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首页 全球风险报告2009

全球风险报告2009

全球风险报告2009

馨儿
2009-02-04 0人阅读 举报 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《全球风险报告2009pdf》,可适用于高等教育领域

WorldEconomicForumJanuaryGlobalRisksAGlobalRiskNetworkReportCOMMITTEDTOIMPROVINGTHESTATEOFTHEWORLDAWorldEconomicForumReportincollaborationwithCitigroupMarshMcLennanCompanies(MMC)SwissReWhartonSchoolRiskCenterZurichFinancialServicesThisworkwaspreparedbytheGlobalRiskNetworkoftheWorldEconomicForumWorldEconomicForumroutedelaCapiteCHColognyGenevaSwitzerlandTel:()Fax:()Email:globalrisksweforumorgwwwweforumorg©WorldEconomicForumAllrightsreservedNopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystemISBN:REF:Theinformationinthisreport,oronwhichthisreportisbased,hasbeenobtainedfromsourcesthattheauthorsbelievetobereliableandaccurateHowever,ithasnotbeenindependentlyverifiedandnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,ismadeastotheaccuracyorcompletenessofanyinformationobtainedfromthirdpartiesInaddition,thestatementsinthisreportmayprovidecurrentexpectationsoffutureeventsbasedoncertainassumptionsandincludeanystatementthatdoesnotdirectlyrelatetoahistoricalfactoracurrentfactThesestatementsinvolveknownandunknownrisks,uncertaintiesandotherfactorswhicharenotexhaustiveThecompaniescontributingtothisreportoperateinacontinuallychangingenvironmentandnewrisksemergecontinuallyReadersarecautionednottoplaceunduerelianceonthesestatementsThecompaniescontributingtothisreportundertakenoobligationtopubliclyreviseorupdateanystatements,whetherasaresultofnewinformation,futureeventsorotherwiseandtheyshallinnoeventbeliableforanylossordamagearisinginconnectionwiththeuseoftheinformationinthisreportFigure:GlobalRisksLandscape:LikelihoodwithSeveritybyEconomicLossLikelihoodbelowabovebillionbillionbillionbilliontrillionmorethantrillionSeverity(inUS$)BasedonantheassessmentofrisksoverayeartimehorizonbytheGlobalRiskNetworkKey:Boxesindicatechangesincelastyear’sassessmentNewriskforDecreasedIncreasedStableLikelihoodSeveritySource:WorldEconomicForumECONOMICFoodpricevolatilityOilandgaspricespikeMajorfallinUS$SlowingChineseeconomy()FiscalcrisesAssetpricecollapseRetrenchmentfromglobalization(developed)Retrenchmentfromglobalization(emerging)RegulationcostUnderinvestmentininfrastructureGEOPOLITICALInternationalterrorismCollapseofNPTUSIranconflictUSDPRKconflictAfghanistaninstabilityTransnationalcrimeandcorruptionIsraelPalestineconflictViolenceinIraqGlobalgovernancegapsENVIRONMENTALExtremeclimatechangerelatedweatherDroughtsanddesertificationLossoffreshwaterNatCat:CycloneNatCat:EarthquakeNatCat:InlandfloodingNatCat:CoastalfloodingAirpollutionBiodiversitylossSOCIETALPandemicInfectiousdiseaseChronicdiseaseLiabilityregimesMigrationTECHNOLOGICALCIIbreakdownEmergenceofnanotechnologyrisksDatafraudloss|GlobalRisksPrefaceExecutiveSummaryTheGlobalRisksLandscapeTheFinancialCrisisandGlobalRisksResourceChallenges,SustainabilityandCompetitionGlobalGovernance:aKeytoGlobalStabilityandSustainabilityAppendix:TheRiskAssessmentandRiskBarometerAppendix:GlobalRisksReport:ProcessandDefinitionContributorsandAcknowledgementsContentsGlobalRisksJan:GlobalRisks:PageConclusionPreface|GlobalRiskswillbeayearoflearningthelessonsofthefinancialcrisisayearwhereitsreachintermsoftimeandscopebecomesmoreevidentayearthatcallsforanewfinancialarchitecturetobeshapedAtthesametime,itwillbeayearthatwilltesttheresolveandwillingnessofworldleaderstocollaborateandtakeactiontomovebeyondthiscrisisTheglobalriskslandscapeisacrowdedoneandthewindowofopportunitywehavetoaddresssomeofthelargestchallengesofourtimeisnarrowGlobalRiskslooksattherisks,economicandother,thatcouldemergeasthefinancialcrisiscontinuestounfoldThereportconsiderstheimplicationsofasuddendropinChina’sgrowthtoorbelowdeterioratingfiscalpositionsandfurtherassetpricefallsGiventhevulnerablestateoftheglobaleconomy,andasdeleveragingcontinuesacrossthefinancialsystem,furthershockscouldhavesevereandfarreachingconsequencesThedegreetowhichtheworldhaslostconfidenceinitsinstitutionsandsystemsisseriousWithoutconfidencewecouldfaceaprotractedandpotentiallycalamitous,downwardspiralGovernments,centralbanksandregulatorsmustavertthisbutmustalsoavoidinadvertentlysowingtheseedsoffuturecrisesTheyneedtorestoreconfidenceatalllevelstoconsumersandhouseowners,toinvestors,andinandamongfinancialinstitutionsThiscrisisexposedtheweaknessesofgovernancesystemsGoodgovernanceandleadershipwillhelprebuildconfidence,enablealignmentacrossregionsandindustries,andencouragecollaborationWithworldattentionfocusedontheimmediateeconomicchallenges,thisreportalsowarnsagainstlosingsightoflongertermrisksNowisthetimeforleaderstolookaheadRisksrelatedtoclimatechange,unresolvedresourceissuesandpotentiallymoredefensiveandprotectioniststancesbystatescouldleadtoaconflationoftheseglobalriskswithsignificantsocietalandeconomiccostsAgain,bettergovernanceatcorporate,countryandgloballevelisnecessarytoprovidetheframeworksforstableinternationalrelations,andforstatesandcorporationstocreategreatercertaintyandtrustSuccessfulmitigationofglobalriskswillonlybepossibleonceconfidenceinglobalgovernanceinstitutionsisrestored,startingbyensuringthattheyareadaptedtotoday’schallengesandrevisingtheirmandateandpowersaccordinglyTheymustbeabletofunctioninaproactiveandcoordinatedfashion,fosteringcooperationacrossallregions,industriesandstakeholdergroupsGlobalRisksbuildsontheinsightandexperienceoftheForum’sunparallelednetworkofpoliticalandbusinessleaders,expertsandacademicsWearegratefulforthecontinuedcommitmentofourpartnersonthisreport:Citigroup,MarshMcLennanCompanies(MMC),SwissRe,TheWhartonSchoolRiskCenterandZurichFinancialServicesThisreporttakesalongtermapproachtorisk,lookingtenyearsahead,whilenotforgettingthatdecisionmakersmustrespondtothecrisistodaywiththeconsequencesthatcarriesfortheircountriesandenterprisesAboveall,GlobalRisksprovidesaframeworkforleaderstothinkaboutriskandhowtherisksthattheyfaceintheshorttermintheirregionandbusinesslinktothelongertermrisks,withglobalimplicationsWhilethemitigationoftherisksconsideredherewilldemandleadership,commitmentandresourcesacrossallstakeholdergroups,theymayalsoyieldopportunitiesandstrengthenthetiesbetweendifferentpartsoftheworldhasproventheextenttowhichtheworldissubjecttoglobalrisksletbetheyearwheretheworldfindsacommonagendatobeginmitigatingtheirimpactKlausSchwabFounderandExecutiveChairmanWorldEconomicForumGlobalRisksJan:GlobalRisks:PageExecutiveSummary|GlobalRiskswasanhistoricyearFinancialdisruptionstriggeredbydeclininghousepricesintheUSgrewintoaglobalcreditcrisisofsystemicproportionsBythesecondhalfoftheyear,mostadvancedeconomieshadenteredarecessionThedownturnspilledoverintoemergingmarkets,increasingthelikelihoodofaglobalcontractioninAlthoughtheworldhasseenseveralfinancialcrises,thisonediffersintworespectsFirst,ithasdemonstratedjusthowtightlyinterconnectedglobalizationhasmadetheworldanditssystemsSecond,thiscrisiswasdrivenbydevelopedeconomiesusingunprecedentedlevelsofdebtandleveragethroughoutthefinancialsystemThus,risksthathadbeenidentifiedinthepasttwoeditionsofthisreport–theriskofaglobalmeltdowninassetprices()andthewidespreadmispricingofriskandthepotentialimplicationsofsystemicfinancialrisk()–havematerializedwithhugeconsequencesThefocusofthereportThisyear’sreportfocusesontheeffectsoftheglobalfinancialcrisisanditsimplicationsforthoserisksthatcametotheforeoftheGlobalRiskNetworkassessmentforTheyinclude:asuddenfurtherdropinChina’sgrowthtoorbelowdeterioratingfiscalpositionsfurtherassetpricefallsincreasingresourcerelatedrisksduetoclimatechangeandthefailureofglobalgovernancetomitigateglobalrisksThehighlyinterconnectednatureoftheserisksmeansthattheirimpactistrulyglobalTheeconomicoutlookforisagrimoneformosteconomiesmarketsremainvolatile,liquidityhasnotreturned,unemploymentisrising,andconsumerandbusinessconfidencehasfallentorecordlowsInthisclimate,risksbecomeevenmorepotentintheirimpactand,asdiscussedinpreviousreports,thetendencytowardspanicandshorttermresponsesaremorepronouncedThisreportexploresthedangersofmanagingoutofthiscrisis,withoutconsideringthebroader,longtermconsequencesoftoday’sdecisionsItalsostressestheneedforadetermined,globalfocusonbalancingtheresponsetotheimmediatechallengeswithaconcertedefforttomitigatelongertermrisks,notleastthoserelatingtoclimatechangeandresourcesThereportalsoconsiderstheimpactofthefinancialcrisisandeconomicenvironmentonafewrisksintroducedforthefirsttimeinandothersthattheGlobalRiskNetworkhastrackedforseveralyearsManyoftheseareparticularlypertinenttothecurrentenvironmentLinkingtothediscussionontheresponsetothefinancialcrisis,theriskofoverregulationandlackofacoordinatedapproachtoregulationatagloballevelmakesitsfirstappearanceintheassessmentThesameistrueofunderinvestmentininfrastructure,ariskthatishighlyinterconnectedwithanumberofeconomic,environmentalandsocietalrisksIntermsofbotheconomicimpactandlossoflife,healthrisks,includingchronicandinfectiousdiseases,aswellastheongoingriskofamajorpandemic,continuetodominateConflicts,inparticularintrastateconflict,andterrorismcontinuetomarthelivesofmillionsworldwideandtheireffectsreachfarbeyondthecoststothepopulationstheydirectlytouchGlobalRisksoffersanassessmentofhowthefocusrisksinterconnectwithothersandhowtheymayevolveovertimeItalsoraisesmanyquestionsabouttheriskofignoringotherpotentialcriseswhendealingwithacurrentoneTheeventsofunderscoredtheimportanceoftwomajorideasbehindtheworkoftheGlobalRiskNetwork:globalriskscanonlybeunderstoodwhenexploredinthecontextoftheirinterlinkageswithotherrisksandnoonegroupactingalonecanmitigatethemeffectivelyTheseaspectsofglobalrisksarealsowhytheyposesuchachallengeforpolicymakersandbusinessleadersalikeHowever,astheytrytoresolvethissituationasquicklyaspossible,leadersmustbemindfulofthelongtermimplicationsoftoday’sdecisionsGlobalRisksJan:GlobalRisks:PageTheGlobalRisksLandscape|GlobalRisksHowtheglobalriskslandscapehasevolvedsincelastyearThefollowingriskscametotheforeintheassessmentfor,bothintermsoflikelihoodandseverityandthedegreetowhichtheyare“pivotal”risks,iethattheyareatthenexusofmanyrisksDeterioratingfiscalpositionsThedeteriorationoffiscalbalancesinseveralmajorGcountriesandothereconomieswasjudgedasincreasinginbothlikelihoodandseverityFromtheinterconnectionsmapitcanbeseenthatthisriskislinkedtoanumberofothercentraleconomic,societalandeconomicrisks:retrenchmentfromglobalization,afallintheUSdollar,furtherassetpricedeclines,theriseofchronicdiseasesandunderinvestmentinpublicinfrastructureNodesize:denotesseverity,Nodecolours:red–economicsdarkgreen–geopoliticslightgreen–environmentalpurple–technologyblue–societyLines:linethicknessdenotesthestrengthoftheinterlinkageThedirectionofathickerlinesegmentindicateswhenoneriskisthestrongerintherelationshipProximity:themapshowsrisksthataretightlyinterlinkedtomanyotherrisksasclosertooneanotherChinahardlandingThoughthemostrecentWorldBankforecast(November)suggestsChinawillstillachievegrowthofin,giventheimportanceofChinaintermsofitspotentialtobeasourceofglobalgrowthandgivenitsmassivenetcreditorpositionmainlywithrespecttotheUS,aslowdowntoorbelowinChina’sgrowthratewouldhavesignificantimpactonthealreadyweakglobaleconomyThisriskishighlyconnectedtoafallintheUSdollar,toenergyandfoodpricerisks,andtohealthrisksAssetpricecollapseThoughtheeffectsofsharplydecliningassetpricesarealreadyplayingout,theassessmentcontinuestoplacethisriskasveryhighonboththelikelihoodandseverityscaleacrossdifferentassetclassesandregionsManySource:WorldEconomicForumFigure:RisksInterconnectionMap(RIM)ThesepagesshouldbereadwiththefrontinsideflapopenforanoverviewofallchartsGlobalRisksJan:GlobalRisks:Page|GlobalRisksexpertsexpectthedeclineinassetpricestocontinueoverthecomingmonthsasthefinancialcrisisunwindsfurtherandtherecessionleadstobankruptciesandcreditdefaultsResourcechallengesLinkingseveraloftherisksontheassessment,includingclimatechangerelatedweathereventsanddecliningwaterqualityandavailabilityaswellasenergy,theselongertermriskshaveremainedalmostconstantsincethelastassessmentNearlyhalfoftheworld’spopulationalreadyliveinhighwaterstressedareasandthelinkstofoodsecurity,geopoliticalandhealthrisksarestrongInthisreport,thelinkagebetweenenergy,waterandlandisdiscussedmorefullyGlobalgovernancegapsIntroducedforthefirsttimeintheassessment,expertsandGlobalRiskNetworkmembersdeemedtheabsenceorlackofeffectiveandinclusivegovernanceonglobalissuessuchasfinancialstability,trade,climatechange,waterandsecurityasasourceofriskinandofitselfTheassessmentplacesthisgapashighlylikelyandsevereinitsimpactAstheinterconnectionsmapshows,weakglobalgovernancesitsatacentralpositionbetweengeopolitical,economicandenvironmentalrisksAnoteonhealthrelatedrisksThoughnotdiscussedextensivelyinthisreport,chronicdisease,infectiousdiseaseandpandemicsallremainhighontheassessment,particularlyintermsofpotentialseverityineconomicandlossoflifeindicesChronicdisease,inparticular,isnotonlyprominentintheassessmentbutisalsocentralontheinterconnectionsmap,linkingstronglytofoodpricesandinfectiousdiseasebutalsotoChina’sgrowthandfiscalcrisesAccordingtotheWorldHealthOrganization(WHO),chronicdiseases(includingheartdisease,stroke,cancer,chronicrespiratorydiseaseanddiabetes)arecurrentlythecauseofofdeathsannuallyworldwide,ofwhichoccurinlowandmiddleincomecountriesHealthspendingalreadyrepresentsasignificantburdenonpublicspending,whichwillincreaseasfiscalpositionsdeteriorateandbudgetscomeunderpressureLikelihoodbelowabove,,,,,,,,,>,,Severity(numberofdeaths)Figure:GlobalRisksLandscape:LikelihoodwithSeveritybyNumberofDeathsSource:WorldEconomicForumPleaseseeinsideflapforkeyGlobalRisksJan:GlobalRisks:Page|GlobalRisks*ForanoteonthetoolbehindthischartpleaseseeAppendixCountryexposuretoglobalrisksAstheRiskInterconnectionsMap(RIM)offersanoverviewoflinkages,acomplementaryapproachistoconsidertheramificationsoftheseinteractionsatregionalandcountrylevelThechartbelowisderivedfromamodellookingattheglobalriskexposureofcountries*ThemodelusesoftheglobalrisksthatareassessedinthisreportBelow,countryexposurestoeconomicrisks(onanincreasingscale,fromlowtohigh),whichcanchangerapidly,aredepictedonthehorizontalaxisExposurestomoreslowmovingenvironmental,geopolitical,healthandtechnologicalrisksaredisplayedvertically(alsoonanincreasingscale,lowtohigh)Lookingatdifferentclusters,thechartunderscoresregionalclustersandoutliersItrevealsafairlyhighlevelofcohesionwithrespecttoeconomicrisksamongEuropeancountriesIncontrast,thevariationinriskexposuresisfarlargeralongthedomainthatincludesgeopolitical,environmental,healthandtechnologicalrisksAcloseranalysisoftheindividualrisks(notshownhere)suggeststhatdriversfordispersioninEuropearemainlygeopoliticaland,toalesserdegree,environmentalrisks,withparticularlyhighexposurestogeopoliticalrisksincountriesoftheformerSovietUnionThepictureforAsiaisreversedAsiancountriesaremuchmorediversewithrespecttotheirexposurestoeconomicrisks,butcomparativelytightlyclustered–howeveratahighermedianrisklevel–whenitcomestothegeopoliticalandenvironmentalriskdimensionsAfricancountriesform,ingeneral,acomparativelytightclusterwithrespecttoenvironmental,geopolitical,healthandtechnologicalrisksdimensionsNotethattheirmedianexposureislowerthanthatforAsiancountries,andalsothatAfricaisnotquiteasstronglyexposedtoeconomicrisksasisAsiaThoughthischartshouldonlybetakenasatooltoexplorepossibleriskexposure,itdoessuggestthatcertainregionsandcountrieshavethepotentialtoreducetheiroverallriskexposurealongoneortheotheraxisFigure:ExposureofCountriestoGlobalRisksSource:ZurichFinancialServices,ZWSNCDETSDLYCNINIDSGHKQASATMIQAFPKKWNZALUKISLSEFIGENOCHATUSCABREconomicrisksGeopolitical,Environmental,Health,TechnicalrisksAfricaAsiaAustraliaPacificEuropeNAmericaSAmericaAsiancountriesAfricancountriesEuropeancountriesGlobalRisksJan:GlobalRisks:PageTheFinancialCrisisandGlobalRisksPensionandhealthcarereformisexaminedinarece

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