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首页 (英文版)现代宏观经济学——起源、发展和现状

(英文版)现代宏观经济学——起源、发展和现状.pdf

(英文版)现代宏观经济学——起源、发展和现状

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2009-06-10 0人阅读 举报 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《(英文版)现代宏观经济学——起源、发展和现状pdf》,可适用于人文社科领域

ModernMacroeconomicsInlovingmemoryofBrian’sparents,JosephandMargaretSnowdon,andHoward’sfather,PhilipMVaneModernMacroeconomicsItsOrigins,DevelopmentandCurrentStateBrianSnowdonPrincipalLecturerinEconomicsintheNewcastleBusinessSchool,NorthumbriaUniversity,NewcastleuponTyne,UKHowardRVaneProfessorofEconomicsintheSchoolofAccounting,FinanceandEconomics,LiverpoolJohnMooresUniversity,Liverpool,UKEdwardElgarCheltenham,UK•Northampton,MA,USA©BrianSnowdon,HowardRVaneAllrightsreservedNopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystemortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanicalorphotocopying,recording,orotherwisewithoutthepriorpermissionofthepublisherPublishedbyEdwardElgarPublishingLimitedGlensandaHouseMontpellierParadeCheltenhamGlosGLUAUKEdwardElgarPublishing,IncWestStreetSuiteNorthamptonMassachusettsUSAAcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibraryISBNX(cased)(paperback)TypesetbyMantonTypesetters,Louth,Lincolnshire,UKPrintedandboundinGreatBritainbyMPGBooksLtd,Bodmin,CornwallvContentsListoffiguresxListoftablesxiiiPrefacexivAcknowledgementsxviiUnderstandingmodernmacroeconomicsMacroeconomicissuesandideasTheroleofeconomictheoryandcontroversyObjectives,instrumentsandtheroleofgovernmentTheGreatDepressionKeynesandthebirthofmacroeconomicsTheriseandfalloftheKeynesianconsensusTheoreticalschizophreniaandtheneoclassicalsynthesisSchoolsofthoughtinmacroeconomicsafterKeynesThenewpoliticalmacroeconomicsTherenaissanceofeconomicgrowthresearchKeynesvthe‘old’classicalmodelIntroductionClassicalmacroeconomicsEmploymentandoutputdeterminationSay’sLawThequantitytheoryofmoneyKeynes’sGeneralTheoryInterpretingtheGeneralTheoryKeynes’smainpropositionsKeynes’sanalysisofthelabourmarketKeynes’srejectionofSay’sLawKeynesandthequantitytheoryofmoneyThreeimportantinterpretationsofKeynesThe‘new’KeynesscholarshipCausesandconsequencesoftheGreatDepressionHowtopayforthewarKeynesandinternationalmacroeconomicsKeynes’slegacyandtheclassicalrevivalInterviewwithRobertSkidelskyTheorthodoxKeynesianschoolIntroductionTheorthodoxKeynesianschoolTheIS–LMmodelforaclosedeconomyUnderemploymentequilibriumintheKeynesianmodelTheIS–LMmodelforanopeneconomyThePhillipscurveandorthodoxKeynesianeconomicsThecentralpropositionsoforthodoxKeynesianeconomicsInterviewwithJamesTobinTheorthodoxmonetaristschoolIntroductionThequantitytheoryofmoneyapproachTheexpectationsaugmentedPhillipscurveanalysisThemonetaryapproachtobalanceofpaymentstheoryandexchangeratedeterminationTheorthodoxmonetaristschoolandstabilizationpolicyInterviewwithMiltonFriedmanThenewclassicalschoolIntroductionTheinfluenceofRobertELucasJrThestructureofnewclassicalmodelsEquilibriumbusinesscycletheoryThepolicyimplicationsofthenewclassicalapproachAnassessmentInterviewwithRobertELucasJrTherealbusinesscycleschoolIntroduction:thedemiseofnewclassicalmacroeconomicsmarkIThetransitionfrommonetarytorealequilibriumbusinesscycletheoryRealbusinesscycletheoryinhistoricalperspectiveCyclesversusrandomwalksSupplysideshocksBusinesscycles:mainfeaturesandstylizedfactsRealbusinesscycletheoryThestructureofarealbusinesscyclemodelviModernmacroeconomicsContentsviiTechnologyshocksArealbusinesscycleaggregatedemandandsupplymodelCalibratingthemodelRealbusinesscycletheoryandtheneutralityofmoneyMeasuringtechnologyshocks:theSolowresidualRealbusinesscycletheoryandthestylizedfactsThepolicyimplicationsofrealbusinesscycletheoryCriticismsofrealbusinesscycletheoryGreatDepressions:arealbusinesscycleviewAnassessmentInterviewwithEdwardCPrescottThenewKeynesianschoolThefallandriseofKeynesianeconomicsAKeynesianresurgenceNewKeynesianeconomicsCorepropositionsandfeaturesofnewKeynesianeconomicsNominalrigiditiesDornbusch’sovershootingmodelRealrigiditiesNewKeynesianbusinesscycletheoryHysteresisandtheNAIRUNewKeynesianeconomicsandthestylizedfactsPolicyimplicationsKeynesianeconomicswithouttheLMcurveCriticismsofnewKeynesianeconomicsAnassessmentofnewKeynesianeconomicsInterviewwithNGregoryMankiwThePostKeynesianschoolPaulDavidsonIntroductionThesignificanceoftheprincipleofeffectivedemandTaxonomyKeynes’staxonomicattackonSay’sLawCanrelativepricechangesinduceDtofillthegapInvestmentspending,liquidity,andthenonneutralityofmoneyaxiomWhattypeofaneconomicsystemis‘irrational’enoughtousemoneycontractsInformation,decisionsanduncertaintyClassifyingdecisionmakingenvironmentsKeynesianuncertainty,moneyandexplicitmoneycontractsConclusionsTheAustrianschoolRogerWGarrisonTheMengerianvisionTheintertemporalstructureofcapitalSavingandeconomicgrowthThesaving–investmentnexusThemarketforloanablefundsFullemploymentandtheproductionpossibilitiesfrontierThecapitalbasedmacroeconomicframeworkSavinginducedcapitalrestructuringKeynes’sparadoxofthriftrevisitedTheAustriantheoryofthebusinesscycleAKeynesiandownturnintheAustrianframeworkInflationanddeflationintheAustriantheoryPolicyandreformThenewpoliticalmacroeconomicsIntroduction:politicaldistortionsandmacroeconomicperformancePoliticalinfluencesonpolicychoiceTheroleofgovernmentPoliticiansandstabilizationpolicyAlternativeapproachestothe‘politicalbusinesscycle’:anoverviewTheNordhausopportunisticmodelTheHibbspartisanmodelThedeclineandrenaissanceofopportunisticandpartisanmodelsRationalpoliticalbusinesscyclesRationalpartisantheoryOpportunisticandpartisanbehaviour:asynthesisPolitics,timeinconsistency,credibilityandreputationPolicyimplicationsofpoliticoeconomicmodels:anindependentcentralbankThepoliticaleconomyofdebtanddeficitsPoliticalandeconomicinstability:aretheyrelatedThepoliticaleconomyofeconomicgrowthPoliticalbarrierstoeconomicgrowthThesizeofnationsviiiModernmacroeconomicsContentsixConclusionInterviewwithAlbertoAlesinaTherenaissanceofeconomicgrowthresearchIntroductionThe‘GreatDivergence’InpraiseofeconomichistoryBacktothelongrunWhyiseconomicgrowthsoimportantModerneconomicgrowthinhistoricalperspectiveThestylizedfactsofgrowthProximatevfundamentalsourcesofgrowthTheHarrod–DomarmodelTheSolowneoclassicalgrowthmodelAccountingforthesourcesofeconomicgrowthTheconvergencedebateBeyondtheSolowmodelEndogenousgrowth:constantreturnstocapitalaccumulationEndogenousgrowth:theeconomicsofideasAnaugmentedSolowmodel:aneoclassicalrevivalFocusingonthefundamentalcausesofgrowthInstitutionsandeconomicgrowthTradeandeconomicgrowthGeographyandgrowthGrowthinhistory:insearchofaunifiedtheoryTheidealconditionsforgrowthanddevelopment:rediscoveringoldtruthsInterviewwithRobertMSolowInterviewwithPaulMRomerConclusionsandreflectionsIntroductionTwentiethcenturydevelopmentsinmacroeconomics:evolutionorrevolutionIsthereaconsensusonkeymacroeconomicissuesBibliographyAuthorindexSubjectindexxFiguresUnemploymentintheUSandUKeconomiesoverthecourseofthetwentiethcenturyInflationintheUSandUKeconomiesoverthecourseofthetwentiethcenturyTheaggregateproductionfunction(a)andthemarginalproductoflabour(b)OutputandemploymentdeterminationintheclassicalmodelTheclassicalinterestratemechanismandSay’sLawThedeterminationofthepricelevelintheclassicalmodelThedeterminationofoutputandemploymentKeynesandinvoluntaryunemploymentAggregatedemandfailureintheUSeconomy,–DemandforspeculativebalancesThegeneralizedIS–LMmodelExpansionaryfiscalpolicyExpansionarymonetarypolicyThegovernmentbudgetconstraintandbondfinancedfiscalexpansionThegeneralcasewiththeKeyneseffectTheliquiditytrapcaseTheinterestinelasticinvestmentcaseTheMundell–FlemingKeynesianmodelFiscalexpansionunderimperfectcapitalmobilityMonetaryexpansionunderimperfectcapitalmobilityFiscalexpansionunder(a)and(b)imperfectand(c)perfectcapitalmobilityMonetaryexpansionunder(a)imperfectand(b)perfectcapitalmobilityThePhillipscurveTherelationshipbetweenwagechangeandexcessdemandforlabourTherelationshipbetweenexcessdemandforlabourandunemploymentTherelationshipbetweenexcessdemandforlabour,vacancyandunemploymentratesFiguresxiThelinkbetweentheKeynesianmodelandwageandpriceinflationTheevolutionoforthodoxmonetarismTheclassicalcaseTheKeynesiancaseTheexpectationsaugmentedPhillipscurveThetradeoffbetweeninflationandunemploymentTheoutput–employmentcostsofreducinginflationThestructureofnewclassicalmodelsThewelfareimplicationsofequilibriuminacompetitivemarketTheeffectsofanticipatedandunanticipatedchangesinthemoneysupplyonthelevelofoutputandthepricelevelConsistentandoptimalequilibriumGameplayedbetweenthemonetaryauthoritiesandwagenegotiatorsTherelationshipbetweenaverageinflationandcentralbankindependenceTheevolutionofnewclassicalmacroeconomicsThepathofoutputinthe‘trendreverting’caseThepathofoutputwhereshockshaveapermanentinfluenceOutputandemploymentfluctuationsduetoatechnologyshockTheIS–LMmodelwithflexiblepricesTherealbusinesscycleaggregatedemandandsupplymodelTheimpactofatechnologyshockTheimpactofagovernmentexpenditureshockTheimpactoftemporaryandpermanenttechnologyshocksintherealbusinesscyclemodelTheannualgrowthratesoftechnologyandoutputintheUSA,–SupplyshocksandthepricelevelNominalwagecontracts,rationalexpectationsandmonetarypolicyPriceadjustmentundermonopolisticcompetitionMenucostsvpriceadjustmentNearrationalityTheefficiencywageandtheSolowconditionInvoluntaryunemploymentintheefficiencywagemodelTheshirkingmodelTheimpactofanaggregatedemandshockinthenewKeynesianmodelTheriskbasedaggregatesupplycurveStandardizedunemploymentratesforNorthAmerica(USAandCanada)andOECDEurope,–The‘naturalrate’viewoftherelationshipbetweenactualunemploymentandequilibriumunemploymentThehysteresisviewofa‘timevarying’NAIRUBankofEnglandinflationreportfanchartforFebruary:forecastofCPIinflationatconstantnominalinterestratesofpercentUKinflationandinflationexpectations,October–OctoberDerivationoftheADcurveAdjustingtolongrunequilibriumintheAD–IAmodelTheintertemporalstructureofproductionApossibletemporalpatternofconsumableoutputIntertemporalcapitalrestructuringTimediscountandderiveddemandTheloanablefundsmarketTheproductionpossibilitiesfrontierAcapitalbasedmacroeconomicframeworkSavinginducedeconomicgrowthAsavinginducedrecessionApolicyinducedboomandbustAninvestmentledcollapseintorecessionInfluencesonpolicychoiceApoliticoeconomicmodelTheNordhauspoliticalbusinesscyclemodelThelongrunsolutionintheNordhausmodelTheHibbspartisanmodelHowinequalitymayadverselyaffectgrowthTheimpactonpercapitaincomeofdifferentialgrowthratesThegreatdivergenceTheneoclassicalaggregateproductionfunctionTheSolowgrowthmodelTechnologicalprogressTransitiondynamicsConditionalconvergenceProximateandfundamentalsourcesofgrowthxiiModernmacroeconomicsxiiiTablesTheGreatDepressionGrowthofpercapitaGDP,worldandmajorregions,–Growthrates(GDP),–Unemploymentrates,–Inflationrates,–USGDP,pricesandunemployment:–Keynesandtheinternationaleconomicsystem,Mostcitedmacroeconomists:–Mostcitedmacroeconomists:–Mostcitedmacroeconomists:–Mostcitedmacroeconomists:–Citationcounts:–CentralbankindependenceandeconomicperformanceThe‘stylizedfacts’ofthebusinesscycleNAIRUestimatesfortheGcountriesandtheeuroareaEvidenceonreasonsforpricestickinessPoliticoeconomicmodelsofaggregatefluctuationsPartisaninfluenceonmacroeconomicoutcomes,USA,–RatesofgrowthofGDPinrealtermsAlternativepoliticoeconomicmodelsSelectedindicatorsofgovernance:subSaharanAfricancountriesLevelandrateofgrowthofGDPpercapita:worldandmajorregions,–ADThreeindicatorsoflivingstandards:countriesThecumulativeimpactofdifferentialgrowthratesAtaleoftwoKoreasGrowthratesofpercapitaGDP():thetwoKoreasSomeareasofagreementanddisagreementinmacroeconomicsxivPrefaceOverthelasttenyearswehavecollaboratedincowritingandoreditingfivebooksonmacroeconomicsThefirstofthisseriesofbooks,AModernGuidetoMacroeconomics:AnIntroductiontoCompetingSchoolsofThought,waspublishedbyEdwardElgarin,whileourmostrecentjointventure,AnEncyclopediaofMacroeconomics,waspublishedbyEdwardElgarinDuringthecourseofcowritingandeditingtheEncyclopediaofMacroeconomicsanumberofeminenteconomists,whocontributedtotheproject,askedifwehadanyplanstowriteasecondeditionoftheModernGuidetoMacroeconomics,abookwhichhasreceivedwidespreadcriticalacclaimandbeentranslatedintoFrench(Ediscience,),Chinese(CommercialPress,),Italian(EtasLibri,),andPolish(PolishScientificPublishers,)InitiallyweintendedtoproduceasecondeditionoftheModernGuidetoMacroeconomicsinvolvingamendmentstoeachchapter,aswellasupdatingthedataandreferencesHowever,astheprojectunfoldedwedecidedthattheModernGuidetoMacroeconomicsrequiredanextensiverewrite,notonlyinvolvingmajoramendmentstoeachchapter,butalsorequiringtheadditionoftwonewchapterssurveyingtheburgeoningliteratureonthe‘newpoliticalmacroeconomics’andthe‘newgrowth’literatureAsaresultoftheseextensivechangeswedecidedthatthecurrentbookwassufficientlydifferenttowarrantanewtitle,whichreflectsitsthemeandcontentsInwritingModernMacroeconomics:ItsOrigins,DevelopmentandCurrentStatewehavealsobeenkindlyaidedbytwoeminentscholarsintheirrespectivefields,ProfessorPaulDavidsonwhocontributedChapteronthePostKeynesianschoolandProfessorRogerGarrisonwhocontributedChapterontheAustrianschoolThemainaimofournewbook,asreflectedinitstitle,istoconsidertheorigins,developmentandcurrentstateofmodernmacroeconomicsinamannerappropriateforintermediateundergraduatestakingcoursesinmacroeconomicsAssuchwehaveassumedthatsuchstudentswillalreadyhaveafirmgraspofbasiceconomicprinciplesandbefamiliarwithintroductorymacroeconomictheoriesandmodelsasdeveloped,forexample,intextbookssuchasthosebyAbelandBernanke(),Blanchard(),orMankiw()Thisbookshould,however,alsoproveusefultostudentstakingotherundergraduateeconomicscourses,mostnotablyinthehistoryofeconomicthought,aswellaseconomichistoryForthebenefitofintermediateundergraduateswehavemarkedwithanasteriskthosereferencesinthebibliographythatareparticularlyrecommendedforfurtherreadingInprovidingextensivereferencingthebookshouldalsoprovetobeausefulintroductoryguidetotheresearchliteratureforpostgraduatestudentsintheirpreliminaryyearofstudyWhilethebookiswrittensoastoallowstudentsonarangeofdegreecoursestoreadindividualchaptersinisolation,accordingtotheirinterestsandneeds,inlinewiththeModernGuidetoMacroeconomicsthebookfollowsastructureddirectiontracingtheoriginsanddevelopmentofmodernmacroeconomicsinhistoricalperspectiveInabookofthisnatureitisobviouslyimpossibletocovereveryareaWehavethereforeaimedtohighlightwhatweconsidertohavebeenthemajorissuesthatemergedfollowingthebirthofmacroeconomicsinthesFollowingtheintroductorychapteronunderstandingmacroeconomics,ChapterconsidersthedebatebetweenKeynesandtheoldclassicalmodelbeforetracingthedevelopmentoftheorthodoxKeynesianschool(Chapter),theorthodoxmonetaristschool(Chapter),thenewclassicalschool(Chapter),therealbusinesscycleschool(Chapter),thenewKeynesianschool(Chapter),thePostKeynesianschool(Chapter)andtheAustrianschool(Chapter)ReadersfamiliarwithaModernGuidetoMacroeconomicswillrecognizeourchosenapproach,namelytodiscussthecentraltenetsunderlying,andthepolicyimplicationsof,thesemaincompetingschoolsofthoughtinmacroeconomicsastheyevolvedinhistoricalperspectiveIndoingsowehavetakentheopportunitytoincludeinChapters–morerece

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(英文版)现代宏观经济学——起源、发展和现状

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