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首页 030麦肯锡-美国通讯行业研究报告(英)

030麦肯锡-美国通讯行业研究报告(英).pdf

030麦肯锡-美国通讯行业研究报告(英)

gzgdlyj
2009-07-24 0人阅读 举报 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《030麦肯锡-美国通讯行业研究报告(英)pdf》,可适用于行业分析领域

CONTACTSMCKINSEYCOMPANYJRLowryjameslowrymckinseycomMcKinseyCompany,Boston:JeffKosowskyjeffkosowskymckinseycomMcKinseyCompany,Boston:KusheBahlkushebahlmckinseycomMcKinseyCompany,NewJersey:GOLDMAN,SACHSCODebraKatz,CommunicationsSoftwaredebrakatzgscomGoldmanSachs,NewYork:Natarajan'Subu'Subrahmanyan,USCommunicationsTechnology:DataNetworkingandOpticalComponentsandSystemsnatarajansubrahmanyangscomGoldmanSachs,MenloPark:BrantleyWThompson,USCommunicationsTechnology:WirelineWirelessEquipmentbrantleythompsongscomGoldmanSachs,NewYork:LuanneZurlo,USTelecommunicationsServicesluannezurlogscomGoldmanSachs,NewYork:CONTRIBUTORSACKNOWLEDGEMENTSManypeopleatGoldmanSachsandMcKinseyparticipatedinthecreationofthisreportInparticular,weacknowledgethefollowingindividuals:MCKINSEYCOMPANYGOLDMAN,SACHSCOCoreTeamKusheBahlChrisGilbertJeffKosowskyMoshikoLevharJRLowrySarahPohlenDaiVuBobHuManishSinhaGiladSokolovAbhinavTanejaShingYinSteeringCommitteeGregBesioPeterBissonBradBrownTomFrenchVivekMohindraMikeNevensStaggNewmanJimSeabergOtherAdvisorsContributorsSimonBlackburnCurtisCopelandPerryCuiFerozeDewanChipHardtJamesKaplanAndrewKincheloeSimonLandlessDanaMaorGregMooreJudithStopardCoreTeamHerbBeatsonSaraDawesChristopherFineLisaFontenelliJamesSimmonsErnestKwarteng(parttime)ResearchAnalystsDebraKatzNatarajan'Subu'SubrahmanyanBrantleyWThompsonLuanneZurloOtherContributorsReviewersJeffAdamsLawrenceCalcanoFrankConnorFrankGovernaliChuckHarrisMaryHenryJimHimesTimIngrassiaBradKoenigGregoryLeeRyanLimayeWewouldalsoliketothankalltheindividualsoutsideMcKinseyandGoldmanSachswhospenttimeonthisprojectTheseincluderepresentativesfromthecompaniesweinterviewed,includingserviceproviders,equipmentandcomponentmanufacturers,operationalsupportsystems(OSS)providers,andsystemsintegratorsWewouldliketothankthefollowingindividualsinparticular:BrunoCodispoti,JimFrey,JoeGleeson,GeorgeKawand,VivekKhuller,RandyKorn,TonyMarson,AndrewOdlyzko,DebanjanSaha,andAnnVonLehmenThissummaryisanabstractofalargerreportpublishedjointlybyGoldmanSachsCoandMcKinseyCompanyinAugustForacopyofthefullreport,pleasecontactyourGoldmanSachsCoorMcKinseyCorepresentativeThisreportistheresultofajointresearcheffortbetweenMcKinseyCompanyandGoldmanSachsThisindustrylevelstudyowesitsgenesistoaseriesofongoingconversationsamongtheauthorsandthemutualdecisionthatpoolingresourceswouldproveaproductivemeanstogaininsightintokeymarkettrendsMcKinseyCompanywasnotretainedbyGoldmanSachstoworkonthiseffortGoldmanSachsmaysubsequentlydrawoninformationandconclusionscontainedinthisreporttodevelopinvestmentrecommendationsMcKinseyCompanydoesnotmakeinvestmentrecommendations,inthisreportorotherwise,andnothinginthisreportshouldbeinterpretedasanopinionbyMcKinseyCompanyontheprospectsofspecificcompaniesImportantdisclosuresappearatthebackofthisreportRESEARCHHIGHLIGHTSOPPORTUNITIESAMIDTHEGLOOMTheWallStreetJournal,onJuly,,statedthat“TheimpactoftheTelecombustreverberatesfarbeyondtelecomcarriersandtheirequipmentsuppliers,downthroughafoodchainthatreachesintoalmosteverycorneroftheeconomy”Certainly,thelastyearhasseenaseriouscontractioninstockvaluationsthroughoutthetelecomuniverse,fromserviceproviderstoequipmentandcomponentvendorsEachofthepastthreequartershasproducedafloodofnegativeearningsannouncements,writeoffs,andlayoffsLikeallrapidandwiderangingindustryandeconomicshifts,the“TelecomCrash”givesrisetomorequestionsthananswersHowdidithappenWhereistheindustrynowHowwidearetheeffectsWhenwillitbeoverWhichcompaniesandtechnologieswillemergeandwhowillcomeoutaheadOverthepastseveralmonths,ajointteamofanalystsfromMcKinseyandGoldmanSachshaveexaminedthesequestionstogaincontextandperspectiveonthecurrentcommunicationsinfrastructureslowdownandlifebeyondforequipment,component,andOperationalSupportSystems(OSS)vendorsThisteamarrivedatthefollowingconclusionsandstrategiesforsuccessKeyConclusionsThecurrentequipmentindustryslowdownhasnotbeencausedbyafalloffinactualbandwidthdemand(versusebullientdemandforecasts)fromenterprisesandotherendusers,butratherbysupplysidefactorssuchasoverbuildingbycarriers,overmanufacturingbyvendors,andovercapitalizationbyfinancialmarkets,coupledwithunrealisticmarketexpectationsWeexpectsalesofequipmenttobeimpactedforonetotwoyearsinlonghaulandlessthansixmonthsinmetrotransportmarkets,drivenprimarilybythetimeitwilltaketoabsorbinstalledovercapacityInthattime,excessinventoriesshouldbeconsumedanddistressedassetsredeployedComponentvendorsshouldseeapickupapproximatelythreemonthsearlierbecauseoftheorderingleadtimestypicallyinvolved,partiallyoffsetbyexcessinventoriesatsystemsvendorsThetimenecessarytoabsorbexcessbandwidthcapacitydependsonactualdemandgrowthandonthenetworkoverheadthatisrequiredtomeetdemandAccordingtoourconversationswithnetworkengineers,thetotaloverheadfactordesignedintonetworkscouldrangefromtotimesaveragebandwidthdemandtoday,givenexistingnetworkarchitectures,Internetprotocol(IP)trafficcharacteristics,andcarrierbuildstrategiesAsdatatrafficbecomesagreaterportionoftheoverallmix,overheadrequirementsshouldincreaseslightly,totimesaveragebandwidthdemandBeyondthecurrentslowdown,equipment,component,andOSSvendorswillneedtohelpcarrierssatisfydemandgrowthwhilemaintainingprofitabilitybydeliveringsolutionsthatreduceperbitcostsbyperyearCapitalexpenditure(capex)reductionsalonewillnotsuffice,sonewsolutionsmustreduceoperatingexpense(opex)andenablenewrevenuegeneratingIPservicesSuccessfulequipmentandcomponentvendorscanhelpcarriersmeettheseprofitabilitychallengesbydeliveringtransitionalproductsthatsupportlegacyservicesandarchitectures,anddelivermostofthereducedcostandcomplexitybenefitsoffullnextgenerationproductsAccordingtoournetworkmodel,thesetransitionalnetworkimplementationsshouldresultinsavingsofincapexperbitandaboutinopexperbitovercurrentlegacynetworkimplementationsOSSsoftwareproviderswillplayacriticalandcomplementaryrolebydeliveringproductsthatreduceoperatingcosts,supportnextgenerationnetworkarchitectures,andenablenewvalueaddedIPservicesBasedonourconversationswithlargecarriersandsystemsintegrators,neartermsoftwarefixesalonecouldreduceperbitopexbyuptoandincreaserevenuesbyuptoGiventhatmanynonincumbentcarriershaveexitedthebusinessorarestruggling,vendorswillneedtoaltertheirproductdesignsandsalesapproachestoaccommodatethelongersalescyclesandmorerigorouscertificationprocessesofincumbentsandtheirfocusontotalcostofownershipTechnologyvendorswillneedtoworktogetherandwithstandardsbodiestopromoteinteroperability,giventheemergingneedforendtoendserviceprovisioning,signaling,convergentbilling,andintegratednetworkmanagementThiswillprovetobeadifficultchallengefortheindustryandmaywellnothappen,givencompetitiveforcesaswellastheoveralldifficultyandcomplexityofstandardsdefinitionandcomplianceIndustryconsolidationappearsinevitableThedemiseofcarriersthatfailtoreachprofitability,andlackoffundingfornewserviceproviders,willlikelyleadtofewer,largerleadingequipmentproviders,supportedbyahandfulofkeycomponentplayersOSSvendorconsolidationwilllikelybedrivenbyserviceproviders’desiretodealwithfewervendorsthatofferbroadersolutions,ratherthanmanyvendorswithpointsolutionsthataddressindividualOSSareasAdditionaldownsideriskssuchasaprolongedeconomicdownturnordestructivecompetitorbehaviorposethegreatestrisktoourperspectivesMissedupsideopportunitiesarelesslikelyStrategiesforSuccessWiththeaboveconclusionsinmind,wecameupwiththefollowingstrategiesforsuccessforequipmentvendors,componentvendors,andOSScompaniesWebelievethesekeysuccessfactorswillformthebasisofcompetitionoverthenextthreetofiveyearsandwillrequiresignificantchangesinmindsetandcompetitivestrategySystemVendorsFocusonprovidinghybridsystemsthatreducetotalcostofownershipforcarriersandenablenew,valueaddedservices,ratherthanpurelyinnovativeproductsthathavealowupfrontcostPushforearlytrialandsuccessfuldeploymentwithleadingserviceprovidersthatwillsurvivethecurrentshakeoutSupportdevelopmentofindustrystandardsandensurethatproductscanbeeasilyintegratedDevelopsystemsthatfurtherreducethedemandtocapacityoverheadfactorsForge(multiple)partnershipswithOSSvendorsandsystemsintegratorsFacilitatevalueaddedandintegrationservicesforcustomers(eg,networkdesignandplanning)ComponentVendorsFocusRDinvestmentonspecialtycomponentsanddisruptivetechnologiesthatcanimprovepriceperformancebytimesImprovemanufacturingyields,throughput,andpackagingtoreducecostsperyearFocusonproductinnovationsthat(directlyorindirectly)helpreducetotalcostofownershipforserviceprovidersDevelopmoreintegratedmodulesandsubsystemsOSSVendorsSupportthedevelopmentandadoptionofindustrystandardsandtrulyopenapplicationprogramminginterfaces(API)Expandproductportfolioshorizontallyacrossnetworkmanagementfunctionsandselectively“northbound”intotheservicemanagementlayerCreateintegratedsuitesofIPOSSproductsTakeadvantageofselectedlegacysystemopportunitiesPartnerwithmultipleequipmentvendorstocreateintegratedandinteroperablenetworkmanagementplatformsAllycloselywithmultiplesystemsintegrators(SIs)INTRODUCTIONANDOVERVIEWEvenafterthedotcomcrash,telecommarkets,companies,andcommentatorscontinuedtorideawaveofmutuallyreinforcingeuphoriaValuationsskyrocketed,participantsacrossthevaluechainprospered,andcommentatorstalkedexcitedlyabouttheNewEconomyandtheinsatiabledemandforbandwidthThedeepandsuddendeclineinthetelecommarketsafterthesummerofcaughtmanyindustryparticipantsbysurpriseBothcarriersandinfrastructurecompanieshavebeenhithardbytheslowdownThecommentatorshaverapidlyadapted,nowpredictinggloomCapitalmarketsfueledgrowth,thenabruptlydeclinedInAugust,telecomequipmentandserviceproviderstockswereneartheiralltimehighsJDSUniphase'smarketcapwasstillgreaterthan$billionNortel,freshfromseveralmultibilliondollaracquisitions,hadamarketcapof$billionandafullorderbookNewentrantslikeCorvisandSycamorewerevaluedinthetensofbillionsofdollars,despitehavingonlyahandfulofcustomersAcquisitionswereoccurringatafeverishpaceandathighvaluations,suchasLucent's$billionacquisitionofChromatisinandCisco's$billionacquisitionofCerentinStartupswerevaluedathighmultiplesoffuturerevenues,evenintheabsenceofcustomersorcompletedproductsAnunprecedentedflowofventurecapitalpouredintostartupcompaniesinallareasofcommunicationstechnology,particularlyopticalnetworking,packetvoice,andwirelessMetrotechnologybecamethenewhotgrowtharea,introducingcompaniessuchasYipes,LookingGlass,andTelseonEventheincumbentlocalexchangecarriers(ILECs)werevaluedatalltimehighs,onthepromiseofbroadbandaccessandpotentialderegulatedentryintolongdistanceserviceInvestors�newandexperiencedalike�followedthemomentum,pouringmoneyintotelecomstocksandfunds,forfearofbeingleftbehindintheeagerstampedetoeachnewtechnologyorbusinessideaTheeuphoriawaspervasive,evenafterthedotcomcrashbegantoaffectthebroadertechnologymarketsSincethesummerof,optimismhasturnedtogloomServiceproviderandcommunicationstechnologycompanyvaluationsareuniformlyandsignificantlybelowtheirhighs,withthetoptenshowingalossofabout$trillionofequityvalueCiscoalonehasseenitsmarketcapitalizationdeclinebymorethan$billionThestocksoflargesystemsvendors,likeLucentandNortel,andmajorcomponentcompanies,likeCorningandJDSUniphase,aredownIPOsuccesseslikeCorvisandAvanexhaveseentheirmarketcapitalizationsdeclinemorethanSeveralformertelecomserviceproviderhighflierssuchasNorthpoint,PSINet,networks,Winstar,andAeriehaverecentlydeclaredbankruptcy,withotherspotentiallyfollowingthesamecourseDebtandequitymarketshaveeffectivelyshutdown,withthenumberofofferingsinthefirstquarterofdownand,respectively,fromlastyearThefaceamountofoutstandingtelecomdebtexceeds$billion,withmuchofitvaluedatpenniesonthedollarInlessthanayear,thetelecombubblehasburstinanunprecedentedfashionTelecomCompaniesFollowedaLandRushMentalityLastyear'sactivitybyserviceproviders,systemshouses,andcomponentmanufacturerswasdrivenbya“landrush”mentalityCarrierswerelayingconduitandfibertomeetwhatseemedlikeunlimiteddemandEachnewbuildattemptedtoleapfrogthecompetitionbylayingmoremiles,installingfatterconduitsandmorefibers,andrushingtoadaptthefastest,densest,andmostinnovativeopticaltransportandswitchingtechnologyavailableServiceprovidersworriedaboutbottleneckseverywhereinthebackbone,inthemetro,andinlastmileaccessCarriercapex(forourindexofserviceproviders)grewatacompoundedannualgrowthrate(CAGR)betweenandEverycarrierappearedtobesimultaneouslyevaluatingdozensofnewcompetingtechnologiesfromlargeandsmallvendorsSystemsvendorsannouncedinnovationsatbreakneckspeed,movingforexamplefromchanneldensewavedivisionmultiplexing(DWDM)atgigabitspersecond(Gbps)inthelatterhalfofthestonewlyannouncedsystemswithchannelsatGbps�animprovementofalmostathousandfoldinhalfadozenyearsComponentcompaniescouldnotmanufacturetheirgoodsfastenoughtosatisfysystemsvendordemand,placingevenmajorcustomerson“allocation,”aformofrationingInnovationpouredoutofbothcorporateanduniversityRDorganizations,withmanyoftheindustry’sbestengineersabandoningsecurecareerstofoundnewtechnologybasedtelecomstartupsEngineeringtalentbecamethescarceresourceoftheday,andforashortperiodoftime,labormarketswerealmostemployedThepervasiveattitudewas“builditandtheywillcome”forserviceproviders,“announceitandtheywillbuy”forequipmentcompanies,and“writethebusinessplanandtheywillfund”forstartupsToday,shakenbythedownturn,telecomcompaniesaremuchmoresoberCapitalspendingbycarriersdroppedbetweenthefourthquarterofandthefirstquarterofCarriershavemovedfromannouncingambitiousnewbuildstoimprovingtheutilizationofexistingassetsNewequipmentcompaniesarehavingtroubleobtainingcarrierevaluations,letalonesalesCarriersarealreadytalkingaboutdelayingthedeploymentofnextgenerationtechnologiessuchasOC(Gbps)Theslowdowninspendinghasrippledthroughthesupplychain,resultinginbloatedequipmentandcomponentinventoriesForexample,daysofinventoryonhandforsystemsvendorshasincreasedalmostCiscorecentlywroteoff$billionininventoryNortelannouncedastaggering$billionmarkdownofovervaluedacquisitionsandexcessinventoryJDSUniphasewroteoffarecord$billioningoodwillStartupsrewrotebusinessplanstoconservecashfortwoyearsormoreinattemptstooutlastthedownturnScarcityoftalenthasturnedtolayoffs,withCisco,Nortel,Lucent,JDSUniphase,andmanyothersannouncingsubstantialdownsizingNow,costcuttingandcashpreservationarepredominatethemesascompaniesrepositionthemselvesTelecomMarketSentimentTurnsBearishTheworldofmarketcommentatorshassimilarlydonearapidaboutfaceLastyear,itwasacceptedwisdomthatInternettrafficwasdoublingeveryfourtosixmonthsUUNetindicatedthattrafficonitsnetworkdoubledeverytodaysNewlawsofthephotonweredeclared,puttingMooretoshameOpticaltechnology,theNewEconomyparadigm,thedotcomboom,newbandwidthhungryapplicationslikemultimediaandpeertopeer,andhighlyelasticbandwidthdemandwereallconspiringtodriveaspiralofgrowth,leadingtonearinfinitebandwidthatnearzeropriceNewparadigmsweredeclared,andnovelvaluationmodelswereproposedTheraretelecombearwasunwelcomeAnalogiestoothergreatboomperiodswerewidelycitedtoreassurethemarketsandsizetheopportunityExpertsclaimedthatthiswasjustthedawningofanewtelecomandbandwidthrevolution�thephotonicanalogofthevacuumtubeThelandgrabofthegreatbackbonefiberbuildswascomparedtotheexpansionoftherailroadsacenturyandahalfearlierthatopeneduptheWesttodevelopmentandcommerceClaimswerereminiscentoftheearlydaysofnuclearenergy,whenadvocatespredictedelectricalpowertoocheaptometerToday,thebullshaveretreated,whilethebearshavecometotheforefrontSlowingbandwidthdemandgrowthisthenewmantraThefearofbandwidthbottleneckshaschangedtotalkofafiber(andcapacity)glutRecentmarketcommentaryassertedthatasmuchasofbackbonefibermightbedarkSomefretthatcompaniesacrossthetelecomvaluechainmaystillbesignificantlyovervaluedThemetaphorsinturnhavecomefullcircleOUROBJECTIVESANDAPPROACHOurFundamentalQuestionsWiththisindustrycontextinmind,ourobjectivewastoaddressthefollowingfundamentalquestions:Whatisdrivingthecurrentslowdownforequipmentplayers,howlongwillthesefactorslast,andhowwilltheyresolvethemselves�ChapterBeyondthecurrentslowdown,whatissueswillequipmentandOSSprovidersneedtoaddresstohelptheirserviceprovidercustomerssupportandincreasetrafficandrevenuegrowth�ChapterWhatarethekeyemergingtrendsandtechnologiesinnetworkevolution,andhowwillcarriers’renewedemphasisonprofitabilityaffecttheirdeployment�ChapterWhatarethemajor(andoftenunappreciated)OSSchallengesimpedingnetworkevolution,andconversely,howcancarriers’OSSinvestmentsbestbetargetedtopushdowncostsanddrivenewrevenuestoday�ChapterHowwillthetelecomequipmentandsoft

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030麦肯锡-美国通讯行业研究报告(英)

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