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首页 156科尔尼--中远集团做的_物流行业及发展趋势研究报告

156科尔尼--中远集团做的_物流行业及发展趋势研究报告.ppt

156科尔尼--中远集团做的_物流行业及发展趋势研究报告

gzgdlyj
2009-07-24 0人阅读 举报 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《156科尔尼--中远集团做的_物流行业及发展趋势研究报告ppt》,可适用于行业分析领域

COSCOIPOSUPPORTMATERIALSJuly,LogisticsServicesIndustryEnvironmentTrendAnalysisCOSCOCommentsandATKearneyRemarksThecontentsofthisdocumentwerepreparedbyATKearneyandmaynotbeused,alteredordisclosedtootherparties,withoutthewrittenpermissionofATKearneyTheinformationcontainedinthisdocumenthasbeenobtainedfromexternalsourceswhichATKearneybelievesarereliableHowever,ATKearneycanmakenorepresentationastotheaccuracyorcompletenessoftheinformationorprojectionsderivedtherefromTableofContentsTableofContentsExecutiveSummaryMarketSizeGrowthGlobalChinaServiceDemandGlobalTrendsChinaTrendsCompetitiveEnvironmentGlobalChinaRegulatoryEnvironmentInformationTechnologyAppendixExecutiveSummaryExecutiveSummaryATKearney’sdefinitionofthelogisticsservicesindustryATKearney’sdefinitionofthelogisticsservicesindustryStructuringandmanaging,onbehalfofcargoowners,solutionsinvolvingsomecombinationofpartsofthesupplychain(ietransportation,warehousing,(de)consolidation,etc)Thelogisticsserviceindustryrepresentatremendousgrowthopportunity,bothgloballyandinChinaThelogisticsserviceindustryrepresentatremendousgrowthopportunity,bothgloballyandinChinaMarketCharacteristicConclusionCustomersareincreasinglydemandinghighvaluelogisticsservicesolutions,requiringglobalreachandadvancedsupplychainmanagementcapabilitiesIncreasingdemandforglobalreachandcapabilitiesfuelsconsolidationaslargefullserviceprovidersarepositioningthemselvesforsuccessChina’sentryintoWTOisexpectedtohavetwomainimplicationsthelogisticsmarketwillgrowrapidly,andcompetitiveintensitywilldramaticallyincreaseStrongITcapabilitiesisbecomingacorecapabilityoflogisticsservicesprovidersandiscriticaltobuildingalogisticsservicesbusinessMarketSizeGrowthServiceDemandCompetitiveEnvironmentRegulatoryEnvironmentInformationTechnologySource:ATKearneyThegloballogisticsservicesmarketreachedanestimatedUS$BninTheChinamarketisstillsmallatUS$Bn,butwillbegrowingrapidlyatCAGRoverthenextfiveyearsTheChinalogisticsindustrywillbeshapedbyChina’sentryintotheWTOandthesubsequentopeningofthemarkettoforeigncompetitionTheChinalogisticsindustrywillbeshapedbyChina’sentryintotheWTOandthesubsequentopeningofthemarkettoforeigncompetitionIndustryScenarioRapidincreaseinMAactivitiesKeyalliancesformedwithinthenextyearsRapidexpansionofglobalplayersofferingsophisticatedendtoendsolution,includinglogistics,transportationandITImplementationofecommerceinitiativesandincreasingdependenceonITnetworkMergers,AcquisitionsandAlliancesGlobalCompetitorsTechnologyThelogisticsmarketwillgrowrapidlyCompetitiveintensitywilldramaticallyincreaseWTOEntrySource:ATKearneyMarketSizeGrowthThegloballogisticsservicesmarketreachedanestimatedUS$BninThegloballogisticsservicesmarketreachedanestimatedUS$BninThegloballogisticsoutsourcingmarketisestimatedtoUS$BninThetransportationandrelatedexpendituresmarketreachedanestimatedUS$Trillionin,andisexpectedtogrowatanannualrateofoverthenextyearsTheAsianlogisticsoutsourcingmarketisestimatedtoreachUS$BninandisexpectedtogrowatCAGRoverthenextfiveyearsThegreatestopportunitiesforoutsourcingareintransport,warehousing,andtransportmanagementThegrowthofthegloballogisticsservicesindustryismainlydrivenbyshippers’propensitytooutsourcelogisticsservicesandorganictransportationmarketgrowthCustomerelectronics,automotiveandapparelrepresentthemostattractiveopportunitiesforlogisticsservicesinChinaTheChinamarketisstillsmallatUS$Bn,butwillbegrowingrapidlyatCAGRoverthenextfiveyearsTheChinamarketisstillsmallatUS$Bn,butwillbegrowingrapidlyatCAGRoverthenextfiveyearsTheChinalogisticsservicesmarketisstillsmallatUS$Bn,butwillbegrowingrapidlyoverthenextyearsThelogisticsservicesindustryisstillatanearlystageofevolutioninChinaThetransportationandrelatedexpendituresareproportionatelyhigherinChinathaninmostdevelopedcountriesandNIEsindicatingamajorimprovementopportunityInCoastalChina,demandforlogisticsservicesisexpectedtobestronginGuangdongandShanghaiInInlandChina,thelargestdemandpotentialisinSichuanandtheHubeiYangtzeriverregionGrowthinthelogisticsservicesindustryinChinawillmainlybedrivenbycontinuedmacroeconomicgrowthandincreasedpropensitytooutsourcelogisticsFavorablemacroeconomicoutlookPublicpolicyandspendingIncreasinginterestinoutsourcingforlogisticsneedsGrowingITandEbusinessMarketSizeGrowthGlobalThegloballogisticsoutsourcingmarketisestimatedtoUS$BninThegloballogisticsoutsourcingmarketisestimatedtoUS$BninSource:Chinainfobank,CSFB,ATKearneyGlobalTransportationandLogisticsMarketSize()Transportationandrelatedactivitieshandledbymanufacturers,wholesalers,retailersthemselves(egprivatefleet,privatewarehousing)Discretesetsoftransportationandrelatedservicesoutsourcedbymanufacturers,wholesalers,retailers(egpublicwarehousingetc)Combinationof“transportationandrelatedservices”provisionedbyrdpartylogisticsserviceprovidersUS$,BnOutsourcedUS$BnGlobaltransportationandrelatedexpendituresGlobaloutsourcedtransportationandrelatedservicesGloballogisticsoutsourcingmarketThetransportationandrelatedexpendituresmarketreachedanestimatedUS$Trillionin,andisexpectedtogrowatanannualrateofoverthenextyearsThetransportationandrelatedexpendituresmarketreachedanestimatedUS$Trillionin,andisexpectedtogrowatanannualrateofoverthenextyearsUS$BnNote:()AsiaincludesJapan,HongKong,Korea,SingaporeandTaiwanSource:BowersoxandCalantoneCSFBATKearneyAnalysisTransportationandRelatedExpendituresbyRegion()TransportationandRelatedExpendituresbyFunction()US$BnTotal=US$,BnOthers:Asia():Europe:NorthAmerica:,,,Warehousing$BnTransport$,BnOthers$BnShipperRelated$BnInventory$,BnAdmin$BnCAGRTheAsianlogisticsoutsourcingmarketisestimatedtoreachUS$BninandisexpectedtogrowatCAGRoverthenextfiveyearsTheAsianlogisticsoutsourcingmarketisestimatedtoreachUS$BninandisexpectedtogrowatCAGRoverthenextfiveyearsNote:AsiaincludesChina,Japan,HonkKong,Korea,SingaporeandTaiwanSource:BowersoxandCalantoneCSFBATKearneyAnalysisLogisticsOutsourcingMarketinAsiaGrossRevenue(US$Bn)CAGR()=CAGR()=Thegreatestopportunitiesforoutsourcingareintransport,warehousing,andtransportmanagementThegreatestopportunitiesforoutsourcingareintransport,warehousing,andtransportmanagementTransportWarehousingTransportManagementITSupplementaryLogisticServicesPurchaseOrderManagementLogisticsManagementofrespondentsoutsourcingofrespondentsplanedoutsourcingOutsourcingbyFunctionResourcerequirementsComplexityNote:ThepercentagemaynotadduptoduetoroundingSource:BasedonseveralATKearneystudies,including:Worldwidestudycomprisingparticipants(automotive,electronics,retail,chemicals)Europeanstudycomprisingparticipants(retail,foodbeverage,commodities,machinery,automotive,electronicshightech)Thegrowthofthegloballogisticsservicesindustryismainlydrivenbyshippers’propensitytooutsourcelogisticsservicesandorganictransportationmarketgrowthThegrowthofthegloballogisticsservicesindustryismainlydrivenbyshippers’propensitytooutsourcelogisticsservicesandorganictransportationmarketgrowthOutsourcingofnoncorebusinessactivitiesOrganicgrowthoftransportationmarketsIncreasedcomplexityofglobalsupplychainsRecognitionbymanyshippersthatsupplychainstrategymaybeakeycompetitiveadvantageWillingnesstooutsourcewhenlogisticsnotseenascorecompetencyDevelopmentofsuperiorlogisticscapabilitybyafewPLsGrowthindemandfortransportationservicesexpandswithinternationaltradegrowthGlobalizationofmanyindustriesmeansgoodsneedtomoveoverlongerdistancesatfasterspeedswithhigherreliabilityGrowthinLogisticsServicesSource:UBSWarburg,IDCGrowthDriversDetailsConsumerelectronics,automotiveandapparelrepresentthemostattractiveopportunitiesforlogisticsservicesinChinaConsumerelectronics,automotiveandapparelrepresentthemostattractiveopportunitiesforlogisticsservicesinChinaNote:SizeofcirclerelativetosegmentsizeinAnalysisisindicativeonlySource:ATKearneyfieldinterviewsandresearchHighLowGrowth()RemarksIndustryLowHighConsumerElectronicsApparelAutomotiveOutsourcingPropensityTobacco,LiquorPrimaryGoodsOpportunityAssessmentbyIndustryChemicalsMaterialsFurnitureMachineryAddmarketandtrendsanalysisbyindustryMarketSizeGrowthChinaTheChinalogisticsservicesmarketisstillsmallatUS$Bn,butwillbegrowingrapidlyoverthenextyearsTheChinalogisticsservicesmarketisstillsmallatUS$Bn,butwillbegrowingrapidlyoverthenextyearsLogisticsOutsourcingMarketGrossRevenue(,US$Bn)Note:AsiaincludesChina,Japan,HongKong,SingaporeandTaiwanSource:BowersoxandCalantoneCSFBATKearneyEstimatesCAGR=ChinaLogisticsServiceMarket(US$,Bn)ThelogisticsservicesindustryisstillatanearlystageofevolutioninChinaThelogisticsservicesindustryisstillatanearlystageofevolutioninChinaCharacteristicsEmergingdemandforoutsourcedlogisticsservicesLowvalueaddedservicessuchastransportandwarehousingarethemajortypeofservicesoutsourcedTraditionalinhousebehaviourbeingimpactedFastgrowthoflogisticsuserbaseandhigherrequirementforbroaderservicesLargenumberofservicesproviderscompetingforcustomersandhumanresourcesMosthighvalueaddedservicesarefreeandprovidedassellingpointsLogisticsoutsourcingbecomescommonpracticeandanimportantleverforcompetitionConsolidatedservicemarketwithafewestablishedmarketleadersLogisticspenetrateinsupplychainandreplacetraditionalbusinessmodelsGloballogisticsintegratorsprovideonestopsolutionworldwideSpecializationandclosecooperationamonggloballogisticsserviceprovidersOptimizedallocationandintegrationofresourcesalongthesupplychainStageEmergenceGrowthPenetrationGlobalizationWorldLeading(US)ChinaTodaySource:ATKearneyWarehousingandDistributionTruckingRailFreightAlthoughHeavilyUsed,RailwayFreightHasLongTransitTimesandServiceReliabilityIsPoorRailwayContainersAreNotCompatibleWithShippingCompanyContainersAirlineCustomsBrokerageCourierLimitedPresenceofForeignFirmsAsJVEGDHLSinotransRegionalSegregationinOperationLogisticsCenterandFreightForwardingShippingThedomesticwarehousingmarketiscurrentlysmallandoversuppliedwithbasicwarehousesprovidingvirtuallynovalueaddedservicesSomeconsolidationjuststartedamongthelargewarehousingcompaniesRivertransportationhasdeclinedMostvesselsarecharacterizedbylowspeedandhighenergycostsTruckingcompaniesareonlyallowedtooperateinrestrictedregionsGovernmenthasestablishedFreeTradeZonesandsomelogisticscentersaresetupthereInlandtransportationishandledbydomesticfreightforwarderwhoisusuallysubcontractedbytheinternationalfreightforwarderSevendomesticairlinesdominateregionaloperationsDesignatedforeigncarriersaregivenamaximumentitlementoftonnesperweekManycustomsclearingbrokeragefirmsandconsiderableconfusionaboutrolesCustomsclearingprocedurestookatleast½daypreviouslybutexpectedtobeshortenedtohourThelogisticsservicesindustryisstillatanearlystageofevolutioninChina(continued)Source:ATKearneyAnalysisTransportationandrelatedexpendituresareproportionatelyhigherinChinathaninmostdevelopedcountriesandNIEs–indicatingamajorimprovementopportunityTransportationandrelatedexpendituresareproportionatelyhigherinChinathaninmostdevelopedcountriesandNIEs–indicatingamajorimprovementopportunityTotalTransportationandRelatedExpendituresandofGDP()Note:()VAS:Valueaddedservices()Includingpackaging,admin,informationservices,ectSource:BowersoxandCalantone,CSFB,IMFstudyChinainfobankATKearneyAnalysisUS$BnChinaTransportationandRelatedExpendituresBreakdownbyFunction()Total=US$BnUS$Bn()()InCoastalChina,demandforlogisticsservicesisexpectedtobestronginGuangdongandShanghaiInCoastalChina,demandforlogisticsservicesisexpectedtobestronginGuangdongandShanghaiDemandGrowthHighLowHebei,Beijing,TianjinBeijingistheNoaircargocenterinChinaInaddition,Beijing’shitechindustry,whichneedsalotofairtransportation,isdevelopingveryfastOverofthevolumethroughTianjinportareagriculturalproducts,furniture,metalhardwareandrawmaterials,allbeinglowvalueproductsInaddition,mostshippersareinpoorfinancialconditionsandareverypricesensitiveShandong(Qingdao)Qingdaohasseveralfamouslocalcompanies,suchasHaier,HiSense,AukmaandQingdaoBeerTheyaremorequalityorientedandlesspricesensitiveFrozenproductsaccountforofthevolumeQualityrequirementsforfrozenproductsareveryhighintermsoftimingandhandlingcareHence,frozenproductsshipperstendtobelesspricesensitiveandmorequalityconcernedFootwearandgarmentsaccountforsignificantportionSomelargecustomerssuchasPaylessShoes(NocustomerofCOSCOinvolume)requiresaccurateshippingtimeandfullrangeofsophisticatedPLservicesfromPOmanagement,tradeconsultingtospacebooking,warehousingandtransportationProvinceLogisticsDemand–SelectedProvincesinCoastalChinaGuangdongDemandSizeRemarksMajorexportsareprocessingoflowervalueaddedproductsnospecialrequirementforlogisticsqualityRoadtransportationisconvenient,oftencontainerizedinfactorytoreducecostlessneedforwarehousingconsolidationElectronicsindustryisboominginDongguan,whichhassomeleadingcompanieslikeHuaweipotentiallargeprofitablecustomersStrongWeakShanghai(Jiangsu,Zhejiang)ShanghaiisthefastgrowingeconomicfinancialcenterinChina,whichhassomemajorMNCssuchasSGM,Acer,Philips,etcTheyarematuredcustomersoflogisticsservicesandlesspricesensitiveOntheotherhand,togetthedealsfromthemusuallyneedstoinvolvehighlevelnegociationLargecompaniesinShanghaiandnearbyareasaremainlyJVsofautomobileandconsumerelectronicsindustry,whichhavehighproductvalueandlowerpricesensitivitySource:ATKearneyfieldinterviewsandanalysisIninlandChina,thelargestdemandpotentialisinSichuanandtheHubeiYangtzeriverregionIninlandChina,thelargestdemandpotentialisinSichuanandtheHubeiYangtzeriverregionDemandSizeSichuan(Chengdu)HavetherdlargestdistributioncenterinChina,thelargestpopulation,andimportantheavyindustrybaseThelogisticsindustrytherehasalreadyattractedinterestofforeignlargeshipperslikeIkeaandinvestorsincludingHutchisonWhampoaLocatedinmountainareas,roadtransportinfrastructureisinconvenient,sohighlyrelyingonrailtransportChongqingAgriculturalproducts,metalproductsandmotorcycles,whichtotallyaccountforoveroftheexportvolume,arealllowvalueproducts,pricesensitiveandhaveflatgrowthUnderdevelopedinfrastructure,esproadandrailtransportationhavelimitedforeigninvestmentsinthisregionCargoesusuallytransportedbybarges,whichisthecheapestmodeProvinceLogisticsDemand–SelectedProvincesinInlandChinaYunnanDemandGrowthRemarksMostimportantexportindustryistobacco,whichhashighprofitmargin,highqualityrequirementforlogisticsservices,andnotverypricesensitiveExportsforwood,woodenmaterialsandfurniture,whichaccountedforoverofexportvolumebefore,arelargelyreducedduetonewlyimposedgovernmentsanctiononcuttingtreesHighLowStrongWeakSource:ATKearneyfieldinterviewsandanalysisHubei,YangtzeRiverRegionExportsarelowvalueproductsincludingtobacco,cotton,chemicalsandsteelmaterialsManyimportsarematerialforJVs(egCitreonandDongfengCummins),ofwhichdecisionsareusuallymadeoverseasMarketisveryfragmentedandshippersgenerallyhavesmallscalevolumeNowarehousespilingcenterswithmoderncontainerhandlingcapacityandadvancedITstructureareavailable,canbeapotentialdevelopmentareaGrowthinthelogisticsservicesindustryinChinawillmainlybedrivenbycontinuedmacroeconomicgrowthandincreasedpropensitytooutsourcelogisticsGrowthDriverImplicationTheChineseeconomyisexpectedtogrowatCAGRoverthenextfiveyearsIncreasedinternationalanddomestictradewilldrivedemandforlogisticsservicesPublicpolicyandspendingsupportsimprovementsinChina’slogisticsinfrastructure,providingopportunitiesforfurtherexpansionoflogisticsserviceprovidersCapableforeignserviceprovidersarelimitedinbusinessscopebyregulation,andtheirfullentryafterWTOwilldrivetheindustrytowardinternationalbestpracticesThereisincreasinginterestamongChinabasedenterprisesinoutsourcingforlogisticsservicesOverseasbusinessesareextendingtheirsupplychainsdeeperintoChinaThefastgrowingmarketinonlineBBtransactionsprovidesanadditionalmarketsegmentforlogisticsservicesFavorableGrowthOutlookfortheChinaLogisticsServicesIndustryFavorableMacroEconomicOutlookPublicPolicyandSpendingIncreasingInterestinOutsourcingforLogisticsNeedsGrowingITandEBusinessSource:ATKearneyAnalysisTheChineseeconomyisexpectedtogrowatCAGRoverthenextfiveyearsTheChineseeconomyisexpectedtogrowatCAGRoverthenextfiveyearsSource:Chinainfobank,ATKearneyAnalysisProjectionofChina’sGDPGrowthandStructure(RMB,Bn)ContinuousgrowthinGDPindicatesarobustandfastgrowingmacroeconomy,providingopportunitiesforsophisticatedlogisticsserviceprovidersTheeconomicstructurewillbecontinuouslyoptimizedandupgradedLogisticsisdirectlycorrelatedwiththemanufacturingindustry,thereforegrowthofsecondaryindustrieswillleadtothegrowthoflogisticsservicesImprovedservicesindustrieswillalsohaveapositiveimpactonthelogisticssectorImprovedsupportiveservicessuchaslegal,accounting,etcImprovedtelecommunicationcapabilitiesRemarksSecondary:Tertiary:CAGR()Total:Primary:,,FavorableMacroEconomicOutlookDemandforlogisticsservicescomesfrombothinternationalanddomestictradeDemandforlogisticsservicescomesfrombothinternationalanddomestictradeSource:HongKongTradeDevelopmentCouncilResearchChinainfobankDemandforLogi

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156科尔尼--中远集团做的_物流行业及发展趋势研究报告

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