女性经济学5.0（中英文）

SinceourinitialWomenomicsreportin1999,Japannowenjoysrecordfemalelaborparticipation(71%)thatsurpassestheUSandEurope,generousparentalleavebenefits,improvedgendertransparency,andlaborreforms.Areasforimprovementinclude:adearthoffemaleleaders,genderpaygaps,inflexiblelaborcontracts,taxdisincentives,insufficientcaregivingcapacity,andunconsciousbiases.However,therewardforpersistenceispotentiallysizeable.Specifically,weestimatethatclosingthegenderemploymentgapcouldliftJapan’sGDPby10%,andina“blue-skyscenario”wheretheratiooffemalevs.maleworkinghoursrisestotheOECDaverage,theGDPboostcouldexpandfurtherto15%.Notimetowaste:RecommendationsSuggestedgovernmentpoliciesinclude:moreflexiblelaborcontracts,genderpaygapdisclosures,taxreforms,parliamentarygenderquotas,promotionoffemaleentrepreneurship,andlooserimmigrationrules.Forcorporations:proactivecareermanagement,moreflexibleworkenvironments,performance-basedevaluations,gendertarget-setting,andmalediversitychampions.SocietyshoulddispelWomenomicsmyths,avoidgenderrolestereotypesinthemedia,andpromotemorewomeninSTEM.Fortunately,tailwindssuchasESGinvestingandshiftingmillennialmaleattitudesshouldfurtheradvanceJapan’sdiversityagenda.KathyMatsui+81(3)6437-9950|kathy.matsui@gs.comGoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.HiromiSuzuki+81(3)6437-9955|hiromi.suzuki@gs.comGoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.KazunoriTatebe+81(3)6437-9898|kazunori.tatebe@gs.comGoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.JapanPortfolioStrategyWomenomics5.0:20YearsOn(Redacted)18April2019|8:18AMJSTwww.gs.com/research/hedge.html.AnalystsemployedbynonUSaffiliatesarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.What’schanged,whathasn’t;potential15%GDPboostTheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.PORTFOLIOSTRATEGYRESEARCH|April18,2019Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgotowww.gs.com/research/hedge.html.TheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.What’schanged,whathasn’t;potential15%GDPboostSinceourinitialWomenomicsreportin1999,Japannowenjoysrecordfemalelaborparticipation(71%)thatsurpassestheUSandEurope,generousparentalleavebenefits,improvedgendertransparency,andlaborreforms.Areasforimprovementinclude:adearthoffemaleleaders,genderpaygaps,inflexiblelaborcontracts,taxdisincentives,insufficientcaregivingcapacity,andunconsciousbiases.However,therewardforpersistenceispotentiallysizeable.Specifically,weestimatethatclosingthegenderemploymentgapcouldliftJapan'sGDPby10%,andina"blue-skyscenario"wheretheratiooffemalevs.maleworkinghoursrisestotheOECDaverage,theGDPboostcouldexpandfurtherto15%.Notimetowaste:RecommendationsSuggestedgovernmentpoliciesinclude:moreflexiblelaborcontracts,genderpaygapdisclosures,taxreforms,parliamentarygenderquotas,promotionoffemaleentrepreneurship,andlooserimmigrationrules.Forcorporations:proactivecareermanagement,moreflexibleworkenvironments,performance-basedevaluations,gendertarget-setting,andmalediversitychampions.SocietyshoulddispelWomenomicsmyths,avoidgenderrolestereotypesinthemedia,andpromotemorewomeninSTEM.Fortunately,tailwindssuchasESGinvestingandshiftingmillennialmaleattitudesshouldfurtheradvanceJapan’sdiversityagenda.KathyMatsui+8136437-9950kathy.matsui@gs.comGoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.HiromiSuzuki+8136437-9955hiromi.suzuki@gs.comGoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.KazunoriTatebe+8136437-9898kazunori.tatebe@gs.comGoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.WOMENOMICS5.0Progress,areasforimprovement,potential15%GDPboost20YEARSONThefollowingisaredactedversionoftheoriginalreport.Seeinsidefordetails.Executivesummary:Womenomicsisworking,butstillmoretodo3WhyWomenomics?Theeconomicandbusinesscase4Progresssince199912Areasforimprovement20Notimetowaste:Recommendationsforgovernment,corporations,society31Tailwinds:ESGandshiftingmillennialattitudes42DisclosureAppendix4718April20192GoldmanSachsJapanPortfolioStrategyTableofContentsNote:Thefollowingisaredactedversionof“Womenomics5.0:20YearsOn”originallypublishedApril16,2019[55pgs].Allcompanyreferencesinthisnoteareforillustrativepurposesonlyandshouldnotbeinterpretedasinvestmentrecommendations.Executivesummary:Womenomicsisworking,butstillmoretodoTwodecadeshavepassedsincewepublishedourfirstreportonWomen-omics:BuytheFemaleEconomy.1In1999,theterm“diversity”wasneitherpartoftheJapanesevernacular,norafocusforthegovernment,companymanagers,orsociety.Fastforwardto2019,andasaresultofwidespreadlaborshortagesandagrowingeconomy,thereisagrowingrealizationthatgenderdiversityintheworkplaceisnolongeranoption,butaneconomicandbusinessimperative.Tomarkthe20thanniversarysinceourinitialWomenomicsresearch,wetakestockofprogressthusfar,identifyareasforimprovement,andproposeconcreterecommendations.1.What’stheeconomicandbusinessrationalebehindWomenomics?Updatingour2014simulationwherebyJapanesefemalelaborparticipationrisestothatofmales,thepotentialboosttoJapan’sGDPcouldbe10%.However,undera“blue-sky”scenario,ifwealsoassumetheratiooffemalevs.maleworkinghoursrisestotheOECDaverage,theGDPboostcouldexpandfurtherto15%.Forbusinesses,JapaneselistedfirmswithhigherfemalemanagerratiostendtodeliverhigherROEsandsalesgrowth.2.Whatprogresshasbeenseensince1999?Overthepasttwodecades,Japanhas:a)seenitsfemalelaborparticipationratiosurgetoarecord71%—surpassingtheUSandEurope,b)introducedoneofthemostgenerousparentalleavebenefitsintheworld,c)improveditsgendertransparency,andd)approvedworkstylereformsthatmandateovertimelimitsandequalpayforequalwork.3.Whatareasstillneedimprovement?Areasthatstillneedworkinclude:a)adearthoffemaleleadersinboththeprivate/publicsectors,b)persistentgenderpaygaps,c)inflexiblelaborcontracts,d)taxdisincentives,e)insufficientcaregivingcapacity,andf)unconsciousbiases.4.Whatshouldthegovernment,corporationsandsocietydonow?Policyrecommendationsinclude:moreflexiblelaborcontracts,genderpaygapdisclosures,taxreforms,parliamentarygenderquotas,promotionoffemaleentrepreneurship,andlooserimmigrationrules.Forcorporations,leadersshouldproactivelymanagewomen’scareers,promotemoreflexibleworkenvironments,shifttoperformance-basedevaluations,setgenderdiversitytargets,andengagemalediversitychampions.SocietyshoulddispelWomenomicsmyths,shiftgenderrolestereotypesinthemedia,andencouragemoregirlsandwomentopursueSTEMeducationandcareers.1SeeourAugust13,1999strategyreport,Womenomics:BuytheFemaleEconomy.18April20193GoldmanSachsJapanPortfolioStrategyThegoodnewsisthattherearetwoimportanttailwindstodaythatwereabsentin1999thatshouldhelpadvancetheWomenomicsagendaoverthenext20years:namely,themajorexpansionofESGinvestingandshiftingattitudesoftheyoungergeneration.WhyWomenomics?TheeconomicandbusinesscaseWhenwefirstbroachedthetopicofWomenomicsandtheneedforgreatergenderdiversityin1999,ourargumentwasnotsocialorcultural,butratherasimpleeconomicone.Afterall,thethreekeydeterminantsofeconomicgrowthforanycountryare:labor,capital,andproductivity.SinceJapan’spopulationisshrinking,capitalisfinite,andproductivitygainswilltaketime,unlessradicalstepsaretakenquickly,wearguedthatthenationnotonlyfacedtheriskofafurtherdeclineinitsproductivityandpotentialgrowthrate,buteventually,lowerstandardsoflivingaswell.DemographictsunamiSinceourlastWomenomicsreportin2014,Japan’sdemographicsituationhasdeterioratedevenfurther.2Indeed,in2018,theIMFwarnedthatintheabsenceofmeaningfulstructuralreforms,demographicheadwindscouldcausethelevelofJapan’srealGDPtodeclinebyover25%in40yearsrelativetoabaselineprojectionwhereproductivityandpopulationgrowattheirrecentpace.3HowJapanchoosestomanageitsdemographicheadwindsoverthenextseveralyearswillserveasanimportanttemplate(ornot)forhowothercountriesshouldcopewiththeirownagingsocieties.Afterpeakingin2008at128mn,Japan’soverallpopulationhadalreadyshrunkby1.5%to126mnin20184,andbasedongovernmentprojections,isforecasttodropby30%tojust88mnby2065.5Moreimportantly,by2055,Japan’sworkforcepopulationisexpectedtoshrinkdramaticallyby40%,from75mnin2018to45mn(seeExhibit1).2SeeourMay6,2014strategyreport,Womenomics4.0:TimetoWalktheTalk.3SeeMarianaColacelliandEmilioFernandezCorugedo’sNovember2018IMFWorkingPaper,“MacroeconomicEffectsofJapan’sDemographics:CanStructuralReformsReverseThem?”4PopulationEstimates,MinistryofInternalAffairsandCommunicationsStatisticsBureau.AsofOctober2018.5JapanNationalInstituteofPopulationandSocialSecurityResearch.18April20194GoldmanSachsJapanPortfolioStrategyThegovernmentaimstoboostthefertilityrateto1.8by2025,butasof2018,itstoodatjust1.4.Japanremainsoneofthefewmajorcountrieswherethenumberofregisteredpets(dogsandcatsonly:18.7mnasof2015)outnumberedchildrenundertheageof15(16.6mn).6Besidesshrinkage,Japan’spopulationisalsoagingmorerapidlythanmostothernations,with28%7ofJapanesealreadyintheelder-agecohort(65yearsandolder),andby2055,thisratioisprojectedtoriseto37%.(seeExhibit2).Japan’sold-agedependencyratio(numberofelderpersonssupportedbyoneactiveworker)willrisetoaround75%by2050—thehighestofanynationglobally—meaningthateventually,eachJapaneseworkerwillneedtosupport1.3elderlypersons.Thiswillposeevenmoreseriouschallengestothenation’sfiscaldebtsustainability.6JapanPetFoodAssociation.7ProvisionalestimatesbyMinistryofInternalAffairsandCommunications,asofMar.1,2019.Exhibit1:JapanworkforceshrinkingfasterthanothercountriesWorkingagepopulationproportion,aged15-64,vs.totalpopulation,%50556065707580859095000510152025303540455055JapanKoreaGermanyUKChinaUSJapanKoreaGermanyUKChinaUSUNestimatesafter2020,basedonmedianestimatesofmortalityandbirthrates.WorldPopulationProspects,2017Revision,UN,June2017.Source:JapanInstituteforLabourPolicyandTraining,UN18April20195GoldmanSachsJapanPortfolioStrategyConsequently,Japan’slabormarkethasbecomeextremelytight,resultingintheunemploymentratesinkingtoaquarter-centurylowof2.3%(Feb.2019)andthejoboffers-to-applicantsratioreachingarecord1.6X—meaningthereare60%morejobsavailablethanJapaneseseekingwork(seeExhibit3).Unsurprisingly,labor-intensiveindustriessuchassecurityservices,construction,andtransportationarefacingthemostacuteshortages(seeExhibit4).Exhibit2:JapanisagingfasterthanothernationsRatioofpopulationovertheageof65,%051015202530354080859095000510152025303540455055JapanKoreaGermanyUKChinaUSJapanKoreaGermanyUKChinaUSUNestimatesafter2020,basedonmedianestimatesofmortalityandbirthrates.WorldPopulationProspects,2017Revision,UN,June2017.Source:JapanInstituteforLabourPolicyandTraining,UNExhibit3:Japan’suber-tightjobmarketAsofFebruary20190.2X0.4X0.6X0.8X1.0X1.2X1.4X1.6X1.8X2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%00020406081012141618Unemploymentrate(lhs)Jobofferstoapplicantratio(rhs)Source:MHLW18April20196GoldmanSachsJapanPortfolioStrategy8SeeTomohiroOta,NaohikoBaba,andYurikoTanaka’sJuly13,2018JapanEconomicsAnalyst:SpotlightonImmigration(2):WhatcouldchangeforJapan’seconomyandjobsmarket?Exhibit4:LaborshortagesacrossmanysectorsEffectiveofferstoapplicantratios(includingpart-time),asofJanuary20190X2X4X6X8X10XSecurityConstructionandminingServiceTransportandmachineryoperationProfessionalandtechnicalSellingProductionprocessManagementTotalAgri.,ForestryandFisheries��� ��� � � ������ � ���ClericalstaffSource:MHLWRelieffromforeigners?Toprovidesomerelieffromlaborshortages,Japanhasseenaninfluxofforeignworkersinrecentyears,andoureconomistscalculatedthatforeignworkersaccountedforasmuchas15%ofthegrowthinemployeesduring2018(182,000vs.1.2mn)(seeExhibit5).8ThemainsourcesoftheseworkersaretechnicaltraineesaswellasforeignstudentsstudyinginJapaneseuniversities(wherestudentvisasallowupto28hours/weekforemployment).Exhibit5:Foreignersaccountedfor15%ofgrowthinemployeesin2018,sourcedmainlyfromtechnicaltraineesandforeignstudentsIncreaseinthenumberofemployees,YOY,thousands-500050010001500-1000-5000500100015002009201020112012201320142015201620172018JapaneseForeignersSource:MHLW,MOJ18April20197GoldmanSachsJapanPortfolioStrategyAlthoughforeignershaveprovidedsomerelief,ongoingjobshortagesrecentlypromptedthegovernmenttoapprovelegislationwhichallowslonger-durationworkvisas(max.5years)forupto345,000foreignnationalsinfivespecifiedindustriessuchascaregiving,construction,hospitality,shipbuilding,andagriculture.ThisnewvisaprogramstartedApril1,2019andwilllastforthenextfiveyears.Whilethisshouldeasesomeoftheshortages,wedoubtitcanfilltheentiresupplygap.Therefore,continuingtoexpandfemaleemploymentmustremainatoppriorityfortheJapanesegovernmentandsociety.RecordfemalelaborparticipationWhenwepublishedourfirstWomenomicsreportin1999,Japan’sfemalelaborparticipationratestoodatjust56%—oneofthelowestinthedevelopedworld.Sincethen,however,thepercentagehasrisensharplytonearly71%(asofFeb.2019),overtakingtheUS(66%)andtheEurozone(62%)(seeExhibit6).GrowthinthenumberofworkingwomenhasbeenparticularlypronouncedduringthepastsixyearsofAbenomics,wherethenumberofemployedfemalessurgedbymorethan3mnfrom26.4mnin2012to29.7mnin2018.9Femaleemploymentratedefinedasthepercentageofwomenworkingoutsidethehomevs.femaleworkforcebetweenages15-64.Exhibit6:Japan’sfemalelaborparticipationratehassurpassedtheUSandEurozone62.2%50%55%60%65%70%75%808284868890929496980002040608101214161820JapanUSEuroZone70.7%66.1%AsofFebruary2019forJapanandUS,September2018forEurozoneSource:OECDEconomiccase:PotentialGDPboostsof10%,15%AswehavearguedinourpreviousWomenomicsreports,thepotentialdividendsfromclosingthegenderemploymentgapforJapanarepotentiallymassive.IfJapan’slaborparticipationratesforfemales(67%asof2017)convergedtothatofmales(83%)9thiswouldadd5.8mnmoreemployeestoJapan’sworkforce.Sincemoreworkersgenerallymeansmoreincome,weestimatethepotentialpositiveimpactonJapan’sGDPtobe10%(seeExhibit7).Giventhatthegenderemploymentgaphasnarrowedvs.2014,18April20198GoldmanSachsJapanPortfolioStrategythepotentialGDPboostissomewhatsmallerthanourpreviousestimate,butnonetheless,Japanremainsoneofthelargestpotentialbeneficiariesofclosingthegenderemploymentgapinthedevelopedworld.SomeobserverscontendthatsinceJapanesefemalelaborparticipationisalreadyatarecordhigh,thescopeforfurthergainsfromWomenomicsislimited.However,sincethemajorityofworkingwomen(56%)areengagedinpart-timeratherthanfull-timeemployment(seeExhibit8),webelievetheboosttoJapan’seconomycouldbeevenlargerifmorewomenassumedfull-timepositionsorworkedlongerpart-timehours.Exhibit7:ClosingthegenderemploymentgapcouldboostJapan’sGDPby10%PotentialincreaseinGDPlevelsassumingfemaleemploymentratesrosetothatofmales,%201710.202468101214161820GreeceItalyKoreaJapanSpainUSUKFranceGermanyDenmarkSwedenSource:OECD,FactSet,datacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchExhibit8:MajorityofJapaneseworkingwomenareemployedinpart-timeasopposedtofull-timework56%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%88909294969800020406081012141618Source:JIL18April20199GoldmanSachsJapanPortfolioStrategyBlue-skyscenario:Potential15%GDPboostBeyondclosingJapan’sgenderemploymentgap,whatifwealsoimagineashiftinthecompositionoffemalejobswherebymorewomenworkinfull-timeroles(orlongerhoursthanpart-time)?Asof2017,theratioofmonthlyregularworkinghours(excludingovertime)ofJapanesewomenvs.menwas81%(118vs.145),whiletheOECDaveragewas85%.IfweassumeJapan’sratioeventuallyrisestotheOECDaverage,JapancouldenjoyanaddedGDPboostof4%.Inotherwords,undera“blue-sky”scenario,Japan’sGDPcouldrisebyasmuchas15%(seeExhibit9).10BusinesscaseBesidesthepotentialmacroeconomicboostfromhigherfemalelaborparticipation,therearealsosignificantpotentialbenefitsatthemicro,orcompanylevel,aswell.Forinstance,basedondatafor297Japaneselistedfirmsthatdisclosedtheirfemalemanager(bucho)statisticsduringJune2018-April2019,11thosethatrankedinthehighestgroupintermsoffemalemanagerratios(>15%)boastedthehighest(>6%)5-yearaveragesalesgrowth,aswellasthehighest3-yearaverageROEs(>9%,FY2010-FY2012),whilefirmsinthelowestgrouphadverylowornegativeaverageROEs(seeExhibit10).10Calculationsbasedon2017dataformonthlyregular(excludingovertime)workinghoursforwomenvs.meninJapanandtherestoftheOECD.Japan’sratiois81%,andtheOECDaverageis84.8%.11Source:NikkeiValuesearch.Exhibit9:“Blue-sky”scenario:Closingthegenderemploymentgapandraisingtheratiooffemalevs.malemonthlyworkinghourscouldboostJapan’sGDPby15%+10%+15%+4%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%Employmentrate(a)Scheduledworkinghours(b)Blue-Sky(c)Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch18April201910GoldmanSachsJapanPortfolioStrategyPositivecorrelationbetweendiverseleadershipandcorporateperformanceTherearenumerousglobalstudiesbyorganizationssuchasCatalystandothersdemonstratinghowdiverseleadershipispositivelycorrelatedwithcorporateperformance.12Forexample,a2017McKinseystudyof300globalcompaniesfoundthatthosefirmswiththemostwomenontheirexecutivecommitteesenjoyed47%higheraverageROEthanthosewithnone,and55%higherEBITmargins(seeExhibit11)13Furthermore,BostonConsultingGroup’s2018survey,HowandWhereDiversityDrivesFinancialPerformance,ofmorethan1700companiesin8countriesfoundthatfirmswithabove-average“totaldiversity”(measuredastheaverageofsixdimensionsofdiversity:migration,industry,careerpath,gender,education,age),hadonaverage19%pointhigherinnovationrevenuesand9%pointshigherEBITmargins.1412OneoftheearlieststudieswasconductedbyCatalyst,seeNancyM.CarterandHarveyM.Wagner’s2011report,TheBottomLine:CorporatePerformanceandWomen’sRepresentationonBoards(2004-2008).13SeeMcKinsey’s2017report,‘WomenMatter:TimetoAccelerate:TenYearsofInsightsintoGenderDiversity.’14SeeRocioLorenzoandMartinReeves’Jan.30,2018report,‘HowandWhereDiversityDrivesFinancialPerformance.’Exhibit10:JapanesefirmswiththehighestratiosoffemalemanagersposthighersalesgrowthandROEs%012345678>0%&<=5%(n=138)>5%&<=10%(n=84)>10%&<=15%(n=29)>15%(n=44)FemalemanagerratioSalesGrowth5Yaverage0.06.57.07.58.08.59.09.510.0>0%&<=5%(n=138)>5%&<=10%(n=84)>10%&<=15%(n=29)>15%(n=44)FemalemanagerratioROE3YAverageSource:NikkeiValuesearch,QUICK,FactSet,datacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch18April201911GoldmanSachsJapanPortfolioStrategyProgresssince1999WhenwepublishedourinitialWomenomicsreporttwodecadesago,therewaslittleawarenessaboutthetopicofdiversity.However,momentumacceleratedafterPMShinzoAbe’ssecondtermbeganin2013.UnleashingthepotentialofWomenomicsisanabsolutemustifJapan’sgrowthistocontinue...Womenomicsoffersasolutionwithitscoretenetthatacountrythathiresandpromotesmorewomengrowseconomically,andnolessimportantly,demographicallyaswell.(PrimeMinisterShinzoAbe:“UnleashingthePowerof‘Womenomics”,WallStreetJournal,September25,2013).15OneofthemostimpactfulchangestheAbeadministrationmadewastoshiftthecontextfordiversityawayfromahumanrightsorsocialissuetoaneconomicandbusinessimperative.Declaring“AbenomicsisWomenomics”helpedshiftcorporatemanagers’andsocietalattitudestothecriticalrolegenderdiversitycanplayindrivinggrowth.16Abenomics’WomenomicsgoalsTheAbegovernment’sinitialKPIsoftheWomenomicsagendareleasedinJanuary2014(inhisso-called“DavosPromise”keynotespeech17)included:15ShinzoAbe:“UnleasingthePowerof‘Womenomics’”inWallStreetJournalOpinion,September25,2013(https://www.wsj.com/articles/shinzo-abe-unleashing-the-power-of-8216womenomics8217-1380149475)16“OpeningSpeechbyPrimeMinisterShinzoAbeattheWorldAssemblyforWomen(WAW!),2015.”17PrimeMinisterShinzoAbe’skeynoteaddressattheWorldEconomicForumAnnualMeeting,January22,2014.Exhibit11:PositivecorrelationbetweendiverseleadershipandbusinessperformanceGapbetweencompanieswithhighvs.zerofemaleleadershiprepresentation,300companiesin10countries,2007-200915%11%22%17%0%5%10%15%20%25%ROE(average)EBITMargin(average)Companieswith0womeninexecutivecommittieesCompaniesinthetopquartileforfemalerepresentationinexecutivecommiteesSource:McKinsey.18April201912GoldmanSachsJapanPortfolioStrategyIncreasingthefemalelaborparticipationratebetweentheagesof25-44from68%1.in2012to77%by2020Normalizingthe“M-curve”byraisingthepercentageofwomenreturningtowork2.aftertheirfirstchi