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AutomotiveIndustryHistoryWhoinventedtheautomobile?Assumptionsconcerningtheanswertothisquestiondifferwidelythroughouttheworld:InEngland:manypeoplewilltellyouthatthecarwasinventedbyCharlesRollsandHenryRoyceInAmerica:IntheUSA,GeorgeSelden(1846-1922)claimedthathewastheinventoroftheautomobile.Thissonofapatentattorneyhadfiledapatentapplicationforamotorvehiclein1879.Hewasgrantedthepatentin1895withouteverhavingbuiltanautomobile.SeldenbombardedAmericancarmanufacturerswithdemandsforlicensefees.Itwasnotuntil1911,followingprotractedlitigation,thatHenryFordsucceededinoverturningthemysteriousSeldenpatent.Today,mostAmericansbelievethatHenryFordinventedthecar.InAustria:evenhighlyrespectedhistoriansbelievedforalongtimethattheVienneseSiegfriedMarcus(1831-1890)builtthefirstcarin1865whenhefittedastationaryenginetoacartandtookitfora200metertestrun.InFrance:ThewidelyheldFrenchviewisthatitwasCountdeDionandGeorgesBoutonwhoinventedthecar.In1771,France’sNicolasJosephCugnot(1725-1804)designedandbuiltavehiclewhichwaslaterdeclaredtobethefirstautomobileintheworld.Itwasamonstroussteam-poweredaffairwhichissaidtohavecausedaroadaccidentduringatestrun.In1801,itwastakentotheConservatoireNationaldesArtsetMétiersinParis.ThefirstautomobileintheworldYearbuilt:1771Name:LeFardierInventor:JosephNicolasCugnot,FranceTechnology:2verticalcylindersteamengineCylindersvolume:62litersMaxspeed:4km/h(~2.5mph)Whereisitnow?MuséeNationaldesTechniquesduC.N.A.M.-Paris 1950 1970 1990 20001) GeneralMotors GeneralMotors GeneralMotors GeneralMotors2) Ford Ford Ford Ford3) Chrysler Chrysler Toyota Volkswagen4) Studebaker Volkswagen Nissan Toyota5) Nash Fiat Volkswagen Daimler-Chrysler6) Kaiser-Frazer Toyota Fiat Nissan7) Morris Nissan Honda Honda8) Hudson Renault PSA Fiat9) Austin BritishLeyland Chrysler PSA10) Renault PSA Renault RenaultEachdecade,themakeupoftheindustrychangessignificantlyTop10Manufacturers(involume)Today'sAutomotiveIndustryOverviewAutomotiveMarketsizekeyfigures(passengercarsandutilityvehicles,inthousands)America: 272,627 (UnitedStatesalone: 203,720)Europe: 264,217 (EuropeanUnionalone:190,083)Asia: 126,301 (Japanalone: 70,815)MiddleEast: 18,346Africa: 14,956Australia: 14,250Source:CCFANowlet’slookmorecloselyatsomeofthedataunderlyingthesegeneralizations.Involume,theregionsoftheworldcanbedividedintotwoclasses:thelargevolumemarketsofNorthAmerica,WestEurope,andAsia-Pacific;andthesignificantlysmaller--fromasheervolumeperspective--marketsofSouthAmerica,EastEurope,andAfrica/MiddleEast.Note,however,thatAsiaisalreadythelargestauto-producingregionoftheworld(althoughitsmarketsarehighlyfragmentedbyincomedisparityandtradebarriers).Anothervaliddivisionwouldbebetweenthehigh-volume,butessentiallymaturemarketsoftheUS/Canada,WestEurope,andJapan;andthedevelopingmarketsthatmakeuptherestoftheworld.MarketsizeVolumedividestheworldintotwosets:Largeregionalmarkets:NorthAmerica,WestEurope,andAsia-PacificSmallerregions:SouthAmerica,EastEurope,Africa/MiddleEastNowlet’slookmorecloselyatsomeofthedataunderlyingthesegeneralizations.Involume,theregionsoftheworldcanbedividedintotwoclasses:thelargevolumemarketsofNorthAmerica,WestEurope,andAsia-Pacific;andthesignificantlysmaller--fromasheervolumeperspective--marketsofSouthAmerica,EastEurope,andAfrica/MiddleEast.Note,however,thatAsiaisalreadythelargestauto-producingregionoftheworld(althoughitsmarketsarehighlyfragmentedbyincomedisparityandtradebarriers).Anothervaliddivisionwouldbebetweenthehigh-volume,butessentiallymaturemarketsoftheUS/Canada,WestEurope,andJapan;andthedevelopingmarketsthatmakeuptherestoftheworld.MarkettypesMaturemarkets:NorthAmerica,WestEurope,JapanandAustraliareplacementdemandEmergingmarkets:DevelopingAsia,SouthAmerica,EastEurope,Africa/MiddleEastincrementaldemandhugeopportunities(formerSovietUnion,ChinaandIndiahavehugepopulationswithlowcardensity)maytakegenerationsforconsumerstandardsoflivingtoreachwesternstandards(long-termviewforshareholders)70%ofanticipatedgrowthexpectedtocomefromoutsideofNorthAmericaandWesternEuropeNowlet’slookmorecloselyatsomeofthedataunderlyingthesegeneralizations.Involume,theregionsoftheworldcanbedividedintotwoclasses:thelargevolumemarketsofNorthAmerica,WestEurope,andAsia-Pacific;andthesignificantlysmaller--fromasheervolumeperspective--marketsofSouthAmerica,EastEurope,andAfrica/MiddleEast.Note,however,thatAsiaisalreadythelargestauto-producingregionoftheworld(althoughitsmarketsarehighlyfragmentedbyincomedisparityandtradebarriers).Anothervaliddivisionwouldbebetweenthehigh-volume,butessentiallymaturemarketsoftheUS/Canada,WestEurope,andJapan;andthedevelopingmarketsthatmakeuptherestoftheworld.GrowthProspectsGloballightvehicleproductionisgrowingfrom55+millionunitsCapacityissurpassing80millionunitsDespitethesedownsidesanddifficulties,theautoindustryhasseenbrighttimeandenjoysrealgrowthprospects.We’veseenrapidexpansion:theindustryexperiencedenormousgrowthfrom1990to1997ofsome15%.Andwewilllikelyenjoyevengreatergrowth--anexpected20%from1998to2005,althoughtheoutlookforthenextseveralyearsappearsflatatbest.Tosumitup,thelong-termoutlook,despitetraditionalcyclicalthreats,isquitebright.Thehighrateofgrowthisthankstothefactthatmanyglobalmarketsarestillintheirinfancyasfarasautopenetrationisconcerned.That’sthegoodnews.However,despiteallthisgrowth--thisincreaseinthesizeofthepie--competitivepressuresarenotalleviating,theyareworsening,asI’msureyou’veallexperienced.Overcapacity,segmentfragmentation,shiftingconsumerpreferences,theretailrevolution,newentries,tradebarriers,andagrowinguniversalityofvehicleexcellencehaveallincreasedthefightforthescrapsofthispie.EquallyinfluentialhasbeenthetransformationofWallStreetthinking,whichhasledfinancialanalyststodemandfromthecapital-intensiveautomotiveindustryreturnsmorefamiliarlyassociatedwiththetechnologysector.Thishasledtobrutalcost-cuttinginitiativesandradicaleffortstotransformthewaytheindustrydoesbusiness.Forexample,UT’srecentdecisiontodivestitsautomotiveinterestscomesdespiteROSof6.1%--alevelmostVMswouldkillfor.Andthatisthenon-obviouspointtotakefromthisgraph.Despiteanenvironmentofhighgrowth,thedominantstoryoftheninetieshasbeenincreasingcompetitionandtheimperativetochangeandimprovetomeetthischallenge.Theequallypositiveprospectsweseeoutto2005willdonomoretoalleviatethiscompetitiveintensificationthandidthegrowthweexperienced1990-7.Toputitsimply,thegreatestthreatstillfacingtheindustryistherising--andaccelerating--paceofchangeandcompetition.Growth--evenofthisscale--willnotbeenoughtonegatethestructuralchallengestheindustryfaces.Moreover,inthenear-andmid-termwefacetheprospectofglobalmalaise,includingthethreatofaglobalautorecession.GrowthProspectsNowlet’slookmorecloselyatsomeofthedataunderlyingthesegeneralizations.Involume,theregionsoftheworldcanbedividedintotwoclasses:thelargevolumemarketsofNorthAmerica,WestEurope,andAsia-Pacific;andthesignificantlysmaller--fromasheervolumeperspective--marketsofSouthAmerica,EastEurope,andAfrica/MiddleEast.Note,however,thatAsiaisalreadythelargestauto-producingregionoftheworld(althoughitsmarketsarehighlyfragmentedbyincomedisparityandtradebarriers).Anothervaliddivisionwouldbebetweenthehigh-volume,butessentiallymaturemarketsoftheUS/Canada,WestEurope,andJapan;andthedevelopingmarketsthatmakeuptherestoftheworld.World'sLargestvehicleManufacturersCreationoftheGlobalSixNowlet’slookatwhichcompanieswillhavethemeanstosurvive,andtakeadvantageof,thisdifficultsituation--namely,theGlobalFive.DaimlerChrysler’smergerhastrulyandfundamentallychangedthebalanceofpowerintheindustry.Aclearlinehasbeendrawnbetweenafewhighvolumemakerswhohavenearedapotentiallevelofcriticalmass,andasecondtierofplayerswhoarestrugglingtosurvivebygoingglobal,increasingvolume,and/orthroughconsolidation.Thisconsolidationimperativestemsinlargepartfromtheindustry’shighR&D,safety,andenvironmentalcosts;itsneedforsignificantcapitalinvestment;andtheindustry’shistoricallylowratesofreturn.Thesesamefactorsensurethattheprocesswillcontinue.Amazinglyenough,wearereachingastagewheremanufacturersofgreaterthan1millionlightvehicleunitsayearareconsidered“niche”manufacturers.Thisisnotanewphenomenon,however:theprocessofconsolidationhasbeencontinuingunabatedsinceWorldWarII.Forexample,ofwhatwerethetop20globalvehiclemanufacturersin1966,10havebeenforcedtomergeorhadanothercompanytakecontrol[[BMH,Citroen,Peugeot,AmericanMotors,Mazda,Leyland,Daihatsu,SEAT,andofcourseChryslerandMercedes-Benz]].Theautoindustrymayevenbebeginningaslowmarchtoaconsolidated“RuleofThree”.BythisB-Schooltheory,inmature,single-marketindustries,threelarge,high-volumecompanieseventually(andinevitably)predominate.Theseforcesmayhavebeenunleashedbytheincreasinglyglobalnatureoftheindustry(theprogression--farfromrealized--toatruesingle-globalmarket).StockExchange:NYSEHeadquarters:Detroit,MI,USAFoundedin:19082000data:Revenues:$183.3billionNumberofcarandtrucksales:8.6millionNumberofemployees:372,000Brands:Chevrolet,Pontiac,Buick,Oldsmobile,Cadillac,GMC,Saturn,Hummer,Saab,Opel,Vauxhall,HoldenFinancing:GMACGeneralMotorsCorporationGeneralMotorsCorporationStrategicIntentGlobal,NorthAmericanexpansion...neverwantstosurrender#1rankingMarketshareversusprofitabilitymentalityremains…underthreatwithFordgrowthLeveragesize,globalcoverage/componentsystemsapproachEmbarkedonnew"lean"capacityexpansionaroundtheworldAttemptingtoextendpolicytodevelopingmarketsStrengthsSurvivalguaranteedinageofconsolidationStrategicalliancessought,butnotfoundsofarEarlycostreductionprogramspayingdividendsHugeglobalplatforms(architectures)offerenviablescale,ifsuccessfulDelphispin-offShouldhelpvehicleside'ssupplystrategy,costcompetitivenessandlaborsituationWeaknessesNorthAmericahas“toomany”everything(brands,models,plants,workers,dealers)Brandconfusion...internalreorganization,againTryingtorevolutionizelaborcontract/relationship/roleinatimeoflaborunrestProductuninspiring...car-truckhybridslasttomarket,althoughinstunningvarietyEurope,formercashcow,remainsonlifesupportInternaldisarray…productlacking...engineeringoverextendedFordMotorCompanyStockExchange:NYSEHeadquarters:Dearborn,MI,USAFoundedin:19032000data:Revenues:$170.06billionNumberofcarandtrucksales:7.424millionNumberofemployees:346,000Brands:Ford,Mercury,Mazda,AstonMartin,Jaguar,Lincoln,Volvo,LandRover,Financing:FordCreditFinancingJacquesNasser,FordMotorCompanyPresidentandChiefExecutiveOfficerFordMotorCompanyStrategicIntentUS$6.45billionVolvopurchasebeatoutothersuitors(VW,FIAT,possiblyGM)PurchasebridgesthegapinEuropebetweenFordandJaguarWillstrengthenunderrepresenteddemographicwithinFordproductline-upinNorthAmericaFordhasproven(withJaguar)thattheycanmanagebrandheritageStrengthsNorealproductoverlapWillfitaboveMondeoinEurope(anareaoftraditionalFordweakness)andhasadifferenttargetaudiencethanJaguarInNA:willnotintrudeonLincoln“traditionalluxury”Platformsharingopportunities:CDW-basedS/V40,Focus-basedsmallcar(premiumhatch),etc.WillsolidifyFord’sstandingintheglobalpremiumcarsegmentwhenitsprimarycompetitor(GM)isshowingweaknessesinthecategoryEx-BMWproductguru,WolfgangReitzle,toheadnewFordPremiumCarGroup(Lincoln,Volvo,Jag,Aston)--fitsinwithFord’s“carguys”(Nasser,Parry-Jones,Mays)BringsFordever-closertonumberoneintheworldintotalproductionWeaknessesFordwillhavetoaddressVolvo’shighoverheadandproductioncostLikeJaguar,couldbeadecadebeforetruesynergiesareachieved(Volvoproductstoofaralongindevelopmentforquickplatformsharing)ToyotaMotorCorporationStockExchange:TokyoHeadquarters:Tokyo,JapanFoundedin:19372000data(April1999march2000):Revenues:Yen12.879billions(US$121billiontranslatedattherateof¥106.15=US$1,theapproximatecurrentexchangerateatMarch31,2000)Numberofcarandtrucksales:5.53millionNumberofemployees:210,000Brands:Toyota,Lexus,DaihatsuFinancing:ToyotaFinanceCorporation,ToyotaMotorCreditCorporationFujioCho,PresidentandChiefExecutiveOfficerToyotaMotorCorporationStrategicIntentGrowlargerEmbracing"biggerisbetter":10%ofglobalmarket,40%ofJapanesemarketIntegrateDaihatsu,Hino,AutoWorksDiversificationawayfromconventionalvehiclemanufacturingSpread,notadapt,currentcultureasmeanstosuccessinnewmarketsStrugglinginternallywithappropriateorganizationalstructure,managerialstyleStrengthsFinancialstrengthandstabilityLeadership:Okudaaggressive,discerning…goalofidentifying/overcomingallautomotiveweaknessesManufacturing&qualitystilltheglobalbenchmarkWeaknessesLapsein“NewGlobalBusinessPlan”Goalfor65%non-Japaneseproductionin1997,currentlyat53%ConsiderableexposuretoSouthEastAsia…U.S.marketaccountsforestimated50%ofprofitProductportfolioLacksviableupscalebrandoutsideNorthAmerica...LexusisaMercedes/BMWalternativeonlyinNorthAmericaAgingcustomerbaseinkeymarkets...Civicgetstheyoungbuyer;CorollagetstheretireesinNorthAmerica...needsyoungcustomerstomoveuptomoreprofitablevehiclesRenault-Nissan(Thecompaniesarenotconsolidated)StockExchange: Renault:Paris Nissan:TokyoHeadquarters: Renault:Boulogne-Billancourt(France) Nissan:Tokyo,(Japan)Foundedin:1898(Renault),1933(Nissan)2000data:Revenues:Euro40billions(Renault),US$56billions(April1999March2000,Nissan)Numberofcarandtrucksales:2.35million(Renault,includingLCVs),2.6million(Nissan)Numberofemployees:166,000(Renault)133,000(Nissan,includingconsolidatedsubsidiaries)Brands:Renault,Nissan,Dacia,Samsung,InfinityFinancing:RenaultCréditInternational(RCI)LouisSchweitzer,RenaultChairmanandChiefExecutiveOfficerRenault-NissanStrategicIntentHigh-riskindependencestrategyRenault:onlywaytogetbiggerandretaincontrol;Nissan:onlywaytoavoidbankruptcyTogether:findenoughcostsavingstofendoffotherGlobalfiveStrengthsStrengthsNiceon-paperstrategicfitFourthlargestautomaker;well-balancedregionalproductionmixComplementarybusinessstrengthsNissan:manufacturing,technology,engineeringRenault:productplanning,management,designProductcomplementationMixofRenault’ssegmentinnovationandNissan’sspeedtomarketholdspotentialWeaknessesThisisnotamerger!BenefitsofsizeandcooperationcanonlystemfromintegrationReluctantalliance…Nissanproud,RenaultsmallerandclearsecondchoicetoDaimlerChryslerEnormousculturalbarrierstoovercomeDebt,debt,debt…excesscapacity...stilllotsofhardchoicesyettobemadeDifficultyinfindingfinancingfornextgenerationofvehicles,futureinvestmentNumbernineinkeylong-termgrowthpotentialdevelopingAsiamarketVolkswagenAGStockExchange:FrankfurtHeadquarters:Wolfsburg,GermanyFoundedin:19382000data:Revenues:Euro85.25billionNumberofcarandtrucksales:5.1millionNumberofemployees:324,000Brands:Volkswagen,Audi,Seat,RollsRoyce,Bentley,Skoda,Bugatti,LamborghiniFinancing:VolkswagenBank,VolkswagenLeasingFerdinandPiëch,VolkswagenAGChairmanVolkswagenAGStrategicIntentWorlddomination...oneofGlobalBig6NoapparentboundstoPiëch'sambitionsOverly-ambitiousautocraticleaderwhothreatenscorporate/industrystability,orgenius?Global,full-linevehicleproducerFoundationforeverythingelse:differentiatedbrands/productsforallsegmentsandmarketsAggressivelytargetingvolumeandproductdiversityincrements,basedonmultiplebrands...acquisitionsreinforceambitions…growcommercialvehicles,bigtrucksBeeverywhereimportantandbebig(WE,SA,China,EE,NA,India)...regainstatusisinNA...whataboutSEAsia?StrengthsMostadvancedplatformconsolidation/supplierschemeDifferentiatedbrandstrategiesfromcommonplatformsholdingup...enormoussavingsLopezlegacy:forgingandexperimentingwithnewrelationshipsDividendsfrompastrationalizationplans,acquisitions...stillhungryNumberoneinEuropeandgrowing...integratingEastEuropeWeaknessesProfitabilitystilllagsthatofotherGlobal5Dangerofdilutedbrandequityduetobrandoverload(seeGM)Costofmaintaining/differentiatingallbrands/productscouldbecomeoverwhelming…ifVWstumbles,weightofbrandproliferationcouldbringitdownDaimler-ChryslerAGStockExchange:FrankfurtandNYSEHeadquarters:Stuttgart,GermanyandAuburnHills,MI,USAFoundedin:1883Benz&Cie,1890Daimler-Motoren-Gesellschaft,1926Daimler-BenzAG,1998Daimler-ChryslerAG2000data:Revenues:Euro162.3billionsNumberofcarandtrucksales:4.75millionNumberofemployees:416.500Brands:MercedesBenz,SMART,Chrysler,Jeep,Dodge,Financing:Daimler-ChryslerDebisfinancialservicesJürgenE.Schrempp,Daimler-ChryslerAGChairmanandChiefExecutiveOfficerDaimler-ChryslerAGStrategicIntentBecomethebestofthebiggest…oneofultimateglobaltopthreeLeveragecomplementarystrengthstobecomemostefficient,agileandeffectiveplayeronaglobalscaleGrowthebusinesswithacknowledgedexpansionistpolicyConquestsalesinestablishedmarketsGrowdownscalevolumeinEuropeEnrichbrandpolicyDevelopSouthAmericaandAsiaStrengthsSynergyChrysleragility,visionandextendedenterprise+DaimlerengineeringBenefitfromascaleneitherenjoyedbeforeDifferentiatedbrandequity,productsandgeography=growthwithoutcasualtiesResourcestoabsorbrisk&affordexpansionplansWeaknessesEnormoustransitional,culturalbarrierstoovercomeLagscompetitorsinplatformconsolidationstrategiesVulnerableinthecost,scalebattlesPlatformdeproliferationcouldbeproblematicStilllacksAsianemergingmarketpresenceWorld'sLargestSuppliersTop10Suppliers(insales) Company 2000Sales 1. Delphi $29.14billion2. RobertBosch $21.37billion(DM44billionconvertedat$/DM0.4856asofJan.2,2001)3. Visteon $19.5billion4. DensoCorp. $16.25billion5. Lear $14.07billion6. JohnsonControls $12.74billion7. TRWInc $11billion8. DanaCorp. $9.91billion9.Valeo $8.66billion(FF59.82billionconvertedatFF/$0.1448asofJan.2,2001)10.AisinSeiki $8.24billion(Yen942.5billionconvertedatYen/$0.008745asofJan.2,2001)StockExchange:NYSEHeadquarters:Troy,MI,USAFoundedin:1999(previouslypartofGeneralMotorsCorporation)2000data:Revenues:UD$29.14billionNumberofemployees:202,700Businesssectors:Dynamics&Propulsion;SafetyThermal&ElectricalArchitectureElectronics&MobileCommunicationDelphiAutomotiveSystemsJ.T.BattenbergIIIChairmanoftheBoard,ChiefExecutiveOfficer&President,DelphiAutomotiveSystemsStockExchange:nottradedHeadquarters:Stuttgart,GermanyFoundedin:18862000data:Revenues:44billionDMNumberofemployees:140,400Businesssectors:Fuelinjectiontechnologyforinternalcombustionengines(dieselandgasoline)SystemsforactiveandpassivevehiclesafetyElectricalmachines(starters,alternators,small-powermotors)Mobilecommunicationproducts(carradios,navigationsystemsanddriverinformationsystems)RobertBoschGmbHHermannscholl,BoschChairmanoftheBoardandpresidentStockExchange:NYSEHeadquarters:Dearborn,MI,USAFoundedin:2000(previouslypartofFordMotorCompany)2000data:Revenues:US$19.5billionNumberofemployees:82,000Businesssectors:Comfort,CommunicationsandSafety(ClimateControl,InteriorandExteriorandTelematics/MultimediaSystems)DynamicsandEnergyConversion(EnergyTransformationandChassisSystems)GlassVisteonCorporationPeterJ.Pestillo,ChairmanandChiefExecutiveOfficerofVisteonCorporationGlobalizationWhatisglobalization?Thisisthesearchforincrementalvolumeleveragingknow-howfromotherpartsoftheworld,I.e.togrowvolumeoverastablecostofinvestmentbase,therebyachievingbetterreturns.but… Therearehugedifferencesbetweenconsumerexpectationsinthedevelopedworldandinemergingmarkets.Ontopofthat,vastculturaldifferencesexistevenwithinthedevelopedworld-compareconsumertasteinNorthAmerica,EuropeandJapan. Thetransferofyesterday'stechnologytoemergingmarketsisnolongeranoptionastheyaredemandingnewertechnologyandvehiclecharacteristicsappropriatetotheirownconditions Significantincrementalcapitalinvestment(e.g.co-locationofthesuppliercommunitiesinthenewassemblysites)isoftennecessaryWhatdoesallthismeanforsuppliers?Itmeansabignewchallenge.Essentially,virtuallyeveryprogramwillbelikeaGMT800,aprogrambigenoughtomakeorbreaksuppliers.Ifyoudon’tgetaprogramlikethis,youcouldbelockedoutforalongtime;itcouldmeanplantclosings.TheVMsarecertainlyexpectingittoresultinincreasedleverageforthem,andagreaterabilitytoforcetechnologyandpriceconcessionsfromtheirsupplybase.Furthermore,many,althoughnotall,ofthesehighvolumeplatformsalsorequireglobalsourcing.Meetingthevolumedemandsofaglobalplatform,aswellascustomizedmodulerequirements,