罗宾斯管理学讲义06

nullnullL E A R N I N G O U T L I N E Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.The Decision-Making Process Define decision and decision-making process. Describe the eight steps in the decision-making process. Explain the challenges managers face in identifying problems. Discuss why decision criteria are important in the decision-making process. Describe how managers develop, analyze, and select alternatives. Explain what happens during implementation and evaluation.L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E (cont’d) Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E (cont’d) Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.The Managers as Decision Maker Explain why decision making is synonymous with managing. Discuss the assumptions of rational decision making. Describe the concepts of bounded rationality, satisficing, and escalation of commitment. Explain what intuition is and how it affects decision making. Contrast programmed and nonprogrammed decisions. Define the three forms of programmed decision making. Contrast the three decision-making conditions.L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E (cont’d) Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E (cont’d) Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.The Managers as Decision Maker (cont’d) Explain maximax, maximin, and minimax decision choice approaches. Describe the four decision making styles. Discuss the twelve decision-making biases managers may exhibit. Describe how manager can deal with the negative effects of decision errors and biases. Explain the managerial decision-making model. Decision Making for Today’s World Describe today’s decision-making environment.L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E (cont’d) Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E (cont’d) Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.Decision Making for Today’s World (cont’d) Explain how managers can make effective decisions in today’s world. List six characteristics of an effective decision-making process. Tell what a highly reliable organization is. Describe the five habits of highly reliable organizations.L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E (cont’d) Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E (cont’d) Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.What Is An Organization? Describe the characteristics of an organization. Explain how the concept of an organization is changing. Why Study Management? Explain the universality of management concept. Discuss why an understanding of management is important even if you don’t plan to be a manager. Describe the rewards and challenges of being a manager.Decision MakingDecision MakingDecision Making a choice from two or more alternatives. The Decision-Making Process Identifying a problem and decision criteria and allocating weights to the criteria. Developing, analyzing, and selecting an alternative that can resolve the problem. Implementing the selected alternative. Evaluating the decision’s effectiveness.Step 1: Identifying the ProblemStep 1: Identifying the ProblemProblem A discrepancy between an existing and desired state of affairs. Characteristics of Problems A problem becomes a problem when a manager becomes aware of it. There is pressure to solve the problem. The manager must have the authority, information, or resources needed to solve the problem.Step 2: Identifying Decision CriteriaStep 2: Identifying Decision CriteriaDecision criteria are factors that are important (relevant) to resolving the problem. Costs that will be incurred (investments required) Risks likely to be encountered (chance of failure) Outcomes that are desired (growth of the firm)Step 3: Allocating Weights to the CriteriaDecision criteria are not of equal importance: Assigning a weight to each item places the items in the correct priority order of their importance in the decision making process.Step 4: Developing AlternativesStep 4: Developing AlternativesIdentifying viable alternatives Alternatives are listed (without evaluation) that can resolve the problem.Step 5: Analyzing AlternativesAppraising each alternative’s strengths and weaknesses An alternative’s appraisal is based on its ability to resolve the issues identified in steps 2 and 3.Step 6: Selecting an AlternativeStep 6: Selecting an AlternativeChoosing the best alternative The alternative with the highest total weight is chosen.Step 7: Implementing the DecisionPutting the chosen alternative into action. Conveying the decision to and gaining commitment from those who will carry out the decision.Step 8: Evaluating the Decision’s EffectivenessStep 8: Evaluating the Decision’s EffectivenessThe soundness of the decision is judged by its outcomes. How effectively was the problem resolved by outcomes resulting from the chosen alternatives? If the problem was not resolved, what went wrong? Making DecisionsMaking DecisionsRationality Managers make consistent, value-maximizing choices with specified constraints. Assumptions are that decision makers: Are perfectly rational, fully objective, and logical. Have carefully defined the problem and identified all viable alternatives. Have a clear and specific goal Will select the alternative that maximizes outcomes in the organization’s interests rather than in their personal interests.Making Decisions (cont’d)Making Decisions (cont’d)Bounded Rationality Managers make decisions rationally, but are limited (bounded) by their ability to process information. Assumptions are that decision makers: Will not seek out or have knowledge of all alternatives Will satisfice—choose the first alternative encountered that satisfactorily solves the problem—rather than maximize the outcome of their decision by considering all alternatives and choosing the best. Influences on Decision MakingInfluences on Decision MakingEscalation of Commitment Increasing or continuing a commitment to previous decision despite mounting evidence that the decision may have been wrong. The Role of Intuition Intuitive decision making Making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment. Problems and DecisionsProblems and DecisionsStructured Problems Involve goals that clear, Are familiar (have occurred before), Are easily and completely defined—information about the problem is available and complete, Programmed Decision A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach.Types of Programmed DecisionsTypes of Programmed DecisionsA Policy A general guideline for making a decision about a structured problem. A Procedure A series of interrelated steps that a manager can use to respond (applying a policy) to a structured problem. A Rule An explicit statement that limits what a manager or employee can or cannot do in carrying out the steps involved in a procedure.Policy, Procedure, and Rule ExamplePolicy, Procedure, and Rule ExamplePolicy Accept all customer-returned merchandise. Procedure Follow all steps for completing merchandise return documentation. Rules Managers must approve all refunds over $50.00. No credit purchases are refunded for cash.Problems and Decisions (cont’d)Problems and Decisions (cont’d)Unstructured Problems Problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete. Problems that will require custom-made solutions. Nonprogrammed Decisions Decisions that are unique and nonrecurring. Decisions that generate unique responses.Decision-Making ConditionsDecision-Making ConditionsCertainty A ideal situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is known. Risk A situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood (probability) of outcomes that result from the choice of particular alternatives.Decision-Making ConditionsDecision-Making ConditionsUncertainty Limited or information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives associated with the problem and may force managers to rely on intuition, hunches, and “gut feelings”. Maximax: the optimistic manager’s choice to maximize the maximum payoff Maximin: the pessimistic manager’s choice to maximize the minimum payoff Minimax: the manager’s choice to minimize his maximum regret.Decision-Making StylesDecision-Making StylesDimensions of Decision-Making Styles Ways of thinking Rational, orderly, and consistent Intuitive, creative, and unique Tolerance for ambiguity Low tolerance: require consistency and order High tolerance: multiple thoughts simultaneouslyDecision-Making Styles (cont’d)Decision-Making Styles (cont’d)Types of Decision Makers Directive Use minimal information and consider few alternatives. Analytic Make careful decisions in unique situations. Conceptual Maintain a broad outlook and consider many alternatives in making long-term decisions. Behavioral Avoid conflict by working well with others and being receptive to suggestions.Decision-Making Biases and ErrorsDecision-Making Biases and ErrorsHeuristics Using “rules of thumb” to simplify decision making. Overconfidence Bias Holding unrealistically positive views of one’s self and one’s performance. Immediate Gratification Bias Choosing alternatives that offer immediate rewards and that to avoid immediate costs.Decision-Making Biases and Errors (cont’d)Decision-Making Biases and Errors (cont’d)Anchoring Effect Fixating on initial information and ignoring subsequent information. Selective Perception Selecting organizing and interpreting events based on the decision maker’s biased perceptions. Confirmation Bias Seeking out information that reaffirms past choices and discounting contradictory information.Decision-Making Biases and Errors (cont’d)Decision-Making Biases and Errors (cont’d)Framing Bias Selecting and highlighting certain aspects of a situation while ignoring other aspects. Availability Bias Losing decision-making objectivity by focusing on the most recent events. Representation Bias Drawing analogies and seeing identical situations when none exist. Randomness Bias Creating unfounded meaning out of random events.Decision-Making Biases and Errors (cont’d)Decision-Making Biases and Errors (cont’d)Sunk Costs Errors Forgetting that current actions cannot influence past events and relate only to future consequences. Self-Serving Bias Taking quick credit for successes and blaming outside factors for failures. Hindsight Bias Mistakenly believing that an event could have been predicted once the actual outcome is known (after-the-fact).Decision Making for Today’s WorldDecision Making for Today’s WorldGuidelines for making effective decisions: Know when it’s time to call it quits. Practice the five “whys”. Be an effective decision maker. Habits of highly reliable organizations (HROs) Are not tricked by their success. Defer to the experts on the front line. Let unexpected circumstances provide the solution. Embrace complexity Anticipate, but also anticipate their limitsCharacteristics of an Effective Decision-Making ProcessCharacteristics of an Effective Decision-Making ProcessIt focuses on what is important. It is logical and consistent. It acknowledges both subjective and objective thinking and blends analytical with intuitive thinking It requires only as much information and analysis as is necessary to resolve a particular dilemma. It encourages and guides the gathering of relevant information and informed opinion. It is straightforward, reliable, easy to use, and flexible.