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首页 曼昆的经济学原理 第五版

曼昆的经济学原理 第五版

曼昆的经济学原理 第五版

wanderlust
2009-03-01 0人阅读 举报 0 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《曼昆的经济学原理 第五版pdf》,可适用于人文社科领域

UserSONPR:JobEFF:ch:Pg:#epsat**Fri,Nov,:AMUserSONPR:JobEFF:ch:Pg:#epsat**Fri,Nov,:AMpartIIntroductionUserSONPR:JobEFF:ch:Pg:#epsat**Fri,Nov,:AMWhatMacroeconomistsStudyWhyhavesomecountriesexperiencedrapidgrowthinincomesoverthepastcenturywhileothersstaymiredinpovertyWhydosomecountrieshavehighratesofinflationwhileothersmaintainstablepricesWhydoallcountriesexperiencerecessionsanddepressionsrecurrentperiodsoffallingincomesandrisingunemploymentandhowcangovernmentpolicyreducethefrequencyandseverityoftheseepisodesMacroeconomics,thestudyoftheeconomyasawhole,attemptstoanswertheseandmanyrelatedquestionsToappreciatetheimportanceofmacroeconomics,youneedonlyreadthenewspaperorlistentothenewsEverydayyoucanseeheadlinessuchasINCOMEGROWTHSLOWS,FEDMOVESTOCOMBATINFLATION,orSTOCKSFALLAMIDRECESSIONFEARSAlthoughthesemacroeconomiceventsmayseemabstract,theytouchallofourlivesBusinessexecutivesforecastingthedemandfortheirproductsmustguesshowfastconsumers’incomeswillgrowSeniorcitizenslivingonfixedincomeswonderhowfastpriceswillriseRecentcollegegraduateslookingforjobshopethattheeconomywillboomandthatfirmswillbehiringBecausethestateoftheeconomyaffectseveryone,macroeconomicissuesplayacentralroleinpoliticaldebateVotersareawareofhowtheeconomyisdoing,andtheyknowthatgovernmentpolicycanaffecttheeconomyinpowerfulwaysAsaresult,thepopularityoftheincumbentpresidentriseswhentheeconomyisdoingwellandfallswhenitisdoingpoorlyMacroeconomicissuesarealsoatthecenterofworldpoliticsInrecentyears,Europehasmovedtowardacommoncurrency,manyAsiancountrieshaveexperiencedfinancialturmoilandcapitalflight,andtheUnitedStateshasfinancedlargetradedeficitsbyborrowingfromabroadWhenworldleadersmeet,thesetopicsareoftenhighontheiragendasTheScienceofMacroeconomicsCHAPTERThewholeofscienceisnothingmorethantherefinementofeverydaythinkingAlbertEinsteinONE|UserSONPR:JobEFF:ch:Pg:#epsat**Fri,Nov,:AMAlthoughthejobofmakingeconomicpolicyfallstoworldleaders,thejobofexplaininghowtheeconomyasawholeworksfallstomacroeconomistsTowardthisend,macroeconomistscollectdataonincomes,prices,unemployment,andmanyothervariablesfromdifferenttimeperiodsanddifferentcountriesTheythenattempttoformulategeneraltheoriesthathelptoexplainthesedataLikeastronomersstudyingtheevolutionofstarsorbiologistsstudyingtheevolutionofspecies,macroeconomistscannotconductcontrolledexperimentsInstead,theymustmakeuseofthedatathathistorygivesthemMacroeconomistsobservethateconomiesdifferfromoneanotherandthattheychangeovertimeTheseobservationsprovideboththemotivationfordevelopingmacroeconomictheoriesandthedatafortestingthemTobesure,macroeconomicsisayoungandimperfectscienceThemacroeconomist’sabilitytopredictthefuturecourseofeconomiceventsisnobetterthanthemeteorologist’sabilitytopredictnextmonth’sweatherBut,asyouwillsee,macroeconomistsdoknowquitealotabouthowtheeconomyworksThisknowledgeisusefulbothforexplainingeconomiceventsandforformulatingeconomicpolicyEveryerahasitsowneconomicproblemsInthes,PresidentsRichardNixon,GeraldFord,andJimmyCarterallwrestledinvainwitharisingrateofinflationInthes,inflationsubsided,butPresidentsRonaldReaganandGeorgeBushpresidedoverlargefederalbudgetdeficitsInthes,withPresidentBillClintonintheOvalOffice,thebudgetdeficitshrankandeventurnedintoabudgetsurplus,butfederaltaxesasashareofnationalincomereachedahistorichighSoitwasnosurprisethatwhenPresidentGeorgeWBushmovedintotheWhiteHousein,heputataxcuthighonhisagendaThebasicprinciplesofmacroeconomicsdonotchangefromdecadetodecade,butthemacroeconomistmustapplytheseprincipleswithflexibilityandcreativitytomeetchangingcircumstancesCHAPTERTheScienceofMacroeconomics|CASESTUDYTheHistoricalPerformanceoftheUSEconomyEconomistsusemanytypesofdatatomeasuretheperformanceofaneconomyThreemacroeconomicvariablesareespeciallyimportant:realgrossdomesticproduct(GDP),theinflationrate,andtheunemploymentrateRealGDPmeasuresthetotalincomeofeveryoneintheeconomy(adjustedforthelevelofprices)TheinflationratemeasureshowfastpricesarerisingTheunemploymentratemeasuresthefractionofthelaborforcethatisoutofworkMacroeconomistsstudyhowthesevariablesaredetermined,whytheychangeovertime,andhowtheyinteractwithoneanotherFigureshowsrealGDPperpersonintheUnitedStatesTwoaspectsofthisfigurearenoteworthyFirst,realGDPgrowsovertimeRealGDPperpersonistodayaboutfivetimesitslevelinThisgrowthinaverageUserSONPR:JobEFF:ch:Pg:#epsat**Fri,Nov,:AMincomeallowsustoenjoyahigherstandardoflivingthanourgreatgrandparentsdidSecond,althoughrealGDPrisesinmostyears,thisgrowthisnotsteadyTherearerepeatedperiodsduringwhichrealGDPfalls,themostdramaticinstancebeingtheearlysSuchperiodsarecalledrecessionsiftheyaremildanddepressionsiftheyaremoresevereNotsurprisingly,periodsofdecliningincomeareassociatedwithsubstantialeconomichardshipFigureshowstheUSinflationrateYoucanseethatinflationvariessubstantiallyInthefirsthalfofthetwentiethcentury,theinflationrateaveragedonlyslightlyabovezeroPeriodsoffallingprices,calleddeflation,werealmostascommonasperiodsofrisingpricesInthepasthalfcentury,inflationhasbeenthenormTheinflationproblembecamemostsevereduringthelates,whenpricesroseatarateofalmostpercentperyearInrecentyears,|PARTIIntroductionfigureWorldWarIGreatDepressionWorldWarIIKoreanWarVietnamWarFirstoilpriceshockSecondoilpriceshock,,,,,,YearRealGDPperperson(dollars)RealGDPperPersonintheUSEconomyRealGDPmeasuresthetotalincomeofeveryoneintheeconomy,andrealGDPperpersonmeasurestheincomeoftheaveragepersonintheeconomyThisfigureshowsthatrealGDPperpersontendstogrowovertimeandthatthisnormalgrowthissometimesinterruptedbyperiodsofdecliningincome,calledrecessionsordepressionsNote:RealGDPisplottedhereonalogarithmicscaleOnsuchascale,equaldistancesontheverticalaxisrepresentequalpercentagechangesThus,thedistancebetween$,and$,(apercentchange)isthesameasthedistancebetween$,and$,(apercentchange)Source:USBureauoftheCensus(HistoricalStatisticsoftheUnitedStates:ColonialTimesto)andUSDepartmentofCommerceUserSONPR:JobEFF:ch:Pg:#epsat**Fri,Nov,:AMtheinflationratehasbeenaboutorpercentperyear,indicatingthatpriceshavebeenfairlystableFigureshowstheUSunemploymentrateNoticethatthereisalwayssomeunemploymentinoureconomyInaddition,althoughthereisnolongtermtrend,theamountofunemploymentvariesfromyeartoyearRecessionsanddepressionsareassociatedwithunusuallyhighunemploymentThehighestratesofunemploymentwerereachedduringtheGreatDepressionofthesThesethreefiguresofferaglimpseatthehistoryoftheUSeconomyInthechaptersthatfollow,wefirstdiscusshowthesevariablesaremeasuredandthendeveloptheoriestoexplainhowtheybehaveCHAPTERTheScienceofMacroeconomics|figure−−−−PercentInflationDeflationWorldWarIGreatDepressionWorldWarIIKoreanWarVietnamWarFirstoilpriceshockSecondoilpriceshockYearTheInflationRateintheUSEconomyTheinflationratemeasuresthepercentagechangeintheaveragelevelofpricesfromtheyearbeforeWhentheinflationrateisabovezero,pricesarerisingWhenitisbelowzero,pricesarefallingIftheinflationratedeclinesbutremainspositive,pricesarerisingbutataslowerrateNote:TheinflationrateismeasuredhereusingtheGDPdeflatorSource:USBureauoftheCensus(HistoricalStatisticsoftheUnitedStates:ColonialTimesto)andUSDepartmentofCommerceUserSONPR:JobEFF:ch:Pg:#epsat**Fri,Nov,:AMHowEconomistsThinkAlthougheconomistsoftenstudypoliticallychargedissues,theytrytoaddresstheseissueswithascientist’sobjectivityLikeanyscience,economicshasitsownsetoftoolsterminology,data,andawayofthinkingthatcanseemforeignandarcanetothelaymanThebestwaytobecomefamiliarwiththesetoolsistopracticeusingthem,andthisbookwillaffordyouampleopportunitytodosoTomakethesetoolslessforbidding,however,let’sdiscussafewofthemhereTheoryasModelBuildingYoungchildrenlearnmuchabouttheworldaroundthembyplayingwithtoyversionsofrealobjectsForinstance,theyoftenputtogethermodelsofcars,trains,orplanesThesemodelsarefarfromrealistic,butthemodelbuilderlearns|PARTIIntroductionfigurePercentunemployedWorldWarIGreatDepressionWorldWarIIKoreanWarVietnamWarFirstoilpriceshockSecondoilpriceshockYearTheUnemploymentRateintheUSEconomyTheunemploymentratemeasuresthepercentageofpeopleinthelaborforcewhodonothavejobsThisfigureshowsthattheeconomyalwayshassomeunemploymentandthattheamountfluctuatesfromyeartoyearSource:USBureauoftheCensus(HistoricalStatisticsoftheUnitedStates:ColonialTimesto)andUSDepartmentofCommerceUserSONPR:JobEFF:ch:Pg:#epsat**Fri,Nov,:AMalotfromthemnonethelessThemodelillustratestheessenceoftherealobjectitisdesignedtoresembleEconomistsalsousemodelstounderstandtheworld,butaneconomist’smodelismorelikelytobemadeofsymbolsandequationsthanplasticandglueEconomistsbuildtheir“toyeconomies”tohelpexplaineconomicvariables,suchasGDP,inflation,andunemploymentEconomicmodelsillustrate,ofteninmathematicalterms,therelationshipsamongthevariablesTheyareusefulbecausetheyhelpustodispensewithirrelevantdetailsandtofocusonimportantconnectionsModelshavetwokindsofvariables:endogenousvariablesandexogenousvariablesEndogenousvariablesarethosevariablesthatamodeltriestoexplainExogenousvariablesarethosevariablesthatamodeltakesasgivenThepurposeofamodelistoshowhowtheexogenousvariablesaffecttheendogenousvariablesInotherwords,asFigureillustrates,exogenousvariablescomefromoutsidethemodelandserveasthemodel’sinput,whereasendogenousvariablesaredeterminedinsidethemodelandarethemodel’soutputTomaketheseideasmoreconcrete,let’sreviewthemostcelebratedofalleconomicmodelsthemodelofsupplyanddemandImaginethataneconomistwereinterestedinfiguringoutwhatfactorsinfluencethepriceofpizzaandthequantityofpizzasoldHeorshewoulddevelopamodelthatdescribedthebehaviorofpizzabuyers,thebehaviorofpizzasellers,andtheirinteractioninthemarketforpizzaForexample,theeconomistsupposesthatthequantityofpizzademandedbyconsumersQddependsonthepriceofpizzaPandonaggregateincomeYThisrelationshipisexpressedintheequationQd=D(P,Y),whereD()representsthedemandfunctionSimilarly,theeconomistsupposesthatthequantityofpizzasuppliedbypizzeriasQsdependsonthepriceofpizzaPandonthepriceofmaterialsPm,suchascheese,tomatoes,flour,andanchoviesThisrelationshipisexpressedasQs=S(P,Pm),CHAPTERTheScienceofMacroeconomics|figureEndogenousVariablesModelExogenousVariablesHowModelsWorkModelsaresimplifiedtheoriesthatshowthekeyrelationshipsamongeconomicvariablesTheexogenousvariablesarethosethatcomefromoutsidethemodelTheendogenousvariablesarethosethatthemodelexplainsThemodelshowshowchangesintheexogenousvariablesaffecttheendogenousvariablesUserSONPR:JobEFF:ch:Pg:#epsat**Fri,Nov,:AMwhereS()representsthesupplyfunctionFinally,theeconomistassumesthatthepriceofpizzaadjuststobringthequantitysuppliedandquantitydemandedintobalance:Qs=QdThesethreeequationscomposeamodelofthemarketforpizzaTheeconomistillustratesthemodelwithasupplyanddemanddiagram,asinFigureThedemandcurveshowstherelationshipbetweenthequantityofpizzademandedandthepriceofpizza,whileholdingaggregateincomeconstantThedemandcurveslopesdownwardbecauseahigherpriceofpizzaencouragesconsumerstoswitchtootherfoodsandbuylesspizzaThesupplycurveshowstherelationshipbetweenthequantityofpizzasuppliedandthepriceofpizza,whileholdingthepriceofmaterialsconstantThesupplycurveslopesupwardbecauseahigherpriceofpizzamakessellingpizzamoreprofitable,whichencouragespizzeriastoproducemoreofitTheequilibriumforthemarketisthepriceandquantityatwhichthesupplyanddemandcurvesintersectAttheequilibriumprice,consumerschoosetobuytheamountofpizzathatpizzeriaschoosetoproduceThismodelofthepizzamarkethastwoexogenousvariablesandtwoendogenousvariablesTheexogenousvariablesareaggregateincomeandthepriceofmaterialsThemodeldoesnotattempttoexplainthembuttakesthemasgiven(perhapstobeexplainedbyanothermodel)Theendogenousvariablesarethe|PARTIIntroductionfigureSupplyDemandPriceofpizza,PQuantityofpizza,QEquilibriumpriceEquilibriumquantityMarketequilibriumTheModelofSupplyandDemandThemostfamouseconomicmodelisthatofsupplyanddemandforagoodorserviceinthiscase,pizzaThedemandcurveisadownwardslopingcurverelatingthepriceofpizzatothequantityofpizzathatconsumersdemandThesupplycurveisanupwardslopingcurverelatingthepriceofpizzatothequantityofpizzathatpizzeriassupplyThepriceofpizzaadjustsuntilthequantitysuppliedequalsthequantitydemandedThepointwherethetwocurvescrossisthemarketequilibrium,whichshowstheequilibriumpriceofpizzaandtheequilibriumquantityofpizzaUserSONPR:JobEFF:ch:Pg:#epsat**Fri,Nov,:AMpriceofpizzaandthequantityofpizzaexchangedThesearethevariablesthatthemodelattemptstoexplainThemodelcanbeusedtoshowhowachangeinoneoftheexogenousvariablesaffectsbothendogenousvariablesForexample,ifaggregateincomeincreases,thenthedemandforpizzaincreases,asinpanel(a)ofFigureThemodelshowsthatboththeequilibriumpriceandtheequilibriumquantityofpizzariseSimilarly,ifthepriceofmaterialsincreases,thenthesupplyofpizzadecreases,asinpanel(b)ofFigureThemodelshowsthatinthiscasetheequilibriumpriceofpizzarisesandtheequilibriumquantityofpizzafallsThus,themodelshowshowchangesinaggregateincomeorinthepriceofmaterialsaffectpriceandquantityinthemarketforpizzaCHAPTERTheScienceofMacroeconomics|figurePriceofpizza,PDDQQPPSQuantityofpizza,QSSQQPPDPriceofpizza,PQuantityofpizza,Q()(b)AShiftinSupplyChangesinEquilibriumInpanel(a),ariseinaggregateincomecausesthedemandforpizzatoincrease:atanygivenprice,consumersnowwanttobuymorepizzaThisisrepresentedbyarightwardshiftinthedemandcurvefromDtoDThemarketmovestothenewintersectionofsupplyanddemandTheequilibriumpricerisesfromPtoP,andtheequilibriumquantityofpizzarisesfromQtoQInpanel(b),ariseinthepriceofmaterialsdecreasesthesupplyofpizza:atanygivenprice,pizzeriasfindthatthesaleofpizzaislessprofitableandthereforechoosetoproducelesspizzaThisisrepresentedbyaleftwardshiftinthesupplycurvefromStoSThemarketmovestothenewintersectionofsupplyanddemandTheequilibriumpricerisesfromPtoP,andtheequilibriumquantityfallsfromQtoQUserSONPR:JobEFF:ch:Pg:#epsat**Fri,Nov,:AMLikeallmodels,thismodelofthepizzamarketmakessimplifyingassumptionsThemodeldoesnottakeintoaccount,forexample,thateverypizzeriaisinadifferentlocationForeachcustomer,onepizzeriaismoreconvenientthantheothers,andthuspizzeriashavesomeabilitytosettheirownpricesAlthoughthemodelassumesthatthereisasinglepriceforpizza,infacttherecouldbeadifferentpriceateverypizzeriaHowshouldwereacttothemodel’slackofrealismShouldwediscardthesimplemodelofpizzasupplyandpizzademandShouldweattempttobuildamorecomplexmodelthatallowsfordiversepizzapricesTheanswerstothesequestionsdependonourpurposeIfourgoalistoexplainhowthepriceofcheeseaffectstheaveragepriceofpizzaandtheamountofpizzasold,thenthediversityofpizzapricesisprobablynotimportantThesimplemodelofthepizzamarketdoesagoodjobofaddressingthatissueYetifourgoalistoexplainwhytownswiththreepizzeriashavelowerpizzapricesthantownswithonepizzeria,thesimplemodelislessuseful|PARTIIntroductionFYIAlleconomicmodelsexpressrelationshipsamongeconomicvariablesOften,theserelationshipsareexpressedasfunctionsAfunctionisamathematicalconceptthatshowshowonevariabledependsonasetofothervariablesForexample,inthemodelofthepizzamarket,wesaidthatthequantityofpizzademandeddependsonthepriceofpizzaandonaggregateincomeToexpressthis,weusefunctionalnotationtowriteQd=D(P,Y)ThisequationsaysthatthequantityofpizzademandedQdisafunctionofthepriceofpizzaPandaggregateincomeYInfunctionalnotation,thevariableprecedingtheparenthesesdenotesthefunctionInthiscase,D()isthefunctionexpressinghowthevariablesinparenthesesdeterminethequantityofpizzademandedIfweknewmoreaboutthepizzamarket,wecouldgiveanumericalformulaforthequantityofpizzademandedWemightbeabletowriteQd=−PYUsingFunctionstoExpressRelationshipsAmongVariablesInthiscase,thedemandfunctionisD(P,Y)=−PYForanypriceofpizzaandaggregateincome,thisfunctiongivesthecorrespondingquant

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  • 221.4.190.161 曼昆_宏观经济学原理_第五版(英文彩版)

    2010-04-06 06:22:49

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