经济学家翻译

网站：http://www.ecosky.cn/post/20090718847.html [2009.07.16]No way to start out in life何去何从 Rising youth unemployment 青年失业人数不断攀升 No way to start out in life 何去何从 Jul 16th 2009 From The Economist print edition The plight of the young jobless calls into question Labour’s record 青年失业人数攀升 人才数据遭到质疑 Report Digital INCLUDEPICTURE "http://media.economist.com/images/20090718/2909BR6.jpg" \* MERGEFORMATINET THE human cost of the recession is felt most keenly by the unemployed. That cost, already high and rising, is steepest of all for young people who cannot find work. They are emerging as the prime victims of the slump. 失业人口最能体会到此次经济危机带来的代价。失业人口数据高居不下并且还在继续攀升，其中以无业青年为最。他们逐渐成了此次危机最大的受害者。 The overall unemployment rate rose to 7.6% of the labour force during the three months to May, according to official figures published on July 15th. A year earlier it stood at just 5.2%. The total number of jobless is now close to 2.4m after increasing by a record 281,000 over the previous quarter, the three months to February. 7月15日公布的官方数据显示，3月至5月，英国失业人数占劳动力的7.6%，而去年同期这个数字仅为5.2%。前一季度，即08年12月到09年2月失业人数创历史新高，上升了28.1万，现在失业人口总数已经接近240万。 This dramatic resurgence of unemployment is unwinding the clock. The jobless rate is now the highest since the end of 1996, six months before Labour won power. Even more worrying, the rate of unemployment among young people aged 18-24 has jumped from 11.9% to 17.3% over the past year. Not since 1993, in the aftermath of the previous and less savage recession, has it been higher (see chart). Indeed, the total number of unemployed youngsters aged 16-24 has now reached 928,000, up by 108,000 since the previous quarter ending in February. If it carries on rising at this pace there will be more than a million jobless young people later this year. 失业率大幅反弹使得先前的努力付诸东流。现在失业率为1996年末（半年后工党当权）以来的最高点。更糟的是，过去一年，18到24岁的青年失业人数从 11.9%上升到了17.3%。只有93年的失业率略高于当前的数字（见上表），而当前的危机要比93年前的那场危机更为严峻。的确，3月以来，16到 24岁的青年失业人数上升了10.8万，现在失业青年总数已高达92.8万。若照此态势发展下去，今年下半年青年失业人口将超过100万。 Young people typically find it hard to get established in the labour market because of their lack of experience, which makes them especially vulnerable in downturns. But even before the recession Britain’s youngsters had been faring worse than their counterparts elsewhere. Between 1998 and 2005, the jobless rate for 16-24-year-olds in Britain was lower than the average for the OECD, a club of mainly rich countries, but since then it has been higher. The unemployment gap between that age group and 25-54-year-olds widened from 2004 to 2007 in Britain while staying broadly the same across the OECD. 由于年轻人缺少社会经验，找工作尤为困难，这也使得他们成为衰退浪潮中尤为无助的人群。甚至在衰退之前，英国的青年人也比其他国家的同龄人更为担心就业问 题 快递公司问题件快递公司问题件货款处理关于圆的周长面积重点题型关于解方程组的题及答案关于南海问题 。98年到05年间，英国16到24岁青年失业率低于“富国俱乐部”经合组织国家的平均值，但05年后，其青年人口失业率则反超平均值。经合组织国家青 年失业人数（16-24岁）与青壮年失业人数（24-54岁）之间的差距无大变化，而在英国，04到07年间这两个人群的失业人口差距却有所扩大。 The timing of the deterioration points to two possible explanations. A commonly held view is that British youngsters have been displaced by the influx of youthful migrants from eastern Europe since 2004. But this is the “lump-of-labour” fallacy—that a job for a Polish cleaner means one fewer for a native worker. Research by Sara Lemos, an economist at Leicester University, and Jonathan Portes of the Department for Work and Pensions last year found that the wave of migration had not increased youth unemployment. 从青年就业情况恶化的时间来看，人们有两种猜测。普遍的看法之一，04起来自东欧的青年移民分占了英国年轻人的就业机会。但这好似“劳工总量固定”的谬 论，如“一个来自波兰的清洁工就相当于占了本地人民的一个工作岗位”云云。 去年莱斯特大学的经济学家Sara Lemos和英国就业与退休保障部的Jonathan Portes调查发现，并非移民浪潮导致了青年失业人数的增加。 A more likely explanation, though still disputed, is that the minimum wage was pushed up too much a few years ago. When it was introduced in April 1999, the main rate was set at £3.60 ($5.80) an hour, a fairly modest amount. There was a lower floor of £3 for 18-21-year-olds, because young workers’ chances in the labour market were recognised to be especially sensitive to pay. 另一种猜测尽管还在争论中，却更为合理，即几年前最低工资 标准 excel标准偏差excel标准偏差函数exl标准差函数国标检验抽样标准表免费下载红头文件格式标准下载 被提的过高。1999年四月最初设定最低工资为一小时3.6英镑（5.8美元），并不高。鉴于年轻人就业的概率，人们认为他们的工资是个敏感问题，18到21岁年轻人的最低工资仅为3英镑。 Since then, however, both rates have risen by 59% and outstripped average earnings, which have gone up by 45% in the past ten years. The increases were particularly big in the four years to 2006, adding to the suspicion that the minimum wage was implicated in the rising rate of youth unemployment over that period. The Low Pay Commission, the quango which sets the floor wage, contests this notion, but has been raising it at a more moderate pace in the past couple of years. 十年间，一般最低工资与青年最低工资都上涨了59%， 而平均收益仅上涨了45%。03到06年四年间，最低工资涨幅更大，人们更加相信这一点影响了当时青年人的失业率。制定最低工资标准的半官方机构底薪委员会为自己辩护的同时，还是在过去几年缓慢的提升了最低工资底线。 Where there is more general agreement is that the young people who are most vulnerable in the labour market are the low-skilled. Even when the economy was doing well in the middle of this decade, only 45% of children leaving school without a qualification such as five good GCSEs were employed a year later. Now relatively unskilled youngsters are bearing the brunt of the recession. Not only are young people more likely than older workers to be made redundant, but those with no or poor qualifications are much more likely to be sacked than graduates. 更普遍的看法是，没有能力的年轻人在就业市场中最为无助。即便在经济景气的05、06年，只有45%没有拿到英国中学普通毕业证等证书的学生在离校一年后能找到工作。就业市场优胜劣汰，较于职场老手，年轻人更容易下岗，而没有学历或学历低的人往往是首批被裁员的人选。 The government is trying to prevent a drift into long-term unemployment. Employers can now get a subsidy of £1,000 ($1,640) if they recruit someone who has been out of work for at least six months. And from the start of next year, any young person who has been jobless for a year or more will be guaranteed a job or training. 为避免失业率长期高居不下，政府为公司提供了专项补贴，公司每雇佣一名下岗半年以上的人员，就可获得1000英镑（1640美元）补助。明年起，任何一年或一年以上未找到工作的年轻人都会被安排就业或 培训 焊锡培训资料ppt免费下载焊接培训教程 ppt 下载特设培训下载班长管理培训下载培训时间表下载 。 But the surge in youth unemployment is doubly embarrassing for Labour. Getting young people off benefit and into work was one of the party’s five main pledges in the 1997 general election. The link between poor skills and joblessness also casts a harsh light on the government’s record in education. Despite big spending increases and reams of new initiatives, far too many children still leave school with poor exam grades, undermining their job prospects at the best of times. 但激增的青年人失业率令工党尤为尴尬。97年大选时，工党竞选的五大目标之一就是促进青年人就业并使其不再依赖于补助。没有技能就找不到工作，这一点也无 情的披露了英国在教育领域的失败。即便政府对教育加大了资金支持并启动了许多新计划，仍有大批学生由于成绩不过关而辍学，如此，纵使经济运行良好，他们的 就业前景也不容乐观。 Young people are not the only losers from the recession, of course. A report this week from PWC, an accountancy firm, pointed out that people approaching retirement have also suffered a big blow in the falling value of houses and equities. But the plight of the jobless young still arouses a particular concern that transcends politics, evoking talk of a lost generation. For one thing there are worries that crime may increase as a consequence. There is also concern that prolonged unemployment early in people’s working lives will leave them scarred in the long term. Youngsters who have been jobless for a year or more tend to do worse in the labour market for the rest of their lives. They deserve a better start. 当然，在这次危机中受到冲击的不仅仅是年轻人。据普华永道会计师事务所（PWC）本周报告显示，由于房价和股权贬值，即将退休的人员也受到了重创。而有关 失业青年的命运则引发了人们政策以外的关切，触发了有关“迷茫的一代”的讨论。一方面，有人担心青年失业率上升会导致犯罪率上升；另一方面，也有人担心年 轻人在适工年龄长期处于失业状态会给他们心理留下阴影。人们在年轻时若有一年或一年以上无业的经历，会影响其一生的职业表现。他们应该有个更好的开端。