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Transforming Global Information and Communication Markets: The Political Economy of Innovation (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, c2009) ,改变全球信息和通信市场:政治经济学的创新(麻省理工学院出版社 .pdf

PeterF.CowheyandJonathanD.AronsonTransformingglobalinformaTionandCommuniCaTionmarkeTsThePoliTicaleconomyofinnovaTionTransformingGlobalInformationandCommunicationMarketsInformationRevolutionandGlobalPoliticsWilliamJ.DrakeandErnest.J.WilsonIII,editorsTheInformationRevolutionandDevelopingCountries(2004)ErnestWilsonHumanRightsintheGlobalInformationSociety(2006)RikkeFrankJørgensen,editorMobileCommunicationsandSociety:AGlobalPerspective(2007)ManuelCastells,MireiaFernández-Ardèvol,JackLinchuaunQiu,andArabaSeyAccessDenied:ThePracticeandPolicyofGlobalInternetFiltering(2008)RonaldDeibert,JohnPalfrey,RafalRohozinski,andJonathanZittrain,editorsGoverningGlobalElectronicNetworks:InternationalPerspectivesonPolicyandPower(2008)WilliamJ.DrakeandErnestJ.WilsonIII,editorsTransformingGlobalInformationandCommunicationMarkets:ThePoliticalEconomyofInnovation(2009)PeterF.CowheyandJonathanD.Aronson,withDonaldAbelsonTransformingGlobalInformationandCommunicationMarketsThePoliticalEconomyofInnovationPeterF.CowheyandJonathanD.AronsonwithDonaldAbelsonTheMITPressCambridge,MassachusettsLondon,England2009MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology.Allrightsreserved.Subjecttotheexceptionimmediatelyfollowing,thisbookmaynotbereproduced,inwholeorinpart,includingtheillustrations,inanyform(beyondthatcopyingpermittedbySections107and108oftheU.S.CopyrightLawandexceptbyreviewersforthepublicpress),withoutpermissionfromthepublishers.AnonlineversionofthisworkisavailableunderaCreativeCommonsAttribution–Noncommercial–ShareAlike3.0license.Itcanbeaccessedathttp://irps.ucsd.edu/globalinfoandtelecom/.Forinformationonquantitydiscounts,emailspecial_sales@mitpress.mit.edu.SetinStoneserif9/13bySNPBest-setTypesetterLtd.,HongKong.PrintedandboundintheUnitedStatesofAmerica.LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationDataCowhey,PeterF.,1948–Transformingglobalinformationandcommunicationmarkets:thepoliticaleconomyofinnovation/PeterF.CowheyandJonathanD.AronsonwithDonaldAbelsonp.cm.—(Informationrevolutionandglobalpolitics)Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.ISBN978-0-262-01285-0(hardcover:alk.paper)1.Technologicalinnovations—Economicaspects.2.Informationtechnology—Technologicalinnovations.3.Informationtechnology—Economicaspects.4.Telecommunication—Technologicalinnovations.I.Aronson,JonathanDavid.II.Abelson,Donald.III.Title.HC79.T4C6942009303.48'33—dc22200803105810987654321ContentsAcknowledgmentsviiIntroduction1ITheInflectionPoint1TheNextRevolutioninGlobalInformationandCommunicationMarkets72TheFirstTwoICTEras193ModularityattheInflectionPoint434ModularityandInnovation655ThePoliticalEconomyoftheInflectionPoint95IIATheoreticalInterlude6TheorybeforePolicy129IIIThreeDimensionsofGlobalMarketGovernance7TradeandtheGlobalNetworkRevolution1498WirelessInfrastructure1759InternetGovernance207SummaryandConclusions(withDonaldAbelson)233Notes269Index337AcknowledgmentsWeowethanksforsuggestionsandtolerancetoalloftheusualsuspects—family,friends,colleagues,andresearchassistants.WeparticularlywanttorecognizeandthankthreeofourcolleaguesinICTpolicy.MiltonMuellerwasaco-authoronanearlierpaperonwhichchapter9drawsheavily.DonaldAbelsonjoinedusasaco-authorofthesummary.JohnRichardswastheperfectsoundingboard,agreeinganddisagreeingwithourargu-mentsandprovokingustorefineourthinkingasthechapterstookshape.Chapters8and9alsodrawheavilyonpapersthatheco-authoredwithus.Andhereadthefinalmanuscriptandprovideduswithinsightfulsugges-tionsandcriticisms.Manypeoplesharedtheirideaswithus;asubstantialnumberdidso“offtherecord.”Wethankthoseanonymoussourcesandthesewhowereontherecord:DonAbelson,FrancoisBar,MichaelBorrus,CarlosCasasus,ManuelCastells,BobConn,CoryDoctorow,KennethCukier,PierredeVries,GeraldFaulhaber,EricGan,DonGips,ScottHarris,ReedHundt,DavidHytha,MimiIto,MichaelKleeman,ZhongYuanLi,PaulMaritz,CoryOndrejka,RobertPepper,PeterPreuss,NicholasPujet,HowardRheingold,GregoryRosston,SachioSemmoto,LarrySmarr,SimonWilkie,andJohnZysman.WealsothankCindyHwang,PiyooKochar,EmilieLasserson,FedericaMarchesi,andMegYoungforresearchassis-tance.Noneofthesefriendsandcriticsisresponsibleforanyerrorsoffactorargumentthatmayremain.Forfamily(Margaret,Megan,Joan,Adam,andZach)andmentors(RobertO.KeohaneandinmemoryofErnstB.Haas).Allofthem“inflectionpoints”inourlives.TransformingGlobalInformationandCommunicationMarketsIntroductionAs2009nears,theworldisinatimeofgloomandpanic.Willglobalgov-ernanceandtheglobaleconomicordersurvive?Inretrospect,somesawthecollapseofthedotcombubbleasaportentofthefinancialmeltdownandthecollapseofconfidenceinthefuture.IntheUnitedStatesthereisadourbipartisanconsensusthatescalatingspecialinterestpolitics,budgetdeficits,economicinsecurityinthemidstofmoreconsumption,environ-mentalandenergypolicygridlock,anddeepuncertaintiesaboutnational-securitystrategypointtointractableproblemsinthedesignandconductofpublicpolicy.Inothercountriesthespecificbillofcomplaintsmaydiffer,butasimilaruneasinessiswidespread.Althoughwecangripeaswellasanyoneabouttheworld’sfollies,thisbookismoreupbeat.SinceWorldWarII,aplanet-straddlinginformationandcommunicationstechnology(ICT)infrastructurehascreatedaglobalinformationeconomyatanever-acceleratingpace.Aradicallydifferentmodelforcompetitionandpublicpolicyforthisinfrastructurewasintro-ducedthatisfarsounderthanitspredecessor.Moreremarkably,countriesagreedtorewritethebasicinternationalagreementsgoverningcommerceforthecommunicationsandinformationinfrastructureinawaythatmakesmoresensethantheconsensusthatwasforgedimmediatelyafter1945.Foronce,thetransformationingovernanceandtechnologyisnotjustataleoftheprosperousstatesdoingbetter.Thesechangesboostedtheeco-nomictakeoffofIndiaandChinaandotheremergingpowers,andalsobroughtamuchgreaterlevelofdigitalconnectivitytothepoorthananyonedreamedofinthelate1980s.Muchremainstobedoneinpoorcountries,butanexpandingrecordofsuccessesnowexists.Forexample,bankingdoneovermobilephones(“m-banking”)istakingofffasterindevelopingcountries,whichlackwell-developedfinancialmarkets,thaninwealthycountries.Thisbookexplainshowandwhyacombinationoftechnologicalinno-vation,marketstrategies,andpoliticalentrepreneurshippropelledthese2Introductiondevelopments,firstintheUnitedStates,Europe,andJapanandthenintherestoftheworld.Publicdebatessometimesgrowcynicalaboutbigsuccessesinpublicpolicybecauseoftheirpreoccupationwiththeflawsthatareinherenttoeventhebestofpolicies.Althoughwenotebadnewswhenitoccurs,weemphasizethelargerstoryofaccomplishment.Policyisimperfectbecausetoolittleisknowntounderstandallthedimensionsofanissue,becausethetoolsforinterveninginmarketslacktheprecisionofasurgeon’sscalpel,andbecausesignificantcompromiseisnecessaryinpoliticalandeconomicbargaining.Politicsisnotprettyandoftenleadstoabsurdities,butitcanalsofundamentallyredirectoutmodedcompromisesthathampermarketefficiency.“Prettygood”governanceshouldbeagoal,notadisappointment.ThecurrentICTinfrastructurerequiredapolicyrevolutiontointroducecompetitionintelecommunicationsmarkets.Bycorrectingexistingineffi-ciencies,thispolicyreversalcreatedaninnovationspacethathadhighreturnsinthemarketforlong-distancephoneanddatacommunications.IncontrastwiththefewothercountriesthatquicklyfollowedtheleadoftheUnitedStates,theUSformulaeschewedmostlimitationsonthenumberofentrantsorthenumberofbusinessmodels,therebynudgingdiversebusinessstrategies.Justascrucially,thepolicy’spoliticalcoalitionpushedpolicyinawaythatfavoredexperimentationandinnovationinthecloselycomplementarymarketsofcomputingandglobalinformationsystemsforlargeusers.ThistiltinfavorofentrepreneursincomputernetworkingledtobroadcommercialdeploymentoftheInternetandtheWeb,toe-commerce,andtothemixingandminglingofdigitalappli-cations(includingbroadcasting,videoconferencing,andcollaborativecomputing).1But,asistypicalevenofsuccessfulpublicpolicy,theredefinedmarketwashardlyideal.Thepoliticalcompromisesthatenabledthepolicyshiftstillrestrictedcertainformsoffreedomofpricingandcompetitioninordertoensurestablepricingoflocalphoneservices.Theserestrictionsledtoaless-than-idealmarketandtriggeredacascadeofacademiccriticisminthe1980sandthe1990s.However,inourview,empoweringthecoalitionfavoringtechnologicalinnovationthroughpolicywasmorecrucialthangettingallthedetailscorrect.Thepolicycompromisedefinedarobustnewmarketinwhichthemostimportantoptionsfortechnologicalinnovationcouldbepursuedcompetitively.Still,baskinginpleasureoverpastgoodjudgmentsisperilous.Nosuc-cessfulpolicycomeswithalifetimewarranty.Toparaphrasethewarningsinadvertisementsformutualfunds,strongpastperformanceofapublicpolicyisnoguaranteeoffuturereturns.Webelievethattheworld’sinfor-Introduction3mationeconomyisataninflectionpoint.Aproductiveshiftinthedirec-tionoftheworldmarketispossibleifwecanadaptnationalandglobalpublicpoliciesprudently.Theinnovationspacethatnurturedchangeinthe1980sandthe1990sisbecominglessfertile.Thetelecommunications(“telecom”)marketissignificantlymoreefficienttoday,andthemajorpotentialforcreativepoliticaleconomicbargainsthatwouldopenmajormarketsforgrowth(throughgainsofefficiencyandinnovations)lieselse-where.CanthedomesticandglobalgovernanceoftheICTinfrastructureadapttoseizetheseopportunities?ThechaptersinpartIexplainthepoliticaleconomyofdomesticICTinfrastructurepolicy.Chapter1providesabriefoverviewoftheargument.Chapter2establishesabaselineforthechangebyreviewingthefirsttwoerasofICTdevelopment;italsoexplainsthetechnologicalandpoliti-caleconomicfactorsthatdrovetheshiftsintheAmericanmarketfromthe1950suntil2000.Chapters3and4explainhowaninflectionpointemergedafter2000,examinethetechnologicaldriversandchangesintheglobalsupplychainthatmaketheinflectionpointpossible,andstronglydisputepopularassumptionsaboutthetechnologicalandeconomicdimensionsofthemarket’sfuture.Forexample,sincethe1970smarketdominancefirstrestedwithAT&TandIBM,thenmovedontotheregionalBelloperatingcompaniesand“Wintel”(MicrosoftandIntel),andnowseemstobeheadingtowardGoogle.Buttheinflectionpointmeansthatthelastpassingofthetorchofmarketdominancewilltakeadifferentform.Chapter5describesthechangingpoliticaleconomyofpolicyintheUnitedStates(theglobalpacesetter).Itre-examinesthepoliticalandeco-nomiclogicofdebatesovertelecomcompetitionpolicy,suchasthedebatesover“netneutrality,”content,andinformation-marketpolicies.PartII,atheoreticalinterlude,exploresthepoliticaleconomyofglobalICTevolutionsincethe1950s.Itconsistsofasinglechapter,whichpro-videsananalyticframeworkforunderstandinghowandwhyglobalmarketgovernancerulesandinstitutionschangeandwhichalsoexaminesthearchitectureofgovernance.PartIIIcomprisesthreecasestudiesthattakeafiner-grainedlookatglobalmarketgovernance.Inchapter7thegeneralrulesgoverningcompetitionandpricingofglobalnetworksareconsidered.ThatchapterexamineswhygovernmentsmovedasmuchauthorityovertheseissuesfromtheInternationalTelecommunicationUniontotheWorldTradeOrganizationastheydid,andtheinternationalconsequencesthatarose.4IntroductionChapter8considersthespecializedworldofstandardsettingandspectrumpolicyandtherawpoliticsthatshapedtheinfrastructureofwirelesscom-munications.Chapter9examineswhythechoicesaboutinstitutionaldelegationforgovernancehadimportantimplicationsfortheevolutionoftheInternetandforthecreationofnewglobalresourcesfornetworking.Thecentralquestionoftheconcludingchapteris“Whatshouldbedonenext?”Inlightofthepoliticaleconomyshapingpolicyoptions,howshouldprudentpolicymakersapproachglobalmarketgovernance?Inthischapterwesetforthprinciplesandnormsfororganizingdecisionsandprovideexamplesofhowprogramsmightimplementthem.Ourgoalisnottolayoutadetailedmanifesto,butrathertosortoutfirstprinciplesforpolicyandthenbegintoimaginehowinnovationsmightturnprinci-plesintomarketrealities.TheMITPresshasagreedtomaketheentiretextofthebookavailableonlineatthetimeofpublication.Supplementarymaterialsonthewebsiteexploretopicstouchedoninthebookingreaterdepthandprovidebackgroundandexplanatorymaterials.Theonlinematerialisavailableathttp://irps.ucsd.edu/globalinfoandtelecom/.ITheInflectionPoint1TheNextRevolutioninGlobalInformationandCommunicationMarketsThisbookfocusesontheICTinfrastructure,theintersectionofcommuni-cationsnetworkswiththeinfrastructureandapplicationsofinformationtechnology.Thenetworkedinformationinfrastructurethatblendscom-putingandcommunicationsisthelargestconstructionprojectinhumanhistory.ThemoneyandtheeffortrequiredtobuildthisinfrastructuredwarfwhatwasneededtoerectthepyramidsofEgyptortheGreatWallofChina.Theinitialinvestmentcreatedahugeglobalmarketforinforma-tionandcommunicationstechnology,estimatedtogrowtoalmost$4trillionby2009.(Figure1.1tracksthegrowthofthehardware,software,services,andcommunicationsmarketsegmentsfrom1999to2009.1)Aninflectionpoint,accordingtoformerIntelchairmanAndyGrove,“occurswheretheoldstrategicpicturedissolvesandgiveswaytothenew.”2TodayweareatanewinflectionpointfortheICTinfrastructure.Allthecomponentsoftheinfrastructurearebecomingmodular,andpow-erfulbroadbandnetworksarebecomingubiquitous.Whenwespeakofmodularity,thinkofLegobuildingblocksofmanyshapesthatcanbeeasilymixedandmatchedbecausetheyhavestandardizedinterfacestostickthemtogether.ICTtechnologyisbecomingbothmodularandradi-callycheaper.Theequipmentindustryknowsthispathwell,asisevidentinconsumerelectronics.Butnowsoftwareandcontentarefollowingthesamepath.Atthesametime,ubiquitouswiredandwirelessbroadbandcanmeldtheseICTcapabilitiestogetherintofarmorepowerfulapplications,andtheseapplicationscanescapetheboundariesofofficebuildingsandliterallybeeverywhere.Modularityandbroadbandmeanthatconvergenceofservicesandequip-mentwilldefytraditionalmarketboundaries.TelevisionprogramsseenintheUnitedStatesmayoriginateonFrenchtelevisionbroadcastsandbedeliveredtoAmericanviewersbybroadbandInternet.Thedistinctionsbetweentelephoneanddataservicesarerapidlydisappearing.Decisions8Chapter1onwhethertostoredataonnetworkeddatabasesoroninexpensivehometerminalsareamatterofdesignformandfunction,becausestorageischeapandWebbrowsersmakeiteasiertoswitchbetweendataformats.PlayersinICTmarketsarescramblingtoadapttothisrapidlyemergingenvironment.ManyoftheirassumptionsabouthowICTmarketsoperate—assumptionsbasedoncompetitiveexperience—willnotbeaccurateguidestothefuture.Meanwhile,governmentpolicieshavesegmentedthemarketsinwaysthatdonotfitthenewrealities.Intheabsenceofsignificantpolicyreforms,globaleconomicprospectswilldiminish,perhapsmarkedly.Thischallengeraisesthecentralquestionweaddressinthisbook:HowcannationalandglobalpoliciesbestfulfillthepromiseofthisinflectionpointintheglobalICTinfrastructure?Weareespeciallyconcernedwithpublicpolicybecauseitwas,andwillcontinuetobe,acriticaldriveroftheICTinfrastructure’sevolution.Thismaysurprisesomeinthetechnologycommunity,becauseithasahabitofretrospectivelyassumingthatthemarchoftechnologywasinevitable.Butthisviewconvenientlyforgetsthemanybattlesoverpolicyandmarketsthatshapedthemarket’spath.Consider,forexample,thehistoryofinter-nationallong-distanceservices.In1949,WallStreetattorneysstillconsid-ereditastatussymbolto“reserve”anoperator-assistedcallfromNewYorkFigure1.1TotalICTspending,2000–2009.Source:DigitalPlanet:TheGlobalInformationEconomy(2006reportbyWorldInformationTechnologyandServicesAlliance),athttp://www.witsa.org.00.511.522.533.544.5TrillionsofUSdollarsComputerhardwareComputersoftwareComputerservicesCommunicationsTotalICTspending2000200120022003200420052006200720082009TheNextRevolution9toLondon.By1979,youcouldpunchafewnumbersandtherightphonewouldringthousandsofmilesaway,buthighpriceskeptinternationalcallingaluxury.Itwasnotuntil1999thatthepriceofglobalcallingplungedtothelevelofthemassmarket.The20-yearlagbetweentechno-logicalcapabilityandattractivepricingwasaproductofpoliciesandcor-poratestrategiesthatproppedupthecostofinternationalcalling.Tochangepricingrequiredmajorshiftsinnationalcompetitionpolicyandinworldtraderules.(Seechapter7.)In1967,televisionstillofferedonly5–10channels,andprogrammingwasgearedtothemedianviewer.In2007,morethan100channelsappealedtominutelydissectedaudiences,suchasaficionadosoftroutfishingorcooking.Theproliferationofchannelswasstimulatedbygovernmentpoli-ciesthatlimitedtheabilityofafewnetworkstolockupprogrammingrights.Thegrowthofcabletelevision,inturn,createdacompetinginfra-structureforbroadbandcomputernetworking.Todaymostchannelsstillarenational,butacombinationofhardwareandWebinnovatorsismakingatelevisionprogramofferedinanylocalmarketinstantlyavailableglob-ally.Dealingwiththeclashofdigitaluniversalityandregulatorynational-ismwillrequirepolicychoices.In1984,telephonecompaniesthoughtofcomputernetworkingasjustanotherextensionofphonecalling,andtheyprojectedacomputernetwork,operatingatlowspeed,thatwouldberolledoutatastatelypace.ComputernetworkingandonlinecommercewouldlookvastlydifferenttodayifpublicpolicyhadnotcumulativelytiltedinfavoroftheengineersandentrepreneurswhobecamethepioneersoftheInternetarchite

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