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首页 [美]迪恩·勒巴龙:毛泽东、马克思与市场:中俄的资本冒险(东门 2002)

[美]迪恩·勒巴龙:毛泽东、马克思与市场:中俄的资本冒险(东门 2002)

[美]迪恩·勒巴龙:毛泽东、马克思与市场:中俄的资本冒险(东门…

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2008-12-22 0人阅读 举报 0 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《[美]迪恩·勒巴龙:毛泽东、马克思与市场:中俄的资本冒险(东门 2002)pdf》,可适用于人文社科领域

MAO,MARXTHEMARKETCapitalistAdventuresinRussiaandChinaDeanLeBaronwithDonnaCarpenterJOHNWILEYSONS,INCCCCLeBaronFM(ixxii):PMPageviMAO,MARXTHEMARKETCCCLeBaronFM(ixxii):PMPageiALSOBYDEANLEBARONDeanLeBaron’sTreasuryofInvestmentWisdom:GreatInvestingMindsDeanLeBaron’sBookofInvestmentQuotationsInsandOutsofInstitutionalInvestingCCCLeBaronFM(ixxii):PMPageiiMAO,MARXTHEMARKETCapitalistAdventuresinRussiaandChinaDeanLeBaronwithDonnaCarpenterJOHNWILEYSONS,INCCCCLeBaronFM(ixxii):PMPageiiiThisbookisprintedonacidfreepaper∞Copyright©byDeanLeBaronAllrightsreservedPublishedbyJohnWileySons,Inc,NewYorkPublishedsimultaneouslyinCanadaNopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording,scanning,orotherwise,exceptaspermittedunderSectionoroftheUnitedStatesCopyrightAct,withouteitherthepriorwrittenpermissionofthePublisher,orauthorizationthroughpaymentoftheappropriatepercopyfeetotheCopyrightClearanceCenter,RosewoodDrive,Danvers,MA,(),fax()RequeststothePublisherforpermissionshouldbeaddressedtothePermissionsDepartment,JohnWileySons,Inc,ThirdAvenue,NewYork,NY,(),fax(),EMail:PERMREQWILEYCOMThispublicationisdesignedtoprovideaccurateandauthoritativeinformationinregardtothesubjectmattercoveredItissoldwiththeunderstandingthatthepublisherisnotengagedinrenderingprofessionalservicesIfprofessionaladviceorotherexpertassistanceisrequired,theservicesofacompetentprofessionalpersonshouldbesoughtLibraryofCongressCataloginginPublicationData:LeBaron,DeanMao,Marxthemarket:capitalistadventuresinRussiaandChinaDeanLeBaron,withDonnaCarpenterpcmIncludesindexISBNX(alkpaper)Russia(Federation)–ChinaEconomicconditions–ChinaEconomicconditions–CapitalismRussia(Federation)CapitalismChinaICarpenter,DonnaSammonsIITitleHCLAdcPrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmericaCCCLeBaronFM(ixxii):PMPageivTomymotherIrene,mydaughterStacy,andmygranddaughtersRachel,Glennie,Hannah,andLeahmodernwomenDLCCCLeBaronFM(ixxii):PMPagevCCCLeBaronFM(ixxii):PMPageviItismorepleasantandmoreusefultolivethroughtheexperienceofarevolutionthantowriteaboutitVladimirLeninThereisaserioustendencytowardscapitalismamongthewelltodopeasantsMaoZedongCCCLeBaronFM(ixxii):PMPageviiCCCLeBaronFM(ixxii):PMPageviiiAcknowledgmentsFRIENDSWHOKNOWMYWRITINGwillnoticegreaterclaritythanIamnormallyabletoachieveNeitherrecentwritingclassesnorneworganizationalabilitiesareresponsibleforthisThedeliverancewasprovidedbyDonnaCarpenter,whocraftedmuchofthewritingSheandIhaveworkedtogetherduringthepastyears,travelingtoRussiaandChinaseveraltimesanddrivinghardatthedeskaswellasontheroadPushingforthedetailsandthewhys,DonnaforcedmetorememberandtoexplainHeradmirersknowherasahighlyskilledbusinessghost,withmanybestsellerstohersilentcreditThisadmireralsoknowsherasapartnerwhohelpedmeunderstandwhatIexperiencedandwhoencouragedmetofollowmyinstincttoshareitwithothersTheauthorshipnowreadsDLwithDC,andtherearegoodargumentsforreversingthatorderIalsowanttothanktheparticipantsintheexperiencesthisbookdescribesDoingbusinessinforeignlandsrequirestenacity,courage,andintelligenceinthebestofcircumstances,andcurrentcircumstancesinRussiaandChinaarenotthebestPaulRRugo,myfriendandlongtimelawyerandcounselor,tookasixmonthsabbaticalfromGoodwin,ProcterHoartoheadBatterymarch’sMoscowofficeneartheendofourtimethereand,sadly,neartheendofhislifePaul’seffortsindecipheringixCCCLeBaronFM(ixxii):PMPageixthelegalcomplexitiesinRussiaandChinawereablysupplementedbyhispartner,JohnLeClaireOthersinMoscowJeffBraemer,VladimirSidorovich,JoelBarber,SvetlanaKolupaeva,RichardSobel,KimMalone,OksanaKozhina,andVeraZudinadeserveandhavemygratitudeTwoAmericanadvisers,GrahamAllisonandVernonAlden,gavefreelyoftheirtimeandreputationstoourRussianventureTheRussianswhoformedakindofinformalcounciltoadviseusriskedtheirreputationsonWesterninvolvementearlyintheprocessAmongthemanywhogaveunqualifiedsupport,someappearinginthechapterstofollow,are:VladimirKoblov,EvgenyVitkovsky,AnatolyKiselev,OlegandNataliaGapanovich,AnatolyTurchak,DmitrySergeyev,andAlexanderandVeraKuznetsovTheyremainfriendswhosemindsweretornbythemassivechangestheyexperiencedIcontinuetoseethemandcherishtheirfriendshipsAmongthemanyclientswhovisitedRussiaandChinawithme,severalwerenotablestalwartsPerhapsDavidFeldman,thenatATT,andGordonBinns,thenofGeneralMotors,willnotmindifIidentifythem,violatingtheruleofanonymityandrecognizingtheirfullcommitmentinthequestforinvestmentreturnfromthelessthanobviousplacesandasrolemodelsforournewfriendsinthesecountriesIwasfortunatetohaveanumberoffriendswhogavemetheircounsel,time,and,attimes,sharpcritiqueTwostandoutinthisgroupCharlesEllis,founderofGreenwichResearch,isalifelongfriendwhohassharedmanyadventureswithme,nonegreaterthanthisandnonewhereIneededhimmoreCharleyblurtedoutinacrowdeddacha,“Golly,Dean,theyreallythinkyoucansolvetheproblems”AndWilliamWirth,thenheadofassetmanagementatCreditSuisse,alsosharesadventureswithmewhichoftenmeansheinitiatesandItagalongHejoinedmeforahistoricjointRussianJapanesecosmonautlaunchattheBaikonur(nowKhrunichev)SpaceCenterWenoticedthefirstspacebillboardthelargeletters“SONY”onthesideoftherocketCommercialconsequenceswerestartingAndWilliamandIhavegonetoChinatogethertomonitorthecontinuationofthatmiracle,withitsfitsandstartsCharley’sandWilliam’sadvice,especiallyinthisearlyperiod,wasonthemarkCounterpartsinourChinaeffortincludeMsYinYafeiandMrLawrenceSpeidell,aswellasMrStevenFangfromChinaMerchantsHoldingCompanyandMrMaXuesongfromthediplomaticserviceinBeijing,whobothinternedwithusinBostonOtherChinesefriendswhogaveustheirearlyblessingsincludeMrLouJiwei,whorecommendedmetoleadingpeopleinShanghai,andMsChenYu,whowasextremelyhelpfulinthesamecityxACKNOWLEDGMENTSCCCLeBaronFM(ixxii):PMPagexTheconversationsrecountedinthisbookwereoftenfacilitatedbyourtranslatorsandbilingualstaffthemoreskillfulthetranslation,thelessvisiblethetranslatorTheyskillfullytranslatednotonlyspokendialogue,butalsowrittencorrespondenceanddocumentsfromortotheRussianCyrillicorChinesecharacteralphabetsYouwillalsonotethatsomewordsaretransliteratedtotheRomanalphabetsotheycanbepronouncedastheysoundintheoriginalRussianorChineseOurtranslatorsremovedthelanguagebarrierandmadetheprocessfluidMythankstotheseparticipantswhoseverygoodworkrenderstheminvisibleForbothcountries,Iutilizedtheadviceoffriendsandclients,someofwhomaccompaniedmeonvisitstoRussia,Ukraine,andChinawhenIhardlyknewwhattotellthemtheprogramwouldbeTheybravelyextendedtheirhelp,whichlandedsomeoftheminthemiddleoftheattemptedcoupinMoscowNonecomplainedTheymademethebeneficiaryofinvaluableadviceFinally,IofferdeepappreciationtomyBatterymarchcolleagues,whounderstoodwhatIwantedtodoandwhoassumedextraburdensandtookextraheatwhileIwasontheroadtryingtodoitMyspecialthanksgotoMarilynPitchford,whowasmuchmorethanBatterymarch’schieffinancialofficeratthetimeDisplayinguncommondevotion,shenotonlytraveledtoRussiaandChina,butalsoactedaschiefofstafftothesupporttroopsastheysoldieredonintryingconditionsHertasks,whichoftenrequiredinterminablehours,rangedfrompreparingourmonthlyflight,aminiBerlinAirlift,tomakingRussianandChinesebusinessplansresemblesomethingworthyofthenameIfIhadtheimpossibletaskofpointingtotheonepersonwhomadeBatterymarch’seffortswork,MarilynwouldgetmynodShecontinuestobemyclosestassociateineveryventureIundertakeandmakesmelookbetterthanIdeserveDLAcknowledgmentsxiCCCLeBaronFM(ixxii):PMPagexiCCCLeBaronFM(ixxii):PMPagexiiPrefaceIF,ASTHECHINESESAY,ajourneyofathousandmilesstartswithasinglestep,thenthisbookbeganwithatriptothePeople’sRepublicofChinainThatspring,IjoinedoneofthefirstUStourgroupstovisitsinceOctober,whenMaoZedong’sCommunistPartyseizedcontrolandeffectivelyclosedthecountrytoWesternersAmongthestopsonourtripwasatradeexpositioninShanghai,acityofaboutmillionpeopleontheHuangpuRiverineasternChinaWedrovealongthefamousBund,awideboulevardthatfollowstheHuangpuandisflankedbynineteenthcenturyEuropeanstylebuildingsthatoncehousedinternationalbanksandtradingcompanies,beforetheyweretakenoverbythegovernmentandusedforofficesFromthewindowsofourdilapidatedbus,wecouldseetheoldnameschiseledintostoneworkandpaintedonpeelingplasterTheShanghaiExhibitionCenter,alargehallbuiltintheornatearchitecturalstylefavoredinStalin’sSovietUnion,containedalargeexhibitofChineseproductsAtaboothdisplayingwoventextiles,amemberofourgroupasked,throughaninterpreter,ifhecouldbuyoneofthesamples“Buy”respondedthemaninthebooth,appearingpuzzledThen,alightsuddenlydawnedWithinminutes,hewasproducingsampleaftersampleforourinspection,accompanyingeachwithpatteraboutitsqualxiiiity,beauty,andvalueIwatchedhimscanourfacesforreactionstohissuggested,thenquicklyrevised,pricesThirtyyearsofcommunismhadnotdestroyedhisinstinctfortradeNearlyyearslater,inthefallof,IhadasimilarexperienceinwhatwasthentheUnionofSovietSocialistRepublics(USSR),whereIwastheguestofgovernmentofficialsOneofthemdrovemetoMoscow’sRedSquareandparkedhiscar,butinsteadoftakingmeintothehugeplaza,heguidedmedownastreetleadingawayfromit“IthoughtyouweregoingtoshowmeRedSquare,”Isaid“Notthesquare,notexactly,”hereplied“ThisiswhatIwantyoutosee”HepointeddownKuibyshevStreettoasmall,stout,threestorybuildingwithenormousIoniccolumnsandagabledendfrontingthestreetTheoncegrandbuildingbadlyneededsprucingup,butthelionscarvedintothemassivewoodendoorwereintact“That,”myguideconfided,“wastheBirzha,theRussianstockexchange”Tuckedinapassagebetweenwarehouses,KuibyshevStreet,formerlyIlinka,hadbeentsaristRussia’sWallStreet,itsbuildingsadornedwithadvertisementsforbanks,financialexchanges,andothercommercialinstitutionsTheBolsheviksabolishedthoseenterprises,whoseonceornatesignsyieldedtoclaretcoloredmetalplatesnamingtheofficesofthenewtenants:highpartyandgovernmentofficialsMyfrienddidnotneedtoexplainwhyhehadbroughtmethereThemessagewasclearStill,hedottedthe“i”“Look,”hesaid,“weRussiansmayhavemadeamessofitforatime,butIwantedyoutoseethatyou’renotthefirstcapitalisttoconductbusinessinRedSquare”IhadnoticedthatboldnesscharacterizedtheSovietleaderswemetOftenfacedwithacompletelackofeitherresourcesorstrategicposition,theSovietministersandenterprisedirectorsdisplayedconfidence,evenbravadoAndtheyusuallygotawaywithitSodidIinasmallbutmemorableincidentinthefallofduringmyfirstvisittoLeningrad,ahistoriccityfoundedbyPetertheGreatinRisingfromtheswampsontheshoresoftheBalticandsiteofthehorrendousdayNazisiegeduringWorldWarII,Leningradisaproudcity,beautifulandcosmopolitanWeweretovisititslargestenterprises:Leninetz,the“GeneralElectric”oftheSovietUnionandKirovWorks,amanufactureroftanks,tractors,andothervehiclestheSovietequivalentofFordMotor’sBentonHarborworkswherecokeandironorearedepositedinonesideoftheplantandcompletedvehiclesaredrivenouttheotherxivPREFACEOurgroupwasratherlarge:sixAmericansfromBatterymarchformingtheadvanceteamdevelopingourSovietCompaniesFundandadozenSovietministers,translators,and,mostlikely,aKGBagentortwoBecauseofourVIPstatus,wetraveledinaparadeofvehicleswiththestatusoftheoccupantdeterminingthestyleofcarandlevelofluxuryTrafficwashaltedtoletuspassaswespedthroughthecityfollowingourwhitepolicecarescortThenightofourarrival,wecheckedintoourhotelandwereassignedanentirefloor,completewithafloormatronstationedbetweenthericketyelevatorsandthehallforbedroomsAmericansononesideofthehallandRussiansontheotherRoomswereassignedaccordingtorank,andminewasatthefarenddirectlyoppositethatofEvgenyVitkovsky,theseniorministeraccompanyingusIncaseIneededatranslator,Batterymarch’snewestemployee,ayoungwomanfluentinRussianandanaccountantbytraining,wasassignedtheroomnexttomineInthemiddleofthenightIstirredandheadedtothebathroominmyroomBlearyeyed,Iopenedthedooritseemedoddthatthelightwason,but,thinkingnothingmoreaboutit,IclosedthedoorbehindmeIheardaclickthatsuggestedalockwasbeingsetItwasIwasstandinginthehall,mydoorwaslocked,andIwasnakedMydrowsinessclearedimmediatelyIwasintroubleCharacteristically,ItravelwithaslittleclothingandaccessoriesaspossibleIfonecandowithoutpajamas,itisthatmuchlessweighttocarryThiswasanoccasion,though,whenIwouldhavepreferredtheburdensofextrabaggageIfirstneededcover,buttherewasnothinginsightEventhefloormatronwasnotatherstationattheendofthecorridorThinkingImightgetatoweltowraparoundmywaist,IrappedverysoftlyonthedooroftheBatterymarchemployeeintheroomnexttomine,notwantingtoawakenVitkovskyacrossthehallWhethersheheardmeornot,Idon’tknowQuitepossiblyanewemployeeonherfirstcompanyassignment,lookingthroughthepeepholeandseeingherbossstandingnakedinthehall,wouldreasonablyhaveconcludedthatherwisestdecisionwouldbenottorespondTherewasnothingformetodobutadopttheattitudeofaSovietleaderbrazenitoutShouldersback,IheadedtotheelevatorandrodedowntothelobbyIwalkedtothefrontdeskwhereseveralladybookkeeperswhereworkingonthebillsandaskedforakey,apologizingformylackofidentificationIwastold:“Ithappensallthetime”Takingthekey,IstrodebacktotheelevatoracutelyconsciousofmaintainingmybestpostureandreturnedtomyroomNoharmdonenotcountingaslightwoundtomydignityPrefacexvItwasapersonalparableworthyoftheSoviets:Whenyouarestuckwithoutcover,pretendyoudon’tneedit✯✯✯IDIDNOTTRAVELtoChinaorRussiaintendingtowriteabouteitheroneCuriosityaboutaculturethathadbeenclosedtoWesternersforyearsfirstdrewmetoChinaasatourist,andaserendipitousinvitationfromtheGorbachevgovernmentspurredmetovisitRussiaButitwasmyfascinationwiththetremendousforceofthechangesunderwayinbothcountriesthatcompelledmetoreturnandeventuallytoparticipateintheireconomicrevolutionsAsanAmerican,acapitalist,aninstitutionalmoneymanager,andanoptimist,IwantedthemtosucceedTheinterestsoftheUnitedStatesareoptimallyservedinaworldthatisstableandatpeaceCapitalismthrivesmostvigorouslywhenitisnotconstrainedbypoliticalboundariesThecompanyIfoundedin(andsoldin),BatterymarchFinancialManagement,handledatthetimemorethan$billionforinstitutionalclients,primarilycorporateandstatepensionfundsThen,asnow,itoperatedbestwhenthatcapitalwasfreetoseekopportunitywhereveritmightexistBatterymarchinvestedinWesternEuropeandtheUnitedStates,aswellasinArgentina,Brazil,Chile,India,Mexico,Venezuela,andotherdevelopingmarketsAsarule,thosecountriesarenotthericheconomicmarketsfeaturedinthefinancialpressBatterymarchwastherebecauseIamacontrarianinvestor,andcontrarians’actionsarenotdictatedbyconventionalwisdomWhenmostinvestorsarebuyingrealestate,contrariansbuysomethingelseTheybelieve,asHumphreyNeillnotedinhisseminalbook,TheArtofContraryThinking,thatwhen“everyonethinksalike,everyoneislikelytobewrong”MyinterestincontrarianthinkinggerminatedmorethanyearsagowhileIwasstudyingattheHarvardBusinessSchool,whichpioneeredthecasestudymethodofteachingGroupsofstudentsanalyzedacaseandreachedanoftenincorrectconclusionbecausetheymissedthesubtlepointonwhichthecaseturnedIwasstruckbyhowoftenthemajoritymanagedtobewrongacondition,Isoonobserved,asprevalentintherealworldasatHarvardPeopleareoftenluredtothemajorityview,evenwhendoingsorequiresthemtoignorewhattheyclearlyobserveortoabandontheirethicalandmoralprinciplesContrarianismisuniquebecauseitdoesn’tattempttotellpeoplewhattheyshoulddo,onlywhattheyshouldnotIfeveryoneisbuyingxviPREFACEbiotechnologystocks,contrariansknowtoleavethosestocksaloneortosellthem,iftheyownany,andbuysomethingelseBuywhatContrarianthoughtwillnotsupplythealternativeItteachesonlythatfollowingthecrowdisn’tgoodyoumustthinkforyourselfAtBatterymarchwelookedfortechniquesthatthemarketshadnotyetappliedindexingandcomputerizedtradinginthes,forexampleandinvestmentregionsthatwerenotyetfavorites,suchasBrazilandIndiainthesForexample,severalyearsagoourresearchdiscoveredthatpubliccompaniesoperatinginemergingnations,suchasArgentina,Chile,andIndia,werecollectivelyproducingpercentoftheworld’sgrossdomesticproduct(GDP),butwereaccordedbyglobalequitymarketslessthanpercentoftheworld’stotalcorporatevaluationToacontrarian,suchdisparityrepresentsopportunityWeknewthateventually,whenotherinvestorsdiscoveredthediscrepancyandbidupthemarketpricesoftheundervaluedcompanies,earlyinvestorswouldberewardedWhatIsawinChinaandRussiasuggestedthatsimilaropportunitiesexistedinbothcountries✯✯✯THISBOOKISACHRONICLE,ahandbook,

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