加入VIP
  • 专属下载特权
  • 现金文档折扣购买
  • VIP免费专区
  • 千万文档免费下载

上传资料

关闭

关闭

关闭

封号提示

内容

首页 [美]罗伯特·卡根:历史复归与梦想终结 (Alfred A

[美]罗伯特·卡根:历史复归与梦想终结 (Alfred A. Knopf2008)

[美]罗伯特·卡根:历史复归与梦想终结 (Alfred A

Stlnz
2009-01-31 0人阅读 举报 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《[美]罗伯特·卡根:历史复归与梦想终结 (Alfred Apdf》,可适用于人文社科领域

THERETURNOFHISTORYANDTHEENDOFDREAMSAUTHOROFOFPARADISEANDPOWERUSA$CANADA$HOPESforanewpeacefulinternationalorderaftertheendoftheColdWarhavebeendashedbysoberingrealities:GreatpowersareonceagaincompetingforhonorandinfluenceNationstatesremainasstrongasever,asdotheold,explosiveforcesofambitiousnational­ismTheworldremains"unipolar,"butinter­nationalcompetitionamongtheUnitedStates,Russia,China,Europe,Japan,India,andIranraisenewthreatsofregionalconflictCom­munismisdead,butanewcontestbetweenwesternliberalismandthegreateasternautoc­raciesofRussiaandChinahasreinjectedideol­ogyintogeopoliticsFinally,radicalIslamistsarewagingaviolentstruggleagainstthemod­ernsecularculturesandpowersthat,intheirview,havedominated,penetrated,andpol­lutedtheirIslamicworldThegrandexpecta­tionthataftertheColdWartheworldwouldenteraneraofinternationalgeopoliticalcon­vergencehasprovenwrongForthepastfewyears,theliberalworldhasbeeninternallydividedanddistractedbyissuesbothprofoundandpettyNow,inTheReturnofHistoryandtheEndofDreams,RobertKaganmasterfullyposesthemostimportantques­tionsfacingtheliberaldemocraticcountries,challengingthemtochoosewhethertheywanttoshapehistoryorletothersshapeitforthemROBERTKAGANisseniorassociateattheCarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace,TransatlanticFellowattheGermanMarshallFund,andacolumnistforTheWashingtonPostHeisalsotheauthorofATwilightStrug­gle:AmericanPowerandNicaragua,,andeditor,withWilliamKristol,ofPresentDangers:CrisisandOpportunityinAmericanForeignandDefensePolicyKaganservedintheStateDepartmentfromtoHelivesinBrusselswithhisfamilyRobertKagan'sDangerousNationandOfParadiseandPowerareavailableinVintagepaperbackJacketdesignbyCarolDevineCarsonALFREDAKNOPF,PUBLISHER,NEWYORKwwwaaknopfcomADVANCEPRAISEFORTHERETURNOFHISTORYANDTHEENDOFDREAMS"Inthisimportant,timely,andsuperblywrittenbook,RobertKaganshowsthatthe'endofhistory'wasanillusionToday'sglobalchallengesposeasterntestfortheworld'sdemocraciesThisbookisawakeupcallandshouldbereadbypolicymakers,politicians,pundits,andallwhowantaguidetothedangerouswatersoftwentyfirstcenturygeopolitics"SENATORJOHNMCCAIN"RobertKaganhasonceagainwrittenaprovocative,thoughtful,andvitallyimportantbookthatwillreshapethewaywethinkabouttheworld,thespecialpurposethatAmericamustplayinit,andtheprinciplesthatmustguideusTheReturnofHistoryandtheEndofDreamsisamustreadforanyoneinterestedinthefutureofAmeri­canforeignpolicyandareminderofwhyRobertKaganisoneofournation'smostindispensablestrategists"SENATORJOSEPHLIEBERMAN"Aneloquent,powerful,disturbing,butultimatelyhopefulviewoftheemergingbalanceofpowerintheworldandAmerica'sproperroleinitKagan'sviewswillbeanessentialpartofthedebatethatwillshapeournextpresident'sforeignpolicy"RICHARDHOLBROOKE,FORMERUSAMBASSADORTOTHEUNITEDNATIONS"RobertKagangivesusapictureoftheworldtodayinallitscom­plexityanditssimplicityThisisaworldwhereAmericaisdomi­nantbutcannotdominate,wherethestruggleforpowerandprestigegoesonasitalwayshasPowerisattheserviceofideas,butthekeyideasarealsoideasaboutpower:democracyandautocracyAllthisinahundredpages,withstyle,energy,andpanache"ROBERTCOOPER,COUNCILOFTHEEUROPEANUNIONISBNCURRENTALSOBYROBERTKAGANDangerousNation:America'sPlaceintheWorldfromItsEarliestDaystotheDawnoftheTwentiethCenturyOfParadiseandPower:AmericaandEuropeintheNewWorldOrderATwilightStruggle:AmericanPowerandNicaragua,PresentDangers:CrisisandOpportunityinAmericanForeignandDefensePolicy(editedwithWilliamKristol)THERETURNOFHISTORYANDTHEENDOFDREAMSTHERETURNOFHISTORYANDTHEENDOFDREAMSROBERTKAGANAlfredAKnopfNEWYORKTHISISABORZOIBOOKPUBLISHEDBYALFREDAKNOPFCopyright©byRobertKaganAllrightsreservedPublishedintheUnitedStatesbyAlfredAKnopf,adivisionofRandomHouse,Inc,NewYork,andinCanadabyRandomHouseofCanadaLimited,TorontowwwaaknopfcomKnopf,BorzoiBooks,andthecolophonareregisteredtrademarksofRandomHouse,IncMaterialinthisworkistakenfromandbaseduponthearticle"EndofDreams,ReturnofHistory"byRobertKagan,whichoriginallyappearedinPolicyReviewLibraryofCongressControlNumber:ManufacturedintheUnitedStatesofAmericaFirstEditionForDadTHERETURNOFHISTORYANDTHEENDOFDREAMSTHEWORLDHASBECOMEnormalagainTheyearsimmediatelyfollowingtheendoftheColdWarofferedatantalizingglimpseofanewkindofinternationalorder,withnationstatesgrowingtogetherordisappearing,ideologicalconflictsmeltingaway,culturesintermingling,andincreasinglyfreecommerceandcommunicationsThemoderndemocraticworldwantedtobelievethattheendoftheColdWardidnotjustendonestrategicandideologicalconflictbutallstrategicandideologicalconflictPeopleandtheirleaderslongedfor"aworldtransformed"ButthatwasamirageTheworldhasnotbeentrans­formedInmostplaces,thenationstateremainsasstrongasever,andso,too,thenationalistambitions,thepas­sions,andthecompetitionamongnationsthathaveshapedhistoryTheUnitedStatesremainsthesolesuper­powerButinternationalcompetitionamonggreatpowershasreturned,withRussia,China,Europe,Japan,India,Iran,theUnitedStates,andothersvyingforregionalpre­dominanceStrugglesforstatusandinfluenceintheworldhavereturnedascentralfeaturesoftheinternationalTHERETURNOFHISTORYsceneTheoldcompetitionbetweenliberalismandautoc­racyhasalsoreemerged,withtheworld'sgreatpowersincreasinglyliningupaccordingtothenatureoftheirregimesAndanevenolderstrugglehaseruptedbetweenradicalIslamistsandthemodernsecularculturesandpowersthattheybelievehavedominated,penetrated,andpollutedtheirIslamicworldAsthesethreestrugglescom­bineandcollide,thepromiseofaneweraofinternationalconvergencefadesWehaveenteredanageofdivergenceWiththedreamsofthepostColdWareradissolving,thedemocraticworldwillhavetodecidehowtorespondInrecentyears,astheautocraciesofRussiaandChinahaverisenandtheradicalIslamistshavewagedtheirstruggle,thedemocracieshavebeendividedanddis­tractedbyissuesbothprofoundandpettyTheyhavequestionedtheirpurposeandtheirmorality,arguedoverpowerandethics,andpointedtooneanother'sfailingsDisunityhasweakenedanddemoralizedthedemocraciesatamomentwhentheycanleastafforditHistoryhasreturned,andthedemocraciesmustcometogethertoshapeit,orotherswillshapeitforthemHOPESANDDREAMSINTHEEARLYs,theoptimismwasunderstand­ableandalmostuniversalThecollapseofthecommunistempireandtheapparentembraceofdemocracybyRussiaseemedtoauguraneweraofglobalconvergenceThegreatadversariesoftheColdWarsuddenlysharedmanycommongoals,includingadesireforeconomicandpoliticalintegrationEvenafterthepoliticalcrackdownthatbeganinTiananmenSquareinanddisturbingsignsofinstabilityinRussiaafter,mostAmericansandEuropeansbelievedChinaandRussiawereonapathtowardliberalismBorisYeltsin'sRussiaseemedcommit­tedtotheliberalmodelofpoliticaleconomyandcloserintegrationwiththeWestTheChinesegovernment'scommitmenttoeconomicopening,itwashoped,wouldinevitablyproduceapoliticalopening,whetherChineseleaderswanteditornotSuchdeterminismwascharacteristicofpostColdWarthinkingInaglobalizedeconomy,mostbelieved,nationshadnochoicebuttoliberalize,firsteconomically,thenpolitically,iftheywantedtocompeteandsurviveAsnationaleconomiesapproachedacertainlevelofpercapitaincome,growingmiddleclasseswoulddemandlegalandpoliticalpower,whichrulerswouldhavetograntiftheywantedtheirnationstoprosperSincedemocraticcapitalismwasthemostsuccessfulmodelfordevelopingsocieties,allsocietieswouldeventuallychoosethatpathInthebattleofideas,liberalismhadtriumphedAsFrancisFukuyamafamouslyputit,"Attheendofhistory,therearenoseriousideologicalcompetitorslefttoliberaldemocracy"TheeconomicandideologicaldeterminismoftheearlypostColdWaryearsproducedtwobroadassump­tionsthatshapedbothpoliciesandexpectationsOnewasanabidingbeliefintheinevitabilityofhumanprogress,thebeliefthathistorymovesinonlyonedirectionafaithbornintheEnlightenment,dashedbythebru­talityofthetwentiethcentury,butgivennewlifebytheTHERETURNOFHISTORYfallofcommunismTheotherwasaprescriptionforpatienceandrestraintRatherthanconfrontandchal­lengeautocracies,itwasbettertoenmeshthemintheglobaleconomy,supporttheruleoflawandthecreationofstrongerstateinstitutions,andlettheineluctableforcesofhumanprogressworktheirmagicWiththeworldconvergingaroundthesharedprinci­plesofEnlightenmentliberalism,thegreattaskofthepostColdWarerawastobuildamoreperfectinter­nationalsystemoflawsandinstitutions,fulfillingthepropheciesofEnlightenmentthoughtstretchingbacktotheseventeenthandeighteenthcenturiesAworldoflib­eralgovernmentswouldbeaworldwithoutwar,justasKanthadimaginedThefreeflowofbothgoodsandideasinthenewglobalizederawouldbeanantidotetohumanconflictAsMontesquieuhadargued,"Thenatu­raleffectofcommerceistoleadtowardpeace"ThisoldEnlightenmentdreamseemedsuddenlypossiblebecause,alongwiththeapparenttriumphofinternationalliberal­ism,thegeopoliticalandstrategicinterestsoftheworld'sgreatpowersalsoseemedtoconvergeIn,PresidentGeorgeHWBushspokeofa"newworldorder"inwhich"thenationsoftheworld,EastandWest,NorthandSouth,canprosperandliveinharmony,"where"theruleoflawsupplantstheruleofthejungle,"wherenations"recognizethesharedresponsibilityforfreedomandjus­tice"Itwas"aworldquitedifferentfromtheonewe'veknown"TheworldlookeddifferentprimarilybecausetheSovietUnionwasdifferentNoonewouldhavesuggestedthathistoryhadendedifthecommunistSovietUnionhadnotsosuddenlyanddramaticallydiedandbeentransformedafterThetransformationofSovietandthenRussianforeignpolicywasremarkableThe"peacefulinfluenceofliberalideas"completelyreorientedRussianperspectivesontheworldorsoitseemedEveninthelastyearsoftheColdWar,advocatesof"newthinking"inMoscowcalledforconvergenceandthebreakdownofbarriersbetweenEastandWest,acommonembrace,asMikhailGorbachevputit,of"universalvalues"Then,intheearlyYeltsinyears,underforeignministerAndreiKozyrev,Russiaappearedcommittedtoenteringpost­modernEuropeMoscownolongerdefineditsinterestsintermsofterritoryandtraditionalspheresofinterestbutratherintermsofeconomicintegrationandpoliticaldevelopmentItrenouncedregionalhegemony,withdrewtroopsfromneighboringstates,slasheddefensebudgets,soughtalliancewiththeEuropeanpowersandtheUnitedStates,andingeneralshapeditsforeignpoliciesonthepremisethatitsinterestswerethesameasthoseoftheWestRussia's"wishwassimplytobelong"ThedemocratizationofRussia,beginningevenintheGorbachevyears,hadledthecountry'sleaderstoredefineandrecalculateRussia'snationalinterestsMoscowcouldgiveupimperialcontrolinEasternEurope,couldgiveupitsroleasasuperpower,notbecausethestrategicsituationhadchangedifanything,theUnitedStateswasmoremenacinginthanithadbeeninbutbecausetheregimeinMoscowhadchangedAdemocratizingRussiadidnotfeartheUnitedStatesortheenlargementofitsallianceofdemocraciesIfRussiacouldabandontraditionalgreatpowerpoliTHERETURNOFHISTORYtics,socouldtherestoftheworld"Theageofgeopoliticshasgivenwaytoanageofwhatmightbecalledgeoeconomics,"MartinWalkerwrotein"Thenewvirilitysymbolsareexportsandproductivityandgrowthratesandthegreatinternationalencountersarethetradepactsoftheeconomicsuperpowers"Competitionamongnationsmightcontinue,butitwouldbepeace­fulcommercialcompetitionNationsthattradedwithoneanotherwouldbelesslikelytofightoneanotherIncreasinglycommercialsocietieswouldbemoreliberalbothathomeandabroadTheircitizenswouldseekpros­perityandcomfortandabandontheatavisticpassions,thestrugglesforhonorandglory,andthetribalhatredsthathadproducedconflictthroughouthistoryTheancientGreeksbelievedthatembeddedinhumannaturewassomethingcalledthumos,aspiritednessandferocityindefenseofclan,tribe,city,orstateIntheEnlightenmentview,however,commercewouldtameandperhapseveneliminatethumosinpeopleandinnations"Wherethereiscommerce,"Montesquieuwrote,"therearesoftmannersandmorals"Humannaturecouldbeimproved,withtherightinternationalstructures,therightpolitics,andtherighteconomicsystemsLiberaldemocracydidnotmerelyconstrainnaturalhumaninstinctsforaggressionandviolenceFukuyamaarguedit"fundamentallytransformedtheinstinctsthemselves"Theclashoftraditionalnationalinterestswasathingofthepast,thereforeTheEuropeanUnion,thepoliti­calscientistMichaelMandelbaumspeculated,wasbut"aforetasteofthewaytheworldofthetwentyfirstcen­turywouldbeorganized"TheliberalinternationalistscholarGJohnIkenberrydescribedapostColdWarworldinwhich"democracyandmarketsflourishedaroundtheworld,globalizationwasenshrinedasapro­gressivehistoricalforce,andideology,nationalismandwarwereatalowebb"Itwasthetriumphof"theliberalvisionofinternationalorder"ForAmericans,thefalloftheSovietUnionseemedaheavensentchancetofulfillalonghelddreamofgloballeadershipaleadershipwelcomedandevenembracedbytheworldAmericanshadalwaysconsideredthem­selvestheworld'smostimportantnationanditsdestinedleader"ThecauseofAmericaisthecauseofallmankind,"BenjaminFranklinsaidatthetimeoftheRevolutionTheUnitedStateswasthe"locomotiveattheheadofman­kind,"DeanAchesonsaidatthedawnoftheColdWar,withtherestoftheworldmerely"thecaboose"AftertheColdWaritwasstill"theindispensablenation,"indispen­sablebecauseitalonehadthepowerandtheunderstand­ingnecessarytohelpbringtheinternationalcommunitytogetherincommoncauseInthenewworldorder,asDeputySecretaryofStateStrobeTalbottputit,theUnitedStateswoulddefine"itsstrengthindeed,itsverygreat­nessnotintermsofitsabilitytoachieveormaintaindominanceoverothers,butintermsofitsabilitytoworkwithothersintheinterestsoftheinternationalcommu­nityasawhole"WhileAmericanssawtheirselfimagereaffirmedbythenewworldorder,EuropeansbelievedthatthenewinternationalorderwouldbemodeledaftertheEuropeanUnionAsscholardiplomatRobertCooperputit,Europewasleadingtheworldintoapostmodernage,inwhichTHERETURNOFHISTORYtraditionalnationalinterestsandpowerpoliticswouldgivewaytointernationallaw,supranationalinstitutions,andpooledsovereigntyThecultural,ethnic,andnation­alistdivisionsthathadplaguedmankind,andEurope,wouldbedissolvedbysharedvaluesandsharedeconomicinterestsTheEU,liketheUnitedStates,wasexpansive,butinapostmodernwayCooperenvisionedtheenlarg­ingunionasakindofvoluntaryempirePastempireshadimposedtheirlawsandsystemsofgovernmentButinthepostColdWarera,"nooneisimposinganything"NationswereeagertojointheEU's"cooperativeempirededicatedtolibertyanddemocracy"A"voluntarymove­mentofselfimpositionwastakingplace"Evenasthesehopefulexpectationsarose,however,therewerecloudsonthehorizon,signsofglobaldiver­gence,stubborntraditionsofculture,civilization,reli­gion,andnationalismthatresistedorcutagainstthecommonembraceofdemocraticliberalismandmarketcapitalismThecoreassumptionsofthepostColdWaryearscollapsedalmostassoonastheywereformulatedTHERETURNOFGREATPOWERNATIONALISMTHEHOPESFORANEWERAinhumanhistoryrestedonauniquesetofinternationalcircumstances:thetem­poraryabsenceoftraditionalgreatpowercompetitionForcenturies,thestruggleamonggreatpowersforinflu­ence,wealth,security,status,andhonorhadbeenthemainsourceofconflictandwarFormorethanfourdecadesduringtheColdWar,thejostlinghadbeenlimitedtothetwosuperpowerstheirrigidbipolarordersuppressedthenormaltendencyofothergreatpowerstoemergeWhentheSovietUnioncollapsedin,suddenlyonlytheUnitedStatesremainedRussiawasweak,itsmoralelow,itsdomesticpoliticsinturmoil,itseconomyinreceiver­ship,itsmilitarypowerinsharpdeclineChina,aftertheeventsatTiananmenSquare,wasisolated,nervous,andintrospective,itseconomicfutureuncertain,anditsmili­taryunpreparedformodernhightechwarfareJapan,therisingeconomicsuperpowerofthes,hadsufferedacalamitousstockmarketcrashinandwasenteringadecadeofeconomiccontractionIndiahadnotyetbegunitsowneconomicrevolutionAndEurope,thatpremierarenaofgreatpowercompetition,wasrejectingpowerpoliticsandperfectingitspostmoderninstitutionsGeopoliticalrealistslikeHenryKissingerwarnedatthetimethatthissetofcircumstancescouldnotlast,thatinternationalcompetitionwasembeddedinhumannatureandwouldreturnAndalthoughpredictionsofanimminentglobalmultipolaritywiththeUnitedStates,China,Russia,Japan,andIndiaallroughlyequalinpowerprovedmistaken,therealistshadaclearerunder­standingoftheunchangingnatureofhumanbeingsTheworldwaswitnessingnotatransformationbutmerelyapauseintheendlesscompetitionofnationsandpeoplesOverthecourseofthes,thatcompetitionreemergedas,onebyone,r

用户评价(0)

关闭

新课改视野下建构高中语文教学实验成果报告(32KB)

抱歉,积分不足下载失败,请稍后再试!

提示

试读已结束,如需要继续阅读或者下载,敬请购买!

文档小程序码

使用微信“扫一扫”扫码寻找文档

1

打开微信

2

扫描小程序码

3

发布寻找信息

4

等待寻找结果

我知道了
评分:

/26

[美]罗伯特·卡根:历史复归与梦想终结 (Alfred A

仅供在线阅读

VIP

在线
客服

免费
邮箱

爱问共享资料服务号

扫描关注领取更多福利