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首页 索罗斯在中金论坛的演讲记录

索罗斯在中金论坛的演讲记录

索罗斯在中金论坛的演讲记录

liulangs
2008-12-11 0人阅读 举报 0 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《索罗斯在中金论坛的演讲记录pdf》,可适用于经济金融领域

中金论坛CICCForumTapedSpeechToBePresentedOnFriday,NovemberinBeijing,ChinaYouhaveaskedmetoexplainthecrisisthathasengulfedtheglobalfinancialsystemI’lldomybestThesalientfeatureofthecrisisisthatitwasnotcausedbysomeextraneouseventsuchastheOPECraisingthepriceofoilitwasgeneratedbythefinancialsystemitselfThisfactthatthedefectwasinherentinthesystemdiscreditstheprevailingtheory,whichholdsthatfinancialmarketstendtowardequilibrium,andthatdeviationsfromtheequilibriumarecausedbysomesuddenexternalshockwhichmarketshavedifficultyadjustingtoIhavedevelopedanalternativetheorythatdiffersfromthecurrentoneintwoimportantrespectsFirst,financialmarketsdon’treflecttheunderlyingconditionsaccuratelyTheyprovideapicturethatisalwaysbiasedordistortedinsomewayoranotherSecond,thedistortedviewsheldbymarketparticipantsandexpressedinmarketpricescan,undercertaincircumstances,affectthesocalledfundamentalsthatmarketpricesaresupposedtoreflectIcallthistwowaycircularconnectionbetweenmarketpricesandtheunderlyingreality‘reflexivity’IcontendthatfinancialmarketsarealwaysreflexiveandonoccasiontheycanveerquitefarawayfromthesocalledequilibriumWhilemarketsarereflexiveatalltimes,financialcrisesoccuronlyoccasionally,andinveryspecialcircumstancesUsuallymarketscorrecttheirownmistakes,butoccasionallythereisamisconceptionormisinterpretationthatfindsawaytoreinforceatrendthatisrealandbydoingsoitalsoreinforcesitselfSuchselfreinforcingprocessesmaycarrymarketsintofarfromequilibriumterritoryUnlesssomethinghappenstoabortthereflexiveinteractionsooner,itmaypersistuntilthemisconceptionbecomessoglaringthatithastoberecognizedassuchWhenthathappensthetrendbecomesunsustainableandwhenitisreversedtheselfreinforcingprocessstartsworkingintheoppositedirection,causingacatastrophicdownturnThetypicalsequenceofboomandbusthasanasymmetricshapeTheboomdevelopsslowlyandacceleratesgraduallyThebust,whenitoccurs,tendstobeshortandsharpTheasymmetryisduetotherolethatcreditplaysAspricesrise,thesamecollateralcansupportagreateramountofcreditAndrisingpricesalsotendtogenerateoptimismandencourageagreateruseofcreditAtthepeakoftheboomboththevalueofthecollateralandthedegreeofleverageare,bydefinition,atapeakWhenthepricetrendisreversedparticipantsarevulnerabletomargincallsand,aswehaveseenrecently,theforcedliquidationofcollateralleadstoacatastrophicaccelerationonthedownsideThusbubbleshavetwocomponents:atrendthatprevailsinrealityandamisconceptionrelatingtothattrendThesimplestandmostcommonexampleistobefoundinrealestateThetrendconsistsofanincreasedwillingnesstolendandariseinthepriceofrealestateThemisconceptionisthatthepriceofrealestateissomehowindependentofthewillingnesstolendThatmisconceptionencouragesbankerstobecomemorelaxintheirlendingpracticesaspricesriseanddefaultsonmortgagepaymentsdiminishThatishowrealestatebubbles,includingtherecenthousingbubbleintheUnitedStates,arebornItisremarkablehowthe中金论坛CICCForummisconceptioncontinuestorecurinvariousguisesinspiteofalonghistoryofrealestatebubblesburstingBubblesarenottheonlymanifestationsofreflexivityinfinancialmarkets,buttheyarethemostspectacularBubblesalwaysinvolvetheexpansionandcontractionofcreditandtheytendtohavecatastrophicconsequencesSincefinancialmarketsarepronetoproducebubblesandbubblescausetrouble,financialmarketshavebecomeregulatedbythefinancialauthoritiesIntheUnitedStatestheyincludetheFederalReserve,theTreasury,theSecuritiesandExchangeCommission,andmanyotheragenciesIt’simportanttorecognizethatregulatorsbasetheirdecisionsonadistortedviewofrealityjustasmuchasmarketparticipantsperhapsevenmoresobecauseregulatorsarenotonlyhumanbutalsobureaucraticandsubjecttopoliticalinfluencesSotheinterplaybetweenregulatorsandmarketparticipantsisalsoreflexiveincharacterIncontrasttobubbles,whichoccuronlyinfrequently,thecatandmousegamebetweenmarketsandregulatorsgoesoncontinuouslyAsaconsequencereflexivityisatworkatalltimesanditisamistaketoignoreitsinfluenceYetthatisexactlywhattheprevailingtheoryoffinancialmarketshasdoneandthatmistakeisultimatelyresponsiblefortheseverityofthecurrentcrisisIhaveoriginallyproposedmytheoryoffinancialmarketsinmyfirstbook,TheAlchemyofFinance,publishedinandIbroughtituptodateinmylatestbookTheNewParadigmforFinancialMarkets:TheCreditCrisisofandWhatItMeansInthatbook,IarguethatthecurrentcrisisdiffersfromthevariousfinancialcrisesthathaveprecededitIbasethatassertiononthehypothesisthattheexplosionoftheUShousingbubbleactedasadetonatorofamuchlarger"superbubble"thathasbeendevelopingsincethesThehousingbubbleissimplethesuperbubbleismuchmorecomplicatedTheunderlyingtrendinthesuperbubblehasbeentheeverincreasinguseofcreditandleverageIntheUnitedStates,credithasbeengrowingatamuchfasterratethanthegrossnationalproducteversincetheendofWorldWarIIButtherateofgrowthacceleratedandtookonthecharacteristicsofabubbleintheswhenitwasreinforcedbyamisconceptionthatbecamedominantwhenRonaldReaganbecamepresidentandMargaretThatcherwasprimeministerintheUnitedKingdomThemisconceptionisderivedfromtheprevailingtheoryoffinancialmarkets,which,asImentioned,holdsthatfinancialmarketstendtowardequilibriumanddeviationsarerandomandcanbeattributedtoexternalcausesThistheoryhasbeenusedtojustifythebeliefthatthepursuitofselfinterestshouldbegivenfreereinandmarketsshouldbederegulatedIcallthatbeliefmarketfundamentalismandIcontendthatitisbasedonafalseargumentJustbecauseregulationsandallotherformsofgovernmentalinterventionshaveproventobefaulty,itdoesnotfollowthatmarketsareperfectAlthoughmarketfundamentalismisbasedonfalsepremises,ithasservedtheinterestsoftheownersandmanagersoffinancialcapitalverywellTheglobalizationoffinancialmarketshasallowedfinancialcapitaltomovearoundfreelyandmadeitdifficultforindividualstatestotaxitorregulateitDeregulationoffinancialtransactionsandthefreedomtoinnovatehaveenhanced中金论坛CICCForumtheprofitabilityoffinancialenterprisesThefinancialindustrygrewtoapointwhereitproducedaboutathirdofallcorporateprofitsbothintheUnitedStatesandintheUnitedKingdomSincemarketfundamentalismisbuiltonfalseassumptions,itsadoptioninthesastheguidingprincipleofeconomicpolicywasboundtohaveadverseconsequencesIndeed,wehaveexperiencedaseriesoffinancialcrisessincethen,butthenegativeconsequencesweresufferedprincipallybythecountriesthatlieattheperipheryoftheglobalfinancialsystem,notbythoseatthecenterThat’sbecausethesystemisunderthecontrolofthedevelopedcountries,especiallytheUnitedStates,whichenjoysvetorightsintheInternationalMonetaryFundWheneveracrisisendangeredtheprosperityoftheUnitedStatesasforexamplethesavingsandloancrisisinthelates,orthecollapseofthehedgefundLongTermCapitalManagementintheauthoritiesintervened,findingwaystobailoutthefailinginstitutionsandprovidingmonetaryandfiscalstimuluswhenthepaceofeconomicactivitywasendangeredThustheperiodiccrisesserved,ineffect,assuccessfulteststhatreinforcedboththeunderlyingtrendofevergreatercreditexpansionandtheprevailingmisconceptionthatfinancialmarketsshouldbelefttotheirowndevicesItwasofcoursetheinterventionofthefinancialauthoritiesthatmadethetestssuccessful,nottheabilityoffinancialmarketstocorrecttheirownexcessesButitwasconvenientforinvestorsandgovernmentstodeceivethemselvesTherelativesafetyandstabilityoftheUnitedStates,comparedtothecountriesattheperiphery,allowedtheUnitedStatestosuckupthesavingsoftherestoftheworldandrunacurrentaccountdeficitthatreachedpercentofGNPatitspeakinthefirstquarterofEventuallyeventheFederalReserveandotherregulatorssuccumbedtothemarketfundamentalistideologyandabdicatedtheirresponsibilitytoregulateTheyoughttohaveknownbettersinceitwastheiractionsthatkepttheUnitedStateseconomyonanevenkeelAlanGreenspan,inparticular,believedthatgivingfinancialinnovationsfreereinbroughtsuchgreatbenefitsthathavingtocleanupbehindtheoccasionalfinancialmishapwasasmallpricetopayforthegaininproductivityAndwhilethesuperbubblelastedhisanalysisofthecostsandbenefitsofhispermissivepolicieswasnottotallywrongOnlynowhashebeenforcedtoacknowledgethattherewasaflawinhisargumentFinancialengineeringinvolvedthecreationofsyntheticfinancialinstrumentsforleveragingcreditwithnameslikeCollateralDebtObligationsandCreditDefaultSwapsItalsoinvolvedincreasinglysophisticatedmathematicalmodelsforcalculatingrisksinordertomaximizeprofitsThisengineeringreachedsuchheightsofcomplexitythattheregulatorscouldnolongercalculatetherisksandcametorelyontheriskmanagementmodelsofthefinancialinstitutionsthemselvesTheratingagenciesfollowedasimilarpathinratingsyntheticfinancialinstruments,theyreliedoninformationprovidedbytheissuinghousesandtheyderivedconsiderableadditionalrevenuesfromtheincreaseintheirbusinessTheesotericfinancialinstrumentsandsophisticatedtechniquesforriskmanagementwerebasedonthefalsepremisethatdeviationsfromtheequilibriumoccurinarandomfashionButtheincreaseduseoffinancialengineeringdisturbedthesocalledequilibriumbysettinginmotionaselfreinforcingprocessofcreditexpansionSoeventuallytherewashelltopayAtfirsttheoccasional中金论坛CICCForumfinancialcrisesservedassuccessfultestsButthesubprimecrisiscametoplayadifferentrole:itservedastheculminationorreversalpointofthesuperbubbleItshouldbeemphasizedthatthisinterpretationofthecurrentsituationontheburstingofthesuperbubbledoesnotnecessarilyfollowfrommytheoryofreflexivityHadthefinancialauthoritiessucceededincontainingthesubprimecrisisastheythoughtatthetimetheywouldbeabletodothiswouldhavebeenseenasjustanothersuccessfultestinsteadofthereversalpointMytheoryofreflexivitycanexplaineventsbetterthanitcanpredictthemItislessambitiousthantheprevioustheoryItdoesn’tclaimtodeterminetheoutcomeasequilibriumtheorydoesItcanassertthataboommusteventuallyleadtoabust,butitcannotdeterminetheextentoforthedurationofaboomIndeed,thoseofuswhorecognizedthattherewasahousingbubbleexpectedittoburstmuchsoonerHaditdoneso,thedamagewouldhavebeenmuchsmallerandauthoritiesmighthavebeenabletokeepthesuperbubblegoingMostofthedamagewascausedbymortgagerelatedsecuritiesissuedinthelasttwoyearsofthehousingbubbleThefactthatthenewparadigmdoesn’tclaimtopredictthefutureexplainswhyitdidnotmakeanyheadwayuntilnow,butinlightoftherecentexperienceitcannolongerbeignoredWemustcometotermswiththefactthatreflexivityintroducesanelementofuncertaintyintofinancialmarketsthattheprevioustheoryleftoutofaccountThattheorywasusedtoestablishmathematicalmodelsforcalculatingriskandconvertingbundlesofsubprimemortgagesintotradablesecuritiesButtheuncertaintyconnectedwithreflexivitycan’tbequantifiedExcessiverelianceonthosemathematicalmodelsdiduntoldharmInmybook,IpredictedthatthecurrentfinancialcrisiswouldbetheworstsincethesbuttheactualcourseofeventsactuallyexceededmyworstexpectationsWhenLehmanBrothersdeclaredbankruptcyonSeptember,theinconceivableoccurred:thefinancialsystemactuallymelteddownAlargemoneymarketfundthathadinvestedincommercialpaperissuedbyLehmanBrotherslostpartofitsassetvalue,therebybreakinganimplicitpromisethatdepositsinsuchfundsaretotallysafeandliquidThisstartedarunonmoneymarketfundsandforcedthefundstostopbuyingcommercialpaperSincetheywerethelargestbuyers,thecommercialpapermarketceasedtofunctionTheissuersofcommercialpaper,whichincludethelargestandmostrespectedcorporations,wereforcedtodrawdowntheircreditlines,bringinginterbanklendingtoastandstillCreditspreadsthatistosay,theriskpremiumoverandabovetherisklessrateofinterestwidenedtounprecedentedlevelsandeventuallythestockmarketalsowasoverwhelmedbypanicAllthishappenedinthespaceofaweekTheworldeconomyisstillreelingfromtheaftereffectsResuscitatingthefinancialsystemthentookprecedenceoverallotherconsiderationsandtheauthoritiesinjectedeverlargerquantitiesofmoneyThebalancesheetoftheFederalReserveballoonedfrom$billionto$trillioninacoupleofweeksWhenthatwasnotenough,theAmericanandEuropeanfinancialauthoritiespubliclypledgedthemselves,thattheywouldnotallowanyothermajorfinancialinstitutiontofailTheseunprecedentedmeasuresbegantohavesomeeffect:interbanklendingresumedandtheLondonInterbankOfferedRate(LIBOR)improvedThe中金论坛CICCForumfinancialcrisisshowedsignsofabatingButguaranteeingthatthebanksatthecenteroftheglobalfinancialsystemwillnotfailhasprecipitatedanewcrisisthatcaughttheauthoritiesunawares:countriesattheperiphery,whetherinEasternEurope,Asia,orLatinAmerica,couldn’toffersimilarcredibleguarantees,andfinancialcapitalstartedfleeingfromtheperipherytothecenterAllcurrenciesfellagainstthedollarandtheyen,someofthemprecipitouslyCommoditypricesdroppedlikeastoneandinterestratesinemergingmarketssoaredSodidpremiumsoninsuranceagainstcreditdefaultHedgefundsandotherleveragedinvestorssufferedenormouslosses,precipitatingmargincallsandforcedsellingthathavealsospreadtothestockmarketsatthecenterInrecentdays,thecreditmarketshavealsostartedtodeteriorateagainUnfortunatelytheauthoritiesarealwayslaggingbehindeventsTheInternationalMonetaryFundisestablishinganewcreditfacilitythatallowsfinanciallysoundperipherycountriestoborrowwithoutanyconditionsuptofivetimestheirannualquota,butthatistoolittletoolateAmuchlargerpoolofmoneyisneededtoreassuremarketsAndifthetoptierofperipherycountriesissaved,whathappenstothelowertiercountriesTheracetosavetheinternationalfinancialsystemisstillongoingEvenifitissuccessful,consumers,investors,andbusinesseshavesufferedatraumaticshockwhosefullimpactontheglobaleconomicactivityisyettobefeltAdeeprecessionisnowinevitableandthepossibilityofadepressioncomparabletothescannotberuledoutWhataretheimplicationsofthisdiresituationforChinaInmanywaysChinaisbettersituatedthanmostothercountriesIthadbeenthemainbeneficiaryofglobalizationIthasamassedlargecurrencyreserves,itsbankingsystemisrelativelyunscathedandthegovernmentenjoysagreaterrangeofpolicychoicesthanothergovernmentsButChinaisnotimmunefromtheglobalrecessionExportshavedropped,inventoriesofironoreandothercommoditiesareexcessive,thestockmarkethasdeclinedfurtherthaninmostothercountries,andtherealestateboomhasturnedintoabustDomesticdemandneedstobestimulated,butthatisnotenoughChinamustalsoplayaconstructiveroleinstimulatingtheglobaleconomy,otherwiseexportscan’trecoverTheinternationalfinancialinstitutions–theIMFandtheWorldBank–haveanewmissioninlife:Toprotectthecountriesattheperipheryofthesystemfromtheeffectsofafinancialcrisisthathasoriginatedatthecenterofthatsystem,theUnitedStatesTheycannotcarryoutthatmissionwithouttheactivesupportofChina,exactlybecauseChinahasaccumulatedtremendouscurrencyreservesFortunatelytheUnitedStateshasanewPresidentwhofullyrecognizestheneedforgreaterinternationalcooperationHopefullytheChineseleadershipwillalsorecognizetheneedWhatisinvolvedinsuchcooperationThesuperboomwasfueledbytheUnitedStatesconsumingmorethanitproducedIn,thecurrentaccountdeficitoftheUnitedStatesreachedofitsGNPThedeficitwasfinancedbyChina,otherAsianexportersandsomeoilproducingcountriesaccumulatinglargerandlargerdollarsurplusesThissymbioticrelationshiphasnowendedtheAmericanconsumercannolongerserveasthemotoroftheworldeconomyAnewmotorhastobefoundThatmeansthatChinaandtherestoftheworldmuststimulate中金论坛CICCForumdomesticdemandbyrunningfiscaldeficitsduringtherecessionChinacanaffordtodosobutcountriesattheperipheryoftheglobalfinancialsystemcan’tbecausetheyaresufferingfromanexodusoffinancialcapitalTheexodusmustbestoppedandawaymustbefoundtofinancefiscaldeficitsinperipherycountriesThiscan’tbedonewithoutthehelpofthesurpluscountriesandthelargescalecommitmentofsovereignwealthfundsEventhatmaynotbeenoughbecausethecollapseofcreditandthedestructionofwealtharesoseverethattheremaynotbeenoughmoneyavailableItmaybenecessarytocreateadditionalmoneybytheIMFissuingSpecialDrawingRightsorSDRsInanycase,stimulatingconsumerdemandmaynotbetherightwaytogobecauseitinvolvescreditexpansionforfinancingconsumptionCreditoughttobeusedprimarilyforfinancinginvestmentIbelievethesolutionlieselsewhereTheworldisconfrontinganurgentprobleminglobalwarmingTobringitundercontrolwillrequiretremendousinvestmentsinenergysavingsandalternativeenergysourcesThatoughttoprovidethemotorfortheworldeconomyTomakethatpossibleweneedaninternationalagreementthatwouldimposeaprice

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