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首页 英文版27】改变全球信息和通信市场:政治经济学的创新(麻省理工学院 2009

英文版27】改变全球信息和通信市场:政治经济学的创新(麻省理工学院 2009 .pdf

英文版27】改变全球信息和通信市场:政治经济学的创新(麻省理工…

惜花
2009-04-09 0人阅读 举报 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《英文版27】改变全球信息和通信市场:政治经济学的创新(麻省理工学院 2009 pdf》,可适用于人文社科领域

PeterFCowheyandJonathanDAronsonTransformingglobalinformaTionandCommuniCaTionmarkeTsThePoliTicaleconomyofinnovaTionTransformingGlobalInformationandCommunicationMarketsInformationRevolutionandGlobalPoliticsWilliamJDrakeandErnestJWilsonIII,editorsTheInformationRevolutionandDevelopingCountries()ErnestWilsonHumanRightsintheGlobalInformationSociety()RikkeFrankJørgensen,editorMobileCommunicationsandSociety:AGlobalPerspective()ManuelCastells,MireiaFernándezArdèvol,JackLinchuaunQiu,andArabaSeyAccessDenied:ThePracticeandPolicyofGlobalInternetFiltering()RonaldDeibert,JohnPalfrey,RafalRohozinski,andJonathanZittrain,editorsGoverningGlobalElectronicNetworks:InternationalPerspectivesonPolicyandPower()WilliamJDrakeandErnestJWilsonIII,editorsTransformingGlobalInformationandCommunicationMarkets:ThePoliticalEconomyofInnovation()PeterFCowheyandJonathanDAronson,withDonaldAbelsonTransformingGlobalInformationandCommunicationMarketsThePoliticalEconomyofInnovationPeterFCowheyandJonathanDAronsonwithDonaldAbelsonTheMITPressCambridge,MassachusettsLondon,England©MassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyAllrightsreservedSubjecttotheexceptionimmediatelyfollowing,thisbookmaynotbereproduced,inwholeorinpart,includingtheillustrations,inanyform(beyondthatcopyingpermittedbySectionsandoftheUSCopyrightLawandexceptbyreviewersforthepublicpress),withoutpermissionfromthepublishersAnonlineversionofthisworkisavailableunderaCreativeCommonsAttribution–Noncommercial–ShareAlikelicenseItcanbeaccessedathttp:irpsucsdeduglobalinfoandtelecomForinformationonquantitydiscounts,emailspecialsalesmitpressmiteduSetinStoneserifbySNPBestsetTypesetterLtd,HongKongPrintedandboundintheUnitedStatesofAmericaLibraryofCongressCataloginginPublicationDataCowhey,PeterF,–Transformingglobalinformationandcommunicationmarkets:thepoliticaleconomyofinnovationPeterFCowheyandJonathanDAronsonwithDonaldAbelsonpcm(Informationrevolutionandglobalpolitics)IncludesbibliographicalreferencesandindexISBN(hardcover:alkpaper)TechnologicalinnovationsEconomicaspectsInformationtechnologyTechnologicalinnovationsInformationtechnologyEconomicaspectsTelecommunicationTechnologicalinnovationsIAronson,JonathanDavidIIAbelson,DonaldIIITitleHCTC'dcContentsAcknowledgmentsviiIntroductionITheInflectionPointTheNextRevolutioninGlobalInformationandCommunicationMarketsTheFirstTwoICTErasModularityattheInflectionPointModularityandInnovationThePoliticalEconomyoftheInflectionPointIIATheoreticalInterludeTheorybeforePolicyIIIThreeDimensionsofGlobalMarketGovernanceTradeandtheGlobalNetworkRevolutionWirelessInfrastructureInternetGovernanceSummaryandConclusions(withDonaldAbelson)NotesIndexAcknowledgmentsWeowethanksforsuggestionsandtolerancetoalloftheusualsuspectsfamily,friends,colleagues,andresearchassistantsWeparticularlywanttorecognizeandthankthreeofourcolleaguesinICTpolicyMiltonMuellerwasacoauthoronanearlierpaperonwhichchapterdrawsheavilyDonaldAbelsonjoinedusasacoauthorofthesummaryJohnRichardswastheperfectsoundingboard,agreeinganddisagreeingwithourargumentsandprovokingustorefineourthinkingasthechapterstookshapeChaptersandalsodrawheavilyonpapersthathecoauthoredwithusAndhereadthefinalmanuscriptandprovideduswithinsightfulsuggestionsandcriticismsManypeoplesharedtheirideaswithusasubstantialnumberdidso“offtherecord”Wethankthoseanonymoussourcesandthesewhowereontherecord:DonAbelson,FrancoisBar,MichaelBorrus,CarlosCasasus,ManuelCastells,BobConn,CoryDoctorow,KennethCukier,PierredeVries,GeraldFaulhaber,EricGan,DonGips,ScottHarris,ReedHundt,DavidHytha,MimiIto,MichaelKleeman,ZhongYuanLi,PaulMaritz,CoryOndrejka,RobertPepper,PeterPreuss,NicholasPujet,HowardRheingold,GregoryRosston,SachioSemmoto,LarrySmarr,SimonWilkie,andJohnZysmanWealsothankCindyHwang,PiyooKochar,EmilieLasserson,FedericaMarchesi,andMegYoungforresearchassistanceNoneofthesefriendsandcriticsisresponsibleforanyerrorsoffactorargumentthatmayremainForfamily(Margaret,Megan,Joan,Adam,andZach)andmentors(RobertOKeohaneandinmemoryofErnstBHaas)Allofthem“inflectionpoints”inourlivesTransformingGlobalInformationandCommunicationMarketsIntroductionAsnears,theworldisinatimeofgloomandpanicWillglobalgovernanceandtheglobaleconomicordersurviveInretrospect,somesawthecollapseofthedotcombubbleasaportentofthefinancialmeltdownandthecollapseofconfidenceinthefutureIntheUnitedStatesthereisadourbipartisanconsensusthatescalatingspecialinterestpolitics,budgetdeficits,economicinsecurityinthemidstofmoreconsumption,environmentalandenergypolicygridlock,anddeepuncertaintiesaboutnationalsecuritystrategypointtointractableproblemsinthedesignandconductofpublicpolicyInothercountriesthespecificbillofcomplaintsmaydiffer,butasimilaruneasinessiswidespreadAlthoughwecangripeaswellasanyoneabouttheworld’sfollies,thisbookismoreupbeatSinceWorldWarII,aplanetstraddlinginformationandcommunicationstechnology(ICT)infrastructurehascreatedaglobalinformationeconomyataneveracceleratingpaceAradicallydifferentmodelforcompetitionandpublicpolicyforthisinfrastructurewasintroducedthatisfarsounderthanitspredecessorMoreremarkably,countriesagreedtorewritethebasicinternationalagreementsgoverningcommerceforthecommunicationsandinformationinfrastructureinawaythatmakesmoresensethantheconsensusthatwasforgedimmediatelyafterForonce,thetransformationingovernanceandtechnologyisnotjustataleoftheprosperousstatesdoingbetterThesechangesboostedtheeconomictakeoffofIndiaandChinaandotheremergingpowers,andalsobroughtamuchgreaterlevelofdigitalconnectivitytothepoorthananyonedreamedofinthelatesMuchremainstobedoneinpoorcountries,butanexpandingrecordofsuccessesnowexistsForexample,bankingdoneovermobilephones(“mbanking”)istakingofffasterindevelopingcountries,whichlackwelldevelopedfinancialmarkets,thaninwealthycountriesThisbookexplainshowandwhyacombinationoftechnologicalinnovation,marketstrategies,andpoliticalentrepreneurshippropelledtheseIntroductiondevelopments,firstintheUnitedStates,Europe,andJapanandthenintherestoftheworldPublicdebatessometimesgrowcynicalaboutbigsuccessesinpublicpolicybecauseoftheirpreoccupationwiththeflawsthatareinherenttoeventhebestofpoliciesAlthoughwenotebadnewswhenitoccurs,weemphasizethelargerstoryofaccomplishmentPolicyisimperfectbecausetoolittleisknowntounderstandallthedimensionsofanissue,becausethetoolsforinterveninginmarketslacktheprecisionofasurgeon’sscalpel,andbecausesignificantcompromiseisnecessaryinpoliticalandeconomicbargainingPoliticsisnotprettyandoftenleadstoabsurdities,butitcanalsofundamentallyredirectoutmodedcompromisesthathampermarketefficiency“Prettygood”governanceshouldbeagoal,notadisappointmentThecurrentICTinfrastructurerequiredapolicyrevolutiontointroducecompetitionintelecommunicationsmarketsBycorrectingexistinginefficiencies,thispolicyreversalcreatedaninnovationspacethathadhighreturnsinthemarketforlongdistancephoneanddatacommunicationsIncontrastwiththefewothercountriesthatquicklyfollowedtheleadoftheUnitedStates,theUSformulaeschewedmostlimitationsonthenumberofentrantsorthenumberofbusinessmodels,therebynudgingdiversebusinessstrategiesJustascrucially,thepolicy’spoliticalcoalitionpushedpolicyinawaythatfavoredexperimentationandinnovationinthecloselycomplementarymarketsofcomputingandglobalinformationsystemsforlargeusersThistiltinfavorofentrepreneursincomputernetworkingledtobroadcommercialdeploymentoftheInternetandtheWeb,toecommerce,andtothemixingandminglingofdigitalapplications(includingbroadcasting,videoconferencing,andcollaborativecomputing)But,asistypicalevenofsuccessfulpublicpolicy,theredefinedmarketwashardlyidealThepoliticalcompromisesthatenabledthepolicyshiftstillrestrictedcertainformsoffreedomofpricingandcompetitioninordertoensurestablepricingoflocalphoneservicesTheserestrictionsledtoalessthanidealmarketandtriggeredacascadeofacademiccriticisminthesandthesHowever,inourview,empoweringthecoalitionfavoringtechnologicalinnovationthroughpolicywasmorecrucialthangettingallthedetailscorrectThepolicycompromisedefinedarobustnewmarketinwhichthemostimportantoptionsfortechnologicalinnovationcouldbepursuedcompetitivelyStill,baskinginpleasureoverpastgoodjudgmentsisperilousNosuccessfulpolicycomeswithalifetimewarrantyToparaphrasethewarningsinadvertisementsformutualfunds,strongpastperformanceofapublicpolicyisnoguaranteeoffuturereturnsWebelievethattheworld’sinforIntroductionmationeconomyisataninflectionpointAproductiveshiftinthedirectionoftheworldmarketispossibleifwecanadaptnationalandglobalpublicpoliciesprudentlyTheinnovationspacethatnurturedchangeinthesandthesisbecominglessfertileThetelecommunications(“telecom”)marketissignificantlymoreefficienttoday,andthemajorpotentialforcreativepoliticaleconomicbargainsthatwouldopenmajormarketsforgrowth(throughgainsofefficiencyandinnovations)lieselsewhereCanthedomesticandglobalgovernanceoftheICTinfrastructureadapttoseizetheseopportunitiesThechaptersinpartIexplainthepoliticaleconomyofdomesticICTinfrastructurepolicyChapterprovidesabriefoverviewoftheargumentChapterestablishesabaselineforthechangebyreviewingthefirsttwoerasofICTdevelopmentitalsoexplainsthetechnologicalandpoliticaleconomicfactorsthatdrovetheshiftsintheAmericanmarketfromthesuntilChaptersandexplainhowaninflectionpointemergedafter,examinethetechnologicaldriversandchangesintheglobalsupplychainthatmaketheinflectionpointpossible,andstronglydisputepopularassumptionsaboutthetechnologicalandeconomicdimensionsofthemarket’sfutureForexample,sincethesmarketdominancefirstrestedwithATTandIBM,thenmovedontotheregionalBelloperatingcompaniesand“Wintel”(MicrosoftandIntel),andnowseemstobeheadingtowardGoogleButtheinflectionpointmeansthatthelastpassingofthetorchofmarketdominancewilltakeadifferentformChapterdescribesthechangingpoliticaleconomyofpolicyintheUnitedStates(theglobalpacesetter)Itreexaminesthepoliticalandeconomiclogicofdebatesovertelecomcompetitionpolicy,suchasthedebatesover“netneutrality,”content,andinformationmarketpoliciesPartII,atheoreticalinterlude,exploresthepoliticaleconomyofglobalICTevolutionsincethesItconsistsofasinglechapter,whichprovidesananalyticframeworkforunderstandinghowandwhyglobalmarketgovernancerulesandinstitutionschangeandwhichalsoexaminesthearchitectureofgovernancePartIIIcomprisesthreecasestudiesthattakeafinergrainedlookatglobalmarketgovernanceInchapterthegeneralrulesgoverningcompetitionandpricingofglobalnetworksareconsideredThatchapterexamineswhygovernmentsmovedasmuchauthorityovertheseissuesfromtheInternationalTelecommunicationUniontotheWorldTradeOrganizationastheydid,andtheinternationalconsequencesthataroseIntroductionChapterconsidersthespecializedworldofstandardsettingandspectrumpolicyandtherawpoliticsthatshapedtheinfrastructureofwirelesscommunicationsChapterexamineswhythechoicesaboutinstitutionaldelegationforgovernancehadimportantimplicationsfortheevolutionoftheInternetandforthecreationofnewglobalresourcesfornetworkingThecentralquestionoftheconcludingchapteris“Whatshouldbedonenext”Inlightofthepoliticaleconomyshapingpolicyoptions,howshouldprudentpolicymakersapproachglobalmarketgovernanceInthischapterwesetforthprinciplesandnormsfororganizingdecisionsandprovideexamplesofhowprogramsmightimplementthemOurgoalisnottolayoutadetailedmanifesto,butrathertosortoutfirstprinciplesforpolicyandthenbegintoimaginehowinnovationsmightturnprinciplesintomarketrealitiesTheMITPresshasagreedtomaketheentiretextofthebookavailableonlineatthetimeofpublicationSupplementarymaterialsonthewebsiteexploretopicstouchedoninthebookingreaterdepthandprovidebackgroundandexplanatorymaterialsTheonlinematerialisavailableathttp:irpsucsdeduglobalinfoandtelecomITheInflectionPointTheNextRevolutioninGlobalInformationandCommunicationMarketsThisbookfocusesontheICTinfrastructure,theintersectionofcommunicationsnetworkswiththeinfrastructureandapplicationsofinformationtechnologyThenetworkedinformationinfrastructurethatblendscomputingandcommunicationsisthelargestconstructionprojectinhumanhistoryThemoneyandtheeffortrequiredtobuildthisinfrastructuredwarfwhatwasneededtoerectthepyramidsofEgyptortheGreatWallofChinaTheinitialinvestmentcreatedahugeglobalmarketforinformationandcommunicationstechnology,estimatedtogrowtoalmost$trillionby(Figuretracksthegrowthofthehardware,software,services,andcommunicationsmarketsegmentsfromto)Aninflectionpoint,accordingtoformerIntelchairmanAndyGrove,“occurswheretheoldstrategicpicturedissolvesandgiveswaytothenew”TodayweareatanewinflectionpointfortheICTinfrastructureAllthecomponentsoftheinfrastructurearebecomingmodular,andpowerfulbroadbandnetworksarebecomingubiquitousWhenwespeakofmodularity,thinkofLegobuildingblocksofmanyshapesthatcanbeeasilymixedandmatchedbecausetheyhavestandardizedinterfacestostickthemtogetherICTtechnologyisbecomingbothmodularandradicallycheaperTheequipmentindustryknowsthispathwell,asisevidentinconsumerelectronicsButnowsoftwareandcontentarefollowingthesamepathAtthesametime,ubiquitouswiredandwirelessbroadbandcanmeldtheseICTcapabilitiestogetherintofarmorepowerfulapplications,andtheseapplicationscanescapetheboundariesofofficebuildingsandliterallybeeverywhereModularityandbroadbandmeanthatconvergenceofservicesandequipmentwilldefytraditionalmarketboundariesTelevisionprogramsseenintheUnitedStatesmayoriginateonFrenchtelevisionbroadcastsandbedeliveredtoAmericanviewersbybroadbandInternetThedistinctionsbetweentelephoneanddataservicesarerapidlydisappearingDecisionsChapteronwhethertostoredataonnetworkeddatabasesoroninexpensivehometerminalsareamatterofdesignformandfunction,becausestorageischeapandWebbrowsersmakeiteasiertoswitchbetweendataformatsPlayersinICTmarketsarescramblingtoadapttothisrapidlyemergingenvironmentManyoftheirassumptionsabouthowICTmarketsoperateassumptionsbasedoncompetitiveexperiencewillnotbeaccurateguidestothefutureMeanwhile,governmentpolicieshavesegmentedthemarketsinwaysthatdonotfitthenewrealitiesIntheabsenceofsignificantpolicyreforms,globaleconomicprospectswilldiminish,perhapsmarkedlyThischallengeraisesthecentralquestionweaddressinthisbook:HowcannationalandglobalpoliciesbestfulfillthepromiseofthisinflectionpointintheglobalICTinfrastructureWeareespeciallyconcernedwithpublicpolicybecauseitwas,andwillcontinuetobe,acriticaldriveroftheICTinfrastructure’sevolutionThismaysurprisesomeinthetechnologycommunity,becauseithasahabitofretrospectivelyassumingthatthemarchoftechnologywasinevitableButthisviewconvenientlyforgetsthemanybattlesoverpolicyandmarketsthatshapedthemarket’spathConsider,forexample,thehistoryofinternationallongdistanceservicesIn,WallStreetattorneysstillconsidereditastatussymbolto“reserve”anoperatorassistedcallfromNewYorkFigureTotalICTspending,–Source:DigitalPlanet:TheGlobalInformationEconomy(reportbyWorldInformationTechnologyandServicesAlliance),athttp:wwwwitsaorgTrillionsofUSdollarsComputerhardwareComputersoftwareComputerservicesCommunicationsTotalICTspendingTheNextRevolutiontoLondonBy,youcouldpunchafewnumbersandtherightphonewouldringthousandsofmilesaway,buthighpriceskeptinternationalcallingaluxuryItwasnotuntilthatthepriceofglobalcallingplungedtothelevelofthemassmarketTheyearlagbetweentechnologicalcapabilityandattractivepricingwasaproductofpoliciesandcorporatestrategiesthatproppedupthecostofinternationalcallingTochangepricingrequiredmajorshiftsinnationalcompetitionpolicyandinworldtraderules(Seechapter)In,televisionstillofferedonly–channels,andprogrammingwasgearedtothemedianviewerIn,morethanchannelsappealedtominutelydissectedaudiences,suchasaficionadosoftroutfishingorcookingTheproliferationofchannelswasstimulatedbygovernmentpoliciesthatlimitedtheabilityofafewnetworkstolockupprogrammingrightsThegrowthofcabletelevision,inturn,createdacompetinginfrastructureforbroadbandcomputernetworkingTodaymostchannelsstillarenational,butacombinationofhardwareandWebinnovatorsismakingatelevisionprogramofferedinanylocalmarketinstantlyavailablegloballyDealingwiththeclashofdigitaluniversalityandregulatorynationalismwillrequirepolicychoicesIn,telephonecompaniesthoughtofcomputernetworkingasjustanotherextensionofphonecalling,andtheyprojectedacomputernetwork,operatingatlowspeed,thatwouldberolledoutatastatelypaceComputernetworkingandonlinecommercewouldlookvastlydifferenttodayifpublicpolicyhadnotcumulativelytiltedinfavoroftheengineersandentrepreneurswhobecamethepioneersoftheInternetarchite

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英文版27】改变全球信息和通信市场:政治经济学的创新(麻省理工学院 2009

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