中国经济形势真实比较2009.4.10

Paris, 10 April 2009 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release Composite Leading Indicators continue to signal deep slowdown in OECD area OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for February 2009 continue to point to a deep slowdown for all the major seven economies. Although some tentative signs of improvement in the rate of deterioration in the outlook are appearing in some countries, noticeably Italy, France and in some of the smaller OECD countries, the emphasis on ‘tentative’ cannot be overstated. The picture for all countries remains weak with the outlook in the United States, Canada, Japan and the major non-OECD member economies in particular, further deteriorating since last month. The CLI for the OECD area decreased by 0.6 point in February 2009 and was 9.7 points lower than in February 2008. The CLI for the United States fell by 1.1 point in February and was 11.8 points lower than a year ago. The Euro area’s CLI decreased by 0.2 point in February and stood 8.2 points lower than a year ago. In February, the CLI for Japan decreased by 1.5 point, and was 11.2 points lower than a year ago. The CLI for the United Kingdom fell by 0.2 point in February 2009 and was 6.6 points lower than a year ago. The CLI for Canada decreased by 1.2 point in February and was 10.6 points lower than a year ago. For France, the CLI increased by 0.1 point in February but was 4.7 points lower than a year ago. The CLI for Germany fell by 0.3 point in February and was 12.9 points lower than a year ago. For Italy, the CLI increased by 0.4 point in February but stood 4.1 points lower than a year ago. The CLI for China decreased 0.7 point in February 2009 and was 12.5 points lower than a year ago. The CLI for India fell by 0.8 point in February 2009 and was 10.1 points lower than in February 2008. The CLI for Russia decreased by 1.9 points in February and was 19.7 points lower than a year ago. In February 2009 the CLI for Brazil decreased by 2.4 points and was 12.1 points lower than a year ago. Strong slowdown in the OECD area Strong slowdown in China 85 90 95 100 105 110 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 85 90 95 100 105 110 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Strong slowdown in the United States Strong slowdown in the Euro area 85 90 95 100 105 110 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 85 90 95 100 105 110 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 The above graphs show each country’s growth cycle outlook based on the CLI which attempts to indicate turning points in economic activity approximately six months in advance. Shaded areas represent observed growth cycle downswings (measured from peak to trough) in the reference series (economic activity). Administrator 文本高亮工具 Administrator 箭头工具 Administrator 椭圆工具 Administrator 椭圆工具 Administrator 线条工具 Administrator 箭头工具 Administrator 打字机 综合先行指数 Administrator 线条工具 Administrator 打字机 中国真实经济情况对比 Paris, 10 April 2009 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release Strong slowdown in Japan Strong slowdown in France 85 90 95 100 105 110 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 85 90 95 100 105 110 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Strong slowdown in Germany Strong slowdown in Italy 85 90 95 100 105 110 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 85 90 95 100 105 110 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Strong slowdown in the United Kingdom Strong slowdown in Brazil 85 90 95 100 105 110 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 85 90 95 100 105 110 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Strong slowdown in Canada Strong slowdown in India 85 90 95 100 105 110 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 85 90 95 100 105 110 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Strong slowdown in Russia 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 The above graphs show each country’s growth cycle outlook based on the CLI, which attempts to indicate turning points in economic activity approximately six months in advance. Shaded areas represent observed growth cycle downswings (measured from peak to trough) in the reference series (economic activity). Paris, 10 April 2009 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release Table 1: Composite Leading Indicators Ratio to trend, amplitude adjusted Change from previous month Year on Year change Growth cycle outlook** (long term average =100) (points) (points) 2008     2009    2008 2009 Latest month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb OECD Area 95.9 94.6 93.5 92.7 92.0 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1 -0.9 -0.6 -9.7 strong slowdown Euro Area 96.2 95.3 94.5 94.0 93.8 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.2 -8.2 strong slowdown Major Five Asia* 95.5 93.9 92.5 91.4 90.5 -1.7 -1.6 -1.4 -1.1 -0.9 -11.7 strong slowdown Major Seven 96.0 94.6 93.2 92.2 91.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -0.8 -10.3 strong slowdown           Canada 96.0 94.5 93.1 91.8 90.6 -1.4 -1.5 -1.4 -1.3 -1.2 -10.6 strong slowdown France 97.0 96.6 96.4 96.3 96.4 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.1 -4.7 strong slowdown Japan 96.5 94.7 92.8 91.2 89.7 -1.6 -1.8 -1.9 -1.5 -1.5 -11.2 strong slowdown Germany 94.9 93.1 91.7 90.6 90.3 -1.8 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -0.3 -12.9 strong slowdown Italy 96.6 96.3 96.3 96.3 96.7 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.4 -4.1 strong slowdown United Kingdom 97.2 96.6 96.3 96.0 95.7 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -6.6 strong slowdown United States 95.7 94.0 92.3 91.0 89.9 -1.7 -1.8 -1.6 -1.4 -1.1 -11.8 strong slowdown           Brazil 102.8 100.7 98.3 95.9 93.5 -1.7 -2.1 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -12.1 strong slowdown China 95.1 93.3 91.9 90.8 90.1 -1.9 -1.8 -1.4 -1.1 -0.7 -12.5 strong slowdown India 96.2 95.0 93.8 92.7 91.9  -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.1 -0.8 -10.1 strong slowdown Russia 96.4 93.2 90.4 87.9 86.0 -3.1 -3.2 -2.8 -2.5 -1.9 -19.7 strong slowdown * China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea. ** Growth cycle phases of the CLI are defined as follows: expansion (increase above 100), downturn (decrease above 100), slowdown (decrease below 100), recovery (increase below 100). CLI data for 29 OECD member countries and 6 OECD non-member economies available at: http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/default.aspx?datasetcode=MEI_CLI Table 2: Historical Performance of CLI and Recent Cyclical Turning Points in the Reference Series CLI Historical Performance Recent confirmed Turning Point dates in the reference series Lead (+) / Lag (-) at all turning points Dates marked with (P) are provisional turning points start year mean st. dev. peak trough peak trough peak trough OECD Area 1965 5 3.8 Aug 2000 Dec 2001 Nov 2007 P  Euro Area 1965 7 8.4 Nov 2000 Jul 2003  Oct 2007 P  Major Five Asia* 1995 6 6.3 Aug 2000 Dec 2001 Apr 2004 P Sep 2005 P  Feb 2008 P Major Seven 1965 5 4.5 Aug 2000 Dec 2001 Nov 2007 P  Canada 1956 8 3.5 Aug 2000 Nov 2001 Dec 2005 P France 1962 7 5.1 Jan 2001 Jun 2003 Dec 2007 P Japan 1959 6 4.2 Oct 2000 Dec 2001 Dec 2007 P Germany 1961 6 4.2 Nov 2000 Aug 2003 Dec 2007 P Italy 1973 5 5.4 Dec 2000 Mar 2005 P Feb 2008 P United Kingdom 1958 6 5.7 Nov 2000 Apr 2003 Apr 2004 Oct 2005 P Nov 2007 P United States 1955 5 3.5 May 2000 Dec 2001 Oct 2007 P Brazil 1978 2 5.3 Jan 2001 Jun 2003 Sep 2004 Oct 2006 P  Jun 2008 P  China 1983 3 4.2 Jul 2000 Feb 2002 Jun 2007 P India 1994 4 5.6 Apr 2000 Apr 2003 Apr 2007 P Russia 1994 0 3.2 Apr 2000 May 2002 Jun 2004 Jan 2006 P May 2008 P * China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea P= provisional (see Methodological Notes on next page) Administrator 线条工具 Administrator 椭圆工具 Administrator 文本高亮工具 Administrator 线条工具 Paris, 10 April 2009 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release Methodological Notes Purpose The OECD CLI is designed to provide early signals of turning points in business cycles – fluctuations of economic activity around its long term potential level. The approach, focusing on turning points (peaks and troughs), results in CLIs that provide qualitative rather than quantitative information on short-term economic movements. Four cyclical phases form the basis of this qualitative approach: expansion – CLI increasing and above 100; downturn – CLI decreasing and above 100; slowdown – CLI decreasing and below 100; recovery – CLI increasing and below 100. Although the CLIs attempt to predict movements in the output gap, they should not be interpreted as providing exact forecasts. Reference Series OECD CLIs are constructed from economic time series that have similar cyclical fluctuations to those of the business cycle but which precede those of the business cycle. Typically movements in GDP are used as a proxy for the business cycle but, because they are available on a more timely and monthly basis, the OECD CLI system uses instead indices of industrial production (IIP) as proxy reference series. Moreover despite their tendency towards higher volatility historical turning points of IIPs coincide well with those of GDP for most OECD countries. Table 2, above, shows recent turning points in the reference series and these are marked provisional until they have been verified with the turning points of de- trended quarterly GDP estimates. Summary Methodology The OECD CLIs are composite indicators: with components that target the early stages of production, respond rapidly to changes in economic activity, are sensitive to expectations of future activity or are control variables that measure policy stances. All components are passed through a series of filters before aggregation (seasonal adjustment, trend-removal, smoothing and normalisation). The composite indicator is constructed to: preserve the leading properties of the components, have more stable lead times, and have fewer missed or extra turning-points when compared to the reference series than the components alone. The historical performance (lead/lag at turning points) of the CLIs for individual countries and areas are set out in Table 2. More information on methodology is available in the following document: “OECD system of composite leading indicators”. Data A large set of component series, selected from a wide range of economic indicators, are used in constructing CLIs (224 series are used in total, about 5-10 for each country). CLIs are calculated for 29 OECD countries and 9 zones. They are calculated in three forms: amplitude adjusted, trend-restored, and year-on-year growth rate. These are comparable, respectively, with the de-trended reference series, the original reference series and the year-on-year growth rate of the reference series. The press release focuses on the amplitude adjusted form of the CLI, and includes the major countries and zones. Access to time series data and methodological information for OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI) and Consumer and Business Confidence Indicators is provided by the OECD Business Cycle Analysis Database available at the OECD web site at http://stats.oecd.org/mei/default.asp?rev=2 The OECD-Total covers the following 29 countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, and United States. The G7 area covers Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and United States. The Euro area (only Euro area countries that are members of OECD) covers the following 12 countries: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovak Republic and Spain. The Major Five Asia area covers China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea. This Press Release can be found on the OECD web page, see OECD Internet Site Contacts: For further information journalists are invited to contact the OECD's Media Relations Division on (33) 1 45 24 97 00 or e-mail news.contact@oecd.org. For technical questions contact stat.contact@oecd.org Next release: 11 May 2009