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首页 [瑞典]卡尔·贡纳·佩松:欧洲谷物市场,1500—1900:整合与解控(剑桥 2004)

[瑞典]卡尔·贡纳·佩松:欧洲谷物市场,1500—1900:整合与解控(剑桥 2004)

[瑞典]卡尔·贡纳·佩松:欧洲谷物市场,1500—1900:整…

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简介:本文档为《[瑞典]卡尔·贡纳·佩松:欧洲谷物市场,1500—1900:整合与解控(剑桥 2004)pdf》,可适用于人文社科领域

ThispageintentionallyleftblankGrainMarketsinEurope,–KarlGunnarPerssonsurveysabroadsweepofeconomichistory,examiningoneofthemostcrucialmarkets–grainHisanalysisallowshimtodrawmoregenerallessons–forexample,thatliberalisationofmarketswaslinkedtopoliticalauthoritarianismGrainMarketsinEurope,–tracesearlyregulationtopoorperformanceandfrequentmarketfailuresPricevolatilitycausedbyharvestshockswasofmajorconcernforcentralandlocalgovernmentbecauseoftheunrestitcausedRegulationbecameobsoletewhenmarketsbecamemoreintegratedandperformedbetterthroughtradetriggeredbyfallingtransportcostsKarlGunnarPersson,aspecialistineconomichistory,usesinsightsfromdevelopmenteconomics,explorescontemporaryeconomicthoughtontheadvantagesoffreetradeandmeasurestheextentofmarketintegrationusingstateofthearteconometricmethodsGrainMarketsinEurope,–willbeofvaluetoscholarsandstudentsineconomichistory,socialhistoryandagriculturalandinstitutionaleconomicsisReaderattheInstituteofEconomics,theUniversityofCopenhagenAformerPresidentoftheEuropeanHistoricalEconomicsSociety,andcurrenteditoroftheEuropeanReviewofEcononicHistory,hehaslecturedwidelyoneconomichistoryHeistheauthorofPreIndustrialEconomicGrowth()andeditorofEconomicDevelopmentofDenmarkandNorwaysince()CambridgeStudiesinModernEconomicHistoryGrainMarketsinEurope,–CAMBRIDGESTUDIESINMODERNECONOMICHISTORYSerieseditorsCharlesFeinstein(AllSoulsCollege,Oxford)PatrickO’Brien(TheInstituteofHistoricalResearch,London)BarrySupple(TheLeverhulmeTrust)PeterTemin(MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology)GianniToniolo(UniversitàdegliStudidiVenezia)CambridgeStudiesinModernEconomicHistoryisamajornewinitiativeineconomichistorypublishing,andaflagshipseriesforCambridgeUniversityPressinanareaofscholarlyactivityinwhichithaslongbeenactiveBooksinthisserieswillprimarilybeconcernedwiththehistoryofeconomicperformance,outputandproductivity,assessingthecharacteristics,causesandconsequencesofeconomicgrowth(andstagnation)inthewesternworldThisrangeofenquiry,ratherthananyonemethodologicaloranalyticapproach,willbethedefiningcharacteristicofvolumesintheseriesThefirsttitlesintheseriesare:CentralandEasternEurope–:detourfromtheperipherytotheperipheryIvanBerendISBNSpanishagriculture:thelongSiesta–JamesSimpsonISBNDemocraticsocialismandeconomicpolicy:theAttleeYears–JimTomlinsonISBNProductivityandperformanceinthepaperindustry:labour,capitalandtechnology,–GaryBryanMageeISBNAneconomichistoryofthesilkindustry,–GiovanniFedericoISBNTheBalkanEconomiesc–MichaelPalairetISBNXGrainmarketsinEurope,–:integrationandderegulationKarlGunnarPerssonISBNTomysonsMårtenandHannesGrainMarketsinEurope,–IntegrationandDeregulationKarlGunnarPerssonUniversityofCopenhagenThePittBuilding,TrumpingtonStreet,Cambridge,UnitedKingdomTheEdinburghBuilding,CambridgeCBRU,UKWestthStreet,NewYork,NY,USAWilliamstownRoad,PortMelbourne,VIC,AustraliaRuizdeAlarcón,Madrid,SpainDockHouse,TheWaterfront,CapeTown,SouthAfricahttp:wwwcambridgeorgFirstpublishedinprintedformatISBNhardbackISBNeBookKarlGunnarPersson(netLibrary)©ContentsListoffigurespagexiListoftablesxiiiPrefacexvAcknowledgementsxviiiListofabbreviationsxxBreadandEnlightenment:thequestforpricestabilityandfreetradeineighteenthcenturyEuropeThebakeroflastresortandhiscriticsAtheoryofpricestabilisationMarketintegration,profitsandincentivesUncertaintyandeffortAshortdigressiononTurgotMarkets,mortalityandhumancapabilitiesWhosuffersfrompriceinstabilityConsumption,capabilitiesandsurvivalDeprivationandthemoraleconomyAppendixHarvestfluctuations,storageandgrainpriceresponsesThepoliticaleconomyofharvestfailuresThenewestimatesTheextentofearlymoderngrainstorageThe‘sevenleanyears’Appendix:notesandsourcestotableMarketfailuresandtheregulationofgrainmarkets:anewinterpretationTechnologicalconstraints,riskandpricevolatilityThepoliticaleconomyofgrainmarketinterventionBreadandgrainPublicgranariesInternationaldisorderandautarchyPubliccrowdingoutofprivatevirtuesixMarketintegrationandthestabilisationofgrainpricesinEurope,–ThemeasurementofmarketintegrationAnequilibriumerrorcorrectionmodelThedeclineinpricevolatilityAppendixAuthoritarianliberalismandthedeclineofgrainmarketregulationinEurope,–Institutionalchange,welfareandefficiencyRoyals,élitesandliberalsSwedishambiguityandTuscanrobustnessFrance:thefrailityofreformTwolatecomers:theHabsburgmonarchyandPrussiaThechangingmoodofbureaucraciesandtheirsubjectsThecampaignforafreemarketinearlynineteenthcenturyFranceandSwedenThedeclineofthefoodriotTheContinentintheEnglishmirrorSourcesBibliographyIndexxContentsListoffiguresTotalrevenueofarepresentativefarmerpageNominalincomeandgrainconsumptionofarepresentativesmallholderFoodconsumptionandindividualsurvivalprobabilityCrudedeathratesandinfantdeaths,–AshiftinthesurvivalfunctionAHealth,consumptionandpersonalconstitutionAArectangulardistributionofpersonalconstitutionAAstrictlyconcavesurvivalfunctionAAsinglepeakeddistributionofpersonalconstitutionAAshiftinthedistributionofpersonalconstitutionExpectedgrossreturnanditsstandarddeviationfromstorageofwheat,Siena,CologneandPisa,–Residualvariationofbreadpricesasapercentageoftheresidualvariationinryeprice,Cologne,–Monthlyobservationsofwheatprices,PisaandSiena,–Monthlyobservationsofwheatprices,ArrasandRouen,–LocationofmarkettownsanalysedinthischapterAdjustmentofa‘follower’markettoapriceshockinadominatingmarketMutualadjustmentinpairsofEuropeanmarkets,eighteenthandnineteenthcenturiesPriceofwheat,Toulouse,–and–Standarddeviationoftheresidualinarandomwalkmodelofmonthlywheatprices,Toulouse,–Standarddeviationoftheresidualinarandomwalkmodelofmonthlywheatprices,Pisa,–AThelevelofthewheatprice,Pisa,–AThelogofthewheatprice,Pisa,–AThedifferencesofthewheatprice,Pisa,–xiAThemonthlyaverageofthedifferencesofthewheatprice,Pisa,–AThemonthlyvarianceofthedifferencesofthewheatprice,Pisa,–ATheautocorrelationofthewheatprice,Pisa,–AThestandarddeviationoftheerrortermintherecursiveanalysisoftheautoregressivemodelAThestandarddeviationoftheerrortermintherecursiveanalysisofarandomwalkmodelAThelogpriceofwheat,Lyon,–AThelogpriceofwheat,Bordeaux,–AThestationaryrelationbetweenLyonandBordeaux,–xiiListoffiguresTablesEffectsontotalrevenueofoutputshocksunderdifferentmarketconditionspageEffectsofanincreaseingrainoutputonarepresentativefarmerintwotypesofmarketsCorrelationcoefficientsbetweenpricechangesfordifferentagrarianproducts,Pisa–ElasticitiesandpricesimpliedbyexamplesfromDavenant,QuesnayandTurgotEstimatesofelasticities,grain,Europe,sixteenth–nineteenthcenturiesParametervaluesforatrendstationarymodelofEnglishwheatprices,–Analysisoftheresiduals,–Varianceoffuturepriceasafunctionofpresentprice,Englishwheatprices,–Statisticalindicatorsforthepricesofwheat,potatoesandbuttter,Sweden,–StandarddeviationoftheresidualsinarandomwalkmodelofgrainpriceAtypologyofgrainmarketinstitutionsPricevolatilityinregulatedandnonregulatedmarkets,–Resultsfromequilibriumerrorcorrectiontests,Europeancities,sixteenthandseventeenthcenturiesResultsfromequilibriumerrorcorrectiontests,Europeancities,eighteenthcenturyResultsfromequilibriumerrorcorrectiontests,Europeancities,nineteenthcenturyResultsfromequilibriumerrorcorrectiontests,Frenchcities,nineteenthcenturyStandarddeviationoftheresidualinarandomwalkmodelofmonthlyprices,Europeanmarkets,c–cAResultsfromthecointegrationtests,LyonandBordeaux,–xiiiPrefaceThisstudybeganasaninquiryintothehistoricalroots,causesandeffectsofindividualismandeconomicliberalismThemotivatingideawassimplistic,butinstrumentalingettingtheprojectaheadIbelievedthatinstitutionsthrivetotheextentthattheyareusefulanddecaywhenaviableandbetteralternativeemergesThisfamiliarideahasoftenbeenabusedortrivialised,orboth,soIdecidedtoconfrontitbyanalysinganimportantcaseofinstitutionalchange:thedemiseofthesystemofgrainmarketregulationthatdevelopedinmedievalandearlymodernEuropeTheuniformityoftheEuropeanexperienceisstriking,asisthesubsequentintegrationandderegulationofgrainmarketsduringacenturyorsoofreform,whichbeganwiththeEnlightenmentincontinentalEurope(thoughearlierinEngland)Thelogicwasthis:theintegrationofmarketscandowhatregulatedmarketsaresupposedtoaccomplishandsometimesdoaccomplish–makemarketsperformbetterImprovedperformancereferstothewaningofmarketpowerand,moreimportantly,thesuppressionofpricevolatilityProhibitivelyhightransportcostsruledoutmarketintegrationbutwhentechnologicalprogressinthetransportofgoodsandinformationloweredcoststheintegrationofmarketswasstimulatedAsaconsequence,weshouldexpectbothmarketpowerandvolatilitytodeclineandcenturiesofpricestabilisingregulationtocometoanendInapreviousbook,PreIndustrialEconomicGrowth(),Iconjecturedthatthesizeofaneconomy–or,betterperhaps,thenumberofpeopleparticipatinginaneconomy–fosteredeconomicfreedomThereasonforthispresumptionwasthatasthenumberofagentsincreasedtheopportunitiesfor,andadverseeffectsof,collusionandmarketpowerdwindledTheallegeduseorabuseofmarketpowerwasarepeatedcomplaintagainstmarketsandunrestrainedindividualeconomicfreedominthemedievalandearlymodernperiodsItalsoprovidedthemotiveandexcuseforregulatingmarkets,grainmarketsinparticularItwasthespecificcombinationofmarketpowerandselfseekingbehaviourthatwasopposedbecauseofitsdetrimentaleffectsonthewelfareofothersInthisxvhistoricalcontext,theconnectionbetweenintegrationandderegulationbecameparamountOneimportantaspectofintegrationwasthatthesizeoftheeconomyincreasedfromaregionaltoanationalandfinallyaninternationalnetworkThenumberofagentsthereforealsoincreasedandtheimpactofpurelylocalevents–suchasalocalharvestfailure–onlocaloutcomes–prices–wasweakened(IfthereareeconomiesofscaleinternaltofirmsthesizeofthefirmsmightincreasewhenmarketsareintegratedConsequentlythenumberofagentsorfirmsmightnotchangeatallTherisksofmarketpowerwillthereforeremainathreatinthemoderneconomy,andthatiswhythereisstillregulationoutthere)ThatmarketintegrationeffectivelyhaltedcollusionwasoneofthefavouredthemesoftheeighteenthcenturycritiqueoftheprevailingmarketregulationThisisthefocusofchapterofthepresentbookWhilecontemporariesoftenidentifiedanypriceincreaseastheresultofmonopolisticpricerigging,reformersvigorouslyassertedthatanincreaseinthenumberofmerchantswasantitheticaltomarketpowerHowever,theevidencesuggeststhecombinationofharvestshocksandpoorintegrationastheimmediateandmostimportantcauseofpricerisesThefreetradewhichtheeighteenthcenturypoliticaleconomistsfavouredwasasolution–providedtransportcostsfell–becauseharvestshockswerelocalandindependentTradecouldthereforecanceloutexcesssupplyanddemandbetweenregionsandnationsandexploittheadvantagesoflargenessAgoodharvestinoneregionwasusuallymatchedbyashortagesomewhereelse,apoorharvestinoneyearwasfollowedbybumperharvestsinthenearfutureFreetradeandarbitragebetweenhighandlowpriceregionsconsequentlycontributedtopricestabilityandinventoryadjustments,orcarryover,wouldstabilisepricesovertimeTheadvantageofpriceandconsumptionstability–whichwasapermanentandimportantthemeinpreindustrialpoliticaleconomy–hasattractedrenewedinterestfromthemodernanalysisofpovertyandfaminesinunderdevelopednationsThislineofthoughtisdiscussedinchapter,inwhichitisarguedthatthequestforpricestabilitywasaquestforconsumptionstabilitywhichhadwelfareincreasingeffectsConsumptionstabilitywasacentralthemeinpopularagitationasanintegralpartofthe‘moraleconomyofthecrowd’However,itisargued–wearenowinchapter–thatlocalsupplyshocksweresubstantialandhadagreatimpactonlocalpriceswhenmarketswerepoorlyintegratedandbecausegrainstoragewasnotgreatenoughtosmoothvariationsinharvestsTheobviousquestion,then,iswhymarketscouldnotdothejobbymeansofinterregionaltradeandintertemporalinventoryadjustmentsHightransportcosts,ashasalreadyxviPrefacebeenmentioned,preventedanadequateleveloftradeandtheextremelyriskynatureofcarryoverspeculationmadeinventoriesofgrainstoragetoolowChaptercontinuestheargumentbysuggestingthatancienrégimemarketswereperforminginadequatelybecauseofthenegativeexternalitiesgeneratedbypriceinstabilityPriceshocksthreatenedtheentirefabricofearlymodernsociety,byleadingtoanincreaseincrimeandcontributingtothespreadofepidemicswhendearthtriggeredoffwavesofmigrantsAlthoughprivatetradeandstorageledtosomepricestabilisingeffects,theprivateeconomicincentivesandrewardsformerchantswerenotincorporatingthesocialgainsfrompriceandconsumptionstabilityThisdiscrepancybetweenprivateandsocialgainsrevealedanexternalitywhichprovokedamarketfailure:themarketoutcomewasnotthedesiredoutcomeButmarketintegrationsteadilyimprovedoverthecenturies,asshowninchapterMarketscanbesaidtobeintegrated,itisargued,ifthereissomestablepriceratiobetweenthepriceofidenticalgoodsindifferentmarketsIfthepricedifferentialisstableitcanbeinterpretedasthetransportcostbetweenthetwomarkets,themarketwiththelowerpricebeingthenetexporterButitisalsorewardingtoanalysetheextentofmarketintegrationbystudyingthespeedofadjustmentbacktothatstablepriceratiobetweenmarketsafterashockinonemarketexperiencing,say,aharvestfailureItturnsoutthatwecandocumentincreasingEuropeanmarketintegrationfromtheseventeenthcenturyandaverydramatictransformationinthenineteenthcenturyTheEnlightenmentintuitionsuggestingthepricestabilisingeffectsofmarketintegrationcanalsobecorroboratedDidtheimprovedperformanceofintegratedmarketsbringdownregulationwhenmarketscoulddeliverpricestabilityInawayitdid,thoughperhapsnotinthestraightforwardwayIhadimaginedwhenIembarkeduponthisprojectExactlyhowregulationwasdismantledisdiscussedinchapterThetitleofthatchapterrevealsaninterestingparadox,andperhapsonewithwiderimplications:liberalismneededauthoritarianruletogetestablishedandalongexperienceandacknowledgementofwellbehavedmarketstobecomewidelyacceptedPrefacexviiAcknowledgementsIthasbeenarealpleasurewritingthisbookIthastakenmetotheresearchcentresandcitiesIlikemost:theBritishLibraryandGoldsmithLibraryinLondon,BibliothèqueNationaleandArchivesNationalesinParisandBibliotecaNazionaleinFlorenceAgainandagainIhadtheprivilegeofbeingaccommodatedbyCentreCulturelSuèdoiswhileinParisTheeconomicsupportfromtheDanishSocialScienceResearchFoundationmadetheresearchforthebook,theprocessingofvastamountsofdataandtheaccompanyingtravelpossibleThefinancialandmoralsupportoftheInstituteofEconomics,UniversityofCopenhagen,hasbeenofgreathelpIhaveenjoyedthehospitalityofLondonSchoolofEconomics,KatholiekeUniversiteitinLeuven,EuropeanUniversityInstituteinFlorenceandtheResearchSchoolofSocialScienceattheAustralianNationalUniversityBillKennedy,HermanvanderWee,AlbertCarrerasandGraemeSnooksnotonlyarrangedthesevisitsbuthadtimeforstimulatingdiscussionsAninformalnetworkofscholarsworkinginthefieldofmarketintegrationhasbeenexposedtomyattemptstocometogripswiththecomplexitiesofmysubjectovertheyearsIfithadnotbeenforthepleasantsurroundingsofLericiandotherconferencespotslifewouldhavebeenharderIhavealsolearntalotfromparticipantsineconomichistoryseminarsattheuniversitiesofAalborg,BritishColumbia,California–Davis,Copenhagen,Gothenburg,Leuven,Lund,Stockholm,Sydney,Utrecht,AustralianNationalUniversityinCanberra,CarlosIIIinMadrid,EuropeanUniversityInstituteinFlorence,HarvardUniversityandNorthwesternUniversityEarlyoninmyresearchIwasintroducedtocointegrationandequilibriumerrorcorrectionmodellingbythebestofguides,KatarinaJuselius,whoalsohelpedmyfirstassistantKarstenStrøbækwiththeeconometricsoftwareLaterMetteEjrnæstookoverasresearchassistantandhassincebecomearesearcherinherownrightSheistheauthorofthetechnicalappendixtochapterLibrarianVibekeRinghashelpedmeinresearchingandorganisingthebibliographyxviiiPaoloMalanimaandJanToreKlovlandhavegenerouslysuppliedmewiththeirunpublishedpricedataTheeditorsofEconomicHistoryReviewandScandinavianEconomicHistoryReviewhavepermittedmetousepreviouslypublishedmaterialStanleyEngerman,thelateLennartJörbergandCormacÓGrádareadtheentiremanuscriptGiovanniFederico,LarsHerlitz,BetrandRoehnerandPeterSkottreadpartsofitIamindebtedtoallofthemandtotwoanonymousrefereesfortheircommentsandsuggestionswhichhaveimprovedthequalityoftheproductconsiderablyWritingabookinyoursecondlanguage,Swedishbeingmymothertongue,gives

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[瑞典]卡尔·贡纳·佩松:欧洲谷物市场,1500—1900:整合与解控(剑桥 2004)

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