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首页 电动汽车

电动汽车

电动汽车

yuandongli
2009-04-22 0人阅读 举报 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《电动汽车pdf》,可适用于工程科技领域

GlobalAutomobilesAutoManufacturingJuneElectricCars:PluggedInBatteriesmustbeincludedDeutscheBankSecuritiesIncAllpricesarethosecurrentattheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicatedPricesaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,BloombergandothervendorsDataissourcedfromDeutscheBankandsubjectcompaniesDeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreportsThus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportInvestorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecisionIndependent,thirdpartyresearch(IR)oncertaincompaniescoveredbyDBSI'sresearchisavailabletocustomersofDBSIintheUnitedStatesatnocostCustomerscanaccessthisIRathttp:gmdbcom,orcalltorequestthatacopyoftheIRbesenttothemDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIXFITTResearchFundamental,Industry,Thematic,ThoughtLeadingDeutscheBankCompanyResearch'sResearchProductCommitteehasdeemedthisworkFITTforinvestorsseekingdifferentiatedideasRisingoilprices,regulations,andadvancesinbatterytechnologysetthestageforincreasedelectrificationoftheworld’sautomobilesWeseeimplicationsnotonlyforautomakersandtraditionalautopartssuppliers–butalsoforbatterycompanies,rawmaterialproducers,electricutilities,alternativepower,oildemand,andtheglobaleconomyGlobalAutosResearchTeamRodLacheResearchAnalyst()rodlachedbcomPatrickNolan,CFAAssociateAnalyst()patricknolandbcomDanGalvesAssociateAnalyst()dangalvesdbcomGaetanToulemondeResearchAnalyst()gaetantoulemondedbcomJochenGehrkeResearchAnalyst()jochengehrkedbcomKurtSanger,CFAResearchAnalyst()kurtsangerdbcomVincentHa,CFAResearchAnalyst()vincenthadbcomSrinivasRaoResearchAnalyst()sriniraodbcomCommoditiesStrategyJoelCraneStrategist()joelcranedbcomCompanyGlobalMarketsResearchGlobalAutomobilesAutoManufacturingJuneElectricCars:PluggedInBatteriesmustbeincludedRodLacheResearchAnalyst()rodlachedbcomDanGalvesAssociateAnalyst()dangalvesdbcomPatrickNolan,CFAAssociateAnalyst()patricknolandbcomFundamental,Industry,Thematic,ThoughtLeadingDeutscheBankCompanyResearch'sResearchProductCommitteehasdeemedthisworkFITTforinvestorsseekingdifferentiatedideasRisingoilprices,regulations,andadvancesinbatterytechnologysetthestageforincreasedelectrificationoftheworld’sautomobilesWeseeimplicationsnotonlyforautomakersandtraditionalautopartssuppliers–butalsoforbatterycompanies,rawmaterialproducers,electricutilities,alternativepower,oildemand,andtheglobaleconomyDeutscheBankSecuritiesIncAllpricesarethosecurrentattheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicatedPricesaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,BloombergandothervendorsDataissourcedfromDeutscheBankandsubjectcompaniesDeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreportsThus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportInvestorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecisionIndependent,thirdpartyresearch(IR)oncertaincompaniescoveredbyDBSI'sresearchisavailabletocustomersofDBSIintheUnitedStatesatnocostCustomerscanaccessthisIRathttp:gmdbcom,orcalltorequestthatacopyoftheIRbesenttothemDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIXFITTResearchCompaniesfeaturedGeneralMotors(GMN),USDHoldBorgWarner(BWAN),USDHoldFordMotor(FN),USDHoldJohnsonControls(JCIN),USDHoldMagnaInternational(MGAN),USDHoldTRWAutomotive(TRWN),USDBuySamsungSDI(KS),KRW,HoldSanyoElectric(T),¥SellRockwood(ROCN),USDBuyContinental(CONGDE),EURHoldFundamental:monumentalchallengesfortheglobalautoindustryRisinggasolinepriceshavecausedunprecedentedshiftsinindustrymix,alongwithsharpdeclinesintheresidualvalueoflessfuelefficientvehiclesAlreadywehaveseenthesalesofhybridvehiclesrisemarkedlylastyearandintodateThereisalsogrowingrecognitionthatitmaynotbepossibletomeetonerousfuelefficiencytargetsthroughupgradestoconventionalpowertrainsanddrivetrainsIndustry:fromchangecomesopportunityEvenifoilwasnotaslargeadriverasitistoday,regulatoryinitiativesaimedatimprovingfuelefficiencyCOemissionspresentahugeobstaclefortheglobalautoindustryTakentogether,webelievethatpeakoilandabarrageofstifferregulationsarelikelytospurtheelectrificationoftheautomobile–sharplyThematic:thebatteryiskey–andweseelithiumiontechnologywinningHighenergy,costeffective,longlasting,andabusetolerantbatterieswillbethekeytechnicalenablersforthisshiftTherehavebeenrecentbreakthroughsinthisareaBasedondiscussionswithautomakersandsuppliers,wehavealmostnodoubtthatlithiumionbatterychemistrieswilltakeoverfromnickelmetalhydride–ultimatelydominatingthismarketThoughtLeading:therepercussionsarefarreachingWefindelectricvehiclesdestinedformuchmoregrowththaniswidelyperceivedButbeyondthat,ultimatelyweseeevenbiggerbeneficiariesWeseetremendousgrowthpotentialinlargeformatlithiumionbatteries–inothermarketsaswellasautosAlongwiththebatterymakers,producersofinputsconsumedinbatterymanufacturingarealsonicelypositionedConnectiontotheelectricgridholdsunexploredpotentialtoo,andthistechnologycouldtransformalternativepowerOpportunitiesformanytraditionalautopartscompanies–andelsewhereWeseemanycompanieswecovernowbenefitingfromthistrend,includingBorgWarner,JohnsonControls,TRWandContinentalInthisreport,wealsodescribethecompetitivelandscapeintheemerginglithiumionbatterymarketandinthevitalcommodity,lithiumAnotherintriguingthemeistheemergenceofserviceorientedcompaniesthatcantakeupfrontcostsawayfromtheconsumerJuneAutoManufacturingElectricCars:PluggedInPageDeutscheBankSecuritiesIncTableofContentsExecutivesummaryOutlook:dramaticchangefosterstheriseofElectricVehiclesRisksKeythemesfortheglobalautoindustryPeakoilisdrivingchange……alongwithabarrageofregulationsFromchangecomesopportunityHowever,moredramaticchangesarelikelyRiseoftheElectricVehicleFuelsavingspotentialCostbenefitpropositionisstraightforwardandcompellingGovernmentsponsorshipisakeyvariableNewbusinessmodelswillemerge……ledbybreakthroughsinenergystoragetechnologies…whichcouldfindmanyotherlargeandimportantmarketsAlternativepowercouldbetransformedbythistechnologyElectricvehicles:underthehoodWhygohybridHybridcategoriesPluginelectricvehiclesandextendedrangeelectricvehiclesThebatteryiskeyToday:nickelmetalhydride(NiMH)Thefuture:lithiumionchemistriesLithiumionbatterieshaveseveraladvantages……aswellaschallengesTherearefourmaintypesofautomotivelithiumionbatteriesAnalysisofcostAnalysisofmarketLithiumionbatterycompetitorsWeseedevelopersattheleadingedgeJohnsonControls,A,andEnerLGChem,Sanyo,Samsung,Hitachi,Valence,GSYuasa,Polypore,AsahiKasai,Enova,QuantumUltracapacitors:acomplementarymarketCommodities:lithiumOverview:industrialmetalsLithiumsupplyanddemandLeadingproducersAppendixAOverviewofCObasedvehicletaxesintheEUAppendixBEuropeancitycongestiontaxoverviewJuneAutoManufacturingElectricCars:PluggedInDeutscheBankSecuritiesIncPageExecutivesummaryOutlook:dramaticchangefosterstheriseofelectricvehiclesRisingoilprices,increasedsocietalconcernaboutclimatechange,andabarrageofregulationsfocusingonfuelenergyefficiencyCOemissionshavethepotentialtocauseprofoundchangesintheglobalautoindustryoverthenextfivetoyearsIndustrymarketshare,mix,competitiveadvantages,vehiclecontentlevels,usedvehiclevalues,thefrequencyofconsumerpurchases,andpowertraintechnology–allcouldchangemoredramaticallyoverthenextfiveyearsthantheyhaveinthepastWearealreadybearingwitnesstoprofoundchanges…Risinggasolinepriceshavehadseveralrepercussions:„Unprecedentedshiftsinindustrymix:USsegmentmarketshareforlighttrucksfellbasispointsinMay„Dramaticresidualvaluedeclinesforlessfuelefficientvehicles:AnewChevyTahoelargeSUVcosts$,morethanaToyotaRAVsmallCUV,butafouryearoldusedTahoenowsellsfor$,less„Theemergenceofnewtechnology:SalesofhybridsintheUSroseinandareupYTD)ThesechangesraisemanyquestionsabouttheintermediatetermprospectsfortheautoautopartscompaniesinouruniverseYetwecontinuetoseeopportunitiesforcompaniesfocusedontechnologiesthatenhanceenergyefficiency–notablyBorgWarner…andlately,wehavebecomemoreconvincedoffurtherdramaticchangestocomeAutomotiveengineersarerecognizingthatitmaynotbepossibletomeettheonerousfuelefficiencytargetsrequiredofthemthroughupgradestoconventionalpowertrainsanddrivetrainsAgrowingnumberofindustryexecutivespredictthatincreasedlevelsofelectrificationwillberequiredWebelievethatrisingfuelpricesandregulatorychallengesarelikelytoincreasetheelectrificationoftheautomobile–sharplyThere’sanothermajorinfluencehere–advancesinbatterytechnologyHighenergy,costeffective,longlasting,andabusetolerantbatterieswillbethekeytechnicalenablersforthisshift,andtherehavebeenrecentbreakthroughsinmeetingtheserequirementsWefindelectricvehiclesdestinedformuchmoregrowththaniswidelyperceivedThisincludeshybridelectricvehicles,pluginhybridelectricvehicles,andevenfullyelectricvehicles„IntheUSalone,hybridelectricvehiclemodelswereavailablein,areexpectedbytheendof,andatleastwillbeavailablewithinbyNHTSA’sAprilreportonproposedCorporateAverageFuelEconomyStandardsprojectedthathybridvehiclescouldrisetooftheUSmarketby,fromjustofthemarketinGlobalInsightprojectshybridizationoftheUSmarketby„InEurope,wherefueleconomyrequirementsareonanevensteepertrajectory,RolandBergerandJDPowerestimatedthatthemarketforhybridselectricvehiclescouldrisetoby(mostlymicrohybrids),fromapproximatelyinJuneAutoManufacturingElectricCars:PluggedInPageDeutscheBankSecuritiesIncBatteries–andtheirinputs,especiallylithium–shouldbenefitinparticularSeveralofthelargesttraditionalTierOneAutoPartssuppliers(includingContinental,Denso,Magna,andDelphi)areinvolvedindevelopingcontrolsystemsthatintegratehybridpowertrainsButwebelievethatultimatelythebiggestbeneficiariesmaybe:„Automotivebatterymanufacturers„ProducersofresourcesandcomponentsconsumedinbatterymanufacturingBasedondiscussionswithautomakersandsuppliers,weseealmostnodoubtthatlithiumionbatterychemistrieswillultimatelydominatethismarketWeseetremendousgrowthpotentialinthemarketforlargeformatlithiumionbatteries–to$$bnintheautomotivemarketaloneby,versus$bnfortheoveralllithiumionbatterymarkettodayTheautomotivemarketforlithiumionbatteriescouldreach$$bnbyInadditiontotheimpactonautomakers,traditionalautopartssuppliers,andbatterycompanies,weseesignificantopportunitiesarisingforelectricutilitiesandalternativepowerPerhapsthemostinterestingneartermopportunityresidesamongstrawmaterialproducers,giventherapidgrowthindemandweseeforkeycommoditiesincludinglithiumBasedoncurrentplansforlithiumproductioncapacity,andourprojectionofmaterialthatwillbeconsumedinautomotivebatteryproduction,webelievethatlithiumproductioncouldbumpupagainstsupplyconstraintsbyRisksWearebullishonthelongtermprospectsforelectrificationofautomobilesandlongtermdemandforproductssuchaslargeformatlithiumionbatteriesStill,wewouldcautionthatneartermdemand(ie,,)forlithiumbatteriesfromthismarketwillberelativelylow,asautomakersandsuppliersarestillvalidatingproductsandgearingupforlargescaleproduction(wealsobelievethatnickelmetalhydridebatteriesmaystilldominatemildandfullhybridapplicationsevenin)Consequently,expectationsforneartermspikesindemandforcommoditiesandbatteryproductionvaluesmayturnouttobeoverlyoptimistic(growthinlithiumsupplymayexceedgrowthinlithiumdemandnearterm)Inaddition,wenotethatmanyofthecompaniesleadingthefieldforautomotivelithiumionbatteryproductionhavelimitedexperienceinproducingtheseproductsonanautomotivescaleConsequently,therampuptocommercialproductioninvolvesrisksNoteonvaluation:Byitsnature,thisreportisnotorientedtowardourBuy,Hold,andSellrecommendationsonDeutscheBank’sstandardmonthtimehorizonOurtypicalvaluationmethodsincludeanEVEBITDAvaluationmethodologyforourcompanieswithextensiveliabilitiesandPEvaluationmethodologyforcompaniesthatgenerateconsiderablefreecashflowandexhibitanabilitytoconsistentlygrowearningsFordisclosurespertainingtorecommendationsorestimatesmadeonasecuritymentionedinthisreport,pleaseseethemostrecentlypublishedcompanyreportorvisitourglobaldisclosurelookuppageonourwebsiteathttp:gmdbcomJuneAutoManufacturingElectricCars:PluggedInDeutscheBankSecuritiesIncPageKeythemesfortheglobalautoindustryPeakoilisdrivingchange…Inarecentreportonpeakoil,DeutscheBank’sOilResearchteamlaidouttheworld’sacuteoilproblemsverysuccinctly:TheyestimatedthattheworldiscurrentlyconsumingmillionbarrelsofoilperdayTrenddemandgrowthisroughlyonemillionbarrelsperdayperyearTheynotedthatagrowingchorusofoilindustryexecutives,includingtheCEOsofConocoPhilipsandTOTAL,believeworldisconvergingonpeakoilproductionofuptoMMbarrelsperdayTheseproductionconcernsarepartlyresponsiblefortheriseinoilpricessinceJanuaryThosepriceincreasesarealreadyhavingaprofoundimpactontheautoindustry,whichisexperiencingunprecedentedshiftsinsegmentmixawayfromlessfuelefficientvehiclesInApril,whenaskedabouttheimplicationsof$bbloil,GMViceChairmanBobLutzwasquotedsaying“thatwouldbasicallybringtheindustrytoahalt”YetprognosticationssuchasthishaveendedNowautomakers,autopartssuppliers,andinvestorsaredevelopingstrategiestodealwithoil’srecentrise,andtheveryrealpotentialforoiltomoveevenhigherTheEIAandIEAbothexpectoildemandtoexceedmbddemandbymidnextdecadeIftheviewsoftheoil“peakists”areprovencorrect,

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