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首页 061麦肯锡--中国物流市场研究报告+英文

061麦肯锡--中国物流市场研究报告+英文.pdf

061麦肯锡--中国物流市场研究报告+英文

clarkkevin
2009-10-22 0人阅读 举报 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《061麦肯锡--中国物流市场研究报告+英文pdf》,可适用于行业分析领域

China’sEvolvingLogisticsLandscapeMcKINSEYCOMPANY,GREATERCHINAOFFICEStephenShawandFrankWangJuly,Theauthorsthankthefollowingcolleaguesfortheircontributionstothiswhitepaper:StaffanHertzell,DianaHuang,StevenPei,CynthiaWangPrefaceThisdocumentistheresultofaneffortbyMcKinseyCompany'sGreaterChinapracticetoassesstheimpactofChina'supcomingaccessiontotheWorldTradeOrganisationonthecountry’slogisticsandtransportationsector,asectorthatwillplayakeyroleinChina’songoingeconomicexpansionInthiswhitepaper,wepresentanoverviewofChina'slogisticsandtransportationsector,includingrecentdevelopmentsinthearea,describetheimpactofcurrenteconomicgrowthonthesectorandoutlineaperspectiveonapproachingthemarketinwaysthatincreasethechancesofsuccessMcKinseyCompanyistheworld’sleadinginternationalconsultingfirmassistingleadingcorporationsandselectednonprofitinstitutionsinresolvingcomplexmanagementchallengesinstrategy,organizationandoperationsAprimaryaspectofourmissionistoprovideobjectivecounselinthefaceofthemostcomplexchangeThoseseekingspecificadvicerelatingtothetopicsdiscussedinthiswhitepapershoulddirecttheirinquiriestoStephenShaw,aseniorpartnerinMcKinseyCompany’sHongKongoffice,orStaffanHertzell,aseniorspecialistinTransportandLogisticsinourBrusselsOfficeChina’sEvolvingLogisticsLandscapeEconomicreformsinChinahavealreadybroughtfarreachingchangetomanysectorsofitseconomyNow,it’stheturnofthelogisticsandtransportationsector:ongoingeconomicgrowthandChina’supcomingentryintotheWorldTradeOrganisationcouldverywelltransformthiscurrentlyunderdevelopedsectorWhilegrowthisstimulatingdemand,WTOentrypromisessignificantspillovereffectsonthesectorfromthefurtherexpansionandopeningoftheeconomyArapidexpansionofthesectorisclearlyonthecardsAlready,theChinesegovernmenthasnamedlogisticsastrategicindustryandhascommittedtopromotinginvestmentinanumberoflogisticscentresacrossthecountryRetailchannelsareconsolidatingandmodernizinginthetoptiercities,China’smajorconsumptioncentres,andspreadingtothenexttierofcitiesExpresshighwayslinkingthemajorcitiesarebeingcompletedandprofessionaltruckersareemergingSeeingtheemergingopportunity,newlyestablishedandincumbentserviceprovidersareaggressivelymovingtoprovideupgradedlogisticsandtransportationservicesToday,playersinthesectorincludestateownedenterprises(SOEs),localorjointventurethirdpartylogisticsfirms,foreignentrantsandemergingdomesticplayersinmanufacturinganddistributionButcapturingtheemergingopportunitieswillnotbeeasyApartfromtheusualchallengesofbuildingrelationshipsandnetworks,playersmayfacepolicyshifts,duetosocialorothercompulsions,orcomeupagainstlocalprotectionismthatoftenresultsinbiggapsbetweencentralgovernmentpolicyandlocalpracticesBroadlyspeaking,playersshouldlookforopportunitiesintwomainareas:efficient,networkedtransportationandwarehousingservicesandtruethirdpartylogisticssolutionsThosethatmovefastenough,havetoleranceforhighrisk,andbuildontheiruniquestrengthswilleventuallytriumph,giventherelativelybasicnatureofthelogisticsandtransportationsectortodayLOGISTICSSERVICESHAVEREMAINEDELEMENTARYUntilnow,theChinesemarketforlogisticsandtransportationhasremainedfairlyunderdevelopedLocalcompanieshavehadneitherthedesirenorsophisticationtoseekreallogisticssolutionsMostChinesemanufacturershaveremainedafragmentedlot,partofacellulareconomywithlimited,localdistributionareasInfact,logisticsdemandhasremainedrestrictedtothecentralandcoastalprovinces,aroundthemajorcitiesofGuangdong,ShanghaiandBeijingTianjin,wherecargomovementandindustryoutputarehighlyconcentrated,whichhavethetopoceanportsandthetopriverportsinChina,andwhosepeopleenjoysomeofthehighestpercapitaincomesinthecountry(Exhibit)WhileimportexportactivitiesandsomefreightforwardinghavetraditionallybeenundertakenbystateownedplayerslikeSinotrans(ChinaNationalForeignTradeTransportationCorporation)orCosco(ChinaOceanShippingCompany),mostdomesticlogisticsandgoodstransportneedshavelargelybeenmetbytheSOEsthemselves,astheyhavehistoricallyownedandoperatedtheirowntruckstodelivergoodsdownstreamtodistributorsandwholesalersThesedistributorsandwholesalersinturnhaveboughtthefinishedgoodsandmovedthemtoconsumersthroughahighlyantiquatedandfragmentedretailtradeExhibitTianjinBeijingHeilongjiangJilinLiaoningHebeiShandongFujianJiangxiAnhuiHubeiHunanGuangdongGuangxiShanghaiHenanShanxiHainanInnerMongoliaShaanxiNingxiaGansuQinghaiSichuanGuizhouYunnanTibetXinjiangJiangsuZhejiangTaiwanLOGISTICSANDTRANSPORTATIONDEMANDANDACTIVITIESARECONCENTRATEDINCENTRALANDCOASTALCHINALogisticsandtransportationdemandandactivitiesTopoceanportsTopriverportsSource:ChinaStatisticsYearbookGovernmentIndustryStatisticsYearbooksProvincialCityYearbooksBeijingHuatongrenMarketResearchDalianQinhuangdaoQingdaoNingboGuangzhouShenzhenNantongWuhanZhangjiagangAnqingWuhuHangzhouNanjingNotsurprisingly,transportationandtransportrelatedservicesservingdomesticneedshaveremainedrudimentary,asdescribedbelownShipping:ShippingwithinandacrossChinaissuitedmainlytothetransportofcommoditiesitisveryrarelyagoodsolutionfordistributingfinishedgoodsmainlybecauseofthelargescaleofbulkandcontainershipsandthelowfrequencyandinflexibilityofschedulesofthistransportmodeInChina,domesticshippingtakesplacealongthetwomajorriversrunningfromdeepinlandtothecoastandsoisnotparticularlyusefulforthelargelycoastalorientedeconomyServicesfromonecoastalporttoanotherarerelativelyunderdevelopedForhighvalueortimesensitivefinishedgoods,shippingcannotreallycompetewithothertransportmodesnAirfreight:Airfreightmayhavegreaterpotentialinthefuture,butitsusecanbeproblematictoday(Exhibit)TwomaindifficultiesarethatairlinesandairrouteswithinChinaarehighlyfragmentedandthatmostairlinesfocusheavilyonthepassenger,notcargo,businessCargoplanesmakeuplessthanpercentofChina’saircraft,andthebellyspaceofpassengeraircraftispoorlyutilisedsincedomesticairroutescanbecircuitousandinfrequentandinefficientinformationexchangebetweenairlinesandfreightforwarderscanmakecoordinationanddeliveryanightmareButthebiggerproblemisthelackofaneffectivesupportinggroundbasednetworkWhileChinadoeshavefreightforwarders,duetolackofdemandorofinsight,theyrarelyprovidewellfunctioningsupportingservicessuchaslocalpickupanddelivery,astheircounterpartsindevelopedeconomiesveryoftendoAndwhileparcelpostserviceisavailable,itmeetsonlyasmallfractionofmostmanufacturers’needsfordeliveryoftimesensitiveitemsExhibitAIRROUTESAREFRAGMENTEDANDSERVICEISPOORChinaSouthernAirlines’shareofairroutes,PercentSource:CAACinterviewswithindustryexecutives“Airlineshavetraditionallyignoredthecargobusiness–bellyspaceisanafterthoughtforairlinemanagements”–Airlineexecutive“Thelackofastrongnetworkofairfreightforwarders,andtheirpoororganizationmakesusingairverytroublesomeinChinaForexample,airfreightforwardersgenerallydon’thavelocalpickupanddeliveryservices,eveninthebigcities”–Electronicscompanyexecutive“Thefragmentationofairlines,theirpoorschedules,andtheirpoorecommercecapabilitiesmakecoordinatedbookingandschedulingofairfreightanightmareWehaveprettygivenuponthisasawaytomovegoodsdomestically”–Computercompanyexecutive=,airroutesChinaEasternChinaSouthwestChinaNorthernAirChinaXiamenSichuanNextairlinesRemainingairlinesnRail:Railalsohasseverelimitationsasamodeoftransportingfinishedgoods(Exhibit)Whileitisthelifelineformovingcriticalcommoditiessuchascoal,minerals,andgrain,itisunsuitedtomovingmostmanufacturedfinishedgoodsbecausetherailsystemisdelayridden,hasverylittleflexibility,andlacksagenuineserviceorientationLikeairlines,railservicesarealsoincreasinglyfocusedonthepassengerbusiness,leadingtoneglectofthe‘valuableitems’freightbusinessAnotherconstrainttomovinggoodsbyrailisthatveryfewmanufacturingplantsinChinahaverailsidingsandportsoftenlackmodernandefficientrailsidingsaswellSincetrucksmustbeusedtogetgoodstoandfromtherailsystem,itoftenmakesmoresensetousetrucksfortheentirejourneyExhibitRAILSERVICESAREUNSUITEDTOMOVINGFINISHEDGOODSDescriptionSource:InterviewswithChinesetransportexecutivesProblemsDamagedgoods•Thedamagerateinrailcarloadlessthancarloadcanbe~timesthatoftrucking•Muchofthedamageoccursduringhandlingateitherend•Onlesscongestedroutes,oneweekarrivalwindow•Oncongestedroutes,fourweeksarrivalwindowDelaysuncertainty•Minimalshipmenttracking•RoutinefailuretonotifyshipperwhencargohasarrivedLackofinformation•Railroutesmostlyinplace,butlackingincertainregions,eg,betweenGuangdongandFujian•SignificantamountofnetworknotyetdoubletrackedPoortrackinfrastructure•Forlessthancarload,twoweeksadvancebookingisrequiredandminimumrequirementistons•Forfullcarload,serviceisconstrainedbylongtermagreementsformanybulkshipments(coal,ironore,etc)LongbookingleadtimepooravailabilitynTrucking:ThismodeoftransportinChinaalsosuffersfromconsiderablelimitationsInthefuture,however,itpromisestobethebestmodeforlandbasedlogisticssolutions,asisthecaseinmostmatureeconomiesTruckinghasremainedlargelyacottageindustryinChinaduetoanumberofstructuralfactorsHistorically,productionenterpriseshaveprovidedtheirowngroundbasedtransportationservices,asrequiredinaplannedeconomyinwhichthenotionofhiringsuchserviceswasnotwelldevelopedSincemanufacturingcompaniesownedthetrucks,theirusageremainedveryinefficient,andtheirmanagementunprofessional,and,truckingservicesforhireremainedlimitedtoinformalleasingofafewvehiclesatatimeto‘unofficial,localoperators’ButthebiggestconstrainttothedevelopmentofmoderntruckingnetworksandeffectivecollaborationamongtruckershasbeenlocalprotectionismLocalgovernmentsinChinathinkitveryimportanttoprotecttheirlocaleconomiesbylimitingtheentryoftruckscarryinggoodsfromotherregionsTodothis,theysetupcomplicatedregulatoryrequirementsontransportservicesandstringentbordercontrols(Exhibit)Toillustrate:manycitieswillnotallowtruckstoenterwithoutatediouslicensingandregistrationprocessAsaresult,manytruckstraversingprovincialbordersbecomerestrictedtohaulinggoodsonlyonewayWhileamainaimoflocalauthoritiesistocontroltheflowofgoodsbetweenprovincesorregions,oneconsequenceisthethwartingofthedevelopmentofmoderntruckingnetworksAnotherissuewithtruckingistheheavycostburdenimposedbytollroads:tollsamounttoasmuchaspercentofthetruckers’coststructuresinChinaThismodeoftransporthasthusremainedunreliableintimingandexpensiveNevertheless,giventheflexibilityitoffers,truckingisstillthemodeofchoiceformostfinishedgoodsproducerssupplyingdomesticmarketsandislikelytoremainsointhefutureExhibitTRUCKINGSUFFERSFROMCOMPLICATEDLICENSINGANDLOCALPROTECTIONISMRequiredlicensingprocessesSource:Interviewsliteraturesearch“ManycitieswillnotallowtruckstoenterwithoutatediousregistrationprocessDidyouknowaTianjintruckcannotenterBeijingwithoutwaitinghoursinlinetoregisterforatemporarydeliverypermit”–FreightForwardingExecutive“Ifyourtruckisnotalocaltruck,localauthoritieswilloftengooutoftheirwaytofineanddetainyou”–FreightForwardingExecutive“Evenwithpermissionatthenationallevel,localregulationspreventusfromoperatinginmanyregions”–MajorPortHandlingExecutiveProcessesAuthorityRequirements•Ministryoftransportation(MOT)•RequiredforeveryserviceproviderNationaltruckoperationlicence•Provincialgovernment•RequiredintheprovinceoforiginProvincialoperationlicence•Localcitytransportationbureau•Neededfortruckpurchasingandregistration(eg,inShanghai)Localtrucktitle•Localpoliceauthority•RequiredforprovidingtransportserviceswithinacityLocaltruckoperationallicencenWarehousing:WarehousinginChinabarelymeetscustomerneedsGeneralinfrastructureispoor:mostwarehousesarepoorlydesignedandhavemanualhandlingofgoodsThishampersoperationstheirlowceilingscannotaccommodateautomatedmachines,forexampleandoftendamagesgoodsMostwarehousescannotcatertospecialrequirementssincetheylackhumiditycontrolandcoldstorageandevenfacilitiestostoregoodsseparatelytoavoidcontaminationInadequatemanagement,suchasalackofinformationbasedinventorymanagement,isanotherissueManufacturersanddistributorsarefacedwithhighdiscrepanciesinactualandrecordedinventorydata,ahighratioofmissingitems,andagenerallackofrealtimeproductorordertrackingThesedeficienciesinwarehousinghaveledmanufacturers,particularlyforeignones,tobuildtheirownfacilitiesLogisticsandtransportationserviceshavehistoricallybeenprovided,forafee,byafewmajorSOEswithgovernmentgrantedmonopolies(ornearmonopolies)inrail,shipping,freightforwarding,etcExamplesofthesedominant,assetintensiveplayersareCosco(shipping),Sinotrans(airfreightforwarding,shipping),ChinaPost(mailandparcelpost)andCMST*(warehousingandtrucking)Afewnewlocalorforeignlocaljointventureshavetriedtoofferverylimitedsolutionstospecificindustries,withsomeITservicesandcoordinationofbasictransportservicesExamplesareSTAnda(servingbeveragesandpackagedfoodscompanies),PGLogistics(fastmovingconsumergoods),andEAS(electronics)Foreignentrantshaveforthemostpartbeenthwartedbythetoughpoliciesbarringforeignownershipofdistributionandtransportationassets,theirlowabilitytogaintrueoperatingcontrolofcriticalassetsforinstanceintrucking,andsignificantlocalbarriersTheseplayersandtheircontinuingevolutionaredescribedinmoredetailinthesection‘Competitivelandscape’Thesituationbeganimproving,evenifmarginally,whenmultinationalcompanieswithoperationsinChinastartedseekinglogisticssolutionstomanagedomesticdistributionandimportsexportsThirdpartylogisticscontractsoftwomaintypesresultedOntheonehand,importexportorientedcontractsincomplexassemblyindustriessuchaselectronicsandautomotivesemergedoftenaspartofglobalarrangementsOntheother,localcontractstohandledomesticdistributionfromplantstocityleveldistributorsormajorretailpointsalsodevelopedAlllogisticscustomershowevercontinuetofaceanumberoffrustrationsinmovingtheirgoodstodistributorsandretailersTheycitefivemajordrawbacks:nLoss,damageorpilferageofgoods:BothrailandtruckinginvolvealotofhumanhandlingIntheprocess,goodsaremisplaced,damagedorstolenIncreasingcontainerisationoftrucksiseasingtheproblembutaboutofalltrucksinChinaarestillopenbedtrucksnAlackofreliabilityindeliveryandpickuptimenAlackoftransparencyintheshipmentprocess:InChina,untilgoodsshowupattheirdestination,manufacturershavealmostnoinformationabouttheirwhereaboutsnLackofcontrolinmarketingsales:ManufacturersrelyingonarmslengthdistributorsgenerallyhavenoideahowandwhenanendsaleoccursWithstrongcompetitionbetweendistributors,goodscanendupatunintendeddestinationsorbesoldatunfavourableprices,despiteattemptsbymanufacturerstocurbcrossregionalsalesandtodevelopandmaintainbrandpositioningnHighlogisticscosts:Thelackofeffectivetransportnetworksincreasesdistributioncosts,thusdecreasingprofitmarginsInChina,transportationandwarehousecostscanamounttopercentofthetotalcostsformanufacturedgoods,morethanpercentforfoodandlivestock,andaroundpercentforcertainchemicalproductsOnaverage,bothinventoryanddeliverytimesexceeddays,astriking*ChinaMaterialStorageandTransportationCompanydivergencefromthemostadvancedpracticesTheproblemsareparticularlyacuteformanyovercrowdedsectorsinChina,suchasconsumerelectronicsandhomeappliancesFacingwhitehotcompetitionandcontinuouspricewars,theyareindesperateneedoflogisticsefficiencyimprovementsFortheseandotherplayers,however,reliefmaybeathandLikenature,marketshateavacuumandgatheringmarketforcesarenowcompellingmanyplayers(withsignificantencouragementfromthegovernment)tofillthegapsinChina’slogisticsandtransportationmarketSTRONGFORCESARERESHAPINGTHELANDSCAPETherecentaccelerationofeconomicreformshasprovedastrongforceforchangeinChinaItsdirectoutcomes,economicdevelopmentandmarketgrowth,areincreasingdemandforlogisticsandtransportationservicesInaddition,bychangingregulationandencouraginginvestmentsininfrastructure,thegovernmentisplayingakeyroleinfurtherstimulatingdemandforlogisticsandtransportationEconomicdevelopmentandmarketgrowthIncreasedeconomicdevelopmentandincomegrowthinChinahasexpandedthemarketforconsumergoodstosecondaryandeventertiarycitiesThegeographicmarkethasthusprogressivelyexpandedfromaroundfivecitiestotoandthentocities,increasinglyinlandandtothenortheastbutstillconcentratedalongChina’seastandsouthcoastGiventhelargepopulationsandincreasingspendingpoweroftheseregions,manufacturersarenowlookingforpracticalsolutionstoreliablymovetheirgoodstotheseattractivemarketsDuetoincreasedcompetitiveintensitybecauseofthemultitudesoflocalcompaniesinmanyindustries,aclearlyemergingtrendtowardsconsolidationcanbeseeninmanyofChina’sindustriesInairconditioners,thenumberofplayershasfallenfromoverintobyandinrefrigeratorsfromalmosttolessthan,overthesametimeframeIncolourtelevisions,thetopplayershaveincreasedtheirmarketsharefrompercentintonearlyperc

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061麦肯锡--中国物流市场研究报告+英文

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