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首页 世界银行的研究报告《中国污染的负担》(cost of pollution in china)

世界银行的研究报告《中国污染的负担》(cost of pollution in china)

世界银行的研究报告《中国污染的负担》(cost of poll…

馨儿
2009-02-18 0人阅读 举报 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《世界银行的研究报告《中国污染的负担》(cost of pollution in china)pdf》,可适用于高等教育领域

COSTOFPOLLUTIONINCHINAECONOMICESTIMATESOFPHYSICALDAMAGESCONFERENCEEDITIONTHEGOVERNMENTOFTHEPEOPLE’SREPUBLICOFCHINACOSTOFPOLLUTIONINCHINATHEWORLDBANKTHEWORLDBANKTheStateEnvironmentalProtectionAdministrationXizhimenNanxiaojie,Beijing,PRChinaTel:()Fax:()wwwsepagovcnRuralDevelopment,NaturalResourcesandEnvironmentManagementUnit,EastAsiaandPacificRegion,TheWorldBankHStreet,NW,WashingtonDC,USATel:()Fax:()wwwworldbankorgeapenvironmentTheWorldBankOffice,BeijingthFloor,ChinaWorldTowerNoJianguomenwaiAvenueBeijing,PRChinaTel:()Fax:()wwwworldbankorgcnEnvironmentalandSocialDevelopmentUnitEastAsiaPacificRegionPh:Fax:email:jnygardworldbankorgCOSTOFPOLLUTIONINCHINAECONOMICESTIMATESOFPHYSICALDAMAGESTheWorldBankStateEnvironmentalProtectionAdministration,PRChinaThispublicationisavailableonlineatwwwworldbankorgeapenvironmentFrontcoverphotos:JohnDLiuFromthefilm“AGreenCall”preparedbytheEnvironmentalEducationMediaProjectinBeijingincooperationwiththeWorldBankCoverdesign:CircleGraphics,JosteinNygardRuralDevelopment,NaturalResourcesandEnvironmentManagementUnitEastAsiaandPacificRegionTheWorldBankWashington,DCFebruary,ThisvolumeisaproductofanexpertteamfromChina,internationalexpertsfromvariouscountriesandthestaffoftheWorldBankThefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankofthegovernmentstheyrepresentTheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthisworkTheboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundariesThematerialinthispublicationiscopyrightedCopyingandortransmittingportionsofallofthisworkwithoutpermissionmaybeaviolationofapplicablelawTheWorldBankencouragesdisseminationofitsworkandwillnormallygrantpermissiontoreproduceportionsoftheworkpromptlyForpermissiontophotocopyingorreprintanypartofthiswork,pleasesendarequestwithcompleteinformationtotheCopyrightClearanceCenter,Inc,RosewoodDrive,Danvers,MA,USA,telephone,fax,wwwcopyrightcomAllotherqueriesonrightsandlicenses,includingsubsidiaryrights,shouldbeaddressedtotheOfficeofthePublisher,TheWorldBank,HStreetNW,Washington,DC,USA,fax,emailpubrightsworldbankorgCHINA–ENVIRONMENTALCOSTOFPOLLUTIONiiiACKNOWLEDGMENTSvABBREVIATIONSANDACRONYMSviiFOREWORDixEXECUTIVESUMMARYxiOverviewHealthImpactsofAmbientAirPollutionHealthImpactsofWaterPollutionValuationofEnvironmentalHealthRisksNonHealthImpactsofWaterPollutionNonHealthImpactsofAirPollutionTableofContentsThisReportistheresultofacollaborativeresearcheffortbyajointChineseandinternationalexpertteambeingcontractedbytheWorldBankInBeijing,theoverallteamwasleadbyGuoXiaomin,asenioradvisortotheStateEnvironmentalProtectionAdministration(SEPA)HisteamincludedYuFangfromtheChinaAcademyofEnvironmentalPlanning(CAEP),whohashandledtheoveralltechnicalcoordination,ZhouGuomeicoordinatedtheValuationofEnvironmentalHealthRisk(VEHR)studytogetherwithZhangKai,ZhouJunandWuYupingfromthePolicyResearchCenterforEnvironmentEconomyPanXiaochuanattheMedicalCollegeofPekingUniversityleadateamondoseresponsefunctiondevelopment,whichincludedWangLihua,andJiangJinhuaMonitoringdatawasprovidedbytheChinaNationalMonitoringCentrebyZhuoJianping,LingLixin,FuDeqingandWuHuaiminZhaoYaominghasparticipatedfromtheMinistryofAgricultureAteamfromtheWaterResourcesandHydropowerPlanningandDesignInstituteoftheMinistryofWaterResources(MWR)leadbyLiYuanyuan,whichalsoincludedZhouZhiwei,CaoJiantingandZhangweiprovidedassistanceonwaterscarcitysubjectsGaoJunandXuLingfromtheMinistryofHealth(MoH)workedonstatisticalhealthdataAteamfromtheRuralWaterSupplyCentralDiseaseControl(CDC)leadbyFanFuchengandTaoYongprovidedassistanceonparticularlydrinkingwaterandpartlyhealthrelateddataInShanghai,ateamleadbyProfPengXizheattheFudanUniversity,includedChenYan,TianWenhuaandChengYuanInChongqing,ateamleadbyAssProfChenGangcaiattheChongqingAcademyofEnvironmentalScienceincludedWangFei,RanTao,ZhouZhien,LiuLanyu,andChenDeronginadditiontoYangXioalin,XiangXinzhiandQinLeifromChongqingCDCandTangGuilfromChongqingMoHInternationalexpertshaveincludedHaakonVennemoandHenrikLindhjem(ECON),KristinAunanandHansMartinSeip(CICERO),AlanKrupnick,SandyHoffmannandMichaelMcWilliams(RFF),BjornLarsenandRamonOrtiz(independentconsultants)AttheWorldBank,theprojectwascoordinatedbyJosteinNygard,taskteamleader(EASRE)undertheoverallsupervisionofMagdaLovei(EASOP)SubstantiveinputswereprovidedbyMaureenCropper(DEC),TamerSamahRabie(ECSHD),whiletechnicalsupportwasprovidedbyMarijaKuzmanovicandAndrewMurray(EASENEASRE)ThecurrentreporthasmainlybewrittenbyMaureenCropper,TamerRabie,HaakonVenCHINA–ENVIRONMENTALCOSTOFPOLLUTIONvAcknowledgmentsnemo,KristinAunan,HansMartinSeip,YuFang,GuoXiaomingandJosteinNygard,whiletheextensiveChineseexpertteamhasmainlybeenwritingtheprogressandbackgroundreportsthatthisreportbuildsuponTheRFF,ShanghaiandChongqingteamshavebeenwritingthe“WillingnesstoPayforReducedMortalityRiskReductioninShanghaiandChongqing”study,whichisalsobeingpublishedasaseparateWorldBankdiscussionpaperreportMainlybaseduponworkbyBjornLarsen,aseparatediscussionpaperreport“ChinaHealthEffectsofIndoorAirPollution”isalsobeingpublishedPeerreviewersincludedChrisNielsen(HarvardUniversity),HaoJiming(TsinghuaUniversity),KseniyaLvovsky(WorldBank,SASES),RitaKlees(WorldBank,ENV),andAnilMarkandy(ECSSD)AdditionalreviewsandcommentswereprovidedbyDavidDollar,BertHofmanandAndresLiebenthal(WorldBank,Beijing),MariaTeresaSerra(EASESEAPVP)JulienLabonneandJianXie(EASESEASRE),AnjaliAcharyaandGiovanniRuta(ENV)andCharlesEDiLeva(LEGEN)CoordinationofthestudywithinSEPA,hasbeenmadebytheirForeignEconomicCooperationOffice(FECO)withWangXinandXieYongmingPersonnelwithinSEPA’sPlanningandFinance,PollutionControlandScienceandTechnologydepartmentsinadditionMoHpersonnelhavereviewedthereportextensivelyThereportwaseditedbyRobertLivernash,consultantCircleGraphicsdesignedandmanageddesktoppingProductionwassupervisedbyJaimeAlvarezPhotosprovidedbyJohnLiu,theEnvironmentalEducationMediaProject,fromaWorldBankcontractedfilm“AGreenCall”ChinesetranslationwasprovidedbythetranslationdeskatSEPAsDepartmentofInternationalCooperationFinally,wewouldliketoexpressourgratitudetotheGovernmentofNorwayandFinland,whichprovidedthemaintrustfunds(TFESSD)tocarryoutthestudyThestudywasalsosupportedbytheWorldBank’sownfundingACKNOWLEDGMENTSCHINA–ENVIRONMENTALCOSTOFPOLLUTIONviCHINA–ENVIRONMENTALCOSTOFPOLLUTIONviiACSAmericanCancerSocietyAHCAdjustedHumanCapitalBODBiologicalOxygenDemandBOHBureauofHealth(atlocallevels)CAEPChineseAcademyforEnvironmentalPlanningCAESChongqingAcademyofEnvironmentalSciencesCDCCenterforDiseaseControlandPreventionCECMChineseEnvironmentalCostModelCEVDCerebrovascularDiseaseCNHSChinaNationalHealthSurveyCOCarbonMonoxideCODChemicalOxygenDemandCOICostofIllnessCOPDChronicObstructivePulmonaryDiseaseCSMIClearWaterandSewageMixedIrrigationCVContingentValuationCVDCardiovascularDiseaseDALYDisabilityAdjustedLifeYearDCDichotomousChoiceMethodDSPDiseaseSurveillancePointECMEnvironmentalCostModelEUEuropeanUnionEVEmergencyVisitGDPGrossDomesticProductGIOVGrossIndustrialOutputValueHEIHealthEffectsInstituteHHHouseholdICDInternationalClassificationofDiseaseAbbreviationsandAcronymsIWQIIntegratedWaterQualityIndexMoAMinistryofAgricultureMoHMinistryofHealthMWRMinistryofWaterResourcesNAPAPNationalAcidPrecipitationAssessmentProgramNBSNationalBureauofStatisticsNOxNitrogenOxidesOOzoneOPVOutpatientVisitOROddsRatioPCPaymentCardMethodPMParticulateMatterPMParticulateMatterofLessthanμmindiameterPPPPurchasingPowerParityPSIPureSewageIrrigationQALYQualityAdjustedLifeYearRDRespiratoryDiseaseRFFResourcesfortheFutureRMBChineseCurrency,YuanRRRelativeRiskSCEStandardCoalEquivalentSEPAStateEnvironmentalProtectionAdministrationSOSulphurDioxideTSPTotalSuspendedParticulatesTVEsTownandVillageEnterprisesUNEPUnitedNationsEnvironmentalProgrammeUSEPAUnitedStatesEnvironmentalProtectionAgencyVEHRValuationofEnvironmentalHealthRiskVSLValueofStatisticalLifeWHOWorldHealthOrganizationWTPWillingnesstoPayABBREVIATIONSANDACRONYMSCHINA–ENVIRONMENTALCOSTOFPOLLUTIONviiiThisisadrafteditionoftheCostofPollutioninChina:EconomicEstimatesofPhysicalDamagesreport,whichwillbepresentedattheinternationalconferenceonSustainableDevelopmentinBeijing,ChinaonMarch,ThepurposeofthisconferenceeditionistopresentthefindingsofthestudiesundertakeninChinaoverthepastaboutyearsaswellastoobtainrelevantcommentsandfeedbackfromtheconferenceparticipantsthatcouldbeincludedinthefinaleditionofthereportThisreporttracesitsoriginto,whentheWorldBankpublishedtheChina–ClearWaterBlueSkiesreportThisworkunderscoredtheeconomicimplicationsofenvironmentaldegradationbyestimatingthatthecostofairandwaterpollutioninChinaisbetweenandpercentofGDPFollowingthesefindings,theChinesegovernmentrequestedtheWorldBanktocollaboratewithanumberofChineseandinternationalresearchinstitutestodevelopanenvironmentalcostmodel(ECM)usingmethodologiesspecifictotheChinacontextThisworkincludesanindepthreviewofinternationalECMstudies,anddevelopmentandapplicationofnewmethodologies(andsoftware)forannualestimationsofwaterandairpollutioninChinaatbothcentralandlocallevelsTheaimofthisworkistoincreaseawarenessoftheeconomicimpactsofairandwaterpollutioninChina,toproviderelevantpolicyinformationtodecisionmakersandtoenabletheChinesegovernmenttomakeoptimalresourceallocationsforenvironmentalprotectionPriortothepublicationofthisreport,comprehensivecommentshavebeenreceivedbyboththeChineseGovernment,particularlytheStateEnvironmentalProtectionAdministration(SEPA)andindependentChineseandNonChinesereviewersSomeofthesubjectsthathavebeencarefullydevelopedduringthecourseofimplementation,includingcertainphysicalimpactestimationsaswellaseconomiccostcalculationsatlocallevelshavebeenleftoutofthisconferenceeditionduetostillsomeuncertaintiesaboutcalculationmethodsanditsapplicationHowtopossiblymakeuseofthesematerialswillbecontinuouslyworkedonduringandaftertheconferenceMoreover,thecomprehensivereferencematerialthathasbeendevelopedbyjointChineseandInternationalexpertteam(includingprogressreportsandvariousbackgroundreports),isgoingtobeattachedinaCDROMinthefinaleditionWishyougoodreadingofthiseditionandlookingforwardtoreceivingyourcommentsReportAuthorsFebruaryCHINA–ENVIRONMENTALCOSTOFPOLLUTIONixForewordtotheConferenceEditionxiCHINA–ENVIRONMENTALCOSTOFPOLLUTIONInrecentdecades,Chinahasachievedrapideconomicgrowth,industrialization,andurbanizationAnnualincreasesinGDPoftopercenthaveliftedsomemillionpeopleoutofdirepovertyBetweenand,ChinamovedupfromarankofthtondontheWorldDevelopmentIndexWithfurthereconomicgrowth,mostoftheremainingmillionpeoplelivingbelowonedollarperdaymaysoonescapefrompovertyAlthoughtechnologicalchange,urbanization,andChina’shighsavingsratesuggestthatcontinuedrapidgrowthisfeasible,theresourcesthatsuchgrowthdemandsandtheenvironmentalpressuresitbringshaveraisedgraveconcernsaboutthelongtermsustainabilityandhiddencostsofgrowthManyoftheseconcernsareassociatedwiththeimpactsofairandwaterpollutionRapidEconomicGrowthHasHadPositiveEnvironmentalImpactsbutAlsoCreatedNewEnvironmentalChallengesConsideringChina’sstrongeconomicgrowthoverthelast–years,thereisnodoubtthatithashadpositiveimpactsontheenvironmentAlongsideeconomicgrowth,technologyimprovementsoverthisperiodhavecreatedmuchimprovedresourceutilizationEnergyefficiencyhasimproveddrasticallyalmostthreetimesbetterutilizationofenergyresourcesin–comparedtoAsaresultofthechangingindustrialstructure,theapplicationofcleanerandmoreenergyefficienttechnologies,andpollutioncontrolefforts,ambientconcentrationsofparticulatematter(PM)andsulfurdioxide(SO)incitieshavegraduallydecreasedoverthelastyearsImplementationofenvironmentalpollutioncontrolpoliciesparticularlycommandandcontrolmeasures,butalsoeconomicandvoluntarilymeasureshavecontributedsubstantiallytolevelingofforevenreducingpollutionloads,particularlyincertaintargetedindustrialsectorsAtthesametime,newenvironmentalchallengeshavebeencreatedFollowingaperiodofstagnationinenergyuseduringthelates,totalenergyconsumptioninChinahasincreasedpercentbetweenand,withcoalconsumptionincreasingbypercent,indicatinganincreasinglyenergyintensiveeconomyoverthelastfewyearsMoreover,betweenand,airpollutionemissionshaveremainedconstantor,insomeinstances,haveincreasedTheassessmentattheendofthetenthfiveyearplan(–)recentlyconcludedthatChina’semissionsofSOandsootwererespectivelypercentandpercenthigherthanthetargetsetatthebeginningoftheplanChinaisnowthelargestsourceofSOemissionsintheworldRecenttrendsinenergyconsumption,particularlyincreasedcoaluse,provideapossibleexplanationfortheincreaseinSOemissionsWaterpollutionisalsoacauseforseriousconcernIntheperiodbetweenand,onaverageaboutpercentofthesevenmainriversinChinacontainedwaterdeemedunsafeforhumanconsumptionThisrepreExecutiveSummary�sentsanearlypercentincreasesincetheearlysThemostpollutedriversoccurredinthenortheastinareasofhighpopulationdensityThetrendsinsurfacewaterqualityfromtosuggestthatqualityisworseninginthemainriversystemsintheNorth,whileimprovingslightlyintheSouthThismaypartlybetheresultofrapidurbanization(theurbanpopulationincreasedbymillioncountrywidefromto),whichcausedCODloadsfromurbanresidentstoincreasesubstantiallyand,hence,surpasstheplannedtargetsforRapidindustrializationprobablyalsoplaysapartNorthernChinaBearsaDoubleBurdenfromAirandWaterPollutionWhilethemostpopulouspartsofChinaalsohavethehighestnumberofpeopleexposedtoairpollution,itisstrikingthattheareaswiththehighestpercapitaexposurearealmostalllocatedinnorthernChina(Qinghai,Ningxia,Beijing,Tianjin,Shaanxi,andShanxi)TheexceptionisHunan,whichislocatedintheSouthInFigure,thecoloroftheprovincesonthemapshowsthepercentageoftheurbanpopulationexposedtoairpollution,whilethebarsindicatetheabsolutenumberofpeopleexposedSimilarly,themostseverelypollutedwaterbasinsoftheLiao,Hai,Huai,andSonghuariversarealsolocatedinnorthernChina(seefigureforsurfacewaterquality)NorthChinaalsohasseriouswaterscarcityproblemsSomeprovincesincludingBeijing,Shanxi,Ningxia,Tianjin,andJiangsuseemtofacethedoubleburdenofexposuretohighlevelsofbothairandwaterpollutionHowever,whileairpollutionlevelsmaybedirectlyassociatedwithpopulationEXECUTIVESUMMARYCHINA–ENVIRONMENTALCOSTOFPOLLUTIONxiiXinjiangNeimengQinghaiGansuSichuanJilinYunnanHeilongjiangHebeiHubeiHunanShaanxiHenanGuangxiShanxiAnhuiJiangxiGuizhouLiaoningFujianShandongGuangdongJiangsuZhejiangChongqingNingxiaHainanBeijingTianjinShanghaiPollutionExposure,PopulationExposedtoPollutionFIGUREUrbanPopulationExposedtoPMlevels,exposure,thesamedoesnotnecessarilyapplytosurfacewaterpollutionThisisbecausepopulationsgenerallyhavedifferentdrinkingwatersourcesthatmayallowthemtoescapehighlevelsofcontaminationAboutmillionpeopleinruralChinarelyprimarilyonsurfacewaterastheirmainsourceofdrinkingwaterSurfacewaterasadrinkingwatersourceismorevulnerabletopossiblepollutioncomparedtoother,saferdrinkingsourcesAirandWaterPollutionhaveSevereHealthImpactsAccordingtoconservativeestimates,theeconomicburdenofprematuremortalityandmorbidityassociatedwithairpollutionwasbillionyuanin,orpercentofGDPThisassumesthatprematuredeathsarevaluedusingthepresentvalueofpercapitaGDPovertheremainderoftheindividual’slifetimeIfaprematuredeathisvaluedusingavalueofastatisticallifeofmillionyuan,reflectingpeople’swillingnesstopaytoavoidmortalityrisks,thedamagesassociatedwithairpollutionarepercentofGDPThesefindingsdifferintwoimportantwaysfrompreviousstudiesoftheburdenofoutdoorairpollutioninChinaFirst,theyarebasedonChineseexposureresponsefunctions,aswellasontheinternationalliteratureandsecond,theyarecomputedforindividualcitiesandprovincesPreviousestimatesbyWHO(Cohenetal)werebasedontheassumptionthatincreasesinPMbeyond�gmofPMcausednoadditionalhealthdamage(InthebasecaseconsideredbyWHO,EXECUTIVESUMMARYCHINA–ENVIRONMENTALCOSTOFPOLLUTIONxiiiFIGUREWaterQualityLevels,relativeriskdoesnotincreasebeyond�gmofPM,whichis

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世界银行的研究报告《中国污染的负担》(cost of pollution in china)

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