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首页 奢侈品行业的一份研究报告(英文)

奢侈品行业的一份研究报告(英文).pdf

奢侈品行业的一份研究报告(英文)

施策
2009-01-06 0人阅读 举报 0 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《奢侈品行业的一份研究报告(英文)pdf》,可适用于战略管理领域

AnalystGillesLequeuxPanEuropeanEquityConsumerLuxurygoodsJulyEasternpromiseLuxurygoodsreviewEQUITYMARKETSbcLuxuryGoodsReviewqxp:PageWestLBLuxurygoodsreview–EasternpromiseJulyExecutivesummaryTwotoplinetriggers:watchesandtourismOurtoppicksareLVMHandRichemont,aswethinkthattherecoveriesinUSandAsiantravelretailandthewatchmarketwillmorethanoffsetlessvigorousconsumptionincontinentalEuropeandthelowlevelofthedollarversustheeuroTheenvironmentisimprovingSalesinAsia(exJapan)andtheUSAaregrowingveryfastTravelretailinAsiaisalsorecovering,asJapanesetouristsaretravellinginthisregion,buyingabroadwhereluxurygoodsitemsarecheaper(thoughasaconsequencefewerJapanesearebuyinginJapanitself)LocalconsumptionwasweakinEuropeinthefirstsixmonthsofthisyear,butsincetheendofJuneLVMHmanagementhasevenbeentalkingaboutanimprovementinthisareaAsfaraswatchesareconcerned,therehasbeenaclearimprovementsincethebeginningofthisyearAccordingtotheSwissWatchFederation,thevalueofSwisswatchesexportedfromSwitzerlandinFebruary,March,April,MayandJuneincreasedby,,,andrespectively,inSwissfrancsJapaneseresurgence,ChineseprospectsAccordingtotheJNTO,inthefirstfivemonthsof,departuresfromJapanclimbedtoanestimatedmThatisbehindthelevelexperiencedduringthefirstfivemonthsofandbelowthesameperiodinAdditionally,ChinesetouristsareplayingamoreandmoreimportantroleAccordingtotheWorldTravelOrganisation(WTO),fromtothenumberofoutboundtravellershasincreasedannuallybym,andtheWTOforecaststhatChinawillhavemoutboundtravellersbyHigherqualitygrowthmeanshigherROICWewouldliketohighlightourviewthatluxurygoodsconglomerateslikeLVMHandRichemonthavelearnedfromtheirpastmistakes,andthattheywillnotgoonabuyingspreeagain,eveniftheirbalancesheetshavebeenrestoredandvaluationsofpotentialtargetslookmoreattractivethaninandConsequently,wethinkthattheywillfocusonorganicgrowth,whichmeansretailintegrationandgeographicalexpansionThatstrategyshouldhelptoboosttheirROICandultimatelytheirvaluationsOneimportantconcernfortheluxurygoodssectorisgrowthpotentialinJapan,wheremostestablishedbrandshavedevelopedsignificantretailnetworksHowever,newandpromisingmarketsareemerging:China,IndiaandRussiaSummaryofrecommendationsLVMHBuyRichemontBuyBurberryOutperformChristianDiorOutperformBulgariNeutralHermèsNeutralTod’sNeutralResearchanalystGillesLequeux()gilleslequeuxwestlbcomMarketinganalystMichaelLohmann()michaellohmannwestlbcomLondonsales()NewYorksalesDüsseldorfsales()DisclosuresandstatementsrequiredbyregulatorybodiesareshownonthelastpageAllpricesanddisclosuresasatJulyWestLBLuxurygoodsreview–EasternpromiseJulyContentsExecutivesummaryLuxurygoodsTheluxurygoodssectorhasperformedwellSixmonthview:bulltriggersoutweighbeartriggersHigherandbetterqualitytoplinegrowthValuationdrivenbyROICrecoveryCompanyprofilesBulgariBurberryHermèsLVMHRichemontTod’sWestLBLuxurygoodsreview–EasternpromiseJulyLuxurygoodsWeseethebullpricetriggersoutweighingthebeartriggersinthenextsixmonthsandhaveapositiveviewontheluxurygoodssectorRichemontandLVMHremainourpreferredstocksThesectorhasperformedwellsinceQlastyearduetotheendoftheIraqwar,thecontainmentofSARSandeconomicgrowthrecoveryinbothAsiaandtheUSAThesharesalsobenefitedfrominvestors’appetiteforcyclicalstocksWeremainpositiveforthenextsixmonthsaswethinkthattherecoveryofbothJapanesetravelretailandthewatchmarketwillmorethanoffsetweakconsumptionincontinentalEuropeandtheweaknessofthedollarversustheeuroLongertermwethinkthatvaluationwillbeboostedbyhigherROICasbusinessmodelsarenowmoreestablishedandluxurygoodscompanieshaveintegratedorsoldtheirandacquisitionsRecommendationandpricetargetupdateNewOldRecommendationPricetargetRecommendationPricetargetLVMH(€)Buy€OutperformUnchangedRichemont(CHF)BuyCHFOutperformUnchangedChristianDior(€)Outperform€NeutralUnchangedBurberry(p)OutperformpUnchangedpTod’s(€)Neutral€UnchangedUnchangedHermès(€)Neutral€UnchangedUnchangedBulgari(€)Neutral€Unchanged€SourceWestLBEquityMarketsTheluxurygoodssectorhasperformedwellDuringthepasttwelvemonthsluxurygoodsstockshavebenefitedfromaninvestorappetiteforcyclicalstocksTheluxurygoodssectordidwellasawhole,butsomestocksclearlyoutperformedtheothersItisinterestingtonotethatthosestocks,ieBulgari,BurberryandChristianDior,havebeenoutperformingthewholesectorfordifferentreasonsBulgari’sperformancehasbeendrivenbytherecoveryinthehardluxurygoodsmarket(watches,jewellery)andanimpressiveimprovementofitsJewellerygrossmarginsChristianDior,LVMH’sholdingcompany,hasexperiencedadramaticreductioninthediscounttoitsnetassetvaluebecauseoftheimprovedoperationalperformanceofDiorcouture,whichhasreachedacriticalsizeFinally,theBurberrybrandhascontinuedtogrowevenindifficulttimesthankstoclientappetiteforitsnewproductlinesWethinkthebrandhasthepotentialtoexceedmarketexpectationsfurther,andthestockisstilltradingatadiscounttoitsluxurygoodspeersFavouritestocks:Richemont,LVMHBurberry,BulgariandChristianDiorhaveoutperformedthesectorduringthepasttwelvemonthsWestLBLuxurygoodsreview–EasternpromiseJulySharepriceperformance()monthmonthsmonthsLVMHChristianDiorTod’sBurberryHermèsPPRBulgariRichemontSourceDatastreamSixmonthview:bulltriggersoutweighbeartriggersPricetriggersBulltriggersBeartriggersStrengthoftheYenWeakUS$€WatchmarketrecoveryPotentialterroristattacksJapanesetourismrecoveryWeakconsumptioninEuropeSourceWestLBEquityMarketsQ:expectedtoplinegrowthaccelerationLuxurygoodscompaniesshouldbenefitfromsoftcomparablesinQ:inQlastyeartheIraqWarandSARSwereamajorconcernforluxurygoodscompaniesastheyaffectedtourismandlocalconsumptioninAsiaSARSparticularlyaffectedsalesinHongKongandSingaporeThehardluxurygoodscompanies(Richemont,Bulgari)werethemostaffectedasHongKongisakeymarketforwatchesWeestimatethatHongKongandSingaporeaccountedforofbothRichemontandBulgarisales,andonlytoofLVMH,Gucci,HermesandBurberrysalesAsfarasTod’sisconcerned,directexposuretoSARSwasnotreallymaterialHowever,wethinkthattoplinegrowthaccelerationinQwon’tcomeexclusivelyfromsoftcomparablesTheenvironmentisimprovingSalesinAsia(exJapan)andtheUSAaregrowingveryfastTravelretailinAsiaisalsorecoveringSincetheendofJuneLVMHmanagementhasevenbeentalkingaboutanimprovementinlocalconsumptioninEuropeTheonlynegativeinEuropeansalesisthelackofUSandJapanesetouristsAdditionally,salesgrowthinJapancouldbelimitedthisyearastheJapanesetouristsaretravellinginAsia,andconsequentlybuyingabroadwhereluxurygoodsitemsarecheaperandnotbuyingsomuchinJapanLuxurygoodsreportingdatesestimatesCompanyQsalesQresultsQsalesresultsAnalysts’meetingLVMHJulySeptOctSamedayasQresultsHermesAugSeptNovBulgariJulySeptNovSamedayasQresultsRichemontSept()Nov()JanSamedayasQresultsBurberryJulyOct()Nov()SamedayasQresultsTod’sJulySeptNovSamedayasQresultsPPRJulySeptOctSamedayasQresults()Qtradingupdate()InterimresultsSourceCompanies,WestLBEquityMarkets()Qtradingupdate()InterimresultsSARSandIraqWarlastyearmeansoftcomparablesinQLocalconsumptioninEuropeisimprovingWestLBLuxurygoodsreview–EasternpromiseJulyCompaniesstillaffectedby$€weaknessinGiventhestrengthoftheluxurygoodsrecoverywedon’tthinkthatitcouldbeheldbackbythecurrentstrengthoftheeuroHowever,thedollarweaknessisimportantattwolevelsFirstlyatthetopline,asthedollarweaknessleadstotheJapaneseandAmericanstravellinglessandbuyinglessSecondly,attheEBITAlevel,ascostsforluxurygoodscompaniesareeitherineurosorinSwissfrancsFor,mostluxurygoodscompanieshaveimplementedahedgingpolicyontheirrevenuesindollarsandinyenConsequentlythenegativeimpactonEBITAmarginsshouldbelimitedthisyearItcouldbemoreproblematicinUnlikemostoftheluxurygoodsplayersRichemonthadaverylimitedhedgingpolicyontheUSdollarThatcurrencystrategyaffectedRichemont’soperationalperformancein(yearendingMarch)andin,withtheaverage$€movingfromintoinandinWeforecastthe$€rateatforEandEAtthislevelthedollarshouldhavenearlynonegativeimpactonRichemont’sPL,unliketheotherluxurygoodsplayersHowevertheYenisgettingstrongerUSDversusYenJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJJAPANESEYENTOUS$(BTM)EXCHANGERATESourceDatastreamwhichmeansthatJapanesetourismisrecoveringAccordingtotheJapaneseTravelBureau(JNTO),,ofJapanesewentoverseasinMaythanksinlargeparttothestrongeryenversusthedollarandastrongerJapaneseeconomyThiswasthethirdconsecutiveincreasein,withAprilpostingaincreaseintrafficAccordingtotheJNTO,inthefirstfivemonthsof,departuresfromJapanclimbedtoanestimatedmThatisbehindthelevelexperiencedduringthefirstfivemonthsofandbelowsameperiodof€dollarstrengthisaproblem€dollarstrengthshouldaffectRichemontlessThemainwinnershouldbeLVMHgivenitsexposuretoJapanesecustomersJapanesetourismiscomingbacktolevelsWestLBLuxurygoodsreview–EasternpromiseJulyOutboundJapanesetravellersfromJapan,–backtolevelsyoychangeyoychangeyoychangeyoychangeyoychangeJanuary,,,,,,,,,,February,,,,,,,,,,March,,,,,,,,,,April,,,,,,,,,May,,,,,,,,,June,,,,,,,July,,,,,,,August,,,,,,,,September,,,,,,,,October,,,,,,,November,,,,,,,December,,,,,,,,Total,,,,,,,,SourceJapaneseTravelBureauThewatchmarketisbouncingbackAfterrecordyearsin,and,themarketdeclinedin,althoughapparentlybottominginwhenthevalueofSwisswatchexportswasCHFbn,adecreaseofcomparedwithwasaparticularlydifficultyear:thewarinIraqdepressedtourismwhiletheSARSepidemicandtheweakeconomicsituationinEuropewereallprejudicialtoSwisswatchexportsSwisswatchexports–salestrendsince(CHFm)SourceSwissWatchFederation,companyreports,WestLBEquityMarketsTheSwissWatchFederationforecaststhatthewatchmarketislikelytoreturntomoderateexportgrowthduringTheeconomicupturnintheUnitedStatesshouldbringAsiaalonginitswake,creatingfavourableconditionsforSwisswatchproductsAccordingtotheSwissWatchFederation,thevalueofSwisswatchesexportedfromSwitzerlandinFebruary,March,April,MayandJuneincreasedby,,,andrespectivelyinSwissfrancshasbeenadifficultyearReturntogrowthexpectedinThemarketbegantopickupinFebruaryWestLBLuxurygoodsreview–EasternpromiseJulyHigherandbetterqualitytoplinegrowthWethinkthattheluxurygoodsmarketrecoveryisnotbasedonlyon‘softcomparables’,butthatthedemandforluxurygoodsitemsisincreasinginthelongtermFurthermore,wethinkthatluxurygoodsconglomerateshavelearnedfromtheirpastmistakesandthattheywon’tgoonabuyingspreeagaineveniftheirbalancesheetshavebeenrestoredandvaluationslooksmoreattractivethaninandConsequentlywethinkthattheywillfocusonorganicgrowth,whichmeansretailintegrationandgeographicalexpansionThatstrategyshouldhelptoboosttheirROICandultimatelytheirvaluationsLongertermweexpecttheluxurygoodsmarkettooutperformGDPgrowthWeestimatetheluxurygoodsmarkettobeworthabout€bnDuringtheninetiesluxurygoodscompanies’salesgrewbetweentwoandthreetimesfasterthanGDPWethinkthatsomefactorswhichhelpedluxurygoodsconsumptionduringthatperiodhavedisappeared,suchasthesharemarketbubbleOntheotherhandwethinkthatluxurymarketgrowthshouldcontinuetooutperformGDPgrowth,as)worldwideGDPgrowthisbecomingincreasinglydependentonemergingmarkets,wherepotentialforluxurygoodsproductsisimportantand)wethinkthatinmaturecountriesGDPgrowthgeneratesunequalwealthdistribution:‘therich’aregettingricherquickerthantheaveragepopulationAstudyfromtheUSCensusBureau(USdepartmentofCommerce)showedthatsince(whenincomedataforhouseholdsfirstbecameavailable)theshapeofhouseholdincomedistributionchangeddramaticallyThisperiodwasoneofincreasinghouseholdincomeinequalityMorehighlyskilled,trained,andeducatedworkersatthetopareexperiencingrealwagegains,whilethoseatthebottomareexperiencingrealwagelosses,makingwagedistributionconsiderablymoreunequalPercentshareofhouseholdincomebyquintileintheUSALowestquintileSecondquintileThirdquintileFourthquintileHighestquintileSourceUSCensusBureauGrowthshouldbelessdrivenbyacquisitionsAsthesectorremainsfragmentedandcompanieshaverestoredtheirbalancesheetsonemightthinkthatMAwillresumeHowever,wethinkthatconglomerateshavelearnedfromthepastandthattheywillbemorereluctanttomakeacquisitionsWeeventhinkthatthedivestmentprocesscouldcontinue,ascompaniesreviewthebusinessmodelsofeachoftheiractivitiesLVMHisagoodexampleLVMHisstillbyfarthemostindebtedcompanyinthesectorWeexpectLVMH’sgearing(netdebtdividedbyshareholders’funds)tobeinEHowever,thegroupbalancesheethasbeenrestoredsinceWeexpectLVMH’sEnetdebttoaccountforyearsofcashflowinversusyearsinThishasbeenachievedduetoapolicyofcashgeneration(capitalexpenditurehasbeenallocatedtothemostprofitablepartsofthebusiness)andThefinancialbubblehelpedtoincreasetheconsumptionofluxurygoodsproductsbutalsosomeotherfactorssuchasunequalwealthdistributionRestoredbalancesheetdoesnotmeanthatMAwillresumeWestLBLuxurygoodsreview–EasternpromiseJulythesaleofsomenoncorebusinessTheother(listed)luxurygoodsplayershaveveryhealthybalancesheets(especiallyHermès),evenifRichemont’scashflowgenerationhasbeendepressedduringthepasttwoyearsGearingversuscash()EGearing()Netdebtcashflow()Gearing()Netdebtcashflow()LVMHTod’sBurberryHermèsBulgariRichemontSourceWestLBEquityMarketsEstimatesEvensomefurtherpotentialdivestmentforLVMHWethinkthatLVMH’smanagementcouldbetemptedatacertainpointtosellsomeofitscoreselectivedistributionbusiness(DFS,Sephora,MiamiCruiseline)TheofficialmessageisthatbothSephoraandDFSarenoncorebusinesses,butthatthedecisiononwhetherornottosellthemhasnotyetbeentakenForthemomentthefocusisonimprovingmarginsWethinkthatsellingSephorawouldbeeasierthansellingDFSTheonlyissueisSephoraUS,whichwouldnotbeinterestingforaEuropeanplayerlikeDouglasHoldingWeexpectSephoraEurope’sEBITAmargintob

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