideasaboutwhatcomputersareandaren’tgoodatWhat’smore,theprogresswe’veexperiencedaugursevenlargeradvancesincomingyearsWeexplainthesourcesofthisprogress,andalsoitslimitationsCreativeDestruction:TheEconomicsofAcceleratingTechnologyandDisappearingJobsChapterexplorestheeconomicimplicationsoftheserapidtechnologicaladvancesandthegrowingmismatchesthatcreatebotheconomicwinnersandlosersItconcentratesonthreetheoriesthatexplainhowsuchprogresscanleavesomepeoplebehind,evenasitbenefitssocietyasawholeTherearedivergencesbetweenhigherskilledandlowerskilledworkers,betweensuperstarsandeveryoneelse,andbetweencapitalandlaborWepresentevidencethatallthreedivergencesaretakingplaceWhatIstoBeDonePrescriptionsandRecommendationsOncetechnicaltrendsandeconomicprinciplesareclear,ChapterconsiderswhatwecanandshoulddotomeetthechallengesofhighunemploymentandothernegativeconsequencesofourcurrentraceagainstthemachineWecan’twinthatrace,especiallyascomputerscontinuetobecomemorepowerfulandcapableButwecanlearntobetterracewithmachines,usingthemasalliesratherthanadversariesWediscusswaystoputthisprincipleintopractice,concentratingonwaystoaccelerateorganizationalinnovationandenhancehumancapitalConclusion:TheDigitalFrontierWeconcludeinChapteronanupbeatnoteThismightseemoddinabookaboutjobsandtheeconomywrittenduringatimeofhighunemployment,stagnantwages,andanemicGDPgrowthButthisisfundamentallyabookaboutdigitaltechnology,andwhenwelookatthefullimpactofcomputersandnetworks,nowandinthefuture,weareveryoptimisticindeedThesetoolsaregreatlyimprovingourworldandourlives,andwillcontinuetodosoWeare

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